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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2019 Handicapping Chat: Week 3 (Survivor, Best Bets, Misc.)...

September 21, 2019

Handicapping Group Records YTD:


Blazing Five:

7-3 = Colin (4-1 Wk2)

6-4 = Savage (4-1 Wk2)

6-4 = Rabbitt (3-2 Wk2)

6-4 = RC (3-2 Wk2)

5-5 = Skol (4-1 Wk2)

4-6 = Katz (2-3 Wk2)


All games ATS:

19-13 = Skol (10-6 Wk2)

19-13 = RC (11-5 Wk2)

19-13 = Rabbitt (12-4 Wk2)

17-15 = Katz (11-5 Wk2)

13-19 = Savage (7-9 Wk2)

*Started THU morning and run thru Friday night*

RC: I assume everyone is going with Dallas over Miami in survivor this week, so let me just ask... What game are you for sure betting on this week? Your best bet. And what winless/0-2 team is going to the playoffs for sure/if you had to pick one and why?


Rabbitt: 100% taking Dallas over Miami.  Only other play would be if I hadn't taken NE already.

I am 100% betting the Broncos to cover against GB.  Reason-  is Green Bay really 8 points better?  Secondly, I will be at the game, so I have to go ahead and make that bet.

I think the 0-2 team with a shot has to be Jacksonville- but they HAVE to win this week, and I would say they HAVE to keep Ramsey.  The NFC south doesn't look like it is any good at all.  They might be able to win that division at 8-8 or 9-7 with foles riding in on his superman cape off of IR at the end of the season.


RC: I think Denver is one of the best bets of the week. They should be 1-1 minimum and might get back Bryce Callahan this week. Green Bay should be 0-2 right now. I'll take the 7-8 pts all day here. 


Katz: My favorite bet of the week is the Rams. I know it's a square play, but the Browns still don't look good. The spread is only 3 and these are games the Rams just find ways to win. Given that I don't see the Rams losing this game, I'm confident they will win by at least a field goal.


Skol:  I already submitted Dallas in survivor...if by some crazy circumstance someone didn’t have Dallas or Pats to choose from them I think the -4 to -10 point favorites are potentially a bunch of land mines.  I guess I’d go Vikings...

My 0-2 team is Denver.  At dinner last night I had to endure a few minutes of abuse for doing an entire podcast on the Broncos.  If they can get Callahan and Davis back, then case for them is still intact.  Here to hoping they aren’t 0-4 when the rise happens.

On the same page with you guys, I already bet Den +8 and took the Rams -3 while sitting in my seat at MetLife Monday Night...what a world it will be when everyone can bet on their phone at every stadium.  Although the Rams OL scares me...my best bet of week 2 at this point is DEN.  


Savage: I love the Bills this week. I get that they haven’t played anyone yet, but they also haven’t played a home game. Winning two straight road games against inferior opponents is exactly what playoff-level teams are supposed to do. Cincinnati’s run defense has been awful and they haven’t played a defense as good as Buffalo’s. The crowd should be extra rowdy in support of a 2-0 team, so I think we see the Bills A-game.

As for winless teams, I agree with Rabbitt that Jacksonville has a shot if they win tonight, and I think they will. Their schedule is easy enough to get them 9 wins, which could take the AFC south. 

How about Arizona (not 0-2, but technically winless) as a 2nd possibility? Their games against Carolina, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh just got a lot easier. If they can get 3 wins there, win road games against the Giants and Bengals, and pull off a few upsets at home, they could to 8 or 9 wins. It’s starting to look like we’ll only get 1 playoff team from the other 3 NFC divisions, so I think Arizona is live for the 6 seed.


Katz: I like every team starting a new QB this week (except Carolina). There's just a natural public reaction to "backup QB." It's baked into the line. And I think the impact of the QB change is often overstated. Teddy and Taysom are going to be a nightmare to deal with. Mason Rudolph might actually be good. And Daniel Jones can't possibly be worse than Eli...and he's probably the best QB in that game.


Skol:  I agree on sneaky ARI...really wish Cam was playing this week...in addition to dressing like RuPaul, now he’s starting to throw like him.  

I’m not on board with Buffalo this week...I get the logic, I just think this team shouldn’t be 6 point favorite with the Pats on deck.  Cincy can threaten the Bills D deep...something the Jets and Giants couldn’t do.  Was hoping that line would go up but it seems locked at 6


RC: To some degree Devin Singletary has saved the season for the Bills so far. Literally Week 1 over the sad Jets. He carried the team with his play. Last week, NYG got up 7-0. BUF made it 7-7 and with the Bills scuffling on offense…Singletary got his first touch and ran it for a 10+ yard TD and the Bills muddled to victory from there. This week, if no Singletary...you can't give Cincy +6 or more against them. Frank Gore is no threat. Allen is a turnover factory. The Bengals are playing respectfully and well coached. I would not want to lay big pts with BUF. I think Cincy may win that game outright. 


Katz: I'm on the Bengals this week. Singletary is not going to play. 


Savage: I like Singletary, but I think you're overstating how much he's affecting the game. The Bills had 140 yards of offense early in the 2nd quarter before Singletary even touched the ball. His TD run was a wide-open hole and nobody even got near him until he was at the goal line. Gore and Yeldon score on that play as well. He had 2 or 3 long runs like that in week 1 too, where his speed gets him 4-5 more yards than Gore or Yeldon would, but the O-line is doing most of the heavy lifting. 

The Josh Allen turnover factory and the Cincy deep passing threat are both good points. My counter would be I don't think the Bengals' defense is good enough to exploit Allen and I don't see what they can do on offense besides the deep ball. John Ross has accounted for 1/3 of their yardage this year and I don't think that's sustainable. A good defense can withstand a few big plays if they stop everything else. 


RC: When the Bills don't go Singletary they are going with non threats Gore-Yeldon...which means 2 & 8, 3rd & 5...forcing Allen to throw. When Allen has to throw...you can beat the Bills. Or at least hang with them. No Singletary takes away the one thing they could ride (but haven't except 2nd half of Week 1)...the one thing that could scare defenses. Gore and Yeldon aren't making the Singletary runs. That open space would close when the tugboats went thru. 

It's not about Singletary is a god...it's him gone forces them into Gore-Yeldon-Allen, and you're going to lay 6+ with that?

The John Ross factor is a bonus...the Bengals have a player that can score on a simple bubble screen. Buffalo has no one they're using like that. 

I just think the 6+ laying with Buffalo is crazy. The Bengals are being punished for losing to a top 10 49ers team last week (after nearly whacking Seattle at Seattle (who hasn't lost a home opener in like a decade)...and the Bills are being celebrated for beating the #31 and #30 teams in the league and semi-scuffling to do it and a reason they sparked some (DS) is probably not going to play. 

I'm not even advocating hard for Cincy...just a caution to beware of the Bills respect. it's fool's gold. 


Savage: Yeah, I agree that Singletary is by far their best back and I'd obviously prefer to have him on the field. It will be interesting to see how well they can run the ball without him. 

I'm glad you brought up Seattle. If they beat the Saints this weekend they're going to be the most fraudulent 3-0 team in recent memory. Big Ben got hurt and they were still fortunate to beat Pittsburgh, who might have only been a 7 or 8 team even with Ben healthy. I think the fact that they played a close game with the Bengals in week 1 has more to do with Seattle being bad than Cincy being decent. Seattle plays in Arizona next week and the look-ahead line is Seahawks -3.5.


RC: To the Katz pick of the week (LAR)...

How bad was Tennessee last night? 

That Titans team rolled through the Browns at Cleveland in a home opener atmosphere. 

The Browns could lose by 50+ this week... with McVay v. Kitchens. 

Katz: This is kind of where I'm at with the Browns. And it's frustrating to me as a bettor because I was fading the Browns hype all offseason. I did so by betting the Steelers to make the playoffs. Oops. I just knew it wasn't gonna be the Browns winning that division. I'm not out on Baker by any means. I still think he will be one of the league's best quarterbacks. It just doesn't look like it will happen this season or at least not this early in the season. The Rams haven't looked great either, but that's less a product of any issues and more just Jared Goff missing throws I expect him to make and that he will make as the season progresses.

The Browns will not lose by 50, but I don't expect a super close game. Something like 30-20 Rams.

Savage: The Titans have been like this for the last decade or so. One week they look like world-beaters, the next week they can barely complete a forward pass. They're an easy team to beat if you hit them in the mouth early and often like Jacksonville did, but they'll beat you if you play sloppy. I'm somewhat willing to give the Browns a pass for week 1 at this point.  They're a young team that bought into their own hype and thought week 1 would be a cakewalk. It's not a great sign in terms of them contending for a championship in 2019, but it's normal for a team that doesn't have experience winning.

I'm starting to like the home dog more and more as the week goes on. I thought Cleveland's offense started to click on Monday night and their defense took care of business. The Rams are probably the most public bet of the week and, as Katz said, they haven't looked great either. Looks like it's going to be one of those weeks where I'm on the opposite side of the rest of the group...

Rabbitt: Week 1's are always strange. Jacksonville matches up much better against the Titans anyway.  Cleveland isn't built for the kind of game that was played last night. I actually love Cleveland this week. Rams are primed for a letdown after a big "rematch" game against NO.  Points are just gravy.  I almost put them on my B-5, over KC, but I love a ton of games this week.  Browns offensive line is a big question mark, but Aaron Donald hasn't looked right so far, and there isn't much else there that scares me.  I think this is a game the Browns are more likely to win than not, so the points to me are gravy.


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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