Brought to you by - Total Football Advisors, LLC
2018 Handicapping Chat: Week 2 -- Giants at Cowboys (-3.0)
RC: The group is split 3-2 for DAL on this one. No one has it in their Blazing Five and Katz is playing the Giants +3.0 to reverse jinx it for Dallas. Anyone playing this for real at all? Assuming the Redskins defeat Indy and the Eagles beat TB...it sends both NFC East leaders to 2-0. The loser of this game goes to 0-2 and is in a LOT OF TROUBLE, and Katz may lose his mind.
I will say this -- if the Giants lose this game, they are TOAST. At HOU, NO, at CAR, PHI, at ATL, WAS, BYE. The Giants very well could be staring down 2-6/1-7/0-8 by their BYE week if they lose this game.
Rabbitt: my b-5 this week is more like a b-3. This game was in the conversation for one of the other two games. The giants just dont seem good. The cowboys are looked at as a joke right now. If I have a good betting day I will bet the nightcap.
Katz: I can't be objective on this because of how bad Dallas looked last week. I have no idea what Jason Garrett and Scott Linehan are doing. I found this stat on twitter (sorry, can't remember where) and put it in my FFToday matchup preview on this game - In 2017, the league average in runs against stacked boxes per game was 38.7%. Putting aside how egregious it is that NFL head coaches run the ball against stacked boxes at all, let alone more than a third of the time, the Cowboys did it 53.3% of the time last week. This is the least imaginative offense possible. I'm all in on the Cowboys defense as legit. RC will be proven correct on that one. But how is this team going to score points?
RC: The neutralizer, if it it can really/fully happen, is Dallas can become mini-Jacksonville. Great D-Line, great LB with Sean Lee playing/coaching, Byron Jones a possible shutdown corner, good depth at DB, and everyone knows you're running the ball (like I'm sure JAX has high %'s on too). In this case, Eli Manning is going to prove to be the problem, not Garrett, or anything else. If you can get to Eli, he's usually dead.
He's 2-16 the last 18 games he's been sacked 3 or more times (24 TDs/19 INTs). 6-27 since 2010 season with 3 or more sacks. He sucks under pressure regular season (career 4-1 in the playoffs when sacked 3 or more times). Of course, in the 2-16 last 18 times...Dallas is a team he beat (2016).
If Dallas cranks the pressure (and they have the horses to do so), then they can win this. Also helping...Saquon Barkley's Melvin Gordon act -- Jacksonville had 9.5 TFLs in Week 1, most of them catching Barkley dancing in the backfield. Lots of 2nd and long, 3rd and long for the Dallas front to tee off on.
I think Dallas, at home, using Gallup and Tavon Austin more vs. Terr Williams and DThomp can win a 20-14 type game here. Possibly getting a defensive score of a strip sack/fumble for a 24+ to 10-14 type score.
Skol: In a word, yuck. As always I’m curious to see where the line moves...(agree with the total dropping) it seems like people are more willing to forgive the Giants loss at home to Jax than Dal losing at Car. I picked Dal last week and I can see a scenario where the offense isn’t horrible but I’m not sure Linehan does. Weak home field advantage doesn’t do much for me. I picked the Giants because we have to make a pick on all games and I took the points is a division rivalry. I think when I add it all up it’s a coin toss and the universe might not be done punishing the Cowboys for cutting Bailey. As of now my plan is to play the alternate under (not out yet but guessing under 34.5 +200)...
Savage: This was close to being a blazing 5 pick and I'd consider a real bet on Dallas if this dropped below 3. The Cowboys were the better team last year and they were lined higher in this year's season win totals. I think lining this at 3 is a bit of an overreaction to week 1.
The Cowboys offense is not as bad as it looked in week 1. Carolina has a good defense and that was Dak's first game with basically a brand new group of receivers (part of the reason I liked Carolina in that game). The pass game should improve as they get more time together and they should have a little more success running the ball against this Giants defense.
Rabbitt: Savage said all the things I feel about this game better than i could.
Katz: I'm with Skol on this one being low scoring and ugly. The days of the Romo-Eli shootouts are long gone. I still have no confidence in my team though. Normally, I would be reminding Giant fans that the Cowboys always win this game, but I'm so jaded from last week's debacle.