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2019 Handicapping Chat: Week 5 (Survivor, Best Bets, Misc.)...

Date:
October 3, 2019

Overall, the group got crushed ATS Week 4. The leaders that were flying high for three weeks, were pulled back to .500 range. There are always weeks like this when picking ALL games, and then there will be the opposite at some point. Bettors across the land got rocked some in a topsy-turvy Week 4. We dust ourselves off and get back at it.

Most of us are alive for Survivor pools, so they guys weigh in on their non-being-able-to-face-Miami options as well as some talk on betting TNF tonight.

 

All games ATS:

34-30 = Katz (7-9 Wk4)

33-31 = Skol (4-12 Wk4)

32-32 = RC (4-12 Wk4)

32-32 = Rabbitt (7-9 Wk4)

26-38 = Savage (8-8 Wk4)

 

 

RC: Now, we got something to talk about in Survivor pool...no Miami this week. We're all still alive, as are many. Except, did someone take the Rams in this last week?

Most of us went Seattle Week 1, then anti-Miami the last 3 weeks. Now, here we are. Where are you going and why? Many reading this are alive and desperately wanting things to consider, so lay it on us!

1) Survivor pick

2) I'm going heavy Rams +1.5 TNF, am I crazy? Love this bounce back play and Seattle way overrated. 

3) Could the 46.5 'under' GB v DAL be the best bet of the week/season considering no Tyron and no Davante? What are your best bet items of the week?

 

Rabbitt:  I think the obvious survivor picks are KC and Philly. Injuries have me waiting on this one a bit.  If Darnold plays at negative 20 pounds I am taking Philly. If Hill plays, I am taking KC.  Let’s tentatively put me on Philly this week.

Love the rams bounce back pick.

I think Dallas lights up the packers, they might score 46 on their own just running the ball. But I have been wrong on that team all year.

 

Katz: Let's hit em all in order.

1. Easy call this week on Philly. Luke Falk on the road? Please. The next best thing after fading Miami is fading the Jets. If anyone took the Rams last week, no sympathy - you got what you deserved. Never go against Tampa. Not because Tampa is good, but because they're liable to pop any given week.

2. I love the Rams this week. Seattle is a fraud. The Rams will come out throwing as they always do and Seattle will run themselves into a hole that Russell Wilson won't be able to dig out of because the Rams are actually good.

3. That under looks really appealing. I may have to bet it. My favorite bet of the week is Cincinnati. Every week, for some reason, Arizona gets way more respect than they deserve. They are truly a horrendous team. Just like last week, when I correctly pinpointed Seattle as a lock, Cincinnati is also a lock for the same reason. Arizona can't stop anyone and at some point, Kyler Murray will take a stupid sack destroying a drive and Cinci will pull further and further ahead. Arizona may not win a game this year.

 

Savage: I've already used Philly and the Patriots, so I'm stuck with KC as my survivor pick this week. I'm not in love with that option. I think the Colts are scrappy and might be able to keep the game close. I wish there was a better option, but the next best thing is probably the Chargers at home against Denver and that has even more upset potential.

I won't be betting any money on the Rams this week. They look a little fraudulent to me as well. Their defense has now been gashed by the Panthers and Bucs. Their losses on their O-line and whatever is going on with Gurley have made it difficult for them to run the ball, which brings down the entire offense. I don't see enough positive signs to bet on them on the road in a short week. Seattle has played them tough the last few years, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a Seahawks win.

For the GB/Dallas game, I think Rabbitt makes a good point. The Packers' D has quietly given up 150+ rush yards for 3 straight weeks. They snuck away with wins against Minnesota and Denver because Cousins was bad, and the Broncos couldn't protect Flacco. Against the Eagles, Wentz didn't get pressured and played a solid game. If Dak gets protected and plays a decent game I think the Packers will need to air it out again. 

 

Skol:  At first I was a little offended by Katz because I was knocked out with the Rams...but after seeing that he had them in his B5 I feel a little better that is was a self-loathing rant which makes it all ok.  I certainly don’t think I deserved to get knocked out because it took a 9.5-point home fav vs a 14 point road fav and got burned...however, it is one of my many regrets as I review week 4.

This week I think the Eagles will be ok for survivor despite this being an AFC sandwiched between 2 tough and more important NFC games.  I think Texans are an off the radar pretty good knockout play coming off a loss, KC should be fine as well...but how about the, save the best for last, hands down best knockout play of the week...the London Bears.

As far as games this week I do think the Rams are flawed but less flawed than SEA.  The 49ers are the team that is the real threat to the Rams division title IMO.  Right now, I have my early eyes on the London Bears -5 and SF -3.5.

 

RC: We already used NE on Miami, or I'd be all-in against Washington. The Dwayne Haskins Redskins could be the new Miami Dolphins in survivor pools. I'm going to go with Philly but I'm slightly nervous for it because as Skol pointed out, they could easily look past this game...and if Rodgers completes his late pass/gets the proper P.I./scores and wins/beats Philly, then the world would be crushing Philly for the past 10 days. The Eagles got a hundred gifts and barely won...they are not a very good football team. And the Jets are playing hard on defense, and the Eagles defense is one of the worst in football. I hate it, but I am going with the Eagles for my Survivor pick. 

If I had any guts -- I'd take the Vikings or the Rams instead, but I don't like to take road teams in Survivor. 

But the Vikings are potentially my best bet of the week...with the Rams. The 'under' for MIN-NYG is in play for me too (44). Daniel Jones is the worst...and he's going to get crucified by the Vikings this week. The Giants won't score more than 10pts, but not sure if the Vikings won't score 40+.

How will the Dallas O-Line fare with Tyron Smith out is my issue with betting the run game vs. susceptible GB run defense. 



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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