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  2020 Week 2 Analysis: Lions @ Packers (By Ross Jacobs)

Date:
September 25, 2020

Ross Jacobs has been an FFM correspondent on NFL games and NFL Draft matters for the past few years. He is going to be writing up some of his notes on various games he’s watching/studying this year. Typically, he will have written/submitted his work before mine, so this is a look at the same game with different eyes...and you can compare and contrast or find some new takeaways.


  2020 Week 2 Analysis: Lions @ Packers (By Ross Jacobs)


-This is two weeks now that the Packers have blown out their opponent, and I have not been particularly impressed with them either week. They aren't bad by any means, but I think there's a minor mirage going on here making them look better than they actually are.


-It was 17-14 Packers going into halftime. Detroit couldn't slow down Green Bay, but Green Bay wasn't doing a whole lot defensively either. Aaron Jones rips off an 80 yard TD, and suddenly the Packers are up 10. Detroit gets the ball at their own 5 yard line, and Chandon Sullivan makes a play on the ball for an easy pick 6. Two plays and Detroit is now down by 17. They never could recover after that.


-Now I have no doubts the Packers are a better team than Detroit, but they aren't 21 points better. And they aren't going to score 40 points a game the rest of the season either. They have a pretty decent offense, but facing the Vikings and Lions crappy defenses will make anyone look better than they are.


-I'm not sure how Aaron Jones keeps scoring TD's, but you might as well roll with it. He did nothing special in this game, certainly not on his 80 yard run, but the guy has been a scoring machine for a while now. I'd be an idiot to keep fighting it. On that run in particular he merely followed his blocks, sprang through a wide open hole, and both safeties took bad angles and whiffed on the tackle. There's dozens of NFL RB's that could have made that play, but somehow Aaron Jones is the one that keeps doing it and now every Green Bay fan thinks he deserves McCaffrey treament. Unreal.


-I made a note when watching Detroit's week 1 game against the Bears that I suspected they might have a weak run defense. I didn't want to jump to conclusions because it was a small sample size, but it was definitely confirmed here. It's bad. No ifs ands or buts. Things like this are never the fault of one player, but there is one guy that stands out as particularly awful against the run, and that's former 1st round pick Jarrad Davis. I noticed several times where he was easily blocked out of a play or just missed his tackle. Either way it's a problem, and I highly recommend you target this defense in fantasy.


-Detroit is a bad team. That's pretty obvious. But I don't think they're as bad as many think. They were better than the Bears before blowing the game late, and they were hanging just fine with the Packers until those two wild plays swung the game out of reach. They aren't going to the playoffs, but they shouldn't be basement dwellers either.


-The Packers are riding high at the moment thinking Aaron Rodgers is back to his 2010 form, but I think this team is in for a bit of a surprise come playoff time. They have a fairly easy schedule this year so I have no doubts they'll win the NFC North with a nice record, but I don't believe this team is going to be one of the real elite threats. They aren't better than a healthy New Orleans or Tampa Bay, maybe even the Cardinals, Rams, or Cowboys. They're probably about the 4th or 5th best NFC team when all is said and done, no matter what their record says.


-Fantasy Notes:


-Keep riding Aaron Jones while he's producing. He's still losing some touches to Jamaal Williams, but he's also scoring at a ridiculous pace. Don't fix what isn't broken.


-Allen Lazard is too good to be seeing as few targets as he does. He's twice the receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling is, but the Packers seem to like MVS better for whatever reason. Unless an injury happens to Adams or MVS your Lazard stock is going to be inconsistent.


-Everyone went crazy proclaiming Aaron Rodgers was back for fantasy, but note he only completed 60% of his passes for 240 yards and 2 TD's which is solid but nowhere near his huge week 1 against a terrible Vikings secondary. In fact these numbers are right in line with what he typically produces the past few years. I don't think Rodgers is going to hang with the elite mobile QB's this year. He'll be top 8-10, but you could do better. If you can flip him for Kyler I would do it. If you have him though I'd be looking for someone else to start on weeks where the Packers play Tampa Bay and New Orleans.



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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