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2020 Week 13: Three Things from Sunday Games + Top 5’s Waivers/Buy-Sell/Sleepers/DST/IDPs

Date:
December 7, 2020

2020 Week 13: Three Things from Sunday Games + Top 5’s Waivers/Buy-Sell/Sleepers/DST/IDPs

 

I fear the memory of the 2020 season some of us will have is the Tyreek Hill long TD catch that he didn’t realize he made and was never challenged for review, and thus Patrick Mahomes lost 6-8+ FF points and Tyreek lost 10+ in a blink (later they lost another round of that on a penalty reversing a long TD). For many of us with one of the KC guys, or both…that was a dagger that could haunt us if any teams end up losing by less than 10-15 this week.

We still have three games to go this week, oddly. So, many FF games are still up in the air…but we could’ve used a big Mahomes event here to push the margins…and we didn’t get it. Fortunately, a lot of other top name QBs were disasters (Russ, Herbert, Watson) to help mitigate the ‘good-not-great’ Mahomes/Tyreek event. However, some are going to get beat by the likes of Cousins-Carr-Tannehill. Welcome to 2020.

It’s too early to tell the way the winds are really blowing this week. It looks like a current 50/50 week across the FFM land right now, with the three games to go that could rise it up to near 60%+ win-rate if all goes well…or possibly one of the worst win-rate weeks of the season (below 50%) if the Steelers WRs flop, or maybe Josh Allen stumbles, or Deebo disappoints, or J.K. Dobbins gets split up – as a few examples of the names I’m hearing and seeing need to come up big…with Antonio Gibson as the #1 nemesis player being faced/being rooted against. A lot of action to go, but it’s very uneasy right now because we didn’t get our Mahomes-Tyreek full booster…for many who are tied to one or more of the KC guys.

Some had Darren Waller save their day. Others had Corey Davis punch them in the nose. It was a weird week, like they all are.

Good luck for those who need it in these final three games of Week 13. We’re going to need the Pittsburgh boys to come through for many of us. This guy knows the Steelers well if you’re scouting the team, especially Diontae for Week 13: https://youtu.be/hm-TiucR-sU

 

 

-- THREE THINGS ON EACH SUNDAY GAME (thoughts subject to change as I rewatch games all week) --

 

CIN-MIA

 -- Tua Tagovailoa (26-39 for 296 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) got the start this week…and that had to be one of the worst games of QB play I’ve seen from a QB this season. Before I saw the stat line, I would’ve thought he had about 150 yards passing and 2-3 turnovers. Penalties reversed at least one turnover. Cincy defenders dropped about a half a dozen picks. Every throw of Tua’s is a painful watch as it flutters out to its destination with him not reading anything – just blindly throwing to people. It was awful…but his WRs bailed him out more than a few times.

It’s a bit early to say ‘bust, but if I were having to bet today – I see a bust. Not a redeeming quality displayed. And he’s getting coddled, protected by a fawning ‘all things Alabama are great’ football media, and the fans follow in lockstep. I’ve seen this too many times to recount over the past 10 years.

Tua is very lucky he’s been playing some of the worst teams in the NFL of late, to help hide some of this with ‘team wins’. Miami has played LAC-DEN-NYJ-CIN in succession the past 4 weeks. KC-NE-LV-BUF the next 4 games won’t be as easy.

 -- Brandon Allen (11-19 for 153 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) subsequently, really battled well (as he could) against an overwhelming defense. He had the opposite luck of Tua in this game…including getting hurt and might be very questionable for Week 14 – which hurts Boyd-Higgins and boosts the Dallas-DST for FF purposes.

 -- With all the injuries to the Miami backfield and WR group…rookie Lynn Bowden (1-11-0, 4-41-0/4) has been elevated into more playing time. I’m going to rewatch this and see Bowden’s usage/snap counts – because he is an easy throw for limited-Tua, and he will likely take a run or two…he could have some deep roster flex potential in PPR.

 

LV-NYJ

 -- Frank Gore (1-2-0) got hurt early which forced the Jets to discover Ty Johnson (22-104-1, 2-13-0/2) and Josh Adams (8-74-0) are really promising and they could’ve been using them all along, and either are a thousand times better than LaMichal Perine (IR).

One thing I can guarantee…if Gore can play next week, he will get all the touches and the other guys will be lucky to get 2-3 touches combined. If Gore is out…it will be Ty Johnson as the lead, even though it should be Josh Adams.

 -- Darren Waller (13-200-2/17) got single covered all day and LV went after it. The Jets never changed coverage until very late, and Waller went off for a monster FF event.

 -- Devontae Booker (16-50-0, 1-1-0/2) looked fine but the Jets’ run defense is getting better and they committed to stopping it and dared Derek Carr to beat them…and it almost worked for the Jets until an incredibly dumb coverage play late in the game got LV the improbable win.

 

IND-HOU

 -- Will Fuller gone, Randall Cobb on IR, and then Brandin Cooks (5-65-0/8) lost to injury in-game…the Texans leaned on Keke Coutee (8-141-0/9) and Chad Hansen (5-101-0/7).

Jordan Akins (2-10-0/3) was once again ignored…no more talk of him the rest of 2020.

 -- It’s ‘fun’ watching David Johnson (10-44-1, 0-0-0/2), the best receiving RB in football in my opinion, come off the field in passing situations or staying into block while tugboat Duke Johnson (6-24-0/6) gets the special pass game treatment, and does nothing with it…ever. Big surprise…the Texans lost a game they should’ve won, in a terrible season that a coach fired 4 games into the year.

 -- Jonathan Taylor (13-91-0, 3-44-1/3) had a sweet week, but it was not on purpose. Taylor was watching a lot of this game early, and then he made the catch & run TD followed by some tough running and forced his way into more time/touches. He was not a big part of the first 25+ minutes of this game…which is scary/a caution on going too hard with him next week.

 

CLE-TEN

 -- Finally, Rashard Higgins (6-95-1/9) had the game I was looking for the last two weeks. I would bet against a follow up vs. BAL next week, and not against NYG Week 15…but Week 16 vs. NYJ he might work nicely.

 -- Back-to-back good/great connection signs/big games with Baker-to-Jarvis Landry (8-62-1/10…this we have to take seriously now. One week was a blip, after seasons of little excitement between these two – now, two big games in-a-row, something appears to have clicked.

Landry is going to draw either Jimmy Smith (if healthy) or Marlon Humphrey Week 14…and that’s not good for him for FF numbers.

I don’t think Landry will draw James Bradberry Week 15, but maybe…and the answer to that goes a long way into determining whether he should be an FF-start vs. NYG Week 15. But, like Higgins, Landry then projects well in Week 16 against the Jets.

I’d still ‘sell high’ on Landry in Dynasty leagues with trading still open. Now, even higher. I don’t think Landry will be with the Browns in 2021 (nor OBJ). Unless they radically restructure their contracts downward.

 -- This game was 38-7 CLE at the half, so the normal flow/plan of offense for Tennessee was thrown out the window. Nothing to read into as any Titans FF-revelations or trends – except you pretty much cannot trust the Titans-DST even in a favorable-ish matchup.

 

DET-CHI

 -- The Bears defense has fully fallen apart…now, the Lions are pushing them around without D’Andre Swift (DNP). Maybe Week 16 at JAX is their only hope for anyone to use, but the team’s season might be over by then too. The Bears pass defense is not delivering any pressure on opposing WRs either, where earlier in the season they were very difficult to throw on. Matt Stafford threw for 402 yards against them somehow this game.

The team is ‘done’…and so should Matt Nagy’s Bears’ career.

 -- David Montgomery (17-72-2, 4-39-0/4) got the workload and stats (and I still maintain to sell him hot in Dynasty, but keep for redraft)…BUT Cordarrelle Patterson (10-59-1, 1-4-0/2) looked like the superior back between them this game…so, of course he got lesser work than Montgomery…and always will.

 -- I have no idea who the Bears QB will be Week 14. Mitch Trubisky (26-34 for 267 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) didn’t look terrible (or as bad as he does sometimes), the team scored 30 points here, but Trubisky is not beloved…a switch to Nick Foles could look like Matt Nagy is ‘doing something’. I like Trubisky better for Allen Robinson (6-75-0/7) but either QB is fine for ARob.

 

JAX-MIN

 -- What looks terrible: Mike Glennon-to-D.J. Chark (2-41-0/7). No connection at all. Collin Johnson (4-66-0/60 is who Glennon is most comfortable with…and Johnson was only playing here when Shenault got hurt. If Shenault is out Week 14…Johnson might be the best FF-play of any JAX WR.

 -- Kirk Cousins (28-43 for 305 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) kept up his QB1 ways with this output, but I can tell you it didn’t look that great live. Against a very weak Jacksonville pass defense…Cousins was struggling mightily most of the drop backs. Thielen-Jefferson made plays to bail him out.

 -- Tyler Eifert (6-45-0/6) with Glennon…5.0 rec, 30.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game. It’s something in PPR, I guess?

 

NO-ATL

 -- The first two weeks of Taysom Hill was a 50-50 type split between Kamara-Murray, but this game it was heavy Alvin Kamara (15-881, 2-9-0/3)…but still very limited/weak pass activity to AK.

Kamara goes back to his PPR RB1 ways when Drew Brees returns, which sounds like possibly Week 14 for Brees…worst case Week 15 he returns.

 -- If all you’d ever seen of the Falcons 2020 was this game, you’d swear Ito Smith (8-36-0, 1-0-0/2) was the team’s lead back. Smith-Gurley kinda split the lead, with Hill sprinkled in here. Todd Gurley (8-16-0, 1-4-0/1) looks shot, long shot guess that he could be headed to IR for his own good. If that happens, it looks like Ito is the lead with Brian Hill (5-18-0) in support trying to recapture his spot over Ito.

 -- Since Week 4, Matt Ryan (19-39 for 273 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) has played 9 games…four of them with 0 TDs in a game. Six of the 9 games with 0-1 TD passes. Additionally, Ryan has three straight games with less than 60% Comp. Pct. in each game – when usually he flirts with 70% all the time. Something is dying with Ryan since Raheem Morris took over.

 

LAR-ARI

 -- There was no warning/signal last week because it was a low snap count game for him, but this week it appears Sean McVay made his longstanding desired move to Cam Akers (21-72-1, 1-22-0/1) as his lead. We know this because despite ineffectiveness again…there he was taking 20+ carries. It’s ridiculous that Akers is getting a push as the much more talented Darrell Henderson (3-49-1, 2-25-0/3) gets pushed to the sideline.

It’s not a sure bet that Akers is now the full lead…but it was/is going to happen eventually. It seems like it’s here now. I’m not a fan, but if he gets 15+ touches…he can be an RB2.

 -- It looked solid for FF, but it was not a good performance by Kyler Murray (21-39 for 173 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 5-15-0). The QB that carried everyone Weeks 1-10…he’s running out of gas – this Air Raid offense is weak, Kyler is not running like he was before, and the schedule has been borderline terrible…and now the Giants are coming to suppress Kyler.

To a degree, you just have to ride Kyler out…he got you this far and his ‘bad’ game, like this, he managed 3 TD passes (luckily). Getting thwarted by the Rams defense is not a horrible thing…and if this is ‘bad’ Kyler, for fantasy, then no tears from me.

 -- Kenyan Drake (10-49-1, 2-9-0/3) was mostly ineffective again…so, Chase Edmonds (6-28-0, 2-15-0/6) was kinda leading the comeback effort at a certain point…but then they went back to Drake. They ain’t quitting Drake, so these Edmonds head fakes should not be fallen for (that’s me talking to me).

 

NYG-SEA

 -- Who was it that was saying the Giants defense was something…like around Weeks 2-3? I’ve got a good eye for emerging defenses in-season ahead of the analyst pack. This week, everyone in FF/NFL analysis will ‘discover’ the Giants defense – but we’ve been watching it, using it (not this week), respecting it for about 10 weeks now.

Week 14 v. ARI, Week 15 v. CLE seems like so-so matchups – I might argue that the Giants will potentially shut both down. The NYG defense is THAT good. Not just ‘pretty good/unexpected’…more like a top 3-5 defense in the NFL, as we’ve been saying for several weeks.

 -- James Bradberry (7 tackles, 1 PD) is a potential Defensive Player of the Year…and another evidence of that is him mostly containing D.K. Metcalf (5-80-0/8) here. Next week DeAndre Hopkins is in trouble and then Jarvis Landry will probably be too Week 15, facing Bradberry.

 -- Always a week too early on these radical calls, or feels like it… Will Dissly (4-28-0/6) had the game I was looking for last week...a step towards being soemthing for FF ahead? Maybe. Wilson deals him TDs on (roughly) an every-other-game pace over the past 3 years (when Dissly plays 50% of the snaps).

 

NE-LAC

 -- If this game performance doesn’t get Anthony Lynn fired, nothing will. The return of Austin Ekeler (8-36-0, 4-32-0/9) has made the Chargers offense/Justin Herbert (26-53 for 209 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs) worse.

All I can say is – go buy Justin Herbert in Dynasty on the price dip if you can. There is nothing wrong with Herbert.

 -- Sony Michel (10-35-0, 1-23-0/1) was active and took carries from the backfield. You can’t fully trust Damien Harris (16-80-0, 1-15-0/1) Week 14, nor for the rest of the year I suspect…now that Michel is taking touches, as Cam takes all the rushing TDs.

 -- LAC rookie LB Kenneth Murray (14 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 TFLs) took a huge step in his development in this game. By far his best game – and when they were getting crushed, Murray was giving 110% effort and trying keep his teammates up. He’s going to be the best leader of men in the NFL in short order, and that’s why he’s a top guy on our IDP Stash reports.

 

PHI- GB

 -- Did we get the Jalen Hurts (5-12 for 109 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 5-29-0) takeover event here? Maybe. My head says it’s Jalen Hurts time, but my NFL head says the NFL always does the stupid thing/opposite of what is obvious/sticks with comfortable until it’s too far gone…which means we’ll get one more chance for Carson Wentz next week.

However, once you make the call/bench the franchise QB…it’s pretty much over. I think Pederson mercy benched Wentz, he didn’t want to – but keeping him out there was going to ruin what was left of his career psyche.

It’s 50-50 on who the QB will be for Philly Week 14.

 -- Jalen Hurts starting hurts most all the Philly offensive weapons for FF, because Hurts starting helps Hurts for FF…and one receiver…one that we don’t know who it will be yet – and this game wasn’t much of a clue because Hurts was thrown into it and scrambling back from a big deficit. We don’t know who he prefers to throw to. Reagor-Goedert will be leading contenders.

Running QBs tend to hurt the RBs for fantasy the most. Hurts will take rushing TDs like Cam-Lamar-J.Allen…leaving the RBs wanting.

 -- Had Aaron Jones (15-130-1, 3-18-0/3) not sprung free for the late-game, cheap 77-yard TD run…there would have been a full-scale panic on Jones going into Week 14. He was headed for another dud but got saved by the bell.

You have no choice but to keep playing him.

 

DEN-KC

 -- Clyde-Edwards-Helaire was active, but Le’Veon Bell (11-40-0, 2-15-0/3) started, played a good amount of the RB snaps…and proved his career is mostly over (as we know it), and that Darrell Williams (6-38-0, 1-5-02) is the better player at this stage of life. It was a nice NFL run, but it appears Le’Veon is ‘over’ and that CEH injury equals a Bell/Williams split. And if the game /situation is important, it probably means you’ll see Williams in more than Bell.

Sunday morning Video Q&A discussing the CEH concerns for this game, him getting barely used coming off his illness – it’s exactly what happened. Swapping him out for a 1pm-4pmET playing option saved a few people from doom this week.

 -- Tim Patrick (4-44-2/4) is the Broncos #1 WR, but you get a lot of 4 for 40+ games without a TD with that. Patrick had one solid/purposeful play TD and one stellar leaping catch TD to make it a nice FF-day. You want to trust him more but you can’t trust Drew Lock (15-28 for 151 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs), who has been under 54% Comp. Pct. in three of his last 4 games. 9 TDs/13 INTs this season for Lock.

 -- Jerry Jeudy (1-5-0/4) is winding down as the season goes on. He was so-so in production most of the season but recently has taken a turn downward and has been banged up. When you think of all the hot rookie WRs having amazing debut seasons…you don’t think of Jeudy.

We got into betting the Jeudy props in the preseason…under’ 824 yards (before it dropped into the high 700s) for the season. He needs 229 yards to defeat that number…or 57.3 yards per game the last 4 games (averaging 49.5 yards per game this season). If he makes a cup of coffee appearance, or does not play at all, Week 17, he probably won’t get there. Otherwise it’s going to be down to the wire with the odds slightly in our favor today.

 

 

  ===== FIVE PLAYERS…  =====

 

**NOTE: Tuesday Night Waiver Madness Video Q&A 8:00-9:30pmET, where we will go over more of all these things (below) every Tuesday night**

 

 

FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST…

*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.

**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me.

***FAAB % mentioned at any time below is based on a 17-20 man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.

 

 

1) WR Keke Coutee, HOU (B or C, depending upon Cooks injury) *Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.

If Brandin Cooks is out for a week(s), Coutee will be the #1 WR for Houston/the #1 look for Watson by default for Week 14…and possibly Week 15+ if Cooks out long (has a history of concussions) and possibly the top guy even when Randall Cobb returns. This has a lot of juice for PPR if Cooks is out for a while – Coutee can be a 7-10+ catch guy in a jam…a jam like what Houston might be in right now.

 

2) QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (C or D, depending upon who Pederson names starter Wk 15)

Will be a back-end QB1 in 4pts per pass TD leagues, potentially. He’s going to be a better passer talent, more inexperienced Taysom Hill-like weapon. We just don’t know if/when Doug Pederson commits to this. It’s not a given that the change has happened for this week going forward.

As of Sunday night, Pederson was saying that he was “going to look at everything.” My bet (55/45% sure) is he uses that as a two-day delay to announce Wentz back as starter.

…and then we’d go through this ‘pulled’ event again and then a change officially happens Week 15 on.

Obviously, if you are pursuing Hurts for FF…you need to hear he’s going to be a starter. And Hurts is only good as a 2nd QB/emergency name if you need it for the playoffs.

 

3) RB Ito Smith, ATL (C or D, depends if they pull the plug on Gurley)

Ito was looking like ‘the man’/the lead in the RBBC-trio Week 13, but we hate trios for FF…but we do have to note it was Ito working as the split/lead back this week (after a strong finish to last week’s game). And if Todd Gurley is just sat/put on IR to preserve his knee…Ito could be the 60/40 (or better) lead for the ROS. I don’t know how great being the 60/40 lead for Atlanta is…but it’s something.

 

4) RB Ty Johnson, NYJ (C or D, depends upon Gore’s injury)

Depends upon Frank Gore’s injury. If Gore is back, Johnson goes back to a relief role/split. If Gore out, then Ty should be the lead sharing with Josh Adams…with risk Adams pulls a bunch from him. Week 15, LaMichal Perine is supposed to return…so this Ty Johnson thing only has real legs IF Gore is out Week 14.

 

5) RB J.D. McKissic, WSH (C-)

Got dropped a bunch last week, but for PPR…he’s still a guy who has value. He doesn’t give you great numbers EVERY week, but he can give you RB1 PPR numbers some weeks (which describes most every RB in existence, spare 5-7 of them right now). In PPR, in the right game flow…he could be a minor savior with a big catch count week.

 

6) PK Matt Gay, LAR (D-)

The big-legged kicker was #5 in FF scoring per game among kickers last season but was inexplicably cut by Tampa Bay in September (pre 53-man) and just was signed to LAR a few weeks ago. He’s had three good/decent games as the starter for LAR, so far. He’s a 50+ yard threat always.

The extra benefit here is…kicking in a dome the next 2 weeks (and three of his final 4 games of the season): home v NE, home v. NYJ. Week 16 at SEA then home for the Week 17 finale.

 

-----------------------------------------------

 

FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST…

 

1) TE Dan Arnold, ARI

Two TDs in Week 13…that’s exciting among the TE wreckage of options out there, but Arnold only saw 3 targets…which is about his norm – three or fewer targets in a game. There was no turn here towards TE1…just a lucky moment.

 

2) TE Drew Sample, CIN *ACTUALLY, NO...DISREGARD...NOT 'GO GET' BUT DON'T TOTALLY IGNORE*

I may have been too hasty here...Sample has 4 and 7 catches for 40+ yards each game with Allen. It might be based on the defense...or Allen using what's available in front of him. Either way, I don't want to ignore it/blow it off yet.

------------------

Original Comments I'm walking back, IF Allen does play this week:

Seven catches is sweet for PPR…so, is he a thing for Brandon Allen now?

a) We don’t know if Allen is going to play next week.

b) Miami takes away your WRs, so you have to go at them with RBs and TEs…and Cincy tried that, thus good touches for Sample here. It’s not a normal plan. Hard to trust anything from Sample.

 

3) WR Henry Ruggs, LV

Sweet game winning TD, but junk output otherwise…like usual. There is not a move to Ruggs happening, just a nice play to end their game Week 13.

 

4) WR Chad Hansen, HOU

5 catches for 101 yards on 7 targets Week 13, out of nowhere and looked good doing it. Are you really going to FF-play Hansen Week 14? Maybe he has a decent game against the Bears, in the cold/wind at Chicago…and then Cooks and Cobb may be back, and then Hansen disappears.

Hansen is like a useful Chris Hogan-ish type WR. Solid, but not going to be a reliable FF producer consistently.

 

5) TE Anthony Firkser, TEN

In a game where the Titans threw 45 times for 389 yards…Firkser got 5 catches for 51 yards. Nice, but not like ‘wow’! Jonnu Smith was dying for the last 7 weeks, so there’s not much fantasy action for Firkser in Jonnu’s place. If Jonnu returns next week, then they all go back to TE2-3s. If Jonnu is out again…Firkser still isn’t a reliable play for most.

 

------------------------------

 

FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS…

*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*

 -- Trade deadlines are mostly past, but some have open trading still. Going to start focusing more and more on Dynasty trades down the stretch.

 

*NO ‘BUY LOW’ THIS WEEK*

Most all trade deadlines are done. We’ll be talking about Dynasty players to trade for/away in the game reports, as needed…and we really start looking at trade scenarios in the Dynasty Offseason with FFM.

 

-------------------------

 

FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS…

*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or values thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*

 

*NO ‘SELL HIGH’ THIS WEEK*

Most all trade deadlines are done. We’ll be talking about Dynasty players to trade for/away in the game reports, as needed…and we really start looking at trade scenarios in the Dynasty Offseason with FFM.

 

------------------------------

 

FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS…

*Total flyer/lowly owned or not-owned players

 

1) WR Randall Cobb, HOU

Expected back Week 15, but he could be coming back at a time when Brandin Cooks is gone (along with Fuller and Stills) and thus he’s a #1-2 WR for the offense out of necessity. Weeks 15 indoors v. IND, Week 16 indoors hosting CIN.  

 

2) TE Logan Thomas, WSH

Looking for TE help anywhere you can find it? Thomas still has to play vs. PIT tonight…and that may be not a great game for him, so he stays below the radar…but he’s been playing well enough otherwise of late -- and is being used to run the ball out of a wildcat and throw passes (a former 2nd-round pick QB) lately too.

 

3) TE Will Dissly, SEA

For non-PPR owners…Will Dissly has played 11 games in his career without Greg Olsen around/active and working 50%+ of the snaps with Russell Wilson. In those 11 games, Dissly has 6 TDs. He scores TDs with Russ. After nothing with Olsen out Week 12, Dissly got 4 catches for 28 yards Week 13...a step in the right direction.

 

4) WR Collin Johnson, JAX

Feels like Mike Glennon’s #1 most comfortable throw right now. If Laviska Shenault is out again…Johnson goes in as a starter and might see the most targets of any JAX WR in Week 14. He was 2nd among all Jags’ players in targets Week 13 (6 targets), despite not starting.

 

5) RB Josh Adams, NYJ

If Frank Gore misses time, Ty Johnson will get the lead role first…but, as he did in Week 13, Adams will get touches – and if he outshines Ty, Adams might get more work and more chances as we go through this season. He deserves it because he is the most talented RB the Jets have, but they are not aware of that…even with Adams coming in Week 13 and just gashing the Raiders at times.

I’d bet against any of this happening, but at least it’s less of a pipe dream by me today.

 

---------------------------------

 

 -- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --

 

1) RB Kerryon Johnson, DET

‘New’ head coach Week 13, and even less work for Kerryon…every one of the Lions head coaches in 2020 doesn’t like Kerryon. I keep thinking that they could have used him for some split work with AP while Swift is out…but they barely used him Week 13. He’s FF-useless, especially with Swift returning.

 

2) RB Josh Kelley, LAC

Kalen Ballage was back this week…and Kelley all but yielded all the Ekeler-relief touches to Ballage. Anthony Lynn hates Kelley for whatever reason. If Lynn gets fired this week, then maybe I’ll reassess this.

 

3) WR Travis Fulgham, PHI

He has disappeared since Reagor returned, and when Wentz started dying…and when/if Hurts takes over at QB, Fulgham is not the kind of WR who would flourish with Hurts. All angles of this are bad for the sudden star of a few weeks ago.

 

4) RB Jordan Wilkins, IND

Has fallen to the deep #3 RB in the weird/useless Indy RBBC. I guess if you want him as a Jon Taylor ‘cuff’…but Wilkins sucks anyway, so not a great play regardless.

 

5) WR Keelan Cole, JAX

I like the player, I just don’t like this situation – Glennon has no cohesion with Cole, or anyone but Collin Johnson and kinda Tyler Eifert.

 

--------------------------------

 

 -- STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS --

 

1) 49ers-DST

This defense looks a thousand times better with Richard Sherman paired with a Comeback Player of the Year candidate, CB Jason Verrett. Weeks 14-15 is facing two of the worst O-Lines, most sackable teams in the league.

Week 14 = v. WSH

Week 15 = at DAL

Week 16 = at ARI

 

2) Browns-DST

A lot to play for now…a for-sure playoff team with another win, and they have the two New York teams Weeks 15-16 – solid matchups for a mediocre/OK Cleveland-DST that gets support from their run game on offense.

I would have a LOT more confidence in this play Weeks 14-15 IF Denzel Ward is back, their best defensive player/shut down type corner.

Week 14 = v. BAL

Week 15 = at NYG

Week 16 = at NYJ

 

3) Cowboys-DST

Not a great defense, but not the worst either…it’s the schedule that matters – at Cincy could be against Ryan Finley…and that’s a good thing for any DST. Week 15 should be against Nick Mullens…that’s a possible start, but you fear Kyle Shanahan and the weapons. Week 16 vs. Philly could work vs. Wentz but is shaky if vs. Jalen Hurts.

Week 14 = at CIN

Week 15 = v. SF

Week 16 = v. PHI

 

4) Cardinals-DST

This defense is sneaky decent/good, they’ve just played some good offenses of late to hide it.

There’s an opportunity Weeks 14-16. The Cardinals will be in a dogfight for the wild card, so this defense will be motivated.

Week 14 = at NYG (nice)

Week 15 = PHI (up in the air if Hurts not Wentz…we want Wentz)

Week 16 = SF (could be OK especially if SF out of the playoffs)

 

5) Bucs-DST

This was one of the best DSTs in fantasy the 1st-half of the season and then they fell apart, but also note they’ve been whacked by NO-LAR-KC – not easy matchups. The next three weeks they face ‘easier’ matchups. Not great matchups, but ‘good’.

Week 14 = v. MIN

Week 15 = at ATL

Week 16 = at DET

 

6) Giants-DST

Not a great schedule ahead, but totally terrible. They’re on here because their defense is great as a unit, and that’s worth something facing a bunch of middle of the road offenses.

Week 14 = v. ARI

Week 15 = v. CLE

Week 16 = at BAL

 

7) Panthers-DST

This is all about Week 14 hosting Denver. My worry is – what the Panthers’ motivations are with the season/playoffs basically over. However, with Arizona losing the (8-8) teams are not totally dead. Carolina needs to win out to be in that (8-8) group…it starts with a win over Denver. That may be too far fetched, but…

Week 14 = v. DEN

Week 15 = at GB

Week 16 = a WSH

 

8) Texans-DST

A very shaky defense, BUT the Texans have Week 14 v. CHI and then Week 16 v. CIN…those are some prime matchups.

Week 14 = at CHI

Week 15 = at IND

Week 16 = v. CIN

 

9) Titans-DST

A very erratic defense but facing Jacksonville is worth some consideration…and then facing the Lions could be low level/desperate-useful.  

Week 14 = at JAX

Week 15 = v. DET

Week 16 = at GB

 

-------------------

 

 -- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --

 

1) Kenneth Murray, LAC

He might be getting ready to ‘happen’…

14 tackles in Week 13, and 8.7 tackles per game the past three weeks…his best pace/outputs of the season. He’s VERY talented. It might have ‘begun’.

 

2) LB Troy Reeder, LAR

Just to note on him again…every time Micah Kizer is out, Reeder fills in with 10+ tackles. Third time in 3 spot starts. Reeder will start again Week 14 as well.

 

3) SAF Josh Jones, JAX

He missed the last month with an injury, and before that he was really doing well – averaging 7.6 total tackles per game. He returned from the injury this week/Week 13…and posted another 10-tackle game (7 solos). He’s been a very steady, high tackle count guy in 2020.

 

4) SAF Jayron Kearse, DET

Weeks 1-8 = 2.7 tackles per game

Weeks 9-13 = 7.0 tackles per game

He’s become a starter and a decent producer the last 5 weeks, and under the new coach he was still starting…so all things pointing up for Kearse.

 

5) LB David Mayo, NYG

Blake Martinez got hurt late in the Seattle game. We don’t know how bad, as of this writing. If Blake is out, Mayo might be the natural fill-in and good for 10+ tackle potential. Only matters if Martinez is out.

 

6) DE Steven Means, ATL

Where he has come from…I do not know? For the first few weeks of 2020, he wasn’t even active. Then he’s been a bit player most of the season. The past two weeks he has 3.0 sacks total…against two of the better O-Lines/tougher QBs to get to. I will watch in more detail during the week, but something is happening here.

 

Good luck on Monday Night (2x) and Tuesday Night Football!!!

 

Me watching the KC-DEN game – initial unbridled enthusiasm and then the growing depression with every failed KC red zone effort and every lost Tyreek and Mahomes TD connection: https://youtu.be/TfE93xON8jk



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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