2018 Week 13 Preview: Ross Jacobs' Notes
Ross Jacobs is a budding football analyst/scout and a long-time friend of FFM. He’s been working on a project all season watching/studying all the games/studying the line play as a key indicator for handicapping and fantasy play.
Weekly, he’s been sharing his notes on each game with me…what he saw with the games that just happened and what he sees coming up with the games about to play.
I’ve enjoyed reading his study notes on the games all season and asked him if I could share them with the FFM audience, and he was happy to. So, please enjoy Ross’s takes on the games more from a line of scrimmage/O-Line standpoint but with an overall view of seeing all these teams and taking notes for data analysis all season.
These are his notes for the upcoming week's games…
*Forgive typos, just notes transcribed.
Week 13 Preview:
Colts -4 at Jaguars
My favorite bet of the week. The Jaguars have nothing for the Colts and their offensive line. Luck should have no problems scoring at will, and the Indy defense could be quite suffocating for a gutted Jacksonville line. Easy Blazing Five pick.
Chargers +3.5 at Steelers
The Steelers had a little letdown last week, but make no mistake the Chargers are not on their level. I expect James Conner to get more work behind a dominant Steelers line and Pittsburgh's defense to harass Rivers just enough to keep him off-balance. Second Blazing Five.
Browns +5 at Texans
I absolutely believe the Browns are the better team and can win this straight up. I know I pick against the Texans every week, but they have been playing better and better behind Baker Mayfield's brilliancy. This should be the week Houston's horrendous offensive line finally does them in. Blazing Five number 3.
Chiefs -14 at Raiders
We all know I hate laying this many points, but how on earth does Oakland hang here? The Chiefs didn't get worse for releasing Hunt, they got even better. The Chiefs may set an NFL record for points here. 50 would not shock me in the least. Blazing Five number 4.
Vikings +5 at Patriots
Could the Vikings rise up and beat the Patriots? Sure. But everything I'm seeing says its not likely. The Vikings really haven't played great competition, and the cracks are showing. Belichick should be able to out gameplan Zimmer any day of the week. Final Blazing Five pick.
Panthers -3 at Buccaneers
The Bucs can't stop anyone, but lately neither can the Panthers. I'm banking on them getting their act together here and pulling out the win. Panthers to cover.
Ravens +2.5 at Falcons
I'm confused as to how the Falcons are the favorite. What exactly have they done to deserve this? I'll be surprised if the Falcons can get to 20 on this defense, and Lamar should be able to scrape together more than that on a weak Atlanta defense.
Bills +3.5 at Dolphins
I could see the Bills staying within 3, but I just don't think much of them at all this year. I know they've pulled out a few games somehow, but the QB play is as bad as I've ever seen. I just can't take them here even though I know the Dolphins aren't very good either. Josh Allen will get pressured into a few too many mistakes by an underrated Miami front seven.
Bears -3.5 at Giants
I don't care if the Bears are without Trubisky, they are still at least a TD better than the Giants. Anything can happen, but this was close to being in my Blazing Five. The Bears are simply better everywhere except WR, and that means jack squat since Eli can't get them the ball. I think this is Barkley's lowest output game all year, and I won't be surprised if the Bears get a pick 6 off a swing pass to the rookie RB.
Broncos -5 at Bengals
The Denver defense has been rising, and Driskel isn't going to enjoy getting smashed into the ground by Von Miller. I could see the Bengals running for 200 yards between Mixon and Driskel and just playing keepaway from the Broncos offense, but more likely I think is that Marvin Lewis does nothing creative and tries to win as if he had Dalton back there. I like the Broncos to cover.
Rams -10 at Lions
There's nothing to say here that everyone doesn't already know. Goff + Donald = lots of wins. The Lions won't be able to get to Goff and Donald is going to make life absolute hell for Stafford since the Lions offensive line decided to do a 180 a few weeks back. They have seriously been bad, and while you can get away with that against the Panthers, you most certainly cannot against the Rams. It's a lot of points, but Rams to cover.
Cardinals +13.5 at Packers
I think the Packers win this but the Cardinals cover. The Packers line is fading fast, and despite my criticisms of Chandler Jones, he can still rush like a mother. This is a good place for the Cardinals defense to rise up and keep a game competitive. If they somehow win this McCarthy will be gone by Monday. Maybe then Rodgers can win another Superbowl or two.
Jets +9.5 at Titans
9.5 is too much to give up for the Titans, at least for me. They are just too up and down for me to bet them as big favorites like this. Seems like they play up or down to their competition, and this is definitely down. Even the Jets should be able to keep it within a score. All they have to do is not turn the ball over 4 times every week and people could see there's actually a decent team hiding here somewhere.
49'ers +9.5 at Seahawks
This one is the opposite of the previous game. The 49'ers seem intent on tanking, and even if they weren't, Nick Mullens is going to get destroyed against an underrated Seattle defense. This has beatdown written all over it. Seahawks all the way.