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2019 Handicapping Chat: Week 2 (Survivor, Best Bets, Misc.)...

Date:
September 15, 2019

Handicapping Group Records YTD:

 

Blazing Five:

3-2 = Rabbitt

3-2 = RC

3-2 = Colin

2-3 = Katz

2-3 = Savage

1-4 = Skol

 

All games ATS:

9-7 = Skol

8-8 = RC

7-9 = Rabbitt

6-10 = Katz

6-10 = Savage

 

 

RC: Well, I think everyone is still alive in survivor pool...a nice change from getting wiped out last Week 1 by Tampa Bay. Many of us here had Seattle and were biting our nails this Week 1...but we got it the books!!!

We didn't light up the world, as a group, in overall bets or blazing five, but not terrible. Denver hit some of us in the unmentionables. 

Now with a week in the books...

a) What is your big takeaway on Week 1 betting for Week 2

b) Who is your best bet for Week 2 ATS, at this stage

c) Who you going with in survivor pool this week? 

 

Katz: Losing in Survivor would've been the icing on the cake for the worst Week 1 I've ever had as a football fan between losing just about every fantasy matchup and going 4-12 ATS when I usually crush Week 1.

a) My biggest takeaway is that we are going to see some college football lines involving Miami this season. I don't know if it's possible to make them big enough. This team might go 0-16.

b) My favorite bet this week is Pittsburgh -3.5 over Seattle. The Steelers looked awful last week, but they always look awful in New England. I don't suddenly think Big Ben is done. He is a different player at home. They are a different team at home. Seattle won a nailbiter last week in a game they should've won easily. Their defense is awful and even though they absolutely have the talent to go shot for shot with the Steelers, Pete Carroll will make sure he hides Russell Wilson for as long as possible until it's too late for even Russ to bring them back.

c) I am taking Carolina this week. There are a bunch of great options, but I don't see another spot I will feel comfortable using Carolina for the rest of the season. They are coming off a home loss and I have a hard time seeing them fall to 0-2 at home, let alone against the Bucs. If Jameis Winston goes into Carolina and wins this game, I tip my cap.

 

Skol:  In the past 3 years, not sure exactly how many B5’s I’ve had where I won under 2 games, I know not many, and it happened the first week I’m in the Supercontest.  With my weekly picks going 9-7.  I didn’t think I was going to win a million dollars but I was certainly hoping to be in the game for a while!  

Not sure if it’s just chance but the games I was locked in on for months (and the lines moved to significantly worse numbers) all lost (Jax, Car, Den).  Games where I felt people were missing something the week leading up to the games (and the lines moved in favor of the teams I liked) 2-0...Vikings, Bengals.  

I agree with Katz, I like the Steelers this week as well.  I wish I could have gotten a piece of Ravens -9.5 on the look ahead...I still may be interested in -13.  

In real life I played 2 knockout entries a Philly and a Den...so with the one that is alive I’m looking at the Ravens or Pats.

For Thurs...I’m on team Katz here too...I think it could be a Car party on Thursday night...Cam’s type of game where he can get rolling and I saw a McCoy quote saying how confident he is that this is a good defense.  Not good news for Winston.

 

Savage: My biggest takeaway is that most of the teams that made significant changes on offense in the offseason (Packers, Cardinals, and Browns) look like they're not at full speed yet.The teams that we saw really excel are the ones where the key players and the coaching staff are all the same as last year, like KC, New Orleans, and the Patriots. We'll see how long it takes... the Packers should benefit from having 10 days off, but I feel like I want to stay away from Arizona and Cleveland until I see things click a little more.

Speaking of Arizona, I thought a huge part of the reason they struggled was because Detroit's defense looked surprisingly good. That unit started playing well toward the end of last season and it appears that's another thing that has carried over to 2019. They also threw the ball much more than I thought they would (until they got overly conservative in the 2nd half), which makes me feel better about them going forward. I think they're going to beat the Chargers at home this week and I'm leaning toward having that as my best bet. 

I'm not as excited about Pittsburgh as the rest of the group. Seattle is just bad enough to struggle to beat the Bengals at home, but they're also just good enough to stay close with Pittsburgh. 

For survivor, I'm just taking the Patriots. We'll see exactly how terrible the Dolphins actually are as the year goes on, but if they're anything close to as bad as they looked in week 1 you can use whoever they're playing as your survivor pick just about every week. They don't play New England again until week 17, likely a game the Patriots don't need to win. 

 

Katz: Looking at the schedule now, I think I'm gonna go New England as well. Even though we know they're going 12-4 at worst, they don't have any lock home wins on the schedule until the final two weeks of the season and I'd rather not take road teams in general, even against weaker teams. The Dolphins are an exception because they might go 0-16 and lose every game by two scores. Yep. You talked me into it.

 

Rabbitt:  Broncos had a pretty significant loss with James early in that game, so maybe there is hope as the season progresses. Browns game was so fluky, that I'm not worried.

I am taking the pats at home for sure.  Pretty sure I ride whoever Miami plays until I can't anymore.

 

RC: There is a lot of logic in just going anti-Miami the next 3 weeks and then they have a BYE Week 5 and re-assessing. There is no other team that bad...TB or NYJ aren't as bad. My survivor pick the next 3 weeks, today, is Miami. 

Brand New/never been O-C's last week: TEN, CIN, DAL, ARI...all covered/won. DEN didn't lose because of the new O-C...and then MIA. Do we get another week of new O-C is favorable action (non Miami)?

My Best Bet ATS is wobbling between PIT and NO right now. PIT is what I'll do if Haden and Watt play. If Haden, Watt, Sean Davis are out...then I don't love this week. 

I'd watch out trying to go against ARI...still so unknown what they are about and if BAL played NE and got beat by 30 last week (and they would have) the Week 2 ARI-BAL line would be 6-8 at best. 

 

RC: Anyone betting the game tonight? Anyone backing up a truck on the Browns on MNF? 

 

Katz: I'm staying away tonight. Carolina should win, but Cam looked awful last week. It has me concerned. Jameis is terrible, but he can have his moments. I wouldn't be totally shocked if Tampa found a way to win this game.

 

Skol:  I took the Panthers -6.5.  Carolina defense looked awesome to me last week...if they win by 6 or less so be it.  A step down in class for Cam playing the TB defense so I think he could get rolling.  

Not sure about the Browns...I’ll be at the game so I’m sure I’ll have a bet on Baker!

 

Katz: We're gonna see a lot of Nick Chubb on Monday in a noncompetitive game. Can't imagine Baker is asked to do much.

 

Savage: I'm in no rush to bet on the Browns now that the line is up to 6.5. They were so sloppy last week, I almost forgot Hue Jackson isn't their coach anymore. 

I'm staying away tonight also. If anything, I like the under. 49 is a lot of points for two teams that didn't have a play over 30 yards in week 1. 



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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