2020 Week 1 Analysis: Jets @ Bills (By Ross Jacobs)
Ross Jacobs has been an FFM correspondent on NFL games and NFL Draft matters for the past few years. He is going to be writing up some of his notes on various games he’s watching/studying this year. Typically, he will have written/submitted his work before mine, so this is a look at the same game with different eyes...and you can compare and contrast or find some new takeaways.
-Long story short the Bills are a good team, and the Jets are a very bad team. This was a completely one-sided affair, and the final margin was way closer than the actual game. The Jets two TD's this game came off of a crazy broken tackle by Jamison Crowder that went the distance and a score in the last minute of the game as the Bills played a soft prevent defense. Otherwise Buffalo controlled this game from start to finish.
-Most of my notes from this game are about Josh Allen. I have to admit he's turned into a plausible NFL QB, and I never imagined that happening when he was drafted. Now he's not a good QB per se, he is still erratic, makes some poor decisions, and is sometimes reckless with the ball, but with the right game plan and team around him he can win games. The Bills did a masterful job of designing their offense to maximize Allen's strengths and minimize his weaknesses. They are running a spread passing attack which opens up lots of room for Allen to operate in, and he can take off running if no receiver comes open. They avoid the middle of the field, instead preferring short outs and curls, passes that Allen has more than enough arm strength to complete. Lots of short, safe throws, screen passes, and some option concepts mimic college offenses designed to minimize the need for a star QB. And Allen definitely needs to be in a system like this because you see how inaccurate he can be when on the move or trying to hit deeper passes over the middle in coverage. That's just not his game and never will be. The Bills would be stupid to run an offense that forced him to attempt things he's bad at. More and more teams will be drafting these mobile college QB's and running similar systems in the near future. It works for Buffalo because they just need to score 20 or so points and their defense will do the rest. They'll be battling the Patriots for the AFC East this year.
-Jets QB Sam Darnold on the other hand is not a feasible starting QB. Other than Dwayne Haskins he's the worst in the league. Darnold repeatedly makes stupid decisions, throws inaccurate passes, and holds the ball way too long causing unnecessary sacks. He could barely complete a pass until the 4th quarter. The Jets will likely have a top 3 pick next year and be in the market for a new QB.
-One Jets player did stand out this game, and that was OLB Tarell Basham. He rushed Josh Allen multiple times even though he didn't register a sack and made a couple nice tackles in the run game. Overall I thought he played with good energy and toughness which is more than I can say for most of the Jets team.
-Devin Singletary looks like the superior runner to heralded rookie Zach Moss, but this is still a split backfield for the moment.
-I can't believe I'm saying this, but Josh Allen is a top 10 fantasy QB this year. His rushing production is what makes it viable.
-Avoid the Bills RB situation until further notice. Allen siphons off too many TD's, and these guys are in a split too. There's just not enough touches to go around.
-Avoid everything on the Jets like the plague. This is a place fantasy players go to die. But do start your guys against their defense, especially your WR's and QB's.