2019 Week 13: Three Things from all Sunday Games + Top 5’s of the Week (Waivers, Buy Low/Sell High, etc.)
I am truly stunned by this week in FFM-land.
This could end up the single best win rate% of any week this 2019 season, and it makes no sense…but then again it makes a lot of sense.
When I was watching the 1pmET games, everything was going OK for ‘typical’ FFM players (and Guice was popping and Singletary had a nice THU)…but most of the players people were asking about all week were not playing until 4pmET (Kyler, Waller, Tyreek, Mahomes, Woods, Sutton, Drake, Kirk, etc.).
1pmET games were going well, not crazy scoring from the more non-FFM players so the projected scoring was tipping in our favor all 1-4pmET…but then I watched Kyler flopping around at 4pmET+ and then I was thinking everyone was in trouble. I was so hyper focused/pissed on Kyler that I wasn’t really soaking in that Woods and Sutton and others were producing so well…and that we all moved away from bad matchups like Kirk for guys like Woods or Sutton or Waller/Flex, etc.
The scoring from non-QBs was so strong, by and large, compared to the competition that it ended up a great Sunday…or everything looks great right now, just need Wilson or Cousins and/or Lockett to do just ‘a little’/anything to lock in victories.
All I can say is ‘Congrats’! A lot of people won their ‘win and in’ or locked down a BYE.
If you lost this week and you didn’t make a playoff because of it…I’m not ignoring your plight. I’m just looking at the trend numbers and feedback tracking, an overall very good week – a nice bounce back from last week’s ‘meh’.
The FFM-based team/tracking trend this season overall was a wobbly start, missing Tyreek killing many early, and then a great sprint in four of the last 5 weeks to qualify for playoffs and/or achieve BYE weeks. No season long scoring records like last year for the season, but this nice finishing spurt got a pretty high percentage of FFM-tracked teams into the playoffs. The average record after 13 games this season is 7.8 wins and 5.2 losses…spanning all formats and degree of difficulty levels. I like that number to average above 8 wins but considering all the key injuries in-game this year…I’ll take it, and a heavy majority making the playoffs.
Most people are starting their playoffs Week 14 (or got a BYE), some have another week before the playoffs begin, some just won their high stakes leagues that the playoffs started last week and had league championships this week and are onto the champion’s rounds. The ‘second season’ is in full effect! Now, here comes the hard work of making that title run.
Here we go!
Enjoy the playoff qualify! The planning to win them this week -- starts, right now…
-- Raheem Mostert (19-146-1, 2-8-0/2) will be an interesting case for waivers this week. Big game against a tough opponent. Tevin Coleman (5-6-0, 1-9-0/1) has died. Mostert v. Coleman = Mostert. However, once Matt Breida returns, likely this week – it’s Breida as the 60/40 lead over Mostert…at best, for Mostert. Throw Coleman getting some touches into the mix…and it’s all a mess.
-- I didn’t like Marquise Brown (1-1-0/2) for this game, but I thought he’d do better than a yard and a catch. Bad matchup + pouring rain. I don’t want to panic too hard, but this is five of his last 6 games with 5 or fewer targets. He’s more WR3 than WR2 right now…the Ravens are too efficient to need to lean on Marquise heavy…that hurts him for FF.
-- Deebo Samuel (2-41-1/6) is really catching fire, but more importantly…I do believe he has become Jimmy G.’s ‘guy’. Once they work normal weather, full health (Deebo there now), and a solid+ matchups…he’s a WR1.5-2.0 for PPR in favorable conditions.
-- Great game from Derrius Guice (10-129-2, 2-8-0/3) at just the right time, but I was hoping we’d see Guice taking another step towards being the main carry guy…but it is not happening. Guice popped a 60-yard run early in this game and I thought, “Here we go!” and then he disappears from the game for chunks/series at a time. Great game, but still just a backup to Adrian Peterson (13-91-1, 0-0-0/1).
-- As I thought, and it was an easy call to make but still it totally shocks me – Curtis Samuel (4-65-1/7) took 4 carries last week for 7+ yards every touch…and seeing that, Norv Turner went with NO carries this week for Samuel. Hey, who wants to do anything successful anyway! Nice win over sad Washington! Oh, that’s right – you lost. How many times did Christian McCaffrey get stuffed at the goal line in this game…because everyone on the planet knows you’re going to do it?
-- 3rd-straight start with Dwayne Haskins (13-25 for 147 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) under 55% Comp. Pct. in the game and just 2 TDs/2 INTs total with all games under 215 yards passing – and yet he’s won two of his last 3. He’s the top QB to targets for your opposing DST still.
-- Jamison Crowder (2-8-0/9) is doing his typical disappearing act. He has good games, everyone gets excited, they jam him into lineups in reaction…and then Crowder takes a powder. 4 catches on 13 targets total the last two games.
-- Le’Veon Bell (10-32-0, 4-35-0/5) high for a game rushing this season is 70 yards. Against the #32 run defense in the league, here, he posted 32 yards rushing on 3.2 ypc. Money well spent by the Jets.
-- Andy Dalton (22-37 for 243 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) came back and got a ‘big’ win, but he’s just not a viable FF option…6 TDs/7 INTs in his last seven starts working behind a terrible offensive line. It mutes the WR group for upside as well.
-- Ryan Tannehill (17-22 for 182 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) did it again…two more passing TDs in a game. Another 70%+ Comp. Pct. game. Another win. AND…a great schedule the next two weeks: @OAK and HOU ahead.
-- Well, that was fun while it lasted…Jonathan Williams (8-14-0, 1-11-0/1) goes back to nothing after rushing for 100+ yards the prior week. Marlon Mack should take the reins back next week.
-- A.J. Brown (3-45-0/4) had a let down this week. Here’s the weird part…he led all Titans receivers in the game, but with just 4 targets. Low volume he has to make hay out of, which he has been on and off. I thought he’d see a few more targets here and going forward…now, it looks shaky. 4-5-4 for targets the last 3 games for AJB.
-- That was the worst game I’ve seen from Nick Foles (7-14 for 93 yards, 0 TD/1 INT)…surpassing when I said that last week. The Jags have no O-Line protection, so Foles has no time and he is anticipating the hits every time he drops back. He is useless for this Jags offense right now. They should go to Gardner Minshew (16-27 for 147 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) next week and for the rest of the season/history but they may not do that for another few weeks – Minshew maneuvers out of trouble with his feet and Foles cannot. The future is Minshew minus Marrone. It’s coming in another month…
-- I guess Ronald Jones (6-8-0) is no longer the starter? Peyton Barber (17-44-2) is suddenly back. Combined 23 carries for 52 yards between them against the worst run defense I watched week-to-week? Terrible run game I want nothing to do with for fantasy (until David Johnson is traded here in the offseason).
-- D.J. Chark (2-47-0/5) is paying the price for the collapsing pass game under Foles the last two weeks. He needs Minshew back in, or I have to downgrade DJC ahead. Foles has no pocket time to make DJC for FF numbers consistently.
-- Kalen Ballage (3-0-0, 0-0-0/1) got hurt and left the game early and Patrick Laird (10-5-1, 4-43-0/5) got the extra work, but went nowhere with this awful run blocking team. There is literally no hope with any of these Miami RBs.
-- DeVante Parker (7-159-2/10) had his best game I’ve seen with my eyes in a long time. He’s had good numbers in a game before, but this game he produced several good, tough, dazzling catches. I’ve not seen him play like this in a while. It will help get him paid in free agency ahead (and then he can re-disappear). You have to assume it keeps working the next few games in 2019.
-- Carson Wentz (28-46 for 310 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) had sweet numbers, but in reality he played pretty poorly (to my eyes). His troubling play continues. Now, I think Philly fans can start to worry. He was missing key WRs and OLs in his prior flops, so I wanted to hold off piling on…but, man, he did not look great here at all – sailing passes, throwing way too short, trouble with precision against a defense that is a nothing.
-- It was a sloppy weather game, but I see a connection between Daniel Jones and Sterling Shepard (3-40-1/7) every time I see them work together (which has been rare because of SS injury). When surroundings are more normal, I think Shepard is going to have some nice PPR numbers ahead…good catch counts in these stacked-against NYG run game and frequent deficits forcing more junk passing.
-- NYG TE Kaden Smith (6-70-0/8) had his second decent game in a row, as the sudden TE starter. He has good hands. He’s not much after that but with the team throwing a healthy amount…Smith is something. Not nothing. No real big upside now or later, though.
-- Allen Lazard (3-103-1/3) had a sensational diving catch early in this game and then got open for a 40+ yard bomb TD…and I thought, “Here we go!” And then Rodgers totally forgot about him the rest of the game, apparently. I love Lazard, but I don’t see any real movement towards him by this offense in 2019.
-- Now, it’s time to worry on everything Cleveland. This team’s season ended here, and now the WRs can officially checkout and Baker Mayfield (18-32 for 196 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) can keep himself safe and not take any hits, and get to the offseason and try to get himself traded off this team – which I think will happen if the GM is fired with the head coach. My projections will be fading everything CLE ahead. But, man, that Week 15 v. ARI looks super juicy…might hold in for that one.
-- Devlin Hodges (14-21 for 212 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) has two types of throws…little dump passes near the LOS or ‘close my eyes and throw deep’. Credit to him, he hit James Washington (4-111-1/4) with one, again…but how can this keep up?
-- Nick Chubb (16-58-0, 1-21-0/2) got 17 touches in this game and Kareem Hunt (7-46-0, 5-19-1/5) got 12 touches. The gap between their touches has been closing for weeks. Like a 60/40 split (considering catches). I wonder if Kitchens will go heavier Chubb, knowing he’s about to get fired at season’s end or if he moves towards a full split between them? I’m trying to figure out where his loyalties lie? I think he’s all-in on Chubb, but we’ll see. Kitchens has no reason to reward Hunt or promote him for the browns’ future to trade, etc.
-- Kyler Murray (19-34 for 163 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 4-28-1) salvaged a total disaster with a late rushing TD. Murray looked like he’d rather be anywhere but playing football this day. He was getting his hamstring treated during the game but looked fine on the field. I’m not sure what his issue was…but he looked totally disengaged for 2-3 quarters.
-- Robert Woods (13-172-0/19) saved the day/week with this PPR performance. The biggest question we had on our Video Q&As Sunday morning was about Woods v. Sutton v. Guice v. C. Samuel v. Kirk, which is hilarious…because they all scored nicely (except one) but Woods was the one Jason Katz and I pushed over all of them…and that saved a lot of people’s bacon/made up pts from the Kyler dud. He’s the guy for Goff when he’s not pushing Cooper Kupp.
-- Woods goes off, Kupp has a nice day, Tyler Higbee (7-107-1/8) has a career day…it was all great against the awful Cardinals pass defense…all except for Brandin Cooks (2-24-0/2). If you needed any more reasons why you can cut him…here it is. He does not matter to this offense.
-- Tyrell Williams (1-9-0/4) has fallen down a well. He’s gone M.I.A. after a hot start to the season. I’m not sure what has happened, but it gets uglier every week. He looks fine moving around. No special coverages on him, per se. Just his targets are shrinking…as Derek Carr goes back to being Derek Carr, is the main reason perhaps.
-- Bad weather. Big need to run the ball in spots. Damien Williams inactive, and may be out for weeks. KC needed an RB to take control…
LeSean McCoy (5-10-1, 3-20-0/3)
Darrel Williams (6-13-0, 1-3-1/2)
11 carries for 23 yards combined?
Next week, if no Damien…don’t ask me which one of these two will matter vs. NE. I’ll stick to my answer for weeks…none…even when Damien is back
If Darrel Williams is now hurt/out, let the Darwin Thompson hysteria begin!
-- Sammy Watkins (0-0-0/3).
No comments. Just wanted to post that.
Ok, comments…this was the guy KC paid tens of millions to as soon as 2018 free agency opened up? A guy who works with the benefit of Tyreek taking all the coverage and working with the best passer of our generation – and this is the game we get? The whole season, since Week 1, has been a total mess from Watkins…AGAIN.
-- Drew Lock (18-28 for 134 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) had a couple good throws early on and then he sagged from there. Going to be a rocky road ahead for him…a QB/offense to target for decent opposing DSTs.
-- Courtland Sutton (4-74-2/5) bailed him out for Lock’s 1st TD…an amazing end zone catch. Sutton is getting to be too good to bench but, boy, these low targets and miracle catches…hard to count on week in-and-out. But, like with Kenny Golladay…they tend to make a big play to make it FF-worth it.
-- I detect, in his body language, that Philip Rivers (20-29 for 265 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) senses it’s over for him with LAC. He’s no longer ‘the face’ of the team. He’ll be moving on next year. People seem to be moving around him differently on the sidelines, not paying him as much mind…like he’s more or a leper than a leader. And Rivers didn’t seem to be himself either.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Tyrod Taylor took over next week, but I suspect they’ll probably just let Rivers play out if he wants to…out of respect. If Tyrod takes over…your Hunter Henry, Austin Ekeler, and Keenan Allen assets are in real trouble.
-- When Tom Brady/the offense is struggling and/or the team is down is chasing the opponent…you get a lot of James White (14-79-0, 8-98-2/11). Next week…Patriots at Chiefs…another prime spot for this to happen.
*Also, we’ve now moved towards Week 16 Bills at Patriots is for the AFC East title!!
-- What did I say? Will Fuller (1-8-0/2). He does this all the time…great game followed by 3-4-5 games of a disappearing act. He is Ted Ginn with dreadlocks. You wonder why you lost Week 12…you might have faced Fuller. Wonder why you won Week 13 despite lower scoring…everyone jammed Fuller into their lineups for sure this week after the prior output.
-- In the last four weeks, the Patriots have lost twice and allowed 28 points (HOU) and 37 points (BAL) doing so. What do you think the Pats-DST will allow vs. KC this week? Early forecast is cold and clear (30s).
------ TOP FIVES ------
*BUY LOW means buy LOW(er) not PAY ANY PRICE TO GET SOMETHING DONE. We’re looking for opportunity, and it may or may not be there. But the window is more open than it was last week on these players, no matter the current (non-FFM) owners say.
**I know a lot of trade deadlines are past, so I will hit a few buy low/sell highs with some ‘buy low’ for dynasty/keeper with 2020 in mind type ideas. Dynasty leagues are more apt to have trading still open.
Top 5 ‘Buy Low’
1) Alvin Kamara, NO – Two TDs this season and it’s been 9 weeks since he last scored a TD. Do you believe this is a bit fluky/an aberration? I do. His current owners like and respect him, but this season he’s not delivered for them like he has before.
Do you want to buy a strong RB1 in PPR at some kind of discount? The time is now…if there ever is going to be a time.
THEIR Value = RB1 in PPR, but achievable/gettable now if you have the pieces to move for him. Use those flashy WRs out of your depth + things to ring the bell.
2) Kareem Hunt, CLE – People like they name but they see him as the handcuff for Chubb, which he is kinda. He’s producing as a PPR back, so he has elevated value. The real value is – if Cleveland dumps the HC and GM, the GM being gone is the important part, then Hunt could be traded in a big deal to a team where he’s instantly a fantasy RB1 valuation.
THEIR Value = RB1.5-2.0 that THEY might not see the future potential on as fully.
3) Christian Kirk, ARI – Respected, but not fully respected. People see a solid WR2 in PPR…a guy who had a great game a few weeks ago, but that’s drifting from their memory banks. For me, Kirk is a WR1 threat in PPR in 2020.
THEIR Value = WR2 with a lean towards WR3 since the Rams debacle. Time to get a bargain for those who missed out the first three times Kirk was a bargain.
4) D.J. Chark, JAX – When guys like Sutton, Kirk, Chark have a bad week(s), THEY bail on him for fear that they are not an accepted-by-the-mainstream name like Keenan Allen or JuJu Smith-Schuster, etc. They instantly go from ‘bright future’ to ‘suspect’ in a week (and back again). It’s Chark’s doubt period this week.
THEIR Value = WR2 that they fear the QB situation on. I’m good because Minshew is coming back now or to start 2020.
5) Terry McLaurin, WAS – OK, his value is starting to sink…the Haskins effect has started to take hold. If you want in cheap, now is the time. If/when the new Redskins regime dumps Haskins (or just goes with any other QB) – McLaurin races back to a WR1.5/future star.
THEIR Value = WR2 and falling with Haskins’s ‘stink’ all over him.
Top 5 ‘Sell High’
1) Keenan Allen, LAC – If he loses Philip Rivers, he loses his oxygen…he loses the thing that made him a strong WR1 in PPR in spurts. You want Rivers + Keenan, you don’t want Tyrod + Keenan or rookie + Keenan in the future. Sell hot before this is more talked about.
THEIR Value = WR1.5, a staple WR everyone loves. You can use Keenan to get into the era WRs when they’ve had a bad game (Chark, Sutton, Golladay, Kirk) and maybe get more with it too.
2) Alshon Jeffrey, PHI – Nothing wrong with Jeffrey, the talent is fine today…but two things: (1) He’s getting up there in WR years. (2) Wentz is struggling. (3) One great game against Miami doesn’t fix all the issues. He’ll be nice Weeks 14-15…so keep him if you’re in the title hunt, but if you’re out of it – sell hot to someone still in it.
THEIR Value = WR1.5 they respect and see what he did vs. Miami this week.
3) Drew Lock, DEN – People love rookies, and Lock had a not-bad statistical debut. He looks like the clear future for Denver to THEM, as of today. I think this story unravels a bit ahead. Now is the time to strike.
THEIR Value = QB2, but a rookie and a ‘name’ better than Haskins or even Minshew, etc., for them.
4) Anthony Miller, CHI – You trust the Bears passing game in the future…a week from now or a year from now? And I don’t trust Anthony Miller all that much either. He’s OK, but OK talent + Nagy + Bears = no, thanks.
THEIR Value = WR2.5 but they’ve been told he’s a future star…the future #1 for the Bears.
5) James Washington, PIT – Devlin Hodges is dink-n-blind bomb QB…and one time per game, the past two weeks, one of those blind bombs landed with Washington. You can’t build anything for FF off this type of luck with a bad QB. Get out now on top. Next year, JuJu and Diontae will rule with Ben.
THEIR Value = WR3 but doing well of late so they hope that continues. He’s a fine thrown in or quick sale for a mid-level dynasty rookie draft pick, etc.
Top 5 ‘Waivers to Trust’ (looking at players less than 50-60% owned on average)
1) Derrius Guice, WAS – His % of ownership fell last week, so he’s back on the list. We’ve had him here at #1-2 for like five weeks. I hope it’s not FFMers who kept bypassing him!!!
2) Jack Doyle, IND – A solid PPR back-end TE1 ROS with Ebron gone. The original Will Dissly.
3) Darwin Thompson, KC – Add more confusion to the already confusing backfield in KC. I think Damien Williams might be out for a while, and Darrel Williams might be out this week -- so Darwin has a window now…and people love him, so he has value to trade. I think he’s an RB3 flyer at best in a confusing KC backfield all 2019.
4) Sterling Shepard, NYG – The #1 WR for a team that has to throw a lot in garbage time is worth something?
5) A.J. Brown, TEN – Week 13 was a dud, but he’s still the #1 look for a team with a favorable schedule the next two weeks.
6) Ryan Tannehill, TEN – He keeps working. Even when he’s on the verge of a QB2 event…in the last minute or two he always pulls something out of his FF-arse to get him to QB1.
Top 5 ‘Waivers to Distrust’
1) Tyler Higbee, LAR – Had his nice game vs. the Arizona defense we all know about with TEs. Time to move on. I have more faith in Jack Doyle or Mike Gesicki.
2) Zach Pascal, IND – You’re not fooling me again.
3) Peyton Barber, TB – I don’t want two things from 2019 Tampa Bay: (1) Their TEs for FF. (2) Their RBs for FF.
4) Patrick Laird, MIA – You cannot be a breakout star RB playing for this team. I don’t care if Ballage is gone for a week (if). Laird will then have 8 carries for 10 yards and 4 catches for 15 yards in his place. Big deal.
5) Jordan Wilkins, IND – We just gonna go from Hines-to-Williams-to-Wilkins? We just gonna chase Indy backup RBs? It’s Marlon Mack as an RB2 and then an RBBC behind him. No, thanks.
6) Raheem Mostert, SF – How many times have you been suckered into the 49ers’ backfield? With Tevin? With Breida? With Mostert during BYE weeks? Have you ever guessed right once? Twice?
Top 5 ‘Deep Sleeper Plays on the Radar Screen’
*Not going to put handcuffs on here anymore…if you haven’t done this already, then so be it.
1) Parris Campbell, IND – The Colts are dying, and one of the reasons is – lack of big plays. Might Parris Campbell come in and be forced more touches to get the offense going…through bubbles and jet sweeps? It was starting to percolate before he broke his hand. What If TYH doesn’t come back/come back ‘right’?
2) Mecole Hardman, KC – If you have Tyreek Hill…this is the one true WR handcuff in fantasy. Not a great one but is one. What Sammy Watkins is going to thrive with Tyreek out?
3) Duke Johnson, HOU – An emerging James White-ish option for Houston. It had been erratic for touches/output, but it’s getting more consistent the past 4-5 games.
4) Gardner Minshew, JAX – Potential starting QB Week 14…or Week 15…or Week 16, if needed in 2QB leagues.
5) Albert Wilson, MIA – Suddenly, it’s Miami’s top go-to RB and side work WR. Two carries for 31 yards last week along with 5 catches.
6) Auden Tate, CIN – Looked nice as the Boyd alternative option for Dalton…Tate is getting to be the ultimate this guy…team always down/always throwing late + great #1 WR opponent focuses on + the next best option for the QB. Like a better Anthony Miller or Russell Gage from this past week.
7) Tyrod Taylor, LAC – Need a QB in a 2QB league…Tyrod might be starting in a week if Rivers has another dud.
Top 5 ‘Just Quit On Them’ Players: (listing better names here this week…not always that you MUST quit, but in 10-12 team leagues, ‘names’ we’re holding onto out of habit that we might need to leave)
1) Matt Stafford, DET – He’s not coming back this year. There’s no reason.
2) Jay Ajayi, PHI – No Howard, playing his old team this week…and gets just two carries? He ain’t the answer or split with Sanders. Like the Bears, the Eagles are going to show you how great their pick of Sanders was, whether you like it or not. Nice loss to Miami! I don’t like Ajayi at all, but I thought he’d get some more work here…they didn’t want him.
3) A.J. Green, CIN – He’s not coming back either. What he comes back next week and does what? Is an instant WR1? It’s not 2014-2017 anymore.
4) De’Lance Turner, MIA – Ballage hurt, Turner sees no work…OK, message received after three weeks.
5) Diontae Johnson, PIT – ‘Duck’ Hodges is the worst for a professional WR like Diontae.
Top 5 DSTs Off Waivers (maybe on waivers) to Consider:
*All these options, just putting the list together and seeing the details – it sucks. Really not excited about any one thing here now…
1) Chiefs-DST – As soon as you start to like the KC-DST, they burn you. You ignore them, and suddenly they are great. There are a lot of good pieces on this defense, for FF. This week at NE isn’t that harrowing. Weeks 15-16 is the ticket, though…DEN and @CHI.
2) Packers-DST – Weeks 14-15…hosting WAS, CHI. A solid, gambling defense gets a nice schedule ahead.
3) Vikings-DST – Weeks 14-15 vs. DET and at LAC is opportunity.
4) Jets-DST – Hosting Miami in the cold. I don’t love it, but it’s probably a top 10 DST projection for the week.
5) Chargers-DST – If you can get them facing Foles, not Minshew Week 14…you might have a sack-fest again vs. Jags.
6) Titans-DST – This defense is starting to hum a little bit. You might get a decent game with at Oakland Week 14, but I don’t love it. Then HOU-NO-HOU to finish, which is no good.
7) Broncos-DST – Week 16 hosting Detroit is their only value, looking ahead.