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2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 5 – Colts 19, Chiefs 13

Date:
October 8, 2019

2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 5 – Colts 19, Chiefs 13

 

Someone please explain to me again why Andy Reid is a great NFL head coach?

Facing a Colts team missing three key defensive players, and with hobbled key offensive weapons…playing this wounded Colts team with a backup-quality QB at KC on a Sunday Night game with a full throttle crowd behind them – the Chiefs lose by being totally outcoached/outplayed. Not just in this game the Chiefs were outcoached by Indy -- but all year.

The Chiefs did not get better this offseason, they got worse. They are the Green Bay Packers of the last decade+…a slug of a head coach being carried by an all-time QB, and instead of winning multiple divisions and Super Bowls they always find a way to disappoint in the end…but then there is that one year they do great and Reid will live off that reputation. Mike McCarthy existed because of Aaron Rodgers. Go look Andy Reid’s playoff record in the playoffs…12-14 lifetime, 2-7 playoff record the past decade. Has the game passed him by? Just an OK coach…not great. Like an OK QB…not great – it sticks a franchise in 2nd-gear perpetually.

That WR mess the Chiefs have after Tyreek – how do you possess the world’s greatest QB, and surround him with a pile of hot, wet garbage aside from Tyreek? Mecole Hardman is wildly overrated. Sammy Watkins is probably the most overrated WR of the last decade. Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle are nice #4-5s. There is so much WR talent out there in football, how is this the Chiefs plan?

The Chiefs defense is embarrassing. They have no run game on offense. If an opponent is smart, they can bait KC into a slow-paced game, and because they are basically Mahomes-Tyreek what makes them special…without Tyreek it’s just an old Aaron Rodgers Packers’ team – always dangerous, but beatable. The Chiefs should’ve been beaten by the Lions Week 4. KC couldn’t put the Ravens away Week 3 but held them off in the end. Oakland outplayed KC most of their Week 2 game.

This is a highly overrated Chiefs team.

This is a highly underrated Colts team…by me. There are things I would do different with personnel but kudos to Frank Reich for embracing new technology/analytics and taking risks on the field. He totally outcoached Andy Reid here, and missing half his secondary he suppressed Patrick Mahomes.

Just shocking to watch with my KC glasses on, but I need to take those things off and wear Colts’ glasses – that was a brilliant game by Frank Reich and the entire team.

I’m starting to wonder a few things about the AFC West – Oakland might have a shot, and if Denver wins this week (Week 6)…hosting KC Week 7 on TNF is a perfect spot to copycat what Indy just did. The AFC West may not be over yet. Let’s say KC wins at home this week and then loses at Denver…with the KC schedule ahead this 5-2 team is trending to a 9-10-win team. 10 wins as the ceiling, perhaps.

In KC’s last 13 games (incl. playoffs) they either lost or won the game by a score or less 8 times. The myth of them being this juggernaut that blows teams out is fading from reality. Still good/great because of Mahomes, but not this real threat to the Patriots…but anything can happen in a one game showdown.

Indy jumps to 3-2 and takes over control of winning the AFC South. It’s going to be a race to the finish between IND-JAX-HOU. Beating KC is a big change of fortune/projection on the season. We project them to 9-10 wins and possibly the Week 17 game at Jacksonville for all the AFC South marbles. I’d say 9 wins and wild card hopes is the top likely outcome right now, but near being a 10-win division winner.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- First thing, off the KC-IND topic…

It’s Tuesday, everyone is preparing for waivers, etc. You just watched Baker Mayfield die on cable television last night, so now it’s you new reality going forward. Everything that just happened is everything going forward…I know that’s the default programming of every fantasy GM. It’s good because D.J. Chark is going to have 25+ TDs this season then!

Among the many ‘things’/trends happening now is – schedule matters so much. Every RB is capable. Every team has a reasonable QB (except Buffalo). Every team has at least one super-talent WR. We’re now into really sorting out and interpreting schedule impacts. Lamar Jackson was not the greatest just because he throttled Miami Week 1. Dak is different as the schedule has changed. The Patriots defense is epic because their schedule was handpicked perfection by Roger Goodell (Belichick’s greatest trick the devil ever played…he’s got a guy on the inside! I’m kidding…it was God. God clearly loves the Patriots as you can see from the last however many years). Kirk Cousins was not the worst because the Bears got him Week 4. Baker is not the worst because the 49ers with 15 days prep at home on MNF got him Week 5.

But it sure seems like Baker is the worst.

Simultaneously, I have you whipped up into a Gardner Minshew frenzy.

The natural question of the day has been – do I drop Baker for Minshew in redraft?

My answer…”Yes, if you want to…if you accept the risks.”

I get it. I’m starting to pull those triggers too – Baker is useless this week, on a BYE Week 7, and then useless at NE Week 8, not great Week 9 at DEN, useless Week 10 vs. BUF. You want to hold dead money for five more weeks? Now, that will turn weeks 11-16 when he has a fantastic schedule. Maybe…

Do you want to wait? Do you want to drop and try to get back weeks from now in anticipation? Will you even need him?

I’d drop Baker for Minshew in redraft in two seconds IF I 100% knew Nick Foles was not getting that job back Week 11-12. For the last week, I thought it was 60% likely Minshew stayed as starter. Now, the more I think about it…I believe it’s more 80%+ he stays. He’s too good. Too much THE team now. The face…the mustached face of the franchise. The not-idiotic acting version of Baker – team loves him, great player, but not a jackass like Baker is trending towards and riling up every opponent with a bad O-Line to try to take them down with…and Minshew has WRs that give a shit and they run routes that get them open. And Minshew has a much better schedule.

If you have the vaunted Kyler-Baker combination in redraft…I’ve been wanting to hold Baker until the schedule broke late, and just ride Kyler all the way in the meantime. BUT I am willing to bet on Minshew staying at QB now…and we have the worry the Browns locker room is going to implode with those personalities with a few more losses. It’s one part = it’s waiting too long for Baker. It’s another part = Minshew is that good/great.

If Minshew is benched for Foles, you can come crying to me and we’ll cry together.

If you have Kyler-Dak…you could get Minshew off waivers (in many redraft leagues) and then trade Dak hot (Dak + ___ to get ___). IF, IF, IF you believe in Minshew. I do, but I also know Doug Marrone is nutty (but so are most coaches) and Foles could replace him for inexplicable reasons. I’m to the point Minshew is too good not to take advantage of fixing some wrong and trading other QBs hot and rolling dice on.

https://youtu.be/9HVejEB5uVk

 

 -- OK, worse than your Baker situation might be your Kansas City-based RB situation…

WTF with LeSean McCoy (2-23-0/2)?

An all-time RB playing well is just ditched at the first sign of return of Damien Williams (9-23-0, 3-12-0/4). Damien Williams is averaging 1.8 yards per carry this season…but ran the ball 9 times to LeSean’s *checks notes twice* ZERO carries in this game.

I have been wrong at most every turn of this KC situation. I’ll be right for a moment and then a KC swerve, and then I’ll be right about the new swerve for a moment and then they’ll swerve the swerve.

I’m going to stop listening to KC insider chatter I’ve been getting. I’m going to stop playing WWRCD mind games. I’m just going to do what I am doing/should be doing on EVERY RB situation in the NFL in 2019 -- assume the coaches are going with what they have been going with (until injury changes it temporarily).

 

Snaps in game (when both active, Weeks 1-2-5):

45-39-35 = Dam. Williams

20-30-14 = McCoy

 

Williams has out-snapped McCoy every game this season when both available.

 

Touches/opportunities in games (when both active, carries+targets):

19-12-12 = Dam. Williams

11-14-02 = McCoy

 

All we can assume is – Damien Williams is the lead. Him being out for two games with injury and then right back in as a starter and never yielding to McCoy…a really HUGE statement by the coaching staff.

My WWRCD brain is saying…a KC loss + Dam. Williams is terrible running the ball = a change/swerve next week. But my new WWICD (What Would Idiotic Coaches Do) brain says to trust the obvious, and that coaches don’t change without turmoil (big losing streaks or injury to THEIR guy).

So, you’re semi-screwed with McCoy as a 30-40% share guy and you got a ‘legit’ lead RB in Damien Williams at 60-70% share. Worst case it’s a maddening 50-50. I try to hold McCoy in case KC realizes they aren’t very good and they start trending to McCoy, but this week I see Damien Williams as an RB2 – they lead KC RB when Tyreek is back is going to be valuable.

Oh, and like I have been saying about Darrel Williamsthanks for your service. We don’t need you anymore. If Darrel Williams was an RB1 for two weeks of play…then Damien Williams can be an RB2, and McCoy can be as well working together in this offense.

 

 -- Will Tyreek be back this week? Lord, I hope so.

When he does…Hardman-Pringle-D.Robinson are all random event flex options that I have no idea which one will matter week-to-week. Demarcus would be my guess as the primary 3rd starter with Tyreek-Watkins.

If Watkins is out, will Byron Pringle (6-103-1/9) do this again in Week 6? No. If both Tyreek and Watkins out…maybe he’s the best option, but I’d like Hardman or Demarcus as a guess too.

No Tyreek, no Watkins…could be a big week for Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy taking passes out of the backfield.

 

 -- Patrick Mahomes (22-39 for 321 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) looked human against Indy…which is scary considering the injuries the Indy D was dealing with. Add in that Mahomes was hobbling around with a foot that’s been bothering him for weeks.

It’s another little window opening to try to get him in a reasonable deal if you have the pieces. When Tyreek is back, everything changes. Mahomes can save/make seasons like no other QB…especially in 6pts per pass TD and/or bonus scoring leagues.

Mahomes has thrown 42 TD passes his last 16 games (incl. playoffs), FYI. He has thrown for 366.2 yards per game this year…every game 300+.

 

 -- Nyheim Hines (2-0-0, 4-46-0/5) might be something in PPR in BYE week crisis…

4-1-3-6-4 for catches in games this season 3.6 per game. He has averaged 4.3 catches per game the past three games. He is the 3rd-down/2-minute drill back. He has speed, but never seems to break anything – but he flashed some big plays this game. He lost a catch and 25+ yards on called back plays. He’s doing something, at least (PPR).

 

 -- Deon Cain (1-7-0/1) is doing nothing. He looked so good in the preseason and has had chances to matter with all the WR injuries, but he’s done nothing with the opportunity. Just a future deep sleeper, I guess.

 

 -- Ben Niemann (10 tackles) played a big amount at ILB for KC here. Niemann is not great, but he is a go-get-them tackler…he’ll rack tackles as teams constantly run at KC to slow down Mahomes (but he’ll get burned in the passing game). If Niemann is going to get more chances (Hitchens hurt groin, undetermined severity) – he could be a surprise with IDP numbers/tackle counts ahead.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

35 = Dam Williams

14 = McCoy

14 = Darrel W

 

58 = Demarcus

49 = Pringle

39 = Hardman

 

54 = Mack

17 = Hines

12 = Wilkins

 

70 = Niemann

66 = Dam. Wilson

28 = Darron Lee

11 = Hitchens

05 = Ragland



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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