2020 Week 10: Three Things from Sunday Games + Top 5’s Waivers/Buy-Sell/Sleepers/DST/IDPs
The dreaded bye week for KC is always a slog across FFM-land.
Most FFM teams, from redraft to dynasty to best ball have either Patrick Mahomes or Tyreek Hill or both. It looks like a 57-61% win-rate week across the FFM land without that KC firepower helping…depending upon tonight’s game. That’s a ‘meh’ week, but at least we’re past the KC bye now...and not a Week 12 or 13 bye like has hurt in the past.
The second most likely QB for FFMers is Kyler Murray and many of them rolled on to victory with Chase Claypool, among others at WR.
The teams that went Lamar Jackson for 2020 or went with Mahomes and had to go with Carr-Lock-Foles type fill-ins and pushed Curtis Samuel for Tyreek…they didn’t fare so well. Some need Nick Foles to rule tonight to save the week…which is possible v. MIN.
Overall, low scoring week…but that was true for many games/leagues. It’s just that time of year with the byes and injuries, etc. But a win is a win if you got it.
We’re getting down to the final few regular-season games of FF 2020, so remember to let me know your playoff situation when emailing or posting questions on the Video Q&A’s this week, so I know where you are situated. We got some teams cruising along prepping for the playoffs already, and some teams trying to draw to an inside straight to get into the playoffs…and everything in-between. I’m here to help with it all!!
For those in need tonight. Good luck. I’m going to go watch my boy Foles at the local Buffalo Wild Wings before eating out is banned for life soon!! Kidding, but not really…
If you think your FF season is over, but you’re still in it but don’t think you can win two of the next 3 games or whatever is needed to get there. Let this guy share his 5-minute story on perseverance and improbable finishes *this is the only time Ellen DeGeneres will be involved with FFM: https://youtu.be/DLD-ZZ7IZ04
-- THREE THINGS ON EACH SUNDAY GAME (thoughts subject to change as I rewatch games all week) --
-- Duke Johnson (14-54-0, 0-0-0/1) drew the David Johnson touch count/way as a full starter…and thus a near-useless FF effort without a TD to go with it. The bad news is…this offense is terrible, and their RB output is terrible, so Duke has little upside as the starter the next two weeks. The good news is…Houston uses one RB relentlessly, so Duke will get 15+ touches each game while DJ is out…that’s something for hope that he sneaks into the end zone and makes it all worth it.
-- You can’t read anything into the low passing game numbers, and the subsequent great defensive performances from this game. It was a windy, a bit damp, slog or a game on both sides. My one passing game comment, Deshaun Watson (20-30 for 163 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 8-36-0) did not deserve that huge contract.
-- David Johnson (DNP) is out a minimum of three games, so at best he’s back Week 13. Weeks 13-15, he will face top run defense Indy, then top NFL defense CHI, then facing Indy again. In redraft, with no ability to put on I.R. – cutting him to make room for other things is not crazy. It’s not like he’s been awesome, and there are plenty of RBs crawling out of the woodwork to use week-to-week.
DJ is a full starting RB getting good touches, so he has some value…but if ‘the now’ is important, you might have to move on.
-- I see nothing working/great between Dallas Goedert (4-33-0/6) and Carson Wentz (21-37 for 208 yards, 0 TD/0 INT). They had a nice moment Week 1 and then nothing since. Many of us have been dying for the Goedert future without Ertz…it’s been depressing so far.
-- We should’ve moved a step closer to Jalen Hurts (2-0-0) starting with this loss, bit I think there is almost no chance Doug Pederson would pull the plug on Carson Wentz. Considering how well Burrow-Herbert-Tua are playing/being received in the NFL…there has to be a ton of pressure to make a change this week in Philly after losing to NYG.
If your Dynasty or Keeper team is out of the race…Hurts is definitely someone to maybe consider sitting on and seeing if a change comes about and he’s something for the future. It may not be Week 11, but if they lose AGAIN and the other NFC East teams win/move ahead in wins, going into Philly’s SEA, @GB, NO, @ARI stretch…Philly might be forced to try and get radical in those four games they’ll be overmatched in with Wentz.
-- Daniel Jones (21-28 for 244 yards, 9-64-1) is crawling into the discussion of QBs to use in an emergency in 4pts per pass TD leagues…because he is starting to run on purpose.
NYG is (3-2) in their last five games, AND Jones has rushed for 60+ yards in a game in three of those 5 games.
He’s an atrocious passer, but if he runs the ball he can hold defenses a little more honest and have more time to throw when needed. It may not be pretty on the field, but it could be OK for fantasy.
-- We all hold our breath that the game flow doesn’t go against him, but we could say that about many FF things, but J.D. McKissic (8-6-1, 7-43-0/15) kept up his huge share% of the targets working with Alex Smith here. Two things about that:
1) McKissic, in PPR, is a week-to-week RB1 now…considering the state of fantasy RBs.
2) Seven catches in this game, should’ve been like 10+. Smith missed McKissic wide open with off kilter throws multiple times. It was a great PPR number this week regardless, and it could’ve been 5-10 points higher. Second week in a row there was upside left on the table…it’s a sad but encouraging thing.
-- D’Andre Swift (16-81-0, 5-68-1/5) is now a PPR RB1 week-to-week in the new world order of fantasy RBs. They finally committed to starting him and was already running as an RB1.5 type producer…now he’s a RB1, no questions in PPR, unless a terrible matchup…and even then…
-- Matt Stafford (24-33 for 276 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) has been a major disappointment all season for FF. Washington had the #1 pass defense (by yds per game allowed) in the NFL, and in-game Stafford hurt his hand and had to be taped up/was a concern to return for a moment…and without Kenny Golladay – all that added up to Stafford’s best game of 2020.
You try and figure this stuff out?!?!
-- It was a strange game…one Jacksonville should’ve won…in the cold and wind and some wet…so, with the weather impact, it’s hard to read into too much of the passing game activity here on Jake Luton (18-35 for 169 yards, 1 TD/1 INT). BUT for the second week in a row, he had his team with a chance to win in the 4th-quarter. Next week at PIT won’t be a great projection either.
However, Luton’s next four games are home/Fla. or in a dome. Better conditions for garbage time.
-- D.J. Chark (4-56-0/5) looked fine, but no one on the team had a huge day for the Jags in the passing game. Chark was still acting, moving like a #1 WR for Luton. Green Bay did a good job taking him away.
Not good matchups with PIT and CLE (D. Ward) the next two weeks, then two great matchups with MIN-TEN, then dead Weeks 15-16 with BAL-CHI.
-- Three of their last 4 games, the Packers-DST has held opponents to 20 or fewer points scored. Also have done that in four of their last 6. It’s not a great defense but it’s not bad, and they face Rivers-Foles-Wentz-Stafford the next 4 weeks…not a bad schedule stretch for those in need.
-- Ronald Jones (23-192-1, 1-6-0/2) had a day, but that fact has us back to…is Leonard Fournette (8-19-0, 2-11-0/3) droppable this week? My answer will be…
1) Maybe, but I’m not desperately wanting to hold…except as a RoJo cuff.
2) Depends on who for.
3) He’s just a PPR back…like a swollen 2020 James White (and that’s WR3-4 work)…if the game script is right, he might get 4-5 catches in a game and be OK. Otherwise…he’s just a RoJo cuff.
-- Thanks, Curtis Samuel (3-4-0, 3-8-0/5)…you picked a fine time to stop your FF scoring pop. We needed Tyreek bye week WR help, many of us in FFM, and Samuel did not deliver. But when you look at all the player’s stats from Carolina this game…only D.J. Moore (4-96-1/7) was FF OK/cashed in on a TD.
-- The reason why the stats were a nightmare from Carolina here…the Buccaneers put on one of the most dominating defensive performances of the year here. They gave up 23 points, so it doesn’t seem like it…but the Bucs had a 544 to 187-yard advantage in this game. They held Carolina to 1-of-9 on 3rd-downs with a 36/24 time of possession hold.
At their best, the Bucs-DST is the best fantasy opportunity defense I watch every week…but they’re not the consistent dominating defenses we’ve seen in the past, but in 2020 rules/life…I’m not sure any defense can be that anymore. The Bucs, Ravens, Steelers, and Bears are about as good as it gets right now. Miami and KC might be in the discussion when at full strength.
-- It wasn’t Justin Herbert’s (20-32 for 187 yards, 2 TDs/1 INTs, 4-10-1) finest game, but he still scored solid FF points here. What this more says to me is…the Miami defense is going from good-to-trying to be great. You know how I’ve felt about the MIA-DST back to Weeks 3-4, but they’re really getting good AND here comes the moment we’ve all been waiting for…at DEN, at NYJ the next two weeks. I think Week 13 v. CIN is a solid play and then no good Week 14 (KC) but then strong Week 15 hosting NE. Four of the next 5 weeks is a green light for this emerging top defense.
-- As we spoke of Sunday morning on the Video Q&A…Kalen Ballage (18-68-0, 5-34-0/6) is the new top dog for the Chargers. I’m not even sure Troymaine Pope even played this game. Ballage is now an RB2 hopeful until Austin Ekeler returns…if he returns (I think unlikely to).
-- Is Salvon Ahmed (21-85-1, 1-5-0/1) the new lead for Miami, even when Myles Gaskin comes back? He looks better than Gaskin to me, but I would bet Brian Flores goes back to Gaskin as the lead. It does mean Matt Breida and Jordan Howard are a giant pile of money set on fire in 2020.
-- I’m probably delusional, but I have to think the benching of Drew Lock (23-47 for 257 yards, 1 TD/4 INTs) has to happen this week. But that’s just me…
What John Elway will do is blame it on the coaches and force them to play Lock/protect Lock’s fragile ego. If Lock really is benched, then Elway believes in his coaches/has given up on Lock. If Lock stays in as starter, it’s a spit in the face, by Elway, on the coaching staff.
Maybe it’s best to leave Lock in to ensure more losses/tanking for Trevor.
-- Devontae Booker’s (16-81-2, 1-2-0/1) revenge! Think about the fact that Denver could’ve kept a Booker-Lindsay backfield and not spent/pissed away $16M on Melvin Gordon. The best RB on the Broncos roster in 2020, is the Raiders backup, former Bronco…Devontae Booker.
Way to go John (Elway)! What kind of cool Black Friday new car pricing do you have for the city of Denver this year? I assume that’s what you spend your actual brainpower on…it can’t be football operations.
-- Nelson Agholor (1-8-0/4) is the Raiders #1 WR, and again with the low targeting. Bryan Edwards (1-16-0/1) is not going to matter for fantasy in this mess, even if he takes over the #1 spot, unless there’s a complete overhaul of the offense in 2021.
-- You know how the Raiders are with their all-RBs and TEs, offense and they give crumbs to their WRs in their offense? Buffalo is the exact opposite…28 off 33 passes completed by Josh Allen (32-49 for 284 yards, 2 TD/2 INT) went to Diggs-Beasley-Brown-McKenzie. That’s why I pushed that John Brown has nice value…if healthy, which he’s hurt again…not sure how bad yet. Could be minor.
-- The Bills’ RBs touched the ball a combined 13 times. Josh Allen had more rushing yards (38) than Moss-Singletary combined (35).
You needed to trade Zack Moss (7-20-0, 1-0-0/2) in the past two weeks with his jacked-up value. Now, you lost half that jacked up value this week.
-- I did not believe Kenyan Drake (16-100-0, 1-9-0/1) would play…or be that effective if he did. I was wrong. Drake had one of his best games of the year. Chase Edmonds (8-56-0, 3-21-0/3) goes back to being an RB3 in PPR, sadly.
-- Big Ben (27-46 for 333 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) missed practice all week with COVID quarantined, plus finished last week’s game limping around from a serious knee sprain/injury of some kind…and he just goes out and has 300+ yards and 4 TDs in the rain and wind gusts.
At Jacksonville next week is solid, but then BAL, WSH, at BUF…three solid defenses and all in potential unkind weather for upside passing. I’m not suggesting it’s a need to bench everything ahead but note Weeks 12-16 could all be cool/unfavorable/crap weather against mostly good+ pass defenses.
-- Chase Claypool (4-56-2/10) got his TDs and thus had a good FF week, as we’ve all come to expect. Here’s the thing…had Ben been more accurate…we could’ve had 2-3 more catches for 50-75+ yards and another 1-2 TDs. The Claypool targets are great…but they misconnected a ton early. Chase is Ben’s go-to.
-- Joe Burrow (21-40 for 213 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) struggled with the Steelers D, with the rain/wind a bit, and with an ankle/leg injury…he was hobbling around too much for my liking. We have to watch and see this week if they don’t hold him out a week. Why push him? If they do that…then the Washington-DST is hot for Week 11.
-- Well, we now move from ‘last week’s low tallies was just because of a blowout’ to ‘is something wrong with Michael Thomas (2-27-0/7)? I have to re-watch this to see what happened, but now I’d be nervous…plus, what if Drew Brees is out? Jameis Winston, really?
-- So, Drew Brees goes down…and Jameis Winston (6-10 for 63 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) instantly appears. The Saints have no plan to make Taysom Hill (0-0 passing, 8 carries for 45 yards, 0-0-0/0) their QB…ever…do they?
Just note…if Brees misses a week, and Taysom does start for a week at QB, but qualifies as a TE – that could win you Week 11. Just sayin’.
-- Nick Mullens (24-38 for 247 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) is about to lose his job…again. Kyle Shanahan has to want to see what C.J. Beathard (0-1 passing) can do…unless he’d rather keep losing for draft stock in this lost season.
-- What was supposed to be this great point tally/passing affair turned out to see no passing TDs between Russell Wilson (22-37 for 248 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) and Jared Goff (27-37 for 302 yards, 0 TD/0 INT). Two things come to mind here…
1) No more ‘Russell Wilson for MVP’ talk, please. Josh Allen is more deserving of that kind of talk.
2) Wilson has 9 TDs/7 INTs his past 4 games. Something has been figured out by defenses because he has never thrown interceptions like he has recently.
-- Wow, Jalen Ramsey did takeout D.K. Metcalf (2-28-0/4). I’m going to focus on them during the re-watch…maybe NFL teams have finally figured out how to play DKM? Who will Ramsey take out on the Bucs this week? Not sure.
-- It was only a matter of time before Sean McVay forced his desires…Cam Akers (10-38-0), in a tight/important game, led the RB crew in carries. Darrell Henderson (7-28-1, 1-5-0/1) is NEVER going to matter seriously for FF as long as Cam Akers is alive. Akers is the new David Montgomery, I fear…the guy we cannot figure out why he’s starting/getting all the touches…but he does, constantly.
-- So, this was supposed to be the beginning of the J.K. Dobbins (5-13-0, 1-1-0/2) march to being the starter? He didn’t start and the typical RBBC rotation was at work here.
I want to give up on Dobbins in redraft, but perhaps this loss makes the Ravens finally decide to overhaul things – they need to do something because this team is fading fast.
-- The Ravens could look over and see Damien Harris (22-121-0) doing damage and think maybe a change to a young/talented RB would be smart. However, Harris is still an RB2-3 for FF…because he’s never involved in the passing game and rarely gets TD chances. Rex Burkhead (6-31-0, 4-35-2/5) was the better fantasy play…again…despite Harris rushing for 100+ yards, again.
-- Marquise Brown (2-14-0/6) is redraft dead and Jakobi Meyers (5-59-0/7, 1-1 passing for 24 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is 10x better a WR than ‘Hollywood’. Meyers is put on a low-key WR clinic week-to-week now.
===== FIVE PLAYERS… =====
**NOTE: Tuesday Night Waiver Madness Video Q&A 8:00-9:30pmET, where we will go over more of all these things (below) every Tuesday night**
Five Waivers To Trust…
*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.
**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me.
***FAAB % mentioned at any time below is based on a 17-20 man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.
1) RB Wayne Gallman (B)
What more do you want? A real starting RB getting good touches and always scoring TDs! In this environment of FF 2020, he’s an RB1.
I’d rate him higher but NYG is on a bye, so if you get him you’ll have to wait a week to use – but he’s an RB1 now, so whatever that’s worth to you. Not a strong RB1, but 50+ yards rushing and a TD every week with a few catches? It’s like/better than Todd Gurley…and better than about 20 other big name RBs.
2) RB Kalen Ballage, LAC (C+)
He’s become the #1 RB for Anthony Lynn. Stole his heart. Troymaine Pope returned and didn’t touch the ball Week 10. Josh Kelley is in the doghouse. Ekeler-Jackson are on I.R. It’s the Ballage show now, and arguably he should be #1 on this list because of the offense he plays in…good scoring opportunities.
Also, I’ve never been a fan…but he looks the best I’ve seen him working with LAC. Looks slimmed, quicker, and hungry/desperate. But I’m worried he falls back to earth, but more worried about how crappy all RBs are…so, I’ll ride this train.
3) RB LaMichael Perine, NYJ (C)
He’s the announced new lead back for NYJ…the problem is – it’s for the Jets. Frank Gore was the lead back for weeks, and you could have FF-cared less. Not a great talent, BUT he’s going to get RB1 touches…that’s worth something. He’ll probably be an RB2-3 with them, but he has some kind of RB1 hope off the touches.
4) WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (C)
He’s becoming an excellent receiver right before our very eyes. He flashed it in the 2019 preseason, but I didn’t think he’d get enough of a push or be athletic enough for higher FF success.
Whatever the value of being a great technical receiver is…that’s Meyers, who has been an ace for PPR the last few weeks.
5) WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (C-)
I think he’s going to the Eagles/Wentz’s #1 WR from here on in…and he’s built for big plays, and thus some sweet FF numbers with it. I’d get more excited, but Carson Wentz is an iffy/drag on this a bit, and if Wentz gets replaced in a week or two…then Reagor is in some trouble/unknown for targeting.
6) RB Cam Akers, LAR (D)
Not a fan of the RB, per se…and I hate this RBBC situation. I only mention here that if you get him now and he has a game with like 12 carries, 62 yards AND scores a TD – people will lose their minds and you can trade it (if trading still going in your league). People love this rookie name.
7) PK Rodrigo Blankenship, IND (D-)
*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important the waiver move is in context.
Excellent kicking conditions ahead for a kicker who has been in and out of the top 5 PK’s for PPG scored. His schedule ahead:
Week 11 = home/dome
Week 12 = home/dome
Week 13 = at HOU/dome
Week 14 = at LV/dome
Week 15 = home/dome
Then a bad Week 16…at Pittsburgh.
8) PK Brandon McManus, DEN (D-)
Looking for a sneaky scoring boost hope? Kickers kicking in Denver with altitude have a better chance to hit 50+ yard, and McManus (who is a very solid kicker) has back-to-back home games Weeks 11-12.
Five Waivers To Distrust…
1) WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB
Another winning week from MVS…two in-a-row. These are Allen Lazard’s games, and he’s coming to get them when he gets activated Week 11.
2) WR Keelan Cole, JAX
A receiving TD and a punt return TD…two TDs. That’s great!! But nothing ever lasts with the Jacksonville passing game. Cole is talented, but you know next week he’ll be back to 1-2 catches for 15 yards…sadly.
3) RB Malcolm Brown, LAR
Two TDs Week 10…so that’s something, right? It is ‘something’. Add him to the pile of RBs getting +/- 10 touches and you hope they might score a TD to make it worth your FF-while. Darrell Henderson is their ‘starter’, and now rookie Cam Akers is stealing more time. Brown is part of an RBBC-trio. I don’t care that he scored two TDs last game.
There is a TD hope week-to-week here, but no huge upside hope week-to-week.
4) WR Michael Pittman, IND
I’m a fan, and he might be the Colts’ new #1 WR. I’m pretty sure he is. BUT the Colts’ #1 WR has meant jack squat for consistency this season…as Philip Rivers is not good, and the Colts work a WRBC group that you never know who will get the touches week-to-week. Could be Marcus Johnson or T.Y. Hilton or Zach Pascal next week.
On top of the WR committee and Rivers’ issues…Pittman will start to draw top opposing coverage now that he’s established himself as the new top dog. Jaire Alexander next week. Bradley Roby Week 13 and 15. The Steelers Week 16. A lot of tough matchups ahead for a rookie lead dog by attrition.
5) RB Nyheim Hines, IND
You might be RB-desperate enough to have to go here, and I get it…but Hines never has any consistency. He has a nice FF week and then never follows up. The week prior, he was a ghost vs. BAL. He’s usually going to get you 3-7 carries, 3-5 catches, less than 50-60 yards, and no TD…you’re hope is he scores a TD. There’s like 15 RBs on waivers that will see 5-10 touches, and you hope scores a TD.
I never see consistency with Hines, so I don’t want to buy into it…unless I’m desperate…and it’s going to be so costly this week.
Five Buy Low Players…
*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*
1) WR D.K. Metcalf, SEA
Metcalf is starting to quiet down a bit. A two-catch game twice on his last 4 games, also less than 25 yards in two of those 4 games. I’m not saying anyone is panic selling, but I am saying this is the prize WR in fantasy, outside of Tyreek and Davante. Anytime there is a dip in the price, the owner’s defenses lowered, the owner frustrated – it’s a good time to at least knock on the door in some way.
Remember, YOU think Metcalf is holy because you only see the amazing things. When you own the player, you see the flaws first and foremost. Assume the current owner is seeing the flaws a little bit.
Trade Valuation? WR1. You’re not getting any radical discount, but I’m just saying the door is open for a top 10 fantasy asset. Maybe you have inflated things to deal away to pull it off…if you believe…
2) WR Keenan Allen, LAC
Allen has been working great Justin Herbert, but he did just have a 3 catch for 39 yards game…but had a TD. It’s like a different D.K. Metcalf situation…you’re not getting a screaming deal, but this is a top 12 type overall FF PPR asset in 2020 working with Herbert…if you can sneak your way into it…
Trade Valuation? WR1, but back-end…like great but seen to be on a hot streak…and maybe the owner is so hyped needing a running back that they’ll lay down the Keenan card with perceived WR depth to satisfy the desire for a running back, as fantasy owners usually do.
3) RB Aaron Jones, GB
Two games in a row without a TD and missed a game with injury, so actually it is three weeks in-a-row. No 100+ yard rushing games since Week 2. The current owner is not getting what they signed up for. Also, the schedule ahead is bad on paper. Perhaps, you can catch a current owner in a fit of rage and their defenses down to make a move for one of the top producing FF RBs in the game, albeit lesser than he used to be…but still, in today’s market, he’s as good as can be acquired (you ain’t acquiring Dalvin Cook).
Trade Valuation? RB1, back-end…if you have the asset the current owner needs, and a throw in RB of the moment. I’m not saying it will be easy or do-able, but just the window is opening a bit.
4) WR Kenny Golladay, DET *DYNASTY*
Basically, a lost season. Hurt for most of it. If you’re building for 2021+, Golladay is one of the top WR talents in the game, and on-sale because he’s not been playing and probably won’t for the rest of the season IF Detroit falls out of the race. But he might be able to get back and have current value.
Trade Valuation? High-end WR2…looking to take on the pain of a lost season, you get a discount. Or…you walk away.
5) Jonathan Taylor, IND *DYNASTY*
If you believe that the Colts will eventually build the run game around Taylor in 2021+, now is the time to get in…current owner’s frustrations are high.
If you think he’ll be in an RBBC forever with Frank Reich, which is possible, then pass. Plenty of other RBs out there.
Trade Valuation? RB2…you want to catch the owner in frustration. They’ll probably not want to sell low because of sunk dynasty rookie draft costs, but you never know the frustration level.
5) RB Chase Edmonds, ARI *DYNASTY*
Kenyan Drake back…drags down Edmonds’ value. Edmonds having one solo start that was ‘meh’ for FF…that drags his value down. He’s seen as a random, talented backup – but I see the potential starter for the Arizona Cardinals in 2021. Drake is a 2021 free agent, and not worth the cost to bring back.
Worst case, you buy a talented backup who plays RB3 ball as a backup. But best case, you got a RB1 threat for 2021.
Trade Valuation? RB3…he’s now less exciting then the Zack Moss and Cam Akers crowd. You could deal Moss or Akers for Edmonds + ___ now for Dynasty.
6) RB Raheem Mostert, SF
BYE Week 11, then he should be back Week 12…and I think he’s looked like a top 3 NFL back when he’s played. He goes back in as a starter, but with some worries that the 49ers are out of the race and don’t go full scale Mostert the rest of the way. It’s a risk-reward that you can buy a player long forgotten for being hurt most of 2020.
This is a buy for people for sure in the playoffs making moves to solidify the title run, but it comes with the obvious risks.
Trade Valuation? RB2…you’re taking the BYE week, you don’t know if he’ll be ready Week 12. You are taking on risk, so don’t pay a lot for this…for something the current owner hates for disappointing him.
Five Sell High Players…
*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or values thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*
1) QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
No player is getting the hype Tua is. Every simple pass he makes is blown up into something god-like. You could maybe sell Tua + ___ to get into Josh Allen or Justin Herbert even, in dynasty/long-term view. You think Tua is ‘meh’, but I heard the TV analyst for this game tell the world Tua was better than Herbert or Burrow, because he just completed a no-read misdirection rollout 8-yard pass. Those people exist…go find them to trade with.
Sell Valuation? QB1…close to Herbert, Burrow, Josh Allen value, you hope.
2) RB Nyheim Hines, IND
Had a great game on cable television…time to leverage it for all it’s worth.
Sell Valuation? RB2…two good games last 3 weeks, big night on TNF, people RB desperate…don’t sell it cheap.
3) RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA
UDFA rookie that is the lead for Miami, but when Myles Gaskin returns…I think Ahmed disappears. I don’t believe Ahmed becomes the lead the rest of the way…but it’s not out of the question if Gaskin is hurt worse than we know. But even then…it’s an RB2 production spot.
Sell Valuation? RB2, a quick flip to the desperate…or just keep and ride out.
4) RB Zack Moss, BUF
You missed your window the last two weeks, now he’s half as valuable…but still coveted by some because they’ve been told to. If they look at his last few games, they’d see 3 TDs…and maybe they get a tingle.
Sell Valuation? RB2 in redraft, RB1.5-like in dynasty.
5) RB Cam Akers, LAR
He’s the next rookie excitement back that’s going to get early adopters wanting to buy in now. Led the Rams in carries Week 10…so now ‘starter’ words will be tossed around. But, he’ll be a part of an RB-trio and be about useless for redraft the rest of the way. If you can catch someone getting RB rookie excited here.
Sell Valuation? RB2…if you can find the rookie-lover willing to pay here. RB1.5 in dynasty.
Five Deep Sleeper Waivers Pickups…
*Total flyer/lowly owned or not-owned players
1) TE Taysom Hill, NO
IF…Drew Brees is out. IF…Taysom Hill qualifies as a TE. IF…your league platform doesn’t change him to QB only for this one week – then you could get a TE playing QB and being THE #1 TE scorer for FF Week 11, a huge opportunity…or a big egg.
You also have to hope that Hill plays over Winston…or plays a lot of snaps at QB, despite Winston starting, in-and-out of the game because of Winston’s failings.
3) TE Jordan Reed, SF
We’re mostly all TE desperate, and I thought Reed was looking very spry Week 10, where he looked rusty returning Week 9. He’s my new favorite sit and watch and see 2nd-TE…maybe has to be my #1 TE in some places…it’s that bad out there.
2) WR Rashard Higgins, CLE
Just looks like the Baker’s #1 look among the WRs. Like a Travis Fulgham or Jakobi Meyers-lite type hope.
4) WR Cam Sims, WSH
Had a season high 4 catches and season high 5 targets in Week 10, as a follow up to his breakout Week 9. Not a big yardage game Week 10 (54 yards) but signs that he is going to work/has some upside as a #2 look in Washington.
5) QB Jalen Hurts, PHI
If you want to try and gamble on Carson Wentz getting benched if they fall behind any NFC East team in wins with another loss in Week 11…now is the time to get in early.
-- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS --
1) RB Jordan Howard, MIA
Was inactive Week 10…that says it all.
2) TE Jordan Akins, HOU
Akins had a shot to seize this starting role and was making some FF noise early, and he started to, but then he got hurt and derailed and now he’s just a bit player for Romeo Crennel. I’m not giving up on Akins’ talent and possible uprising for a good week or two ahead, but I’m no longer holding onto it strong to see/wait/hope.
3) RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA
After two decent weeks, Dallas was benched for Alex Collins, who was out of football for a year…that tells you all you need to know.
4) RB JaMycal Hasty, SF
Can’t get looks the past two weeks, and now broke his collarbone. Going to drop his dynasty outlook as well.
5) RB David Johnson, HOU
Will be out at least Weeks 11 and 12 and could return to face IND-CHI-IND Weeks 13-15. You don’t have to hold on if you can’t put on I.R. He’s not nothing but he’s not so good in redraft you have to hold off on investing in all the other RB hopes popping up that you might could catch a ride on.
-- STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS --
This has moved beyond just a good pairing with KC…now Miami is trying to be a real DST1, and you saw that the way they handled the Rams offense Week 8. Arizona scored on them, but Miami also got a D TD in there too. Against a great Chargers passing game, they held their own as best as you could expect vs. Herbert…gave Herbert the toughest time I’ve seen so far this season.
If they are available in your league, and you haven’t picked them up already after what I’ve written for the last 7 weeks about them…then I’m not sure why I’m even typing this, but they’re nationally owned less than 50% so they qualify for me to talk about here, I guess…
Week 11 = at DEN…I want in on this
Week 12 = at NYJ…I also want in on this.
Week 13 = v. CIN…I could do this depending. I fear Burrow but his O-Line is so rough that DST/FF pts can ensue.
Week 14 = v. KC…no, thanks
Week 15= v. NE…this should be really good too
Week 16 = at LV…maybe.
Three strong starts the next 6 weeks, maybe four of them.
This is for those planning ahead for the FF playoffs…and despite the fact that Seattle has a horrific pass defense in general (but they’ve played a lot of great QBs to pour gasoline on the fire). Week 10 v. the Rams…they started to show some signs of improvement.
Week 12 = at PHI
Week 13 = NYG
Week 14 = NYJ
Week 15 = at WSH
This defense is sneaky good, they’ve just played some good offenses of late. There’s an opportunity Weeks 12-16…
Week 12 = at NE
Week 13 = v. LAR (not good, but not the worst)
Week 14 = at NYG
Week 15 = PHI
Week 16 = SF
Four possible DST starts in this five week stretch.
People dropped because they faced Seattle Week 10 with Tampa Bay next/Week 11. The Rams have a nice opportunity ahead, mostly, Weeks 12-15…
Week 12 = SF
Week 13 = at ARI (all good but this one)
Week 14 = NE
Week 15 = at NYJ
It’s a Week 11 play vs. NYJ, especially good for Joey Bosa and Chris Harris are back. Week 13 vs. NE could be useful if Bosa and Harris are there. Week 16 v. DEN could work too.
This is a long shot DST we’ve been monitoring for weeks. They’ve held four of their last 6 opponents to 21 points or fewer in a game. It’s not the worst defense ever. It has a good offense supporting it. They smacked around SF Week 9 and handled JAX Week 10 well despite missing key CBs.
Week 11 = at IND with turnover prone Rivers.
Week 12 = vs. Foles/CHI
Week 13 = vs. PHI with their bad O-Line.
Week 14 = at DET, not a bad matchup.
You could start with some low-level confidence the next five weeks.
They’ve seen their defensive numbers improve…because they’ve played in bad weather games to help suppress offense in general. But they aren’t a terrible defense, just not all that great/optimal. The schedule is what has some low-level opportunity…
Week 11 = v. PHI
Week 12 = at JAX
Week 13 = at TEN
Week 14 = BAL
Week 15 = at NYG
Week 16 = at NYJ
Several good matchups in here and especially that Week’s 15-16 stretch.
Could have been dropped last week or will be this week (BYE Week 11). Week 12 at GB is bad, but then Weeks 13-16 could be solid again…
Week 13 = v. DET
Week 14 = v. HOU
Week 15 = at MIN
Week 16 = at JAX
Could be decent…and Weeks 13-14 is facing two dome teams in Chicago, where weather could be a factor.
They have decent personnel on defense, and they are getting a bit better/healthier each week. Three game win streak holding two of their last 3 opponents to 12 or fewer points.
Your interest here would be Weeks 13…and maybe 14.
Week 13 = at NYJ
Week 14 = IND (maybe)
This DST is getting erratic, and they’re losing games/losing motivations. I’m only excited to use them if Joe Burrow is out for Week 11…or I’ll use Week 12 if they win Week 11 to stay in the NFC East race.
Week 11 = CIN (not awful)
Week 12 = at DAL (nice-ish)
It’s a risky proposition, but this elite pass rush makes them a threat just about every week.
-- Sleeper/lesser-name IDP’s whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --
1) LB Alex Singleton, PHI
Really been on fire the past four games…9.8 total tackles per game. What’s changed? He’s become a starter the past four games for Philly.
2) SAF Kamren Curl, WSH
Second start in a row for Curl, and he’s averaged 9.5 total tackles, 1.0 sacks per game in his two starts.
3) LB A.J. Klein, BUF
With Matt Milano out, Klein has averaged 6.4 total tackles, 0.7 sacks per game in his past five games. Teams are running at Buffalo and that’s good for the LBs for IDP tallies.
4) SAF Kyle Dugger, NE
Dugger started playing more Weeks 5 and 7 but missed games in-between and barely played Week 9 v. NYJ. But in Week 10 he played more and led the team in tackles – 12 total tackles, in the rain on SNF.
Dugger is a talent, and if he’s going to be a starter now…he could be a sleeper DB1 threat ahead.
5) SAF Khari Willis, IND
On fire of late. Been a starter all season, but his numbers have popped the past 4 games…8.5 total tackles per game in that recent stretch.
6) SAF D.J. Reed, SEA
Picked up by Seattle a few weeks ago and elevated to the roster and now playing heavy snaps due to all the Seahawks injuries in the secondary. The last three weeks, Reed has played his first games of 2020…and in that span he has averaged 7.3 total tackles, 0.67 PDs per game with a pick in Week 10. I don’t know if he keeps playing heavy snaps, but when he does…it’s working for IDP.
Here’s Nick Foles speaking for 30 minutes at a church/youth meeting a few months after the Super Bowl…talking about some of the inside stuff on his crazy football life and sharing his personal testimony. If you want to hear some good news in these crazy days and root for a good dude tonight, listen to the surreal tale of the 2018 Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles’s story from his own mouth… https://youtu.be/HK6HeMdv-bo