2019 Handicapping Chat: Week 9 (Survivor, Best Bets, Misc.)...
All games ATS:
63-57-1 (52.5%) = Katz (7-8 last wk)
62-58-1 (51.7%) = Rabbitt (7-8 last wk)
62-58-1 (51.7%) = RC (7-8 last wk)
61-59-1 (50.8%) = Skol (7-8 last wk)
55-65-1 (45.8%) = Savage (7-8 last wk)
RC: Ummm... Week 9 and most of us are still alive/surviving in various survivor pools we're playing in and this 'advice' chat as well. This is getting serious and $$$ is in sight!
Things are changing fast...Miami is playing tougher, the Bengals are on a BYE and got a new QB, would love to attack Washington...but most of us used Buffalo already. There are no 10+ points favorites from Vegas so far (although SF-Arizona might be there soon enough, currently -9.5).
Plus, 2,000+ players on NFL rosters/payrolls and the trade deadline hit and so many deals to help so many teams that it really changes the landscape...*checks notes*, I mean no deals done to help any teams contend better...not a deal to be found among 2,000+ players this day (TUE).
What are the teams you are considering for Week 9 Survivor? Is it as simple as...you have to go San Francisco give we've all used Dallas, Buffalo, Seattle?
Looking over the lines...among the current underdogs +2 or more points -- if you have to choose one to win outright for a million dollar prize, what dog would you run with?
Katz: This is arguably the toughest week left. I am alive in two pools, one of which required a pick two in Week 8 and has another pick two in Week 11. I was hoping to save Buffalo until Week 11, but I don't think I have a choice anymore. I have to use them this week because I'm just not confident in anyone else. Case Keenum is still in the concussion protocol. If it's Dwayne Haskins, then Buffalo is the biggest lock of the week.
In my second pool, where it's just one a week, I used Buffalo in Week 8 because I didn't need to save them. In that pool, I'm going with San Francisco. I don't see any path to the Cardinals so much as scoring a touchdown this week. They have no prayer of winning.
As for your underdogs question, if Pat Mahomes doesn't play, it's Minnesota for sure. If he does play, then it's probably the Chargers.
Savage: It's very possible you still have Seattle available to you if you took the Eagles or Ravens in week 1 and took the Rams, Vikings, or Steelers last week. There isn't really a better spot to use the Seahawks unless you want to wait for week 16 against the Cardinals, and I'd much rather go against Jameis than Kyler. The 49ers still have a home game against the Cardinals and Falcons left on their schedule plus the uncertainty of a TNF road game this week, so I think I'd prefer to save them for later.
For the underdogs, I agree with Katz on the Chargers. The Packers keep coming up on the right side of games where one play or call might have made the difference. If they can struggle to beat Matt Moore and a banged-up Chiefs team, Phil Rivers and a banged up Chargers team have a shot to win too. I want to look into the Flacco to Brandon Allen transition a little more, but I also think the Broncos have a chance at a win as a home dog.
RC: I burned my Seattle card Week 1 sweating them over Cincy.
My Computer models are on fire for Carolina over Tennessee this week as a big blowout, with a good Carolina team just getting embarrassed and facing Tannehill, who barely beat Jameis. Any takers for Carolina as a survivor type pick?
I think the best underdog for an outright win could be the Jacksonville Jaguars...I just think they're a top-to-bottom better team than Houston and Houston is down Watt, 2-3 CBs, and maybe an OL. I also like that everyone keeps telling Houston how great they are...I think the Jags see this as their Super Bowl on their somewhat home turf in London. The Jags season changes dramatically on a win.
I also wonder if the Jets have trade-deadline-talked their way into getting their asses kicked by Miami this week. What a circus.
Katz: I like the Jaguars as well. As for survivor, I considered Carolina, but they play Washington on December 1. I'd like to have them available for that game.
Rabbitt: I like the 49ers tomorrow. Not many options at all. I definitely would not play Carolina, I'm just not a fan of the entire squad. Jacksonville is interesting.
Skol: I like Jacksonville (the team) and was looking at them this week as well but they are getting a lot of early betting attention so if that continues and they flip to small favorites before Sunday I’m likely out. They obviously could still win but I hate when that happens.
The Carolina issue is the run D has gone to hell since Short got hurt...that gives TEN a better chance than I initially wanted to believe.
If you’re not going SF, I totally agree with the anti-Haskins Buffalo play.
For my free million-dollar underdog (at least at this point in my research) I would roll with the Ravens in their home field black out Super Bowl. Jimmy Smith back and the Pats offense has been getting worse by the week.
Savage: I missed out on Jaguars +3 when it opened. At just +1 or +1.5 I don't like it enough to bet.
I need at least 6 or 7 points to bet on Miami right now. The way they started feeding Mark Walton in the 4th quarter on Monday night, down 10 points, pretty much proved to me that they're trying to lose. The Jets are too dumb to tank, plus Gase's job is on the line at this point and he probably wants to stick it to his old team. I want no part of that game.
Ravens/Patriots is by far the most interesting game this weekend. I can't wait to see how they defend Jackson. I want to no part of the Ravens... I still don't believe in Lamar if/when he needs to make throws. I feel I've seen this happen a hundred times - the Patriots get bet way down by a bunch of sharp action and then they come out and wallop whoever they're playing.