2020 Week 4: Three Things from Sunday Night Games + Top 5’s Waivers/Buy-Sell/Sleepers/DST/IDPs
No long intro here…I hope.
Surveying across FFM-land it’s too early to tell how the general ‘body’ is doing because so much of it is resting upon the KC-NE game tonight (hopefully played) and a little on GB-ATL.
It wasn’t a bad week at all, and it looks like with a good+ Mahomes and/or Tyreek and/or KC-DST performance…we could be really soaring with two back-to-back huge FFM win weeks. But I have to wait until 10-11pmET or so to start celebrating or crying. If the game is just up and cancelled last second, then my FF-world would collapse for the week.
If the players hit their projections tonight in KC-NE, then my projections/tracking of FF-things says we’ll see a nice 65-70% win-rate across the board. Could be as low as 50% if a disaster strikes, could be another 75-80%+ win rate week if Mahomes goes off a little and/or the KC-DST has a top 5 DST type week. All things there is true/real ‘hope’ for.
The early tracking is most FFM-based teams are (2-2)…followed by more (3-1) than (1-3)…and (0-4) has almost become instinct in my tracking, but there are those out there.
I will give a mini-sermon for (1-3) teams, (0-4) teams – as bad as it looks, it’s not over.
If Week 4 taught us anything it’s that things change radically by the day. Your team may really suck, and Sean McVay is killing you, and it all looks bleak ahead…but then a COVID thing hits out of nowhere and schedules shift and things happen, and you might get a lucky win in Week 5 – which buys you lasting another round in this fight. With one more week of life you might stumble into the next big thing at RB, make a killer WR trade at just the right time, an injury hits a player you don’t have but that launches one you do have forward.
This is not a pure battle of football prowess and knowledge in 2020…it’s a war of attrition. A game of FF-reaction.
Players are getting hurt at shocking rates (and always in the 1st-quarter…it’s weird). It’s a chess game of decision making in crisis – the right or lucky sit-start, the deepest benches, the smartest scouting on lesser-known guys. The stick-to-itiveness. We’ve only played 4 games…with 8-9-10 more to go until the FF-playoffs. Things are changing on a dime.
You are not going to win in FF 2020 via great football scouting alone…because COVID and general injury can come in and take it all away in a flash.
You are going to win by great poker playing…and ‘great’ in terms of – you have 33% of the chips in Texas Hold ‘Em and your remaining opponent has 67% of them. Statistically speaking, they have the advantage…but you then play things differently when you’re the short stack and you can grind and turn a 33/67 disadvantage to 40/60 and then to 50/50…and then it’s a whole new ballgame and strategy.
You’re not going to make a comeback, draw this back to 50/50 to battle from even odds, if you look at the poker table, see you have 33% and your opponent has 67%...and you just flip the table over and fly into a rage about your bad luck.
Keep your head. Others in your league are panicking…take advantage. Out last, out maneuver. You can’t take (1-3) and turn it into a (4-0) future bye for the playoffs team all in one week. You need to chip away with persistence. All you can do is play to win this week.
(1-3) teams are most likely one game behind (2-2) with 8-9-10 games left. Honestly, that’s nothing. It’s not preferred…but it’s a drop in the bucket. We gotta make the playoffs and then it’s a whole new season.
(1-3) teams or (0-4) teams that are two games behind the playoffs. Win next week and you might just be one game out of the last playoff spot with 7-8-9 games to go. It’s not terminal…but you do need oxygen.
It’s not over…it just feels that way when we lose in a given week and you have more players on I.R. than active. You can have fun playing the (bad) cards you’re dealt…or you can cry and fold and definitely lose. You already spent your money…why not try to play it all out.
You wouldn’t let your kids quit on anything that’s down for the moment but is in reach with a little ‘grit’ and effort. But you’ll hate football this entire week and write off the entire FF season because some football players didn’t do what you wanted or got their game postponed or you faced George Kittle and some people in your league are ragging on you (oh, the horror) – hey, if you’re (1-3) and (0-4)…we shouldn’t be having parades thrown for us. Change your team name to the ‘0-13 Express’ and join in the laughter at your current plight -- but be deviously plotting on the inside with a poker face on the outside.
Sometimes you have to play possum before you launch the comeback… https://youtu.be/GYcPK3FwTB8
(2-2), (3-1), (4-0) teams…the job is not finished. COVID or injuries can turn on you too – keep pruning the squad, making smart waivers, and take a lesson from all the (1-3) or (0-4) messages of ‘don’t panic’…truth is, most are not going to listen and panic anyway. Most in your league aren’t getting any messages of staying the course…so there are the quitting/panicked, the weak-willed, the run-from-a-fight owners. Go forth and prosper off their panic. Now is the time… https://youtu.be/bPXB6w0LL7c
Good luck in the games tonight!!!
-- Here’s Three Things/quick notes that caught my attention from each Sunday game (subject to change as I rewatch all this week) --
-- How close are we to Tua? Probably three weeks or more away. Brian Flores best chance to get into the playoffs this year (remember this is the mind of Flores) is with the experience of Ryan Fitzpatrick (29-45 for 315 yards, 0 TDs/2 INT, 6-47-1).
I think Flores will wait until it’s past obvious and then Tua is coming in – and it isn’t going to be good. Partly because Tua’s not likely instant impact, but even if he’s ready (because the NFL is easier than college, look at the scoring in the NFL and look at what other good rookie QBs are doing instantly) he has to play surrounded by this Miami mess – no run game, no O-Line, weak WRs.
Fitz was in a great spot for a big game against the #32 pass defense of Seattle…and he got 300+ yards passing but blew several end zone TD chances and ended with no passing TDs and a ton of FGs. Fortunately, he rushed for a TD to save the FF day from being a disaster.
-- Back in Week 3…Miami-DST really sat on the Jags. Week 4…they held Russell Wilson to his lowest game of explosion of the year, and really bottled up the Seattle WRs. All that happening without top CB Byron Jones. When Jones comes back – this dreadful Miami team/offense may play into the hands of the defense being decent against the Denver’s and Jets ahead (they play those two teams 3x in the next 8 weeks).
-- Greg Olsen (5-35-0/7) got shutout vs. NE Week 2 but in his other three games this season: 4.7 rec., 40.0 yards, 0.33 TDs per game…useful as needed.
-- Welcome back D.J. Chark (8-95-2/9)…finally…just in the nick of time. We needed this in the mayhem week. He played great. However, I didn’t see Minshew wearing him out, and Gardner was throwing to Chris Conley (3-44-0/4) instead early in the game…but eventually the tide turned and DJC+Minshew popped.
-- Joe Mixon (25-151-2, 6-30-1/6) finally had ‘that game’. Everything he did looked like the last three weeks…just this week he got more work and had his big game. Now, the question is – is this the time to trade him/sell him ‘high’?
-- The game stats/box score favored Gardner Minshew (351 yards, 2 TDs/2 INT) but Joe Burrow (25-36 for 300 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) played the better game. I don’t like the way Minshew has looked the past two weeks at all. I need to go back and re-look at Weeks 1-2 for confirmation of an issue unfolding (that’s he more mediocre in this offense than an upside hopeful). Minshew doesn’t look as freewheeling as last season, his ball release looks stiff, and his decision making is ridiculous on where he tries to go with the ball (why is he bothering to throw to Chris Conley?).
Based on the last two weeks, and how bad of a team/coaching plan group they are – I’d start not-trusting Minshew too much ahead. Start finding better alternatives for a #2 QB or look at deals to make where someone may love the ‘mustache’ story. He’s not killing anyone, yet, but I’m looking for some star power…and I’m not seeing him going to the next level in year two. He could grow. He could be dinged up the last two weeks and we don’t know it. Just…something doesn’t look right. Burrow looks so much better.
-- Speaking of terrible QBs…none look worse to me (from guys who are considered good or great) than Deshaun Watson (20-33 for 300 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 5-9-0). No energy at all. Not really running the ball nor seeming to have any desire to. He had a decent 3rd-quarter and put up some stats vs. a soft prevent late, but when it mattered in-game he was about useless. Four games this year, played well for a half at Pittsburgh last week and had a good quarter here – but been pretty bad all season otherwise.
Mitch Trubisky looked this bad and he paid the price with his job. Watson looks just as bad in 2020…and Bill O’Brien will pay the price.
This was supposed to be a great matchup for Houston’s passing game. It didn’t look that way watching it.
-- Speaking of terrible…David Johnson (16-63-0, 2-29-0/3). Another week of nowhere to run and no design for him in the passing game. He’s having the same problem Joe Mixon had Weeks 1-3. Whether it’s a DJ issue or a Houston issue – doesn’t matter. We got four games to scout and it is what it is…15 +/- carries, less than 100 yards rushing, little purpose in the pass game, hoping for TD shots = he’s a regular old RB2.
This was supposed to be an easy matchup…but he again had nowhere to run and Houston isn’t driving to the goal line area much. He got stuffed twice on goal line shots mid game. Looks like another painful watch every week hoping he gets FF opportunity. There’s nothing interesting or unique or clever in the way they are using him at all.
-- Justin Jefferson (4-103-0/5) had his second 100+ yard game in-a-row, but this one is a little less exciting compared to last week…but still 100+ is good. JJ looks terrific…looks like Stefon Diggs reborn – but Mike Zimmer wants to get ahead and run, so when they can do that J.J.’s targets will be lower. Fortunately, for JJ owners…Minnesota is not likely to get up on teams and be able to sit on them.
-- Michael Gallup (2-29-0/5) is the odd man out in this offense. Yes, he had a big Week 3…but two duds prior to that. Now a dud here. Even the Week 3 event…it came on late in a bunch. Dallas is scoring a million points…and Gallup is rarely in the mix on things.
-- 49 points by CLE against a dying Dallas defense…and Baker Mayfield (19-30 for 165 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) has just 165 yards passing…his third under 200 yards passing game of the season. 291 yards passing is his high. Sell high all this nonsense from the Browns passing game.
-- I liked D’Ernest Johnson (13-95-0) from his preseason a couple seasons ago, he reminded me of a discount Alvin Kamara…however, I thought he’d go M.I.A. like most UDFA RBs who are buried deep on depth charts. Welp, he got a moment here – so glad for him. If Nick Chubb (6-43-0) is out for some time, we’ll see if Johnson is something to chase this week.
-- J.K. Dobbins (5-16-0, 1-1-0/2) was not a part of this game with any real purpose. I thought last week’s falling flat might force change…absolutely no sign of it here.
-- If there were a QB change coming, I think Dwayne Haskins (32-45 for 314 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) would have been pulled 2nd-half to set the table for the change. He wasn’t. Alex Smith was not active, so even if a change comes it might be Kyle Allen. But it looks like Haskins has another week.
-- J.D. McKissic (2-6-0, 7-40-0/8) finally got in some kind of sync with Haskins in the 2-minute offense passing game and had a really nice stat line. He can be this kind of RB with more consistency with a better/smoother QB.
-- OK, we’ve seen four games so far…which is enough to start declaring stuff. It’s obvious the Lions passing game is nothing like 2019, and thus Matt Stafford (17-31 for 206 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) is a QB2 you cannot count on for huge efforts/consistency. I mean, this was at home against a pass defense missing both its starting corners…and all we get 206 yards passing and barely 50% Comp. Pct. (after starting hot with a 14-0 lead)?
-- I’ll take Kenny Golladay (4-63-1/8) from this offense…and you can have everything else. KG has been back for two games and scored a TD each game, but he hasn’t been the explosive KG from 2019 yet…and this passing game might not be able to make it pop like 2019.
-- Once Michael Thomas is back, run from Emmanuel Sanders (6-93-0/9) and Tre’Quan Smith (4-54-2/4).
-- Another week, another ‘I’m worried about Kyler’ game. Kyler Murray (24-31 for 133 yards, 2 TDs/ 0 INT, 6-78-0) is having very good FF games, but he’s not having very good NFL games…and thus the team is fading away after a hot (2-0) start. Like I said last week…if I can get Josh Allen+ a nice item for Kyler, I do it. We’ll explore this more in the game reports.
-- All our fears on Andy Isabella (2-3-0/3)…happened just the way we feared – little used/look at/planned on. Both Hopkins-Kirk were active Week 4, so you can move on…until Isabella is starting, he’s just a random event heart-breaker.
-- As I was saying the last two weeks – Robby Anderson (8-99-0/11) is Teddy’s guy. That’s not even a question now. D.J. Moore (4-49-0/6) looks very ‘out of it’ in this offense.
-- This game will remembered this week as the game Tom Brady (30-46 for 369 yards, 5 TDs/1 INT) threw for 5 TDs, but it should known as the game Justin Herbert (20-25 for 290 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 5-14-0) became a confirmed future star QB…and the future is nearly ‘now’.
I was hoping he’d have a down/hidden game this week to pounce on for Dynasty, but you’re either going to have to pay the price…or wait for Anthony Lynn to give the job back to Tyrod for a week or two.
-- Austin Ekeler’s (2-12-0, 1-2-0/1) injury looks like it could be a couple week’s issue. Anthony Lynn will split Joshua Kelley (9-7-0, 3-26-0/3) and Justin Jackson (6-9-0, 2-12-0/2) to some degree (80/20, 70/30, 50/50?) until Ekeler returns – Lynn is committed to a dual RB rotation/offense.
-- Ronald Jones (20-111-0, 6-17-0/9) was really on the brink of a huge game but the three passes he didn’t catch were flat-out drops. He left 3 catches for 30+ yards on the table AND his drops forced Bruce Arians to put Ke’Shawn Vaughn (3-4-0, 2-22-1/3) in on passing moments, and KV vultured some FF points away.
Jones looked very good otherwise…Leonard Fournette will be hard-pressed to be more than a backup ahead, unless Jones gets hurt.
-- I have no answer to why Sean McVay turned to Malcolm Brown (9-37-0, 5-19-0/6) heavy and iced Darrell Henderson (8-22-0, 1-6-0/1). I can only say, “Of course he did.” Why wouldn’t we believe NFL head coaches will run from success and run to ‘their guy’, even if it costs them the game – and the Rams are very lucky that they did not lose to the Giants here. Part of the reason why they should’ve lost…Brown wasn’t doing much to help move the ball, and that kept the Giants in it.
If we think this is bad now…wait until Cam Akers can play. Darrell Henderson’s last two weeks of performance (before this game) proves that there is no merit system in the NFL. Producers producing at a high level (the holy PFF rated DH the #1 graded RB in the NFL coming into the game) does not mean they will get more opportunity or win jobs.
Jason Katz says it best…”Sean McVay hates Darrell Henderson.” No sense trying to figure it out, I guess. My mistake is trying to chase talent. I need to adjust to ‘coach’s love’ guys.
-- Remember when Tyler Higbee (3-21-0/4) was destroying defenses and putting up historic numbers late last year? Sean McVay doesn’t. Higbee has become a random TE1…there is no sign of the offense pushing him to another level.
McVay ‘taking out’/ignoring Higbee and Henderson destroyed many a Week 4 wins for me this week. And has me reeling into Week 5 on what to do. We’ll talk about it on the LAR-NYG report…that’s #1 this week.
-- The Giants defense is not bad…not bad at all. It is giving opponents fits if their offense can get any time of possession. Held LAR to 2.5 yards per carry here…and NYG is now the #4 run defense in the NFL in lowest yards per carry allowed after this week. They held Goff to 200 yards and the Rams held to just 17 points.
I say this not to push them as a DST option (but they are possible sleeper streamers on great matchups) but to note that NYG is not an easy matchup for your opposing RB or your #1 WR (James Bradberry is playing very well).
-- Josh Jacobs (15-48-03-25-0/4) has been reduced to a painful watch RB2 because defenses are stacking Jon Gruden’s offense and daring Derek Carr (4-20-0/10) to beat them…and that’s smart. Jacobs now falls into the same bucket as David Johnson and Jonathan Taylor…talented RBs with nowhere to run/escape the stacked defense.
-- Hunter Renfrow (5-57-0/8) didn’t have the best stat line, and I’m not sure he can find consistency with this Raiders passing game…but I have to see he is an excellent WR. A real pro. He could be doing so much more for LV. I’m stunned out how good he is at that ‘Edelman/Welker’ type role.
-- I was hoping for a Josh Allen (24-34 for 288 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs, 3-1-1) muted/down game here to be able to consider making big moves for him, and I started acquiring last week and will go for more this week…but I’m going to have to pay, but pay I should. He’s playing the best football (and Russell Wilson) as anyone in the NFL.
-- The Colts have a major problem on their hands…Philip Rivers (16-29 for 190 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is ‘shot’, so this offense is dreadful despite a great O-Line. Frank Reich may have to make a decision down the road to switch to Jacoby Brissett at this rate. But, as long as the Colts are winning…no change will happen. A change will only happen if the Colts lose a few games in a row behind Rivers coughing up turnovers.
-- Because Philip Rivers is horrific, the defenses know it and are crowding up to play the run…so Jonathan Taylor (17-68-0, 1-11-0/1) cannot find any space to run. You just have to roll with it and hope you get enough short TD opportunities to get good FF scoring…but Rivers is so bad he’s not going to get them into scoring position as much as you want.
-- Another waste of time game for David Montgomery (10-27-0, 3-30-0/6). We’re on high alert for Le’Veon Bell to wind up here next week or two.
-- Some seasons your schedule had you facing the George Kittle team Week 2 or 3…when he wasn’t playing.
Some seasons your schedule had you facing the George Kittle team Week 4 when he has 15 catches for 183 yards and 1 TD.
How are you supposed to process that…or get overly mad about your FF prowess when sometimes the schedule is not your friend?
Some of you own Kittle…and this was the salvation moment of the season. Fantasy Football can be a delight in-between stretches of daily agony.
-- Philly is now in ‘1st-place’, so the Jalen Hurts (3-18-0) watch drops down a few notches. It will be now several weeks until it will be considered. Carson Wentz (18-28 for 193 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 7-37-1) just bought himself more time…and maybe the whole season because the NFC East is so bad.
-- Gone was the Jerick McKinnon (14-54-1, 7-43-0/8) split with Jeff Wilson (3-6-0, 1-13-0/1) from Week 3. McKinnon still doesn’t look like the same player as he was before his two knee surgeries, who would, but he’s the guy until Raheem Mostert returns…probably Week 6. McKinnon is a green light for Week 5…an RB1 projection, I’m sure v. Miami.
===== FIVE PLAYERS… =====
**NOTE: Tuesday Night Waiver Madness Video Q&A 8:00-9:30pmET, where we will go over more of all these things (below) every Tuesday night**
Five Waivers To Trust…
*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.
**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)
***FAAB % mentioned at any time below is based on a 17-20 man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.
1) Josh Kelley, LAC (A-/B+)
I think Austin Ekeler did some real damage to himself Sunday. I was watching that particular play and it was reported as a hamstring at first, but I knew it was more than that from the replay – it’s also a hyper-extended knee. He’s set to miss 2-3 games at least – and this injury is not great for an RB to just quick bounce back from.
Josh Kelley is a very good NFL RB and is not in the prime Ekeler role on a team that wants to run…but also know the head coach wants to ‘split’ touches, so Kelley may not get ALL the gold.
Kelley is a bit of an all-in FAAB move for desperate teams – you’re getting a strong RB2, possible RB1 for 3+ games. What that is worth to you is for you to answer…might be all-in…it might be all-in for someone else in the league. Hard to say how high…but it’s going to be pretty high.
2) Chase Edmonds, ARI (B/B-)
The waiver ranking, the price, the priority on this depends upon the news on Kenyan Drake’s in-game injury. He may be fine, and maybe the reports end up he’s ‘questionable’ all week but not ‘down and out for weeks’.
However, I think Drake is about to go on an endangered species list with Kliff Kingsbury. The same way he turned on David Johnson last year…it could be coming with Drake. Chase Edmonds is about to move to a 50/50 split or takeover...at least, I think that window is opening – and it’s been opening the past two weeks.
I want him as a ‘takeover’ investment…and I pray not to get caught up in the ‘handcuff’/Drake is injured bidding that prices this past where I want to go.
The FAAB percentage, if Edmonds is even out there in your league (he’s 50/50 nationally owned), is going to move on the Drake injury news, which we’ll see what that is tonight/Tuesday.
3) D’Ernest Johnson, CLE (C+)
Another situation where ‘it depends’ upon how bad the injury news is here with Nick Chubb. All I can tell you now is…D’Ernest Johnson is a Alvin Kamara-like UDFA back – slithery, high effort, elusive, good in the passing game. He would be in a 70/30 or 60/40 split (or so) with Hunt, if Chubb is out.
This reinforces why owning both Chubb-Hunt was so important…when one goes down, the other is an RB1 instantly, and were strong RB2s without the injury.
The FAAB percentage, or waiver priority all depends on the Chubb news we might not get until Monday night/Tuesday.
Dontrell Hilliard, the Browns other backup RB…is no slouch either, so Johnson may end up fighting him for touches in all this as well. But in Week 4…they leaned on D’Ernest.
4) Dalton Schultz, DAL (C-)
I’m the fool. I thought Schultz was not ready for a decent role for the Cowboys…that there would be the three main WRs + Zeke -- and that Schultz would be a #5 option. Well, he’s running a close #3 right now…as Lamb is hit and miss, and Gallup is the new #5/ignored.
Need TE help/depth? He’s one to consider in a high output passing game. Be careful you don’t get too Drew Sample’d here. It’s not like Schultz is a future star talent…he’s having a good moment.
5) Tim Patrick, DEN (D+)
Arguably will be the Broncos #1 WR for the rest of the season…on a bad passing game, but someone has to get touches. He’s a very discounted Courtland Sutton.
6) Tee Higgins, CIN (D+)
I’ll expand more on this in the CIN-JAX report, but Higgins is becoming the strong #2 connection with Joe Burrow and that’s going to be some stable WR2-3 work all year now. A.J. Green is D.O.A. Higgins is taking over behind Boyd.
7) Kirk Cousins (D)
If your fantasy season is falling off a cliff, and you need the paddles applied to your heart to revive you – Kirk Cousins is playing at SEA and hosting ATL the next two weeks. Seattle is #32 in pass defense (by yards) this season and Atlanta may be bottom 3-5 by the time MNF is over.
Five Waivers To Distrust…
1) Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB
This is the Ronald Jones show with Leonard Fournette soon to be the 3rd-down back because Jones can’t catch well in normal pass patterns outside screens. Vaughn has little chance to rise here.
2) Mo Alie-Cox, IND
One catch Week 4…but for one TD. He still has a presence in FF because of the TD. But Philip Rivers is the most ‘shot’ QB in the NFL and this passing game is going in a dumpster and they desperately tried to get just activated Trey Burton going this week.
There are WAY too many headwinds for MAC.
3) Jeff Smith, NYJ
Great debut, but with Crowder back and Perriman returning and Mims about to be active – there’s little room for Smith to follow up his sweet TNF Week 4.
4) Eric Ebron, PIT
Nice Week 3, postponed Week 4…is he TE relief for the TE weary? I wouldn’t bet much on it. Too many WRs for Ben to use. Ebron is a TE2/bye week flyer…not an emerging to TE1 hopeful.
5) Malcolm Brown, LAR
The Darrell Henderson killer…inexplicably. We’ll get into that in the LAR-NYG report, but Brown can only go so far with DHendo around and Cam Akers returning. Brown cannot be trusted anymore than any RB on the Rams right now. Thanks, Sean McVay!!!
Five Buy Low Players…
*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*
1) Josh Allen, BUF
The price will not be LOW, but I think in some instances it could be lower than it should be. Not everyone believes in Josh Allen…they have a feeling they might be ‘selling high’ to you. No QB is playing/throwing the ball any better than Allen right now…maybe Mahomes and Wilson are, but that’s it. You can’t acquire Mahomes or Wilson, but Allen…maybe.
This is a big, bold move to try to get a high firepower fantasy QB or die trying.
The network pregame shows were laced with a lot of ‘Josh Allen is for real’ talk, but it was because people (including the analysts) don’t believe it…it’s the underlying Josh Allen thought for people – that this bubble could burst. If you can find someone like that…Allen looks like an absolute fantasy monster on suddenly one of the highest scoring offenses in the NFL.
Acquisition Valuation? QB1 pricing for sure but might be able to trade a Kyler Murray and get Allen + a nice ____. Maybe your Aaron Rodgers + ___ for Allen. Or Cam Newton + ___ for Allen if someone is into Cam, if he’s going to play Week 5 for sure.
2) Raheem Mostert, SF
Probably Week 6 is his return, but when he’s back…he’s the lead dog on the offense with the best run blocking in the league. People are selling him because they can’t use him now, and they need help immediately. You could pay a discounted price and sit on him for a week or two waiting for him to come back.
Acquisition Valuation? Trying to get it down to like a RB2 value to try to acquire. RB 1.75 at best to ‘buy low’. Remember, you might have to wait two more weeks.
3) Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
In 6pts per pass TD, trying to find the next breakout/high powered passing game – it may be the Steelers. When Ben has a trio of Diontae-JuJu-Claypool, he’ll have the best WR group of talent in the NFL. You’d have to think they’ll run with that…and not just run the ball safely. This passing game could be as good as there is in the NFL ahead because of the weapons.
Acquisition Valuation? High-end QB2 is what you want to pay, not pay fair pricing…if the current owner has him as a backup/isn’t strongly tied to him he could be had fairly easily in the right deal mix.
For those that are into stacks – this is a sneaky stack together (in the future, or possibly much sooner) in Ben-Diontae-Claypool.
4) John Brown, BUF
Put up a zero Week 3 because he got hurt. Had a muted 4-42-0/5 line this week, but in that he missed a TD by an inch/a bad review call. Had he scored a TD…it would have been a TD scored every full game he’s played this season – the #2 WR option on a sudden top 5 offense, You want in on that, and the Brown price is down on low performances the last two weeks – but that’s a head fake.
Acquisition Valuation? WR2-2.5 to try to steal.
5) Justin Herbert, LAC (Dynasty/SFlex…not redraft, per se)
He’s not dirt cheap but keep an ear out for Anthony Lynn proclaiming Tyrod going back in to start – then it’s time to try to acquire Herbert IF you’re in need of re-doing your QB depth chart. Herbert is a star of the future…a kinda Josh Allen/2020 potential.
Acquisition Valuation? Back-end QB1 Dynasty valuation. Hoping you deal with a team that doesn’t appreciate him as much and doesn’t really ‘need’ him.
6) Diontae Johnson, PIT
A week removed from a nothing FF game and then BYE this week…absence without a great production lately does not make the heart grow fonder for FF owners. His price is sliding a bit. It was flying high after Week 2, but now it’s going back down to more realistic values…maybe.
Acquisition Valuation? WR1.5-2.0 to buy low…it’s not ‘buy’ at any price. If you can’t get the deal you want, walk away for another day.
Five Sell High Players…
*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or values thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*
1) Odell Beckham Jr, CLE
OBJ owners…this is what you’ve been waiting for – a crazy good FF game against a high-profile opponent in a highly watched game. You gotta sell now or you have only yourself to blame. IND and PIT coming up will put him back in his hole.
The schedule ahead is not bad after Week 7, but I don’t believe OBJ will be consistent when the losses start and on what is one of the lowest output passing games in the NFL.
Sell Valuation? Try to get as close to that WR1 money as you can.
2) Joe Mixon, CIN
You were about to give him away after Week 3…now, everything is fine. If you think the Mixon ahead is more Weeks 1-3 Mixon, then now is the time to cash out.
At BAL, at IND the next two weeks is a killer schedule on run defense ahead.
Sell Valuation? Strong RB1…like a top 5-6 RB off the hot moment.
3) D.J. Chark, JAX
Finally! He came through. If you want to leverage this 2-TD game into something else…you got your window. I don’t see a big urgency/slavish throwing to Chark happening…even in this game. I’m not giving him away but if I have needs and he’s a hot asset I can inflated sell…I’ll look at it.
Sell Valuation? You can try to make the case he’s a WR1/top 15 type WR…otherwise, why sell him off? It’s not dump at any price…it’s sell high.
4) Kyler Murray, ARI
Again, not trying to dump him out of fear…but I do not like the way the Cardinals offense/passing game looks, and haven’t for the entire season – we’re seeing the same tired offense/WR routes as 2019, but now with more Kyler running. He’s not throwing for 300+ yard games, etc.
Kyler has a ‘name’ people love, so coming off a 3 TD week and his scoring in 2020 doing fine – can you make a mega move in redraft or dynasty?
Kyler for Josh Allen + ____?
Kyler + ____ for Mahomes (if Mahomes has a decent/semi-human game MNF)?
Sell Valuation? Strong, top 3-4-5 QB1…or don’t mess with it.
You don’t have to do anything, but you may need to try to turn him for more assets if you have needs.
5) Michael Gallup, DAL
Big Week 3…last week was the time to sell him. He’s been a dud Week 1, 2, 4. People tend to remember his big Week 3 and that he’s a Cowboy. People like acquiring him to get into the Dallas offense.
If you want off this ride, now’s the time to do it while Week 3 has some recent memory for folks. I fear he’s buried as an insignificant part of the passing game…he’ll have moments (like Week 3) but more moments of ‘decoy’ or ‘ignored’.
Sell Valuation? Strong WR2…or why waste time, just keep him and hope for a turn.
6) Will Fuller, HOU
Back to back ‘good games’ for FF…his stock is back on the rise. You don’t have to sell this. I don’t think his output is going to fade, but he’s always some kind of major or minor injury risk…if you want off that then now’s a good time to sell.
Sell Valuation? WR1.5
7) Justin Jefferson, MIN
You don’t have to sell this, in fact…you might want to hold for the next two weeks for his price to go higher because he has at SEA and ATL the next two weeks, which is sweet.
But considering he is a ‘rookie’ and has had two 100+ yard games in-a-row – it doesn’t get any hotter than this…unless he goes for a 3rd 100+ next week…then it would get hotter.
Sell Valuation? Strong 1.5 or don’t bother.
Five Deep Sleeper Waivers Pickups…
*Total flyer/lowly owned or not-owned players
1) Chase Claypool, PIT
Chase Claypool has ‘star’ written all over him…it could be in 2021, could be later this year…could start in the next few weeks. I don’t know when, but I know it’s going to happen.
In Dynasty…you want this guy before the price goes any higher. Want via trade or waivers or whatever you gotta do.
In redraft, he’s 10-15% owned nationally) he’s a good idea for teams that have Diontae (or JuJu) – if Claypool gets into the regular starting lineup, he’s going to start flashing and be the talk of the rookie WRs.
2) Wayne Gallman, NYG
Sure, Devonta Freeman started…but Gallman looked like the best back they had. If Freeman continues to fail, and Gallman plays like his life depends upon it – Gallman may be a shock split starter or ‘the’ starter within a few weeks.
3) J.D. McKissic, WAS
Seven catches in Week 4. He’s the starter. He looks great. He’s the best Washington RB to have in 2-minute offense mode/PPR. Gibson is the main threat but lurking among the lower level RBs is McKissic playing more snaps than Gibson and more experienced in the passing game…and two ‘Check-down Charlie’ QBs are waiting for their shot to take over for Haskins.
4) Darnell Mooney, CHI
Foles’s first start – Mooney looked like Foles preferred non-ARob throw this game. Mooney had 9 targets in Week 4.
5) Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN
Noah Fant will miss a few weeks, and Albert O. is likely to get activated…and if Drew Lock comes back, Lock would have a college friendship/passer relationship with him…and without any real WRs, Lock might deal some to his old buddy that he’s comfortable with.
6) Reggie Bonnafon, CAR
More touches in Week 4…and he ran for 5.3 ypc and caught a TD pass. He’s a real talent…and he’s your high-quality Mike Davis handcuff, if needed.
7) Cam Brate, TB
O.J. Howard is probably done for the season with an Achilles. Cam Brate now moves up a level – he’d be one Gronk injury away from mattering some/being the main TE for Brady for FF. Whatever that is going to be worth.
8) Breshad Perriman, NYJ
Getting ready to come back Week 5 or 6…and he’ll be a bigger (size wise) receiver threat for Darnold (that he doesn’t have without him) in all the deficits they’ll be throwing a lot in. Could get some junk time heat ahead.
The risk being (besides ‘Jets’) is that Denzel Mims is about to return…and he’s be #9 on this list.
Five…it’s OK to quit them players:
1) Greg Zuerlein, DAL
We talked about it some on the Sunday Video Q&A, but ‘Greg the Leg’ has been grandfathered in on teams from his past work/high preseason ratings – but there are other kicker options emerging that are doing much better. Our favorite has been Daniel Carlson. But the point is – ‘Z’ is not the kicker he has been…and Dallas is getting down so fast in games then roaring back, there’s not much going on for FGs in their games as it is. He’s not a drop at all costs, because this is a good offense and that helps him – but make sure there aren’t better PKs out there right under your nose.
2) Marvin Jones, DET
OK, my patience ran out. He’s making some nice plays (when they even throw it to him). He’s open. Stafford seems to care less. I’m sure once you totally give up he’ll have a 3 TD game, but there has been no indication of life here for weeks, especially since Kenny Golladay came back…which is what I thought would help him. You don’t have to keep holding on forever.
3) Braxton Berrios, NYJ
The Jets ditched him like a hot potato once Jamison Crowder returned, and then launched Jeff Smith as a star WR for a week.
4) Baker Mayfield, CLE
Averaging under 200 yards passing per game in this (3-1) stretch. There’s nothing real to this Browns passing game for sustained FF goodness.
5) Brandin Cooks, HOU
What was supposed to be a good matchup for Houston’s passing game in Week 4 got Cooks no catches on 3 targets. It’s over.
Streaming DST Waiver(?) Options…
Not for Week 5…bad vs. Saints on MNF. This is about Weeks 6-11…
Week 6 v. NYJ
Week 7 at MIA
Week 8 v. JAX
Week 9 v. LV (not great)
Week 10 = BYE
Week 11 at DEN
When Chris Harris returns in a few weeks this gets 2x better.
Only one reason to get…facing the Jets Week 5.
(below) From my push for the Chiefs-DST get last week…(and why you will want the MIA-DST)…
Dropped by many because of the Ravens matchup Week 3. After the Ravens game you get a long stretch against a mix of good and weak offenses. No powerhouse matchups until like Week 15…if you consider the Saints a powerhouse (at NO). Also, consider – the Chiefs have good-to-great defensive talent to go with (and an offense that supports them).
Weeks 4-5-6 with Cam-Carr-J.Allen is OK, but then it gets really good Weeks 7-14…
At DEN, NYJ, CAR, BYE, at LV, at TB, DEN, at MIA.
You know what pairing works great with KC…the Chiefs and the Dolphins…
Week 4 = KC v. NE
Week 5 = KC v. LV
Week 6 = MIA at DEN (KC at BUF)
Week 7 = KC at DEN
Week 8 = KC at NYJ
Week 9 = KC v. CAR
Week 10 = MIA v. NYJ (KC bye)
Week 11 = KC at LV
Week 12 = MIA at NYJ (KC at TB)
Week 13 = KC v. DEN
Week 14 = KC at MIA
From Weeks 4-15 you get 11 weeks, and 3 matchups with DEN and 3 with the Jets…over half vs. DEN and NYJ. Miami doesn’t have a terrible defense either.
IF they get Chase Young back…and then maybe if they change QBs – this is a dangerous high-pressure front for offenses to deal with. The Rams do not do well with pressure – they have LAR Week 5. This is more a boom or bust/desperation play.
But then Week 6 at NYG would be promising.
Sleeper/lesser-name IDP’s whose box scores or live watch caught my attention…
1) LB Josey Jewell, DEN
Finally starting to emerge – his best IDP game as a pro Week 4…10 total tackles, 2 sacks. He’s averaging 7.5 total tackles per game as a 4-game starter this season. The Broncos are going to be on defense a lot, getting run at.
2) DE Emmanuel Ogbah, MIA
At least a half of a sack in each of his last three games. Five QB hits the past three games. 2 TFLs in Week 4. He’s starting to be Miami’s best pass rush threat by far.
3) DE Trey Hendrickson, NO
Hendrickson has a sack in three of his 4 games so far this season…but note he has registered 7 QB hits. He’s getting to the QB with higher regularity this season…a possible 10+ sack season could be coming.
4) LB Kyzir White, LAC
White moved to starting LB Week 2 and has averaged 9.3 total tackles per game in that role. He gets numbers. He also has 2.0 TFLs and 1 PD on the season.
5) SAF Taylor Rapp, LAR
Played 25% of the snaps Weeks 1-2 but has become a quasi-starter again (he was very good last year) Weeks 3-4…and is averaging 8.0 total tackles the past two weeks.
6) LB Anthony Walker, IND
IF Darius Leonard is missing any time, Walker ramps up – like he did this week when Leonard went down. Walker had 11 total tackles this week.
He’s a quality linebacker regardless 7-1-6-11 for total tackle counts in games this season so far.