2020 Week 12: Three Things from Sunday Games + Top 5’s Waivers/Buy-Sell/Sleepers/DST/IDPs
About 4:30pmET Sunday, I thought we might be headed to the worst FFM (global, across all platforms) week/win-rate of the 2020 season…at the absolute wrong time for it to happen. Kyler laid an egg. Justin Herbert had his lowest game of the year. Facing Antonio Gibson had a few people in a hole already, as did them starting J.D. McKissic. It was trending poorly.
As I watched Kendall Hinton with his coat draped around him on the sidelines to start his game (little did I know that would’ve been for the FF-best if he stayed on the sidelines, or working in sales, all game)…it looked like it was all slipping away to an under 50% win-rate week…and, thus, a miserable day/week ahead for me and many of you.
The problem was…I was selling Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill short. I should have learned my lesson long ago, never to doubt the power of MYreek.
Mahomes-Tyreek are the #2-3 most owned players by the FFM subscriber base, across all platforms (many built their Dynasty base with them years ago). Kyler is #4. You know who #1 is? Write down a guess. At the very end of this report, I’ll reveal who that is.
Tampa Bay did many of us a huge favor and single covered Tyreek, and many fantasy projected losses started flipping to wins within a span of 4:30pm-5:30pmET as Tyreek’s FF tally raced like the national debt clock.
We have two games left this week still, and a lot of FFMers have several players to go…and to face, so it’s hard to say the win-rate projection right now, but it looks like 55%+ with a chance at 60-65%...but also a chance at near 50%. Such variability, but if the PIT-BAL game just gets cancelled, it would be a bad wrecking ball for some.
This week came down to, in a simple sense, did you have Tyreek, Antonio Gibson, Patrick Mahomes or Derrick Henry or did you face them? Sometimes, weeks like this is ‘what happens’. Last week, was more muted scoring all over and depth/quality across the board was the key to victory. This week, one guy carried the keys to victory or defeat in many instances.
You gotta love fantasy football…you literally never know what is going to happen one game to the next, and just when you think you’re dead – Tyreek Hill has an event, and not even the birth of your own children can bring as much joy as KC’s #10 giving you the peace sign as he races to the end zone…again and again and again…
Thank you, Bruce Arians!!! https://youtu.be/eCaSvo7ntMA
Good Luck and Godspeed tonight and Tuesday night.
*Our normal Tuesday Night Video Q&A will be shifted on time start-stop due to the BAL-PIT game. Likely 6:45pm-8pmET, but we’ll set that in stone Tuesday (making sure the game is not cancelled).
-- THREE THINGS ON EACH SUNDAY GAME (thoughts subject to change as I rewatch games all week) --
-- Once Austin Ekeler (14-44-0, 11-85-0/16), the Chargers played their worst offensive game…because Anthony Lynn is gonna lean Ekeler over everything – even in the face of watching Herbert carry his offense since his hostile takeover as starting QB. Ekeler will be a PPR RB1…possible #1 overall the rest of the way. Justin Herbert’s (31-52 for 316 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) high flying days will have some upside trimmed off with him just throwing screens half the game.
-- Low passing attempt game from Buffalo, higher rush attempts…a different kind of game plan than usual – smart to throw the opponent off. I didn’t see anything off or bad, just Buffalo getting ahead and trying to hold the ball/protect the lead. Nothing wrong with Josh Allen (18-24 for 157 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 9-32-1).
-- I spoke about it on the Sunday Video Q&A, and here was some more evidence…the Buffalo Bills pass defense is starting to ‘turn’ (for the good). They used to be a kinda no-fly zone for opponents in 2018 and 2019. Then they got wrecked early in the 2020 season (a lot of injuries), but now they are getting a bit healthier and more cohesive, and Sean McDermott is a great defensive mind. It’s the first time I’ve seen Justin Herbert struggle a bit too.
Facing SF Week 13…but more nerve-wracking – they have Pittsburgh Week 14. It will be some pressure on the Steelers WRs we love.
-- Kyler Murray (23-34 for 170 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 5-31-0) was due for a game not to go his way…here it was. He had his chance for TDs, but they got down to the 1-yard line on plays and then just RB-ran it for scores (plus a TD pass right before half called an inch short as time expired).
No problems I see, except…Kyler doesn’t seem to be running with designed plays as much/defenses are over-focusing on his running…and he’s not cashing in throwing. Two weeks in a row…not sure if this is a mild worry now or not.
-- Somehow the Patriots won with Cam throwing for less than 100 yards, no TDs with 2 picks and holding down Damien Harris (14-47-0). It should be a notice that the Cardinals-DST continues to look better and better each week. Isaiah Simmons (6 tackles, 1 sack) is playing like he’s possessed.
…he still can’t block, and that’s part of the offense’s problem – a flimsy O-Line. Simmons was one of the dumbest draft picks of 2020…not because he is an issue, but more how EXTREMELY valuable an offensive lineman is, and how NOT valuable good outside linebackers are.
-- Andy Isabella (4-33-0/6) started this game with a sweet motion across/little pitch pass for 19 yards. So, of course, they didn’t run it more in the game from there. Isabella is on some kind of S-list with Kyler, and has been since last year. His career is being wasted in Arizona in this offense.
-- No Gaskin. No Ahmed. Who would be the main RB for Miami in that case? DeAndre Washington (13-49-0, 2-11-0/5). It will be Gaskin next week (if active), and/or Ahmed. There’s not much with Washington for FF ahead at this stage.
Why is Matt Breida (8-36-0) even on this team? He might not be for long.
-- Another game, another baby step forward for Denzel Mims (4-67-0/8). He is progressing every week for the past few weeks…it’s just hard to feel it because he plays on such an awful passing game team. Maybe next year with Trevor Lawrence? That will be a big topic for CFM next season (starting Jan 2021).
-- Ryan Fitzpatrick (24-39 for 257 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) gets the win. As soon as Tua can go…it will be Tua, for sure. And then DeVante Parker (8-119-0/14) drops back to a WR3…WR1-ish with Fitz, WR3 with Tua.
-- Brandon Allen (17-29 for 136 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) played about as well as he could. He has no real O-Line, thus no run game to help his cause…which then drags all the passing game things down for Cincy. A bad FF-scene.
-- The Giants will have a similar problem if Colt McCoy (6-10 for 31 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT) has to take over for Daniel Jones – all the related things will suffer, Except, Wayne Gallman (24-94-1, 3-0-0/5) is running his heart out and is working every week. Colt may bring him down, in the end.
-- The best thing in this game…the Giants defense is really good. A top 5 NFL defense, potentially. The Giants offense put the defense in some spots, but the defense rallied and made plays and held off a late charge by Cincy.
People will drop the NYG-DST this week because they have at SEA and ARI the next two weeks, but Week 15 v. CLE might not be too bad…and it will probably be a key game for NYG in the NFC East title chase. A possible sleeper use for Week 15…for those planning ahead and your league is hoarding DSTs (and QBs).
-- Again, I’m not sure what has happened…but as I alluded on the Sunday morning show – there’s something up with Jonnu Smith (0-0-0/0) and the Titans. He may be hurt too, but I keep hearing they value Anthony Firkser (0-0-0/1) more in the passing game and now they like Geoff Swaim (3-30-0/3) helping in the run game. I need to find out more this week, but this is all very scary for Jonnu’s FF worth now…it’s falling off a cliff.
-- A tight end that is loved…Trey Burton (3-42-1/6). I’ve been mocking it, then kinda embraced it last week for this game (kinda)…but no more making fun of it. 5 TDs in his last 6 games (two of them ‘rushing’).
-- This was what I feared from Michael Pittman (2-28-0/9)…that he was the Colts’ best WR, but that the way Philip Rivers was using him/throwing to him didn’t get me excited that it was going to a next level in 2020. There’s more push for T.Y. Hilton (4-81-1/5) as a top target suddenly, but Rivers-Hilton doesn’t look good to me either, visually (as a scout). Something just doesn’t feel right with Rivers at QB (for projecting FF results).
-- When I thought Rashard Higgins (1-15-0/2) had cut in front of him, Jarvis Landry (8-143-1/11) comes out and had his best game ever with Baker. No more Higgins talk from me. I saw a window…and it was false…and it closed on my hand. Not the first time, or the last, I’ll get my hand caught in a slamming FF-window. It’s what FF is all about.
-- Collin Johnson (4-96-1/8) had a day here… He’s a 6’6” rookie WR who has a nice catch radius for a QB such as Mike Glennon. With Chark-Conley out, Johnson provides a nice target…and a guy who would be least paid attention to in coverage. I wouldn’t think something hot for FF is happening here. If Chark or Conley return next week, Johnson goes back to a #4 WR most likely.
-- Mike Glennon (20-35 for 235 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) wasn’t as horrible here as I expected, but keep in mind the Browns were missing three key starting defenders coming into this and lost another starter early in the game.
-- D.J. Moore (4-61-0/9) had an end zone shot in this game, and while leaping for a catch (missed) he landed awkwardly on his leg and either hurt his ankle or knee. Not sure if it’s ‘questionable’ or something worse. If DJM is out, it helps both Robby Anderson (4-94-1/7) and Curtis Samuel (5-72-0/5, 1-5-0) get more touches/targets ahead.
-- Kirk Cousins (34-45 for 307 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) is on total fire…3 TD passes in four of his last 6 games. Back-to-back 300+ yard games. Now averaging 2.1 passing TDs per game…that’s upper level output.
Facing JAX Week 13…the run can continue. Weeks 14-16 with TB-CHI-NO is a bit unpredictable, not as favorable.
-- As Cousins’ tallies go higher, Kyle Rudolph’s (7-68-0/8) output has been rising as well…and it helps when Irv Smith is out too. Last 4 games: 4.3 rec., 50.0 yards per game…but no TDs. He only has 1 TD all season (he’s due for a 2 TD game…).
-- I got cute trying to find FF-points with Kendall Hinton (1-9 for 13 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs, 2-7-0) classified as a WR, but starting at QB – and it backfired…big time. I didn’t foresee Denver thrusting him into a POCKET passing situation so quickly. It doesn’t even make sense. It took until late in the 2nd-quarter or into the 3rd-quarter before they thought to throw a screen pass to help the kid out.
Instead of tailoring the game to him, they tried to make him fit their playbook…and chaos ensued.
This is the beauty and madness of fantasy – sometimes you double down on ‘10’ in Blackjack and double your haul with a face card dealt to you, and sometimes you get a six and lost 2x your bet.
-- Two weeks in-a-row where Latavius Murray (19-124-21-2-0/1) fits what Taysom Hill is doing better than Alvin Kamara. Murray will be a debated RB2 this week. The argument might more be – should he be ranked higher than Kamara?
-- We’ve gotten two games with Taysom, and in those two starts Alvin Kamara (11-54-0, 1-(-2)-0/2) has one catch for -2 yards on 3 targets. It’s now a worry. However, they didn’t have to force things to AK here because the game was out of hand quickly.
…however, running QBs do not throw heavy to RBs. So, this is now a real fear for AK owners. Drew Brees cannot get back fast enough if you own Kamara.
-- What a game by Deebo Samuel (11-133-0/13). He is becoming the superior, flawless version of A.J. Brown. So tough after the catch and near matchup-proof.
-- Mostert-Wilson back and they walk off of I.R. and into 28 carries combined…and Jerick McKinnon (3-21-0, 2-11-0/3) saw 3 carries. When Tevin Coleman returns, McKinnon may not touch the ball. He seems to have become the #4 RB here, when everyone is healthy.
-- Cam Akers (9-84-1) had a TD and a 61-yard run in this game…which will make this RBBC more confusing ahead. Last week, Akers was a bit player. This week, the big/long run to help get noticed. Who knows what next week brings? It is a true RBBC between Akers-Henderson-Brown.
-- How this game ended up a 3-point game with KC only scoring 27 points is beyond me. They could’ve scored a hundred if they wanted too…but after a white-hot start, KC pulled back the reins and then let Tampa Bay creep in.
I mention this because the Bucs pass defense just got ripped by KC, and the Rams a week ago, and prior to that by Carolina, and then by New Orleans before that. Whatever had the Bucs rolling on defense weeks ago...it has died of late. They can’t stop any decent+ offense. Next up…the on-fire Kirk Cousins Express.
-- Tampa was throwing a lot, but Brady wasn’t leaning on Antonio Brown (2-11-0/3) hardly at all. It looked like KC was keen to it as well in coverage but it’s also this – there has been no steady pattern of Brady leaning on anything for long. With that, you can’t fully trust Gronk (6-106-0/7) to follow this up…the weeks prior he was barely involved in the passing game some games.
Who leads the way Week 13? Your guess is as good as mine. Mike Evans (3-50-2/9) will score a TD…that’s all I know.
-- Sammy Watkins (4-38-0/7) returned to action and in a game where KC was chucking it all over Tampa…Demarcus Robinson (5-36-0/6) has more catches than Watkins or Mecole Hardman (3-23-0/5). Robinson is averaging 5.5 catches per game the past two games. Is he the new #2 WR for Mahomes? Maybe. The pattern still looks erratic to me.
-- I want to sell David Montgomery (11-103-0, 5-40-1/6) as fast as possible off this big-stats-in-a-national-TV-game event. However, for redraft…DET-HOU-MIN-JAX the next 4 games…all great matchups. One wide open run early and a late garbage TD…do not make a star…BUT that schedule ahead is nice.
-- It’s happening again… The thing where Green Bay truly likes Jamaal Williams (17-73-1) better than Aaron Jones (17-90-0, 1-0-0/2). Tired of me saying that?
Since Week 7:
Jamaal Williams is the #11 PPR RB in fantasy (14.0 PPG)
Aaron Jones is the #15 PPR RB in fantasy (13.6 PPG)
-- Last two weeks for GB SAF Raven Greene (7 tackles, 1 PD): 8.0 total tackles per game, 1 PD, 1 FF. Five PDs in his last 5 games. He played a season high 75% of the snaps this game. He’s not starting, but he’s slowly starting to get up towards starter-level snaps. A faithful FFM member tipped me off to watch out for him this season…and I’ve been. He’s getting into the deep sleeper IDP watch list discussion.
===== FIVE PLAYERS… =====
**NOTE: Tuesday Night Waiver Madness Video Q&A 8:00-9:30pmET, where we will go over more of all these things (below) every Tuesday night**
FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST…
*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.
**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me.
***FAAB % mentioned at any time below is based on a 17-20 man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.
1) RB Devontae Booker, DEN (B+) *Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important the waiver move is in context.
ONLY if Josh Jacobs is out this week (or longer).
Could be an ‘A+’ waiver free agent/all-in if JJ out longer term.
Booker has been fantastic with relief carries for the past several weeks, and we’ve been preaching to grab him for Jacobs’ owners as the true handcuff for a while now. Well, your moment has arrived…potentially.
If Jacobs is out Week 13, then Booker will likely be an RB1 projection vs. the Jets as the full starter.
2) QB Kirk Cousins (C)
Cousins’ last 9 games played (since Week 3), he’s averaged:
2.33 TDs/0.77 INTs, 266.2 yards per game…those are nice QB1 numbers in 6pts per pass TD leagues. He’s the #9 QB in 6pts per pass TD PPG since Week 3, #11 in 4pts per pass TD leagues.
He did this last year too…terrible first few games, then straight fire after that. He faces JAX, TB, CHI, at NO to finish out…not a bad schedule outside of the NO game, which should be a war/rematch from last year’s playoffs.
What a great #2 QB to stick on your bench as an emergency. Somehow, nationally, available in more than 50% of leagues going into Week 13.
3) RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (D)
Why he is still available in so many leagues, I have no idea. If you own Dalvin Cook, YOU HAVE TO own Mattison. He’s also not a bad investment if you don’t have Cook…just to see if Cook gets hurt or sick, etc.
4) RB Tony Pollard, DAL (D)
In the same vein as Mattison, but playing behind a worse O-Line with a worse offense…so ranked below Mattison – but Pollard is more talented and could be a shock FF producer if thrown in due to a Zeke injury of any kind.
5) WR Dez Bryant (D)
I think he’s the #1 WR for the Ravens now…and he could get an overload of targets Tuesday and really jump. But…this game could be cancelled too (doubtful)…or you have room to take a look by dropping an MNF or Tue. night player that’s not too important to you.
6) WR Nelson Agholor, LV (D)
The #1 WR for the Raiders, means something in a given week. He’s putting up WR2-3 work each week, depending upon if it is a TD week or not.
7) PK Matt Gay, LAR (D-)
The big-legged kicker was #5 in FF scoring per game among kickers last season but was inexplicably cut by Tampa Bay in September (pre 53-man) and just was signed to LAR a few weeks ago. He’s had two good games as the starter, so far. He’s a 50+ yard threat always.
The extra benefit here is…kicking in a dome the next 3 weeks: at ARI, home v NE, home v. NYJ. Week 16 at SEA then home for the Week 17 finale.
FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST…
1) RB DeAndre Washington, MIA
Was kinda the lead guy Week 12, but either Myles Gaskin or Salvon Ahmed, or both, will be back next week…and that’s all she wrote for Washington. He didn’t do enough to move himself up the depth chart with his chance.
2) WR Gabriel Davis, BUF
Starting for John Brown for two more weeks. He’s not bad, but so many other WR options on waivers typically. He’s a WR4 right now, and you just hope he scores a TD to get a payoff.
3) WR Collin Johnson, JAX
Nice Week 12 with Mike Glennon, but you have to hope Glennon and Johnson can keep this up, especially when the opponents get tougher and when Chark and/or Conley return Week 13 or 14. Johnson is a neat story because he’s tall…that’s about it.
4) RB Cam Akers, LAR
Solid player. People LOVE the name. He’s going to split time with Henderson-Brown, and Akers is typically the low man on the touch/snaps totem pole.
5) RB Ito Smith, ATL
Had a better game than Brian Hill, but Hill is more the lead guy. Ito racked some numbers as Atlanta pushed the lead by 20 and then 30+ points. Unless Raheem Morris specifically says Ito is the new lead RB…I’d be wary of him. Wary of a split between he and Hill, and then having to see if Gurley reappears.
FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS…
*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*
-- Trade deadlines are mostly past, but some have open trading still. Going to start focusing more and more on Dynasty trades down the stretch.
1) QB Josh Allen, BUF *Redraft+Dynasty*
I have him on here every time he’s had a not-amazing FF output game because I hold firm to the belief that no one really trusts him as a top 5 type QB, you just need to give them a reason to bail. I believe he’s a top 3-5 QB of the future, and the now.
Trade Valuation? Top 10-12, random lucky QB people secretly want out of. Find the non-believer.
2) WR Diontae Johnson/WR Chase Claypool, PIT *Redraft+Dynasty*
I’m just noting here…
It’s a bad matchup with the Ravens, especially for Diontae if Jimmy Smith is on him/active.
This game is on a Tuesday night, and a higher profile game…meaning many will watch. Solo night games will do tricky things to people’s minds. If Diontae or Chase don’t do anything of note, for whatever reason, on national TV – a window might open to talk deals on them.
You think that sounds cheesy, but that’s the way these things work 9 out of 10 times…people are swayed (too much) by solo night games they watch with their own two eyes. Not saying they will give them away, but the window opens for a moment right after the (bad) game (if it happens).
Trade Valuation? WR1.5-2.0…we’re looking for a deal on Diontae, and for Dynasty we’re looking for any possible way to get hold of Claypool at a reasonable price.
3) WR Terry McLaurin, WAS *DYNASTY*
This is my first real chase/endorsement of McLaurin heavy, but I cannot deny the trending and what my eyes are seeing. He is on the brink of becoming a breakout FF star bigger than he has. He has everyone’s respect but the ‘stink’ of ‘Washington’ kinda makes him feel like a WR1.5-2.0 type…not a WR1. I think WR1/top 5-7 days are ahead of him…because I think Washington will address their QB situation and help it along (just not using Haskins is a huge step forward).
Since Week 5, he’s been the #18 PPR PPG WR in fantasy…behind Curtis Samuel, Brandin Cooks, among others – he can get lumped into being that kind of ‘respected but not worshipped’ WR name.
Trade Valuation? WR1.5 (or closer to WR2 if I can weasel it in a multi-player deal)…I’m not looking to pay a fair price; I want a steal…if it exists. It may not. But sometimes these guys that don’t score a lot of TDs (just 3 TDs this season) don’t get the full trade respect they deserve. The TDs should be there in the future.
4) RB J.K. Dobbins, BAL *DYNASTY*
He’s respected. He’s a rookie. But he hasn’t been a ‘wow’ player yet. People are fickle with rookies…they LOVE them before they actually play, then once they play and aren’t instantly awesome, then they become less valuable rapidly. In January, they’re somewhat old news for rookie-lovers.
Dobbins out this week with COVID hides him some more, but I think once he’s back – he’s the full main guy and will start rolling 100+ yard games and his value takes off.
More of a non-PPR guy than PPR, per se.
Trade Valuation? RB1.5-2.0…there’s risk here, so we’re not betting the farm/paying full price. We get a deal we like, or we walk.
5) WR Curtis Samuel, CAR *Redraft+Dynasty*
IF D.J. Moore is really hurt badly, like out for a few games or rest of the season – it will put more spotlight and more touches on Curtis Samuel…and his value will pop more and more. He’s still a distrusted WR2-3 guy. People still like DJM way better, and Robby A. better. Samuel is a 3rd-wheel people tend not to trust. I think he’s the most talented WR they have. He may get even more touches if DJM is down.
Trade Valuation? WR2.5…useful now, and about to be a coveted free agent in the NFL. Hopefully, staying with Carolina. He has WR1.5 potential for sure.
FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS…
*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell ‘good’. Try to find someone in love with your player or values thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*
1) WR Jarvis Landry, CLE *Redraft+Dynasty*
Jarvis Landry has had mostly garbage WR2-4 games with Baker for 2+ seasons. He had the game of his Baker-life in Week 12 against 3rd-string CBs for Jacksonville. You got a window to sell…I suggest you do it.
Sell Valuation? WR…if you can somehow pull it off. Like Landry + ____ for a WR you really want bad, be it Claypool, McLaurin, whatever. Try to use Landry to chip into the valuation.
2) RB David Montgomery, CHI *DYNASTY*
After many weeks, a year really, of declining values and people going from pure love to total mocking…you’ve got a temporary sugar high. A great FF game (weak/average real game) on national TV Week 12 SNF.
People have wanted to love him going back to late-August 2019, when his ADP jumped past Josh Jacobs their rookie preseason. The love was STRONG. It’s getting ginned up again. FYI…he still stinks/is a below average talent. If you think Matt Nagy could get fired, then DM is in real trouble in 2021+…he should be anyway.
Sell Valuation? RB1.5/strong RB2…go shopping for something you really have wanted but needed a hot name that people deep-down want to love, like Montgomery. You have to find the Montgomery believer, and they won’t reveal themselves because it’s not cool to like him these days…so, don’t believe their B.S. that they’re not interested.
3) WR T.Y. Hilton, IND *Redraft*
Scored a TD (his 1st of the season). Had 81 yards. It was a decent FF day for him Week 12. Just sell it for whatever you can get. Throw into any deal, etc.
Sell Valuation? WR3…or anything you can.
4) WR DeVante Parker, MIA *Redraft or DYNASTY*
Parker + Fitz = you want to hold for 2020.
Parker + Tua = garbage, and he’s stuck with him through 2021 at a minimum.
Sell Valuation? Strong WR2…a Parker + ____ for a WR you really covet type thing is something to consider here too.
5) RB Cam Akers, LAR *Redraft or DYNASTY*
Had a long run Week 12. Had a TD. Is a rookie. Why…he might be the greatest thing ever!! Sell now, because the LAR backfield is an RBBC mess.
Sell Valuation? RB1.5 in Dynasty…can you use Akers + ___ to get into a Dobbins or Jon Taylor, should you want to?
FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS…
*Total flyer/lowly owned or not-owned players
1) QB Jalen Hurts, PHI
You heard/saw the rumors of ‘more snaps with the 1’s at practice’ and ‘going to work more plays in games’. That’s usually the forerunner of a QB change about to happen…if Wentz craps the bed on MNF it may happen at halftime. I’d estimate Week 13 or 14 will be Hurts’ first start.
2) QB Tyrod Taylor, LAC
Just noting, for those with Justin Herbert as their main QB and a #2 QB in reserve that they don’t love…if you play 4pts pass TD and Herbert is your guy and your waiver wire is stripped bare – consider adding Tyrod as your #2, and you’re protected for the ROS…in a sense.
Chris Streveler (ARI) and Matt Moore (probably over Henne) are considerations for the same reasoning. Again, this is just a note that if you don’t have a 2nd QB of worth/at all, and are making the playoffs, and if your waivers has nothing for QBs right now…and if you lost Herbert you’d be screwed.
3) TE Kahale Warring, HOU
Looked promising/athletic in 4 snaps that he played Week 12. Likely, he will slow build to more and more snaps and play a lot Week 17…it’s not a redraft vibe as much as it is a Dynasty consideration in deeper roster leagues. Warring fell out of sight, out of mind…he’s about to be discussed again. You’re early/first if you act now.
4) TE Jordan Reed, SF
Not a good FF output in Week 12…but had decent targeting (6 targets). Now that SF is still in the playoff picture, Reed/SF has motivation to keep pushing. If you’re dying at TE…Reed is worth a look as a #2 TE to see if he could be your #1 TE down the stretch.
5) WR Denzel Mims, NYJ
3.5 catches, 66.5 yards per game the last two games. His numbers are slowly creeping up as he gets integrated into the NFL (just 4 games experience now).
What has caught my eye is how well the QBs look to him, make throws his way hoping he comes up with a play. I haven’t seen a ‘wow’ moment yet, but he is getting a little closer every week with just solid/smart (for a rookie) play. Hoping we’ll see a jump like Justin Jefferson had in the weeks to come…but that’s just a hope, hard to see with Darnold-Flacco.
-- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS --
1) RB Matt Breida, MIA
The Dolphins needed a new lead guy for Week 12 with Gaskin-Ahmed out…they went with DeAndre Washington instead of Breida. Basically, Miami goes with anything over Breida.
2) RB Troymaine Pope, LAC
Now that Austin Ekeler is back there is no room at the Inn for Troymaine Pope. This longshot hope blew his chance when he got a concussion a few weeks back and opened the door to Kalen Ballage (who's also hanging on to FF life at this point).
3) RB Le’Veon Bell, KC
Unless you're holding on as a Clyde Edwards-Helaire handcuff, I don't know why you keep clutched to him. In fact, I'm not even sure is the full CEH handcuff. I think Bell would split time with Darrell Williams, if it came down to it. Le’Veon Bell looks pretty much done for mattering for fantasy football anymore.
4) WR Darnell Mooney, CHI
I really like Darnell Mooney as a talent, but there is no way he's ever going to really matter in 2020 with the state of the Chicago Bears passing game/quarterback/ offense/head coach.
5) RB Jerick McKinnon, SF
As soon as Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson came off injured reserve, it got activated -- McKinnon went to the back of the line for touchiness in Week 12. It will get worse for him to even see the field once Tevin Coleman is back. McKinnon only matters if the top three RB's on the depth chart go down. There's not enough time left in the season to try to play that angle really here is
-- STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS --
This defense is sneaky good, they’ve just played some good offenses of late. They really squashed the Patriots this week.
There’s an opportunity Weeks 13-16, especially Weeks 14-16. The Cardinals will be in a dogfight for the wild card, so this defense will be motivated.
Week 13 = v. LAR (not good, but not the worst)
Week 14 = at NYG (nice)
Week 15 = PHI (nice)
Week 16 = SF (could be OK especially if SF out of the playoffs)
After getting rocked by Atlanta, I’m not sure anyone would have enough confidence in them…but it is the Jets.
Week 13 = at NYJ
Week 14 = IND (maybe)
I’m a Sean McDermott fan…maybe the best head coach/personnel man in the NFL, PLUS he’s a defensive guru. Coming off a bye week, he may be getting some starters back healthy at a time the schedule starts to give opportunity.
This would be a bet that McDermott starts to turn this defense around. Great in 2019, wobbly all 2020. However, they are getting better again the last few weeks – as some guys get healthy and the unit gels.
Weeks 15-16, key FF weeks…this is something potentially.
Week 13 = at SF, possible use.
Week 14 = PIT…no good.
Week 15 = at DEN…this is solid at the right time.
Week 16 = at NE…like it.
Gave the Rams fits Week 12. If they can somehow beat Buffalo and stay in this race for Week 14-15 to matter…that’s where the good matchups ahead are.
Week 14 = v. WSH
Week 15 = at DAL
A very erratic defense but they have some talent…and some guys that can get healthy and help ahead (hopefully). Three good matchups coming up. How good they’ll be with them is suspect, but they are favorable matchups.
Week 13 = v. CLE
Week 14 = at JAX
Week 15 = v. DET
A very shaky defense, BUT the Texans have won three of their last 4 games…and have been respectable on defense doing it (playing bad offenses has helped, or weather aided effort at CLE).
You want to not even consider them, but at CHI and CIN ahead are really good matchups.
Week 13 = v. IND
Week 14 = at CHI
Week 15 = at IND
Week 16 = v. CIN
The Panthers defense has been solid when they face non-good/great offenses. LV, ARI, NO, KC, TB ran through them but they’ve been tough on CHI, ATL, DET (shutout), and MIN this week (gave up a late TD to blow the game…were good all game).
If Carolina can get CB Donte Jackson back, that’s them at their best. Week 14 v. Denver is favorable, and Week 16 at Washington might be OK, but Carolina may be mentally checked out by then.
Week 13 = BYE
Week 14 = v. DEN
Week 15 = at GB
Week 16 = at WSH
-- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --
1) LB Isaiah Simmons, ARI
He is starting to stand out in games now. He was very tentative and unsure earlier in the season, but now he’s playing like a man possessed. 8.0 total tackles, 1.0 sacks per game the past two games as he becomes a starter for Arizona.
2) LB Harvey Langi, NYJ
Became a starting ILB four weeks ago, in that span (3 games) he’s averaged 9.7 total tackles per game. The Jets are on defense a lot…Langi should be a threat for 10 +/- total tackles per game the rest of the season.
3) SAF Donovan Wilson, DAL
Started the last 7 games and is averaging 6.4 total tackles per game. He’s also added a new wrinkle to his output…3 forced fumbles in his last 4 games.
4) SAF Rayshawn Jenkins, LAC
Since Week 3, in his last 9 games, Jenkins is averaging 7.2 total tackles per game with 0.33 TFLs and 0.33 PDs per game.
5) LB Troy Reeder, LAR
He’s been a starter twice this season (with Micah Kizer out)…and he has averaged 13.0 total tackles per game with double-digit tackles each game. Kizer is on I.R., so Reeder has at least 2 more games of potential big games of tackle counts.
The #1 most owned player in FFM, across all platforms (Redraft pickup, Dynasty Rookie Drafts and trade, Best Ball flyer)… https://youtu.be/0vTeA_8jF-Q
Good luck on Tuesday night!!!