2020 Week 11: Three Things from Sunday Games + Top 5’s Waivers/Buy-Sell/Sleepers/DST/IDPs
And down the stretch we go…
It’s shaping up to be a very positive week in FFM-land. A lot of stable/solid performances across the board/lineups allowed many to push past their opponents, who were finally the ones having several dud performers. We, by and large, ‘muscled’ our way through this week with depth and solid output up-and-down the lineup – and several Taysom Hill at TE ‘crush’ events occurred.
We’re tracking a 65-67%+ win rate across all league types with a chance at 70%+ if things go well on MNF (most hinging on TB-DST, AB, RoJo, D. Henderson), and with little downside from risk going into tonight…again, on average/by and large.
After 11 weeks, the average record for an FFM team in Redraft, Dynasty, Best Ball is 6.5 wins/3.5 losses. After a slow start, things have turned the last 5-6 games…as we thought they would, and really starting to turn the last 3-4 weeks.
We track several diverse league types to have a temperature gage on things, but I can usually tell just by the emails I get, or conversations people have with me out and about. The frustration conversations are dropping off. The “I got lucky to win because ____” is increasing.
But most pleasantly, the conversations of late (last 3 weeks) have started turning towards – I thought my season was over, but I’ve won 2-3-4 in a row and suddenly I’m in the playoff race. Many thought to be dead teams are rising to life, almost by accident.
It’s not an accident. Things happened early…to many FFM-based teams – injuries right away, and the Fournette trade, etc. It took time to adjust, picking up (waivers or early trade) the Herbert’s and Claypool’s way before they became national things, etc., as we went. Making a slick trade here or there. Getting a great temp RB pickup thru waivers. Kyler rising. Josh Allen emerging. Diontae not getting hurt lately. Good DST and PK play – it wasn’t an accident. It was chess, not checkers. It just took some time…more than we wanted, but it’s happening. Teams are starting to hit their stride at just the right time.
If you have two games to go and you need to win out to make the playoffs – two wins in a row is not some herculean task. If you’ve made an improbable run to get back in the playoff race, but still have work to do – count it all joy. It’s a game, and you’re still at the poker table…you haven’t been asked to leave yet. Go down swinging.
Other FFMers are starting to ride high, knowing you’re in the playoffs, trying to lock up 1st-round byes – don’t breathe a sigh for too long. It’s going to take the right DSTs, PKs, one more golden waiver wire grab, etc., to try and close the deal in the playoffs. Stay vigilant and diligent.
It’s exciting to see so many hot streaks and playoff teams, and those who are discovering they are still in the race despite it looking all but dead 3-4 weeks ago. It’s a game of 13-14-15 weeks of play to try to get into the playoffs. Take it to the end. Go down swinging, and have a good time doing it. It’s nice when fantasy is fun/meaningful. Enjoy it in this weird, upside world we are living in!
If you’ve got a winning record/already are in the playoffs…I don’t need to keep your spirits up. You know what to do. I’m working all Thanksgiving week to help!
Those of you who thought your season was done 4-5 weeks ago, you went numb, paralyzed by the stupid rough start to the season…but you stuck with it or even starting winning on accident (I could tell you some stories of teams trying to tank who’ve won 1-2-3 games in-a-row with 2-3 blank players in the lineup in recent weeks) and now you’ve snuck back into the playoffs – the season was never over, you were never paralyzed…you just thought you were. But now, fly free knowing you’ve got a chance to make a run. It was all in your head…get out of your own head.
How many of your fantasy season’s feel like this two minute roller coaster ride?: https://youtu.be/Yg0t7Pa6H10
-- THREE THINGS ON EACH SUNDAY GAME (thoughts subject to change as I rewatch games all week) --
-- That was one of the most miserable games I’ve seen by a QB, in a big/must-win/must-shut-up-the-critics games I’ve seen this season – given to us by Carson Wentz (21-35 for 235 yards, 2 TDs/2 INT, 3-10-0). Every play seems painful to watch with him in 2020…even the good ones. It’s a grind for anything positive to happen.
One of two things may happen this week…Wentz starts again, or Doug Pederson is let go and Jalen Hurts (1-6-0) becomes the starter. I suspect Wentz/Pederson stays because they have too much money into Wentz. They are stuck with Wentz until 2022, unless they can get Frank Reich to take a big (financial) bite in the offseason.
If Hurts gets in…it will be the Taysom Hill/Lamar Jackson hybrid offense. Doug Pederson has shown no interest in Hurts as a passer this season, so I’m not sure he’d even be ready…but all rookies blow through the NFL if they have a modicum of talent.
-- Nick Chubb (20-114-0) looks terrific…but it’s another game without even a target, much less a catch AND you see Kareem Hunt (13-11-1, 1-10-0/1) working more goal line/red zone. The touch situations, and some lack thereof, are undercutting a strong RB1 talent to an RB1.5-2 PPR projection week-to-week.
-- What did look good here…Wentz-to-Dallas Goedert (5-77-1/6). I mentioned how good it looked prior week, more of it here. Just as we get excited…I’m sure Zach Ertz will return next week and ruin everything.
-- And so it begins… Taysom Hill (18-23 for 233 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 10-51-2) had almost exactly the game you’d expect, for FF results. But honestly it was much more traditional QB play than I expected, and Hill looked great as a passer after he got past 1st-quarter anxiousness.
It helps that he faced the Falcons secondary. At Denver next week, could be a minor wake up call.
-- Michael Thomas (9-104-0/12) came alive with Taysom, I assume that holds up for Hill’s QB run…ebbing and flowing depending upon the strength of the secondary faced.
Alvin Kamara (13-45-1, 0-0-0/1) with no catches, I’m going to guess that is a week-to-week risk under Taysom too…that the catch counts will be lower, not always zero. Hill showed no inclination for the bailout toss to the RB and running QBs don’t tend to work RBs as heavily in the passing game…not as much as you’d like for your FF RB. We could be jumping to a bad conclusion based on just one game, but I think the issue/concern is on the table.
-- I thought the Falcons-DST would rise up some here and get the season turned…instead it was the Saints that had another strong performance. All the Falcons weapons stunk from Ryan to Gurley to Julio to Hurst…it was one part the Saints D playing well and one part a soft Falcons team that rolls over at the first sign of trouble/must win situations. An embarrassing display.
-- The domino effect of Joe Burrow’s (22-34 for 203 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 2-12-0) injury is FF devastating.
Tee Higgins (3-26-0/10) is hurt the most – he doesn’t get open well. He’s a tight window worker exceling with a great QB. Not any more… In redraft, you’ll likely keep him on the bench next week and possibly be dropping the following. We’ll see.
Tyler Boyd (9-85-0/11) drops from WR1 hopeful each week (in PPR) to more-likely WR2.5-3.0 week-to-week.
-- The run game, failing as it was, gets hurt further. It will be a Gio Bernard (9-18-0, 4-37-0/5) lead but more games like this…50 +/- yards, 3-4 catches, lack of TDs. Joe Mixon would not be exciting either…he may stay out the rest of the year now.
-- When Washington gets a lead early, this is what will happen to J.D. McKissic (6-43-0, 3-26-0/4)…less targets, less snaps, Antonio Gibson (16-94-1, 1-10-0/2) pounding away the clock trying to play ‘four corners’ to run the lead out. Could be some risk of this at Dallas next week.
-- How Matt Patricia keeps his job after this, after his awful years in Detroit…is beyond me. This shutout is embarrassing. Carolina has an emerging defense but missing their top CB here and playing without their normal QB…and Detroit gets thumped. I’m not ready to trust the CAR-DST just yet…it’s more on how bad Detroit is.
-- This is four of his last 5 games with a TD for Curtis Samuel (8-70-1/10, 1-4-0). What he didn’t do, was carry the ball 4-5+ times as I thought he might. He worked more WR action and was the workhorse again of the trio.
-- Kerryon Johnson (6-17-0, 2-21-0/5) was my ‘gut feeling’ player of the week…and that was a punch to the gut. He was in the game a good amount, once the game was getting out of hand and Stafford missthrew (what should’ve been easy) screens/dumps to him on his three misconnections. It was just a sad performance all-around for Detroit. Kerryon is a ghost again with D’Andre Swift back Week 12.
-- Diontae Johnson (12-111-0/16) is going into mini-Davante mode again. 10+ targets in four of his last 5 games. The one outlier is where he was shut down by Jimmy Smith/BAL.
…Week 12, Diontae faces Jimmy Smith Thanksgiving night.
-- Jake Luton (16-37 for 151 yards, 0 TD/4 INTs) had a nightmare game, but you can blame the Steelers defense and how terrible the Jags overall offense/team is more than any Luton issue.
-- I named Bennie Snell (7-15-1) as an outta nowhere RB this week. I’m not mentioning him here to celebrate the TD he had. I’m just noting…he’s terrible, FYI. He’s a chore to watch run the ball. He’s in a spot to be a starter for free agent James Conner next season, but I cannot believe it will really happen…because he’s so godawful.
-- This was a moment where the MVP version of Lamar Jackson (17-29 for 186 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 13-51-0) needed to show up. He didn’t. Another miserable grind watching Lamar play. Not terrible…just not exciting at all. Taysom Hill played with more effectiveness and energy.
The Titans defense is as bad as it gets…and they were missing at least 3 starters, and still Lamar couldn’t come through big. The towel…is thrown into the ring for him as a top 5 FF QB this season…a turn is not coming.
-- I need to rewatch it, but Dez Bryant (4-28-0/50 looked terrific, considering his time away…better-looking (athletically/movement) then Gronk or AB upon their returns. I’m not making fun anymore. Not really chasing for FF either, because of Lamar…but no more jokes about this comeback.
-- It looked like the Ravens are giving into J.K. Dobbins (15-70-1, 2-15-0/2) as the lead, finally. Head fake on it last week…reality on it this week. They have no reason to turn away now…their season is dying, it’s time for an infusion of ‘change’.
Mark Ingram had 2 carries, Gus Edwards 3 carries.
-- The FF numbers were just ‘OK’, but I want to mention…Damien Harris (11-43-1, 1-11-0/2) looked terrific running the ball. Like one of the better RBs in the league ‘good’. Like, arguably better than Josh Jacobs ‘good’ (you know why I say that…).
-- Jordan Akins (5-83-0/6) looked good too…now that I finally gave up on him in many places last week. I’m just happy that I don’t feel like too much of a fool for backing him for weeks. His output dipped because he got hurt. He would’ve been a TE1 this season, in a season of TE trouble, had he stayed healthy and kept his early season momentum going. He really played well this game…and he was just short on/for at least one TD in this game.
-- You gotta respect the #1 corners from this game…
Bradley Roby helped hold down Jakobi Meyers (3-38-0/3) to his worst game since his breakout the past few weeks.
Stephon Gilmore returned from missing a few games with injury and Will Fuller (6-80-0/8) had a quiet/decent game. No big plays or TDs.
-- That was a terrible performance by Tua Tagovailoa (11-20 for 83 yards, 1 TD/0 INT), and he left the game 4th-quarter with a hit he got twisted up on late…but it looked like the hook might have been coming anyway. The Dolphins have an offense installed as if they were protecting a 4th-string QB from hurting the team…and they have it for Tua, because he’s not a top NFL QB; because of his obvious (not to the mainstream) limitations. A hoax is perpetrated by the entire NFL intelligentsia.
It’s not that they know better and are just lying/evil…it’s just they just have no clue at what they are looking at, and are just running with a narrative they think makes them sound smart that everyone agrees with, politely.
Tua is not a great QB prospect…solid at best.
-- Salvon Ahmed (12-43-0, 5-31-0/6) got the start and main workload, maybe for the last time…assuming Myles Gaskin is back next week. It will probably be a Gaskin/Ahmed 80/20 split. Neither should be starting in the NFL.
-- Drew Lock was trying to throw the ball away to let the clock run to 0:00 when he chucked a long bomb on the last play of the game, but Tim Patrick (5-119-0/8) actually kept sprinting after it and caught up to it for a 61 yard play…or he would have had an FF dud.
-- Kalen Ballage (16-44-0, 7-27-0/9) limped out of this game late…there might be a Josh Kelley (4-0-0, 2-4-0/2) or Troymaine Pope (3-4-0, 2-12-0/2) opportunity this week…and it might be longer than a week. We’ll have to see what the report is on Ballage.
-- LaMical Perine (8-33-1, 0-0-0/1) got hurt in this game and Frank Gore took over, but we also saw Ty Johnson (4-17-0/6) as a 3rd-down back. I’m not sure how bad Perine is yet, but this might be another RB spot opening up (again).
-- The Chargers-DST got a pick-six early, but other than that they played a pretty crappy game considering the Jets scored 28 points and had chances late to win. The Chargers have to be the worst coached team in football, with no contender for the honor in sight.
-- Jason Katz’s favorite RB Jonathan Taylor (22-90-0, 4-24-0/4) had the game I was speculating that he might, because of the strategy to play vs. Green Bay -- the control the Packers offense with a physical run game event to keep the ball away from Aaron Rodgers. He did.
Before you get too excited… After Week 2, Taylor was a no-brainer RB1 for the ROS…or so we all thought. A few weeks ago, people were dying for Jordan Wilkins (4-21-0, -15-0/1). After last week, Nyheim Hines (6-2-0, 3-31-0/4) was all the rage. Now, we’re back full circle to JT. Don’t get too comfortable…Taylor is as likely to have 5 carries as 15 next week. It’s game situation dependent with Frank Reich.
But this game helped prove my point of the past few weeks – Taylor needs to be in and playing/carrying the ball and wearing down defenses…not running in out every play in a rotation.
Taylor is an Ezekiel Elliott (or Arian Foster) for a team that doesn’t want one.
-- I want to get more excited about Michael Pittman (3-66-1/3), but you see the stats…he’s the best WR they have, but it’s like with their RBs – Rivers has no pattern or lean on who he throws to, which is smart…but sucks for FF projecting.
-- Like I want to get excited about Allen Lazard (2-18-0/4) but I need to see Aaron Rodgers willing to make him a thing, not just a 3-6 target per game, random TD event. Lazard had a TD this game…called back with a penalty.
-- It wasn’t great, but it was good enough…Ezekiel Elliott (21-103-0, 2-11-1/2) looked fresh off a bye and had a solid game. He IS the offense, so you really can’t FF-bench him with amazing other options. A lot of people traded for/away him this week out of frustration. There’s only a few RBs left who are EVERYTHING to their teams…Zeke is one of them.
-- Dalvin Cook (27-115-1, 5-45-0/5) is also ‘holy’ at RB. He is THEE offense and looks fantastic every week. He looks faster than ever and takes all these hits and never gets up slow or asks to come off the field. Tip of the cap to him. He and Christian McCaffery will fight for the #1 overall ranked player in all of fantasy.
And I will be with Patrick Mahomes for that honor, with the QBs, as usual.
-- After another slow start to a season, since Week 3, Kirk Cousins (22-30 for 314 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) ahs thrown for 18 TDs in his past 8 games…2.3 pass TDs per game…that is elite level TD passing. For the season, he has 20 TDs in 10 games…2.0 per game…that’s also up there with the top 10 QBs.
Cousins did this last season as well – weak first few games and then went MVP candidate for a long while. When do we finally embrace Cousins as really good? He’s stolen the Ryan Tannehill ‘always disrespected fantasy QB while scoring nice in front of our eyes but we don’t see it’ title.
-- It’s about time to have a tough talk with yourself, for some… Le’Veon Bell (7-25-1, 1-11-0/1) is near useless for FF. He’s just a handcuff for CEH (14-69-2, 1-8-0/2). How long are you going to hold on to him? Waiting for a CEH injury is an acceptable reason to hold, but other than that…there is no hope here.
At the end of the game, the important final drive…Darrell Williams (3-22-0/3) was on the field the entire time. He is more trusted in the passing game than Bell.
-- Devontae Booker (5-16-0, 1-3-0/1) is a better FF producer and NFL player right now, than Le’Veon – that’s how far we’ve fallen. I’d be more excited about Booker for FF, if Jacobs were out…then I would Bell if CEH were out. Yet, Bell is much more owned than Booker universally.
-- Derek Carr (23-31 for 275 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) has 19 TDs/3 INTs total this season, and 2.0 passing TDs per game since Week 2. The FF stumbling block is…he’s been under 170 yards passing in three of his last 4 games. Like Mike Zimmer, when LV gets ahead Jon Gruden tries to run it out with little/no passing game. Carr’s been fantastic vs. LV, for FF, and just solid against everyone else.
===== FIVE PLAYERS… =====
**NOTE: Tuesday Night Waiver Madness Video Q&A 8:00-9:30pmET, where we will go over more of all these things (below) every Tuesday night**
FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST…
*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.
**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me.
***FAAB % mentioned at any time below is based on a 17-20 man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.
…not much to get excited about this week.
1) TE Robert Tonyan, GB (D+)
In a weak week for waiver options, pre-MNF, the most valuable things might be the TEs – because many are dying/searching at TE.
Tonyan works a ton of snaps as a starter with Aaron Rodgers…that’s a good thing. His ownership slipped the last few weeks with no TDs being posted. It will jump this week off a solid game with a TD.
2) QB Derek Carr (D)
You need a QB for Week 12? Carr at ATL…it’s potentially a good spot because ATL stops the run but gets killed through the air. Perfect for Carr to have a solid week and Gruden not be able to just run the clock on ATL. Week 13 at NYJ might be favorable too!
3) TE Jordan Reed (D)
Looked great returning from injury the past two games, but he isn’t a heavy snap starter…plus many of the good SF weapons are returning Week 12, which could hurt…or help a bit. He’s look good…we’ll have to see if it translates to FF numbers…
4) WR Allen Lazard (D)
He could become a solid WR2-3/Flex WR…but there are a lot of those out there. What I like here is (besides the talent) is for the owner who has Davante Adams, Lazard is one of the only handcuff WRs that makes any sense. If Adams goes down, Lazard could be a WR1 in an instant.
5) RB Frank Gore, NYJ (D)
Do you need a living, breathing RB? One who will see 15+ touches in a game, but might not top 50+ yards BUT has hope for a TD? Here you go. ONLY if Perine is going to be out.
6) TE Will Dissly, SEA (D)
Prior to 2020, Dissly played 8 games with 50%+ snaps played and scored 5 TDs in those 8 games. He was rolling as a TE1 last year before his second knee injury two years in a row. With Greg Olsen gone, Dissly may be ready to rise again.
a) How athletic is he after two major leg injuries? He has done little this season, but is playing more and more snaps.
b) Jacob Hollister lurks, taking some snaps and touches.
7) PK Rodrigo Blankenship, IND (D-) *Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important the waiver move is in context.
Excellent kicking conditions ahead for a kicker who has been in and out of the top 5 PK’s for PPG scored. His schedule ahead:
Week 12 = home/dome
Week 13 = at HOU/dome
Week 14 = at LV/dome
Week 15 = home/dome
Then a bad Week 16…at Pittsburgh.
FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST…
1) WR Tim Patrick, DEN
A 100+ yard game, but 60 of it came when Drew Lock tried to throw the ball so far down the field that the final seconds of the game ticked off harmlessly…but, miraculously, Patrick chased after it and caught it. It wasn't real, but it counted for output. Drew Lock is terrible, and NO-KC-CAR-BUF-LAC are all bad matchups ahead.
2) TE Trey Burton, IND
Caught a TD pass but is really not a big factor in this offense for several weeks, and when they tried to get him going…he was weak/he’s lost his fastball. No interest here.
3) WR Michael Pittman, IND
LOVE Pittman but hate this situation. I don’t like Rivers and the way he’s spreading things around. It’s too unpredictable. Pittman had 3 targets Week 11 but scored a sweet TD. Decent matchup with TEN Week 12, and then tougher matchups the ROS from there. I want to like him, but I can’t get attached to Indy things unless I’m desperate.
4) RB Sony Michel
This is Damien Harris’s backfield now. Michel can only be a bit player in it.
5) Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
Sweet 8 catch game, but I see no excitement ahead here. He’s usually 2-4 catches, 20-50 yards, and hasn’t scored a TD all season. Great Hall of Fame player, but not great for FF upside in 2020.
FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS…
*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*
-- Trade deadlines are mostly past, but some have open trading still. Going to start focusing more and more on Dynasty trades down the stretch.
1) QB Josh Allen, BUF *Redraft+Dynasty*
Elite QBs for FF are: Mahomes, Kyler, Herbert…then maybe Russ. Josh Allen is in this top 5, and could be argued anywhere from #2 to #4, I think. You cannot reasonably trade for the other guys, but people still see Allen as ‘lucky’ or ‘like a Carson Wentz hot moment’ type thing. Point is – people are getting deals, that they shouldn’t, on him. We like that.
For the future, if you want/need an elite QB at the top of your lineup…he’s mostly available.
Trade Valuation? Top 10-12 QB. Find the owner who doesn’t get what they have here. To me, only Mahomes and Herbert are playing the position better. Kyler built to be an FF-god, but Allen is a better pure QB at this moment. Point is…Allen is ‘up there’ with the elites but he’s acquirable less than that.
2) RB Alvin Kamara, NO *Redraft+Dynasty*
I’m just noting…Drew Brees out, people fearing life without Brees for AK. Well, they are faced with it now…and in 2021 and beyond. After his no catch game, there’s some panic happening.
You may want to see another week of low catches to really stir the pot, but that would also be a risk that he gets back to normal Week 12. I think AK will be fine now and later/2021, the center of the offense. I’ll buy if someone is panicked now after Week 11.
Trade Valuation? RB1 for sure, but not the #1-2 overall…more the back-end RB1…that’s what you’re looking for to get ‘a deal’. If the current owner is more afraid of trading him than keeping him…just walk. You’re looking for deals only.
3) RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR *DYNASTY*
If word hits that he’s not playing Week 12…all the missed games are wearing on his current owners. Perhaps you have FF pieces they need for their title, and you’re starting to build for the future. CMC with Matt Rhule…it will be good in 2021+.
Trade Valuation? RB1, and you’re paying a strong price…but this is more that he’s available due to his unavailability now. Usually, you can’t acquire him.
4) RB Chase Edmonds, ARI *DYNASTY*
My gamble that Edmonds is the Arizona lead in 2021, and that Drake leaves via free agency…but it’s always possible Drake is resigned, but not a given.
Trade Valuation? RB3…he lost his value when Drake returned. This is a 2021 move/gamble, don’t pay a lot. It’s a cheap bet on him.
5) RB Raheem Mostert, SF *Redraft+Dynasty*
He may be coming in back Week 12 and will be a strong RB1 for the 2020 ROS…but also a sneaky RB1 for 2021 if he’s back with SF.
Trade Valuation? RB1.5-2.0…he’s been out of sight/out of mind for a few weeks, and there’s no guarantee on how healthy he is. We’re trying to get a deal, not chase blindly.
FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS…
*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or values thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*
1) RB Gio Bernard, CIN *Redraft*
With Burrow out, Gio has some appeal with Joe Mixon out currently…and the whispers that Mixon could be out all season. However, the Bengals might have the worst offense in the NFL without Burrow – little opportunity for Gio to shine. Try to flip it with any heat left if you don’t need the warm body RB.
Sell Valuation? RB2…you pray. If you get RB3 offers, you should maybe just keep him as a live body.
2) WRs Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd, CIN *Redraft*
Without Burrow, everything dies. Ryan Finley is not awful, but he’s not great working behind a terrible O-Line. Bail if you can get a decent bid.
Sell Valuation? WR2…if you can find a buyer who loves the names.
3) QB Lamar Jackson, BAL *Redraft or DYNASTY*
Been flipping him in deals involving acquiring Josh Allen for weeks, but now I have to add more and more to it to get it done. I don’t believe in Lamar and I do believe in Josh Allen…or if you can get into Kyler or Russ or Mahomes or Herbert somehow using Lamar as part of the deal. If you can get into an elite QB by using Lamar + ___ for someone who thinks they are buying low, I’d make a move.
There is a lot of ‘Lamar’s great schedule ahead’ talk…use that to your advantage.
Sell Valuation? QB1…a top 8 QB, you hope people still remember 2019 strongly.
4) WR Will Fuller, HOU *DYNASTY*
You want to keep for this next two weeks of favorable schedule if you’re still in it for the 2020 race, but if you’re rebuilding…Fuller is hitting free agency for 2021 and once he goes away from Watson, I don’t like him all that much. He’d have to land great but even then…new guy in a new system, and he’s not elite.
I’m not giving him away, just trying to sell as an elite-ish guy who could land right in 2020. I’m betting against it and trying to cash out on the fairy tale.
Sell Valuation? WR1.5…not top tier, but in that ‘always start’ group after that right now.
5) WR Tyler Lockett, SEA *Redraft*
He’s having more cold games than hot…when he has a hot one, like Week 11, then it’s 2-3 cold ones after. Basically, Lockett has destroyed Arizona 2x lately and been a WR3-4 otherwise the last 5-6+ weeks. If you want to try to flip a currently hot asset…here’s a window.
Sell Valuation? WR1.5…try to think of him as like redraft Will Fuller to trade away, you want that kind of extraction – if you can find someone who is into him.
FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS…
*Total flyer/lowly owned or not-owned players
1) RB Troymaine Pope, LAC
If Kalen Ballage misses this week, most will turn to Joshua Kelley…I’d be after Pope as at least the 50-50 split, as the Austin Ekeler-like back. But I think he could lead the way, since Anthony Lynn has little confidence in Kelley.
2) RB Tevin Coleman, SF
All the 49ers’ RBs get hurt every other week. If Mostert goes down, or just can’t get back…Tevin Coleman, if he’s back/healthy, would be a lead back for SF and their nice O-Line.
3) TE Jordan Akins, HOU
Just when you think he’s dead (he was on ‘quit them’ list last week), he goes back to his early season TE1 PPR ways. No guarantees on his touch counts ahead, but he has worked like a PPR TE1 multiple times this year…an injury held him out/lost his momentum. He may have just gotten it back.
4) RB Jordan Howard, PHI
Back with Philly, where he was the lead most of last year before a neck injury stole it from him. He’ll be on their practice squad…but IF Miles Sanders gets hurt, Howard would be elevated into the lead role…not Boston Scott, I believe.
5) WR Dez Bryant, BAL
Looked really good in Week 11. For a team needing an Alpha…Dez looked like he might be ready. I don’t trust Dez. I don’t trust the BAL passing game. But, Dez has a name and if he pops you could flip him…for those who can still trade.
6) RB Rashaad Penny, SEA
He’s back running and cutting. Chris Carson cannot seem to stay healthy. Penny may be getting ready to return, and then if Carson gets re-hurt…it might create some magic out of nowhere.
7) RB Ty Johnson, NYJ
Saw 4 catches last week…maybe his role is increasing, or LaMichal Perine is banged up. Ty has looked good in drips and drabs in the chances he’s gotten. If he ever gets a bigger chance…he’d show/be better than Perine.
8) RB Devine Ozigbo, JAX
Everyone pines for James Robinson, right? Well, his ‘cuff’ is back/active and had 3 catches Week 11…Ozigbo, who was the guy who was set to potentially start Week 1 until he got hurt in the preseason/right before the season start. In a year of needing proper handcuffs, Ozigbo is back and is the de facto handcuff for JRob.
-- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS --
1) RB Kerryon Johnson, DET
It was a one-week window with Swift out with concussion. Swift should be back this week, and Kerryon was barely paid attention to this week. Detroit needed more Adrian Peterson, I guess. Surprised they scored zero points with their offensive geniuses.
I’m not a Kerryon fan, but why do they even roster him if they are going to use fading AP in a must-win week crisis?
2) RB Matt Breida, MIA
They should cut him like they did Jordan Howard. Breida was back this week, and Salvon Ahmed was the main guy…and Miles Gaskin returns Week 12 or 13. Breida is dead, has been.
3) WR Auden Tate, CIN
Tate was working his way into a decent role here, but with Burrow gone…’I’m out’ on Cincy things.
4) WR Cam Sims, WSH
Playing a lot of snaps. Looks good on the field. I’ve been impressed. Washington is not…he’s barely seeing targets. Alex Smith has spoken, I guess.
5) RB David Johnson, HOU
The Texans are terrible in the run game. DJ or Duke have been disappointments. When DJ gets back, he would have IND-CHI-IND Weeks 13-15…no thanks. Don’t clog up a spot for DJ if you need the space to gamble on other things.
-- STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS --
This Seattle defense is getting better the past 2-3 weeks. Carlos Dunlap makes a difference. If they can get CBs Griffin and Dunbar back, this gets even more promising.
Week 12 = at PHI
Week 13 = NYG
Week 14 = NYJ
Week 15 = at WSH
This just became white hot for Week 12…NYG at CIN. It’s a one week use only. As much as I respect the NYG-DST, their schedule stinks Weeks 13-14. Might be useful Weeks 15-16 vs. CLE and BAL.
This schedule is trying to be pretty sweet…
Week 12 vs. WSH, home on Thanksgiving.
Week 13 at BAL…might be OK.
Week 14 at CIN…now awesome.
Week 15 vs. SF…might the 49ers out of it.
Week 16 vs. PHI…could be the showdown for the NFC East.
This is a long shot DST we’ve been monitoring for weeks. They’ve held four of their last 7 opponents to 21 points or fewer in a game. It’s not the worst defense ever. It has a good offense supporting it. They smacked around SF Week 9 and handled JAX Week 10 well despite missing key CBs.
Week 12 = vs. Foles/CHI…facing the worst offense in the NFL.
Week 13 = vs. PHI with their bad O-Line.
Week 14 = at DET, not a bad matchup.
You could start with some low-level confidence the next five weeks.
This defense is sneaky good, they’ve just played some good offenses of late. There’s an opportunity Weeks 12-16…
Week 12 = at NE
Week 13 = v. LAR (not good, but not the worst)
Week 14 = at NYG
Week 15 = PHI
Week 16 = SF
Four possible DST starts in this five-week stretch.
They have decent personnel on defense, and they are getting a bit better/healthier each week. Three game win streak holding two of their last 4 opponents to 12 or fewer points.
Your interest here would be Weeks 13…and maybe 14.
Week 13 = at NYJ
Week 14 = IND (maybe)
This DST is getting erratic, but when they’re up…they’re a menace of a pass rush. Week 12 they face a bad O-Line they can take advantage of in a HUGE game vs. Dallas for the NFC East.
Week 12 = at DAL (nice-ish)
Week 13 = at PIT…no.
Week 14 = at SF, possible.
This is more of a use Week 12, and then probably done.
I’m a Sean McDermott fan…maybe the best head coach/personnel man in the NFL, PLUS he’s a defensive guru. Coming off a bye week, he may be getting some starters back healthy at a time the schedule starts to give opportunity.
This would be a bet that McDermott starts to turn this defense around. Great in 2019, wobbly all 2020.
Week 12 = vs. LAC…no good.
Week 13 = at SF, possible use.
Week 14 = PIT…no good.
Week 15 = at DEN…this is solid.
Week 16 = at NE…like it.
-- Sleeper/lesser-name IDP’s whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --
1) LB Alex Singleton, PHI
Last 5 games…10.2 total tackles per game.
Last two games, 14.0 total tackles per game.
He’s the current tackle monster in the NFL. He’s always where the ball is and usually making the tackle.
I shouldn’t put him on here again, but he’s gone under the radar/people not believing/not claiming. Last time he’ll be on the list -- is this week.
2) SAF Ashtyn Davis, NYJ
I’m really liking what I see here. 12 tackles Week 11…his tackle counts have been growing for weeks as he’s become a starter.
3) SAF Kyle Dugger, NE
Becoming a trusted starter for NE, and an IDP producer – 9.0 tackles per game the past two games. A very talented rookie who should’ve been a 1st-round pick.
4) CB Bryce Hall, NYJ
First NFL start, 7 solo tackles. He’s going to start for the ROS, most likely, and get picked on a lot…which means IDP opportunity.
5) DL David Onyemata, NO
2.0 sacks Week 11, now 5.0 sacks in his last 8 games. 3.0 tackles per game his last 6 games with 8.0 TFLs in his last 8 games plus an interception.
Will Ferrell, take us out to Week 12… https://youtu.be/P_a8dDltfDk?t=92
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