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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2019 Handicapping Chat: Week 8 (Survivor, Best Bets, Misc.)...

October 26, 2019

 All games ATS:

56-49-1 (53.3%) = Katz (6-8 last wk)

55-50-1 (52.4%) = Rabbitt (7-7 last wk)

55-50-1 (52.4%) = RC (8-6 last wk)

54-51-1 (51.4%) = Skol (5-9 last wk)

48-57-1 (45.7%) = Savage (7-7 last wk)


RC: We're about halfway in and many of us are still surviving...ringing that Miami anti-train. Sweated it a bit last week with Buffalo, but we advance. Do we continue to ride the anti-Miami train into Pittsburgh? Do you play your Minnesota card since it may be the best/only to use them and save the Steelers for later/Week 12 v. CIN perhaps? How about the the last/best time we could use the Rams (over CIN)? It's an interesting strategy week. Who do you choose if you had PIT-LAR-MIN to choose from? 

And...any best bets for Week 8 popping out at you ATS? 

And...who is your league MVP at this stage/why?


Katz: Easy call on the Rams this week. There will not be a better time to use them and, to be honest, I'd rather not wait until Monday night. I also saw enough out of Miami last week to at least consider the possibility they can beat a depleted Steelers team. The Bengals, on the other hand, have no chance. At this point, I need to start looking at winning the whole thing. One of my pools requires picking two in a couple weeks (last week one of them). I actually did not use Buffalo because I need them for Week 11. I also need the Vikings for Week 11. So it's the Rams this week.

The only bet that jumps out at me right now is Seattle -3.5. I know it's a trap line just like Rams -3.5 at Atlanta was last week. But this Falcons team is as bad as the Dolphins/Redskins/Bengals, yet the oddsmakers do not treat it as such. Seattle is coming off a tough home loss. They will go out and establish the hell out of the run against Atlanta's league worst pass defense.

League MVP is Russell Wilson because he has one of the dumbest coaches in NFL history and STILL is putting up elite numbers.


Rabbitt:  I was on the Jags train last week, leaving me Buffalo for their next epic battle against Miami.

I think I take the Rams.  I just think this is a get right game for them.

I like the Jags quite a bit as a potential bet of the week.  I don't think the Jets can hang.  Another one that has my eye is Seattle -3.5.  I think everyone has the Seahawks lost last week syndrome, but the falcons are bad bad bad.

MVP... how about Kyle Shannahan.  Obviously, that’s not a real thing, but man is he good. There is a decent collection of talent there, but he really has things humming down there in a way no one else does. As a Broncos fan it hurts my heart to think "what if"

The only real answer to MVP right now with Mahomes hurt is Wilson.  Dude has been absolutely amazing. Recency bias makes you want to go Rodgers, but he didn't look very good before shredding Oakland.


RC: I’m going to use the Rams over Cincy…for sure if Dre Kirkpatrick and Will Jackson are out (which they should be). I’m going to play the Rams and not PITT or MIN for the following reasons…

1) Looking at the schedule, I’ll never use the Rams confidently with the rest of 2019 their schedule.

2) Pitt seems great over Miami, but the Dolphins have been scrappier lately and especially with Fitzmagic – and I don’t trust the Steelers yet, or their coaching staff. I think they could get got by Miami at home on MNF in front of their embarrassed fans.

I might can use Pitt Week 12 at Cincy or Week 16 the Jets if I’m running out of options as we go.

3) Minnesota would be my 2nd choice after the Rams, because I don’t see any great Vikings opportunity to use ahead. But MINN at home is always good…and Week 11 hosting Denver if the Broncos have traded Chris Harris and/or try to start Drew Lock. Week 14 hosting Detroit could be an emergency play late in the season.


My MVP candidates right now:

(1a) Lamar Jackson…he’s carrying a bad team with amazing individual performances.

(1b) Russell Wilson…ditto what Lamar is doing, but Seattle has been very lucky this season.

(3) Kirk Cousins…considering everyone tried to kill him off a month ago, and he’s been about the best QB in football since – good for him. Gutsy, resilient, a leader.

(4) Jacoby Brissett…what he’s done considering the circumstances is stunning. The Colts are better without Andrew Luck, honestly. But many others could come in and game manage this team too.

All QBs because none of the other positions in the NFL matter near as much.

My #5, only non-QB entry would be Saints CB Marcus Lattimore. What he’s been doing lately has been difference-making. 


Katz: I not only like the MVP candidates, but the way in which you went about it. The NFL MVP is a quarterback every year. Any consideration of other positions has to be in the context of "if it wasn't a quarterback."


Savage: It’s weird to call Wilson the MVP because Seattle could easily be 3-4 right now and then I don’t think anyone would care. I think Rodgers, Wilson, Jackson, and maybe even Watson are all neck and neck right now. The MVP just isn’t something you can win in 7 weeks, it’s a test of consistency and a player’s ability to adjust as the season progresses.

I’m considering Kansas City as a bet this week, especially if the line continues to climb in Green Bay’s favor. The Chiefs would have been 6 or 7 point favorites with Mahomes, so we’re seeing an adjustment of more than 10 points. I think that’s warranted in the long term, but in their first game with extra time to prepare I think KC might be able to scheme up some big plays. I’ll be at the game and am now terrified that I’m about to spend a bunch of money to see Matt Moore beat my favorite team.

For survivor, give me the Rams. The Bengals are too banged up to beat anyone right now.



About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>