2019 Week 4: Three Things from all Sunday Games + Top 5’s of the Week (Waivers, Buy Low/Sell High, etc.)
Topsy-turvy Week 4. Random results around FFM-land (and the NFL was crazy too). Mahomes down statistically, but then so many top QBs were this week. Fournette (finally) and/or Woods saved a few weeks for many reading this. Scoring was down for most fantasy players/teams across the board. If you won with a lower score…you weren’t lucky. It was that kind of week.
I know we got games still to be settled with tonight’s game, but most people reading this (according to my samplings, and private league tracking) are projecting to be 2-2 after the week settles, then the next most likely reader is 3-1, then most likely 1-3. Rare 4-0’s or 0-4’s out there this year among the FFM’ers (it’s not 2018 anymore). More 0-4s than 4-0s, sadly.
2-2/3-1/4-0 people, I don’t really need to speak to this moment. But 1-3/0-4, I will talk to…and many of you long-timers with FFM know what I’m going to say/you experienced it in 2017.
Fantasy people/experts will say, “Almost no chance to make the playoffs at 0-4.” If you’ve just lost and are 1-3…you feel about the same. The season feels lost.
It usually ends up a self-fulfilling prophecy as to why 0-4/1-3 teams don’t make the playoffs from here -- their owners start to quit/panic and pour gasoline on their fire.
Three things you have to keep in focus…
1) We’ve only had four events/weeks so far. Too small a sample to panic. You might have faced Mike Evans Week 3 instead of Weeks 1-2…how is that your football fault? We’re still early in the process. Yes...you’d rather be 4-0 now, but many of last year’s 4-0 teams didn’t realize they were about to be Gurley’d right out of title run. 4-0/3-1 teams are going to fallback to earth some. 0-4/1-3 teams are more likely about to have their moment, even if lucky (like facing the team who lost Saquon instead of facing them with Saquon, etc.).
The season is not over. Your 0-4/1-3 record is not likely a reflection of reality…more a reflection of three things: (1) You got the bad in-game injuries early this season/lost Tyreek for example. (2) Had some bad matchups/opponents with weekly high scores exasperating that. (3) You left at least one win on the bench.
2) In most leagues, 2-2 record is the last wild card today. If you’re 1-3, you are one game out of the playoffs with 8-9+ weeks to go. We’ve only booked 25-33% of the season. There is plenty of time. This is more of a 401K investment plan, not one hand of Blackjack. Keep the long view along with focus on this week.
3: Now, we are going to hit the phase where depth (we usually have it over everyone) and smart waivers and DST streaming, etc., are all going to weigh heavily. We are entering the weeks we typically have more advantage. The more injuries around the league, as is happening, the better it is for us if we react to them better (and as long as it’s not our key guys!).
We’re also hitting the time THEY, the 1-3/0-4 teams WILL panic…so take advantage of them.
The reason most 1-3/0-4 teams don’t go on to make the playoffs ahead is this is the time they panic, mentally quit, start making wild moves to correct problems that don’t really exist…and they accelerate their issues not fix them.
The Patriots barely won Week 1 in 2018. They then lost in Weeks 2 and 3, to fall to 1-2 last season. Memba that? Things turned out OK for them last year. Be Belichick -- do not panic. Manage your 1-3/0-4 team like you are 2-2/3-1 and are right near the top jockeying for position.
This is a game, fantasy football, that is like poker…it demands a poker face at all times. Sometimes you are playing with the most chips at the table at a certain point, sometimes you are the low person. It’s better to have more chips, but more chips players tend to get sloppy and overconfident. Small chip players can race back in/ahead with cunning, as the pros do. The amateurs panic at having low chips and cry about their bad luck and either go all-in too fast/the wrong time or mentally quit and slowly wait for the perfect hand that never comes.
Stop your whining. This is a game with 60-70% of it yet to play out. Acknowledge your whatever bad roster move, bad sit/start that happened. We hate the Tyreek injury. Acknowledge that you HAD your chances. They were there. New ones will emerge. Keep grinding. Manage the team as if you are going for the title. Don’t manage your team by looking at it and bemoaning every player as terrible and how everyone else has so much of a better team…you will psych yourself out. I see it every year, no matter how many times I preach this message. Tampa Bay is not scoring 55 points every week...
Many 2017 FFM’ers can tell you about 0-4, 1-4 starts we took to the wild card and made it to and through title games. The most fun year of FFM, for many, was not 2018’s killer teams (that a lot lost in the playoffs to a fluke week), but the 2017 teams that rose from the dead and claimed a wild card and raced on towards the finals.
0-4 teams…you win next week and go to 1-4, and 2-3 might be the last playoff spot. Maybe 3-2 is. But then if you win the following week, to go to 2-4, then 3-3 will be the last playoff spot – one game out with half+ the season to go.
Your team, and its future, is only as bad (or good) as you mentally decide it is. If you have no faith in yourself…you got no shot. This is a game. Their are twists and turns...that’s the fun of it. We are competing. Let’s compete this week no matter what the records are. 3-1 teams, you’re a week away from starting to cry after a loss to 3-2 looking at all the 2-3 teams behind you. 1-3 teams -- be that 2-3 team next week that scares the so-smart 3-1 team right now.
So many more hands of poker yet to play.
-- Since his big Week 1, Marquise Brown (4-22-0/7) has grown cold, especially the last two weeks – 3.0 rec. (8.0 targets), 35.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game. He hasn’t been anything special but it’s half ‘as Lamar Jackson goes’, and half Brown getting the coverage attention he’s not ready for. He was getting WR1.5 looks, but his performance is fading to WR2-3. He’s still ‘the main look’ for Lamar, so if you didn’t sell him high Weeks 1-2, you’re into a ‘hold’ position for the most part.
-- You will likely see Jarvis Landry (8-167-0) on the ‘sell high’ list this week. He’s in a position to get great targets because of so much attention to OBJ (2-20-0/7), so he’s not-nothing -- but I didn’t see any purposeful work here. Just Baker being brilliant and Landry being a little lucky some.
-- This was why we were trying to buy Nick Chubb (20-165-3, 3-18-0/4) lower last week…since he hadn’t had ‘that week’ and everyone was so down on the Browns. Now, it’s too late. Chubb should be mentioned with McCaffrey-Kamara-Elliott type RBs now. Kareem Hunt is not the threat ahead some think.
-- Kenny Golladay (5-67-2/9) keeps showing me he’s a real #1 WR…a serious WR1 that should be mentioned with the top 6-10 fantasy WRs in the NFL. He had two wonderful TD catches and left another 1-2 TDs inches/penalties away. He has 4 TDs in 4 games this season…and just missed 1-2-3 more.
-- Not a WR1…or 2…he’s whatever number WR means you suck…that’s Sammy Watkins (3-54-0/6) – a real WR(-1). Embarrassing himself with Tyreek out for the past three weeks. The most overrated WR in football the past few years.
Also embarrassing himself/is who he is…Mecole Hardman (2-9-0/5) pulled a nice disappearing act in a situation that was tailor made for him Week 4. He’s not a ‘star’ mentality WR. He’s a big talker and fast a foot…and a crappy actual WR. But really fast…
Tyreek Hill is 50-50 to return Week 5. Whenever he does return…it’s back to random events for Watkins and back to the bench for Hardman.
-- I see no effort to get Ty Johnson (3-13-0, 1-1-0/1) involved in the offense. He’s miles away from FF-happening. Like most handcuffs, he’ll only matter if the starter gets hurt. And then Detroit would go sign a veteran the following week.
-- DeAndre Hopkins (5-41-0/8) has been under 50 yards two of his last three games and under 70 yards his last 3 games with no TDs the last 3 games. A time to inquire in redraft from a panicky owner perhaps.
-- This whole week will be a discussion of – do we have a Kyle Allen issue for our Curtis Samuel (3-32-0/7)? Maybe…probably…but let me watch the game. I saw several near-miss moments for Samuel in this game. All may not be lost. His numbers aren’t that far off DeAndre Hopkins from this game…keep that in perspective.
-- Another good-looking game from Carlos Hyde (12-58-0, 4-6-0/5)…good-looking to my eyes. He’s just running the ball so well, but not enough touches to click over to mattering for fantasy big enough yet…but he’s inching closer to mattering. I like cheap investments in Hyde for RB depth/gambles ahead.
-- Josh Jacobs (17-79-0, 2-29-0/2) doesn’t have the explosive FF numbers yet, but many does he look solid running the ball. He really played a nice game. I was a Jacobs-skeptic in the preseason, but I like what I see – a nice buy low since he hasn’t had any breakout moments the past few weeks. He’s still more RB2 than RB1 in Oakland.
-- Parris Campbell (5-25-0/8) did lead all the Indy WRs in targets this game, without T.Y. Hilton playing, as I suspected – but, it looked very disjointed/not in sync at all with Jacoby Brissett. He’s nothing more than a random WR3/flex at this stage. Not impressed with what I saw here…from a ‘connection’ standpoint.
-- Darren Waller (7-53-0/8) is so THE PASS GAME for Oakland…I’d argue Waller might be the #1 tight end for 2019 to own (if in PPR). He and Kelce and Engram are going to be in a race for that honor with Ertz and Kittle trying to get into the conversation.
-- Ummm…maybe we should be starting Marcus Mariota (18-27 for 227 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) in some BYE weeks ahead? 7 TDs/0 INTs on the season and has rushed for 20+ yards in every game. Buffalo this week, and then an OK schedule the rest of the way. You could do worse. Mariota can get hot for fantasy in stretches.
-- I guess I’ll ‘pass’ on Devonta Freeman (12-28-0, 8-72-0/9) getting things going running the ball. He looks fine but the O-Line is suspect, as is the team’s commitment to the run (because they are often down and flailing back into games). The 8 catches are a shock/aberration I suspect. I’ll buy him if he’s cheap enough because he is THEIR guy for the Falcons if things turn around a bit.
-- I’ll re-watch it, but when I see these A.J. Brown (3-94-2/3) plays…they look lucky and not appealing/not captivating. I still lean ‘don’t buy’.
-- As I was saying about Daniel Jones (23-31 for 225 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs, 5-33-0) last week…
Two picks, lucky it wasn’t 3-4 here. He’s not terrible but he’s not the Giants savior. He’s more rough/bad than good.
-- Dwayne Haskins (9-17 for 107 yards, 0 TD/3 INTs) showed he’s more of a DeShone Kizer-esque bust trajectory than a great prospect, as I maintained all along. Not Kizer bad, but not good. Not the future. He’ll get Gruden fired. Haskins was so bad, so I don’t think they’ll turn to him Week 5. If he does start next week…versus New England…are you kidding me on how bad he would play there?
-- Jonathan Hilliman (10-33-0) is a UDFA rookie who is a Gus Edwards-ish type runner…big, a bull running straight ahead and trying to move the pile. Nothing special.
-- Because the Dolphins have nothing else, right now, Kenyan Drake (9-44-0, 3-29-0/5) becomes an RB2-3 hope week-to-week, in PPR, with the hope that he gets traded to a team in RB need in the next three weeks.
-- Facing Miami is like a practice game, so Melvin Gordon (DNP) didn’t see any work. He’ll be in next week, and I’m not buying the ‘bringing back slowly’ talk. He’ll be a 70/30 lead with Ekeler starting Week 5 or 6 and going forward. Ekeler becomes a random RB2-3 in PPR. Justin Jackson is dead.
-- Another week, another Preston Williams (4-46-0/7) leads the team in targets event. Another…nothing all that worthy for fantasy. He’s getting the targeting and had his hands on the ball/dropped a few. He’s a good ‘last guy on the WR bench’ to monitor how things are progressing unless you have something better to chase.
-- I’m done with David Johnson (11-40-0, 8-99-0/11) the runner…he never breaks the line of scrimmage and he’s only taken 7-11-11 carries the past three games. A waste of time as a runner for FF anymore. As a receiver, in this offense – he works. 5.5 catches per game this season and 7.0 catches per game the last two weeks. Targets/catches are tricky things to count on from an RB. I’m starting to explore deals to trade him if I can get ‘wow, DJ’ value in a trade. 2016 was a long time ago. This offense…I don’t even know what to think about it, especially for DJ. He is running near top-5 in PPR PPG among all RBs this season.
-- All I’ve heard is excuses for Chris Carson (22-104-0, 4-41-0/4)…excuses from the coaches and the game analysts. He’s ‘working on ball security’…’his arms are so long it can be an issue’…’Walter Payton had a lot of fumbles too’…’we still love Chris’. Pete Carroll is NEVER giving up on Carson…he’d literally have to fumbled five straight carries in a row, and then I’m not sure that will work. I’m done trying to be cute and chasing Penny. I’ll trade him to the Carson owner if I can get some value.
-- Christian Kirk (4-37-0/5) had his leg/ankle twisted back in garbage time late…he needed to be helped off the field. At first glance, it looks like a 2-3 week sprain issue. Not a tear or worse. We’ll see. Expect he’s going to miss some time.
-- Whatever crazy numbers you see from the Rams here, don’t buy into as some trend. This was the weirdest game of 2019. Goff threw 68 times. Everyone had huge pass game numbers. Ditto for Tampa Bay. Whatever you thought of player before Sunday…stick with that.
-- The Rams-DST looked so good early on this season…and then this mess. It wasn’t fluky…they just sucked. Marcus Peters is terrible. This whole Rams team is overrated right now. In a world where many are looking for DST help anywhere…the Rams were supposed to be a safe haven. Not so sure. SEA-SF-ATL the next 3 weeks is the worst schedule stretch they might have the rest of the season…and that’s not terrible. The schedule is favorable…but is the Rams-DST? I’d take them if someone gets pissed and drops them. This was just a weird game.
-- Hey, Ronald Jones (19-70-1, 1-12-0/1) wasn’t terrible here. He ran with a little life and less afraid than usual. I still have no interest.
-- I don’t know how long Mitchell Trubisky will be down, but they might as well just go with Chase Daniel (22-30 for 195 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) the ROS and get it over with. It’s what everyone will want this week…Chase forever. It does not help Allen Robinson (7-77-0/7) all that much but doesn’t kill him either -- he had a nice game here v. Xavier Rhodes.
-- Mike Davis was inactive. David Montgomery (21-53-0, 3-14-0/4) can not see enough touches for Matt Nagy. Montgomery now has 58 carries for 200 yards rushing this season…3.45 yards per carry. As I expected. The Bears are not a good 3-1 team…but they could be 4-0…and they could be 2-2.
-- The Vikings passing game looks terrible but consider they have been thwarted by Green Bay and Chicago along the way. They face four of the worst pass defenses in the league the next 5 weeks – NYG-PHI-DET-WAS-KC…all but DET in that group.
-- Where has this Leonard Fournette (29-225-0, 2-20-0/3) been all my life? I’ve been waiting for this. The schedule of run defenses ahead are very favorable. My first thought was – should I try to sell this high? Then I looked at the schedule and thought…no, thanks. I’ll stay unless someone blows me away.
-- I wish I would have known Jalen Ramsey was going to be inactive…then I would have boosted Courtland Sutton (6-62-2/9) some more. I was hoping he might be a ‘buy low’ for one more week…but those days are gone. The new breed of #1/WR1 guys…here comes Sutton into the conversation. Just don’t know if Flacco can turn it fully. Still, most people see him as a random WR2.5 out there in the world. He’s buy-able from people reasonably…just a bad week to do it.
-- Speaking of that…D.J. Chark (4-44-0/8) has entered that discussion of #1 WR/WR1 new era hopes. Chark had a sweet TD grab in this one…called back of course. I trust Minshew more than Flacco with Sutton.
-- The Dak Prescott (22-33 for 223 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) value will now start to fade for a few weeks (vs. GB this week) and then perk back Weeks 6-7, and 9 with NYJ-PHI-NYG those weeks. Then the nightmare begins Week 10: MIN-DET-NE-BUF-CHI-LAR.
-- Ezekiel Elliott (18-35-1, 6-30-0/7) has been good, but not great this season…now, the #13 RB in PPR PPG…behind Fournette (#12), David Johnson (#7)…and Darrel Williams (#11).
-- Alvin Kamara (17-69-0, 3-20-0/3) is #5 in PPR PPG. I think Kamara’s value is a little down in the trade market because people fear the ‘no Brees’ aspect to his game. If you ever wanted a shot at Kamara, now is the time…if it is a time.
*BUY LOW means buy LOW(er) not PAY ANY PRICE TO GET SOMETHING DONE. We’re looking for opportunity, and it may or may not be there. But the window is more open than it was last week on these players, no matter the current (non-FFM) owners say.
Top 5 ‘Buy Low’
1) Tyreek Hill, KC – This week there will be speculation on whether Hill will play or not. Everyone will use the words ‘cautious’ and ‘slowly bring back’. What else are they supposed to say? “Yes, we will rush Tyreek right back and we’re moving him to linebacker to see if 20 hits to his chest per game holds up?” Everything will be ‘cautious’ and current owners may not have a week or two to wait. If you’re loaded with great WR depth, maybe you move two hot WRs for the elite Tyreek? If you could pawn a veteran ‘name’ WR with a weaker outlook ahead (like Jeffrey or Amari for example) with a youngster WR stuck with a bad QB (McLaurin for example)…you might pick the Tyreek lock here.
THEIR Value = WR1, but they never really trusted Hill and haven’t had him before until this year (non-FFM) and all they got was nothing Week 1 and then DNP since. No good memories or attachments here. He’s like a back-end/top 10 WR for them not a top 3. Or, at least, that’s how you want to trade for it.
2) Josh Jacobs, OAK – There are not many ‘the guy’ RBs left in the NFL. This is one ‘the unquestioned guy’ that hasn’t been explosive, for FF, and the rookie new car smell is wearing off. Faces Chicago this week, and that will scare current owners and then a BYE after that…so the next two weeks are bad. If you do not need him the next two weeks, and the current owner is in trouble and sees the CHI-BYE problem ahead…you might get better than you expect.
THEIR Value = RB2 they’re worried about. You could inquire directly (one of the only times I suggest doing it), then after they BS you with how much they love Jacobs, then go…”Oh, I just looked at the schedule…CHI-BYE the next two weeks. No, thanks.” Bait the owner, but then talk about other things and see if you eventually slide JJ mixed into a deal.
3) George Kittle, SF – If this is the current owners only TE – then you if you have a fake TE1 like Greg Olsen, you could pawn that TE + ___ to try to get into Kittle. For the gutsy…your Dissly in a 2-for-2 (Dissly is really heating up but the schedule has helped). The current owner will only move him if he has something at tight end (but TEs don’t matter in FF, right?)
THEIR Value = They are vested and hopeful, but if they are 1-3/0-4 or even 2-2 coming off a loss you got a window of panic.
4) Russell Wilson, SEA – Most people don’t buy Wilson as a ‘top fantasy QB’. They just don’t. They like Rodgers, Brees, etc. They fear the Seattle offense is too run-heavy and Wilson just isn’t as sexy as Dak, Lamar, etc. He had a down week. He is seen as ‘lucky’ last week. He’s a guy that current owners think they’re ‘selling high’ to you on. If you got a Wentz-Goff, etc., type QB with heat you might be able to 2-for-2 into Wilson + ___ for your Wentz-Goff-Winston + ___ and grab him. Wilson is showing signs that he might need to throw a lot more than anyone planned for.
THEIR Value = QB1, but they don’t really believe it like a top 3…more a #7-10. He is not seen as a Dak, Watson, Mahomes, Rodgers Lamar ‘sexy’ QB.
5) Phillip Lindsay, DEN – I believe in Lindsay as a strong PPR RB1.5 ahead. Better than an RB2, not sure if he can be an RB1 week-after-week. I want him if he’s trading like a mediocre RB2 who is in a timeshare.
THEIR Value = They need to see as an RB2, or mostly don’t waste your time. For three of 4 weeks this season, he’s been nothing special. Use a fake WR2/your WR2 depth to try to extract cheap.
Top 5 ‘Sell High’
1) Alshon Jeffrey, PHI – Because of the schedule ahead for Philly. Weeks 6-11: MIN-DAL-BUF-CHI-BYE-NE.
THEIR Value = He has a ‘name’ for people. Trying to sell as a WR1.5 value if you can squeeze it…better if mixed into a 2-for-2. WR2 value exchange might have to do.
2) Jarvis Landry, CLE – Big game Week 4, but I didn’t see anything all that exciting…just a couple lucky-he-has-Baker moments. He was droppable last week. Now, he has some renewed life…deal it.
THEIR Value = You might trick someone into WR2.5 value mixed into a multiplayer deal, but WR3 otherwise.
3) Carson Wentz, PHI – Same notes as Alshon Jeffrey above. Move laterally into a better QB.
THEIR Value = Seen as a strong QB1, a top 5 guy with upside…squeeze the value out.
4) Terry McLaurin, WAS – Nothing against him, but if we’re about to enter the Dwayne Haskins era…yes, I know they played at Ohio State together but that doesn’t mean Haskins can actually hit him with a pass. There is a chance they don’t turn to Haskins for a while, so don’t rush/undersell this. Everyone loves this guy because Matthew Berry is a Redskins fan and he promotes him – now is the time to sell (if cleared for this week).
THEIR Value = WR2…a guy you exchange for Sutton, Chark, etc, or use for other things. You could get RB Lindsay for McLaurin if you’re stacked at WR and need RBs ahead…as we all do.
5) Brandin Cooks, LAR – Hot the past few weeks. Week 4 was just inflated for everything in that game. You might get decent value for someone in WR need…but difficult because so many WRs out there not many people in need, depending on how those WRs did last week.
THEIR Value = WR2 you hope to sell off as.
Top 5 ‘Waivers to Trust’ (looking at players less than 50% owned on average)
1) Jordan Howard, PHI – We all need RBs or RB depth, and acquiring more means trade power. I would get JoHo to trade unless I’m in desperate need of touches, then you hold him. I don’t believe the Eagles will stick with this strong enough week-after-week.
2) Michael Gallup, DAL – He might start getting cut as his return-to-action outlook is pushed back. He might do well in the tough schedule ahead as defenses focus on Amari, leaving Gallup to pop.
3) Robbie Gould, SF – Past his BYE. A top 10 kicker, possibly a top 3-5. You get him this week, depending upon your current kicker situation, and you don’t worry about kicker the rest of the year. Something to think about depending upon your kicker situation.
4) Chris Thompson, WAS – Hasn’t had a huge week, but has had reasonable weeks. You’ll need PPR RB depth ahead and Thompson is overlooked in that he’s better than nothing. Plus, he can have upside spikes week-to-week with heavier targets. If Jay Gruden goes…or Haskins takes over…not good.
5) Gardner Minshew, JAX – As we hit the bye weeks, and/or if you had a ‘bleh’ #2 QB…Minshew is so good…for the NFL, but still a QB2 for fantasy. More on this in my game analysis, but a star is being born…not just a story, but an NFL star. Not sure a fantasy star is born in 2019. Better than the usual QB2/QB3 dregs with upside.
Top 5 ‘Waivers to Distrust’
1) A.J. Brown, TEN – Uh, oh…two TDs this week! The rookie is a star. Don’t waste your time. He’s lucky. 2 TDs on 3 targets. He’s ‘left alone in coverage’ guy a few times and he’s hit on some plays. There’s nothing special working here. Get to trade, if anyone was buying.
2) Chris Herndon, NYJ – I don’t believe in Sam Darnold, so I think Herndon is barely top 15-18 TE worthy. But he’s a name you can trade this week to the TE desperate. Maybe.
3) DeVante Parker, MIA – We’ve been through this for years. Don’t ask me.
4) Golden Tate, NYG – I don’t love Daniel Jones, and Tate would be 3rd in line behind Shepard-Engram for touches. Too many other great WRs out there to work with.
5) Mohammed Sanu, ATL – He does this every so often…makes you care. Sanu good games usually come in bunches of 2-3, so you might get another good week.
Top 5 ‘Deep Sleeper Plays on the Radar Screen’
1) Dante Pettis, SF – Started to play more snaps as the weeks went on. Off a bye. Is a free agent most leagues. Could be the team’s #1 WR with his head screwed on straight. He’s getting more playing time…what if he’s turned the corner the past 2 weeks…and is out of the doghouse? One good week and everyone would come piling in.
2) Parris Campbell, IND – A hunch that T.Y. Hilton might be out for several weeks. Once TYH is back, little hope here for 2019.
3) Dexter Williams, GB – If Jamaal Williams is out for a few weeks, Williams will be active, and Dexter can hit home runs on a running play and get everyone excited. He’s someone to get to trade. He’s not a long-term play at all. Just a guy to hope gets a moment to trade.
4) Marcus Mariota, TEN – 7 TDs/0 INT this season with 20+ rushing yards every game. He’s not nothing anymore. He’s playing for his NFL livelihood/new contract. Bad Week 5 matchup v. BUF and then the schedule loosens.
5) Dallas Goedert, PHI – A pure speculation that he is traded to Jacksonville in a deal for Jalen Ramsey this week.
6) Devin Singletary, BUF – Likely, weeks away but if Buffalo loses this week and then has a BYE…they might come out Week 7 with Singletary as part of their new future. I’m not giving up yet. This is going to happen. I just don’t know when.
Top 5 ‘Just Quit On Them Players’:
1) Justin Jackson, LAC – Gordon back, everything else dies.
2) Damien Harris, NE – He’s never even active for games. This seems a million miles away right now.
3) Mitch Trubisky, CHI – If you held as a live body QB2…checkout Minshew or Mariota.
4) Ty Johnson, DET – The Lions don’t seem to care, and Ty hasn’t done much with his touches. He’s a Kerryon handcuff only…and not sure he’d even be that.
5) Devin Smith, DAL – Had his chance with Gallup out, and did nothing for the last two weeks. Gallup back in two weeks, I suspect.
Top 5 DSTs Off Waivers (maybe on waivers) to Consider:
*There is like nothing interesting on typical DST waivers these days. You might need to hold two DSTs at times just to have one to use on matchups. You can’t afford to lay DST eggs in your starting lineup while holding 9 RBs trying to find the one that might get 10 touches in a week.
1) Bills-DST – A true top 3-5 NFL defense. Schedule ahead works…so definitely keep them through their BYE. Mariota-BYE-Rosen-Wentz-Haskins-Baker-Rosen-Flacco-Dak-Lamar-Rudolph-Brady…through Week 16. The Bills-DST is almost matchup proof anyway.
2) Rams-DST – Some will drop after that Tampa Bay debacle. In a tough DST market, I’ll buy if I’m desperate. SEA-SF-ATL-CIN-BYE-PIT-CHI-BAL-ARI-SEA-DAL-SF ahead. This defense isn’t as bad as Week 4, and the schedule ahead is not easy but not scary either. A lot of bad O-Lines to face.
3) Saints-DST – An aggressive, sacking DST. TB-JAX-CHI-ARI-BYE-ATL-TB-CAR-ATL-SF-IND-TEN ahead. The schedule is not that bad at all.
4) Cowboys-DST – Maybe the best pure defense on here, aside from Buffalo. But the schedule is choppy…Rodgers Week 5. Wentz Week 7. MIN-DET Weeks 11-12 aren’t getting sacked as much. Week 12 at Brady. Week 15 LAR. Week 16 Wentz.
5) Titans-DST – BUF-DEN-LAC-TB-CAR ahead, then Week 10 trouble with KC, Week 11 BYE.
6) Panthers-DST – JAX-TB-BYE-SF-TEN ahead before rougher GB-ATL-NO stretch. Not a great schedule, but not terrible…and this defense is rolling a little.