2019 Week 14: Three Things from all Sunday Games + Top 5’s of the Week (Waivers, Buy Low/Sell High, etc.)
Week 13 was one of the best weeks of 2019 for FFM’ers, and that is followed by this Week 14 mess…one of the worst, projected win%-wise weeks of 2019 for us. We might not see 50% of teams as winners this week in our FFM league tracing unless the Eagles-DST scores a little/lot above projections tonight, along with some other things that need to happen for us or TO our opponents.
Everybody has a different reason(s) to blame for their loss the week, if you lost. Some players got hurt in-game again. Various matchups hurt you/helped opponents this week (where it was the opposite last week). Some players just sucked. It was just ‘one of those weeks’, at absolutely the wrong time.
Really, I’m assigning the blame for losses (in general) to something that I guess is poetic justice for me…I got beat at quarterback. I place a heavy emphasis on the value of the QB in fantasy, and spent the offseason chasing the top names and was willing to pay more for them (draft round or auction or via trade). Hot QBs can change weeks, cover sins elsewhere. This Week 14, almost all the QBs I don’t normally roll with had explosive weeks…the Brees (1 TD the week prior), Winston (no TDs the week prior), Watson types as my Murray, Mahomes, Baker guys were a fraction of other’s production this week…and then my Tyreek’s, Waller’s, etc., didn’t do enough to make up the gap.
Beaten at QB in the playoffs after trying to position myself with the explosive QBs in 2019…irony is so ironic. But it goes to my point/economic and statistical belief…powerful QBs have much more sway on fantasy outcomes than they are valued in the mainstream in the preseasons. You just gotta get to the right QBs. I did last year, and it was record setting and/or glorious for many of us. I didn’t hit it well this year.
If this type of week happens in Week 8 -- we get mad and shrug and move onto Week 9. In Week 14, if it was your playoff week…it’s over. Over with a resounding thud.
On to the positives…
There were/are winners among us. Those that went Ryan Tannehill over Kyler per our projections – and thus a totally different day. Those that stuck by our A.J. Brown call from a few weeks ago…game changer. The positioning into DeAndre Washington for a 4pmET decision instead of Powell-Laird-Snell types…or going Washington over chasing Richard – that snuck some through.
Week 13 was awesome, Week 14 not so much. We still got some hope tonight with the Philly-DST for some, and then I’m seeing a lot more Alshon Jeffrey or Sterling Shepard long shot hopes (if they can get a 20+ point PPR night).
I’m not going to fully cry about Week 14 until the books close, but this looks like a bloody mess for half of playoff players among us reading this…but let’s stay positive for tonight for those who need a big PHI-DST, Jeffrey, or Shepard night…or (I see a lot of) those needing a colder Wentz, Barkley, or Sanders event you’re going against.
Good luck to all of us on all of that…I know I’ve got a lot riding on the Eagles-DST. If they score a defensive or special teams TD, that sonic boom scream you’ll hear right after is coming from my office. And if Eli throws a TD first drive…you’ll hear another sound occurring.
Good luck tonight to those that need it, and then we’ll turn the focus to Week 15 for the next round of the playoff survivors and all my BYE week people who avoided this Week 14 mess.
-- THREE THINGS from each Sunday game --
-- I want to say you can throw Baker Mayfield (11-24 for 192 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) in the trash but as terrible as the Browns and Baker and Odell Beckham (2-39-0/5) are at football…they face an even worse team/coached team next week in Arizona.
Arizona’s pass defense is like facing air…just free, uncovered throws all over. However, Baker cannot complete passes to anyone because he’s mostly looking/forcing the ball to whiny WRs and I’m not sure OBJ can catch a pass wide-open on a live field.
I’m not sure which side of two awful events facing each other any of us should choose. It will be a big item/issue for the first Week 15 projections of the week.
-- I don’t have the snap counts as of typing this, but I know it sure looked like the Browns/Freddie Kitchens would like to go Kareem Hunt (9-28-1, 2-40-0/3) as much/more than they roll Nick Chubb (15-106-0, 1-11-0/1). This appears to be a split backfield that favors Hunt as a receiver going forward.
-- John Ross (2-28-0/3) was a ghost most of this return-from-injury game, but Auden Tate (1-16-0/4) wasn’t much better and got hurt in this game. If Tate is out, Ross would have some extra opportunity…but next week they face the Patriots.
-- Devin Singletary (17-89-0, 6-29-0/8) got 23 touches in this game to Frank Gore’s 4. This is fully Singletary’s backfield and he is a RB1-2 each week, and a strong RB1 candidate in all formats in 2020. He’s as good a looking a young runner as I’ve seen in a while…as far as vision and agility to make tacklers miss.
-- Mark Andrews (1-14-0/3) got hurt in this game. If he misses time, Hayden Hurst (3-73-1/3) could assume that receiving TE role more, and actually be better at it. Hurst is a very athletic tight end and had a terrific 61-yard TD here.
-- Marquise Brown (3-0-0/3) has done nothing the last two games but note he did work against SF in the pouring rain two weeks ago and then top pass D Buffalo here. However, he’s still not 100% healthy, it appears, and Lamar doesn’t lean on him like you want for FF. He’s a WR3 with upside week-to-week.
-- Ian Thomas (5-57-1/10) looked great, a nice a future as a potential TE1 whenever Greg Olsen (DNP) gets gone (which should be after this season). As far as 2019, as soon as Olsen returns…Norv Turner will yank Thomas and go all Olsen.
-- There was some discussion in this game of new O-C Scott Turner talking about using Curtis Samuel (3-17-0, 2-25-0/4) more as a runner more…singling out his ability in college as an RB. I was excited, and then we saw a half-hearted effort at it…and another Samuel open on a bomb and Kyle Allen overthrowing the easy TD occurred in this game. Heartbreaking.
-- Late in the game UDFA rookie ATL WR Olamide Zaccheaus (1-93-1/2) caught a pass and broke free and sprinted for a 93-yard TD. I like his game from the preseason. He’s much more exciting than Russell Gage (2-17-0/4) or any of the other not-Julio/not-Ridley WRs on this team. If Ridley is out…Zaccheaus may get a look ahead. More on that in the upcoming game recaps.
-- Derrius Guice (5-42-0) started to turn the offense, again, as the RB working after Adrian Peterson (20-76-1)…and then, after a brilliant run, Guice got his knee hit and was out for the rest of the game. The good news is…it looks like it’s not an ACL situation. Either a sprain/twist or a bruise. He may miss next week or the rest of the season (or play this week), but it does not look like a major surgery issue.
-- Allen Lazard (2-19-0/3) was so good last week. What was his reward this week? 3 targets.
This offense is discombobulated, and Green Bay is so overrated. Fortunately, the recent schedule is masking their issues. They scuffled some with the Giants last week and then couldn’t keep Washington down this week.
-- Steven Sims (4-40-0/7) is progressing a little more in this offense each week…a season-high 7 targets and was the main guy in the first half or so for Dwyane Haskins, but therein lies the issue with getting excited about Sims for FF 2019 right now…’Dwayne Haskins’.
But things are looking up for 2020+ with a new coaching staff coming and a new QB sooner rather than later.
-- We’ve reached the point in Courtland Sutton’s (5-34-0/7) NFL journey where he is now known as a star within the league, and teams are doubling him…making it hard for a guy like Drew Lock to get him the ball. It’s going to be erratic FF numbers every week for the rest of the season. Decent matchup ahead with @KC, DET, OAK to finish the season.
-- Drew Lock (22-27 for 309 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) played a helluva game, and credit to him he only forced it to Sutton 1-2 times this game, and not in a terrible way. Otherwise, Lock was making the proper reads and throws…just to other receivers. Good game for Lock, and that @KC, DET, OAK finish is going to make him look even better.
-- It was buried a bit in the upset by Denver, but this was another sign that Houston is wanting to use Duke Johnson (6-40-0/8) more as a real pass game weapon. 14 targets in the last two games. @TEN, @TB, TEN to finish out should be a need for more RB passing game.
-- There was a fear that Mike Zimmer would manage Dalvin Cook’s (18-62-1, 2-13-0/2) touches if the game got a bit out of hand. It looked more like there was an effort to work Alexander Mattison (14-46-0, 2-18-0/2) regardless/early on…to spare Cook more. At the Chargers next week, we could see the same kinda workload split in a game to preserve Cook some for the big Week 16 game with Green Bay.
-- David Blough (24-40 for 205 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) did not look great here…he’s overmatched as a UDFA rookie + he has a weak O-Line. Tampa Bay-DST is a sleeper Week 15 against them and then Week 16 could be pretty nice for the Denver-DST at Denver (unless Kyle Sloter plays at QB that game).
-- Bo Scarbrough (19-65-0) is averaging 19.3 carries per game the past 3 weeks – the clear main carry guy for the Lions. 82.0 yards rushing per game…but no TDs and just 1 catch since joining the Lions. He’s a non-PPR worker at best…and faces top 3 run defense TB next week.
-- Well, it looks like Raheem Mostert (10-69-1) is the one to own in the SF backfield…for now. It’s ever-changing with Kyle Shanahan, to his credit, but Mostert looks best of the group today.
-- It’s now 8 games in a row with no TDs for Alvin Kamara (13-25-0, 4-18-0/6). AK only has a TD in a game back in Week 3 (2 of them) for the season. Nothing seems wrong or off, but he is not getting into the end zone this year.
-- Jimmy Garoppolo (26-35 for 349 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT) averaged 1.2 TD passes per game the first 6 games of the season. And 2.6 passing TDs per game his last 7 games…including three games with 4 TDs in that span vs. ARI, ARI, and here v. NO. Garoppolo is showing he can go if they need him to go/throw. He faces ATL and LAR at home the next two weeks.
-- This was about the game I expected from Patrick Laird (15-48-0, 4-38-0/5)…good touches but not much fantasy action. He was plausible. He’s obviously their preferred lead. Miles Gaskin (4-5-0, 1-6-0/2) was nowhere to be found and Zach Zenner saw no touches. Laird gets NYG and CIN the next two weeks…that’s about as good as it gets for matchups. Whether Laird can do anything with them with this dying offense is the problem.
-- It’s possible DeVante Parker and Albert Wilson will miss next week’s game with injury…depleting Miami WR group even more. Allen Hurns (5-68-0/8) might be the #1 WR for Fitzpatrick next week. Isaiah Ford (6-92-0/9) would be a #2 position, but Ford would have little time working with Fitz this year…however, @NYG, CIN the next two weeks might help get them together.
-- The Jets easy schedule stretch has finally come to an end. It turns quite nasty now…@BAL, PIT, @BUF the final three games of the season. I would have no interest in Darnold-Bell-Robby-Crowder, Griffin, etc., the rest of the way. Not that I had much interest before this…
-- Mike Evans (1-61-1/2) hurt his leg on his 61-yard TD jaunt. It looks like an injury that may keep him out the rest of the season. Breshad Perriman (3-70-1/5) might have a shot to produce with Evans out. Perriman has had his two best games of the season the past two weeks…4.0 rec., 78.5 yards, 0.5 TDs per game in that span.
-- Zach Pascal (5-74-1/9) disappeared for several weeks but has reemerged the past two weeks…6.0 rec. (9.5 targets), 91.5 yards, 0.5 TDs per game the past two weeks. Likely, this keeps up as I don’t believe T.Y. Hilton will be back for a few weeks.
-- O.J. Howard (4-73-0/5) might also benefit from a missing Mike Evans. After a disastrous season, OJH has been heating up the past two games…4.5 rec. (5.5 targets), 67.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game the past two games after dying most all season prior.
-- Late in this dreadful game, D.J. Chark (9-75-0/10) hurt his ankle…and we don’t know how long he’ll be out. If he’s down, Keelan Cole (1-12-0/3) might move into a sleeper role at Oakland Week 15.
-- Jacksonville is playing the worst ball in all of the NFL…I’m not sure at Oakland next week means anything favorable for any player. Everything is falling apart for the Jags. Oakland’s DST is a possible sleeper against them but they had their soul ripped out last week as well.
-- Jags LB Donald Payne (16 tackles) is being given a shot with Myles Jack down. In two games as a new starter…13 and 16 tackles in a game. He’s a good player, finally getting a shot, and he’s making the IDP-best of it. Arguably a top 10 LB for Week 15 facing Oakland.
-- Patrick Mahomes (26-40 for 283 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) TD passes in a game his last five games: 1-3-1-1-1. Under 300 yards passing in five of his last 6 games. 2.3 TD passes per game before his injury and 1.5 TD passes per game since he returned from his kneecap injury.
He’s not been the same guy since the injury…and it may be no more obvious than the injury is some kind of issue (planting, mechanically, etc.). Plus, he got hurt in several areas in this game. He’s just a little off…and that’s hurting his numbers and the numbers of those around him.
-- As goes Mahomes, so goes Tyreek Hill (6-62-0/8)…no TDs in his past 2 games since returning from his second injury absence.
Either the league has caught up to them or something went wrong with Mahomes-Hill off their respective injuries.
-- Mohammed Sanu (1-13-0/1) had that 10-catch game a few weeks ago, his 2nd game with the team. Since then, Sanu’s catches in a game: 2-3-1 for 4-14-14 yards. He wasn’t the answer.
-- Typical Arizona game…failed red zone efforts and penalties. Kyler Murray (20-30 for 194 yards, 2 TDs/3 INTs, 6-2-0) looked better he did vs. the Rams but this offense is constantly shooting itself in the foot. I’m not sure if Kyler is a QB1 vs. Cleveland next week with as bad as this offense looks right now. Everything is such a chore to move the ball the further they get into the opponent’s territory.
-- I thought one of Diontae Johnson (6-60-1/8, 1-16-0, 1 PR TD) or James Washington (4-33-0) would have a game here…it was Diontae. I was more with James Washington, riding the recent trends but Diontae’s talent took over.
-- Arizona has a terrible pass defense, and all Devlin Hodges (16-19 for 152 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) could muster was 152 yards passing. You cannot trust anything related to this passing game against any plausible defense. At Buffalo next week is lethal for the QB and WRs of the Steelers for fantasy.
-- This was why we had Ryan Tannehill (21-27 for 391 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) in the top 5 QBs this week…he’s white hot and the Raiders are embarrassing on pass defense. Not a bad matchup Week 15 hosting Houston.
-- I assume Josh Jacobs will now be shutdown for the season…there is no reason to push him now that the Raiders are essentially done for the playoffs. DeAndre Washington (14-53-1, 6-43-0/7) will be the lead RB the rest of the season…and faces the dead run defense of Jacksonville Week 15.
-- I was one week too early on pushing A.J. Brown (5-153-2/7) and then one week too early giving up on him, per se. I chased James Washington for A.J. Brown this week in too many spots trying to ride a wave and get against Arizona. Brown is in a good spot vs. HOU next week, but he hurt his leg 2nd-half and unsure how bad off he is.
-- I told you the knee and the flu were not excuses for Tyler Lockett (4-43-0/5)…this is who he is in this offense now. Why? I have no idea. It is what it is. With better matchups we might see the old ‘good’ Lockett…like Week 15 at CAR and Week 16 v. ARI.
-- If Rashaad Penny (1-16-0/1) is out for the ROS, C.J. Prosise (1-2-0) becomes the ‘handcuff’ for Chris Carson…and, maybe, the guy who gets some in-game work enough to matter a little in PPR.
-- We lost Tyler Lockett, but Robert Woods (7-98-0, 2-29-0) has been found. Back to his great WR1.5 production over the last few weeks. I think you can trust it going forward…the Rams have re-done or refreshed their offense, in a sense, the last few weeks and it’s back to looking like 2018 to some degree.
------ TOP FIVES ------
*BUY LOW and SELL HIGH will return in 2020, we’re past 95%+ of everyone’s trade deadlines. Dynasty league traders – we have the dynasty stash reports, the offseason we’ll be getting into all of it like last year, and we’ll be addressing players all week in the game recaps.
Top 5 ‘Waivers to Trust’ (looking at players less than 50-60% owned on average)
1) DeAndre Washington, OAK – If you need a guy who is now his team’s starting RB for the ROS…here you go. I’m sure OAK will shutdown Josh Jacobs and give Washington this extended audition. Washington running with passion/desperation to make a name for himself…you can use that…especially against awful Jacksonville Week 15.
2) Ryan Tannehill, TEN – He’s been owned too low a percentage for too long. Most FFM’ers grabbed him as their #2 QB the past few weeks, and for some he saved their Week 14.
3) Tyler Higbee, LAR – I was wrong. I didn’t believe the Rams would start using Higbee like a real TE just because they used him to punch Arizona Week 13, but man did he look great against Seattle. I missed it but be careful that this is more of a Jack Doyle type of hot blip and then die-off.
4) Adrian Peterson, WAS – Derrius Guice will be out for next week, probably, and the ROS potentially. AP will get 20+ touches a game in Bill Callahan’s offense with no Guice in sight. Chris Thompson gets the PPR stuff, though.
5) A.J. Brown, TEN – We pushed this a couple weeks ago, then gave up in some spots because of the low volume…then ‘boom’ – he crushes it Week 14. That’s the guy I was chasing but cooled on at the wrong time in some cases. He’d be up higher on the list again, except he got hurt late in this game and not sure if he carries a questionable label or not to start this week.
6) Raheem Mostert, SF – I guess he’s the starting RB for SF? Or, at least, the preferred? The main guy in the SF backfield tends to get 10-13 touches in games, and then the second one looks hot one of the other ones pop and becomes the ‘it’ RB. The RB du jour is now Mostert.
7) Zach Pascal, IND – I guess we’re doing this again. I was in early on Pascal and A.J. Brown a few weeks ago, and then they flopped, then I started cooling on them, and then they exploded on my bench or off my team Week 14. With T.Y. Hilton not likely to return, someone has to be the #1 WR on a weak passing game…I guess it’s Pascal. Parris Campbell is just bubble screening.
Top 5 ‘Waivers to Distrust’
1) Ian Thomas, CAR – Love the player, and thought he looked nice this week in his spot start for injured-Olsen…but that’s the issue. Once Olsen returns, likely next week, he’ll be right back in as a starter for his possible career-end tour of playing time. It’s not right, but it is what it is and makes Thomas go from hero to zero for FF. If Olsen is out again, then we can love Ian.
2) Drew Lock, DEN – Really has played nicely the first two weeks, to my shock…but I see the flaws. I see the issues. Eventually, they will get front and center and people will cool fast on him. Remember, how great Daniel Jones was after his first two starts? Lock looks better than Dan Dime did but his scouting issues are there they just haven’t cost him yet. I’m thinking they will eventually, possibly next week.
3) Isaiah Ford, MIA – Mediocre WR who might get elevated to starter Week 15 v. NYG because of injuries. An emerging star is not here.
4) Diontae Johnson, PIT – LOVE-LOVE-LOVE the player, but hate-hate-hate the situation for FF. Devlin Hodges is a nightmare, and this week against Buffalo…no way.
5) Marcus Johnson, IND – Scored a TD Week 14 and is a nice little #4-5 WR for an NFL team. He’s a random event in Indy right now, and Pascal-Doyle-Campbell have more purpose in this weak passing game.
Top 5 ‘Deep Sleeper Plays on the Radar Screen’
*Not going to put handcuffs on here anymore…if you haven’t done this already, then so be it.
1) Breshad Perriman, TB – If Mike Evans is out…Perriman is the next in-line to get more work, and for the last two weeks he’s been working with more targets/activity than he has his whole career. He’s a former 1st-round draft pick that had star potential but never clicked in Baltimore. Cleveland liked him last season, but then they acquired OBJ and let him go to TB where he’s been ignored until the last few weeks. TB is always throwing and making numbers, so maybe Perriman is the Week 15 shock ‘pop’ performer of the week.
2) TreQuan Smith, NO – A lot of talk about how Smith is getting back into the offense with the Saints, and how they want to use him more ahead. He missed time this season and there isn’t much for non-Mike Thomas WRs, but sometimes the #2 Saints WR pops…could be Smith the next week or two?
3) Hayden Hurst, BAL – Really talented TE who may be in-line for more work if Mark Andrews is out. Capable of being a shock TE1 in a given week…and this week vs. the Jets isn’t a bad game to work him a little more to being him up to speed with LJax more.
4) Will Grier, CAR – Two QB leagues…we might see Grier this week or next. If I were the Panthers’ owner, I would demand it. I could not take another Kyle Allen event. We’ve seen it, we know it’s not legit starter material so let’s see what Grier has. The Turner’s are vested in Kyle, so they won’t make a change on their own.
5) Keelan Cole, JAX – If D.J. Chark is down, Cole could start next week for the depressing Jaguars.
6) C.J. Prosise, SEA – If Rashaad Penny is out, here’s your new Carson-handcuff.
7) Olamide Zacchaeus, ATL – 93-yard TD Week 14. If Calvin Ridley is out, and Zaccheaus starts…he might be a shock again in Week 15. Loved his preseason work as a thicker, tougher, less experienced Ridley-like WR. A better Russell Gage.
8) Antonio Brown, FA – What? You think he’s coming back for Week 15 to the Patriots? He’s 98%+ likely NOT returning this regular season, and if he tries…he’ll probably get suspended anyway. BUT…for your last roster spot, what if you just parked him there in case a miracle return happened? Imagine he returns to NE this week…you’d start him, wouldn’t you? That’s the value…could go from dead to WR1 in a blink. How many other waiver WRs can you say that about?
Top 5 ‘Just Quit On Them’ Players: (listing better names here this week…not always that you MUST quit, but in 10-12 team leagues, ‘names’ we’re holding onto out of habit that we might need to leave)
1) Tevin Coleman, SF – We’re now at Mostert-Breida as the leads and Tevin barely exists but is paid 10x more than the other two combined. It’s over.
2) Odell Beckham, CLE – What? You’re going to start him on your FF team this week? Let’s just move on…OBJ and David Johnson on fantasy waiver wires…who could’ve imagined??!! Two first round guys in redrafts…how great is this game of fantasy? OBJ has done NOTHING for FF this season, and he obviously hasn’t wanted to be there…so, move on.
3) Brandin Cooks, LAR– The Rams have resurged in recent weeks and Cooks is barely seeing a target. His career is ending fast.
4) Josh Gordon, SEA – He’s been awful all season…there’s a reason why the Patriots just cut him, despite needing WRs. Done little with Seattle so far.
5) Jonathan Williams, IND – Remember way-way-way back like two weeks ago, when JW ran for 100+ yards and looked like the best RB the Colts had, including better than Mack? You do? Well, that guy isn’t even getting a few courtesy touches now. He’s not the handcuff, Indy doesn’t care…thanks for your wonderful 100+ yard game, buh-bye.
Top 5 DSTs Off Waivers (maybe on waivers) to Consider:
*All these options, just putting the list together and seeing the details – it sucks. Really not excited about any one thing here now…
1) Chiefs-DST – As soon as you start to like the KC-DST, they burn you. You ignore them, and suddenly they are great. There are a lot of good pieces on this defense, for FF. They just had a terrific game at NE. Weeks 15-16 is the ticket, though…DEN and @CHI…and LAC Week 17, if needed.
2) Seahawks-DST – Weeks 14-15…@CAR and then hosting ARI – two plausible starts. Seattle doesn’t have a killer defense anymore, not like they did 3-5 years ago, but it’s solid and getting a bit better as we go.
3) Broncos-DST – Week 16 hosting Detroit is their only value, looking ahead. It’s a solid defense with a great defensive head coach and they still seem to be playing hard.
4) Texans-DST – Not a very good defense, but Week 16 with Tampa Bay could be some turnovers, per Jameis usual.