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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2018 Sunday Week 7 -- Open Thread/Notes (12:26pmET)

October 21, 2018

2018 Sunday Week 7 -- Open Thread/Notes

So many things happening in a whirlwind Sunday morning…news and notes and rumors coming from all angles, plus the Video Q&A show 11-1pmET – it’s hard to communicate everything pre-kickoff.

With that in mind, I’m going to open up this post and add to it as I get info or a thought or whatever – notes before kickoff, trends happening on the Video Q&A, breaking betting lines, etc. Whatever I want to note and I’ll clearly mark it with the times so you can see what and when. God Bless us one and all…

*moving fast, forgive typos

**Refresh page for the latest notes (see show title for last post)


Running theme notes from the video show...

-- Evan Engram fine for MNF, but CJU fine too in a great matchup. You can decide that later today.

-- Nick Chubb in a good spot for touches, but he's not much PPR and TB decent run defense (and no pass defense). Duke Johnson could have a mild shock game.

-- Baker Mayfield...great matchup and TB without two top pass rushers

-- Jordan Howard I don't trust until he proves me wrong.


-- Stop me if you've heard this one before...an NFL 'insider' NOW says that the Steelers believe Le'Veon Bell will return Week 9. The only prediction more wrong than the analysts/insiders and their 'sources' has been the Steelers executives 'said'/believe (or supposed rumors of what they've believed).

Le'Veon Bell is coming back one minute/day before the deadline (11/13)...which is the Mon/Tue after Week 10's games. Conner is good Weeks 8-9-10 for sure.

I suspect Bell will be inactive Week 11/that week's game...and then out on the commissioner exempt list for Weeks 12-13 (the max is 2 weeks) -- Meaning Conner is good Weeks 8-13.

I would guess Bell inactive the rest of the season unless he's needed due to Conner injury...and then not even sure that would work for Bell to be active.

All this...unless Bell is traded (highly unlikely because no one else wants him laying out on them).


-- No Richard Sherman (likely)...I'll take Goff + Cooks + Woods + the Rams -9.0


Handicapping notes...

-- T.J. Lang back helps me like the Lions -3.0 at MIA a bit better

-- Indy down to -7.0, if it goes -6.5, I'll buy a small taste

-- Dallas is not a 1 point favorite over Washington. People in love with Dallas's win last week makes me take, not bet, the Redskins playing against the public too in love with what they saw last week.

-- The MNF line has dropped from -5.5 ATL to -4.0 NYG. I'm not touching it.

-- CHI line down to NE -2.0. No Gronk, colder weather...not a fan of the Pats to begin with. I just wish I knew how good K Mack was.


-- Carlos Hyde can certainly take some basic carries...enough so that you have to be scared to use T.J. Yeldon and Jamaal Charles is a near zero.

-- Melvin Gordon out, Austin Ekeler will get a bump in carries but Detrez Newsome may get a surprising amount of work over Justin Jackson

-- No serious weather issues this morning. CAR at PHI is expected to be extra breezy (15mph+ wind), that's about it.

-- Sean Lee is good-to-go. The hot Dallas DST is 100% and faces Washington with them missing Chris Thompson and two starting WRs.

-- T.J. Lang/OL Detroit back this week is a big deal for the Lions in general.

-- Gronk is not totally ruled out...possible shock last second 'plays'. No Jacob Hollister, so Dwayne Allen is all they have behind him.

-- Houston missing a top OL...and Deshaun Watson is already sacked a ton...the Jags should have a killer game this week.


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>