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2018 Blazing Five (Week 6)…
Sitting at a useless 12-12-1 in the B5 contest YTD. One good week can get the ball rolling. A lot of big Vegas line discrepancies to work with this week. Hopefully, we can kick a 4-1 or better record this week and start marching towards 60% and get away from 50% for the contest.
Contest Records ATS thru Week 5:
45-28-5 = Savage
43-30-5 = Katz
40-33-5 = Skol
40-33-5 = Rabbitt
35-38-5 = RC
*8-5-1 when group is in 5-0 agreement…WAS, CLE, CHI and SEA so far in Week 6 drawing 5-0 agreement
17-7-1 = Katz
14-8-3 = Savage
14-10-1 = Colin Cowherd
13-11-1 = Skolman
12-12-1 = RC
10-13-2 = Rabbitt
*7-2 When 3 or more in group agree on a B5…WAS and CHI fall into that category Week 6
ARI at MIN (-10.0)
The Computer Says: MIN by 27.1 (17.1 point spread differential)
The Computer sees a total blowout at Minnesota, and we’re so glad the line dropped from 10.5 to 10.0. Minnesota is so obviously better than Arizona…now, they just have to cover the 10. The trend of the last three weeks shows ARI keeping games close or winning but they’ve also shown that was a stretch against struggling offenses. They can’t hang with the Vikings. The Cards are going to lose…the question is – will it be by 10+. The Computer absolutely thinks that’s the most likely outcome.
PIT at CIN (2.0)
The Computer Says: PIT by 10.5 (12.5 point spread differential)
This one has the most indicators of the best bet this week. Cincy has been living lucky and the Steelers tend to rise up when they need to. Cincy’s internal numbers are of a 2-3 team, not a 4-1. The Steelers have more firepower and take down Cincy outright here.
IND (+2.5) over NYJ
The Computer says IND by 6.3
The Colts have a bunch of injuries, but they are used to that (and playing well despite it) and the Jets’ injury list may be worse – Two CBs likely out and could be down Isaiah Crowell as well. The Colts are the better team and get points and the hidden X-factor might Quincy Enunwa hiding a hand injury that reduces his effect on the game…the Jets’ best offensive weapon.
CHI (-3.5) over MIA
The Computer says CHI by 12.3
You get the better offense and defense with the Bears…the downside is a week off and heading to Miami, where road teams tend to struggle because of the Miami nightlife leading into it. The Bears are just too good up and down the roster to lose to Miami. If they’re a top team they have to win games like this.
GB (-9.5) over SF
The Computer says GB by 17.7
I get GB at home on MNF against tattered San Francisco? I like it. The Rodgers knee news dropped this line under 10.0, so it pushed it to my #5 of the Blazing Five. The hidden opportunities here are a rising Packers defense vs. a bad 49ers offense with O-Line injuries/issues.
Steelers +1.5 - I'm still not ready to buy the Bengals as a 9-10 win team, deserving of being a small home favorite against the Steelers. They've scored 3 defensive touchdowns already, and all 3 came at crucial points in games. Without that good fortune and the TD they scored in the final seconds to beat the Falcons, this team could be 2-3 (or even 1-4) and we'd probably see the Steelers as a 3 point road favorite.
Redskins -1 - You knew the Redskins were in trouble when the Saints marched down the field for a quick score on their opening possession last week. Alex Smith just isn't going to beat you when you force him to score 30+ points. Now playing at home against a mediocre Panthers offense, I think we'll see things go much better.
Jets -2.5 - Normally I'd want to fade the Jets after a big win, but I think they might be able to keep rolling against a still very injured Colts defense. When the Jets can run the ball like they did last week and in week 1, it takes all the pressure off of Darnold and keeps their defense fresh. I think the Colts are just too undermanned to stop their run game this week.
Jaguars -3 - I don't see the Jags defense losing two games in a row and I don't see Dallas scoring much on the Jags defense. All the Jags need to do is scheme up a few big plays on their first couple drives and let the defense do the rest.
Ravens -2.5 - There is somehow a lot of public money on the Titans, despite their loss to the Bills. I'm not sure why... this is the type of game the Ravens tend to win. Tennessee is nothing special on on either side of the ball, so Flacco will just have to make 2-3 big plays.
CHI -3.5...I swore to myself I wouldn’t be on the Bears this week. A blowout before a bye is a stay away. From what I hear it seems everyone “gets” the offense except Trubisky. I don’t say that as a hater...it’s just that he has the most responsibility and the least experience...fingers crossed the TB game is a sign he’s getting there. So I’m here because I’ve heard “value” on Miami 900 times this week because the look ahead was -1. Well that line was always a mistake in my opinion. Miami was 3-0 and their opponents had more 1st downs in each game. Miami has injuries on OL...against the Bears DL! What put my over the top...Bears are wearing their orange jerseys this week. (The one I’m buying if the Bears win the SB). I’ll take the loss if the Bears win by 3...just as good of a chance that they win by 20.
WAS -1...The Redskins made some mistakes on MNF and Alex Smith was very bad. However, I believe Car is overrated and Was is better than what a few mistakes and some bad officiating reduced them to on MNF.
TB +3...I think we get a Winston bump here. Coming off the bye I like his chances to look good vs the Atl D. I’m banking on the TB D showing some pride after the beat down in Chicago.
DEN +7...painful team to back, so it must be the right move? I’m putting my incomplete theory to the test here...Rams are dominating SB futures so there isn’t much of an appetite for betting against them. The Rams have a leaky run defense and I have to imagine Cooks and Kupp are not rushed back for a non-conference game. Also maybe snow...
NE -3.5...The Patriots have been home since returning from Detroit on 9/23, that was a while ago. Jacksonville has a sneaky good rushing day last week...spare me the Chiefs defense isn’t that bad talk...they are historically bad...worst team in terms of yardage against in the history of the NFL for the first 5 games of season...against Tom Brady...what could go wrong? Mahomes can be great and not come close to covering.