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2019 Week 6: Three Things from all Sunday Games + Top 5’s of the Week (Waivers, Buy Low/Sell High, etc.)

Date:
October 14, 2019

2019 Week 6: Three Things from all Sunday Games + Top 5’s of the Week (Waivers, Buy Low/Sell High, etc.)

Well, well, well… Doesn’t life look better with Tyreek Hill? A majority reading this either have had Tyreek for years in their dynasty leagues or have made him a key part of their redraft plans this year (and prior years). He’s like the mascot, the logo for FFM. He returns back for his first real fantasy game of 2019…and look at this – the biggest FFM winning percentage week of the year across the board.

Tyreek returns. David Johnson is doing things. Kyler Murray is happening. Justin Tucker is rising to the top of the kicker scoring ranks. Suddenly, the FFM sun is starting to shine brighter.

This was me watching all the games live Sunday: https://youtu.be/gmBxRjFcnRo

As I predicted, encouraged for several weeks – this is the time of the FF season where we can make a move. Tyreek getting healthy. Kyler rising. We out maneuver people off waivers, avoid traps, and just use our killer depth to start beating people week-after-week and get any 0-2, 1-3, 1-4 starts cleaned up back into thing and in or just out of the playoff race…and those 1-2, 2-2 teams are suddenly 3-3, 4-2 and are solidly in the playoff race.

This is our time, and there is still work to do. Keep improving your team via waivers…being one-step ahead (and we’ll be discussing that all week)…zig when they are zagging on waivers. Start targeting the desperate teams that have lost 1-2-3 in a row and are still trying to stay alive and have BYE week issues this week.

In prior weeks, in my opening monologue here, I tried to keep people’s chins up who were taking on some losses for whatever reasons. Now, I can feel the momentum shift – now, my job is to make sure you don’t get comfortable as things are starting to turn our way. Be an assassin this week. Sweep the leg. There is no mercy in Kobra Ky. There are people whose legs are ripe to be swept in your league…go sweep them.

 

 

 -- Top Three Things From Sunday Games –

 

 

TB-CAR

 -- The Bucs run-defense has shutdown Christian McCaffrey (22-31-1, 4-26-1/5) twice this season…38 carries for 68 yards rushing in two games this season. They bottled up Alvin Kamara Week 5. Held the Rams to 30 yards rushing Week 4. Derrick Henry Week 8 and Chris Carson Week 9 are the next two up after their Week 7 BYE.

 -- We want to hate every solid WR2 who doesn’t have a good fantasy game for the two weeks prior, and we want to drop them for the latest hot thing…and then the talent eventually hits/they have a game that ‘rights’ their FF scoring and we’re depressed…this is why I had Curtis Samuel (4-70-1/6, 1-8-0/1) as the sleeper upside of the week and was poking fun at him as being ‘most hated’.

Now, is a good time to make a move with him…a ‘sell high’ move if you stayed with him. This is a low volume passing game for WRs that will leave Samuel wanting a bit more than not ahead. Not a must-dump, but someone you might trade hot this week…maybe.  

 -- Typical Jameis Winston (30-54 for 400 yards, 1 TD/5 INTs) game…plays awful, the team gets in a big hole, JW racks a bunch of garbage late to look like a good QB…good for FF. Mike Evans (9-96-0/16) and Chris Godwin (10-151-0/12) will thrive with awful Jameis in these types of games…which is the type of game they seem to have most weeks.

 

CIN-BAL

 -- We may need to pronounce Joe Mixon (8-10-0, 2-29-0/3) ‘dead’ or a ‘problem’ for fantasy 2019. Definitely not a sneaky ‘buy low’ – no O-Line, no coaching, no heart for the entire team…a real threat to go 0-16 this season. Even if Mixon makes some plays, gets some yards…TDs will be hard to find with his offense.

 -- Another garbage opponent, so a sweet FF game from Lamar Jackson (21-33 for 236 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 19-152-1). The cupcake schedule start comes to a virtual end. SEA-BYE-NE-CIN-HOU-LAR-SF-BUF-NYJ-CLE. A lot less opportunity to roll the weak, except that one more Cincy game. Lamar is going to dip, but still is solid for FF…and the Ravens are going to begin a descent.

 -- Auden Tate (5-91-0/12) is averaging 4.5 rec. (8.8 targets) for 63.7 yards, 0.25 TDs per game over his last four weeks of elevated playing time/starting. He’s OK as long as A.J. Green stays out. He’s done once AJG returns.

 

SEA-CLE

 -- Ricky Seals-Jones (3-47-1/6) has a TD in two of his last 3 games…and, to my eye, RSJ seems to be the one guy open and one Baker is identifying when he gets open. Seals-Jones is showing hope among a receiver group that plays like they are dead inside. Not a great hope, but some hope.

 -- The Browns are still in the AFC North hunt, barely. BYE this week, and then at New England – which may be the death of them. Odell Beckham (6-101-0/11) may be traded in these two weeks pre-NE game, but I doubt it…because New England is probably where he is going. The trade deadline is two days after CLE-NE Week 8 game. If the Browns lose to NE, expect Odell to go there…or somewhere. If the Browns win, OBJ stays.

OBJ on NE might be a WR1 again.

OBJ on CLE the ROS…WR3-4 the next few weeks and then WR1 potential from Week 11 on.

Also, OBJ is playing with the passion of a guy who can’t wait to be (1) out of Cleveland, and (2) out of football.

 -- Will Dissly tore his Achilles, so he’s done for the season. He now has an ACL and Achilles on his record. Luke Willson (2-16-0/3) likely moves into a starting role, but Jacob Hollister will see some work too. Neither fantasy viable. They won’t just pick up those leftover Dissly numbers…they will just spread the Dissly touches around randomly.

 

NO-JAX

 -- The Jags have lost several TEs this season to injury and Geoff Swaim (1-5-0/2) took an illegal hit this game and may be out for a bit. Rookie TE Josh Oliver may be about to return from his preseason injury. It’s going to be hard to project Oliver to any sneaky TE1 status – you know how coaches are into blocking and not pass game/offensive effectiveness, especially the Marrone/Coughlin types. It may take weeks for Oliver to get integrated. And, as a talent, Oliver is good not great. Good receiver but limited athlete. Promising but not imminent in my book.

Seth DeValve (1-16-0/2) may be the next man up.

 -- Gardner Minshew (14-29 for 163 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) had his first down week of the season. Credit the Saints. What I saw live…Minshew looked fine, just the Saints/both teams made this a defensive slog.

 -- Another week, another Alvin Kamara (11-31-0, 7-35-0/8) bottled up event. I’ve been trying to say for years…he’s not a real lead RB. He’s great in his role, and many other teams have guys they could use like Payton uses Kamara…they just don’t. Sean Payton knows what he is doing.

Kamara has two 100+ yard rushing games in his 40 game NFL career.

In his last 15 games, including playoffs, Kamara has rushed for 5 TDs…with 3 receiving TDs.

He’s not the slam dunk, runaway RB1 we tend to think he is. His catch counts are keeping him afloat this season for FF scoring, which is the part of his game that makes him an RB1 for fantasy/PPR.

 

HOU-KC

 -- Back to earth for Will Fuller (5-44-0/9), as expected. Note…he missed/dropped 2-3 passes and possibly 1-2 TDs, of the longer variety in this game. He almost had a big week but he’s an inconsistent catcher and he has five ‘meh’ FF weeks and that golden one Week 6. It’s who he is.

 -- We have a full-scale Chiefs RB issue. Damien Williams (1-6-0, 1-14-1/1) entered the game third in the rotation and got two touches. LeSean McCoy (8-44-0, 2-0-0/2) seems to have wrested the lead role back over…partly because of Damien’s lack of ‘pop’. Everyone is an RB3-4 until further notice. McCoy is the one that might emerge as the lead with a now desperate KC team off two losses.

 -- I told you Carlos Hyde (26-116-01, 1-14-0/1) was looking great on tape running the ball all season. He’s had 20 or more carries in a game in three of his last 5 games. He has 3 TDs his last 4 games. He’s a rock solid RB2…and RB1 upside in non-PPR.

 

WAS-MIA

 -- This was why I was hyping Mark Walton (6-32-0, 5-43-0/6) a little this week – an upside surprise RB and took some extra time discussing him on the Video Q&A Sunday morning. Walton started and got good touches this game. The coaching staff likes him and wants to push him as part of the main rotation (Ballage is done, essentially). If Kenyan Drake (10-40-0, 6-30-0/9) gets traded…Walton is all they got, among guys they seem to be using. Still, it’s Miami…this team is terrible, and numbers will be hard to come by.

 -- Adrian Peterson (23-118-0, 2-18-0/2) became the heavy lead, as expected. What does Callahan think of Wendell Smallwood? 1 carry for 4 yards – does that answer that question? It does for me…until/if they trade AP, which why they wouldn’t is beyond me…but this management team is hideous, so…

 -- Preston Williams (2-31-0/6)…unless Ryan Fitzpatrick takes over, I’m moving on from PW (in 15/16 player/12-team redraft or less). Love his talent. Super-bright future. Not doing enough now for me to hang on in normal-sized 12-team roster redraft leagues. Very much into him for dynasty, still.

 

PHI-MIN

 -- Doug Pederson is true to his word…he has clicked over to Jordan Howard (13-49-0) as his lead runner…13 carries this game compared to Miles Sanders’s 3 carries.

 -- Shocker…the pundits were wrong about a QB again… Kirk Cousins (22-29 for 333 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT) wasn’t broken because he had a bad game against the Bears defense IN Chicago!!

…and he’s not ‘fixed’ because he throttled NYG and PHI the past two weeks…two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. However, the football media is already chiming that ‘all is well’ now…after they tried to assassinate him two weeks ago.

When does the football media get put on trial for this slander…for talking about things they literally know nothing about, but still fill the airwaves with their opinions? Answer = never. If they ever got wise…I’d be unemployed, so I hope they keep acting like knee-jerk morons year-after-year.

 -- Dallas Goedert (5-48-0/8) has been playing a lot more snaps the past 3 games…like a starter level of snaps. This was the first game in that span he saw aggressive targets (8 of them, compared to Ertz’s 9). I don’t know if this a plan they are sticking with…or are showcasing Goedert for trade…or prepping Goedert in case they make an Ertz trade. It’s an unusual pattern the last few weeks for Goedert…and it’s a good thing for DG, I hope.

 

ATL-ARI

 -- Chase Edmonds (5-34-0, 2-33-1/2) looked really good early in this game…and then they just kinda forgot about him. He has more to give in this offense, and his touch counts should warrant BYE week RB3 considerations.

 -- Edmonds is running the ball better than David Johnson (12-34-1, 6-68-1/8), however DJ is becoming an All-Pro WR in this offense…and that’s what might lead him to the #1 RB scorer in PPR fantasy this season, at the rate he’s going lately. His game-winning TD catch here was surreal.

 -- The TE v. Arizona trend continues with Austin Hooper (8-117-1/8). Only Cincy Week 5 couldn’t make it work.

FYI – Patrick Peterson will now return to Arizona this week, helping that defense immensely.

 

SF-LAR

 -- I thought Darrell Henderson (6-39-0, 1-9-0/2) looked terrific…and it goes back to my advice on him last week as a flier/deeper sleeper to sit and hold – if the Rams start falling down, they will change things…and the best weapon they have sitting on the shelf is the explosive Henderson. They won’t bench Gurley for him, but they could start Kamara-ing Henderson with falling Gurley. If Gurley misses Week 7 – I bet Henderson is the main RB for that game. Losing streaks force better changes, in the NFL…a sad state of running a team, but absolutely true.

 -- ‘BUY’ everything people want to dump Rams-related…ATL and Cincy the next two weeks before a Week 9 BYE. Buy it cheap as they panic sell it – Robert Woods (0-0-0/4) on a discount and maybe Jared Goff (13-24 for 78 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) off waivers. It’s not a high crime to get punked by the 49ers defense…it’s becoming a top 3 unit in the NFL, trying to be #1.

 -- Is there a WR to play from the 49ers in the easy schedule the next two weeks? Man…no one seems to really matter. I’d guess Deebo Samuel (3-18-0/5) has the chance at consistency…but Dante Pettis (3-45-0/6) is due. Near miss TD in this one for Pettis. Hard to guess and I hope no one has to.

 

TEN-DEN

 -- Does the change to Ryan Tannehill (13-16 for 144 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) mean anything good or bad for FF purposes? Not really. I don’t see Tannehill any better than Mariota for fantasy impact.

 -- The two bad TEN QBs means Derrick Henry (15-28-0, 1-5-0/3) will still be stacked against. The schedule ahead is mostly favorable but there’s a lot of high carry counts and low YPC games coming…leaving you hoping for 25+ touches and somehow getting a TD to make fantasy hay.

 -- Royce Freeman (11-34-0, 5-42-0/5) continues to be a sneaky PPR RB3…a catching machine! 5-4-4-2-5 for catches in a game the past five games.

 

DAL-NYJ

 -- You laughed/scoffed, but what did I say last week about the Jets-defense? Pretty good, huh? Great schedule Week 8 to season end…at JAX (Wk8) and at BAL (Wk16) are the toughest offenses on the schedule…and MIA 2x, WAS, CIN, NYG. I’ll talk about this for weeks to come.

 -- A ‘get right’ game for the Dallas passing game next week hosting Philly. No Amari Cooper (?) means Michael Gallup (4-48-0/7) is set up for a huge week.

 -- That easy Jets’ schedule ahead…I wouldn’t buy into Sam Darnold (23-32 for 338 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) too hard/too much, but it’s going to get pushed in the fantasy media hard ahead. I just don’t buy Darnold or this Jets offense. One good (possibly lucky) week doesn’t change history/my scouting for me. He’s Kyle Allen-esque.

Is their a QB failing in the NFL besides Josh Rosen, Jameis Winston or Josh Allen? Hell, Devlin Hodges just thumped the Chargers on short notice/off the practice squad week ago, on MNF.

 

PIT-LAC

 -- Rookie RB Bennie Snell (17-75-0, 1-14-0/1) had a nice run in this game when James Conner (16-41-1, 7-78-1/7) got banged up a little. Really, the game was out of hand and Snell juts ran tough/tried to run it out against a weak defense. Nothing emerging here.

 -- Hunter Henry (8-100-2/9) looks just fine back from his injury that rook him away for about 6 weeks. He made a strong TE1 statement here.

 -- JuJu Smith-Schuster (1-7-0/4) is FF-dying this season with the QB carousel and he is missing Antonio Brown. He’s been exposed as a ‘good’ WR not a ‘great’ one. Totally overhyped by the media. You have him…you’re kinda stuck. Some people still like the name and think they’re ‘buying low’ from you…you might be able to wiggle yourself away from him.

 

 

 ------ TOP FIVES ------

 

*BUY LOW means buy LOW(er) not PAY ANY PRICE TO GET SOMETHING DONE. We’re looking for opportunity, and it may or may not be there. But the window is more open than it was last week on these players, no matter the current (non-FFM) owners say.

 

Top 5 ‘Buy Low’

1) James White, NE – Yes, James White is up here. #1. Why?

In a world with a lack of RB depth…James White could be moving into a position of PPR gold/RB1 status again…like last year – and he’s always cheaper than he should be. THIS IS A PPR PLAY MOSTLY.

We all go around chasing ‘carries’…trying to buy low on Mixon-Henry-Drake, etc., and then James White will simply out-do them with elevated catch counts…elevated because the Patriots are missing WRs, have no TEs, are missing OLs leading to a sluggish run game – they are struggling big-time on offense. When that happens, it’s a lot of James White simple throws to the rescue…a WR-like operating as an RB.

THEIR Value = RB2 in PPR. They see his rising production, but they don’t see him and think anything great…because he’s not the LEAD RB. You might get him mixed into a deal as a lower-end RB2/RB2.5. This is a slick move to make in PPR if you don’t bum rush in making unsolicited one-for-one James White offers out of the blue and raising awareness. Sweet talk your way into trade talks in general, and then gently get White into the discussion. Don’t tip your hand.  

 

2) D.J. Chark, JAX – Didn’t score a TD Week 6, time to panic!!! He may never score a TD again!!! Gardner Minshew got exposed! You know better, and this schedule is ‘aces’ the rest of the season.

THEIR Value = WR2, THEY did get hyped by him in some places (weeks after we were all locking him down) and still believe. If you missed out on him prior, you might have a chance to get back in not as ‘he’s not available’ like he was last week.

 

3) Christian Kirk, ARI – Kyler is starting to happen, and when he does…Kirk will be his main guy along with Fitz (and DJ). He’s been forgotten due to his injury, so he’s more relatively available.  

THEIR Value = WR2-2.5. They don’t believe and aren’t sure he’ll play this week…nor do THEY really know what they have.

 

4) Courtland Sutton, DEN – Didn’t score a TD Week 6, time to panic!!! He’s another THEY don’t believe, not really…so, they’ll think they’re trading away something falling – like THEY’D rather have Robby Anderson right now…he scored a long TD in Week 6 AND plays with the great Sam Darnold…AND the media loves everything about it. You won’t hear one word about Courtland Sutton in fantasy chatter this week…which is where the value comes in.

Why Sutton now? Versus KC this week. At Indy the following week is solid.

THEIR Value = WR2-2.5. THEY do not believe at all in Sutton, mostly.

 

5) Travis Kelce, KC – If you have Darren Waller, and you have Patrick Mahomes…you might want to consider trying to team up Kelce-Mahomes ahead.

Only 1 TD this season for Kelce. Only 4 catches in games the last two weeks – current owners see a radically different TE than you do. They haven’t gotten the ROI. He might be more available than you think – a Waller + ___ for Kelce + ____ type deal, the right deal during BYE week panic – it might do the trick with Waller-Kelce about even value to THEM because Kelce has been killing them a little bit this season (like Kittle was for people the first few weeks).

THEIR Value = Still a strong TE1, but not king of the mountain anymore. You don’t have to grind for this, but I’m just putting it out there – his value to the current owner is a lot worse than you think, but still valuable…but not untouchable.

 

Top 5 ‘Sell High’

1) Alshon Jeffrey, PHI – Because of the schedule ahead for Philly. Weeks 7-11: DAL-BUF-CHI-BYE-NE.

THEIR Value = He has a ‘name’ for people. Trying to sell as a WR1.5 value if you can squeeze it…better if mixed into a 2-for-2. Strong WR2 value exchange might have to do.

 

2) Terry McLaurin, WAS – He scored 2 TDs this past week, so he’s definitely a WR1 ahead of Julio-Hopkins-Thomas for everyone. Matt Berry will keep pushing this, so the rest will too. The value just jacked up to McLaurin for Sutton/Chark + _____.

You could just make a WR living off trading away WRs who scored 1-2 TDs last week and acquiring great ones who just didn’t happen to play Miami the week prior.

I’m a fan of McLaurin…I’m just not a fan of him not playing Miami + Bill Callahan + Haskins looming.

THEIR Value = WR1-ish, seriously…big game last week + rookie + Matt Berry = this is THEIR D.J Chark. Don’t undersell it this week. You could get Chark + __ for McLaurin this week in some circles.

 

3) Stefon Diggs, MIN – 3 TDs in one game, I need a cigarette after this. Why, he has to be the greatest WR in the world!! Also, it’s nice if he plays Philly every week. The schedule is pretty solid the rest of the way but if you don’t trust Zimmer/this passing game – this is an exit point.

THEIR Value = WR1.5…with hopes he’s traded to New England or whatever other delusion people are under.

 

4) Carson Wentz, PHI – Same notes as Alshon Jeffrey above. Move laterally into a better QB.

THEIR Value = A QB1 but not everyone realizes how much his numbers are crumbling. 

 

5) Robby Anderson, NYJ – He is the new, hot WR of the week. He is THEIR discount Sutton-Chark-McLaurin. You want out of this as hot as you can get it…and each day this week the media will push this and talk about the easy schedule ahead, and there is some reality to that. I just think the schedule part is a bit overblown and Darnold is not a great deep thrower – but you might be shocked how much people will want him this week.  

THEIR Value = WR1.5-2. This is their hot WR name, make it count this week.

 

Top 5 ‘Waivers to Trust’ (looking at players less than 50% owned on average)

1) Joey Slye, CAR – Not less than 50% owned, BUT is on a BYE this week and will be dropped a bunch. And because Kickers are treated like dirt in fantasy, while people use 11 roster spots for NFL backup RBs hoping the starter above them gets hurt in a mining accident during the week, you could have the current #1 kicker (Slye) in all of fantasy for free this week…to then use the rest of the season after. Every point advantage matters in fantasy.

Even if you own Justin Tucker and want to get Slye this week (if he’s dropped) and just use him for Tucker’s BYE next week. Not imperative to do that but something to think about for teams trying to continue rolling through the BYE week maze.

2) Robby Anderson, NYJ – Big week, off one big play. THEY LOVE the Jets things because they love Sam Darnold the same way they love Winston and Daniel Jones. Because Darnold is THEIR new icon (Winston and Jones letting them down), there will be the NY-centric football media push of Darnold and all things related this week. Including what an easy schedule ahead, which is true…but you likely have plenty of WR depth and Darnold is not a high-flyer passer making fantasy gold – he’s Kyle Allen. Allen can take Samuel only so far, ditto Darnold-Robby. Claim to trade, but don’t sweat it too much.

3) Phillip Dorsett, NE – He is going to be a 10+ TD scorer and possible WR1.5 on this team IF they don’t acquire a powerhouse WR like OBJ or AJG. If he’s back healthy this week, with no Josh Gordon…he’s going to be a top 15-20 ranked WR easy for the week.   

‍4) Curtis Samuel, CAR – Another guy not less than 50% owned, but he was dropped a bunch last week and he may get sacrificed for more RB depth during his BYE week, because people have no faith. His U.K. game made him more likely kept, but you may be surprised how many people think he is a rando who got lucky last week and can’t hold through the BYE because Mark Walton needs to be chased at all costs. A stable WR2 all season as his team’s #1 WR and high-end jet sweep ability.

5) Mark Walton, MIA – Started Week 6. Is going to get touches, but (a) he isn’t anything special, and (b) his team is awful. You could do better with Chase Edmonds in his handcuff role outscoring Walton week-to-week – but this is a guy you can claim and use for a week or claim for a quick trade throw in to the desperate in Week 7. I wouldn’t put a lot of effort into it…but he is getting better touches and the team may deal Kenyan Drake and thus leave Walton as their main guy for a week or two.

 

 

Top 5 ‘Waivers to Distrust’

1) Golden Tate, NYG – One lucky play vs. NYG on TNF doesn’t make for a special Jones-Tate connection. When the real NYG weapons return, Tate will be nothing much for FF. 

2) Bennie Snell, PIT – Had a good showing in the 2nd-half of a game on SNF, running straight ahead…slowly. Doing so against a terrible LAC run defense. He’s not a real James Conner handcuff…or very good. He’s on a BYE as well.

‍3) Jaron Brown, SEA – Will Dissly out does not mean Jaron Brown is now scoring 16 TDs this season. He will get a few more TDs, but not enough juice to be a trusted FF WR.

4) Jakobi Meyers, NE – Josh Gordon down…if Phillip Dorsett is out again…Meyers becomes elevated in need/snaps. However, he’s not ready to take on the top NFL corners. He’s just a useful hand in the passing game…a KeeSean Johnson/ARI type – solid NFL WR, but about useless for fantasy at this stage and his surrounding circumstances.  

5) Alexander Mattison, MIN – Absolutely keep as a Dalvin Cook handcuff, if you have Cook. If you’re thinking he’ll see 10+ carries a week ahead with useful FF results…not as likely. Had 7 carries the game before this, and 2 carries the game before that. He’s a good ‘guess which starting RB gets hurt’ gamble, but for a solid play Week 7 as a BYE week fill-in…you can do better (maybe).   

 

 

Top 5 ‘Deep Sleeper Plays on the Radar Screen’

1) Darrell Henderson, LAR – I saw the ‘it’ factor Week 6. After a nothing preseason and two snaps played Week 1-5, I saw ‘it’ in Week 6…the ‘it’ I saw pre-NFL Draft scouting. The 2nd-highest-rated RB in the 2019 draft class for us.

A failing Rams team needs an enema of change, a playmaker out of the backfield. Malcolm Brown failed. Gurley is falling. Henderson is the new Alvin Kamara…or could be. How fast will McVay give into it? Does he even know how to use it? Not sure, but I trust McVay more than most all coaches…and a three-game losing streak means ‘problems’…and that means ‘change’.

If Gurley is out this week…Brown may start, but Henderson will be the one to own. Henderson with Gurley may start to be an RB3 in PPR ahead.

I might be a week or three early on this, or ‘just in time’.

2) Chase Edmonds, ARI – If you have DJ, you MUST have Edmonds. And Edmonds is good enough to put up RB3-ish numbers working 20-30% of the snaps behind DJ. He looks terrific and should keep seeing 5-8 carries 2-5 targets per game. But if DJ goes down…RB1 potential.

3) LeSean McCoy, KC – The chic thing to say about the KC backfield, this week, will be ‘Who can figure it out’. I am thinking, even last week – the Chiefs run game issues might mean LeSean McCoy is inserted as a savior hope with a 60-70% lead role. It started to happen in Week 6, but now the Chiefs are even more desperate this week.

4) Dallas Goedert, PHI – So you need a BYE week TE the next two weeks? Why not Goedert as some hope he produces, but with the kicker that he or Ertz gets traded before the 10/29 NFL trade deadline…and that move making Goedert a TE1 in an instant?

5) Devin Singletary, BUF – Still, my #1 dead RB that will rise from the ashes and be ‘the man’ at some point and take over his backfield. With his BYE week, he was dropped by many or already was. Worse case, Singletary will be the 30% role/pass game guy coming up in a stretch where EVERYONE is going to need any RB touching the ball.

6) Zay Jones, OAK – A perfect landing spot for Zay. I don’t know how long he’ll take to get integrated, but this could be a new BFF receiver for Carr…the perfect quick pass/throw worker…a Chris Godwin type for Carr. Not to say Zay is going that high for output but there is some hope here he’s a legit WR3, with WR2/PPR aspirations…but it may be 2-3 weeks away…or never gets off the ground.

7) Ricky Seals-Jones, CLE – Tight end issues…BYE week or otherwise? I’m starting to see a little something-something between Baker-RSJ. It’s not for sure, not a move heaven and earth to get it thing…I’m just seeing some initial sparks here more than just random TD tight end lately. With OBJ disinterested and Landry being awful…Baker has nowhere else to go in the intermediate passing game.

8) N’Keal Harry, NE – Josh Gordon looks terrible and is hurt now. NE is dying for WR help. N’Keal Harry can come back Week 9…but we don’t even know if he will. But trying to put two-and-two together…Harry might be something hot (chatter-wise) in a few weeks if he is going to return in Week 9. NE has a BYE Week 10, so likely Harry doesn’t matter until Week 11+. The Patriots will probably trade to solve WR help.

 

Top 5 ‘Just Quit On Them Players’:

1) Byron Pringle, KC – Had a great quarter two weeks ago, when Watkins went out. There was nothing to it…I watched it three times. Just a random event once.

2) Demarcus Robinson, KC – Won’t matter with Tyreek back, and then even lower when Watkins returns.

3) Darrell Williams, KC – He may be tracking as a top RB in fantasy scoring still because he scored some TDs a few weeks when filling in but he’s the #3 RB on a team that doesn’t know who their #1 RB is and a team that isn’t even using their RBs well for FF.  

4) Chris Thompson, WAS – Jay Gruden’s guy, not Bill Callahan’s.

5) Antonio Callaway/Taywan Taylor, CLE – Antonio Callaway is the worst and Taywan Taylor cannot even get activated. 

 

Top 5 DSTs Off Waivers (maybe on waivers) to Consider:

*Suddenly, fresh DST options are starting to emerge. Some of your smartest moves ahead can be to carry two DSTs to mix-and-match their schedule opportunities.

1a) Bills-DST – A good enough defense with a good enough schedule you can run the rest of the season with. Even games against NE (Wk16), DAL (Wk13) and PHI (Wk8) are no real threats to this defensive unit.  

1b) 49ers-DST – They are showing that they transcend matchup. They are past their BYE and the face Keenum-K.Allen the next two weeks. They then have Kyler-Russell-Kyler…that might be mild trouble, or pure gold for SF. Who knows what Arizona’s offense looks like by then?

Either strong Weeks 7-11, or strong the rest of the way because SF fears not on Rodgers (Wk12) or at Brees (Wk14).

I’m ready to just roll with them the rest of the way until they prove otherwise.

3) Panthers-DST – A discount option of a great defense/DST…not as great as NE-BUF-SF, but maybe the next in line after that…maybe deserves to be in that top 3. The schedule is mostly not favorable ahead, not crushing, just mostly good QBs and not many patsies to face (like the other top Ds seem to have more of). BYE-SF-TEN-GB-ATL-NO the next six weeks.

4) Steelers-DST – Facing lesser opponents and Mark Barron not being able to play has fixed this defense. A Week 7 BYE is not good, but Week 8 vs. Miami makes them a possible stash for this week. Weeks 11-14 with CLE-CIN-CLE-ARI is facing the most sackable offenses out there. The Steelers-DST is moving towards a possible play from Week 8 on…but Week 9-10 (IND-LAR) is a possible issue.

I’m still fearful this is a defense more ripe for a fall, versus my Browns ‘hunch’ that the talent is about to rise. However, things are improving with the Steelers-D now.

5) Browns-DST – My ‘hunch’ defense…one that could emerge as a monster. Great D-Line, solid LBs, and a deep secondary that is playing well with mostly backups the past few weeks. Totally healthy, this could be something real.

However, BYE and at NE the next 2 games. No real ‘starts’ there, but…then from Week 9 on you can play them every week…IF they are as good as the hunch I have.

You can probably wait to claim…but depending on how much your league soaks up DSTs you may not be able to afford to wait.

6) Jets-DST – No good Week 7 vs. NE, and shaky vs. JAX Week 8…and then God’s gift to DST schedules from Week 9 to 14/16…MIA-NYG-WAS-OAK-CIN-MIA…BAL-PIT. This defense is really good, as I have been saying for a few weeks now…and no one in the national football analysis class sees it yet.

I actually watch the games/do my job every day…

7) Saints-DST – Three nice performances in a row for this defense. At CHI, and then vs. sackable ARI before a Week 9 BYE. The schedule is safe after the BYE, not great, but OK…and Brees will be back. You could do worse.

8) Jaguars-DST – Not playing that bad on D, could get Ramsey back at some point. At CIN, vs. NYJ the next two weeks before schedule is not favorable Week 9 (HOU) and Week 10 (BYE).

9) Titans-DST – vs. LAC and TB the next two weeks is not nothing, but then they will die after that. 



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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