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2019 Handicapping Chat: Week 6 (Survivor, Best Bets, Misc.)...

Date:
October 13, 2019

All games ATS:

43-34-1 (55.8%) = Katz (9-5-1 Wk5)

42-35-1 (54.5%) = Skol (9-5-1 Wk5)

41-36-1 (53.2%) = RC (9-5-1 Wk5)

40-37-1 (51.9%) = Rabbitt (8-6-1 Wk5)

34-43-1 (44.2%) = Savage (9-5-1 Wk5)

RC: OK, all of us had winning records ATS last week and winning record Blazing Fives (and so did Colin, who is killing it). So, we're all rolling, so we should be taken seriously now when we answer the questions:

1) Who's still alive in Survivor, and who are you picking now that God has taken away Washington and Miami targeting from us? 

2) What is a top real money bet you are looking at this week?

3) Are you playing the must-see TNF game NYG-NE (-16.5)? There has to be someone taking the Giants and the points...I mean...Danny Dimes and all, amiright?

 

RABBITT:

1.)  Survivor is a tough spot this week.  I don't like to take road teams if I can avoid it, but the game that sticks out at me is the cowboys vs the jets.  Ravens at home against the Bengals is the other obvious one for me, but I’m not sure the Ravens are a good football team.  Some folks also probably like the chargers vs the Steelers, but given their inability to stop the run, the Steelers just might Samuels play QB and run for 500 yards.  Mark me down for the cowboys unless you hear otherwise.

2.)  I am really struggling to find an obvious bet of the week.  I think I like the bengals to cover, as I don't think the ravens are 10 points better than anyone... but I hate betting on bad football teams.

3.)  I refuse to bet against tom in prime time with an opportunity to embarrass the giants.  This isn't a "rivalry" but Tom and Bill would like to remind the team with two of their rings who they are I imagine.  This has all the looks of 40-0.

 

Katz: Well the Samuels at QB thing would be a funny way to joke about the Steelers, but obviously he's not playing for the next month. The Chargers are safe, but I used them against Miami. Ditto with Dallas. So, the answer is Baltimore and I hope they don't screw me.

As for the obvious bet of the week. I agree that there really isn't one this week. The game that stands out to me is the Browns. I know how bad they looked Monday night, but now they're 2.5 home favorites over Seattle. Seems like such a trap. I'll go the other way.

I won't bet the Thursday night game, but the Giants aren't scoring any points.

 

Savage: I got eliminated from survivor by KC last week. If that hadn't happened, I'd take Baltimore this week.

Baltimore is also my favorite bet right now. I think this should be a full two-touchdown spread. I've been lower on the Bengals than just about everybody. I get that they have some nice skill players and Dalton is playing ok, but they can't block anybody or play defense. The Ravens have struggled for three straight weeks and I think they're looking for someone to punish. They should be able to control the line of scrimmage all day and win a 34-17 type game.

I may play the Patriots on TNF if the line drops a little (I'm still seeing -17). Shepard and Barkley are likely out, meaning Belichick will take away Engram and leave Jones with nowhere to go with the Ball. Danny will serve up a pick 6 at some point. I think the only risk is a meaningless backdoor cover like we saw in the Patriots/Jets game.

Katz, are you saying you like the Browns or the Seahawks? I like the Browns as an ugly dog right now.

 

Katz: I like the Browns.

 

Rabbitt: Somehow in the meat of my HS season I missed that Samuels had knee surgery.  I also forgot that I took both the chargers and Dallas.  Man, I am awesome at this whole talking about football thing.

I guess that puts me taking the Ravens... yet betting on the bengals to cover?  If anything, that might make that game interesting.

 

RC: I'm trying to decide between Dallas and Ravens for Survivor. I want to lean towards the team that I don't me picking/needing any time soon. 

Dallas's schedule is nightmare after this week with Week 9 at NYG as something to consider. Baltimore...maybe I use them Week 10 at CIN. Hosting the Jets Week 15. No real advantage screams out on schedule ahead. I just need to make it to Week's 9-10!

Next week (7) we have BUF hosting Miami and SF at WAS to choose from.

Week 8 PIT hosts MIA on MNF. The Rams host CIN. 

Week 9 BUF hosts WAS. MIA faces NYJ which kills those plans. Dallas at NYG on MNF is something. 

In case I use BUF Week 7, and in case I need Dallas Week 9 for some reason...I'll by process of elimination go with the heavily favored Ravens -- a nice run team facing the worst run defense in the NFL. 

 

RC: I was thinking of switching to Dallas, and then I was just reminded re-reading the thread here -- we all took them v. Miami. It's a forgetful week for football handicapping!!




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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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