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2020 Week 7: Three Things from Sunday Games + Top 5’s Waivers/Buy-Sell/Sleepers/DST/IDPs

Date:
October 26, 2020

2020 Week 7: Three Things from Sunday Games + Top 5’s Waivers/Buy-Sell/Sleepers/DST/IDPs

Week 7 is going to be the worst week across FFM in the 2020 season to date. How bad or not so bad depends upon Darrell Henderson among other things on MNF. Best case scenario…a 50/50-ish week, which is the worst tracking of the year. Worst case a 40% or lower win-rate, and a major pothole hit midseason.

There’s always this type of ‘bad week’ that happens every year…expected, but it’s painful nonetheless. The KC offense being underwhelming in the snow/cold started the problem (that the KC DST tried to help offset). But the Chase Claypool zero on top of it was a death blow for many. Kyler pulled some of us back from the brink.

Darrell Henderson being good would help a little, DHendo being great might pull a few certain defeats back to the win column. A Henderson egg would be another kick to the groin.

Whether it is Higbee, Henderson, Allen Robinson, a Darnell Mooney flyer…whatever you need tonight, I pray you get it!

Most FFM teams are now projected to be either (4-3) or (3-4). Next most likely is (5-2)/(2-5). Rare (6-1)/(1-6) or better/worse. Most teams are still in it, worse case. Six more games before the playoffs for most FF players. Four teams on bye this week…so more BYE week issues, lower scoring in general (for all teams in your league)/some ugly wins ahead – this is the time to out-maneuver while trades can still be made and as RBs drop like flies. Not to mention COVID scares and NFL trade deadline this week and Antonio Brown is back and Halloween is coming and the Election anxiety ramps up and meteors hitting the planet – so much can happen in just one week.

Keep the faith if you’re on a down trend and within two games of a playoff spot – most losses I see are where we picked ‘A’ over ‘B’ and the one you didn’t pick went off and the one you did pick did nothing/got hurt. It’s not a football issue…it’s a timing/random luck issue. Those things can cosmically straighten themselves to get back to harmonic balance. Our collective sit-start ‘luck’ is due to turn…our ability to get Diontae in or out of the lineup the right weeks has to go our way sometime…

This is me setting lineups every week for Fantasy, dressed like John Candy (RIP): https://youtu.be/uDY1z6ezqO4

How does he know where we’re going?

 

 

-- Here’s Three Things/quick notes that caught my attention from each Sunday game (subject to change as I rewatch all this week) --

 

CLE-CIN

 -- Joe Burrow (35-47 for 406, 3 TDs/1 INT) is subtly brilliant at QB…and he now has 300+ passing yards in a game in five of his last 6 games. He’s moving into the FF ‘don’t ask…just start’ situation most weeks in passer-friendly scoring leagues.

 -- Good for Baker Mayfield (22-28 for 297 yards, 5 TDs/1 INT)…two weeks ago he was ‘all fixed’ and the Browns were going to the playoffs. Then they lost to the Steelers a week ago and he was ‘should he be replaced by Case Keenum’ discussion and/or ‘should they trade him’ talk. This week…a money game, albeit against the Bengals.

Notice Baker has his best game of 2020, or in two years. Why? Could it be that OBJ left the game for good early and then Baker took off? I have thought Beckham IS the problem all along…this didn’t make me think differently.

 -- Harrison Bryant (4-56-2/5) is playing solid football and got the start here due to Austin Hooper’s injury. Bryant was just an option against a nice/favorable passing defense. He wasn’t a big plan being used by Baker, just normal use and they have a ‘trust’ between them when he’s called upon. Useful for FF, but sustainability/consistency is a question in 2020. But he’s an option for the desperate next week assuming Hooper out again.

 

GB-HOU

 -- Brandin Cooks (7-60-0/9) is now averaging, in his past three games, 8.0 rec., 103.0 yards, 0.67 TDs per game…one of the best WRs in fantasy the past three weeks. Houston is always down and can’t run the ball – there’s no reason elevated pass numbers won’t keep up. But the second he has a 3-30-0/7 game panic will ensue.

 -- A.J. Dillon (5-11-0) got a shot at some touches here but showed absolutely nothing with them. He’s no risk to Aaron Jones or Jamaal Williams (19-77-1, 4-37-0/5) right now, and probably not all year. He needs more work to get settled in (if he can get settled in).

 -- Aaron Rodgers (23-34 for 283 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) completed 23 passes…13 (56.5%) of them to Davante Adams (13-196-2/16). Everything changes when Adams is playing. This is why Robert Tonyan (2-32-0/2) can’t be a consistent TE1, and why I love Allen Lazard ‘the talent’ but fear he’s a WR3 in the shadow of Adams.

 

DAL-WSH

 -- We’ll analyze Ben DiNucci (2-3 for 39 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) more this week if we need to but he’s a scrappy good/decent UDFA QB prospect, accurate thrower but not a pending star -- more a ‘Duck Hodges’ at this time. Whether it’s DiNucci or Andy Dalton the Dallas WRs are dying fast. Amari Cooper (7-80-0/7) is a WR1.5-2.0 and the other guys are WR3s.

 -- Rare that the Football Team will be up big in games and can just run it out to the finish, but when they have the opportunity (like this game), J.D. McKissic (5-35-0, 2-16-0/2) isn’t going to be in the game snagging a bunch of 2-minute offense dump passes like usual. Don’t give up on him because of this event…he’s still a nice BYE week RB option/body to get you through in PPR.

 -- Ezekiel Elliott (12-45-0, 1-6-0/2) had a tipped/dropped pass and a key missed block among other issues this game…he just looks like he’s given up on the season. His numbers were horrible here and we got to see more Tony Pollard (8-16-0, 1-6-0/1), who also didn’t do much…because Dallas has no O-Line for any RB to get working. It’s like the same issue Philly RBs have.

Suddenly, Zeke might not be an RB1 anymore this season. Not ready to say that definitively but for the first time ever…it’s up for debate.

 

DET-ATL

 -- For all the talk of ‘more work’, D’Andre Swift (9-27-0, 4-21-0/5) got his expected work he was drafted for…to be a poor man’s Alvin Kamara…10 +/- carries and 4-8 targets a game. He’s just not as talented as Kamara.

 -- Signs of a Matt Ryan-Hayden Hurst (6-68-0/7) connection is happening…been growing for weeks. 4.0 rec. (5.7 targets), 46.0 yards, 0.25 TDs his last 4 games. He just missed an easy 20+ yard TD in this game, to a Ryan overthrow. Hurst is a solid TE1 option each week now.

 -- Todd Gurley (23-63-2, 2-19-0/3)) has averaged less than 3.0 yards per carry in each of his last two games…he’s really not going off on any opponents, but God love him he’s scoring TDs. Two TDs in this game…6 rushing TDs his last 5 games.

 

CAR-NO

 -- One of my knocks on D.J. Moore (4-93-2/5) is his lack of TD making ability…well, two TDs here and 3 TDs in his last 3 games. His targets are underwhelming in this offense, his catch counts are OK…but three 93-yard games in a row with the TDs/big plays has his FF numbers spiking. There’s not radical move to/increase in work to Moore, he’s just made some great FF plays for points.

 -- Marquez Callaway (8-75-0/10) took advantage of Thomas-Sanders missing…and the fact that Tre’Quan Smith (4-54-0/4) is a waste, to have a nice game. The rookie Callaway might be in position to matter if Michael Thomas stays out or is traded (highly doubtful)…but Callaway had to leave the game late with a leg injury that looked like it might be a 1-2 week+ thing. We’ll know more Mon.-Tue.

 -- Curtis Samuel (1-5-1, 6-48-0/6) is slowly starting to matter again for Carolina. He’s been a terrific NFL player…clutch catches, tough tail back running, great blocking – but that’s been ‘meh’/not much for fantasy. However, I’m starting to see the team pushing him the ball more and more…more targets and carries. He’s back in the WR3/flex discussion.

 

PIT-TEN

 -- Dionte Johnson (9-80-2/15) returns and I want to FF-wait and see how they use him…and, of course, best game of his year. Chase Claypool (1-0-0/1) carried the team the past two weeks…which means 1 official catch/target for -2 yards). Diontae Johnson has destroyed a season in some leagues…

You have him in the lineup, he gets hurt 1 play in, and puts up a zero. You have him sit here, he goes off. And then the vice-versa issue trying to have Claypool in the right times. The combination of Claypool or Diontae in your lineup has been worth unbelievable points the last 4-5 games…but most of us had the wrong one in 65-100% of the time.

You have the talented players drafted at incredible values…and then they have done nothing (officially/in a lineup) in three of their last 4 weeks, even though one of them has been near amazing in each game.

How can I get mad at myself for this? I’m mad at the universe but not that I’m stupid about football. If it’s happened to you…you can’t blame your football knowledge.

 -- Ryan Tannehill (18-30 for 220 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) scuffled early in this game as the Steelers got up big…but by the end there he is with a chance to get it to OT and another 2 TD/0 INT passing game. He continues to be one of the great FF players in the game, but still sitting on people’s benches most weeks.

 -- Jonnu Smith (1-9-0/4) was a ghost much of this game but did have a TD shot or two…just misconnected with Tannehill/good coverage. No move to Anthony Firkser (2-7-0/2), just a weak game of TE usage.

 

TB-LV

 -- Tom Brady (33-45 for 369 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) has an all-star cast developing around him…and he’s wanting to throw, so he’s throwing. Brady is getting unleashed, in a sense, so now you have to think of Brady in terms of a strong QB1 every week…especially when Antonio Brown joins the team…it’s just going to be silly the options defenses has to account for.

 -- Their first chance to both be healthy at the same time…and Bruce Arians is going to an RB duo/split with Leonard Fournette (11-50-0, 6-47-0/7) as a 3rd-down receiving back. Fournette is going to have value in PPR ahead it appears. This was not garbage time…it was on purpose. LeSean McCoy’s days are probably numbered.

 -- Nelson Agholor (5-107-1/8) has definitely taken the #1 WR role for the Raiders. No way Bryan Edwards can get it back on purpose in 2020. Edwards had a window, and he missed it…he let Agholor get time, and Nelson seized the job. A TD in three straight games for Agholor.

 

SF-NE

 -- My guess is we’ve seen the last game of Cam Newton (9-15-for 98 yards, 0 TD/2 INT, 5-19-0) as a Patriot, but it might be he is given one more game. Jarrett Stidham (6-10 for 64 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) needs time to see if he’s any good or not.

Newton now has 2 TDs/7 INTs on the season…not good but fits what he’d been doing in his prior starts the past two years.

Is there a winner among the WRs on a switch? Not sure. It’s not a high-end passing game. Jakobi Meyers (4-60-0/6) would have a lot of time with Stidham on the 2nd-team…but he’s a limited, good hands, professional WR with limited athleticism…not necessarily built for FF greatness, but is good and reliable in Travis Fulgham sort of way. Julian Edelman (1-13-0/3) couldn’t go any worse with a QB switch.

 -- Jeff Wilson (17-112-3, 2-8-0/2) led the way, of course he did…because no one saw it coming. However, on his 3rd TD he came up with a leg injury and was carted off. He’s like to miss a game or more – which means JaMycal Hasty (9-57-0, 1-6-0/1) is in line to be thew starter Week 8 at SEA because Tevin Coleman is very unlikely to be ready until Week 10.

I don’t know how many times I can say it…Jerick McKinnon (3-0-0) is dead, has been for weeks. He might be cut when all these RBs get healthy, if they ever do.

 -- Deebo Samuel (3-7-0, 5-65-0/5) was getting the kind of touches you wanted to see, but then he came up with a leg injury/hamstring…it may be a bad one, like miss a few weeks type situation.

 

KC-DEN

 -- This is what I feared with the weather…muted passing game from KC. Patrick Mahomes (15-23 for 200 yards, 1 TD/0 INTs) played fine…it’s just KC got up, ran the ball, pick-sixed, return game scored…Mahomes just kept it simple because the weather and game dictated it so. A killer for FF output. Nothing you could do. Mahomes was not bothered by the weather at all.

 -- I was excited about Albert Okwuegbunam (7-60-0/7) if Noah Fant (3-38-0/7) was going to be out, but Fant was active so I didn’t think Albert O. would play much. He got some catches in the normal game flow…then added more than half of his day in garbage time. I don’t think there’s a shift to Albert O., but he is getting more chances to play…and Lock loves/knows him. The Lock-Okwuegbunam relationship is budding like a Brady-Gronk 2020, only 50% less effective for FF points….and Albert O. doesn’t start for his team.

 -- Le’Veon Bell (6-39-0) got in the game a good amount…it just wasn’t that exciting. The simple truth is…CEH 2020 is better than Le’Veon 2020. Bell will be a split or supporting role as we go.

  

JAX-LAC

 -- I guess the world is turning on Gardner Minshew (14-27 for 173 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) because of the QB guru Doug Marrone turning on him. How many other QBs in the NFL are worse and/or are playing worse -- but now we’re focusing on Minshew as being awful? You’re not allowed to be a lower drafted QB and succeed…you must be torn down.

This is going to be a mess now, and it forces me to slash all the WRs projections and casts a guy like D.J. Chark (1-26-0/7) into the unknown with what his coach and QB will be in 2021. More on the Minshew stuff this week in the JAX-LAC report.

 -- No such controversy at QB with LAC…Justin Herbert (27-43 for 347 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 9-66-1) is now an established top 5 fantasy QB. No bargains to be had in trade anymore. We’ve been trying to get him for weeks at any discount…no more discounts. The stores are now closed on Herbert for the time being.

 -- I had the strong belief that Herbert’s guy is Keenan Allen (10-125-0/13) and NOT Mike Williams (1-4-0/3) based on watching the tape and charting the flows…that the Williams 2 TD game two weeks ago was because Allen got hurt/left the game. Well, Week 7’s results say I was right in my thinking.

 

SEA-ARI

 -- Russell Wilson (33-50 for 388 yards, 3 TDs/3 INTs, 6-84-0) hit Tyler Lockett (15-200-3/20) for 15 of his 33 completions in this game…a stunning 20 targets in all. It may have been your best FF moment, if you owned Lockett…it may have been your worst, if you faced him.

One of the reasons I started pushing Lockett last week…teams were gonna have to start doubling D.K. Metcalf (2-23-0/3), which would open up the world to Lockett. I just didn’t think it would be this amazing this particular week.

 -- Chase Edmonds (5-58-0, 7-87-0/7) is laying down tape that says he’s the best RB on the Cardinals, and it isn’t even close. We, among others, have been pushing that Edmonds is clearly superior to Kenyan Drake (14-34-0, 1-7-0/2)…and that was never more evident than in this game. The Arizona offense is just different with Edmonds running and receiving.

Arizona has been so busy trying to justify the money they spent on Drake, they completely missed the obvious. If Drake is hurt/out for weeks…he’ll never unseat Edmonds, if Chase gets a couple weeks to work without Drake around.

UDFA rookie RB Jonathan Ward may be the Edmonds backup during this time, but Eno Benjamin, a 6th-round pick rookie will probably get elevated to be the #2.

 -- Chris Carson (5-34-0, 1-7-0/2) is down again. Carlos Hyde (15-68-0, 3-8-0/4) is the likely starter in his place…but DeeJay Dallas (2-18-0/3) has been getting some work, as has Travis Homer (3-10-0). You might think it a Hyde-Homer split, but Dallas will see some work…and Rashaad Penny is eligible to come off of I.R. Week 8/this week.

But we don’t know if Penny is ready to work or not. I can’t imagine they’d activate him and throw him in right away and bench all the others who have been working well all season in supporting roles. Penny, for FF, may be weeks away.

 

 

  =====  FIVE PLAYERS…  =====

 

**NOTE: Tuesday Night Waiver Madness Video Q&A 8:00-9:30pmET, where we will go over more of all these things (below) every Tuesday night**

 

 

Five Waivers To Trust…

*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.

**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me.

***FAAB % mentioned at any time below is based on a 17-20 man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.

 

 

1) WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (B-) *This is depending upon how bad the Deebo Samuel injury is.

If Deebo is going to miss 1-2-3 weeks, Aiyuk is going to step into that similar Deebo easy push-pass, jet sweep kinda roll he was quasi-doing anyway. At Seattle and GB the next two weeks would be a good run for Aiyuk as the main WR.

I’m not willing to spend big FAAB budget on this, because by now you should have a functioning WR group…adding another WR2 is

 

2) RB JaMycal Hasty, SF (C-)

Jeff Wilson was having a banner day then he hurt his thigh and was carted out of the stadium (after he scored his 3rd TD of the game). Tevin Coleman is not expected back Week 8…he’s more Week 9. JaMycal Hasty is in-line to start Week 8…albeit at Seattle (a top run defense).

Hasty looks really good and has a future…but he likely gets a start Week 8, splitting some with Jerick McKinnon. Hasty then likely splits with Tevin Coleman Week 9 but could be more of the lead that week. By Week 10, Raheem Mostert could be returning and Tevin more healed. Hasty is a play for Weeks 8-9 and then it will be suspect what his role is from there. Regardless, just know he looks good behind this great SF O-Line.

Hasty’s FAAB pricing should be similar to whatever Boston Scott’s was in your league last week.

 

3) RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (C-)

Depending upon the severity of Devonta Freeman’s injury here. If this is a one-week thing then Gallman facing Tampa Bay next week is BAD news. If Freeman is going to miss several weeks, then I’m more interested in a live body being the lead back for a few games.

I’ve been saying for weeks that I thought Gallman looked better than Freeman and might take over that job. I stopped saying it last week…gave up…and, now…here we are.

 

4) RB Zack Moss, BUF (C-)

I only have one interest in Moss…acquiring and then trading. All this week there will be tall tales of how great Moss is and how he is the future over Devin Singletary, etc. Could be true, who knows. I just know this – the Buffalo Bills RBs are dead in 2020. They have no run blocking and Josh Allen likes to run for the short TDs…and he doesn’t love throwing to the RBs.

I only get Moss to trade him. I’m not investing any/much FAAB to do it. I only get with low investment to put in as a throw in player on a multiplayer deal.

 

5) WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (C-)

Shepard is back after missing Week 2 on. He picked up right where he left off with another 6-catch game. Daniel Jones has something with Shepard, and Sterling works shorter/closer to the QB which is easier for a very limited, timid Daniel Jones to offload passes to.

It’s not a wild theory…Shepard has 51 catches in 9 full games with Jones…5.6 catches per game and 4 TDs…a pace for 7 in a 16-game season trends working with Jones.

 

6) TE Richard Rodgers (D-/F+)

I put him on here for the TE desperate and more so for the Dallas Goedert owners. If you’re waiting for Goedert and dying at TE otherwise, Rodgers can be your bridge to when Goedert returns. Next week, Rodgers would get a very bad Dallas defense against the TE, then a BYE Week 9, and then Goedert should be back. Rodgers is a decent TE one-week (or more if Goedert is out longer) rental right now.

 

-----------------------------------------------

 

Five Waivers To Distrust…

 

1) WR Scottie Miller, TB

I know…a 100+ yard game, and the Bucs are a juggernaut offense now – but I’m not getting sucked in again. The last time Miller looked great with Brady he got no targets on TNF and gave us a goose egg. Then hardly anything the next week either.

Brady will throw to Gronk and Antonio Brown and then some Godwin ahead…everything else will be random events, including Miller.

 

2) QB Jarrett Stidham, NE

The dysfunction of the Patriots’ offense goes beyond the QB. They have issues all over. Stidham may start this week and get people interested, but more likely they let Cam try to beat Buffalo in what will be the Patriots’ last stand. After a loss to Buffalo the Stidham era will likely begin, but whenever it happens -- it won’t be great for FF.

 

3) TE Drew Sample, CIN

After a few weeks of nothing, Sample saw a 6-target game and had decent PPR numbers. I’m not buying it unless totally desperate at TE next week.

 

4) TE Harrison Bryant, CLE

Emerging player for sure…as a decent/useful option IF Austin Hooper is out, like he was this week. But when Hooper returns, Bryant returns to his supporting cast role. If Hooper misses next week, you got a shot with Bryant to be OK for FF…especially if they traded Njoku by midweek.

 

Just four. Flirted with Lamical Perine on the list but took him off. He’ll get touches. He’s BYE week low-end hope for the needy.

 

------------------------------

 

-- Five Buy Low Players… --

*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*

 

1) WR Chase Claypool, PIT

Here’s the thing…not everyone (else) who has Claypool know what they have. They know he scored 4 TDs a couple weeks ago, and then he scored a TD the following week…but on limited touches in the follow up. Now, Diontae returns and goes off…and Claypool is virtually shutout.

People will fear they have a Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Tre’Quan Smith type thing that hit for a week and then disappears into the ether from there. I don’t believe CC is going to disappear or be a nothing for FF ahead.   

The door to acquire him got kicked open in redraft, and also in Dynasty…the euphoria from a few weeks ago was just snuffed out by this week’s egg. It’s time to pounce if you want in.

Can he succeed with Diontae back, after what you just witnessed? That’s what we’ll explore this week. I find it hard to believe someone of his talent would just go away to nothing now.

Trade Valuation? Redraft: WR2.0…and falling. You’re looking for nonbelievers. True believers aren’t trading him. Dynasty: WR1.5-2.0…throw your hype names at him to get. You won’t regret it. Again, if his owner is a true believer they’ll reject or get scared and pass. All you can do is make an offer and see what they do.

 

2) QB Josh Allen, BUF

Should’ve had two TD passes in this game (one sweet 20+ toss called back due to an unidentified by the TV analysts illegal formation)…and then everyone would still be cool with him, because it would’ve been 300+ yards passing, nearly 50 yards rushing with 2 pass TDs. Alas, he had zero TDs here.

No TDs here in Week 7, previously so-so in the rain game Week 6, and a so-so/good game in some drizzle vs. TENN Week 5…so, they’ve been talking about Allen’s fade/fall for a week+ now, and this Week 7 game pushes it along more. I’m still bought into what I’m seeing.

Trade Valuation? #9-12 type QB…not a top 3-5. Find the panicked. Carson Wentz is hotter for people now. The opportunities to bottom fish here are really favorable this week.

 

3) WR Stefon Diggs, BUF

Because people are in fear of/sour on Josh Allen…they tend not to get as excited about Stefon Diggs. I think Diggs will be a WR1 in PPR all year.

Trade Valuation? WR1.5+…find the person who thinks they need to jump off Diggs before Allen brings them down.

 

4) RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC

Le’Veon Bell fear for CEH is rising, and for good reason – but if you believe CEH will drive more of the bus in the relationship…now is the time to dive in.

Trade Valuation? RB2…if you try to deal with a true believer, you’ll get nowhere. You’re trying to find the secretly worried that he’ll be an RB2-2.5 ahead as Bell wins the day. I think they’ll split but that CEH will be more of the lead guy because he’s more talented in 2020 than Bell.

 

5) TE Jonnu Smith, TEN

Jonnu missed time with an injury and now puts up a dud game. If you’re dying at TE, and Jonnu is the current owners #2 TE…you might be able to make a steal.

Trade Valuation? TE2…like he’s a near waiver wire guy in a regular sized FF league because he’s been a ghost for a few weeks. I’m not predicting a great uprising for Jonnu…it’s just he’s good/solid and if you are dying at TE with Higbee, Fells, Schultz, etc.

 

6) RB Raheem Mostert, SF

Planned to be back Week 10…that’s the plan. Unsure of the reality. However, if you’re sitting pretty and can afford to acquire/sit on such luxuries…when Mostert returns, he’ll be a top RB1 talent/producer.

Trade Valuation? It’s not a debate on his talent, it’s how long is his current owner willing to wait…and if it’s not much, then acquire like he’s an RB2. There’s a discount for waiting.  

 

-------------------------

 

-- Five Sell High Players… --

*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or values thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*

 

1) WR D.J. Moore, CAR

Coming off a 2 TD week is always a good time to look to sell, but Moore has had three nice weeks in a row and has a name people adore. A closer look at him reveals low targeting, big plays/fluky-ish plays for his TDs. You might be able to cash out and get something you really need and replace him at WR pretty easily.

Sell Valuation? WR1.5…people LOVE D.J. Moore, go find the ones that do. You don’t have to sell…just trying to leverage hot.

 

2) RB Todd Gurley, ATL

He’s scoring TDs like crazy but his yards per carry/general output is weakening. He’s not a must-sell, because he’s a live body RB that’s doing good…but is a name that is scoring TDs at a desired position that you might be able to flip into things you need/want more than Gurley. Without the TDs, Gurley’s numbers are getting pretty soft.

Sell Valuation? RB1.5…his FF scoring YTD is very good, no need to give him away just explore to see if you can leverage him into something/s you really wanted.  

 

3) RB Boston Scott, PHI

He scored a game-winning TD on a national TV solo night game…that helps pump value. If Sanders is out again, then Scott is a legit starting RB for a team desperate with BYE issues…or the Sanders owner. Sanders may be back Week 8, or if Scott is ‘the man’ Week 8…it’s a bad Philly O-Line to work behind, again. Then a Week 9 bye. You got one week, max, left.

Sell Valuation? RB2-2.5, if you don’t need him – sell to the Sanders’ owner or other…you gotta try to cash in on it. Might not work…but you never know…

 

4) WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

Big game from JuJu, after many duds in a row. This is a chance for you to cash out on a name people love.

Sell Valuation? WR1.5-2.0…go find the secret JuJu lover. If they exist…

 

5) RB Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, BUF

We’re close to Singletary being a drop in redraft, so get what you can. I see no hope here for FF numbers.

This week we’ll see a bunch of Zack Moss good vibes, I’d sell him too if I could. The Buffalo Bills RB/RBs are of little value for FF.

Sell Valuation? RB2-2.5…in redraft, pretty much whatever you can get. In Dynasty, about the same thing.

 

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 -- Five Deep Sleeper Waivers Pickups… -- 

*Total flyer/lowly owned or not-owned players

 

1) WR Marcus Johnson, IND

With TYH dying and while Pittman-Parris remain out, Johnson is stepping up and is showing some nice connection with Philip Rivers. It could change…it could be a blip…but the last two games have been pretty good between them and last week they just missed on a 150+ yards and 2 TDs game, but still posted a 100+ yard effort.

 

2) WR John Brown, BUF

If he gets back practicing full and declared healthy…you have to have interest in the #2 weapon/target on a high-functioning, downfield throwing offense.

 

3) WR Rashard Higgins, CLE

Assuming OBJ is out, the best relationship Baker has of all his WRs/TEs is Rashad Higgins. When OBJ went out Week 7…Higgins had a nice game, albeit against Cincy. I bet the Browns trade for a WR, but if they don’t…Higgins will have a big role he’ll inherit.

 

4) TE Irv Smith, MIN

Back-to-back games with 4 catches and 40-50+ yards. He’s starting to heat up. By Thursday, Kyle Rudolph could be traded and Irv the official/new top dog TE for the team. When that happens, he has a real chance to be a Top 10-12 PPR TE.

 

5) RB Tevin Coleman, SF

Could return Week 8 but may not be until Week 9. When Coleman is ready, he’ll start with Mostert out…but likely split with JaMycal Hasty. If Mostert can’t get healthy…Coleman becomes an important card to hold on this excellent run game.

 

6) RB Rashaad Penny, SEA

Eligible to return Week 8. Only good as a Carson cuff, but we don’t even know if Penny is rehabbed OK. Long shot play here that would have to be timed with a shock Carson injury AND Penny 100% healthy to play. Maybe too-too far a long shot to bother with. Could be traded at the deadline too, if healthy.

 

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 -- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS --

 

1) WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB

When Davante Adams is back, no one else really matters in the passing game…plus, MVS sucks…and Allen Lazard will be back in a few weeks.

 

2) WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO

Tre’Quan Smith cannot produce when half the WR depth chart is gone…he’s certainly not going to matter when Michael Thomas returns. Tre’Quan blows. You get sucked in when he has one decent game every 5-8 games.

 

3) WR N’Keal Harry, NE

He just looks awful…looks so soft as a player. Cam is terrible and Stidham isn’t like Herbert-Burrow, etc., gobbling up stats. Stidham has talent but he’s not going to light it up for FF right now.

 

4) WR Michael Gallup, DAL

Gallup didn’t matter when Dak was flying high, so he sure isn’t mattering with the law firm of Dalton & DiNucci. What are you hoping for here? You’re going to guess when he has his good game? And then do you think he’ll have another after that on this offense?

 

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 -- STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS --

 

1) Colts-DST

Dropped by some because they were on a BYE. This DST is good for Week 8 at DET. Good not great. Then you got issues with this DST Weeks 9-16. This is a one-week play Week 8, not a sneaky you got the great shutdown DST off waivers – they got half their season’s scoring on two pick-sixes on the Jets a few weeks ago.

 

2) Titans-DST

Played good games v. BUF and PIT in the last 3 weeks. It’s not a great defensive unit…it’s ‘OK’. The Titans try to control the clock with Derrick Henry and uber-efficient Tannehill, which helps support this defense not being on the field as much. For the people that have been missing out on a consistent DST or looking for a 2nd one to add for streaming/security…it’s something to consider.

Week 8 = at CIN (YES, bad O-Line)

Week 9 = v. CHI (YES)

Week 10 = v. IND (YES)

Week 11 = at BAL (NO)

Week 12 = at IND (YES)

Week 13 = CLE (YES)

Week 14 = at JAX (YES)

Week 15 = DET (YES)

From Weeks 8-15, you can use this DST with some confidence seven times in 8 weeks. They burned their BYE in Week 4. 

 

3) Packers-DST

This is a long shot DST, scraping the bottom of the barrel. They’ve held three of their last 5 opponents to 21 points or fewer in a game. It’s not the worst defense ever. It has a good offense supporting it.

They have a ‘potential’/hope schedule ahead, and they have some talent on defense...but it’s not an obvious good/great defense, as a unit so far…but it shows some potential.

Week 8 = vs. Kirk Cousins, who has a ton of picks.

Week 9 = at SF who might not have any RBs or Deebo in this one.  

Week 10 = vs. JAX, who is falling apart.

Week 11 = at IND with turnover prone Rivers.

Week 12 = vs. Foles/CHI

Week 13 = vs. PHI with their bad O-Line.

Week 14 = at DET, not a bad matchup.

 

4) Redskins-DST

With the Dak injury, suddenly this got more interesting as a sleeper DST…as they showed Week 7 (and get Dallas again Week 12)

Week 8 = BYE

Week 9 = v. NYG (sweet)

Week 10 = at DET (good-ish)

Week 11 = CIN (not awful)

Week 12 = at DAL (nice)

You might can use this defense Weeks 9-12, IF the offense can lend any support. It’s a risky proposition.

 

5) Dolphins-DST

(below) From my push for the Chiefs-DST to go get several weeks ago…(and why you will want the MIA-DST with them)…*Updated for the latest schedule changes.

You know what pairing works great with KC…the Chiefs and the Dolphins…

Week 8 = KC at NYJ

Week 9 = KC v. CAR

Week 10 = MIA v. LAC (KC bye) *This just went ‘bad’ on the schedule change. Not a damning matchup, but not favorable (used to be v. NYJ)

Week 11 = MIA at DEN (KC at LV)

Week 12 = MIA at NYJ (KC at TB)

Week 13 = KC v. DEN or MIA v. CIN

Week 14 = KC at MIA

From Weeks 8-15 you get 7 weeks, and 2 matchups with DEN and 2 with the Jets…over half vs. DEN and NYJ. Miami doesn’t have a terrible defense either.

 

6) Seahawks-DST

This is for those planning ahead…and despite the fact that Seattle has a horrific defense in general…

Weeks 12-15:

Week 12 = at PHI

Week 13 = NYG

Week 14 = NYJ

Week 15 = at WSH

 

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 -- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --

 

1) LB Cole Holcomb, WSH

Last week I said: I love this player, which means NFL head coaches won’t…that happens a lot at the ILB position. Either they’re wrong or I’m wrong. I see their run game numbers and coaching longevity, so I’m not ruling out ‘it’s them’. Any whooo…

Holcomb wasn’t named starter out of training camp, which was a shock (to me). He got hurt Week 1 and has been out of action. He came back Week 6 and ended up starting and playing 65% of the snaps and landing 6 tackles and a TFL. If I know he’s a full 100% snap starter for WFT…he’s a top 10 ILB IDP producer. I just don’t know how committed the team is…but they did start him here. Hopefully, it’s time

This week: I think Holcomb might have had his breakout performance against Dallas Week 7. He had a sack, a pick, 2 QB hits along with 5 tackles. He was all over in various parts of this game. He may finally be trusted to play as a starter/full games now. We’ll see.

 

2) DE Malik Reed, DEN

Back-to-back 2.0 sack games the past two weeks. He’s not an athletic ‘freak’ pass rusher, but a try hard, efficient…tries very hard pass rusher.

 

3) DE Brian Burns, CAR

Burns is getting to the QB a bunch of late but hadn’t been closing the deal with sacks as much. He’s due – and he got a sack Week 7. He’s really coming on as a menace/force pass rushing the past few weeks.

 

4) LB Krys Barnes, GB

I think the UDFA rookie leads the NFL in total tackles per snap played…

169 snaps played, 43 total tackles, a tackle every 3.93 plays…which is an easy 10-12+ total tackles per game pace for a full game played.

He’s started the last 4 games, but then he usually plays about 50% of the game snaps if he’s lucky…until Week 6 where he played 88% becoming ‘the man in the middle’...but only played 40% of the snaps Week 7 (left midway due to a shoulder injury). We have to see if the injury is minor or not for the weeks ahead. 



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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