Brought to you by - Total Football Advisors, LLC
2018 Sunday Week 16 -- Open Thread/Notes
So many things happening in a whirlwind Sunday morning…news and notes and rumors coming from all angles, plus the Video Q&A show 11-1pmET – it’s hard to communicate everything pre-kickoff.
With that in mind, I’m going to open up this post and add to it as I get info or a thought or whatever – notes before kickoff, trends happening on the Video Q&A, breaking betting lines, etc. Whatever I want to note and I’ll clearly mark it with the times so you can see what and when. God Bless us one and all…
*moving fast, forgive typos
**Refresh page for the latest notes (see show title for last post)
12:28pmET: Video Show notes...
-- Jamaal Williams, Damnien Williams legit for Gurley replacement for touch counts and less injury risk. Jaylen and Marlon a little less confident but strong projections to beat/battle hampered Gurley.
10:14amET: Todd Gurley...taking it down to the wire and then grabbing whatever RB if you're forced -- here are some options...
Jalen Richard on MNF in PPR...usually gets 4-5-6 catches and could pop one
Mike Davis on SNF...he had 8 catches last week
C.J. Anderson, likely gone, is more obvious over John Kelly. I'm not sure I'd use Kelly if he was announced as starter with Gurley out...unless I had no other options.
Can Goff go off if Gurley out, having to pass a lot more? Maybe...Arizona is top 5 best defense in pass yards allowed and top 10 in least pass TDs allowed. Arizona is not a rollover pass D, but the Rams (the old Rams) should be fine. If Patrick Peterson was inactive it changes Goff's game, but we won't know that until 3pmET+.
9:38amET: David Johnson's production with Byron Leftwich...
72.6 yards rushing per game...pushed by 137 yards v. OAK...30-70 most games.
34.6 yards rec. per game...helped by that sweet 40-yard catch/bomb last week
FF PPG/PPR by game, last 7 games (in order from Leftwich's debut)...14, 26, 16, 10, 8, 14, 19
It's ugly looking, but because of the volume...DJ puts up solid numbers every week. Throw out the high and low, and DJ is always around 10-15 for PPR. He might not be obvious for a big game anymore, but he won't kill you.
Biggest worry Week 16...Rams get up big and DJ sits too much.
9:29amET: Vegas check...
-- The Browns up to -10.0 now...that's pretty salty. I wouldn't touch that line.
-- Saints up to -6.5 from -6.0. The Steelers getting 6+? Wow. In amust win with the Ravens winning yesterday.
-- KC down to -2.0 at Seattle...KC got punished for losing in a fluky way last week, just like LAC got too much love for the win (and see what happened to them this week).
9:17amET: Weather check.
Nothing terrible, but...
DEN-OAK...currently 40-50%+ chance of rain during the game...unusual for Raiders. That forecast may change on a dime.
KC-SEA...currently 50-60%+ chance of rain during the game. It feels like rain is following Patrick Mahomes. Just caps the upside for the offense.
The two games in the 30s for temps are clear, dry, not windy: CIN at CLE, BUF at NE
I don't see any major weather items besides SEA-KC upside gets a bit limited on the big upside for passing...and wants the teams to run a little more (SEA always wants to run).
8:44amET: Early notes from injury-land...
-- I think L. Blount will be out and Zach Zenner will then be a solid RB2 candidate. You can run on MIN and ZZ is playing for his NFL life. He can see 20+ touches with no Blount, but probably 11-16 if Blount is there (because the Lions' OC is a moron).
-- DeAndre Hopkins...game-time-decision, and I believe he will play but be touch & go.
-- Alfred Blue is an RB2 candidate, not my favorite, but mild hope (with Miller out)...but I'll be nervous if D'Onta Foreman is active. if Foreman inactive...I like Blue OK.
-- Julio Jones? I am led to believe he will be out today. Very sketchy play if he does start.
-- Todd Gurley? My current odds...
55% = Inactive
35% = Active, plays limited snaps
10% = Active, plays a bunch until game out of hand
-- Most FFM-based teams did not have Mike Williams, Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon, Derrick Henry, Gus Edwards, Lamar Jackson, Corey Davis -- so many of us are feeling good/great right now.
Hey..."Don't judge the end by the beginning."
This sad start but wild finish worked for many of us last week, it has reversed on some of our opponents having the weak start this week/start. Play smart today. Assume the QB plague is taking your QB in half...like Rivers-LJax-Mariota.