2019 Handicapping Chat: Week 7 (Survivor, Best Bets, Misc.)...
All games ATS:
50-41-1 (54.9%) = Katz (7-7 Wk6)
49-42-1 (53.8%) = Skol (7-7 Wk6)
48-43-1 (52.7%) = Rabbitt (8-6 Wk6)
47-44-1 (51.6%) = RC (6-8 Wk6)
41-50-1 (45.1%) = Savage (7-7 Wk6)
RC: OK, this is getting serious now...a lot of us still alive in Survivor and a lot of Miami ahead.
-Where are you going with Survivor pick this week?
-What game(s) are jumping out at you to best bet?
-Anyone really playing the DEN-KC game, and who is your play/pick regardless? Are Skol and my Broncos really about to get into the AFC West race and make us NOT look like fools?
SKOL: Survivor seems plentiful this week...my top 3 would be (1) Buffalo...(2) Jax...(3) SF.
I already bet several games this week...maybe I can actually have a good B5 for once! I have Jax at -3 and -3.5...and PHI +3 (-120) and ML as well. CIN is down both starting corners I believe...I’ll take Jax with alternate point spreads and profit if this thing gets ugly.
I think the Eagles will beat Dallas on their non-existent home field no matter what happens with injury reports. But it seems like the most likely team to benefit from players returning are the Eagles. If DJAX is back that would be huge.
I never love when a team is getting steamed like the Broncos but I took Den +3.5 for the game and +3 in the first half...as well as both money lines. We’ll see if it has been just opponent driven or if Fangio is on to something with this defense. Man I wish I jumped on 4.5 when I saw it last week. The Broncos should have beat the Chiefs at Mile High last year...oh how I would I love to see this Denver team get to 3-4 (2-1 in the division).
RC: Buffalo seems like the obvious play, and it is...and I'll likely take it because the name of the game is survival. Next week might bring new options out of nowhere, so I don't love trying to play peeking ahead. However, there is a small case for Jacksonville over Cincy with the Bengals down two corners...AND, we'll probably not use Jacksonville again.
But I have to go Buffalo v. MIA. Then PIT v Miami Week 8. Then NYJ v. MIA Week 9. Then IND v. Miami Week 10. I'll take a nap on vs. Miami and set an alarm for Week 11 to find something different (BUF v MIA again). We do have Oakland hosting Cincy Week 11.
Bet of the Week? Anyone like how the Indy game looks for the Colts? Off a Bye. Houston hyped for beating Atlanta and Atlanta-like KC. Texans also down two starting corners this game.
Rabbitt: So much to unpack here. I am going to zig and take the Jags. I am with RC in that this is probably the only spot I get to take them, and I think that’s what I am going to do. There will be some they don't have Jalen noise, but the Bengals are bad bad bad, and I think the Jags will put up 40 points on them.
I would love Denver to claw their way back into this division, but I just cant find a way that they manage to beat the Chiefs. We may be able to cover Hill with Harris and help, but I have no idea how we even begin to cover Kelce.
Bet of the week... I kinda like the Rams -3 in a bounce back game.
Skol: I like IND as well. If you count to 7 Mississippi before rushing Watson, he’s dynamite...otherwise not so much.
Katz: One of my survivor pools requires two picks. I am going Buffalo as my primary and Green Bay as the second option in that one. I agree with RC that the Packers are a fraud 5-1 team, but they're not losing at home to Oakland...right?
I'm also with Rabbitt on the Rams. The Falcons are bad. Really bad. And the Rams really need a bounce back. This spot makes too much sense.
RC: I think Oakland is sneaky good and could win the AFC West -- they had KC down 10-0 quick and almost had 17-0 and then blew it and fell apart for a quarter and lost.
They are converting a high 3rd-down%. Carr plays quick/isn't getting sacked. Solid run game. Nice receivers now. The defense isn't terrible. Two weeks off to prep. Gruden's play calling and usage of players has been great. Green Bay is maybe better than Oakland over + home field, but Oakland's coaching and play much better -- I wouldn't be surprised if Oakland whacked GB like they did Chicago. Green Bay's main trick has been getting sacks/pressure -- but Carr neutralizes that maybe better than any QB in the NFL. I'm taking the points and OAK right now.
I love the Rams if Ramsey plays and Gurley doesn't.
Katz: I guess Oakland can win that game, but who is Carr throwing to other than Darren Waller? Are we really going to the Zay Jones well again in his first game with the team? Keelan Doss? Hunter Renfrow? Trevor Davis? Who is getting open on Jaire Alexander? I know Rodgers doesn't have receivers either but give me Rodgers over Carr and Allen Lazard over everyone on the Raiders.
Skol: And if the Raiders D stops the Packers on 3rd down, they have to worry about Rodgers on 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th down.
RC: Carr will throw to the same nobodies he did beating the Bears. I think GB is likely winner, but for survivor purposes (and you may have limited option), I'm just noting -- the Raiders are not a bad team. It wasn't luck that had them beating down Chicago. Green Bay comes with public acceptance. Oakland is thought to be a loser. I just think the line/the mentality is driven by a lot of 'feelings' but GB isn't that good and Oakland isn't that bad. Oakland is in the range of Detroit...and the Lions had Green Bay beat Monday night.
Plus, you get one team off Monday night...the other with two weeks off.
I'm not betting it for real, I'm just noting -- Oakland is not bad. The 'Bad' teams that are better than perception...Denver, Oakland and the Jets -- all of which smacked some tough/decent opponents down their last games played.
Savage: With Oakland, I want to be careful not to put too much stock in a game that occurred in London. That game was reminiscent of the Bears game against Miami last year - Chicago comes in as a big favorite and plays sluggish, uninspired football. I don't know if the Bears partied all weekend like they did last year in Miami or if they were jetlagged, but it seemed like the Raiders caught them on the right day. Oakland's wins are against Chase Daniel, Jacoby Brissett, and Joe Flacco. They've lost by double digits against better QB's (Mahomes and Cousins). Comparing Detroit to Oakland is reasonable, so it's fair to say that Oakland could win or cover if Green Bay plays as sloppy game as they did on Monday night. It also means that Green Bay could win by 10+ if they can avoid muffed punts and fluky interceptions in the redzone.
The bet I like this week is Minnesota just to win in Detroit. There's a narrative developing about the Vikings home/road splits because they've looked dominant at home and mediocre on the road. I think the disparity is mostly schedule based. Their home schedule has been fairly easy and their two toughest matchups (Chicago and Green Bay) have been road games. They handled the Giants just fine in their one easy road game two weeks ago. I think they're comfortable playing in Detroit and I think they're better than the Lions on both sides of the ball.
Give me Buffalo in survivor. I like Denver on TNF but won't be betting it unless the line gets bet up.