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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Fantasy Football Metrics

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2019 Week 3: Three Things from all Sunday Games + Top 5’s of the Week (Waivers, Buy Low/Sell High, etc.)

September 23, 2019

Alright, three weeks in the books and we have four types of people reading this…

#1) 3-0 teams who are wondering what all the fuss is about? Don’t get complacent. If you lose next week, you’ll look at your underperformers from Week 4 and think your team is doomed going forward because of X player is terrible and you have no RB depth. Everyone has no RB depth…and when they think they do it’s gone a week later.

#2) 2-1/1-2 teams that just lost Week 3…you’re looking at your team fearing for the future. Your team isn’t as good as that other person’s team you’re looking at. Your RB depth worries you.

#3) 2-1/1-2 teams that just won are like: You know what…I think I got a chance here. If ___ does ___ and I can beat ___. A win cures all things…for about 48 hours before you’re back to fearing over your RB depth.

#4) 0-3 teams…likely 0-3 because they have had ill-timed/in-game injuries combined with facing the Mike Evans or Russell Wilson types this week…and last week…and Week 1. Look, Mike Evans owners were on the verge of benching him this week after his awful first two games…had you randomly played against him Weeks 1 or 2, you don’t even think about him. You play him Week 3, and lose, and now you hate your own team because of it. It’s all in your mind -- this is the beauty and madness of fantasy/life. Sometimes we catch bad breaks.

This is the time of the fantasy season where your management, your decisions week-to-week, player-to-player, trade-to-trade matter. It was fun auto-plugging in Mahomes-Tyreek last year and winning most weeks. It’s not that this year. Things have changed and now we have to roll up our sleeves.

You’re 0-3/1-2…next week if you are 1-3 -- then 2-2 is the likely last wild card spot. You could be one game out of the playoffs with 8-9+ weeks to go. A fantasy lifetime. It’s still too early to do last rites rituals over your team.

We’re also entering the phase where team management for the past 3 weeks really matters…we’re going into the BYE weeks – depth matters. Your bench can probably beat a few teams right now (how many wins did you leave on the bench so far? There is a silver lining to that…and we’re coming into that era). Their bench sucks and is shallow. Ours isn’t. The obvious players are gone from waivers, so now we have to be smarter, a step ahead as we are…it’s what we do here…for years. You know this.  

0-3 teams, or 1-2 feeling blue teams. Maybe you won’t win your division. But all we need to do is make the playoffs and we’re fine. Make into the ‘new season’. You’ve been injured on the roster, but now you’re healing…and your opponents are due for some of those bad breaks (Saquon just happened for many). Last year Gurley teams were ruling and then they came apart in the 2nd-half of the fantasy season with him. We gotta make that one smart trade, one smart waiver claim, while they get that one injury they couldn’t afford with no depth to replace it.

Temporarily mourn your Week 3 loss, if you had them. Complain to the heavens for a moment. Then get back to work. Teams that won this week, and it was a pretty good FFM week – I don’t want to hear, “Well, X did terrible and Y did terrible…but I won anyway.” Hey, no shit. Not every player on every team is firing on all cylinders every moment. When you win you are not lucky and when you lose it’s not because you’re terrible at this game.

Fantasy is a lot like blackjack or poker or the stock market. You can’t win every hand. You won’t pick every stock that races 50% in a year. In blackjack you’re lucky to win 52% of the hands. You have to have patience. You read the board, the table. You outlast your opponents who panic at the first sign of perceived trouble. You can win a boxing match by winning more rounds and outlasting your opponent…you can’t knock all of them out in the 1st-round.

Be smart this week. Don’t be emotional…or you’re going to make emotional moves that are going to accelerate the spiral. Look for the trade opportunities as a shark, not as a frantic swimmer trying to escape the shark…thus attracting the shark with your erratic movements.  

One of the most memorable moments of my life…back when I was a bigger basketball fan than anything. NBA playoffs. Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls (that I hated for their greatness) facing Reggie Miller’s Indiana Pacers…who could never get past the Bulls in the playoffs. I want you to watch this video of the time the Pacers beat the Bulls on the last second, startling three-pointer.

As you watch it, really focus on it. Don’t drift. Watch the emotion from Miller. Listen to the announcers. Listen to/watch the fans. Watch the other Pacer players. What an emotional moment.

Then, about halfway into this 3-minute clip they will show then coach Larry Bird’s reaction when Miller hit the amazing three-pointer with Jordan chasing him – watch everyone in the background as they show the close up on Bird. Right after, Jordan has a chance to win it back at the buzzer…watch everyone’s reaction after his shot barely misses. Watch Bird’s reaction.

Watch this clip all the way through.

You are called to be Larry Bird right now...not the Reggie Miller. You are called to be Bird every Monday-Saturday managing the team. Be Reggie Miller on Sunday’s (and some Mondays and Thursdays).

YouTube video: https://youtu.be/ydaaB-YOX20




 -- Phillip Dorsett (6-53-1/7) scored his 6th TD in his last 7 games with Brady. In 14 games with 3 or more targets as a Patriot…8 TDs. Two games this season without AB…and he has 3 TDs. He’s a very solid WR2-3 every week with AB gone. He continues to improve as a pure WR talent.

 -- Sony Michel (9-11-1, 0-0-0/1) now has run the ball 45 times for 108 yards this season…2.4 yards per carry. The door is starting to open for Damien Harris

 -- Gotta find something to note about the Jets… Well, this defense plays with a lot of heart. It’s not the worst defense and they’ll get Miami a few times this season. Check this Week 9-14 schedule out: Rosen-D.Jones-Keenum-Carr-Dalton-Rosen. Not sure if they’ll have any juice (or wins) by that point.



 -- Auden Tate (6-88-0/10) is a big bodied/big catch radius 2nd-year WR. He’s got good hands and he’s obviously a big body to throw to, but he’s a little limited athletically. However, his size is his asset. Considering A.J. Green will be out for several more weeks and John Ross (2-22-0/6) is fading…Tate might see some nice targeting ahead. He’s never been this integrated, not even close…so it’s shaky.

 -- Tough sledding ahead for the Buffalo RB…NE and at TEN and then a BYE. Devin Singletary could be out again this week…and then with the BYE looming…I don’t think you have to clutch Singletary in redraft if you need the space for something else. I think Singletary will have his day/time as the starter this season…but we might three weeks away – like Week 7 vs. Miami. Maybe. I want to hold because he will take over, but this could be weeks away now that Buffalo is 3-0.

 -- Yes, I am afraid for Joe Mixon (15-61-0, 2-34-1/2)…but the Bengals have a key OL (Glenn) coming back, potentially next week, and PIT-ARI the next two weeks are decent matchups. And what else is there at RB out there?



 -- Preston Williams (4-68-0/12) took another step forward as the Miami #1 WR…the problem is they can’t score any points. Williams did catch a nice TD pass past the covering corner but in the end zone, coming down with it, a safety arrived and chopped it out of his hands. I don’t know what it’s worth, but he’s is ‘the man’ for Miami in the passing game…with them down a lot and throwing into prevents, etc., a lot.

 -- Dallas mailed this one in. They were fooling around and not focused in the 1st-half…and then suddenly it was just 10-6 Dallas at the half. Then they just ran Miami out of the building with Elliott-Pollard each going for 100+ yards. Dak (19-32 for 246 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) didn’t light it up but he did account for 3 TDs and flirted with more numbers, but penalties and near-misses abound the 1st-half and then they just ran heavy in the 4th-quarter.

 -- That was the end of the ‘easy’ schedule stretch for Dallas. Now comes NO-GB the next two weeks, but that’s not really wicked matchups either with Brees out and the Packers offense looking very mediocre. They can run the next 4 weeks before their BYE…at NO, GB, at NYJ, PHI the next 4 weeks.



 -- Courtland Sutton (5-87-0/8) has his turn signal on…he’s about to get off the exit called ‘#1 WR’. He is playing some great ball against very tough matchups the last two weeks. He was great in Week 1 and muted a bit Weeks 2-3 by, arguably, the best two pass defenses in the league (CHI-GB). I just see the greatness building, ready to hit ‘consistency’ soon…even with Joe Flacco as his QB. He’s going to be a WR1.5 type WR ahead…and a TD-maker. Mark my words. Just have to get past Week 4 vs. JAX (Ramsey).

 -- We got the RB split Matt LaFleur was talking about…Jamaal Williams (12-59-0, 2-27-0/2) touched the ball 14 times to Aaron Jones (10-19-2, 1-4-0/1) 11 touches. Jones scored TDs to salvage a real dud otherwise.

 -- For the third straight game, Denver did not register a sack in the game. It’s unconscionable that this team with Chubb-Miller, et al, has no sacks on the year. They barely have any QB hits on the season either. They are playing fairly smart, sound defense but they crack too much because the QB is untouched all the time.



 -- With T.Y. Hilton (8-65-1/10) hobbled, and even leaving this game for a bit, he was still the top guy Brissett always looks to. Parris Campbell (3-24-0/3) nor Deon Cain (1-10-0/3) feel like they have any real connection with Jacoby.

 -- Falcons safety Keanu Neal (4 tackles) appears to have torn his ACL again. If so, Demontae Kazee (6 tackles might rise again to IDP importance as he did at times last year with more playing time.

 -- This is what scares me about Calvin Ridley (1-6-0/1)…he has a big game for FF (like last week), then 1-2-3+ ghost games after. How did Ridley go an entire game with one target? Unless it was an injury, I am unaware of, this is maddening to try to figure any of the non-Julio’s out on this team…Sanu-Hooper-Devonta.



 -- This is the Lamar Jackson (22-43 for 267 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 8-46-1) that scares me for all the related pass game weapons – Andrews, Marquise, etc. Lamar is still great for fantasy production for himself but facing the best pass defense he’s faced this season (and not a great one at that) he was inaccurate and harried. Mark Andrews (3-15-0/7) and Marquise Brown (2-49-0/9) had their worst fantasy games of the season as well…useless games, and that’s a huge fear if you own – which is why I’ve been chirping about ‘selling high’. However, the schedule is pretty soft until their post-BYE Week 8…then it’s gets kinda rowdy. CLE and PIT games the next two weeks could be intradvisional wars.

 -- Thanks to random game reporter who set off the LeSean McCoy (8-54-1, 3-26-1/3) panic 10 minutes before the game started…reporting that McCoy was working 3rd in the pregame drills…and then Darrel Williams (9-62-0, 5-47-0/5) was rumored to start. None of it was true. McCoy was key/productive and started. Williams did play a bunch and really had a very good performance as well. The KC backfield may start to get more clustered than we hoped, but McCoy is the one constant I’m sure.

 -- 50/50 Tyreek Hill plays this week. If he does…you can drop Mecole Hardman (2-97-1/5) in 12-team/17-man roster like sized leagues. He’s only of value when Tyreek is out. Demarcus Robinson (3-43-1/4) will still play some as a starter, but he’s not a big part of the normal passing game. He’s the 2017-18 Chris Conley of the group…a WR3-4.



 -- Darren Waller (13-134-0/14)? Pretty good redraft pick, no? Don’t sell him short if he’s your second TE. He’s worth a lot more than you think. Don’t go chasing some two-bit RB2 using your TE depth. It’s too early to make panic moves as RBs and WRs are popping up all over. He’s a major asset. He can be used as a flex and as your TE insurance, and he would mean the world to those dying at TE. Don’t give him up for some hot RB2/WR2 of the moment. Shoot higher or keep.

 -- OK, now we can panic on the Vikings passing game…34 points scored, an easy win over a weak pass defense Oakland…and Thielen gets 5 targets and Diggs 3? I’m out. Chicago coming up this week. Use this week to sell Adam Thielen off his 3-55-1, 1-1-1/two TDs game. There are a million WR2 options to play with. Sell the name/sizzle/hot week here.

 -- YES! Vikings LB Eric Wilson (11 tackles, 2 sacks) is finally getting the chance and he will produce if given that chance. IDP sleeper for us, for a few years it seems. It might be hitting, finally.



 -- Well, we got our answer on how important Ty Johnson (4-5-0, 1-0-0/2) was to the Lions…C.J. Anderson got dumped and it didn’t mean much for Johnson. He’s just a ‘waiting for an injury to the starter’ hope at this point. However, the more Kerryon Johnson (20-36-1, 1-7-0/1) struggles…maybe it will lead to more touches. Kerryon is averaging 2.5 yards per carry this season as the main guy…not good.

 -- I saw Jordan Howard (11-37-1, 0-0-0/1) start to flex his muscle/show his skills early in this game to move the chains…and then he was yanked for more Miles Sanders (13-53-0, 2-73-0/4). The Eagles deserve to choke on this terrible run game plan they’ve worked in 2019. No fantasy hope anywhere.

 -- This was J.J. Artega-Whiteside’s (1-10-0/3) chance to shine with Alshon Jeffrey out…and, well…like I said all preseason – he’s not very good. The Eagles are dying by their own hand.



 -- This started out like wildfire for Kyler Murray (30-43 for 173 yards, 2 TDs/2 INT, 8-69-0), I thought the video game numbers were coming…and then everything just hit a brick wall in the latter part of the 3rd-quarter and melted away in the 4th-quarter. It was another step forward but not THEE step forward. At least we got the running going…on purpose. Of the non-top 4-5 elite FF QBs, of which there may just be 1-2 of them in reality ahead…Murray is the only real hope to ascend from the next tier. His bad games are still decent FF games.

 -- Kyle Allen (19-26 for 261 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) is a decent QB, but he’s not THIS good. I think this goes into the – everything works against the Arizona D category (at least until they get their CBs back). Everyone of note facing ARI should be starting for FF.

 -- Kyle Allen starts…Curtis Samuel 7 targets and D.J. Moore 2. I think we’ll get Allen for a while and that’s a good thing for Samuel.



 -- Daniel Jones (23-36 for 336 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 4-28-2) will now be a hot thing for fantasy…as I thought he might, so a good pickup to trade hot this week. Note two instant reactions: (1) I didn’t think he looked that good/great as a passer live watch…TB really mucked this up, and (2) Jones can really run the ball and thus he might be a decent QB2 to have for depth if needed. He’s like a better Josh Allen. As for me, I’m selling all this as hot as I can this week…like he’s a QB1. He might be in 4pts per pass TD leagues with his running.

 -- No movement on Dare Ogunbowale (3-23-0/3) seeing more touches, so you’re free to move on until we get some signs of life again. Will be a while/will take an injury…as these things do. Arians is a stubborn non-recognizer of RB talent.

 -- Sure, O.J. Howard (3-66-0/4) didn’t post a zero, but this was his ‘statement game’…against a cupcake pass defense? You need to find a real TE, real fast.

 -- Saquon Barkley’s replacement? I don’t think it’s Wayne Gallman…at least not for long. Let’s see who the Giants might sign this week. C.J. Anderson?



 -- Justin Jackson (5-26-0, 4-4-0/4) got more work in this game but not enough to FF-matter. He’s just an RB4 with RB3 hopes until/if Ekeler goes down. Several RBs could make that claim. Next week against Miami, though…you saw what Tony Pollard did.

 -- Two weeks in a row, Duke Johnson (2-2-0, 2-22-0/3) is not a key part of the game plan. He’s an RB3-4 for PPR…more 4 than 3.

 -- This should have been a coming out party for the LAC defense…just 2.0 sacks and not many QB hits coming into this game and facing the most sack-able QB in the league…they get just 2.0 sacks and 6 QB hits. Low numbers for such an opportunity. The LAC D is secret-bad like Denver…no pressure they can apply and leaves them lacking as a killer FF DST. However, this week against the Dolphins should be nice…but I wonder…



 -- After a two target game Week 1, Tyler Lockett (11-154-1/14) is averaging 10.5 rec. (13.0 targets), 117.0 yards and 0.5 TDs per game the last two weeks —this is the guy we were wanting to draft. That’s more like it. This should be nice all season.

 -- Another Chris Carson (15-53-0, 1-0-0/1) dud…his 3rd lost fumble in three games. There should be an RB controversy brewing, but Pete Carroll is too smart for us mere mortals. Rashaad Penny should be elevated, but C.J. Prosise (4-5-0, 5-38-0/5) is making a push as well.

 -- Taysom Hill barely saw the field, and he definitely wasn’t in at QB. With a Saints win…there’s no move for Taysom imminent. I wanted to take a look in some leagues this week. I saw it. Goodbye for now.



 -- We should have an RB controversy here, but Mike Tomlin is too smart for us mere mortals. He’ll stick with James Conner (13-43-0, 4-14-0/5) til his death. Then he spelled Conner with awful Bennie Snell (3-6-0) some, furthering the joke this team is. Jaylen Samuels never touched the ball this game. The Steelers are not 0-3 without trying. They’ve earned it.

 -- Diontae Johnson (3-52-1/6) got a nice 39-yard TD late…outside of that this was a painful game for he and James Washington (2-14-0/4).

 -- Raheem Mostert (12-79-0, 0-0-0/1) is getting into a real split with Matt Breida (14-68-0, 2-20-0/3) and Jeff Wilson (8-18-0, 0-0-0/1). Good luck trying to figure any of them out week-to-week…and Tevin Coleman will add to this mess soon. And Jalen Hurd is coming back to take some goal line work as well.



 -- Baker Mayfield (18-36 for 195 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is running the difference between Dak 2018 and Dak 2019…running the bad side. Baker is under pressure and having to move around a lot with not many people open to throw to. Dak faced that a lot in 2018…and then changes were made, and he was OK to end 2018. In 2019, Dak looks like Joe Montana. Same QB, but now a healthy O-Line, different O-C, better WRs. Baker has everything going against him right now…including schedule and a terrible WR scheme that gets none of them open very often. We have to be scared here…real scared. I don’t know that this can be fixed in time to matter for FF 2019…the schedule is brutal ahead. Is it time to cut Baker in redraft? We may be at that point. Might be one more week to see what adjustments are made. Baker looks fine, in and of himself, and makes some killer throws but if you watched SNF…he had to throw most of his passes away because the receivers weren’t open and was running for his life too often.

The one moment that could change things… If Cleveland goes to Baltimore and stomps them with Baker carrying things – the Browns move to 2-2, a tiebreaker lead over 2-2 Baltimore…and are in 1st-place and are the talk of the NFL. Lose Week 4, Baker scuffling…this thing will swirl down the drain. Week 4 means a lot to the Browns 2019 future.

 -- Jared Goff (24-38 for 269 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) is playing better than Baker…but there are concerns popping up here too. The run game is weak. The O-Line isn’t what it was in the past two years. The team is happy to be efficient and win with good defense. However, the schedule is about to turn in their favor. The next 5 weeks, on paper, you want Goff not Baker. Neither feel exciting right now.

 -- In his last 6 games (3 playoff, 3 reg. season 2019), Todd Gurley (14-43-0, 0-0-0/1) has scored 3 TDs, rushed for 100+ yards once and is averaging 1.6 catches per game. It’s a long fall to RB2-3 for the once pinnacle player in fantasy. It changes ‘that’ fast in the NFL…especially at RB.



Top 5 ‘Buy Low’

1) Kyler Murray, ARI – Kyler’s ‘bad’ games are going to be QB1 performances. Worst case, you’re getting a useable, erratic QB1 (like many QB1s, non-Mahomes, Lamar, Dak right now). But I maintain…the one QB who has a certain set of skills to start putting up video game numbers…is Murray. It may not happen every week. It may start happening too late in the season. But if you’re dying at QB, as most without Mahomes-Dak-Lamar-Brady are right now (and the Lamar-Dak-Brady people may get the rug pulled some on them now) – Kyler is your only hope at turning around a season sliding away from you. 0-3 teams, this is your QB to ride or die with (I’m assuming you don’t have Pat-Dak-Lamar)…and you may die with just basic ‘good’ fantasy numbers from Kyler and not the Utopian ones.

I have him #1 here because he’s the most reasonably obtainable and the one that could change everything…most people don’t believe. Most of you have him, but for those that don’t…he’s a great QB2 behind Dak, Lamar, etc., ‘just in case’.

THEIR Value = Barely a QB1 with a QB2 lean, and one they don’t trust.


2) Leonard Fournette, JAX – RBs are in huge demand/need. Here’s the one guy getting all the work but has had ‘meh’ production and no rushing TDs. People didn’t trust him before, and they trust him even less now. You get three things here: (1) Eventually the law of averages will go in his favor with all his touches. (2) Minshew’s rapid ascent opens up the offense more for the run game, or at least short TD opps. (3) Washington State QBs are used to using the RB as a pass game check down/weapon. Fournette had 6 catches last week.

THEIR Value = We are wanting to buy as an RB2, not as an RB1. THEY see him more as an RB2 than RB1. Maybe he ends up an RB2…then you bought something at fair value.  


3) George Kittle, SF – No TDs thru three weeks. BYE week in Week 4. THE PERFECT TIME TO STRIKE. You might get away with a ___ + Olsen/Hooper/Delanie for Kittle. Any hot lower level TE you have + a small player (like RB2.0-2.5 you don’t trust to a team panicking over RBs) might get the fading (in the public) Kittle.

Don’t trade your Waller for Kittle. We’ve arrived at Waller better than Kittle for FF potentially. Like I said the last few weeks…don’t undersell Waller.

THEIR Value = TE1 obviously, but BYE week fears and if they are 0-3 or 1-2 and just lost Week 3…panic is ensuing.   


4) Davante Adams, GB – My whole plan was to avoid Adams for the first 3 weeks due to the schedule and that was correct two of the three weeks. No TDs this season, so far.  

THEIR Value = WR1 name, but if they are in an 0-3/1-2 panic…who knows. This is a strong WR1 going forward.


5) Nick Chubb, CLE – Again, looking for RB hope…talent + touches who haven’t exploded yet. He’s still seen as an RB1, but shaky…and we move closer to Kareem Hunt getting off suspension. The panicky do panicky things…


6) Courtland Sutton, DEN – This is more for dynasty players… I see all the makings of Sutton as star about to emerge. His crime the last two weeks…facing the top two pass defenses in the NFL (CHI-GB). It gets worse…Jacksonville this week. Make note to make a deal for him super cheap this week or next. In redraft, people will be cutting him – you pounce.

THEIR Value = WR2.5, near cut-able in 12-team redraft. You can get as a throw in on a multiplayer deal.  


Top 5 ‘Sell High’

1) Adam Thielen, MIN – His stats/FF scoring is good, but his targeting is terrible as is this passing game. D.J. Chark might match Thielen for FF going forward. Sell the name and 2-TD week of Thielen as a WR1.5 mixed into a deal. We’re betting against him ever being more than a WR1.5-2.0 in this offense but has a WR1-1.5-ish appeal and great scoring this past week.

THEIR Value = WR1.5…and has a ‘name value/appeal’.  


2) Demarcus Robinson, KC – Scored another TD. Three TDs the past two weeks. Some people are in love. When Tyreek comes back, DRob will be like Chris Conley was the past two years. You might sucker someone here that DRob still starts when Tyreek returns weeks from now (but we hope Hill is back in 1-2 weeks).

THEIR Value = WR2.5…they might be in need of him for relief/help this week and he’s a WR2 of the moment. WR3 might be all you can get. When Tyreek returns…he’s a WR4.


3) Greg Olsen, CAR – Great start to the season. I never would have guessed. A great schedule of poor TE covering defenses, with the worst Week 3/ARI. Use Olsen to leverage into Kittle (or Ertz or Kelce). Olsen is a foot injury waiting to happen.

THEIR Value = Middle-range TE1, the next tier after the big names.  


4) O.J. Howard, TB – Had some numbers Week 3, so it seems like others might get your OJH from you as a ‘steal’/a bargain they are buying low. I put him here as a name to use with another player to chase downtrodden Kittle, etc.  

THEIR Value = TE1, backend -- and with fears. But if the Kittle owner has a BYE and nothing else to turn to this week…


5) Nelson Agholor, PHI – Two big weeks with the other WRs hurt. When they return, Agholor goes back to a WR4.

THEIR Value = WR2.5 at best. But the desperate might like this throw in on a deal.


Top 5 ‘Waivers to Trust’ (looking at players less than 50% owned on average)

1) D.J. Chark, JAX – You should have already grabbed him. If not, you can mostly trust him with Minshew. The team’s #1 WR.

2) Chris Thompson, WAS – Writing this in advance of MNF game. You got RB issues…this is a possible PPR RB1.5 just sitting there.  

3) Will Dissly, SEA – Three TDs the past two weeks. Faces terrible against-the-TE Arizona this week.

4) Phillip Dorsett, NE – A stable WR2, especially in non-PPR. 6 TDs his last 7 games with Brady. 3 TDs in two games with no AB on the roster in 2019.

5) Preston Williams, MIA – The #1 WR for Miami…and seizing that more and more. He’s going to get great garbage time work with Josh Rosen – this is Rosen’s guy, and that’s going to payoff and possibly shockingly so for FF.

Top 5 ‘Waivers to Distrust’

1) Ronald Jones, TB – Oh, the experts so want this to work. Every time he has a decent game they are like, “Here it comes, get ready!” Don’t. Not even in your RB desperation. You’re going to get burned because he is literally the 2nd-worst RB in the NFL. Kalen Ballage is first.  

2) Darrel Williams, KC – Once Damien Williams returns, this story is over. He looked good. But he’s secondary to McCoy, and then no touch 3rd-wheel when Damien returns. Unless we hear worse news on Damien…then this is still just a relief back.

3) Jordan Akins, HOU – Don’t get fooled by HOU using TEs great for a week. They don’t stick with that. It’s not their offense.

4) Kyle Allen, CAR – 4 passing TDs!!! He’s OK, but this is more a sign to play against ARI’s pass defense as much as you can.  

5) Wayne Gallman, NYG – I cannot believe the Giants will go all-in Gallman. This O-Line isn’t that great. Gallman is a very limited runner. I could see a split to nowhere for Gallman and ___.

6) Chris Herndon, NYJ – I see his name popping up as a craft waiver grab ahead. He’s not that good. He’s not back until Week 6. The Jets passing game is a mess. There has to be better TE gambles for the desperate!

Top 5 ‘Deep Sleeper Plays on the Radar Screen’

1) Kenyan Drake, MIA – Just a pure play that Drake is traded to a better place this week. He’s playing his butt off in Miami, to no avail. NYG? TB? NE? DET? Any team in Week 4 that gets bit by the RB injury bug?

2) Rashaad Penny/C.J. Prosise, SEAChris Carson’s time is coming to an end soon. Pick your poison on who takes over. I think Penny but if he’s seriously hurt/down a few weeks now(?)…it could be CJP time (and then he’ll get hurt). Not imminent Week 4…but we’re about a week or two away right now from Carson fully crapping the bed, maybe..  

3) Wendell Smallwood, WAS – Just a pure guess Washington dumps AP and has WS as their only real option to roll with Chris Thompson.

4) Ty Johnson, DET – Kerryon is struggling. If Ty gets a chance at a few more touches…

5) Damien Harris, NESony Michel’s underwhelming performances are creating fear. Rex Burkhead is stable but not great. Damien Harris could be the FF shock of the next few weeks if BB gets tired of Michel’s low ypc. There’s no sense not trying Harris at this point for NE.

6) Parris Campbell, IND – If a non-TYH emerges for FF, it’s Parris…or if Hilton goes down.

7) Jalen Hurd, SF – Should be back next week or two and is a unique weapon…a giant WR who is a goal line runner threat.

8) Guesses at the non-Gallman NYG RB? -- Rod Smith? C.J. Anderson? I don’t think it will be the Wayne Gallman show.  

9) Auden Tate, CIN – Someone for Dalton to throw to in all their garbage time because John Ross cannot catch and AJG is several weeks away.  

Top 5 ‘Just Quit On Them Players’:

1) Jordan Wilkins, IND – Was just a gamble last week that Mack was out. He wasn’t. Good-bye, JWilk.

2) Taysom Hill, NO – I wanted to see if Taysom might be the starter. He wasn’t. Buh-bye.

3) Darren Sproles, PHI – Was the lead RB for Philly Week 1…and garbage since.

4) Keke Coutee, HOU – Played 17 snaps and had no targets Week 3.

5) Kalen Ballage – Just because an RB is starting doesn’t mean they matter for FF.  

Top 5 DSTs Off Waivers (maybe on waivers) to Consider:

*There is like nothing interesting on typical DST waivers these days. You might need to hold two DSTs at times just to have one to use on matchups. You can’t afford to lay DST eggs in your starting lineup while holding 9 RBs trying to find the one that might get 10 touches in a week.

1) Browns-DST – This is the one defense that might be on waivers that’s actually showing signs of ‘great’. They really flustered the Rams on SNF. They squashed the Jets. They had Tennessee down before a pick-six festival happened…not the Browns D’s fault.

They will/might be dropped facing the great Ravens offense…but the Browns might do OK there, and then it’s the Weeks 5-15 schedule you really want – aside from Weeks 7 (BYE) and Week 8 (NE)…it’s a favorable schedule with BUF, DEN, MIA, and two PIT, CIN among the offenses to face.

If one current waiver defense becomes good/great ahead…it’s this one.

2) Redskins-DST – Two reasons: (1) IF Quinton Dunbar comes back/healthy and is playing, he’s the key…and (2) NYG-NE-MIA then next three weeks. With Dunbar back and Saquon out…you can use this defense that has talent in Week 4 and 6, not 5.

3) Chiefs-DST – DET-IND-HOU-DEN-MIN-TEN is not easy but not any killers on there. Maybe Tyreek or Hardman takes back a return score? They can get up on teams and force them into pick six desperation.

4) Saints-DST – Not great Week 4 v. DAL, but TB-JAX-CHI-ARI after that

5) Broncos-DST – IF Bryce Callahan comes back, they have JAX at Denver this week. Maybe it helps with Callahan back.

6) Colts-DST – Oakland this week, and that’s not amazing…and this is not an amazing defense.  


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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