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Fantasy Football Metrics

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2018 Blazing Five (Week 7)

October 20, 2018

2018 Blazing Five (Week 7)

Sitting at a useless 13-15-2 in the B5 contest YTD. My top picks are working, but the next tier of B5 picks wipe them out.  Nine of my 15 B5 losses this year are teams that won but didn’t cover…I can kinda live with that. My computer is trying to pick winners/the better team and trying to claim the best lines…it’s finding winners, just not coverers.

My B5 bets on the underdog…9-3 ATS. Only one underdog this week, and I don’t really like it. I need a 4-1/5-0 week bad…but this doesn’t feel like it (which means it is).

When 3 or more in the group have the same B5 play, that pick is 8-3-0 ATS...we have a season high 4 in that agreement this week: JAC, DET, CHI, KC.

Blazing Five Through Week 6:

18-10-1 = Katz

18-9-3 = Savage

16-13-1 = Colin Cowherd

15-14-1 = Skolman

13-15-2 = RC

10-18-2 = Rabbitt

*8-3-0 when 3 or more in group agree on a B5…



CIN at KC (-6.0)

The Computer Says: KC by 22.1 (16.1 point spread differential)

Bet of the Year…?

My Computer models say that Cincy is one of the most overrated teams in the league, considering their 4-2 record. Their defense is allowing over 50%+ conversions on 3rd-downs, worst in the league. Kansas City is going to plant 40+ on them and Cincy won’t keep up. At KC…this is a dream.

HOU at JAC (-4.5)

The Computer Says: JAC by 14.4 (9.9 point spread differential)

I love the momentum here…everyone down on the Jags after the 40-7 smackdown last week, losers of the three of their last 4. Houston has escaped with three wins in a row last three weeks. This has all the makings of a ‘Jacksonville takes out frustrations’ on weak Houston moment.

I’m really starting to like this bet and have been adding positions to it as the line dropped to 4.5.

*I’m less confident in the rest of these top five picks. In reality, I will bet most all my budget on KC -6.0. My top bets have been winners for weeks and if three or more of our group takes a team in B5, it’s been a 70%+ winner ATS too…and the first three group submissions of B5 all had KC (and DET) in it.*

BUF at IND (-7.5)

The Computer Says: IND by 17.1 (9.6 point spread differential)

The Computer LOVES Indy, and I am worried it is just a statistically anomaly ruining our system. I had Computer swagger on the Colts vs. HOU and NYJ Weeks 4 and 6, and they got rocked early and scrambled back to a near win…but losing both bets.

I’m sitting this out, mostly, to see if this is real with Indy or not. But, I’ll take it in the B5 and put throwaway money on it. This feels too easy but I’ve been burned by Indy too much lately.

NE (-2.5) at CHI

The Computer Says: CHI by 6.2 (8.8 point spread differential)

I’m not touching this for real because Khalil Mack isn’t right, the line dropped to 2.5, I never bet against Brady if I can help it. The Computer likes the Bears here a lot, mostly because it hates the Patriots right now.

DET (-3.0) at MIA

The Computer Says: DET by 10.8 (7.8 point spread differential)

We like the Lions as an obvious pick here, but two weeks off for the Lions and at Miami where football players go to party and disappoint on Sunday…it’s not as obvious.



CHI     +2.5...I really hate when I pick a game and start with how I should know better (like I did with the Bears last week).  If we ignore that crazy game, bad spot, QB change, melting in the heat fiasco for a moment we can focus on how this spot is actually good for the Bears.  They have been really good at home for a few years now.  Yes Mack has an ankle but there are a lot of playmakers on that defense and they are all hungry to make up for their effort last week.  The Pats have played 3-0 Miami, 5-0 KC and have a division game on deck (even if it is only Buffalo). Pats may be look ahead proof but this is the least important game left on their schedule on a short week where Nagy likely consulted with Andy Reid on game plans.  Mitch vs Belichick doesn’t excite me but the Pats D was lit up by Bortles so here goes nothing.

JAC     -4.5
...I like the spot here...it feels like Jacksonville could really lay it on the Texans.  I’m rolling with the belief that the egg they laid in Dallas was because they were looking ahead?  Jaguars are due to go nuclear on someone and I think they have the perfect opponent.  Hoping so...

NO -2.5...I really like the Ravens this year as the fly in the ointment in the AFC...if I’m right about this game, I’ll look at an AFC futures price on Bal after.  However I’m going to go against myself and roll with the Saints who I thought going into the season would be the best team.  I believe the missing element to their defense has been Mark Ingram.  Possessing the ball was the biggest difference between Saints D last year and the disaster they were at the start.  Ravens have a tough home field but I think the Saints can get the job done.

WAS -1...Dallas doesn’t impress me much and they are coming off the game on their lives...going against the strong series history here I think Washington keeps pace as the sneaky good team in the NFC East.

NYG +4...I picked Eli up in a few leagues so I’m already invested...why not go “all in”.  I have to take the points with the better defense.  Engram might be back so that would be the cherry on top.  The Eagles looked awesome last week and we’re due to look like that...I don’t blame Eli or the Giants for losing there.  At Atlanta is not a hard place to play and we get extra rest...



Browns +3.5 (best bet) - You're getting the better QB, the better defense, and 3.5 points with the Browns this week. They're better than they played against the Chargers - Mayfield was constantly under pressure, the WR's dropped a few key passes, and Tyrell Williams made an incredible catch that swung the momentum of the game. I think Hyde being gone might be a good thing, he doesn't really fit with Mayfield. They're better off with the pairing of a home run hitter like Chubb and a receiving back like Duke Johnson.

Jaguars -4.5 - I thought the Jags would show up last week after being embarrassed in week 5, instead they got embarrassed again. Now coming home after two straight duds, you're bound to get a better effort. If they can't win this game by a TD or more they're in serious trouble.

Jets +3.5 - For anyone that watched the Cardinals on TNF last night, just consider the fact that the Vikings were only to beat them by 10 in Minnesota. And that's despite David Johnson losing a fumble on his own 25 yard line and later getting stuffed on a 4th and goal from the 1 yard line. The Vikings just aren't playing good enough football to warrant being a 3.5 point road favorite to an OK team.

Saints +2.5 - Much like last week was the type of game Baltimore wins, this is the type of game they lose.  With an extra week to prepare, I think the Saints can turn this into a shootout and force Flacco to try to outplay Brees.

Falcons -4 - The Falcons defense has been roasted the last 4 weeks, but all 4 of those games have been against top 10 offenses. I don't think the Giants defense is particularly good or particularly motivated, so I think Matt Ryan will be able to make some big downfield throws while Eli continues to show us why he should have retired after last season.























About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>