2020 Week 6: Three Things from Sunday Games + Top 5’s Waivers/Buy-Sell/Sleepers/DST/IDPs
Looks like another solid week across FFM land from the early returns. Some faced Derrick Henry and went down for the count but mostly the trend is pointing towards a solid winning week, but I cannot really lock in on where this week is headed because so many of us have things tied to KC-BUF-ARI to come tonight.
From looking at the early feedback it looks like our collective depth and many, many smart trades I’m seeing out there the past 7-10 days (best wheeling and dealing by the collective group I’ve ever seen in my decade+ of doing this) – it’s all starting to pay off. My heart is warmed by all the ‘I was 0-3/0-4, but I stuck with it and didn’t panic and now I’m 2-4 and just a game out of the playoffs’ type notes I’m seeing. I’m also encouraged by all the (3-3)/(4-2)/(5-1) records being noted now…many of them started (0-1)/(1-2).
The early rough starts are starting to turn back in our favor. Most early losses were either bad sit-start calls (wins left on the bench, so good news was it was possible to win with internal solutions), WRs injured a play into their game, and opponents having mega scoring weeks. All that happens early sometimes and then tends to smooth out/regress to the mean, as we rise when the BYE weeks hit.
For those that stuck it out: https://youtu.be/JW68goC4_es
Also, we’re just starting with the byes and the maneuvering of sweet trades and being smart with our DST pairings/vision ahead (the Miami Dolphins plan from 1-3 weeks ago, amiright?), etc. We’re just getting started into our teams, our management of them kicking it into gear. Don’t stop now…take a breath, be happy you’re back in it or crushing it – but remember, everything turns on a dime in COVID 2020 Fantasy…keep taking advantage of the panicked and ill/mainstream-informed.
Now is the time, I can feel it. We’re about to make our move… https://youtu.be/9qEwBi1NyBI
Good luck with the Monday Night Games!!!
-- Here’s Three Things/quick notes that caught my attention from each Sunday game (subject to change as I rewatch all this week) --
-- We talked about it on the Sunday morning Q&A…you never know what Belichick will do with his RB usage. Damien Harris (6-19-0, 1-14-0/1) didn’t get the touches he did last game…and Cam is going to try to take all the rushing TDs…and James White (8-65-0/9) gets the passes. Harris is kinda screwed for FF right now.
-- Speaking of ‘screwed’…all the Patriots’ WRs with Cam. It’s just over. There will be random events, but he has killed off Julian Edelman (2-8-0/6) and everything else not named James White.
-- Tim Patrick (4-101-0/6) had nice numbers, but note he had an early 41-yard catch that was his own pass interference (not called) and a huge play…and then 3 catches for 60 yards on 5 targets otherwise. He’s a WR3…not a hot WR2, considering the QB play.
-- We all know Chase Claypool (4-74-0/4, 2-7-1) is great, but three things from this one:
1) He caught a 36-yard pass 2 yards short of a TD, and later took a short pass and dove for the end zone and came up a couple feet short – nearly two more TDs on top of the one he did score. Was almost 7 TDs in his last two games…which would’ve been surreal.
2) CC now has 2.5 carries per game the past two weeks, with a rushing TD each week.
3) This game was out of hand fast, so Ben didn’t need to force it to Claypool…who was covered by Denzel Ward a lot, meaning everyone realizes CC is the best WR on the team already.
-- Furthering the point on Claypool as the best WR for Pitt…JuJu Smith-Schuster (2-6-0/4) had another FF-dud. I SO hope the Steelers trade him before the deadline to fully open it up for Claypool-Diontae.
-- Austin Hooper (5-52-0/6) has 5 catches in each of his last three games…5.0 rec, 47.7 yards, 0.33 TDs per game in that span…which is like awesome production for a fantasy TE these days.
-- A.J. Green (8-96-0/11)…you gotta sell this off. He draws the lesser coverage and Burrow took advantage. Tee Higgins (6-125-0/8) is where it’s at…arguably Burrow’s #1, not Tyler Boyd (5-54-0/8).
-- The Colts are falling apart on offense and defense…it took everything they had to beat a bad Cincy team. You need to find a new DST going forward. A bye this week and then mediocre-to-bad matchups the rest of the way. Their claims to fame are halting MIN-NYJ-CHI earlier this season. CLE and CIN had their way with them the last two weeks. Darius Leonard missing isn’t the one thing causing them to totally fall apart.
-- Joe Mixon (18-54-1, 2-15-0/3) got hurt this game, missed a chunk of time but returned in the 2nd-half…but didn’t do much after that. Watch him on the injury reports for this week, but it seems he avoided anything serious.
-- Jason Katz said he had a ‘gut feeling’ on D’Andre Swift (14-116-2, 3-7-0/3) for Sunday…we should’ve taken that more seriously. Let’s see what his gut says next week! This was one-part Swift, one part the Jags (as a team) are giving up like the Jets and days like this are going to happen for opponents. Not sure this is the beginning of something for Swift as a split with AP…or just a blip in-season.
-- D.J. Chark (7-45-0/14) definitely wasn’t a 100% himself/healthy here, but the great news is – Minshew was throwing to him like his top guy, like a #1 WR should see. Good news ahead when Chark is 100% or close to it.
-- This game marks five games in-a-row/all season with Matt Stafford (19-31 for 223 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) not hitting 300+ yards passing. 270 yards or less 4 games in-a-row, less than 225 passing yards his last two games.
-- Where did Jonnu Smith (1-13-0/2) go? Got hurt in-game and opened the door to Anthony Firkser (8-113-1/9) having a game Jonnu could only dream of.
Firkser has 3.7 rec., 36.4 yards, 0.20 TDs per game this season after this great output game. He’s more of a random target that gets left open and Tannehill takes advantage, than he is a ‘weapon’…but he’s not usually targeted at these levels. I wouldn’t bank on Firkser as emerging or consistent ahead, but he’s become not-nothing, at least. And if Jonnu is out for a bit…you have to dive in on Firkser for those in-need.
-- OK, maybe Brandin Cooks (9-68-1/9) is back in the mix? Two monster games the past two weeks…and so much attention goes to Will Fuller (6-123-1/11) that someone has to benefit…it has been Cooks popping lately. I’m not going to ignore it. Bill O’Brien gone has been a boon to Cooks for FF.
-- Tyrell Adams (8 tackles, 1 sack, 2 PDs) has a nice debut as starter for the out-for-the-year Bernardrick McKinney. Now…that’s a nice IDP/FF debut. As for the NFL effectiveness, did you see Derrick Henry’s numbers here?
-- OK, now I’m done talking about/hoping for/making a case on Evan Engram (2-30-0/3) 2020…until he’s traded or signed to another team in 2021.
-- You dismiss J.D. McKissic (8-41-0, 6-32-0/6), but he’s F-Team’s best RB…a slithery runner (one less carry than Gibson this game) and 6 catches (one less than game leader McLaurin). 10-15 PPR points each week…not bad.
6.33 rec., 43.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game the past three weeks. He’s making a run at being a top 3 in the NFL in catches among RBs this season.
-- Cole Holcomb (6 tackles, 1.0 TFL)…is he the new starter? He just came off I.R. and started and played about 70% of the snaps. I’m hoping because I’m a fan…and he changes their issue covering TEs.
-- Mark Ingram (5-20-0) got dinged up and it looked like (live watch of multiple games at a time) J.K. Dobbins (9-28-0, 2-1-0/4) was working as the lead at first then Gus Edwards (14-26-1) got the push along with as the game wore on. We won’t get a shock Dobbins or Edwards (off any Ingram injury) Week 7 as BAL is on a bye. Ingram should be fine for their Week 8 showdown with the Steelers.
-- When this game mattered, early on, Travis Fulgham (6-75-1/10) did little…but then a frenzied comeback attempt by Philly with the Ravens kinda casually disinterested let the Eagles back in the game with Fulgham compiling numbers. We’re getting close to DJax-Jeffrey-Goedert returning…and Fulgham will still play snaps but he won’t be ‘the guy’ like he is now once they all return.
-- Another week, another Miles Sanders (9-118-0, 1-0-0/1) event where he got sprung for a huge run (again, a 74-yarder for back-to-back weeks…and this one that he fumbled into the end zone at the end of the play for a TD for JJAW) but insignificant otherwise…and a dropped a 10+ yard TD pass right in his hands as well. I’m a ‘sell high’ on him because this Eagles O-Line is completely wrecked with injury.
The trade away problem is – he’s headed for an MRI…he might be out for a bit and really throw a wrench into things. You know I love Boston Scott…but I don’t know that Doug Pederson does.
-- Back-to-back games for Irv Smith (4-55-0/5) with 4 catches…nice to see, showing a little FF-hope – but I did not see any move to him as a desired weapon. Just a guy who was there when other things were covered mostly. This loss effectively ends the Vikings’ season – which means a trade of Kyle Rudolph is imminent, clearing the way more for Smith ahead...maybe.
-- Justin Jefferson (9-166-2/11) is becoming a star for sure, I was a beat or two late on it but got some shares the last few weeks. Keep in mind…this uprising is coming off an excellent/very favorable schedule…and the good news is the schedule wont get much tougher until Weeks 14-16 but all of those games are indoors/in Florida, so not so bad either. JJ has a chance to be a strong WR1.5 the rest of the way…and I’m a little shocked by it – but it is reality. It has been for four weeks now. Rookie WRs are just walking in and dominating right off the bat is the ‘new norm’. The ‘year three’ thing for WRs in ancient, useless theory to even discuss.
-- Calvin Ridley (6-61-1/7) limped off the field. He may be down for a game or two, and if so it brings back old friend Olamide Zaccheaus (0-0-0/2) into the starting lineup…which would make him a WR3-4 flyer for bye week help if Ridley is out.
-- No Curtis Samuel and with all the attention on Robby Anderson (4-77-0/5)…and D.J. Moore (5-93-0/11) had decent numbers but really was a letdown this game. Many drops/near-catches that ended drives. He’s just not an ‘it’ receiver, but he’s fine/solid/good…as I;ve been trying to push all year.
-- I’m watching this Carolina defense slowly get better…slowly creeping into a streaming possibility. The Bears defense set up a couple cheap scores here (already in the Carolina red zone) or otherwise the Panthers-D was pretty solid here. Marking the 4th solid performance in-a-row for the CAR-DST. The problem for them is they don’t get a real juicy matchup again until Week 14 v. DEN or Week 16 at WSH.
-- For good opposing NFL defense, the Bears are a ‘good matchup’ for those DSTs…even now led by Nick Foles. In his three games as full starter, Foles is averaging just 1.0 TDs/1.0 INTs, 230.0 yards passing per game while the offense has scored 18.0 PPG…with a weak passing game and terrible running game. And to be fair…Foles has faced a tough schedule in his 3 games (IND-TB-CAR).
At LAR, then hosting NO, then at TEN all are good starts on the DST side against them the next 3 weeks.
-- I’m happy for you if you used the Miami-DST this week. But I’m really impressed with everyone who plotted this scheme with me a few weeks prior and then played this card at just the right time. This wasn’t luck – we'd been planning for this for several weeks. Some of you got in weeks early, some a week early, some just this past week. However that it happened…mazel tov!!!
Don’t lose sight of the fact that this is an emerging defense, not just ‘beat the Jets’. Our next stop with them is Weeks 11-12-13 at DEN, at NYJ, CIN.
-- I have to rewatch it to explain why…Adam Shaheen (3-51-1/3) happened, and a zero for Mike Gesicki (0-0-0/2) happened (which is fine by me I don’t endorse or own Gesicki anywhere). Shaheen is usually a part-time player, like very ‘part’…so I need to see the tape to see if this is some shift or just a freak incident. My interest is piqued…that’s a TD in each of his last two games. He played 57% of the offensive snaps Week 5 at SF (but it was a blowout). This game – just 29% of the snaps.
-- We can’t properly assess the Jets offense/WRs until Joe Flacco (21-44 for 186 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is replaced by Sam Darnold…and I’m not sure when that will happen. Joe Flacco is literally the worst QB in the NFL…playing on the worst offense in the NFL designed by the worst head and offensive coaches in the NFL.
Breshad Perriman (4-62-0/8) returned and looked solid/healthy/useful (for garbage time hopes), but he’d be better with Darnold…that’s how bad Flacco is – I’m rooting for Darnold to return!
-- Rob Gronkowski (5-78-1/8) is real now. He’s not the Gronk of old…just F.O.B. (Friend of Brady). More of a friend than Mike Evans (1-10-0/2) is…who has to be PISSED at all that has happened to him this year.
It also kills off any Cam Brate (1-3-0/1) thoughts, as I feared it would.
-- I’m starting to get won over on Robert Tonyan (3-35-0/4)…him actually meaning something to Aaron Rodgers/this offense/for FF. Embracing him after this nothing of a game (for him for FF), not his 3 TD event two weeks ago.
I’ve been a fan/Champion of Tonyan, in vain, for 2+ years…I just never thought I’d see the day. But watching Rodgers with him here, in this blowout, I saw some of the connection…the game just got out of hand and Tonyan had sprained his ankle and was out some (but back in). I’m down with Tonyan as the decent/viable Adams-alternative (with Lazard out). Easy schedule ahead. ‘Buy low’ label applied.
-- Well, I did not see the Bucs-DST totally destroying Aaron Rodgers (16-35 for 160 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs). I’ve been pro-TB-DST but I wasn’t this week. I should’ve been. Will this keep up?
@LV, @NYG, NO, @CAR the next 4 weeks…not bad, but not awesome…but if the Bucs defense is going ‘next level’, then they are a play. They show flashes of being the best defense I watch each week, but then all the sudden they’ll give up points/lose games and make me doubt…but that’s the story with many good DSTs this year, in a year of a lot of offense and legalized holding.
This obliteration is a good time to buy low on all things Green Bay that pique your interest…Rodgers, Jones, Adams, Tonyan. GB’s schedule ahead is SWEET!
At HOU, MIN, at SF, JAX, at IND, CHI, PHI, at DET, CAR, TEN…besides the Bears it’s pretty nice (especially if Indy is a fraud). The late season issue for Rodgers…four home games in 5 weeks from Weeks 12-16…late Nov./Dec in Green Bay’s home field/weather. GB weather tends to suppress/affect some outputs in the passing game.
This game result proves I know nothing about football, in three parts…
#1) I thought Sean McVay hated Darrell Henderson (14-88-0)? Now he’s his bell cow, after all week talking about how great Cam Akers looked the past game…and then Cam gets zero touches?
I guess, as this story goes, I come flying back in as a DHendo lover and he’ll get 3 carries next week? I just watched DH become the real lead back for the Rams…how did this happen? I love it and am perplexed all at the same time.
#2) I thought Deebo Samuel (6-66-1/6) would be underwhelming because Jalen Ramsey would be on him…instead they smartly use Deebo as a quasi RB and he has all 6’s all around for a stat line. Maybe it’s the sign the apocalypse has come?
I think it’s a sign Deebo is going to be a WR1 threat ahead…the way he gets touches now is coverage/QB immune.
#3) I went on and on about how bad the 49ers defense and D-C are last week, and then they somehow crafted their best defensive plan/game of 2020 against one of the hottest offenses in the NFL. They couldn’t stop Miami/Ryan Fitz last week but made Jared Goff look foolish here. I’m still a ‘seller’ on this SF-DST for FF.
===== FIVE PLAYERS… =====
**NOTE: Tuesday Night Waiver Madness Video Q&A 8:00-9:30pmET, where we will go over more of all these things (below) every Tuesday night**
Five Waivers To Trust…
*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.
**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me.
***FAAB % mentioned at any time below is based on a 17-20 man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.
-- Even though they are nationally under/around 50% owned, I don’t feel like we need to put Justin Herbert or Justin Jackson or Mike Williams on here. We’ve been clear about them for the last week or more. They are strong players you should have already grabbed if they were somehow on your waivers the last week. --
1) RB Boston Scott (B-/C+) *If Miles Sanders is down/out for a game or more…
If Sanders is out, there will be a split backfield of Scott/Clement, but Scott is the clear and obvious talent. However, I’m not sure Doug Pederson fully agrees…so be careful going to crazy here if the opportunity presents.
Hard to say priority/FAAB% until we know what’s up with Sanders’ MRI. Could be Scott goes completely off the list by Tuesday morning.
2) TE Rob Gronkowski (C)
There’s a lot of TE pain out there in Fantasy…here’s a place where the QB WANTS to get the ball to his tight end, because they are BFFs. I won’t laugh at it. Gronk looks like he’s getting into better shape/a little quicker the past few weeks as we’ve been noting.
I fear Tom Brady changes favorite WRs every week or two, so don’t get too hyped. Some people think Gronk is a joke, others worship the name…hard to say how hard everyone is coming after him.
3) WR Tee Higgins (C)
Second week in a row on here…this week I’m a step closer to thinking he’s becoming Burrow’s favorite WR. The big A.J. Green game might distract some away from even thinking that thought. Most people think Boyd is Burrow’s #1 with AJG right up there just needing to get heathy. Might be that Higgins is his true #1, for what that’s worth in this passing game.
4) RB J.D. McKissic (C-/D+)
Getting 5+ catches for 50+ yards a game the last few weeks…a plausible bye week PPR fill in back, but I maintain he might be taking more and more carries as an Ekeler, a poor man’s Christian McCaffrey for CMC’s former game planners/coaches from Carolina. I think some sneaky upside here with a nice floor in PPR if not.
5) TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (C-/D+) *BEWARE...we don't if Goedert is healed/healthy/can play yet...he can come off IR buthe might not be ready to or be ready for 2-3 more weeks.*
With so much TE desperation this seems like a nice opportunity, but we don’t know if Goedert is really coming off I.R./playing Week 7…and what that will even look like in the hodge podge Philly offense.
Downside – Goedert fractured his ankle. Is he ready? Could they just wait until past Week 9 bye to get him fully healed?
Upside – If he is ready, perhaps Philly deals Ertz…I think that’s something that sounds good to us hot stove dealmakers but doesn’t happen in reality. *Ertz now getting an MRI today might really open up a door here this week.
6) PK Younghoe Koo, ATL (D+)
You need a kicker this week for a bye or just should upgrade? Koo has 2-4-2-3-4 FGs made in a game this season…and has hit 50+ yards in each of his last two games. Kicking in a dome in five of his next 6 games.
Five Waivers To Distrust…
1) TE Trey Burton, IND
I know he’s getting good looks, but he looks so flimsy on tape and Philip Rivers arm is a wet noodle that only the Bengals nonexistent pass defense could make plausible. You have to be getting desperate to chase Burton, but I get it -- we’re in a TE Great Depression. Some will have to try and go here. I’d just like to NOT be tied to this passing game unless they are playing Cincy (not against this year) or Houston (Wk13)
2) WR James Washington, PIT
Come on, man… When Diontae Johnson returns, Washington is lucky to be a #4 option for Ben. I like Washington as a receiver, but he’s behind CC-Diontae-JuJu in pecking order. When/if they move JuJu, then he’s still a random event. Good Week 6…not buying it week-to-week.
3) RB Lamical Perine, NYJ
We’re all trying to find the next big ‘takeover’ at RB but being a main carry back on the Jets doesn’t mean squat because the offense is so bad. Perine is a below average talent and the Jets have no QB or O-Line and are still pushing Frank Gore for some reason.
Perine could work in a pinch for the desperate but I’d only get to try and flip when his name got hotter. Everyone assumes he’ll be taking over a main carry role, but that’s not really his thing and if Gore is moved…the Jets will find someone to split with Perine.
4) WR Marcus Johnson, IND
Sweet game this week…5-108-0/8, but you cannot count on any Indy WR for consistency with Rivers at QB and if the defense isn’t the Bengals. Johnson is a solid hand at WR, but you cannot trust this pass game against any decent defense at all. With each passing week, the return of Michael Pittman (and maybe Parris Campbell) will come soon and throw a wrench into all the current Indy WR’s flow as it is.
5) RB Gus Edwards, BAL
Mark Ingram hurt his ankle, but with the Ravens on a bye this week – Ingram should be fine for Week 8. If something was amiss, it would be J.K. Dobbins as the RB to pursue not Edwards.
Five Buy Low Players…
*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*
Comments for Week 5-into-6: This is almost the same list as last week, and rightfully so. No real great new ‘buy low’ player sprung out at me Sunday into Monday. I might land on one with more thought as we go through the week, but the names from Week 4-into-5 are almost all here in the same order (just different commentary).
1) RB Raheem Mostert, SF *We need to see if his ankle is OK or not first*
No 100+ yard game on SNF. No TDs in that game either…hasn’t scored a TD since Week 2. Missed Weeks 3-4. No TDs Week 5-6. He is getting ‘boring’. JaMycal Hasty took the 49ers home down the stretch (due to an ankle injury for Mostert).
Boring? I’d argue he’s the best looking back I watch working week-to-week now, and he has a really nice O-Line to work behind…and we got the SF offense changed up/fixed (apparently) against the Rams. All signs point north. I really want in on Mostert.
Trade Valuation? RB1.5-2.0…he’s a starter for an NFL team. Has good memories from many weeks ago, but those are fading for the currently desperate. In reality, for his current owner, he’s been a dud for four weeks (missed 2 weeks in there with injury). Week 2 was a long time ago…and against the Jets. You want to find the not-paying-attention person, the frustrated with non-sexy name Mostert and go in and extract this stud RB.
I love this player, at this time, at the current downward trend for easier pricing. I think the FF media will blow up the Hasty touches late into ‘a thing’ and help drive fear and the pricing down. My week begins trying to craftily get Mostert on every team I can…but emphasis on ‘crafty’. You go barreling in asking ‘What’s it going to take to get Mostert’ and you might as well not even try…that approach makes no sense ever on any player. Play it cool. Whine about RB depth and byes and yada yada.
Add Tevin Coleman to go with off waivers, after, perhaps. He might be back this week. Use the Coleman return this week to subtly drive the Mostert price down when discussing. Add Coleman ahead of time and then engage the Mostert talks.
2) WR Deebo Samuel, SF
Yes, I know…terrible time to buy. Good game/stats on national TV. I just think we saw a glimpse of Deebo about to try to shoot to a WR1 as the main focus of the 49ers’ offense. All those pitch passes and jet sweeps – no WR gets better treatment/perfect touches like Deebo (Chase Claypool is a close 2nd). Deebo hasn’t done much for FF and then had this game. The price may be reasonable…if you can get him as a random/nice WR2.
D.J. Moore for Deebo, I’d crawl through broken glass to hit the button to accept that trade. I think Deebo is about to launch into FF greatness.
3) WR Tyler Lockett, SEA
With all the attention on D.K. Metcalf ahead, you’d think Tyler Lockett is going to be a natural winner from it. The thing is -- Lockett has had two down games in-a-row followed by a BYE. He is internally frustrating his current owner.
You want the ‘other’ WR from the Seattle high functioning passing game if he comes on a deal, and I think he’s fallen to a random WR2 with downside emotions because of three weeks of nothing, essentially. Current owners are worried, by and large.
4) WR D.J. Chark, JAX
Finally, we’re seeing a shift to Minshew treating DJC like his #1 WR…desperate throws, a lot of them, to Chark. The Week 5 blip really was Bradley Roby avoidance and a hurt ankle late. Chark wasn’t 100% this week and didn’t have a big stat day, per se…but he was close to some TDs and big plays that would have made you mad you had benched him. The targeting was excellent/heavy.
Trade Valuation? WR2.0+…people are going to see his weak stat line the past 2 weeks, take it out of context, hate the Jags in general, wonder if Keelan Cole is the new #1 – and you go get DJC at a great price, hopefully. I saw a lot of people give away DJC last week (to us), the price didn’t rise after this week I don’t suspect.
5) RB Jonathan Taylor, IND
The fresh rookie excitement is wearing down, and several ‘meh’ games have been produced lately since Taylor became ‘the man’. He’s get-able, and I’m interested because he’s a guy that the Colts have to ride to try and win games ahead – he’s all they got for offensive firepower. He’s on a BYE this week so the price dips for the RB desperate (and Taylor not doing anything that people are super-attached to).
Trade Valuation? RB2…he’s not been an RB1, so pay closer to RB2 prices or walk. Good time in Dynasty to strike as well, to see if the current owner is over it or still infatuated.
6) TE Robert Tonyan, GB
Hate your TE situation? Tonyan was the typical no-name TE who had a hot week and was all the rage a but then followed that up with a dud performance/number for FF. The Tonyan eruption was now three weeks ago. There will be fear that Tonyan has fading/dying value that if the current owner doesn’t sell now, he may not be worth anything in another week.
I was more impressed with what I saw when this was still a game with Rodgers-Tonyan.
Trade Valuation? TE2…like he’s more a 12-team/regular roster size guy who might get cut more than start for his owner this week. I don’t have a strong feeling here, just the beginning of one/a hunch. And I need hunches to replace some dying standard-bearer TEs failing me.
7) WR Robbie Anderson, NYJ
Had a solid/’meh’ output game, which might reinforce most of his owner’s fears that Robby isn’t a real #1 WR and that D.J. Moore is coming to steal everything away. Not true. Robby is a hot get/buy for PPR.
Trade Valuation? WR2+…try to find the ‘scared’ owner who won’t admit it but it’s really boiling inside them because mainstream analysts keep wishing/writing about for DJM as the #1 to happen.
8) RB Darrell Henderson, LAR
Last week ‘sell high’, this week ‘buy low’…that’s Fantasy Football for you. You change with the data. Just when it looked like DH was going to be in a confusing three-way split Week 6…he was the MOST main carry/lead he’s ever been. He’s so damn good.
However, he didn’t have TDs (one got called back) or big catch counts, so his numbers weren’t impressive for the second week in a row. Non-FFM people are not as emotionally invested and might give away easier than expected.
Trade Valuation? RB2-2.5…I’m not paying a lot, I’m just recommending a steal could be had by a frustrated, non-invested in DH owner. This situation could change on a dime, as it has for weeks. DH had the lead role Week 6…and the Rams offense never looked worse (except DH looked great). McVay could change it up for the sake of change because they lost. This is only a steal/buy low situation, but what I saw Week 6 is a commitment to DH, and Henderson laid down tape to show he’s terrific if given the chance.
Five Sell High Players…
*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or values thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*
1) WR Travis Fulgham, PHI
He’s becoming a beloved WR in the NFL community…I’m willing to sell (like last week) as fast as I can before Goedert-DJax-Jeffrey starts to return and water all this down.
Sell Valuation? WR2-2.5…find a ‘believer’ and try and make a deal, not a giveaway as a WR3 valuation. You don’t have to give him away.
2) WR A.J. Green, CIN
Many people have clamored for AJG to be traded to another team, to save their team’s offense (like the Eagles), and now Green had a nice FF day to bolster those thoughts…but AJG is ‘shot’ and you got a nice exit opportunity off this good week. Get out while you can.
Sell Valuation? WR2.5-3, I’m not being choosy…time is of the essence on this one and he’s mostly meaningless to me…so, as a sweetener or for whatever is decent to do a deal.
3) WR Odell Beckham, CLE
You should’ve been out 2-3 weeks ago after his big game vs. Dallas. With Cleveland getting exposed this week, the whiny WRs will start to sulk and Baker is not 100%...this whole situation will implode and OBJ goes back to WR3 you hate.
Sell Valuation? WR2…you gotta try to sell him like he’s that guy from a few weeks ago. Try to find that OBJ sucker out there…you should have weeks ago. Take Deebo or Lockett for him straight up without delay.
4) Le’Veon Bell, KC
You can read my theory on Bell on the FFM Premium Articles. I think there are people out there that think Bell is going to be the starter Week 7 or worse case Week 8 and be the main guy and be the old Le’Veon. I want to find those people and sell Bell to them.
It will be weeks before Bell settles in and his value will drop with each passing week of confusion (a la Leonard Fournette with TB early on…the hope, the frustration).
Sell Valuation? RB1.5…go find the true believer.
5) RB D’Andre Swift, DET
The perfect valuation storm: 100+ yard rushing game + two TDs in a game + rookie + a hot rookie name the mainstream adores = the past doesn’t matter and Swift is now going to the Hall of Fame. I’m not saying Swift is going to go back to nothing, just when you got a ‘name’ off a hot game…you can sell it higher than you think.
Sell Valuation? RB1.5…find the person who thinks this is Swift’s backfield now. They exist.
Five Deep Sleeper Waivers Pickups…
*Total flyer/lowly owned or not-owned players
1) TE Jordan Akins, HOU
I think some/a lot of the Darren Fells goodness Week 6 would have been to Akins. For those dying at TE and looking to add a gamble 2nd TE for a potential payoff – I’ve been pushing Akins since Week 2. I think he looks great and was a relied upon option for Deshaun Watson.
2) RB Brian Hill, ATL
If you think the Falcons might trade Todd Gurley in the next 2-3 weeks…Hill would be in position to takeover.
3) TE Irv Smith, MIN
Four catches for Smith in each of his last two games...a decent trend upward. The big win here is the Vikings losing this week, their season effectively ended, and now looking to trade Kyle Rudolph for CAP reasons ASAP. We could see a freely starting Irv Smith for MIN…whatever that means for FF, hopefully something good!
4) RB Ty Johnson, NYJ
Came in midgame and on three carries (for 42 yards) he looked like the best RB the Jets have had in two years. I know it’s just a few carries in a dead game, but the Jets will probably let Frank Gore go to a contender (it’s the right thing to do…cut him, and let him sign where he wants to go…SF, MIA, BUF, etc.). Once Gore is gone it’s Perine-Johnson-Adams left…and that could be a win for Johnson, to at least see touches in a split.
Johnson is a physical talent…maybe he fell into the right situation? This is a long shot in deep roster leagues.
5) RB Tevin Coleman, SF
Set to return Week 7. If Raheem Mostert goes down, it is Coleman who would be the SF lead. If you’re gambling on backup RBs who could get lucky with an injury to the starter – here’s one flying under some radars.
6) WR Jalen Reagor, PHI
Supposed to be back Week 7…but will have to fight with Fulgham some upon return. He was ‘Wentz’s guy’ before he went down.
7) WR Nelson Agholor, LV
The Raiders #1 WR, but that’s only good for 2-4 targets per game.
8) WR Olamide Zaccheaus, ATL
If Calvin Ridley is out longer term, Zaccheaus would elevate into a bad team passing a lot and he could put up some numbers as a bye week fill-in hopeful ahead.
9) WR Antonio Brown, FA
Eligible to play after Week 8/suspension served. I don’t even know if anyone would sign him, but someone probably will…or at least rumors should begin soon.
10) RB Rashaad Penny, SEA
Eligible to return Week 8. Only good as a Carson cuff, but we don’t even know if Penny is rehabbed OK. Long shot play here that would have to be timed with a shock Carson injury AND Penny 100% healthy to play. Maybe too-too far a long shot to bother with.
FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS:
1) WR Marvin Jones, DET
Jones has been a ghost most of the season, but I thought maybe that Week 6 matchup with JAX would get him a little bump. Nope. It’s like he doesn’t exist.
2) WR Scotty Miller, TB
Weeks 3-4, I thought Brady-Miller had a great thing going on. Looked very promising. Since I SAW this neat thing on tape…last two games, 1 catch, 6 yards, 2 targets total. No, thanks.
3) QB Baker Mayfield, CLE
Between the offense, the output all season, and now the nagging injury – I have no interest at all and may never have it again. I thought Baker could really be a highflyer with Freddie Kitchens, coming off his record setting rookie season. Nope. Now he is trash. Too many other QBs coming onto the scene who are better. Baker has been left behind in Cleveland.
4) RB Malcolm Brown, LAR
This week he’s not splitting with Darrell Henderson, he’s just a bit player with Henderson. If DH got hurt, Cam Akers would rise and Brown would be a bit player with him.
5) Just 4 this week.
STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS…
A one week only engagement!
Week 7 = at NYJ
Week 8 = v. NE probably isn’t bad either, but there will be better.
This is about Weeks 7-10…and even if just for Week 7 and 10 along it’s a good get/hold/pair with another.
Week 7 = Hosting NYG on TNF
Week 8 = Hosting DAL with their new QB Andy Dalton.
Week 9 = BYE
Week 10 = at NYG
The Eagles have a pretty decent defense. I won’t blame them for getting crushed by Chase Claypool Week 5.
A nice schedule stretch upcoming…
Week 7 = v. JAX
Week 8 = at DEN
Week 9 v. LV (not great)
Week 10 = at MIA
Week 11 at NYJ
When Chris Harris returns in a few weeks this gets 2x better.
A very good streamer defense with a nice schedule ahead with just two bad spots to deal with along with a bunch of positive/favorable starts.
Week 7 = v. PIT (NO)
Week 8 = at CIN (YES, bad O-Line)
Week 9 = v. CHI (YES)
Week 10 = v. IND (YES)
Week 11 = at BAL (NO)
Week 12 = at IND (YES)
Week 13 = CLE (YES)
Week 14 = at JAX (YES)
Week 15 = DET (YES)
From Weeks 6-15, you can use this DST with some confidence seven times in 10 weeks. They burned their BYE Week 4.
With the Dak injury, suddenly this got more interesting as a sleeper DST…
Week 7 = DAL
Week 8 = BYE
Week 9 = v. NYG
Week 10 = at DET
Week 11 = CIN
Week 12 = at DAL
With the exception of the bye week…you might be able to use this defense Weeks 7-12, IF the offense can lend any support. It’s a risky proposition.
(below) From my push for the Chiefs-DST get last week…(and why you will want the MIA-DST)…*Updated for the latest schedule changes.
You know what pairing works great with KC…the Chiefs and the Dolphins…
Week 7 = KC at DEN (MIA bye)
Week 8 = KC at NYJ
Week 9 = KC v. CAR
Week 10 = MIA v. LAC (KC bye) *This just went ‘bad’ on the schedule change. Not a damning matchup, but not favorable (used to be v. NYJ)
Week 11 = MIA at DEN (KC at LV)
Week 12 = MIA at NYJ (KC at TB)
Week 13 = KC v. DEN or MIA v. CIN
Week 14 = KC at MIA
From Weeks 4-15 you get 11 weeks, and 3 matchups with DEN and 3 with the Jets…over half vs. DEN and NYJ. Miami doesn’t have a terrible defense either.
You may know I like this defensive unit a lot, as a defense on the rise. The offense hurts its upside, but there is a lot of talent and discipline with this unit…and now the schedule gets interesting because of so many NFC East matchups in a short period of time:
Week 7 = at PHI on TNF
Week 8 = TB (not great)
Week 9 = at WAS
Week 10 = PHI
Week 11 = BYE
Week 12 = at CIN
Sleeper/lesser-name IDP’s whose box scores or live watch caught my attention…
1) DB Logan Ryan, NYG
Last season, Ryan was one of the top IDP DBs in all of Fantasy. He’s getting back to it again. This train is leaving the station…
He was signed late in the offseason, played half-a-game for NYG Week 1, and then started every game since. His numbers in five games as a starter this season (per game):
7.0 total tackles, 5.6 solo, 1.4 assist, 0.8 PDs, 0.2 TFLs, 0.2 FF
He’s a numbers producer, a veteran hand for this emerging NYG defense.
2) LB Krys Barnes, GB
I think the UDFA rookie leads the NFL in total tackles per snap played…
142 snaps played, 35 total tackles, a tackle every 4.05 plays…which is an easy 10-12+ total tackles per game pace for a full game played.
He’s started the last 3 games, but then he usually plays about 50% of the game snaps if he’s lucky…until Week 6 where he played 88% and is becoming the man at ILB over Ty Summers (who I also like, but seems to be fading with Barnes ascending).
3) CB Cameron Dantzler, MIN
The rookie started Week 1, got hurt and missed Weeks 2-3, and right back in as starter Weeks 4-6…and Week 6 he posted 11 tackles, 2 TFLs. In 4 starts, Dantzler has 6.0 total tackles and 0.50 TFLs per game…at cornerback.
4) DE Josh Sweat, PHI
One of our deep sleeper and ‘stash’ IDPs for a couple years now, and he’s finally starting to emerge as a top pass rusher/defender. In 6 games this season…
1.7 total tackles, 0.50 sacks, 1.0 TFLs, 0.2 PDs, 0.2 FF per game
In Week 6 v. WSH, Sweat had a season high 5 tackles, 3 TFLs.
5) CB Jeff Okudah, DET
Jumped right back into the action this week, after getting dinged up Week 4, had a BYE Week 5, and played 97% of the snaps Week 6 and landed 8 total tackles. The rookie played half a game (snap count wise) before getting hurt Week 4…if we double his Week 4 output and then average his 4 games this season, his numbers are per game:
7.8 total tackles, 6.5 solo, 1.3 assisted, 0.4 TFLs, 0.3 PD, 0.3 INT = 3.5 games in 2020
Those are nice tackle counts for a DB designation but are pretty righteous tackle counts for a CB
6) LB Cole Holcomb, WSH
I love this player, which means NFL head coaches won’t…that happens a lot at the ILB position. Either they’re wrong or I’m wrong. I see their run game numbers and coaching longevity, so I’m not ruling out ‘it’s them’. Any whooo…
Holcomb wasn’t named starter out of training camp, which was a shock (to me). He got hurt Week 1 and has been out of action. He came back Week 6 and ended up starting and playing 65% of the snaps and landing 6 tackles and a TFL. If I know he’s a full 100% snap starter for WFT…he’s a top 10 ILB IDP producer. I just don’t know how committed the team is…but they did start him here. Hopefully, it’s time for Holcomb…
7) LB Robert Spillane, PIT
Devin Bush down and out for the year, and it was Spillane taking over – and he’s an old school tackle monster at ILB. I loved some of his work in 2018 and 2019 preseason. The Steelers signed him off the Titans practice squad in 2018 and then moved him up and down their practice squad in 2019…now he’s going to have big shoes to fill. I like Holcomb and Barnes better, but Spillane is in a spot to get some tackles as a new starter…IF he really is the new starter. It’s not 100%.
When you make it to the end of one of these mega-reports, I try to share a little treat.
My football life in a 3:30 clip about baseball... https://youtu.be/8DDMHwqIn3s