2019 Week 16: Three Things from all Sunday Games + Top 5’s of the Week (Waivers, Buy Low/Sell High, etc.)
Well, another 50-50 week across FFM-land. It looks like there are three FFM camps as of Monday pre-MNF…
1) Squeaked out a win because your opponent got hit w-w-w issues -- Winston-Watson-Wilson falling flat to the finish and you got by despite your underwhelming WR results.
2) Had a chance/any chance to win died with your WR group flopping Week 16 (Tyreek, Lockett, Sutton, et. al.)
3) Through all the choppiness of the weekend you either need a plausible or pretty good or BIG night from Mike Boone on MNF (and some need Boone to fail for their opponent).
Mike Boone is going to be a hero or an eternal curse word for many of us tonight. He holds the fate of pushing towards a 50%+ win rate across the FFM-land or a potentially (with a really low score) dropping the group to below 50% in total.
Who would have thought Mike Boone and Steve Sims would be the keys to victory in Week 16. You gotta love it!!
Good Luck to everyone tonight!!
As we enter Week 17, obviously many leagues are finished with their title games, etc., but some still have Week 17 as part of or is THEE title game week. As well, we have daily leagues and season-long point accumulation leagues going, etc.
I’m going to treat Week 17 like it’s a normal week for anyone who has things still at stake. Well, mostly normal…
We have the holidays and information is going to be hard to get + it’s Week 17 with teams altering lineups, game plans, etc. My focus will be on getting info to play Week 17 as best we can. I will not be doing any game recaps this week to save some time to focus on scoring projections and chasing and reporting to you everything I am hearing/sensing about Week 17. I’ll be under a ‘reduced workload’ for Week 17 prep week but focused on getting the most helpful projections and ideas possible.
-- Some of us were beaten by Jameis Winston (25-48 for 335 yards, 1 TD/4 INTs) the prior two weeks, but on cue…I knew he couldn’t have three great (or good) games in a row. Will Jameis play in Week 17? I bet he goes for at least a half, if not finishes out – just to rack numbers because that’s important to his con on the football media/the Bucs. It will be deemed ‘want to fight to the end with my team’. Also, Arians wants an 8-8 season. All that will push Jameis to be kept by Tampa Bay, and will set them back for the future of being a true contender…not garbage time kings, or playing great with nothing at stake.
-- A lot of debate over which Bucs’ WR would matter among the odd, sudden Perriman-Watson 1-2 punch. I can say this…
Justin Watson (5-43-1/10) looked like a guy who was just ‘there’ as an option. Nothing special.
Breshad Perriman (7-102-0/12) was CLEARLY who Winston was looking for as often as he could here.
…which is a reversal of Week 14’s appearance, to me.
Perriman is the guy for Week 17, I guess…but Watson can still do work.
-- Will Fuller (2-11-0/2) had yet ANOTHER FF disappointment. That guy…you can’t count on him. He was in a good spot here but came up hurt again and missed a good chunk of the game. The story of his career…a couple hot weeks and he sucks everyone in for many more weeks after and disappoints them.
-- Josh Allen (13-26 for 208 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) completed just 50% of his passes and couldn’t finish off the final drive tie/win, but I think this was game he ‘arrived’ a bit (and it’s been building for weeks). That he solidified that he’s not a bum/bust QB. He’s not perfect, but his size-arm-feet are everything scouts wanted -- with the big knock on him…inaccuracy…and he’s improved vastly in not throwing into danger/turning the ball over so much.
You can live with his misfires and occasional turnovers because he is MAKING so many plays with his feet and strong arm…and his feet and strong arm matters in the cold/unfavorable conditions and in the era where plays with your feet are at their highest premium ever.
I thought this was a stupid draft pick a couple years ago, but I am going to be wrong. Allen had a lot of Jameis Winston in him, but Allen is improving and has way more tools, whereas Winston has all the same issues today as he did 4+ years ago. I was not wrong about Winston, but I think I’m going to be wrong on Allen. Kudos to Sean McDermott because I think he has a lot to do with Allen’s discipline and not being put in bad spots to make mistakes.
Allen will never be a 300+ yards-per-game mad bomber, but he’s not going to hurt a team any longer. He can’t carry a team to the Super Bowl, but he can be part of a great team that wins one.
For fantasy…it’s shaky. He’ll be as good as he keeps running. If he cuts back on running…you’re in some FF-trouble.
-- Rex Burkhead (5-20-1, 4-770/4) got hot and stole the usual James White (3-5-0, 4-24-0/5) work. I don’t think it’s a shift in thinking/planning…it just happened, and they went with it.
-- Cole Beasley (7-108-0/12) killed FF owners the prior week…one catch for 6 yards on six targets with several drops. Beasley looked like he'd never played football before a week ago…and then here he was terrific in spots. He’s the ultimate PPR random event WR3 you never feel great about starting at any point.
-- The Tyler Higbee (9-104-0/11) emergence continues. Again, I say…why was this guy doing nothing in the passing game for 3+ years until now? Four 100+ yard games in a row is insane…8.8 rec. (11.0 targets), 109.5 yards, and 0.25 TDs per game over the past four games.
He’s going to be a TE1 for 2020 redraft rankings, I suspect, universally. And that will disrupt the TE market with more talent flooding in – Higbee and what happens this offseason to the situations for Jarwin, Ian Thomas, Goedert, and O.J. Howard could push the TE marketplace in a totally different direction. We could see an oversaturation of talent now…and it shifting all in one season…one offseason.
-- Many have said, like me, that Deebo Samuel (3-28-1, 4-31-0/6) is like an RB playing WR. He usually gets 1-2 jet sweeps in a game to further that notion. However, an interesting twist here – Deebo started lining up in the backfield in this game…like Curtis Samuel has been recently for Carolina. He’s going to be the top PPR option for SF in 2020, and one who takes 1-2-3 carries a game as well.
-- The vaunted 49ers defense gave up 31 points here. They’ve given up 25+ in a game in five of their last 8 games. They’ve not held an opponent under 20 points since Week 8 versus Carolina. Is that 49ers defensive coordinator still a hot head coaching candidate? 5+ weeks ago he was the hot name…I wonder if the NFL will adjust or just not notice the 49ers’ defensive utter collapse?
-- D.J. Chark (2-18-0/7) didn’t look like himself coming off his ankle injury and Gardner Minshew (13-31 for 181 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) doesn’t have time to throw…that’s why I wasn’t pushing for a Chark start this week. DJC will likely be better next week and play to get his 1,000+ yard season.
-- I would assume the Falcons will play all their starters Week 17 as Dan Quinn is on the verge of saving his job, as Atlanta is now 5-2 since their BYE week and go to Tampa this week. Ryan-Devonta-Julio all should play all the way.
-- The Donald Payne (16 tackles) machine keeps rolling…the sudden starter the last four weeks has 13-15-13-16 for total tackles as the Jags man in the middle. He’ll make it five in a row with double-digit tackles in Week 17, I bet.
-- The Ravens do not need Week 17, so I wouldn’t count on any of the key players. It should be a nice opportunity for Gus Edwards (12-66-0, 1-7-0/1) as a lead back for the week…you’d think, but Justice Hill may get more of the opportunity.
-- RG3 will likely start or come in after a Lamar Jackson (20-31 for 238, 3 TDs/0 INT, 17-103-0) token start for a series. I wouldn’t touch RG3 facing a motivated Steelers defense Week 17.
-- I assume the Browns play their starters for at least a half in Week 17. It will be a ‘tell’ on Freddie Kitchens. If the Browns sit starters – then Kitchens may be secure in thinking he’s coming back and has 2020 things to worry about. If the Browns go all starters most all game, then Kitchens is likely coaching his final game in Cleveland. We will probably hear about their plan Monday-Tuesday.
-- The Saints need to keep winning for seeding, and they’ll face Will Grier/Carolina next week…all-in on the Saints-DST in that game/Week 17.
-- Jonnu Smith (3-63-1/4) might lay claim to 4-5 of the best 20 plays in the 2019 NFL season…he had another great play for a 41-yard TD early in this game and then, typical Titans, they forget he’s even on the team. No team deserves to lose more than the Titans for ignoring their best weapon all season. Next week is a must win for Tennessee, needing their best plays/playmakers -- and they’ll deal him 1-2 targets at best. It’s unconscionable.
-- I thought A.J. Brown (1-34-0/1, 1-49-1) was at-risk against Marshon Lattimore, and he didn’t have his first/only catch until later in the game. What I didn’t expect – an AJB lined up in the backfield and him running for a 49-yard TD. What I would have guessed for sure…Brown would not see another carry in the game after showing that skill, and he didn’t. Who wants more offensive success anyway?
-- I’ll have to rewatch it, but it looked like Will Grier (27-44 for 224 yards, 0 TD/3 INT) may have had the worst showing of any QB in 2019. Talk about not ready…nice job Turner’s, of getting him ready. I assume Grier starts Week 17 and then everything Carolina related is screwed except for however long CMC plays for and how good the Saints-DST will be.
-- T.Y. Hilton (3-26-0/4) just doesn’t have the juice after dealing with his leg injury. They should shut him down for the rest of the season now. He’ll be 31 years old next season. The clock is really ticking.
-- D.J. Moore (1-1-0/2) left the game early with a concussion, I’ll assume the Panthers will shut him down for the season. He got his numbers for the season. Nothing left for him to play for and no reason for Carolina to put him back out there even if he was healthy.
-- Joe Mixon (21-50-0, 2-23-0/2) was primed for a big game here, but he was visibly ‘unwell’ with a sickness. Why the Bengals kept him on the field so much, when it was so obvious…I have no idea. He’ll play some Week 17 to get his 1,000+ yard season.
-- Miles Gaskin (16-55-1, 1-3-0/3) kinda took over the backfield in this game, but then he got hurt late and it didn’t look good. Not sure he’ll be available Week 17. Doesn’t matter…the Dolphins face the Patriots in Week 17. Not good for Gaskin or Patrick Laird (8-17-0, 1-1-0/1).
-- Andy Dalton (33-56 for 396, 4 TD/0 INT) was looking for John Ross (6-84-0/13) a lot in this game. He’ll be a boom or bust option Week 17 as Cincy keeps scrapping every week. Even if it is with Ryan Finley, Ross has minor upside hope.
-- Diontae Johnson (8-81-1/9) is finally becoming a true star. He’s not fully there yet, but he’s coming on strong. In 2020, he might be that future star we’ve been promoting since August. He’d be a solid play Week 17 assuming the Ravens will mail it in.
-- If Mason Rudolph (14-20 for 129 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is healthy, he should be the Steelers starter Week 17 after Duck Hodges (11-17 for 84 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) cost the Steelers another game with his lack of skills.
-- The Jets will face Buffalo Week 17…a Bills team that don’t need to play for anything. I’m guessing the Jets will play to win/play their starters…because with a win they’d have a 6-2 second half of the season to boast/build upon.
-- Daniel Jones (28-42 for 352 yards, 5 TDs/0 INT) is going to be the ultimate head-fake QB of the 2020 offseason leading into the redrafts, etc. Jones has 13 TDs/0 INTs in three favorable games (vs. WAS with all their starting CBs hurt/out, vs. the Jets with several DBs out, and vs. the Lions with Slay out). In Jones’s other 9 games he had 5 TDs/11 INTs.
-- So happy for Steven Sims (6-64-2/10)…the fact that some of you used Sims in your title wins, I never would have imagined when I filed my very first 2019 WR NFL Draft scouting report of 2019 (on Sims) that he would be so key in 2019. Bright future in the league…a real homerun threat.
-- You want to know why Dwayne Haskins (12-15 for 133 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is ultimately not going to be a star/franchise QB in the NFL? Go watch the offense in this game with Haskins, then watch it with Case Keenum (16-22 for 158 yards, 1 TD/0 INT). I’m guessing Keenum will start Week 17, and Haskins in pen for Week 1 in 2020.
-- Drew Lock (25-33 for 192 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) played a nice game here but had some throws that got down near the goal line, which set up scores for others. Hosting Oakland next week, which might be favorable if Oakland is out of the playoffs but could be trouble if Oakland is a win away from the playoffs. The Raiders won’t know until their kickoff at 4pmET+.
-- It hasn’t been pretty but Kenny Golladay (6-66-1/12) has made FF-hay with David Blough…KG has a TD in three of his last 4 games. He leads all WRs with 11 TDs on the season.
-- Kerryon Johnson (10-42-0, 1-1-0/1) returned from I.R. and played well enough but was not pushed full throttle and the Lions cannot run block so it ended up a ‘meh’ return. I’d expect he’ll take a few touches Week 17 and that’s it, or just be inactive.
-- Like the Chargers, I’m ready to move on from any more Philip Rivers (27-39 for 279 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) in my life. In a perfect spot against a bad pass defense, possible final last home game as a Charger for Rivers, etc., he goes out like a chump. Not sure if he’s starting Week 17 or he’s done, nor does it matter much for FF.
-- DeAndre Washington (23-85-1, 2-21-0/3) continues to play like his life depends upon it. A nice game here, and he should be a top 10-15 play again for Week 17 as he gets one more shot at impressing teams for the future.
-- Hunter Renfrow (7-107-1/9) returned from injury and was impressive…a somewhat lucky, somewhat impressive 56-yard TD early and then a bunch of Cole Beasley work after that.
5.0 rec. (6.5 targets), 60.0 yards, 0.40 TDs per game in his last five games.
-- The Eagles have a ‘win and in’ Week 17 vs. NYG, so everything you’d think is a play…is a play. And it won’t be an easy win, the Giants have been showing signs of life and Philly off an emotional week.
-- Dallas has to win and hope Philly loses, so they still have a reason to play…so, everything is in play. Dak Prescott (25-44 for 265 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) looked totally fine, so all things normal for Week 17 vs. Washington.
-- Boston Scott (3-12-0, 6-7-0/6) catch totals in his three-game run as #2 RB…6-7-6. On the season, Scott has caught 20 passes on 20 targets…a 100% connection rate. Impressive…for a guy who couldn’t find a job most of the season. He’s a viable PPR play Week 17, as the lack of Philly WR options is pushing more reliable pass game option in Scott.
-- Great ending for Kyler Murray (11-18 for 118 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 6-40-0)…I mean, first they steal a TD pass from him on an awful review reversal (those guys never do anything to change calls and then with no clear evidence they reverse a TD call on the field), and then Murray tweaks his hamstring and leaves early from what was developing into a nice FF game. Murray scored OK regardless, considering how much time he missed…but it could’ve been so much more.
-- Travis Homer (5-16-0, 6-26-0/8) may be a shock starter in a massive game Week 17 vs. SF. Homer is more of a 3rd-down type RB, a slower Austin Ekeler type back…he can be OK as a fill-in option. This is a pretty big showcase and I wouldn’t have a ton of confidence in him beyond he’ll touch the ball quite a bit.
-- Week 17 matters for Seattle, and if Travis Homer is the only active/experienced RB on the roster…we could see a totally different offense from the Seahawks, a forced up-tempo game led by a bunch of Russell Wilson (16-31 for 169 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) throwing…which would be nice for FF for all involved.
-- I coulda used a typical Patrick Mahomes (23-33 for 251 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 2-14-1) high octane game, but instead I got a measured Mahomes with moderate Tyreek Hill (5-72-0/5)…and it cost me a few FF-titles. Since the kneecap it’s been more OK/good than ‘great’ from Mahomes. Onto 2020…
-- I knew the moment I stopped pooh-poohing Anthony Miller (1-2-0/1) he’d remember he’s Anthony Miller. He remembered this game.
-- I thought Mitch Trubisky (18-34 for 157 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) might get into a game of chase here and get some nice garbage time work like he did last week. Never materialized. Good start running the ball and then a slow, painful death the rest of the game. His decent FF run the last few weeks hit a brick wall here.
------ TOP FIVES ------
*BUY LOW and SELL HIGH will return in 2020, we’re past 95%+ of everyone’s trade deadlines. Dynasty league traders – we have the dynasty stash reports, the offseason we’ll be getting into all of it like last year, and we’ll be addressing players all week in the game recaps.
Top 5 ‘Waivers to Trust’ (looking at players less than 50-60% owned on average)
1) Travis Homer, SEA – If Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise are out for Week 17, then everything falls on Travis Homer to carry the backfield. Homer is a 5’10”/201 satellite RB who runs a 4.48 40-time with a 7.07 three-cone. He’s OK/not bad and he can catch out of the backfield well.
2) Diontae Johnson, PIT – DJ’s last three games…6.3 rec. (8.0 targets), 67.7 yards, 0.67 TDs per game. He’s emerged as ‘the man’ for the Steelers with JuJu not himself, and no matter how bad the QB. The Steelers need Week 17, so DJ needs to come up big.
3) Darrell Henderson, LAR – IF he’s healthy… He left the Week 16 game early, but he was slated for more work. Week 17, the Rams should shut down Gurley and open the door for Henderson big in Week 17 vs. ARI, if not then Malcolm Brown is in a good spot.
4) DeaSean Hamilton – With so much attention on Courtland Sutton, Lock is looking elsewhere by attrition…and he seems to have something going with Hamilton. 6-65-1/6 Week 16, and the prior week he had 9 targets (in the snow, and just 2 catches). Facing Oakland Week 17.
5) N’Keal Harry, NE – You can see Brady trying to make this work…he needs Harry to happen for the playoff run. With Edelman so banged up, this week facing Miami is the perfect spot to use like a practice game.
6) Justin Watson, TB – He’s the #2 WR on the highest volume passing team in the NFL right now…he’s going to get work. With more focus on Perriman…Watson becomes viable, like last week.
Top 5 ‘Waivers to Distrust’
1) RG3, BAL – He’s not Lamar Jackson, not even close. Don’t get caught thinking he will be close in a starting spot.
2) Tajae Sharpe, TEN – He had two TDs in this game, but he’s just a bit player…a guy who sees 0-3 targets a game usually. He had a nice moment here, that’s it.
3) Myles Gaskin, MIA – Got more work than Patrick Laird Week 16, but came out injured late. The injury, the terrible Miami run game, facing motivated New England…no, thanks.
4) Rex Burkhead, NE – Got in on James White usual work in Week 16. Nice game, but not normal or emerging…it was just a thing that happened.
5) Nyheim Hines, IND – Two punt return TDs Week 16, but he's not been much the other 15+ weeks of this season…but these two PR TDs were nice moments.
6) Daniel Jones, NYG – Had 5 TD passes against Washington, who were missing their three starting CBs. Jones has been big against weak opponents a few times this season. Philly is motivated and doesn’t have the worst pass defense. I’d bet more against Jones than with him in this spot after a big Week 16.
Top 5 ‘Deep Sleeper Plays on the Radar Screen’
1) Reggie Bonnafon, CAR – IF Carolina does the right thing and shuts down McCaffrey…Bonnafon would get a full game of work to show what he can do. But I’m not sure Carolina will really do that. Norv Turner doesn’t care about Carolina’s future, just his and his son’s.
2) Jonnu Smith, TEN – Must win week…maybe, just maybe the Titans’ coaches will realize their most explosive weapon is Jonnu and they give him more than 2-4 touches.
3) Justice Hill, BAL – If Mark Ingram is hurt. Gus Edwards may not see as much time because he’ll be important should Ingram be bad off/hurt for weeks. Hill could see more Week 17 work than Edwards…maybe.
4) John Ross, CIN – Andy Dalton was trying to make Ross work all game. Tyler Boyd gets so much coverage attention that Ross has opportunity, but he’s shaky to cash in on it.
5) Hayden Hurst, BAL – As the Ravens use their backups, it might be a time that Hurst gets some nice touch counts in a game. He’s a deep-deep sleeper play at TE for the week.
6) Brett Hundley, ARI – Arizona would be wise to shut down Kyler, and Hundley isn’t bad…and he can run. Facing a Rams team that is done…could be decent.
Top 5 ‘Just Quit On Them’ Players: (listing better names here this week…not always that you MUST quit, but in 10-12 team leagues, ‘names’ we’re holding onto out of habit that we might need to leave)
*No ‘Quit on them’ player list this week, no need. Back again Week 2 for the 2020 season!!
Top 5 DSTs Off Waivers (maybe on waivers) to Consider:
*All these options, just putting the list together and seeing the details – it sucks. Really not excited about any one thing here now…
1) Packers-DST – at Detroit in a meaningful game for GB…facing David Blough and their terrible O-Line.
2) Falcons-DST – When you face Jameis, you always have the hope that he offers 2-3-4-5 pick-six opportunities. If he plays just half a game, then you face Ryan Griffin.
3) Cowboys-DST – Must win for Dallas and facing Keenum/Haskins.
4) Eagles-DST – Must win for Philly facing Daniel Jones.
5) Cardinals-DST – Might face the giving up Rams with Blake Bortles at the helm. When the Rams can sit players for meaningless games, they will. It will be a bad Rams team facing Arizona.