2019 Week 5: Three Things from all Sunday Games + Top 5’s of the Week (Waivers, Buy Low/Sell High, etc.)
OK, another mixed bag Sunday. Not as good as last week, first wave of info. I get the overall feeling it was mixed results for FFM’ers but not bad either. Kittle or CLE-DST might save the day some tonight.
This week came down to things like…did you play Phillip Dorsett or D.J. Chark? Maybe you got it right and boat raced an opponent. Maybe not. There’s always 1-2 of those moments per season that go against you – and the bad ones we remember them going back several years. When we call them right it’s forgotten by the following week. It’s just what we do in fantasy. It’s the mindset we carry in fantasy. We have to shake that negativity, or it comes back to haunt us ahead for lineup setting and trades, etc.
Most of you reading this are looking at (depending upon MNF) or are definitely (game in the books) sitting 3-2/2-3. Some 4-1/1-4. Rare 0-5/5-0.
Everyone is living in some level of unease…it’s fantasy…it’s what we do. This FFM season has been filled with mistimed injuries, too many WRs to try to choose a starting lineup from, waiting on QBs to save the day, trying to find the right DST (non-NE people). I would just point to two things to consider, no matter your record (but more for 2-3/1-4/0-5):
1) If the final playoff spot in your league is two games away/above you…that’s two games with probably 8 weeks to go (most leagues’ wild card set up). It’s not ‘over’ if your 2 games out today. It’s not favorable, but it’s not over.
If you look at your roster with nothing but disgust and hate every player who had a bad week…it’s over. You’re going to manage it into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
We are coming up on not two but four NFL teams on BYE weeks – waiver management and depth matter now more than ever. More fantasy teams are panic trading than ever, naturally, at this point in the season. One RB injury this week may set your Samuels-Penny-Edmonds-Latavius from ‘should I cut them’ to ‘is he an RB1 now?’ At the same time, you might catch an RB break while the current owner of the real RB starter just had their legs swept out from under them.
FFM players have the depth to make a move to reel off wins in a row ahead to change the course of the season during the choppy waters of the four NFL teams on a BYE week stretch.
This is a game. Play the game. Stop lamenting and start living. Start enjoying the complete unpredictability of results and wild scoring swings every Sunday. It’s what makes this fun/interesting/maddening. Stop playing defense, stop living under a rain cloud (mentally) with your team and start playing offense. Believe in your game ability…even if you fall short in the end.
2) If you don’t think a 1-4 team could make a run from here. Let me ask you…
How many games do you think the Patriots are going to win this year? 14? 15? 16? Probably one of those numbers.
OK, who is going to face the Patriots in the Super Bowl?
Think about it for a second.
Is it Dallas? You were sure it was when they were 3-0 on an easy schedule? How about today? Not so much.
Is it Green Bay because they beat Dallas this week? Just a week ago, when GB lost to Philly at home on TNF…you thought they were the worst!
Is it the Rams? They went from 3-0 and you had them headed back to the Super Bowl after they beat the Saints, two weeks later we’re not sure they’ll make the playoffs.
Is it the Saints? The Rams can’t not stop beating them. They got lucky past Dallas. They should’ve lost to Houston Week 1. What if they lose their next two without Brees at JAX, at CHI?
Is it Chicago? The team NOT better than the Oakland Raiders?
Is it Carolina…Seattle…Minnesota…Detroit?
After the Patriots…the NFL is a mess…and it is GREAT! There are like nine teams in the NFC that could make it to the Super Bowl right now. One in the AFC (give me a break with the Chiefs), but nine potentials from the NFC.
Nine teams possible from the NFC…that’s a lot of good teams beating up on each other. One of them may make it to 11-5. Which one would you say? Whatever team you think…you can find an argument that your choice will finish 8-8 too. The NFC, and AFC non-Pats, will be a cluster of 8-10 win teams.
The NFL has great parity outside of the Patriots (and spoiler alert – the Patriots are not as good as advertised, just a gift schedule, and they are no lock to win the Super Bowl either). Every team has at least a ‘good’ QB. Every game is changed by 1-to-714 penalties happening. It truly is becoming a league of 8-8 teams looking for a break.
Fantasy Football 2019 will follow suit. Division leaders, at this point, are there because of a lucky schedule and a lack of injuries and they have THAT guy (like Gurley last year). What happens when THAT guy gets hurt, or is on a BYE, and the 4-1 FF teams start catching the Mike Evans 40-50+ week to face him versus catching him with zero (this week)?
You downtrodden teams take a step forward with a win next week, if you’re 2-3/1-4/0-5 (or any record) next week and then you trust that many of THEM will take a step back (lose next week) to help meet you/close the gap. After Week 6, a 3-3 record will be the playoffs in leagues with wildcards. Your 2-4 team is right in the thick of things. Your 1-5 team isn’t dead yet either in that scenario. A 6-7 record after 13 weeks might be the final wild card…maybe even 5-8 (as we started to see last season) in a weird year.
Point being…there is still a lot of fantasy football to go. It is not impossible for you to go on a 2-3 game win streak and totally change the dynamics from here…even if a purely lucky 2-3 game win streak. The more time you buy this season, they more time we get for our young players to break out, for Kyler to catch fire, for Baker to hit his good schedule, to find that OTHER DST, for more RB injuries to hit.
It’s not over yet for anyone after five weeks.
It only is if you mentally decide it is.
Oh, is Tyreek coming back? That would be nice too.
Time to play the game…not lament it.
-- THREE THINGS --
-- Nothing you can do on Phillip Dorsett (inj.) early in the game pulling up with a hamstring injury and never returning. A total goose egg. You plan and scheme all week, all season on things…and then something like that could’ve cost you the week. Nothing you can control. We’ll see how bad/long the injury is this week.
-- I’ll need to re-watch it, but the live watch…Josh Gordon (5-59-0/8) looks terrible…and he has looked that way all season. Totally out-of-sync with Brady, and if I realI’ve seen it most of the season than Belichick knew long ago. The Pats might make a deal for a WR this week…Dorsett down, Edelman banged up, and Gordon looks ‘lost’ again and low effort. He may be ‘in trouble’ if you know what I mean…
If you have him, you might want to try to sell off the name ASAP…if I’ve been seeing what I think I’ve been seeing. With Dorsett out and a bunch of rookies, etc., working this game – Gordon was needed to step up and he did not do that. We’ll discuss N’Keal Harry theory in the game recap as well, but he can’t come back until Week 9 (I believe)…and then we don’t know if he’ll be ready by then physically or how fast to get integrated.
-- Terry McLaurin (3-51-0/7) is in trouble with this sad offense…especially if the Redskins move to Haskins (don’t buy the ‘they’re friends’ angle – Haskins sucks). Let the weekly rankings come out from ESPN, where Matthias Berry will see to it he’s pushed big vs. Miami this week. And if you need him/the must-win Week 6, play him Week 6 and trade after. If you got plenty of other options now – I’d sell him off before the Redskins-anchor drag knocks him down to a rando WR2.5-3.0.
-- *THE JAY GRUDEN FIRING means…
1) Chris Thompson is dead, unless he’s traded to Oakland…and then still mostly dead.
2) Adrian Peterson may matter a little more under a Callahan offense.
3) Dwayne Haskins is coming, and thus everything related is in trouble.
-- I’m not kidding on what I wrote last week…Gardner Minshew (26-44 for 374 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 7-42-0) is not just ‘playing well for a rookie’ or ‘scrappy’ or ‘hot’ – he’s a future star, a current star. Again, I say…perhaps the best rookie QB play I’ve ever seen. They CANNOT give this job back to Nick Foles…and I’m the biggest Foles homer on the planet – Minshew is already better than Foles ever was. Sit with that for a second, consider that coming out of my mouth/from my fingers.
Minshew is a great NFL QB. For fantasy, he’s going from ‘OK’ to ‘good’…and pushing towards shockingly near-great (next stop). I was a big fan, scouting-wise, with him coming out of Washington State…but I didn’t suspect he’d be this good, this fast. He’s a 250-300+ yards, 2 TD per game threat in games ahead…AND he’s really slick with his feet, oddly mobile/contorting away from trouble a la Carson Wentz. I’m in total love.
-- D.J. Chark (8-164-2/11) has officially crossed over from ‘Should I start Chark or…’ to ALWAYS START Chark. Now that Minshew is flying past ‘OK’ and past ‘good’ – Chark is going with him.
-- Curtis Samuel (3-19-0, 2-25-0)…definitely below Chark now. Samuel is the main guy for Carolina, but Kyle Allen is low volume, and everything goes to McCaffrey, so we’re not getting much more than a WR2 with occasional low-end WR1 games but too many WR3+ ones. He’s still a legit WR2 potential but the upside looks limited in a weak passing game that can hide behind a run game and defense. I still have faith, but I also have too many other good WRs to work with that I don’t have to hang all my hopes here.
-- Another week…another ‘Kyler was so close’ event. Arizona has to lead the league in failed red zone drives (turned FG attempts). If they could ever figure out a few plays for the goal-to-go situations – Kyler would be huge for FF. Kyler has the most amazing ability to plant passes on receivers with the flick of a wrist, but there are not enough guys getting open. They need Kirk back ASAP.
It still remains – the only guy in fantasy, at QB, that can takedown Mahomes in a season or ROS 2019…is Kyler. Will it happen? When? Not sure. I just know it’s possible.
Murray is #7 in 4pts per pass TD leagues YTD already…and left being top 3 RIGHT NOW on the field multiple times with failed red zone/end zone shots turned cheap FGs.
-- A.J. Green should be out a couple more weeks, and maybe even a month+…which means Tyler Boyd (10-123-1/14) is an arguable WR1 in PPR for the next few weeks/month+.
-- David Johnson (17-91-0, 3-65-0/5) might be the best receiver the Cardinals have. He made two sideline catches downfield like a Pro Bowl/Larry Fitz type WR. Now, if he could only run the ball… Nice rushing game here, but man…he can’t accelerate off the handoffs like he used to. He needs time to get up to speed…he’s not an instant acceleration runner anymore.
-- What can you do if you faced Will Fuller (14-217-3/16)? They guy hasn’t done anything for four weeks and then all the sudden has an entire season in one game? Is this the start of something big with Fuller? Probably not. But maybe for the next few weeks…@KC, @IND, OAK the next three games are sweet for all things Houston for fantasy.
FYI, this terrible Atlanta team/defense – Kyler Murray hosts them Week 6!!!!
-- Houston TE Darren Fells (2-20-2/2) now has 3 TDs in his last 3 games. He’s becoming a TD hopeful any given week it seems.
-- Five games this season, and Devonta Freeman has yet to score a rushing TD and has been held at/under 30 yards rushing in four of 5 games. He’s not ‘that guy’ anymore…more so on the blocking and team early deficits taking them out of their game plan and just throwing all the time.
-- Mike Evans (0-0-0/3) has played 5 games this season…he’s had one monster FF game, 1 solid one, and 3 junk games. He’s not a WR1…because of Jameis. Chris Godwin (7-12-5-2/9) has fully become ‘the man’ among the Tampa WRs…but Jameis will probably ruin that soon as well.
-- Jared Cook (4-41-1/6) is slowly getting up to speed a potential top 12 fantasy TE again. 1.7 catches per game the first three weeks, 3.5 catches per game the last two weeks.
-- Tampa Bay’s pass defense may be the worst/best to face for fantasy after this week…32, 40, 31 points allowed the last three weeks and over 1,000+ yards passing allowed in those three contests.
-- All I will say is…I tried to warn the world about Daniel Jones (21-38 for 182 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) before and AFTER the ‘Danny Dimes’ debut. Think about how sad this is – every person who was for or against Jones, as a top 10 draft pick, prior to his debut, completely locked in that Jones WAS a real franchise QB…AFTER ONE WHOLE GAME (his debut). Now, we got real problems for NYG for years as they won’t admit the issue they have. Many people will be fired…they should start with the GM and not forget the head coach.
-- There will be some ‘will he/won’t he’ on Saquon playing this week…sell Wayne Gallman to the Saquon owner ASAP. Even if Saquon misses the short week – they play NE on TNF, and Gallman is terrible. It will be a terrible fantasy event for Gallman if Saquon out.
-- As I mentioned on the Video Q&A…all the chatter by the Minny WRs would mean respected Adam Thielen (7-130-2/8) getting fed and Stefon Diggs (3-44-0/4) not really. And that’s what happened. It’s a sign the Vikings could try to trade for a WR, then deal away Diggs. Mike Zimmer NEVER forgets.
-- The Raiders weak run defense WITHOUT it’s major ILB (Burfict) and yet David Montgomery (11-25-1, 1-11-0/1) offers up another dud. How long before Matt Nagy learns? Answer = Never. Tarik Cohen (4-10-0, 6-39-0/7) and Mike Davis still FF-useless. Cohen is Chris Thompson at-best.
-- I kinda thought this Allen Robinson (7-97-2/8) event was coming soon. The catches and targets have been there, just not the TDs…here come the TDs. The Bears have no passing game plan aside from ARob, so he’s a fantasy play most every week.
-- A very nice game from Josh Jacobs (26-123-2, 3-20-0/4) in what was thought to be a bad matchup. Jacobs is volume-ing his way to RB2 status with RB1 weeks. Not a lot of ‘wow’, just slick interior, elusive running…which you’ll take for FF with a lot of carries.
-- This should’ve been a decent/respectable chance for the Jets’ offense against the #32 pass defense (PHI), but it was the same show as last week…the QB can barely drop back before he’s got someone in his face. I don’t think the change to Sam Darnold will fix that. He might be about to get killed upon his return. The Jets cannot protect the passer. The Dallas-DST vs. them will be a good thing.
-- Jordan Howard (13-62-1) seems to have earned the lead role…good for him, but it still means he’s going to see just 10-15 carries a game. RB2-3 level work. Miles Sanders (9-15-0, 4-49-0/5) is bordering on a disaster as a runner…and he saw more pass game work, which is how he should be used (even though he’s not great at that either).
-- Carson Wentz (17-29 for 189 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) from Week 2-5…209.3 passing yards per game with four straight games under 60% Comp. Pct. – I see issues brewing here. And by typing that, he will throw for 500+ yards and 9 TD passes next week. I control Wentz by him doing the opposite of whatever sentiment I have the recent week. But something is wrong… now, it’s 10 passing TDs next week.
-- Devlin Hodges (7-9 for 68 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is a scrappy UDFA QB out of Samford who played pretty solidly in the preseason. He’s in over his head a little bit/not fully ready for this…but he’s not incompetent. And as we’ve seen from plenty of rookie/young QBs…the NFL isn’t that complicated for them when thrown into the fire.
Yes, Hodges playing hurts Diontae Johnson (5-27-0/8) and everyone else related as well for fantasy.
-- Mike Tomlin for Coach of the Year!!! He unleashed an innovative offense splitting Conner-Samuels last week, and it looked so good and worked so well – you definitely don’t want to do that again. As I feared…right back to James Conner (14-55-1) being a waste of time. Only injury to Conner or several more losses will force a change…if that would even do it. Tomlin cannot get fired fast enough for Steelers’ fans.
-- Since the Miami game, Lamar Jackson (19-28 for 161 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs, 14-70-0) has thrown for 6 TDs/5 INTs and is lucky not to have gone 0-4/have 4 losses in a row. There might be a Lamar issue, big picture, but NO ONE in the national media will say one word about it.
-- Another Buffalo win, which means they have no reason to do anything different with Frank Gore (14-60-0, 2-9-0/2) – only losses will bring on a change to Devin Singletary. However, Singletary might get some work against Miami Week 7 after their Week 6 BYE.
-- Like I said, twice… A.J. Brown (2-27-0/2). He’s not emerging here. I just don’t see ‘real’, explosive, impressive WR work.
-- Duke Williams (4-29-1/4) had such a great preseason. I’m so glad for him that he got a shot with Buffalo this week. He’s like a big TE-ish kinda receiver playing WR. A big target who was a star at Auburn, but was a Combine flop, and then went to the CFL and was a top receiver, and he’s back in the NFL. For fantasy…not likely to be consistent, like anyone, in Buffalo.
-- It looks like the roles for the LAC RBs have been established and it means Austin Ekeler (3-7-0, 15-86-0/16) will be the old Danny Woodhead dump off pass for Philip Rivers. Which means Ekeler could catch 7-10+ passes per game ahead.
-- This is why I’ve been trying to get in on all the Phillip Lindsay (15-114-1, 4-33-0/4) that I could the past 2+ weeks. He’s a strong RB1 threat in PPR ahead (among guys not seen as an RB1). So good as a runner, and so good in the passing game…it’s just this offense is so stiff, but Lindsay carries it.
-- Minus the Miami game, Philip Rivers (32-48 for 211 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) has thrown for 5 TDs/4 INTs in his other four games this season.
-- Green Bay once led 31-3 in this game, and then they took the foot off the pedal and then a bunch of weird ‘things’ happened that led to a heavy Dallas comeback attempt with a ton of fantasy action that really never should’ve been. Green Bay’s D was DOMINATING Dallas and then a garbage time frenzy happened.
-- This marks four of 5 games this season where Aaron Rodgers (22-34 for 238 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT) threw for less than 240 yards passing in a game. He’s also averaging just 1.2 passing TDs per game this season as well. He’s not even putting up QB1 numbers anymore…he’s fallen to QB2 unless a favorable matchup. Gardner Minshew is better for FF (and possibly the NFL) than Rodgers now.
-- Dak Prescott (27-44 for 463 yards, 2 TDs/3 INTs) was on his way to a total FF disaster but his garbage time work was sensational. Saved his trade value this week if you want to make any moves.
-- I could not believe Damien Williams (9-23-0, 3-15-0/4) returned from injury and started while everyone else in the backfield did nothing. We got a huge problem with this backfield now. I don’t know what is going on with LeSean McCoy (2-23-0/2 and his no carries and barely any playing time). More on this game recap Tuesday.
-- Byron Pringle (6-103-1/9) playing well, being important when Sammy Watkins went down let’s you know how important Mecole Hardman (4-79-0/6) and Demarcus Robinson (3-31-0/6) are, in general. Pringle is a solid talent, but not anyone to race out after as the next big thing. When Tyreek Hill returns…everyone not Tyreek or Travis Kelce is going to be ‘random’ for fantasy.
-- Nyheim Hines (4-46-0/5) looked the best I’ve seen him in a game here. Not any ‘this is the moment’ for fantasy, but more of…he might be necessary in BYE weeks ahead for a one-week rental. He’s becoming a Chris Thompson…1-3 carries, 4-6 catches, never any TDs…and you pray he pops one when you have to use him. He lost like 2 catches for 20+ yards here in plays taken back due to penalty. He has 3 or more catches in a game in four of his 5 games this season.
------ TOP FIVES ------
*BUY LOW means buy LOW(er) not PAY ANY PRICE TO GET SOMETHING DONE. We’re looking for opportunity, and it may or may not be there. But the window is more open than it was last week on these players, no matter the current (non-FFM) owners say.
Top 5 ‘Buy Low’
1) Tyreek Hill, KC – The cloud of ‘will he or won’t he play this week’ looms. Desperate teams will want a WR they know can play this week if they’re in must-win mode. As long as no official word has hit on Tyreek playing…there’s a slight decline in his value to extract away if you want it.
THEIR Value = WR1, but the 1-4/0-5/2-3 that just lost and are panic teams may not want to wait anymore. Do you have the hot WR (of the moment) + ___ sweetener to get him?
2) Kyler Murray, ARI – The one QB who could save lost seasons is Kyler. I’ll keep beating this drum until I puncture the skin and it cannot be said anymore/he fully takes off. He may not do so…but he might.
THEIR Value = QB1 now, up from QB2 last week…but they still don’t trust Arizona or Kyler.
3) Alvin Kamara, NO – Kamara looks all cool to you watching him play, but his current owner knows a different Kamara…the guy who has no TDs in four of his 5 games this season (and just 2 TDs total). The guy who doesn’t rush or receive for 100+ yards, but combines for 100+…not good if you get bonuses for 100+ rush OR 100+ rec. He’s rushed for 70 or less yards his last four games.
If you want in, this would be the time…but note the current owner is not really thrilled with him. Their 2019 experience hasn’t been as great as you’d think. So, don’t overtrade for it. Don’t buy how much they LOVE Kamara…it’s been a disappointment this season.
In his last 16 games, Kamara has not rushed for 100+ yards. Been over 90+ rushing once. His yards per carry is sinking in that stretch. In his last 13 games (incl. playoffs), Kamara has 6 TDs. Nice, but not ‘wow’! There’s some doubt here, but if you trust…and like him with Brees better – this might be your shot.
THEIR Value = RB1, for sure, but the door of doubt is opening.
4) Christian Kirk, ARI – If Kyler takes off, Christian Kirk is going with him. This injury couldn’t have happened at a worse time given the easy schedule stretch. Maybe Kirk comes back this week but looks good to be back by Week 7. He’s a PPR WR1…available at a discount with the injury, that may not be as bad as suspected and he’s back this week?
THEIR Value = WR2 they don’t trust because he’s not a ‘name’ for the masses, and THEY don’t trust Arizona, and he MIGHT be out for two more weeks in THEIR minds (and maybe he is, but possible back this week).
5) Will Dissly, SEA – This is the last week you can do it. There’s still some lack of respect/trust in Dissly out there…a fear he’s ‘of the moment’ and about to regress. I’m a believer. I/we don’t need him usually because we have so much Waller stock (as a TE1 or TE2/flex), but if I needed a TE…Dissly is possibly at a price that won’t kill me.
THEIR Value = They see Dissly as a TE1 that is working, some sweet TE relief they grabbed luckily off waivers. You have to have a TE to send them back if he’s their #1/only TE. If he’s their 2nd TE…you might catch them desperate for a ___ this week and willing to deal their 2nd TE, because they all think TEs are random/low value.
6) Patrick Mahomes, KC – Late add to the list after SNF closed. If you ever wanted to acquire Mahomes, this is a great time…he has 1 TD his last two games and is limping around. Your Wilson + ____ and maybe even Dak (off that big/fake Week 5 number) + ____. Lamar…Deshaun + ___. It may not be possible, but the door has opened a little.
Mahomes is now the #3 QB in fantasy PPG (4pts per pass TD) with Lamar and Russell ahead of him, Watson tied, and Dak right behind.
THEIR Value = Still held in high regard, obviously, but the last two weeks might have sent current owners to two straight losses and a panic where your Dak + Waller (if he’s your #2) to them in TE crisis and general crisis mode works. You never know how depraved the fantasy mind works.
Remember – you hate your players not playing well and idolize/don’t realize THEIR players not working lately…BUT they do the same. Their frustration with the team might lead them to make this move. When Mahomes is ON, he can carry your entire team and make up for bad BYE week RB depth, etc.
Top 5 ‘Sell High’
1) Alshon Jeffrey, PHI – Because of the schedule ahead for Philly. Weeks 6-11: MIN-DAL-BUF-CHI-BYE-NE.
THEIR Value = He has a ‘name’ for people. Trying to sell as a WR1.5 value if you can squeeze it…better if mixed into a 2-for-2. WR2 value exchange might have to do.
2) Aaron Jones, GB – Big game Week 5. All looks well ahead. It just seems like the moment Jones looks set to sail…something derails it (injury, game plan, etc.). I mention this because Jones is now white hot again. You could flip Jones in a deal for about any RB/thing you wanted right now.
PPR…your Jones for their Kamara straight up in redraft…they’d take Jones more times than not. The media has this whole ‘Free Aaron Jones’ cleverness that elevates Jones to god-like status. It was just two weeks ago Jones lost the main workload to a Jamaal Williams split. And then a week ago, Jamaal got hurt and Jones had a free run and couldn’t make it past the line of scrimmage. Hot week vs. Dallas…you might wanna cash it in at a peak valuation.
THEIR Value = Possibly their #2-3 RB overall in redraft fantasy…only CMC and Dalvin rated higher. Maybe Zeke too.
3) Carson Wentz, PHI – Same notes as Alshon Jeffrey above. Move laterally into a better QB.
THEIR Value = A QB1 but not everyone realizes how much his numbers are crumbling.
4) Terry McLaurin, WAS – Matt Berry will keep pushing this, so the rest will too. The Gruden change, the Miami game this week, the belief in Haskins…McLaurin has value. I wanted McLaurin for Sutton and Chark deals last week, but now they are out of range. So, I like the other idea better…your hot of the moment thing + McLaurin add-on for a real thing. If the person buys the McLaurin locked in WR2 with WR1 upside, you might pull a shocking trade ‘throwing in’ McLaurin because you have tons of WR depth.
THEIR Value = Strong WR2 waiting to re-emerge healthy, vs. Miami, under new management.
5) Josh Gordon, NE – Still has name appeal and now with Dorsett out, people will think it’s ‘Gordon time’. And it should be, but I am seeing some things I do not like on tape. If you can add Gordon as that hot thing + Gordon FOR a real thing deal, with Gordon as a kinda thrown in with big name appeal – you might shock yourself with the deals you can get.
THEIR Value = WR2 without thinking about it. When they research him, they might feel scared and see him as a WR2.5. But THEY always like his upside…that 2013 season is just waiting to happen again any week now.
Top 5 ‘Waivers to Trust’ (looking at players less than 50% owned on average)
1) Gardner Minshew, JAX – A top 10 fantasy QB1 ahead. More on this on last week’s game analysis article, and this week’s (later today).
2) Michael Gallup, DAL – The one legit ‘star’ WR who might be on waivers due to his injury.
3) Kenyan Drake, MIA – You need a warm body RB past his BYE week…here’s one. With the added bonus he might get traded to a team in need in the next few weeks.
4) Mohamed Sanu, ATL – A solid WR in PPR to get you through BYE week issues if you have them at WR.
5) Josh Lambo, JAX – As multiple kickers go on a BYE, Lambo is an overlooked good/great kicker on a suddenly good offense. He’s the #7 kicker in PPG this season and hasn’t missed an under 40 FG in like years.
6) Gerald Everett, LAR – I don’t really trust him, BUT anyone with TE desperation ahead he’s something…AND is a good guy to grab to offer Everett + ___ depth item for ____ real TE (who had a down week/is on BYE ahead), perhaps.
Top 5 ‘Waivers to Distrust’
1) Robby Anderson, NYJ – Sam Darnold doesn’t fix anything.
2) Jamison Crowder, NYJ – Sam Darnold doesn’t fix anything.
3) Golden Tate, NYG – Daniel Jones is terrible and Tate is just ‘meh’ anymore as a talent. There has to be better bye week WRs.
4) Josh Reynolds – We don’t really know if Cooks will miss anytime (he’ll have 10 days to recover), but when Kupp was out last year…Reynolds started and was mostly a ghost.
5) Chris Herndon, NYJ – Sam Darnold doesn’t fix anything. BUT I could grab Herndon and TRY to do Herndon + ____ depth for Dissly. Not sure many people buy Herndon, but if Darnold is cleared they fantasy media will do all the work of pushing Herndon as some TE savior this week for the ROS.
6) Byron Pringle, KC – Nothing against Pringle, I’ve been a fan. Had him as a deep sleeper in the draft guide rankings. It’s just once Tyreek is back, it’s a cluster for all the other WRs. Remember when you thought Demarcus Robinson was the next big thing?
Top 5 ‘Deep Sleeper Plays on the Radar Screen’
1) Chase Edmonds, ARI – A couple things… (1) If you have DJ, you need this because Johnson reported some back issues in-game last week. (2) Edmonds is actually running the ball better than DJ and is starting to get rewarded with more touches because of it. Six carries Week 4, eight carries Week 5 and a sweet TD and 3 catches/4 targets. (3) He’s a crisis ‘gets touches’ BYE week RB, but he also may start working a lot more as DJ moves to more of a receiver role in this very odd-for-the-RBs offense.
2) Darrell Henderson, LAR – Just a theory… The Rams are struggling. Malcolm Brown is dying. Darrell Henderson is just sitting there…waiting to be used as a Kamara to transform the offense. He has one touch/two snaps played all season. He may sit for several more weeks, BUT the moment there is a Rams rumor that they want to start Kamara-ing little used Henderson to jump start the team…he’s the waiver grab of the moment.
3) Adrian Peterson, WAS – A pure hunch that the new interim head coach tries to win games and he’s a pro-run game guy, so AP would be his man…not Gruden’s love Chris Thompson.
4) Devin Singletary, BUF – Still, my #1 dead RB that will rise from the ashes and be ‘the man’ at some point and take over the BUF backfield. With his BYE this week, he’ll be dropped by many or already has. Worse case, Singletary will be the 30% role/pass game guy coming up in a stretch where EVERYONE is going to need any RB touching the ball.
5) Steven Sims, WAS – A pure hunch that the new interim head coach would realize the best WR/the most explosive player the Redskins have is the UDFA no one cared about…except someone I know did.
6) N’Keal Harry, NE – Dorsett unknown injury severity. Josh Gordon looks terrible. NE is dying for WR help. N’Keal Harry can come back Week 9…but we don’t even know if he will. But trying to put two-and-two together…Harry might be something hot (chatter-wise) in a few weeks if he is going to return Week 9. NE has a BYE Week 10, so likely Harry doesn’t matter until Week 11+.
7) Foster Moreau, OAK – Oakland is running more two-TE sets, using Waller out as a quasi-WR. Moreau is talented and could work as the real Oakland TE, while Waller is like their real WR/best weapon…especially when Tyrell is missing.
Top 5 ‘Just Quit On Them Players’:
1) James Washington, PIT – He was dying with Mason Rudolph…can’t be better with Devlin.
2) KeeSean Johnson, ARI – The wrong WR for this style offense…wrong for FF. Not bad for the NFL.
3) Chris Conley, JAX – Week 1 was a long time ago.
4) Wayne Gallman, NYG – Saquon comes back this week, or Gallman vs. NE this week? Really?
5) O.J. Howard, TB – Wow…it’s like he’s not even on the team anymore. You need to find some other TE out there…but good luck with that.
Top 5 DSTs Off Waivers (maybe on waivers) to Consider:
*There is ‘like’ nothing interesting on typical DST waivers these days. You might need to hold two DSTs at times just to have one to use on matchups. You can’t afford to lay DST eggs in your starting lineup while holding 9 RBs trying to find the one backup that might get 10 touches in a week/gets elevated to starter due to injury.
1) Bears-DST – This goes without saying, but I put them here because…
They’re on a bye and someone may drop them because they think it’s cosmically illegal to carry two defenses.
Why I really put them on here – because they are on a BYE, you might be able to trade for them from a troubled team who cannot afford/doesn’t want to carry two defenses. Trade for what they might be considering dropping – and you carry two defenses for a week. You would then start Chicago for the rest of the season. It’s worth a bit of an overtrade to make happen and solve your revolving door DST issues (non-NE holders).
2) Bills-DST – On a BYE this week, if you don’t have NE-DST or don’t finagle CHI-DST…BUF is an interesting grab this week if someone dumps them. There may not be a huge dropping of this defense, as much as you’d think, because they face Miami Week 7.
MIA 2x and WAS are on the schedule for the next 5 weeks after the BYE.
If you have…YOU HOLD them and work another DST this week. You carry two DSTs.
3) Redskins-DST – Facing the Dolphins this week seems worth the stream. One-week play.
4) Cowboys-DST – Facing the Jets this week…that’s worth the stream trying to stay alive week-to-week. Likely one-week play…vs. PHI Week 7.
5) 49ers-DST – This is written pre-MNF game tonight. Weeks 6-11 they face a lot of sackable teams/QBs, and the 49ers pass rush is emerging as one of the best in the NFL.
6) Panthers-DST – A really good defense faces an erratic Tampa Bay offense in Europe Week 7.
7) Packers-DST – DET and OAK at Green Bay the next two weeks might be something. At KC Week 8 is a no-go.
8) Browns-DST – My only ‘hunch’ defense…one that could emerge as a monster. Great D-Line, solid LBs, and a deep secondary that is playing well with mostly backups the past few weeks. Totally healthy, this could be something real.
However, at SF, SEA, BYE, at NE the next 4 games. No real ‘starts’. BUT…then from Week 9 on you can play them every week…IF they are as good as the hunch I have.
You can probably wait…but depending on how much your league soaks up DSTs you may not be able to afford to wait. Pairing TEN with CLE and sitting on CLE idle for a few weeks would the play IF you believe in the CLE-DST. Let’s see what they do on MNF vs. SF.