2019 Week 15: Three Things from all Sunday Games + Top 5’s of the Week (Waivers, Buy Low/Sell High, etc.)
Welp, you’re either ecstatic reading this week’s installment, because you’re moving on to the Week 16 title game…or your half-paying attention because your season ended yesterday, or the prior week; reading with some aggravation. I get it.
For those who’ve been bounced from all their title game hopes – before you check out of 2019, I am writing a piece this week for you/everyone about Fantasy Football mindsets, in general, that I hope many will very much appreciate for the moment and for the future. It will be out this week ASAP before we get to the holidays. It’s an important read, I think/hope.
This week, in FFM tracking, it looks like an over .500 week but not by much. Still some NO-IND action to sift through but it looks like more quarterfinals wins than losses, but not a huge run.
The week kinda came down to – did you face Lamar Jackson or not? For FFM’ers, it was counteracted with – did you have the Mahomes/Tyreek combo pack? I was able to take down Lamar or McCaffrey with a Mahomes/Tyreek base and solid performances around it better than the opponents. Where I didn’t have Mahomes and tried to Baker-Kyler for scramble points to beat Lamar…didn’t happen in almost every case.
Week 16 will be a normal week for FFM with a focus on winning the titles you’re in.
Video shows Tuesday and Sunday, as usual. Might have a special Saturday pregame show since we have THREE Saturday games. More on that as the week progresses.
Game recaps of all the Week 15 games before that Saturday kickoff, so I’m as studied as I can be going into it. Mostly, we’re all facing Lamar Jackson-based teams in the finals, unless we’re the possessor. Our typical KC guys are going Sunday night in Chicago (good news, the weather forecast is mild for December).
It’s going to be another stressful FF weekend, which is great. Here we go!!
-- Joe Mixon (25-136-0, 3-20-0/3) ran through the Patriots defense like they weren’t there in the 1st-half. A good sign for Devin Singletary next week. Mixon looks so good the 2nd-half of this season.
-- The Patriots passing game looks worse than ever. It seemed like they’ve given up on Sanu-Dorsett and trying to mini-push N’Keal Harry (2-22-0, 2-15-1/4). You can’t play any of these WRs with confidence against the Bills next week. The Bills defense will smack the Pats offense.
-- Tom Brady (15-29 for 128 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is really slipping from what I see. It’s not ALL the WRs fault. Four of Brady’s last 5 games he’s been under 220 yards passing.
-- You knew this Tyler Lockett (8-120-1/9) bounce back event coming after his cold streak…you just never knew when. I benched him more than not. I won’t bench him against Arizona Week 16.
-- Curtis Samuel (4-23-0, 5-31-1/8) had a nice week, as we suspected he was also due for. Also, note – he had a goal line rush attempt stopped six inches short of a TD, and had another TD pass where he was open, but Allen overthrew him in the end zone. That’s the Samuel upside and curse…he’s getting great opportunity, but he’s always ‘just missed’ it seems. Not bad here, but coulda been awesome.
-- Ian Thomas (2-23-0/4) didn’t have a follow through game this week. Nothing off I detected, just not targeted much by Kyle Allen…who was a mess until the final 10 minutes of the game.
-- I guess Jameis Winston’s (28-42 for 458 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT) hand is OK? How bad is the Lions pass defense? How good has Jameis been? He’s finishing like a top 3 fantasy with another good game Week 16. He’s gone from outside the top 12 fantasy QBs to rushing into the top 5 for the season over the past few weeks. God Bless him…he’s going to get a monster contract for beating up on JAX-IND-DET the last three weeks. A sucker’s bet.
-- Breshad Perriman (5-113-3/6) was the non-Mike Evans winner. It wasn’t anything special, he was just the guy against a nonexistent pass defense. Justin Watson (2-17-0/2) was so good last week…and that got him barely targeted this week, but that’s why we backed off him the few days and on the Sunday morning show…once Scotty Miller (3-49-1/3) returned out of nowhere, then we didn’t know if Watson was even going to start (and he didn’t).
-- Rookie UDFA/off the street pickup RB Wes Hills (10-21-2, 2-1-0/2) is a ‘load’ but he is also slow and inexperienced. He’ll disappear from here. This will be Kerryon Johnson’s backfield next week.
-- I thought Allen Robinson (7-125-0/14) would have numbers suppressed in the cold, and this did end up the 3rd-lowest scoring game of Sunday, but the Bears got down and passed the entire 4th-quarter and thank goodness ARob got his numbers pumped up.
-- I also thought Anthony Miller (9-118-1/15) would really suffer, but he put up his 3rd-straight nice FF-effort. Didn’t look like anything special watching it…but he was available and made catches. I have to start beefing up Miller projections now. I’ve been a nonbeliever…still am, but it’s working as of late.
-- Another Aaron Rodgers (16-33 for 203 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) dud for fantasy. He’ll fall out of the top 12 for fantasy (among QBs) scoring PPG YTD after this week. Next week at Minnesota will not be favorable either…tough stadium to go to in a Super Bowl atmosphere game.
-- How Patrick Mahomes (27-34 for 340 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) and Travis Kelce (11-142-0/13) were so in-sync in that snow…surreal. As long as the weather is plausible…Mahomes is a ‘can’t sit’ unless Lamar Jackson is your other option.
-- Positive sign for the Courtland Sutton (4-79-0/10) and Drew Lock (18-40 for 208 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) relationship…we want Lock looking for Sutton in most every circumstance. When things were falling apart here, Lock started forcing it to Sutton. Hosting DET in Week 16 should be a favorable situation for them.
-- Three games in a row for the KC-DST to hold opposing offenses to 17 or fewer points. Eight turnovers the past three games. Facing @CHI Week 16…another promising DST1 start.
-- Sterling Shepard (9-111-0/11) was a hot debate point on Sunday morning…Jason and I were pushing him over Allen Robinson. In the end, it was close enough (almost even)…but Sterling was so close to adding and other 50+ yards and a TD here…penalty killed one big play of his. Shepard’s was Eli’s guy, on this current roster – but he works well with Daniel Jones too. A nice final moment for Eli’s career.
-- DeVante Parker (4-72-2/7) is like a new WR lease on life. Good for him turning his career around. I think it’s a mindset thing and I worry that when it matters, and now well-paid…he falls right back into his old ways in 2020. It’s easier to shine when your team is always losing/down and bombing against prevent-ish defenses.
This helps Preston Williams 2020…the Dolphins will go into the season with a 1-2 punch of Parker-Preston, and Preston will be the real talent If he’s healthy enough).
-- Ryan Fitzpatrick (23-41 for 279 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) has had two or more passing TDs in a game in five of his last 8 games. He’s working the junk time. He never stops gunning. Week 16 hosting Cincy…he’s a QB1.
-- A.J. Brown (8-114-1/13), to me, had his first ‘real’ high-end WR performance. Not just making one big play for a great fantasy week…this was several physical presence moments – he’s a power RB playing WR. He’s like less athletic, but athletic, Quincy Enunwa.
-- Finally, Carlos Hyde (26-104-1) got back to a heavy run week…when Houston gets ahead and tries to sit on the opponent, they run heavy with Hyde. Tough week vs. TB Week 16…a top NFL run defense.
-- Ryan Tannehill (22-36 for 279 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 3-10-1) did it again…3 more TDs. Might well assume 3 more TDs Week 16. He finds a way every week. It looked like, most of the 1st-half, Tannehill might get shutout of scoring…but he always finds a way. Stunning.
-- Dwayne Haskins (19-28 for 261 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is not very good, but he is getting better. He’s gone from a total ‘F’ to a more comfortable/reading the defenses ‘D+’ the last two games. It’s making Terry McLaurin (5-130-1/5) viable again.
-- Haskins’ improvement also helps Mr. 11 targets in this game Steven Sims (5-45-1/11). I never dreamed there would be a 2019 game where Sims would lead the team in targets. I knew he was good, but guys like this usually get looked past. Sims has scrapped his way to not only a starting role, but a desired alternative target with McLaurin extra-covered.
-- Greg Ward (7-61-1/9) caught the game winning TD. In the seas of injured WRs in Philly, they are down to Ward as their leader…he’s not great but he’s OK. Needing WRs to step up…J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (0-0-0/2) played an entire game and caught no passes with Washington’s top cover CB out. Sad.
-- OK, finally Arizona breaks out and scores 38 points in an efficient offensive event…and it results in four Kenyan Drake (22-137-4, 1-9-0/1). I would have expected three TDs from Kyler Murray (19-25 for 219, 1 TD/1 INT, 8-56-0) with that type of team scoring, but so many plays to near-the-goal line led to short Drake scores it stole points from Kyler. Story of my 2019…
-- I was hoping Baker Mayfield (30-43 for 247 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) might get into a shootout with Kyler and put up fantasy points…he did not take advantage of the weak Arizona pass defense. He was OK, but not great…not helping was several drops, once again, by his receivers.
-- I thought David Johnson (3-6-0) might have worked his way back into more playing time, but Drake got hot and then all of a sudden, I see David Johnson returning kicks. DJ will not be back in Arizona next season. Early favorites for him in 2020: Tampa Bay, the NY Jets, and Kansas City. No more DJ talk for FF 2019, however. I’m done even looking/hoping.
-- Why Josh Jacobs (24-89-0, 2-20-0/3) was pushed back to play this game, I have no idea. It really rallied the troops…against the worst run defense in the NFL the last half of the season, JJ averaged 3.7 yards per carry and with the emotion of the last home game in Oakland…the Raiders lost to the current worst team in football. Really great stuff.
-- Leonard Fournette (15-42-0, 5-31-0/7) had another fantasy dud. He’s scored solidly in PPR all season but lacked for TDs all year…3 total TDs this entire season.
-- Donald Payne (13 tackles) keeps rolling…three starts and 13-16-13 for tackles in those three games. No reason to believe he won’t hit double digit tackles again next week Atlanta.
-- I’m such a Mike Boone (13-56-2) fan. Good for him! It took several injuries above him, but he finally got into meaningful playing time and delivered. If Cook and Mattison are out this week, I will lose my Mike Boone mind.
-- This game was over before it started, so hard to judge Cousins-Diggs-Thielen-Rudolph…because once Zimmer gets that big early lead, he goes into hiding with the run game. Thielen looked fine, just everything got reeled in.
-- Melvin Gordon (7-28-0, 5-36-0/7) fumbled early and he was pulled for a bit, and then things got out of hand and thus he didn’t do a whole lot. I don’t expect Gordon to get benched or Justin Jackson (5-15-0, 2-2-0/2) to get extra work Week 16. There’s no reason for Anthony Lynn to do anything radical because he doesn’t know if he’ll be back in 2020. Same thing for Lynn and Philip Rivers (28-39 for 307 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs)…no sense in rocking the boat because Lynn doesn’t know where he will be coaching this time next year and with which ones of these players.
-- Tyler Higbee (12-111-0/14) is now the breakout star of the Rams’ offense. My question is…why did it take three years for this to happen? He’s been sitting there the whole time. 2019 is the season Sean McVay has totally lost me as a starry-eyed fan of his. He’s human not a God/Belichick. Better than most, but I’ve seen a lot of befuddling things from him this season…from my viewpoint.
-- Cooper Kupp (6-41-1/6) ended up with a decent fantasy game, but for a long time into this game Kupp hadn’t had a target or done much of anything. Second game in a row that he’s rattled confidence’s with his usage/targets. Not sure what to make of this sudden change in activity.
-- The Cowboys beat the Rams by the run…Elliott-Pollard both over 100+ rushing. That Rams defense did hold down Amari Cooper (1-19-0/2) and Michael Gallup (1-6-0/3), but in fairness…this game was over quickly, and Dallas just ran it out, not a lot of passing late needed. Not sure that Amari-Gallup wouldn’t have been OK in a different game flow.
-- I was expecting a big game from Deebo Samuel (1-29-0/3) and the entire passing game, and they laid an egg against Atlanta. How fickle the NFL is? The 49ers have been 2nd only to Baltimore in scoring the last 7-8 games of the season and just bombed the Saints with scoring last week…then they face Atlanta, who was down their top corner and had another one injured…and they couldn’t do a thing this week. Next week, we’ll fade the 49ers and they will score a thousand points while the Falcons won’t be able to stop Gardner Minshew Week 16.
-- Austin Hooper (3-20-0/6) in his two games back from injury: 2.5 rec. (6.0 targets), 26.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game. He will fall from #1 in PPR PPG among TEs this season to #2-3-4 after this week and falling.
-- The vaunted 49ers defense has now allowed 20+ points in a game in six of their last 7 games…they held all of their first 7 opponents to 20 or fewer to start the season.
-- This was supposed to be the Cole Beasley (1-6-0/6) night, instead he dropped multiple passes and put up a total disaster for FF. I’m not sure I’ve ever been on the right side of Cole Beasley in a game in my life. The moment he seems too hot to ignore…dud game. The moment you scoff at his stupid 4-40-0 ways, he has a 7-catch and a TD event. Six TDs in 8 games prior…couldn’t catch anything here.
-- Wow, very subtly within this game you could see the absolute brilliance of Diontae Johnson (5-62-0/7). He was burning Tre’Davious White on routes, and that’s incredibly difficult to do. That’s DJ’s future…’the next A.B.’. We just don’t know if Big Ben will ever be right, or even play again with his age/elbow. It ain’t gonna happen with Ducky McGee at QB.
-- The other ‘next greatest’ among the rookie is Devin Singletary (21-87-0, 2-2-0/3). If you had a chance to really watch him again on a solo TV game…he is so quick/elusive. He is the closest thing to Barry Sanders the NFL has had in awhile…he just disappears from the space he was in like he’s an apparition. He’s not near Sanders, no one is/has been…Barry was maybe the most unique thing there ever was in the NFL the past 25 years, but Singletary has serious movement skills.
That PFF grade for David Montgomery’s supposed ‘forced missed tackles’ in college…didn’t even have Singletary on the list. How is this possible? That’s why I question their data collection methods…too much art, not enough science (because it’s almost impossible to judge without personal bias/the eye of the beholder).
------ TOP FIVES ------
*BUY LOW and SELL HIGH will return in 2020, we’re past 95%+ of everyone’s trade deadlines. Dynasty league traders – we have the dynasty stash reports, the offseason we’ll be getting into all of it like last year, and we’ll be addressing players all week in the game recaps.
Top 5 ‘Waivers to Trust’ (looking at players less than 50-60% owned on average)
1) Kerryon Johnson, DET – He’s healthy. He’ll be activated Week 16. He’ll go right in as starter and be used like the lead back as Matt Patricia tries to show what could’ve been if his starters stayed healthy…it’s all Patricia has to save his job. Expect a big Kerryon week unless they say otherwise (on his workload) for some reason.
2) Mike Boone/Alexander Mattison, MIN – Only IF Dalvin Cook is ruled out. But, which one to go with? If Mattison is healthy, he will be the heavy touch lead…he’s Zimmer’s guy. If Cook/Mattison are both out…Mike Boone is a star waiting to be born. Read my ‘Very Deep Sleeper’ report on him from 2019, and I’m going re-re-post that on the FFM site as well, but a Google search of Very Deep Sleepers/Mike Boone will get you to it.
3) Boston Scott, PHI – Need a PPR RB name getting 30-40% of the touches in games? One that is more explosive than the starter so he’s a threat to house a touch at any time? The last two weeks: 6 and 7 catches in each game. 16 and 13 touches (carries + catches) in those two games. If Jordan Howard is out and you’re running thin on options…Scott offers hope/upside.
4) Sterling Shepard, NYG – Was Eli’s #1, but was really working like a #1 for Daniel Jones when they two of them could be healthy at the same time. Better for PPR. Facing WSH Week 16…Greg Ward just had a nice game on WSH.
5) Breshad Perriman, TB – I thought Perriman would be a mediocre 2nd-3rd option behind Chris Godwin and possibly Justin Watson. When Scotty Miller got healthy/active, it made it more confusing. Then Perriman scored a quick TD…then Godwin and Miller got hurt and Perriman scored some more TDs. I guess he's the guy…last week it was Watson looking like the ace.
Week 16 facing HOU is favorable, BUT Perriman could be in the unfamiliar position of #1 WR, getting #1 WR coverage.
6) Anthony Miller, CHI – This is working for like 3-4 weeks in a row. I’m not going to fight it. I would be a touch nervous if Taylor Gabriel got active Week 16.
Top 5 ‘Waivers to Distrust’
1) Wes Hills, DET – He’s not very good. He was just elevated off the streets due to an emergency. Kerryon Johnson returns and that’s the end of this story for 2019. Two TDs…nice, but nothing here.
2) Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI – Two TDs…David Njoku inactive by coach’s choice…is there something here? No, I think this was just him burning his old team, because that’s the classy stuff these Browns are all about.
3) Greg Ward, PHI – Nice game, but he’s limited as a talent and Dallas is better in coverage than Washington was.
4) Chris Conley, JAX – Another two TD guy from Week 15. I just don’t see Minshew pushing towards Conley. More he was just ‘there’ and had a couple scores. I don’t know what you can trust from the JAX pass game.
5) Danny Amendola, DET – Good play. Been hot in output. Two issues: (1) Kerryon returns and then there is more run game focus. (2) Denver has a really nice pass defense, and that will be tough on David Blough….and Golladay…and Amendola.
Top 5 ‘Deep Sleeper Plays on the Radar Screen’
1) Justin Watson, TB – If Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller are going to miss Week 15…it will be Perriman and Watson starting against Houston Week 16. I swear, Watson looked like a star in Week 14 (9 targets)…thought he’d pop some in Week 15, but he wasn’t targeted much. He could pick back up off that Week 14 vibe in Week 16 as defenses focus on Perriman.
2) DeAndre Washington, OAK – If you don’t already possess him…just a gamble that Josh Jacobs is shut down for the season now.
3) Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA – Hosting the Bengals, and Fitz is the type of QB who can post 2-3 TDs in a game and has about every other game for weeks. Boom-or-bust title game QB play facing Cincy.
4) Jonnu Smith, TEN – He looks so unbelievably good every week, I’m always walking away wondering why they don’t work him more. Well, he was SO good Week 15…they might really game plan with him Week 16. A boom-or-bust TE play for the title game.
5) Cole Beasley, BUF – Been hot lately, but a stinker Week 15. Six TDs last 9 games.
6) Keelan Cole, JAX – Was showing some spark with Minshew Week 15. JAX at ATL could yield some passing numbers and a Cole TD.
7) N’Keal Harry, NE – There were signs the Patriots are trying to push N’Keal Harry to step up as a WR threat for the stretch run Week 15…he got two carries, he caught a TD pass. He’s showing small signs of something.
8) Ian Thomas, CAR – If Greg Olsen is out again, Thomas is a talent…just not sure Kyle Allen can make it happen.
Top 5 ‘Just Quit On Them’ Players: (listing better names here this week…not always that you MUST quit, but in 10-12 team leagues, ‘names’ we’re holding onto out of habit that we might need to leave)
1) Baker Mayfield, CLE – You’re not using him against Baltimore, so if you made it to the finals and somehow have Baker in doing so, you can cut his ass if you have any viable QB in the entire league to pick from.
2) David Johnson, ARI – Yes, DJ was used as a kick returner Week 15. He’ll be playing his last game as a Cardinal soon.
3) Tyrell Williams, OAK– Scored a TD Week 15, finally…breaking his scoreless streak…but just 3 targets and the Raiders are terrible. You’re not using him Week 16, so move on.
4) Jamaal Williams, GB – Unless you own Aaron Jones, you have no need here. There has to be better flex-type RB options, I hope.
5) Bo Scarbrough, DET – Kerryon is back, so Bo is done.
Top 5 DSTs Off Waivers (maybe on waivers) to Consider:
*All these options, just putting the list together and seeing the details – it sucks. Really not excited about any one thing here now…
1) Broncos-DST – A really solid NFL defense takes on David Blough in Denver. That’s should be $$$.
2) Cowboys-DST – A Dallas team that got its groove back takes on a depleted Eagles offense that is struggling to get by the likes of Miami-NYG-Washington
3) Colts-DST – Down lower on the list of waiver options…facing Kyle Allen is something, at least. If they face Will Grier, then I would be more afraid (new QBs always fluster defenses their first time out, it seems).