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2018 Blazing Five (Week 9)
4-1 last week in the B5, my best week of the season…finally…after a bunch of 3-2/2-3 weeks we’re starting to breakthrough a bit. I’m nervous about this week’s games. I’m not in love with any. I will only place small ‘fun’ money on any of them.
The one I’m most intrigued by is LAC at SEA – The Computer is getting hot for Seattle and has not been hot for LAC all season. If the Computer hits a TB and SEA covers/wins (odd-ball picks to me, but I’m trusting The Computer), I’ll be very pleased with it.
You’re better off considering Katz and Savage’s B5s when making your own bets – both have been 60%+ pretty much all year.
Even better…the 70.6% winning percentage achieved when 3 or more of our five-person group agree on a B5 pick. 2-0 last week with ARI and IND.
This week, so far: DEN and PIT have 3-person consensus.
Blazing Five Through Week 8:
23-15-2 = Katz
23-14-3 = Savage
23-16-1 = Colin Cowherd
22-17-1 = Skolman
20-18-2 = RC
18-20-2 = Rabbitt
*12-5-0 ATS when 3 or more in group agree on a B5…
KC (-8.5) at CLE
The Computer Says: KC by 18.1 (9.6 point spread differential)
I don’t love betting against a coaching change like this but the move to Gregg Williams cannot be good…not enough to overcome this juggernaut.
ATL at WAS (-1.5)
The Computer Says: WAS by 11.0 (9.5 point spread differential)
The Computer has loved this game from the jump. Atlanta outdoors with their terrible defense, non-quality wins, and Washington getting Quinton Dunbar back – I ride with surging Washington.
TB at CAR (-6.5)
The Computer Says: CAR by 0.2 (6.3 point spread differential)
The Computer has respect for Tampa Bay, and I’m not sure why. It thinks it sees something here even before the Winston benching but especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick…it takes the points.
HOU at DEN (-1.0)
The Computer Says: DEN by 7.3 (6.3 point spread differential)
The Computer kept liking this all week. Bad Houston O-Line vs. high-pressure Denver D-front...at Denver. This game is made for Denver to win. The Texans have been living with the angels for weeks, they’re due to get clipped.
LAC at SEA (P)
The Computer Says: SEA by 7.1 (7.1 point spread differential)
I think I’m the only who likes/loves Seattle here, which is strange because of been anti-Seattle for years. I think they’re a better version of Green Bay – Russell Wilson is like having Rodgers-Brady, he can ‘will’ a team to victory but gets none of the credit because he’s not as flashy a passer. Seattle wins and sets off the Wilson for MVP talk.
KC -8.5...I want to fade KC so bad...but not as bad as I want to fade Gregg Williams. I normally like the coaching change bump...the Browns are not normal.
PIT +3...I think it’s going to be a popular pick but I like it. Pit brings a running game and some defense on the road...if you need Ty Montgomery you’re sending me a “sell” signal.
BUF +10...it pains me to write this but my counter argument to anyone who says “Peterman” is “Trubisky”. Painful because I’m so hopefully but game after game he struggles to complete a forward pass. Took a quick peek and the Bills have been fine/good the game after losing to the Pats at home so no let down.
LAC +1...Plenty on this in the individual game write ups..
NO +1...I bet the Saints to win the NFC and SB before last week because I think they are the sneaky best team. This is the best home field advantage this week by many miles.
ATL +1.5. Best Bet
I love the Falcons in this spot coming off a bye to face an offensively challenged Redskins team. They can't keep riding Adrian Peterson to wins, right?
This line really couldn't be high enough. We get one last Nate Peterman Experience. I actually think Matt Barkley, who has been with the team all of 5 days, gets into this game.
Deshaun Watson is not throwing five touchdowns this week. He may not throw any. This is such a bad spot for the Texans in Denver and without Will Fuller.
No complex analysis here. I don't think the Steelers get swept by the Ravens.
Two words: Brock Osweiler
Saints +1 - I don't understand the lack of respect for the Saints here. Since their sluggish start in weeks 1 and 2, they've been the best team in football. They're 4-0 on the road and only one of those games (the Giants) was against a bad team. Depending on which measurement you use, they've played the toughest schedule in the league so far. Now they get to come home, where they were last seen annihilating the Redskins. The Rams are very good, but they've struggled the last few weeks and have been lucky to stay undefeated. I think the Saints might be the better team, they're more battle tested, and they're at home.
Steelers +3 - I still don't understand how the Ravens beat Pittsburgh so easily a few weeks ago. Regardless, I don't think it happens again. Pittsburgh has been peaking on both sides of the ball at the same time the Ravens have more or less fallen apart. You're getting a deal with the Steelers at +3.
Broncos -1 - Denver has played pretty solid the last 3 weeks - close losses to the Rams and Chiefs and the domination of the Cardinals in Arizona. They're generally a solid home team, and they absolutely need this game to stay in the playoff race. Houston is an OK team, but they might be on the most fraudulent 5 game winning streak in the history of football.
Titans +5.5 - Dallas and Tennessee have played 14 combined games, only 4 have been decided by more than 7 points and only 6 have been decided by more than 3. I think Dallas is the better team and is likely to win this game, but I think this will be decided by less than a TD.
Falcons +1.5 - Washington is overrated and is well overdue to drop a game. Atlanta off the bye, needing a win to stay in the playoff race... I feel like I've already seen the Falcons win this 31-17.