Brought to you by - Total Football Advisors, LLC
2018 Sunday Week 13 -- Open Thread/Notes
So many things happening in a whirlwind Sunday morning…news and notes and rumors coming from all angles, plus the Video Q&A show 11-1pmET – it’s hard to communicate everything pre-kickoff.
With that in mind, I’m going to open up this post and add to it as I get info or a thought or whatever – notes before kickoff, trends happening on the Video Q&A, breaking betting lines, etc. Whatever I want to note and I’ll clearly mark it with the times so you can see what and when. God Bless us one and all…
*moving fast, forgive typos
**Refresh page for the latest notes (see show title for last post)
12:23pmET: Running Video Show Notes...
-- Josh Adams more trust than not, but have an emergency plan just in case.
-- DJ or M Mack? Pick 'em. Pros and cons. Drake and Cohen in PPR options to play over them as well.
-- Brate a solid play this week. Kittle hard to bench but a bad QB and bad matchup he's dealing with.
-- I saw Mitchell Trubisky throwing pregame...he looks fine. He might even be active in case of emergency, but I think CHI is looking ahead to Wk14 vs. LAR to get him 100% from his bruised shoulder.
-- I saw another report that Steve Wilks in in trouble...that story is gathering steam, as I discussed last week talking to some contacts.
10:05amET: Vegas update...
-- Indy game holding to -4.0...waiting for glorious (potential) news Jalen Ramsey is out. Still an unknown, but I'm led to believe he will be active.
-- ATL has gone from -1.0 to -2.5 the last 48 hours over BAL
-- GB down to -13.5...weather going to drive that to -13.0 potentially.
-- Seattle down to -9.5 over SF...I like that a lot for SEA
-- TEN has raced from -7.5 to -9.5 on the McCown starting news. Not interested, but I'd take those points.
-- Word from Philly that an Eagles' player complained to a reporter that the Eagles offensive problem is that Carson Wentz is targeting Zach Ertz too much...the kind of thing that will get blown up, debated, and be 'a thing' for a moment. Does Wentz get effected by the noise and tamper down the Ertz targets today? Something to watch.
-- Reportedly there is a 2nd incident involving Kareem Hunt punching a man in an incident...so, there is a gathering wave of info about to hit on Hunt -- it may be the reason why KC acted so swiftly...the video PLUS they know a lot more about Hunt than anyone, and it may not be good/worth bothering with going to the mat for him.
I'd argue...'it's a running back' and Spencer Ware will do fine, which means Hunt wasn't all that awesome/critical...and that some sucker team (like the Jets or Raiders) will chase Hunt for 2019 and find out he's 'OK' not a perceived superstar the KC offense has made him.
9:26amET: Random notes...
-- Josh Adams suddenly questionable. A hip issue that happened last practice. A late notice injury and not a lot of info on it. We're all probably stuck waiting for better info until AFTER the 1pmET kickoffs. I'm trying to find out more info, but it forces you to go elsewhere if you have legit options.
If you want to buy more time and want to hold an emergency player for tomorrow in case it's no good for Adams...
Corey Clement is the guy of Adams is out. Don't forget Chris Thompson is back (PPR) this game in a MUST win.
Darren Sproles is not a huge option, and is truly 50-50 to play. Probably forced a bit if Adams is down but held back if Adams is fine.
-- First stadium look-in...very wet and kinda cold in Pittsburgh (v. LAC)...but expected rain gone by tonight's (SNF kickoff)
CHI-NYG, MIN-NE are both expected to have light rain (50% chance +/-) with temps in the low 50's (feels like low 50s, not a ton of wind chill)
More issue is in Green Bay...35 +/- degrees, 50-60% chance of rain/snow mix with higher winds 15MPH for ARI-GB. Wind chill taking it into the 20s for 'feel'. The messy game of Week 13.
Breezy (15mph+) for CAR-TB but the rain, right now, is expected not to be a factor...just the wind.
9:00amET: Opening thought...
-- Something important to consider...especially if you own Tyreek Hill?
What if Tyreek hill goes down?
Hold up. Breathe...get a paper bag if you need to. You, OK? Alright...
You know how Sammy Watkins is out with a foot injury again, right? That's an injury in Week 9, that kept him out Week 10, and was supposedly back for Week 11 but played 3 snaps and had to leave the (Rams) game for good. Week 12 bye to rest. Week 13...still not practicing, not playing this week. Five weeks and still out. It's not out of the question Watkins is seriously hurt (again), and could miss more weeks or the rest of the season. At least, the thought is out there.
If Watkins is gone, then we shift to Chris Conley as the new #2-ish WR. In a temp situation, I've projected Conley staying in his same dull role and Demarcus Robinson getting extra run. The more Watkins misses time, the more Conley has to step up/change his role due to his experience and time with the #1s.
Also, remember Conley is a physical freak. He should've been better than this, for fantasy. He's been lost in Tyreek's afterglow and has done a nice job blocking more than being a receiving threat. However, he does have more to give. He has higher-end talent. He did have 2 TDs in the MNF explosion game vs. the Rams.
I say all that to say...if Watkins goes on I.R. -- what happens to your Tyreek...if Hill goes down with a sprain or whatever? Chris Conley is suddenly VERY important.
Should you consider putting Conley (not Sutton, David Moore, a 5th WR, a long-shot handcuff RB, etc.) on your last redraft roster spot...or consider putting Conley there now -- as a possibly flex play this week AND as Tyreek insurance in case Watkins is done?
Which also makes him an interesting gamble to sit on if you don't have Tyreek in a worst case sc.
Just something to think about.