2019 Week 11: Three Things from all Sunday Games + Top 5’s of the Week (Waivers, Buy Low/Sell High, etc.)
Looks like another good week overall in FFM-land, in general, in our tracking of various leagues/formats/entry fees, etc. We’ve strung together some stronger weeks the past 3-4-5 weeks – as predicted, when the BYEs hit and the injuries and our depth and waiver moves started to impact more.
Please don’t tell me you luckily won this week despite this player or that player doing bad…there were low performances from stars all over the place. Not just for YOUR team. Again, it’s our depth and maneuvers that are giving the edge – all things you’ve evaluated and executed on purpose.
It’s Week 12…players are dropping like flies to injury + byes – all that and all the injuries all season – and yet most everyone reading this is still in the playoff hunt, or currently a playoff team (if the season ended now), or leading a division. Everyone in fantasy is dealing with issues…us and them. It’s the ‘game’. It’s maddening…and why we love it. We gotta keep grinding and searching and adjusting and seeking opportunity to get points…more points than the opponent. We have to be one-step smarter than the opposition and get to the ‘second season’ (the playoffs).
Keep chopping wood. It’s one of ‘those’ years. Nothing’s easy. No one seems to stay healthy for long.
-- Three Things from the Sunday Games --
-- The Ravens-DST pitched a virtual shutout, allowing a late garbage time score…a near shutout of what many thought was a great Houston offense. Because they can control the time of possession and with the talent who have gotten healthy plus the young guys elevated to starter – it’s a DST that is a start the rest of the season with their schedule.
-- Gus Edwards (8-112-1) ran for 100+ yards but it was mop up time work and a late 63-yard run against a disinterested/defeated Houston defense. Edwards has ‘hope’ every week for garbage time touches now that Baltimore is the elite team in the NFL.
-- Deshaun Watson (18-29 for 169 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) was squashed pretty well by the Ravens defense…on top of getting blown out, he also got his leg/ankle twisted up/landed on here. He will probably be limited in practice all week but fine to play…but a growing concern on the number of hits Watson is taking every week.
-- Brian Hill (15-30-0, 1-8-0/3) was the lead RB, but the-as-feared Qadree Ollison (4-11-1, 0-0-0/1) vulture TD happened. Hill did run for a score, but it got called back. This should be a 70-30 split with Hill-Ollison…with the risk Ollison gets hot and moves it to a 50/50 split at any time/random games.
-- Kyle Allen (31-50 for 325 yards, 0 TD/4 INT) has thrown for back-to-back 300+ yard games but has also thrown for 3 TDs/9 INTs his last 4 games. It’s all falling apart for Allen…finally exposed/revealed for who he is. A loss Week 12 may bring Will Grier into a look Week 13 v. WAS.
-- D.J. Moore (8-95-0/15) is America’s new Keenan Allen…a ton of catches/targets and not much for TDs. 7.0 rec., 86.3 yards, and 0.17 TDs per game the past six games. Teams are focusing on Samuel-Olsen-CMC and allowing DJM to stay in front of them…it works for DJM fantasy production. Not helping Curtis Samuel (4-25-0/7).
-- Get ready for Bo Scarborough-mania (14-55-1) on fantasy waivers this week. He’s a generic brand Derrick Henry…and he’ll get Henry comps all week long. He’s not as talented as Henry, as witnessed by his lack of ability to stick on an NFL roster. He was just picked up by Detroit, off the street, 2-3 weeks ago. The Lions run game is so bad, it doesn’t matter who is running the ball.
-- Amari Cooper (3-38-0/8) was playing hurt, coming out of the game in this one…leading to a Michael Gallup (9-148-0/13) monster game. If Cooper goes down, Gallup would be the new #1…just in time for @NE, BUF, @CHI, LAR the next 4 games.
-- Randall Cobb (4-115-1/7) continues his tear…5.3 rec (7.7 targets), 85.3 yards, 0.67 TDs per game the last three weeks. But a word of caution…the Gallup-Cobb-Dak run of late is on the backs of weak pass defenses. That all changes the next 3-4-5 weeks.
-- Jonathan Williams (13-116-0, 1-31-0/8) is a solid enough, 220-pound power runner…more on the slow side (4.6+ 40-time) but has some nimble feet and plays with energy/urgency. He really picked up the Colts run game once Marlon Mack (14-109-1, 1-31-0/1) went down…and Mack may be out for a few weeks. It’s going to be difficult to assess the value of Williams without Mack, because Jordan Wilkins could/will return from injury and Nyheim Hines (3-11-1, 3-24-0/4) sees touches too. We’ll sort it out this week.
-- D.J. Chark (8-104-2/15) answered the question of how his targeting would be affected by the return of Nick Foles (33-47 for 296 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT).
-- Why Jacksonville doesn’t fire Doug Marrone in-season and try to provide a spark, I do not know. The team has been flat for weeks now. The schedule ahead has ‘wins’ potential. The Jags look like they’ve quit. Unless a change is made this week, and that is possible, I have little interest in the Jags-DST in supposedly ‘good’ matchups ahead.
-- Miami is not quitting Kalen Ballage (9-9-1, 5-8-0/6) for reasons I will never understand. Patrick Laird (6-51-0/6) was very late junk time. De’Lance Turner was a ghost. Next week, it will be Ballage as all-in lead RB again no doubt.
-- When you’re trying to get better for next year/the future, you go heavy Ballage now and ignore the other RBs on the team…and then you sign Allen Hurns (4-53-0/6) to a big two-year extension. There are franchises that will never turn themselves around with current ownership who hire the stooges running personnel – Miami, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Jets. It’s not ‘bad luck’ if it’s happening for over a decade. Adam Gase has coached two of those teams in recent years… Hurns is suddenly a Fitzpatrick BFF target…a WR3-4 option in PPR ahead. Lot’s o’ garbage time ahead
-- Devin Singletary (15-75-0, 1-4-0/1) really looks terrific as lead RB…it’s just this offense is unpredictable in what they’re going to lean on for a plan. I’m still a buyer/believer in him as an RB2.
-- The Broncos proclaimed Phillip Lindsay (16-67-0, 2-8-0/2) to take more of a lead role now…because it’s important to tell your opponents what you are doing at all times, because it’s not like this is a competitive game or anything. The pregame statements were true here – Lindsay 16 carries, Royce Freeman 8. Both are good-to-great talents in the passing game but saw just a combined 3 targets between them.
-- Noah Fant (4-60-0/11) is becoming Brandon Allen’s 2nd-favorite target…and seeing how much attention Courtland Sutton (5-113-0/9) draws…Fant is becoming a top target count guy. FYI, Courtland Sutton is freaking amazing. What a performance here.
-- Olabisi Johnson (6-35-0/9) led the Vikings in targets and catches, but this is a blip. He’s not that good and when Adam Thielen returns, order will be restored.
-- O.J. Howard (0-0-0/1) bobbled a key catch and it flopped up into an interception…and then he was benched for the game. Cameron Brate (10-73-0/14) took advantage of the extra time, and I think Brate will start for TB from here on in…which makes him a TE1 threat week-to-week.
-- Scotty Miller (4-71-0/6) really looks solid as a WR option, but his targeting is still too erratic for FF usage but he’s creeping into the WR3 discussion (and has a legit future). He TB’s poor man’s Andy Isabella…but the Bucs actually try to use Miller.
-- Jared Cook (2-33-1/2) caught a sweep ‘up for grabs’ end zone toss to salvage his FF week. It’s going to be a bumpy ride with Cook, but I think he’s a top 7-8 fantasy TE ROS.
-- Derrius Guice (7-24-0, 1-45-1/2) looked about a thousand times better than Adrian Peterson (9-25-0, 2-5-0/2) here despite the fact that AP started and played much of the game…surprise, Washington lost. You want in on Guice ahead. He’ll be the lead from here on in, I bet. He looks very good. Like what Devin Singletary looks like vs. Frank Gore in Buffalo…only better.
-- I cannot deny Ryan Griffin (5-109-1/5) anymore. With no Chris Herndon Weeks 8-9-11, Griffin has averaged 5.0 rec. (5.7 targets), 75.0 yards, and 1.0 TDs per game in those three games. He’s a real TE1 threat ahead, I guess.
-- Josh Adams (4-6-0) played in this game and saw touches!!!! He had a sweet run called back by P.I., because I can never have nice things with Josh. Adams is not worth picking up yet, or probably at all this season…until Le’Veon gets hurt or a Week 17 start, if it happens.
-- I think we’ve finally hit ‘you don’t bench Kyler’ reality in fantasy. Kyler Murray (24-33 for 150 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 8-67-1) is getting better every week and facing SF twice in 3 weeks – 4 TDs/0 INTs, 70%+ Comp. Pct. in each game. It’s now game-on with Kyler as your franchise fantasy QB.
-- Kyler will be even better when Andy Isabella (1-6-0/4) is fully integrated, but there is something not right between Isabella-Kyler-Kliff. I’ll expand on it in the game analysis. Isabella and David Johnson are on a ‘pay no mind’ list for Joe Sunglasses head coach Kingsbury.
-- Jimmy Garoppolo (34-45 for 424 yards, 4 TDs/2 INT) has been pretty weak for FF this year…except for against the Arizona defense, which is the worst pass defense in the NFL by a mile (in my book). Consider ahead…
Goff at ARI Week 13
Baker at ARI Week 15
Garoppolo goes back to his normal QB2 ways now that there are no more ARI matchups coming this year.
-- Chalk up another good game for the Oakland-DST…held Ryan Finley to 115 yards passing and sacked him 5 times and turned him over twice. Week 12…Oakland at the Jets. Why not use another week?
-- Oakland rookie DE Maxx Crosby (5 tackles, 4 sacks, 3 TFLs)…I guess he isn’t an IDP stash name anymore. One of our top stash names from weeks ago is starting to blow up in a real IDP stalwart as a DL.
-- Joe Mixon (15-86-1, 1-17-0/3) is getting back to consistency…100+ yards rushing Week 10, a TD this week…3 TDs his last 4 games. It’s about the only thing working for the Bengals’ offense right now.
-- As I wrote about this week…I didn’t think the Mohamed Sanu (2-4-0/4) big event against the Ravens a few weeks ago was a foreshadowing of a great/consistent FF asset. He’s a WR3 hopeful in PPR is all.
-- I think there’s a chance Jordan Howard could be done for the year…or for many weeks. Make plans if you are holding him. We may not know for sure for another week or so. Jay Ajayi is not a real answer…nor is Miles Sanders (11-38-0, 2-9-0/4).
-- Tom Brady’s (26-47 for 216 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT) output is sinking fast – four games in a row under 300 yards passing and 4 TDs/3 INTs total the past five games. As he moves further and further from his cupcake schedule the truth is being revealed…he’s in decline worse than we want to believe.
-- The Mitch Trubisky (24-43 for 190 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) benching late is a definite sign that ‘it’s over’ with Trubisky-Nagy-Chicago. Trubisky should just retire after his contract runs out. He’ll make $29M over his entire rookie deal whether he stays on the roster next year or gets cut and gets paid out.
No team will take a chance on him from here. He might could go hold a clipboard for $1-2 million a year for another year or two, but really? You’ve made $29M in four years. Everyone in the media thinks your terrible, so the fans do too…which means all the NFL team GMs will believe it eternally. The odds you could have a Nick Foles redemption story is near 0%. Why not take your money, which I believe he has saved most of…and just pursue happiness elsewhere? Why slam your head up against a wall fighting an NFL that doesn’t want you? You could make as much money in interest on your banked millions as you will as an NFL backup annually.
-- Let Matt Nagy choke on Chase Daniel for a while…and the people can see that the majority issue all along was Nagy. With Chase Daniel, not a lot of FF projection changes...one of the worst offenses in the league stays terrible.
-- I’m not sure what’s worse…the Bears offense or the Rams offense? Jared Goff (11-18 for 173 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) has the excuse of missing two of his top receivers. The only reason to possess Goff, at this point, is to play him Week 13 at Arizona. All his other Week 12-16 games are not good matchups…and Goff/the Rams look terrible as it is.
I bet THEY (the football minds) try to come after Goff like they did Trubisky. They tried it before on Goff. The schedule and lack of O-Line and befuddling McVay offensive plans in 2019 are going to hand the media the gun they want to shoot him with, as they do. They tried to kill Kirk Cousins earlier this year…Goff will be their next big-ticket item to try to take down/tarnish the image of this year. I see the writing on the wall. Goff will overcome it over time unlike Trubisky who is totally dead man walking.
------ TOP FIVES ------
*BUY LOW means buy LOW(er) not PAY ANY PRICE TO GET SOMETHING DONE. We’re looking for opportunity, and it may or may not be there. But the window is more open than it was last week on these players, no matter the current (non-FFM) owners say.
**I know a lot of trade deadlines are past, but some have until this Wednesday (and beyond) so I will hit a few buy low/sell highs with some ‘buy low’ for dynasty/keeper with 2020 in mind type ideas.
Top 5 ‘Buy Low’
1) Derrius Guice, WAS – Flash forward to August 2020… The Redskins will have a new coach and another fresh start, and the fantasy world will have been discussing Derrius Guice as ‘the Redskins’ Ezekiel Elliott’ for months and Guice is pushed to a top 15-18 redraft ADP/ranking in PPR and non.
The future story is lost under the current weight of all his injuries and the ‘stink’ of the Redskins in general. Plus, for the ‘now’…Guice didn’t start this game, didn’t play until later, and isn’t the committed starter. YET. Once he is named starter by Callahan -- the price doubles. Get in while the price is down – this is a three-down franchise RB of the future available at a discount.
I’m not a huge fan of Guice, because of the off-field concerns…but he looks great on-field now -- but I know where this stock price is headed compared to where it is at now. I’ll buy into that.
THEIR Value = They know him. They know they are supposed to like him but he’s not a rookie anymore, so the new car smell isn’t as appealing as a 2020 draft pick or current rookie is…go take advantage ASAP! You might get for an RB2 price, and he’ll be useful in 2019 and be white hot to use/flip in 2020 when the media machine cranks up their odes to him in Washington. This is the moment if you want in…before he gets named starter this week.
2) Devin Singletary, BUF – The discount Derrius Guice…because he plays in Buffalo, no one cares as much. He is the main RB for a pro-run team. Yes, Frank Gore takes some snaps, but Singletary is the talent and the man. A Guice-Singletary backfield is about as promising as a Fournette-Barkley one right now. Guice and Singletary just don’t have the spotlight/attention yet…that’s why they are on ‘buy low’.
THEIR Value = RB2 with mixed confidence. Worst case, he really is an RB2 in PPR and non, but I think he’s more RB1-1.5 in the future here.
3) Christian Kirk, ARI – That Tampa Bay game was so long ago… No explosion vs. SF this week + THEY don’t really trust him + Arizona is not looked upon favorably + he’s on a BYE this week. Kirk is a WR1 PPR for the ROS and in 2020…you should’ve bought already the last 5x he was on this list.
THEIR Value = WR2 with a WR3 lean, not a WR1 lean.
4) T.Y. Hilton, IND – If you’re heading to the playoffs for sure, this is a veteran WR1 to get while he’s under the injury cloud. Current owner may need things NOW, and you can afford to wait a week if needed. This is a WR1 when back.
THEIR Value = WR1.5 or worse, you hope…a known WR1-ish player but with fears he is hurt and could get re-injured and the current owner cannot wait another week.
5) David Johnson, ARI – Season over? Rebuilding for 2020+? I assume David Johnson will either be traded/cut or the lead in Arizona in 2020. He’s going to be the lead somewhere. All his ‘0’ FF performances are killing current owners, many of whom are FFM’ers. He’ll be given away after this week by those still in the 2019 chase. He might make a nice Buccaneer in 2020.
THEIR Value = RB2…a current RB3-4-5 cancer but was an RB1…so that still tugs at owners. So, RB2 is the buy price.
Top 5 ‘Sell High’
1) Dak Prescott, DAL – I love Dak, but he’s on a hot streak totally schedule-based, and the schedule is about to turn on him. You don’t have to make this move, because Dak won’t collapse under it but he’s not a top 3 QB1 with it…he’s so hot right now it’s peak 2019 Dak value.
THEIR Value = Top 3 QB1.
2) Todd Gurley, LAR – They saw him get a lot of carries and a score on SNF…so, ‘he’s back’. He is not and that offense is terrible, and Gurley is getting overworked again. All kinds of risks with very little rewards.
THEIR Value = RB1 ‘Gurley is back’ because nothing FF owners love more than ‘high touch counts’…regardless of whether there is any fruit with them. Especially if they just watched it on national TV. Gurley is beloved for his high touch counts, and Carlos Hyde is on people’s benches. I don’t get FF people sometimes.
3) Jaylen Samuels, PIT – IF James Conner is out, and even if he’s ‘Questionable’, the Jaylen Samuels lovers will be out in full force. I know…I used to be one. Mike Tomlin is not a Jaylen lover and he’ll split his role if Conner is gone.
THEIR Value = RB2/salvation to the current Conner owner. Sell it like an RB1.5 – make them bleed for it.
4) Leonard Fournette, JAX – Jags season just about over. No reason for Fournette to put forth more effort or get 100 carries a game…he isn’t doing much with them anyway (that’s why he’s been on this list a few times lately). The name in 2019 is worth more than what he’s producing.
THEIR Value = Strong RB1 for them.
5) Will Fuller, HOU – For some reason, people think Will Fuller is like a star player about to return to battle. He sucks. He had one epic game and junk otherwise…but people think he’s a strong WR2 about to fall into their laps. You can mix him into multiplayer deals and have the receiving owner think he’s getting something great here in the deal.
THEIR Value = WR2. Why? I do not know.
Top 5 ‘Waivers to Trust’ (looking at players less than 50-60% owned on average)
1) Derrius Guice, WAS – For some reason, still under 50% owned universally…most of you cashed in on this (or he was gone) for weeks now as Guice has been #1 here for 2-3 weeks now.
2) Deebo Samuel, SF – Has become the SF #1 WR for Jimmy G. for the reasons I discussed on the Video Q&A Sunday morning…and Week 11 was more confirmation.
3) Noah Fant, DEN – Loved him since the preseason, and now he’s starting to get featured more than most every TE out there.
4) Bo Scarborough, TEN – This is the kind of runner Darrell Bevel dreams about in the shower. But all Detroit RBs are doomed in that offense. Still…’it’s touches’. Not great for PPR.
5) Jonathan Williams, IND – I like his talents and situation better than Scarborough, BUT there’s Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Himes and then Mack returns at some point.
6) Jacob Hollister, SEA – Hollister or Griffin or Brate? I like Hollister but Griffin legit ‘hope’ too. Brate is a wild card.
Top 5 ‘Waivers to Distrust’
1) Darius Slayton, NYG – Great Week 10. I thought it was coming due to who was out for NYG and what CBs were out for NYJ. He’s not a great receiver, he was just ‘of the moment’ against the Jets…which is like making a call on a WR facing Miami. 2nd week as #1 here.
2) Jay Ajayi, PHI – (1) He’s terrible. (2) The Eagles have too many other names at RB. (3) If Howard returns OK, Ajayi would be released.
3) Sam Darnold, NYJ – Nice game vs. Washington but I have no interest here. OAK-CIN-MIA is not as easy a stretch as it appears.
4) Tim Patrick, DEN – Solid WR, but this is the Sutton-Fant show #1-2 for targets in a low volume passing game. Patrick is an afterthought option who might have a game here and there.
5) Trey Edmunds, PIT – Could be named starter and everyone will freak out, but don’t overlook the fact he may be the worst RB in the NFL currently. Slow as death and would fight Jaylen for touches.
Top 5 ‘Deep Sleeper Plays on the Radar Screen’
1) Tony Pollard, DAL – I don’t really know who Christian McCaffrey’s or Todd Gurley’s handcuff truly is. But I do know Ezekiel Elliott’s is Pollard, and if Elliott goes down you get a smoking hot RB1 in your hands at the most critical time. If you have Elliott, and you don’t have Pollard…you’re taking a big risk.
2) Mecole Hardman, KC – Going to the FF playoffs? Tyreek Hill been hot for you? Do you need Curtis Samuel or some other rando #4-5 WR on your bench or should you handcuff Tyreek with that spot post-BYEs? The only kinda-sorta WR handcuff in existence.
3) Alex Erickson, CIN – If Auden Tate is out/gone, Erickson would be in a prime position for work.
4) Qadree Ollison, ATL – Could get into a 50-50 with Brian Hill.
5) Scotty Miller, TB – Tampa Bay’s Edelman if Winston could use it consistently.
6) Jeff Driskel, DET – Facing Washington this week…not bad for those needing a desperate Week 12 fix.
7) Boston Scott, PHI – If Jordan Howard goes on I.R. – Scott is the most talented RB the Eagles have. He won’t be a lead, but more a satellite PPR hope. Scott is like an Austin Ekeler waiting to happen…but won’t in Philly.
8) Kerrith Whyte, PIT – Just activated by the Steelers. If Conner goes on I.R., Whyte will get some satellite RB touches (from Jaylen) and then ‘who knows’. He’s a speedster back like a skinny Boston Scott.
9) Mike Davis, CAR – Maybe is the McCaffrey handcuff?
10) Damion Willis, CIN – If Auden Tate goes down and out, and if Erickson is having back issues…Willis was Ryan Finley’s best target in the preseason.
Top 5 ‘Just Quit On Them’ Players: (listing better names here this week…not always that you MUST quit, but in 10-12 team leagues, ‘names’ we’re holding onto out of habit that we might need to leave)
1) De’Lance Turner, MIA – No touches 2nd week in a row. I can take a hint. Mark Walton back in two weeks.
2) Myles Gaskin, MIA – Enjoy the XFL, Myles.
3) O.J. Howard, TB – Benched Week 11…he’s been beyond done this season.
4) Zach Pascal, IND – Got his big chance with TYH and Parris out, and was a big/epic fail.
5) Ty Johnson, DET – It’s all about Bo Scarborough now. Sayonara, Ty.
Top 5 DSTs Off Waivers (maybe on waivers) to Consider:
*All these options, just putting the list together and seeing the details – it sucks. Really not excited about any one thing here now…
1) Browns-DST – They finally had ‘that game’, and then they ruined it with the Myles Garrett debacle. Well, they’re still pretty solid across the board with talent on defense without Garrett. I’m not as in-love as I was but hosting Miami and then the war at PIT Week 13 and then hosting Cincy Week 14 – the next three weeks are useful/have upside.
2) Eagles-DST – Three straight opponents held under 20 points, coinciding with their starting CBs getting healthy/back. Week 12 vs. SEA is no good, but Weeks 13-15 are AWESOME…@MIA-NYG-@WAS
3) Falcons-DST – They just held New Orleans to 9 pts and Carolina to 3 points…both on the road. The Falcons-DST hasn’t allowed a TD since Week 8 (had a Week 9 BYE). Week 12…home with the human turnover machine Jameis Winston. The TB game kicks off a three game homestand with TB-NO-CAR. Weeks 12 and 14…you might could actually use the ATL-DST with some confidence?
4) Lions-DST – Hey, next two weeks…@WAS, hosting CHI on Thanksgiving. Opportunity for two games.
5) Packers-DST – Weeks 13-15 with @NYG, WAS, CHI is awesome…and Week 12 at SF isn’t totally terrible.
6) Cowboys-DST – Weeks 13-15 with BUF-@CHI-LAR isn’t bad, and even Week 12 at NE isn’t horrible these days. More for Weeks 13-14.
7) Jets-DST – Week 12 hosting OAK is ‘meh’, but then Week 13 at Cincy and Week 14 hosting Miami in the cold…not bad.