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2020: Dynasty/Fantasy Preseason News, Observations, Rumors (9/5/2020)

Date:
September 5, 2020

2020: Dynasty/Fantasy Preseason News, Observations, Rumors (9/5/2020)

 

Every few days in August on FFM, per usual, I’m going to share some observations from the latest football news and share any rumors/interesting conversations I’m coming across. I have to work the phonelines heavy this August to get info because open practices, preseason games, freedom of the press is severely limited/eliminated this virus year.

In no particular order, and the items I found most interesting…

 

 -- The Bucs released Dare Ogunbowale and Raymond Calais. I’m not surprised by Calais release…I bet he gets claimed by another team before going onto the TB practice squad.

I am surprised by Ogunbowale getting dropped. I’m glad for him to move on, but can I ask – what is the purpose of training camp, practice, doing the right thing, and excelling at blocking at RB? I thought like ‘blocking’ (from an RB) meant the world to coaches? Ogunbowale is a special team’s captain and their best RB blocker…sorry, Bruce Arians somehow thinks it’s 2012-2017 with LeSean McCoy.

McCoy will demand touches of some kind. He has ZERO value on a roster other than to touch the ball. He certainly isn’t a featured player anymore. So why would you give the 2-4 carries and 1-3 targets per game to McCoy, who is otherwise useless as a blocker or for special teams – and not hold Dare instead to do dirty work?

Good luck with your protection, Tom.

I don’t get this move at all, and it makes me take my Fournette projections down a tick…McCoy is not there to watch, not for Bruce Arians. Bruce will show you he knows what he is doing.

Cutting Ogunbowale and keeping McCoy as a #3 RB may be the single stupidest NFL/operational move we’ll see before the 53-man cut down.

Where will Ogunbowale wind up? He’ll be in hot demand for the NFL (blocking RB, receiver, size, and special teams).

Philly, New Orleans, Buffalo, Giants, Jaguars, Chiefs, Las Vegas, Chicago, Washington, Tennessee are all teams that come to mind.

If the Saints or Bills land him – there might be Kamara (back) injury or Moss (neck) injury worries. More so telling injury fears if it’s the Saints. Buffalo would get a HUGE upgrade off T.J. Yeldon and Ogunbowale is a Sean McDermott kinda guy…so it may happen there and not be a harbinger on any RB injury worries – but it would drop Moss down in projections.

My Ogunbowale rankings would be:

1) Bills

2) Jaguars

3) Bears (then the Montgomery issues are more worrisome potentially)

4) Titans

5) Eagles

 

 -- I am watching what the Giants do at RB for the 53-man, specifically what they do for the backup roles.

I have heard a bunch about how Wayne Gallman got leaner/faster and might bounce Dion Lewis out of town and be the true handcuff/backup, etc. And even if Lewis stays for blocking/experience…that Gallman would be the guy if Saquon went down (again).

Do with that info what you wish, but if you see Dion Lewis cut – and if it FF-matters to you, get ready to pounce.

 

 -- From everything I can tell/hear…Steven Sims is coming out of training camp as the #2 WR ‘target’ for Dwayne Haskins, and should be starting in the slot but will move outside sometimes because he’s so fast.

If you see Trey Quinn get cut/released…then it’s for sure ‘game on’ with Sims in the slot, primarily.

*After I wrote this 9/4 eve, I wake up to see Quinn has been cut 9/5.

 

 -- Mohamed Sanu being released opens the door for two emerging things in New England…

1) Damiere Byrd to start as the #3 WR…and he’s the WR most experienced (from his time in CAR) with Cam.

And checkout Byrd’s numbers with Arizona and look at his 2019 game log…a few 6+ catch games, some nice production as a sometimes starter for Arizona (a few games).

And checkout Byrd’s measurables – he tested as one of the fastest players in the NFL (4.27 Pro Day 40-time) but also has had two ACL surgeries since.

You might enjoy/brush up on this from  me in 2017:

https://www.fantasypros.com/2017/08/very-deep-sleeper-damiere-byrd-fantasy-football/

 

2) Gunner Olszewski is moving into position as a #4 WR, a possible split role #3…the Edelman in-waiting for New England (but no Brady, so it means something different/less in that context). Belichick LOVES Gunner.

 

 -- The Washington RB scene post-AP…

I’m guessing that Peyton Barber will ceremoniously start, and J.D. McKissic will be the 3rd-down back…and Antonio Gibson will sprinkle in.

Everyone is going Antonio Gibson crazy, and I get it…but keep in mind:

1) Gibson had 33 rushing attempts in 19 career games at Memphis…he was mostly a quasi-failed WR who started getting handoffs in the 2nd-half of his senior year (and broke some big plays off them…but he was a surprise/limited tailback, jet sweep guy – not a real RB.

2) His high for carries in a game = 11 vs. Cincinnati.

His carries in games his senior year starting with his 2019 season game #1 on: 0-0-0-0-2-1-0-3-3-2-3-6-11-2

Two carries for 6 yards in their bowl game vs. Penn State  -- that’s how his rushing career ended.

And this is the guy we’re all so sure of just walks in as a Washington starter and is a star?

I know he has the measurables. So have many failed NFL RBs…guys with great measurables and poor college output/careers, but we all wanted to believe the Moneyball fairytale.

Keep in mind Gibson is also ‘impressing’ in shorts/shoulder pads/light contact scrimmages…it’s a whole different ball game when things get real. And coaches fall for this more than beat writers do.

I’m not saying he can’t do it or not to take a shot in fantasy…but it’s more fairytale than reality for me right now.

I like the target volume McKissic could be in store for.

 

 -- The last three years, per game (receiving numbers, no rushing/passing)…

5.5 rec., 74.7 rec. yds, 0.36 TDs = Odell Beckham (42 games)

5.3 rec., 65.5 rec. yds, 0.38 TDs = Allen Robinson (29 games)

4.1 rec., 62.8 rec. yds, 0.61 TDs = Marvin Jones (38 games)

4.2 rec., 65.4 rec. yds, 0.61 TDs = Marvin Jones (with Matt Stafford only/33 games)

 

What does that mean in Fantasy?

 

10.2 FF PPG non-PPR = Marvin Jones (with Matt Stafford only/33 games)

 9.91 FF PPG non-PPR = Marvin Jones (38 games)

 9.64 FF PPG non-PPR = Odell Beckham (42 games)

 8.83 FF PPG non-PPR = Allen Robinson (29 games)

 

15.14 FF PPG PPR = Odell Beckham (42 games)

14.37 FF PPG PPR = Marvin Jones (with Matt Stafford only/33 games)

14.13 FF PPG PPR = Allen Robinson (29 games)

14.01 FF PPG PPR = Marvin Jones (38 games)

 

How did we arrive at these ADPs (general avg. over all formats) in Sept. 2020?

30 ADP = Odell Beckham

33 ADP = Allen Robinson

114 ADP = Marvin Jones



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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