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2018 Week 10 Preview: Ross Jacobs' Notes
Ross Jacobs is a budding football analyst/scout and a long-time friend of FFM. He’s been working on a project all season watching/studying all the games/studying the line play as a key indicator for handicapping and fantasy play.
Weekly, he’s been sharing his notes on each game with me…what he saw with the games that just happened and what he sees coming up with the games about to play.
I’ve enjoyed reading his study notes on the games all season and asked him if I could share them with the FFM audience, and he was happy to. So, please enjoy Ross’s takes on the games more from a line of scrimmage/O-Line standpoint but with an overall view of seeing all these teams and taking notes for data analysis all season.
These are his notes for the upcoming week's games…
*Forgive typos, just notes transcribed.
Week 10 Preview:
Bills +7 at Jets
I liked this line so much better at 6.5, but now McCown is starting and it rightfully jumped up to 7. This is an entirely new team with Darnold sidelined, and I hope I can finally cash in on this Jets team I keep supporting wrongly week after week. I still think the Bills are the worst team in the league, and the Jets aren't bad at all sans Darnold. Even giving up 7 I like the Jets for my Blazing Five. If you can get -6.5 then it's favorite bet of the week time.
Falcons -6 at Browns
The Falcons beat the lowly Bucs, Giants, and injury ravaged Redskins and now suddenly we're supposed to forget that they've sucked most of the year? I don't think so. I know I say I love the Browns potential every week and I keep getting burned, but they've played some pretty good teams along the way, and Atlanta is not a good team. I think these two are closer to even than most people know, and in that situation I'll take the points all day long and pray for some good luck. Browns make Blazing Five number two.
Saints -5.5 at Bengals
The absence of AJ Green changes the complexion of this line. If Green was healthy I would definitely be on the side of the Bengals to pull a decent upset, but without him I don't know if this Bengals team has enough juice to pull it out. The Saints are very good not invincible, but this is the wrong week for the Bengals to lose their best offensive player. Unless the Saints have a defensive meltdown or Joe Mixon goes nuts I don't see how the Bengals pull this off. Give me the Saints.
Washington +3 at Buccaneers
I can't touch this line. The metrics are screaming for the Redskins, but that's with a healthy offensive line which they no longer have. Those three injuries massively change this outlook which is why the Bucs are favorites here. As I've mentioned before you never know which Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to show up. He could throw 4 TD's or 4 INT's and nobody would be surprised. I can't bet on a game with that much uncertainty. I'll tepidly take the Redskins to cover even with the injuries just because I like getting points and the Bucs are so unpredictable, but I have less than zero confidence in that prediction. You couldn't pay me to bet on this game.
Patriots -6.5 at Titans
Another game I want no piece of. The Patriots look weaker than they have in years, and the Titans somehow keep finding a way. I still think the Titans are average and not actually good though so I'll bet on Belichick to find a way, but the Titans do have a defense that could give Brady problems. Nothing is assured.
Dolphins +9.5 at Packers
I don't like the Packers at all this year as I think I've made clear in prior weeks, but I really don't like the Dolphins and Brock Osweiler going into frigid Green Bay to face an angry Aaron Rodgers. I wouldn't bet this hard because it's a lot of points for a not-great Packers team to give up to a scrappy Dolphins squad, but I'm still riding Packers this week.
Jaguars +3 at Colts
I absolutely love the Colts here which means I just cursed them to blow this. The Colts have been downright impressive most of the year all things considered, but they have struggled the past couple. The Jaguars on the other hand are falling apart, and I'm not sure even the return of Fournette can save them. You never know from week to week, and storylines can chagne awful fast, but my formulas think the Colts can cover this easily. Colts into the Blazing Five.
Lions +6.5 at Bears
I'm sorry RC, but I'm not buying the narrative that the Lions are falling apart. I know they've had a rough couple of weeks, but I think it's been somewhat a fluke. The Vikings had the better gameplan, but Detroit is not without talent. They can play. The Bears get Khalil Mack back this week, and that cannot be underestimated, but Mack was struggling with this injury for two games prior to sitting out and it's no guarantee he'll be 100% here. If Mack was out this would be in my Blazing Five, but since he's back I'll settle for just taking the Lions and the points.
Cardinals +16.5 at Chiefs
I'm not going to repeat my favorite phrase for the year. Everyone knows it by now. I'll settle for saying I'll take the Chiefs because I just don't see a reasonable path that keeps the Cardinals in this game. I'm scared, but I'll put the Chiefs in the Blazing Five because I trust them to take care of business more than I trust the Chargers.
Chargers -10 at Raiders
Speaking of the Chokers...ahem Chargers...they get a seemingly dying team in the Raiders this week. Now we all know I'm not buying this Chargers Superbowl nonsense because they are playing an absolutely pathetic schedule, but you've got to think they can roll the Raiders right? Right? I'll take the Chargers, but man I am not happy about it.
Seahawks +9.5 at Rams
I warned against a Seattle uprising last time they played the Rams (although I still sided wrongly with the Rams), and I'm going to side with the Rams again here. They haven't been playing the best recently, and it was always a good possibly they would fall to the second best NFC team, but the Seahawks are not in their class plain and simple. Russell kept the Seahawks in it almost by himself last time, but I think Aaron Donald is going to be living in Russell's lap this week, and the Rams are not going to be stopped on offense again. I wouldn't be surprised if we see more Jared Goff and less Todd Gurley this week and the Rams roll Seattle hard. Rams into the Blazing Five.
Cowboys +7 at Eagles
I am so tempted to take the Cowboys off a loss, but as I've been howling all year, they suck. The Eagles aren't great, but I think they are starting to figure something out and if they win big this week Jason Garrett might not survive. I'm not super confident in it, but I want in on Jason Garrett's Charge of the Light Brigade this week.
Giants +3 at 49'ers
Ok Nick Mullens you got me. I dare you to do it again. You got lucky to face arguably the league's worst team last week and this week isn't much better, but surely the Giants can at least attempt to play defense unlike that embarrassment the Raiders fielded last week. I just can't bet on Mullens to cover this no matter how bad the Giants are, so if I lose again sue me. Anyone but Eli and the Giants and this would be in the Blazing Five, but New York doesn't deserve that kind of respect so I'll settle for just taking the Giants and the points.