2020 Week 8: Three Things from Sunday Games + Top 5’s Waivers/Buy-Sell/Sleepers/DST/IDPs
Another slightly above 50% win-rate week trending across FFM-land (hopefully 55%+ after tonight/MNF)…not good, not at this time. I need 60-65%+.
I see four impact items that defined many wins-losses this week:
1) The Mahomes and/or Tyreek FFMers…mostly all cruised to victory.
2) Those who faced Dalvin Cook typically lost…some took him down with Mahomes/Tyreek.
3) Somehow, I think everyone I know faced the Eagles defense and were rolling towards victory and then the should have never been fumble return TD followed by a purposeful safety (that was also counted as a fumble) ruined sure wins. I have never received so many texts/emails about one event as it happened in 10+ years of doing this as this moment. How did everyone collectively face the Eagles-DST so much this week in FFM-land?
4) Diontae Johnson wrecked an FF-eek again. It’s becoming comical now…like a tragic comedy.
Diontae’s scoring his last games for PPR:
Week 3 = 0.9 points (in my lineups)
Week 4 = bye
Week 5 = 0.8 points (mostly in my lineups)
Week 6 = inactive
Week 7 = 29.0 points (mostly sitting, due to coming off an injury…usually played Claypool for his 1-point event)
Week 8 = 0.6
Weeks 3, 5, 7, 8…I had Diontae in or out at the wrong time, basically making my FF teams play -10 to -15 down from the jump, before anything else happened. A stretch of games most FFM teams with Diontae went (1-3), but with +12 from Diontae (or other) it would’ve been (3-1) by and large.
How could you avoid it? How can you predict freak injuries a play into a game…or a game where he doesn’t miss a beat? Three games he has been hurt on his first touch and missed time in the game, or missed all the rest of the game. He had two 20+ point games since Week 2, and three less than 1 point FF efforts (in PPR). How is that even possible?
It’s happened. Nothing we can do about it now. Can’t re-do the draft in your mind, try as you may. Can’t ‘shoulda started ____’…if it were that obvious, you would have done it then – the week you/I tried to get cute benching him to wait-and-see -- he scored 29.0 PPR pts. It is what it is, and all we can do is grind on and try to get to the playoffs. Diontae has taken away hopes of a #1 seed for some, and even making the playoffs for others. It’s been a very strange season with the Pittsburgh WRs.
You think it’s strange so far? Wait until you have to decide who to start Week 9 among Diontae and/or Claypool…
Whatever I say, do the opposite…I implore you.
Most FFM-based teams are tracking an average record of 4.5 wins, 3.5 losses. The distribution curve is mostly clustered at 4 or 5 wins, then 3 wins and 6 wins in an equal, smaller bucket…and then rare 2 wins but that more than 7 wins. Very rare/doesn’t exist 0 or 8 wins tracking right now.
7 wins in the end is likely a playoff spot in most leagues (on average, mostly). 6 wins could get there in some weird divisions. 8 wins needed for the playoffs in some…and 8 wins is about a lock for most playoffs this year. Today’s (4-4) teams need to go (3-2) in the next five weeks to get to the 7-win mark…totally reasonable. Some 2-3 win teams (or an occasional 4 win team) today need to make a (4-1) run to have hope from here…all you can do (in redraft) in that case is just focus on winning this week and then reassess your odds of making the playoffs going into Week 10.
I’m going to keep grinding for the current 2-3-4 wins teams, but just as much so for all the 5-6-7 win teams -- we have to keep the pedal pressed down. This season is like none other for so many reasons I cannot enumerate them. Because it’s so strange of a season, I’m going to keep charging in every situation until I’m officially eliminated, not just wanting to quit in my mind. I’m going for #1 seeds and absolute elimination ahead, depending upon the situation. I’m not quitting on any situation with a breath of life in redraft (dynasty has a different strategy/outlook depending).
What else are we going to do with our time? Why can’t you win five in-a-row by pure luck? We’re due for it. It starts with a win in Week 9.
Here’s what a younger Joe Biden thinks of our FF-chances ahead: https://youtu.be/Ne56PCUFKDs
Good luck to those that need it on MNF tonight!!!
-- Here’s Three Things/quick notes that caught my attention from each Sunday game (subject to change as I rewatch all this week) --
-- I mentioned last week that Jakobi Meyers (6-58-0/10) was flashing a signal that he was about to be a kinda-sorta, less exciting Travis Fulgham breakout for the Pats…here it is/was. He’s the #1 WR for the Patriots for the ROS, I believe. It will be good for PPR, not amazing…WR2.5 type PPR work.
-- Will I write an impassioned plea for Josh Allen (11-18 for 154 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 10-23-1) this week? Not sure. Have to rewatch this. I didn’t see any issues, but the weather was sloppy and both teams ran the ball 30+ times…passing opps were limited. A 2020 low 18 pass attempts for Allen here. I’m not panicked…just tired of rain and slog games for Buffalo of late. Three rain/wet/slick games in a row.
-- I thought Damien Harris (16-102-1) was in line for a ‘gut feeling player of the week’ opportunity here. He looked very solid, like a real NFL lead back. It can’t be long before I start reminding everyone of the debate that the NFL should have had but didn’t – Damien Harris is arguably as good/better all-around than Josh Jacobs, his Alabama teammate drafted the same year…but drafted far apart in status.
-- I tried to warn/alert the world about the Miami-DST (1 D TD, 1 S/T TD, 2 fumbles, 2 picks, 2 sacks) and their upside as a top 5-10 unit in the NFL…
I had some confidence in Miami-DST against the Rams, but thought it had obvious risk as well (the Rams are a sound offense).
From our ‘Upside DST of the Week’ pitch for Week 8:
One of the emerging, sneaky best defenses in the NFL...as I've been opining for weeks. This isn't a great matchup, but it isn't bad. The Dolphins could make a real statement here with more savvy/less turnover prone Tua in to support a very good defense. Might be the surprise of the week.
The Dolphins defense is #1 in best 3rd-down stop percentage and #3 in the NFL in PPG allowed (just behind (BAL and LAR).
Ahead for Miami: At ARI might not be bad Week 9, vs. LAC Week 10 could be OK due to the LAC O-Line issues…but then it’s hot after that – at DEN, at NYJ, v. CIN Weeks 11-12-13. The Dolphins defense is coming into its own, but I also saw a lot of defensive injuries for them this game – we’ll have to see the status/severity of them this week.
-- Darrell Henderson (8-47-0, 1-11-0/1) looked but got hurt and missed about half the game+. Malcolm Brown (10-40-0, 2-17-0/2) and Cam Akers (9-35-0, 1-19-0/1) split the touches the rest of the way which starts to bring an RB-trio situation coming ahead if Henderson is fine for Week 9.
-- Tua Tagovailoa (12-22 for 93 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 2-0-0)…the numbers tell the tale. He was very lucky his defense staked him to a lead and held LAR off because Tua did nothing. This looks like a major problem ahead. Ryan Fitzpatrick needs to stay ready/loose.
-- What happened to Diontae Johnson (1-6-0/3)? Well, (1) I had to start him several places…so he exists only to destroy my 2020 season. (2) He got hurt early and missed a chunk of the game…because, of course he did. He’s Diontae Johnson….this is what he does…his home address in 2020 is ‘Blue Tent’. (3) The Ravens were focused on shutting him off and did.
What do we do with him next week? The opposite of whatever I’m feeling.
-- J.K. Dobbins (15-113-0, 1-8-0/2) got his first real NFL chance at major touches…and he rushed for 100+ yards against the #1-2 run defense in the NFL. Not bad. JKD looked very good, better than Mark Ingram has this season…but Gus Edwards (16-87-1, 0-0-0/1) also looked solid as always. A maddening RB-trio may be coming here.
-- New PIT starting ILB (for Devin Bush) Robert Spillane (11 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PDs) picked off Lamar right away and returned it for a pick-six. He looks totally fine, IDP worthy since being thrown in as an emergency starter. Huge FF numbers here this week.
However, late Sunday night the Steelers traded for veteran ILB Avery Williamson…so Spillane’s outlook ahead just got a bit murkier.
-- It wasn’t a huge FF game for Joe Burrow (26-37 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) but considering his O-Line injuries going into this game – it may have been Burrow’s best, savviest performance of 2020 to date. Burrow is going to finish 2020 as a QB1 in the end…he’s too good not to, even overcoming the Bengals organizational drag.
Joe Montana walks among us again…
-- Where did D’Onta Foreman (5-37-0) come from? I thought he was done in the NFL…here he was, slimmed down and looking good. The one-time Texas U. star and well-thought of NFL prospect ate and injury’d his way out of the league for a couple years. He’s back.
Foreman is the most Henry-like RB the Titans have on their roster, should something befall Henry. Unless they sign Bo Scarbrough (which they should).
-- Time to worry about Jonnu Smith (2-29-0/2)…since A.J. Brown has returned + Jonnu suffering an injury that had him miss a week, Jonnu has averaged 1.3 rec. (2.7 targets), 17.0 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game since Week 6.
TEs have been mostly painful this year…Jonnu joins the pain club.
LV-CLE (hard to make any sweeping judgements here it was very windy, raining sideways at times, cold, etc.)
-- If targets = trust, in this game in tough conditions, post-OBJ injury here were the Browns top targets:
11 = Jarvis Landry
03 = H Bryant
03 = Higgins
03 = Njoku
Not a great, ringing endorsement/start for Rashard Higgins (without OBJ)…who always gets hopes up as a Baker BFF, then never delivers.
-- The Browns traded for JAX SAF Ronnie Harrison (10 tackles, 1 PD) several weeks ago and he’s finally healthy and starting…and he has 9.5 total tackles, 1.0 PDs, 0.5 sacks per game his last two games as starter.
-- I dropped PK Daniel Carlson (3/4 FGs) in fear of the wind gusts in Cleveland, and on his first FG attempt his solid kick suddenly took a left turn at Albuquerque and I wondered why any team would try to kick a FG this game. Carlson then hit three short FGs in three attempts to close out the game.
All the wind games…the shorter range FGs were mostly all fine/normal.
NYJ-KC (hard to read into much here…the best team in the NFL played the worst one…and the score reflected that)
-- Frank Gore (10-30-0) was questionable for the game, but he ended up active and took more touches than LaMical Perine (8-27-0, 2-6-0/2) for reasons I will never understand. I can only assume Perine is NOT the O-C’s new favorite guy. Prior game, he was…not this week.
-- Le’Veon Bell (6-7-0, 3-31-0/3) looks like he has aged about 20 years in the past two weeks. If you think he’s taking over for CEH (6-21-0, 3-31-0/3)…make sure you have a Plan B.
-- KC SAF Daniel Sorenson (9 tackles) is rising again…led the team in tackles here. He’s playing more and more snaps as of late. Back-to-back games with 9 total tackles for him.
-- Jordan Wilkins (20-89-1, 1-24-0/1) outplayed Jonathan Taylor (11-22-0, 2-9-0/3). I think some of the issue is – if Taylor is in, teams go play the run and dare Rivers to beat them. When Wilkins is in, they aren’t as sold out to him. Wilkins could be the new/quasi-starter for the moment, a hot-hand for a week if you will…where he doesn’t officially start but takes the most touches – at least for the next week until he flops. Tough schedule ahead and Wilkins isn’t anywhere near as good as Taylor.
-- Michael Pittman (1-6-0/1) returned in a limited way. Marcus Johnson (2-39-0/4) didn’t have a follow up stat performance to his last game…in fact, no one really broke out for the Colts WR group…11 players caught passes, those with 3 catches led the team, no WR or TE had over 50 yards receiving. T.Y. Hilton (2-9-0/2) died again.
-- The Lions got down big but didn’t start working D’Andre Swift (6-1-0, 3-22-0/4) much at all. Not even a bunch of dump-off pass junk. Swift is just a random RB2 right now.
-- I mean, Dalvin Cook (30-163-3, 2-6-1/3)…what a performance!! He looks the best I’ve ever seen him in the year 2020. Congrats to him, I own no shares and never believed he’d be this good -- that’s a blight on my record.
-- More growing trust between Aaron Rodgers and Robert Tonyan (5-79-0/7)…2nd-most targets among all Packers this week. Good targets, smart shots, and a few downfield throws this game to Tonyan. He’s emerging as a TE1 out of the rando TEs that popped up a few weeks ago – of course, the bar is low to be called a TE1 these days.
-- It’s possible Allen Lazard is activated next week. They need him because Marquez Valdes-Scantling (1-19-0/1) is a waste and Equanimeous St Brown (1-12-0/3) hasn’t stepped up at all. Lazard walks right back in as the #2 WR when he arrives back…unless it’s Will Fuller.
The Packers are going to add a WR at the trade deadline, count on it,
-- A positive step forward for the Mike Williams (5-99-1/8) and Justin Herbert connection…a first true sign of Herbert wanting to go to Williams with a purpose. If Herbert is gonna shine, someone besides Keenan Allen (9-67-1/11) has to go-with. It looks like it is Williams.
…and not Hunter Henry (4-33-0/4), who looks awful by the way.
-- Troymaine Pope (10-67-0, 5-28-0/7) getting work means this is even more of a cluster backfield…an RB trio. Pope is known as a 3rd-down/hurry up offense passing game back, journeyman that he is, but he got touches over failing Joshua Kelley (7-32-0, 1-0-0/1) and is now in the mix for touches with Justin Jackson (17-89-0, 3-53-0/5).
-- Tim Patrick (DNP) didn’t make it to active but note that he is the Broncos best WR and they face -- at ATL, at LV…two dome/turf games ahead against bad pass defenses. Patrick could matter the next two weeks if he is healthy.
-- Finally, Darnell Mooney (5-69-1/6) put up some decent FF numbers. He’s been in range, circling around a good FF game and he finally got one. He looks good, for a rookie especially, but this passing game is so painful it’s hard to trust Mooney for any consistency or follow through.
-- I also don’t trust this is the start of anything with Anthony Miller (8-73-0/11)…lot’s of targets, it was lot’s of throwing by the Bears, Miller got a good workload but he’s just such a nothing of a talent.
-- Jared Cook (5-51-1/7) now has 4 TDs in his last 5 games in 2020. That makes 13 TDs in his last 16 regular season games with the Saints. Why does FF society keep dismissing this guy?
-- I’m shocked! An NFL team decided not to double D.K. Metcalf (12-161-2/15)…seemed like a pretty savvy plan by the Fist-Pumper General, D-C Robert Saleh. Metcalf only had 12 catches for 161 and 2 TDs. Credit Arizona D-C Vance Joseph…he figured this out two weeks ago. It doesn’t matter…DKM is the best fantasy WR in the game…with Davante Adams.
-- Tevin Coleman (3-20-0) started out fine and then left with injury, never to return. JaMycal Hasty (12-29-1, 1-2-0/1) may be the Week 9 starter against a very soft run defense of the Packers.
-- If Jimmy Garoppolo (11-16 for 84 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) can’t get right, it’s going to put a damper on Deebo Samuel’s (DNP) return…and Deebo is likely back Week 10. Facing GB on TNF Week 9…who knows if Jimmy G. will be ready to go or not …which affects Brandon Aiyuk (8-91-1/11) and George Kittle (2-39-0/4) a bit, unless they all garbage time with Nick Mullens vs. GB.
-- We all waited for this triumphant return…and Dallas Goedert (1-15-0/1) gets one target in his return? Wow, awesome…next Gronk!! Until further notice, we have to see Goedert in Philly with Wentz as a random back end TE1 hopeful…mixed in with the Tonyan, Schultz crowd until he proves otherwise. He’s way more talented than them…but we need to see Wentz making it work. With Fulgham emerging, and Reagor back…our first reveal on Goedert without Ertz was pretty terrible. It might have been ‘rust’.
-- Before you hit the panic button on all FF-things Dallas…Andy Dalton is at least plausible, when he returns. The problem is the schedule…facing Pittsburgh Week 9 and then a BYE. I’m not sure Amari or Zeke will matter Weeks 9-10, as you hope for Weeks 11-16 to be a better stretch.
-- Strong game for the Eagles-DST here…the question is, can you hold them through their Week 9 BYE for at NYG, at CLE Weeks 10-11? You’d like to for sure.
===== FIVE PLAYERS… =====
**NOTE: Tuesday Night Waiver Madness Video Q&A 8:00-9:30pmET, where we will go over more of all these things (below) every Tuesday night** --Time change coming with ELECTION day Tuesday--
Five Waivers To Trust…
*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.
**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me.
***FAAB % mentioned at any time below is based on a 17-20 man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.
1a) WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (C)
It looked to me like Wentz sees Reagor has his best pitch-and-catch WR, and for his part…Reagor looked strong in his return – he looked confident, he looked stronger (been working out while he was out). He’s in a good spot to put up nice PPR numbers ahead…and rookie WRs have tended to rule this year. No three-year nonsense.
1b) WR Mike Williams, LAC (C)
The #2 WR on one of the top passing games in the NFL, and we saw signs of it coming together in Week 8. I’ll be up for taking a look now…I think I saw the proper signs of a connection here, the first time I’ve really seen it.
3) TE Austin Hooper, CLE (C)
If you have TE issues, Hooper has a BYE Week 9 to get more rehabbed and then he can return to resume his normal starting spot – and, now, with OBJ out he might be a strong #2 target for Baker…a #1 target some games. Harrison Bryant will play some snaps in ’12’ personnel but he was before. Hooper had been the clear #1 TE prior to his injury…I don’t think he loses that.
4) RB Damien Harris, NE (C)
Le’Veon Bell has one 100+ yard rushing game in his last 27 games back to 2017, and people still love him. Harris has two 100+ yard rushing games in his first 4 starts, and everyone shoulder shrugs. The fading Patriots might use the rest of 2020 to put Harris through the grind to be ready for a main role in 2021. I think there’s a bit of upside here…not for sure lost among the Belichick rotation…but maybe. Sony Michel may return and muddy this up.
5) PK Daniel Carlson, LV (C-)
One of the top kickers in FF in 2020. Dropped by many, including me, for fear of the wind gusts in Cleveland…but he ended up making 3 FGs anyway. Here’s the thing…the schedule ahead is awesome for a kicker in the winter…
Week 9 = at LAC
Week 10 = home/dome v. DEN
Week 11 = home/dome v. KC
Week 12 = at ATL/dome
Week 13 = at NYJ…unfavorable, outdoors, cold.
Week 14 = home/dome v. IND
Week 15 = home/dome v. LAC
Week 16 = home/dome v. MIA
Week 17 = at DEN altitude.
Six dome events in his next 8 games. One of the two not in a dome is in California.
6) WR Curtis Samuel, CAR (C-)
Starting to become the most dependable WR for the Panthers…a guy who will take 1-2 carries a game even with CMC back, and he’s becoming the most reliable go-to throw for Teddy on 3rd-downs/crucial moments. He’s a WR3 with upside right now…again.
7) RB Jordan Wilkins, IND (D)
There will be a lot of talk of him surpassing Jonathan Taylor this week. I doubt it, but if he does…he’s OK not great. There’s also Nyheim Hines taking touches, there’s Taylor still there…a starting role for Indy isn’t amazing, nor is Wilkins – but he is someone taking touches and doing OK with them for a moment, perhaps.
Five Waivers To Distrust…
1) WR Marvin Jones, DET
Finally, Marvin Jones does something…after I cut him long ago. There’s no renaissance here, not even if Kenny Golladay is out hurt…KG was out for a few games earlier this season and Marvin was mostly a ghost then too.
2) WR Anthony Miller, CHI
Big targets Week 8, but he’s still the #3 WR and usually the 4th-5th option play-to-play on a bad passer output team. No upswing happening here.
3) RB Cam Akers, LAR
Got some touches this week when Darrell Henderson went down, but he’s been hard-pressed to even see snaps the past few games. If Henderson is out, Akers likely gets 20-30% of the touches, maybe 50% for a week until DH returns…but the Rams have a BYE Week 9 and Henderson gets an extra week to recoup and take his touches back.
4) QB Philip Rivers, IND
Back-to-back 3 passing TD games for Rivers. Is it a revival or a blip? Facing CIN and DET to do it…it’s probably a blip. Facing Baltimore Week 9…probably going to be ugly.
5) RB Nyheim Hines, IND
Hines has these blips and then you try to see if it’s going to become a thing…and it falls flat the following week. You can never guess the Hines weeks of goodness, so why work hard to try? He’s an emergency play off waivers for free if you're desperate.
Five Buy Low Players…
*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*
1) RB Chase Edmonds, ARI
It's not going to be cheap, but you wanna try…you want to try and trade/treat him like an RB2 to trade for. Dispatch your hottest blip name or temp RB or toss in a draft pick of some kind. You don’t want to overpay but you want in before the scuttlebutt and then reality starts to hit that Edmonds can be the main back the next few weeks AND the rest of the season, AND for 2021 Week 1 (when Drake is gone in free agency).
News hitting Monday midday that Drake is not hurt as bad as they thought...makes this even more of a cheaper deal now.
Trade Valuation? RB2-2.5…don’t pay anywhere near RB1 money, he could be a two week start and then an erratic split role, but he’s still producing nice in PPR in that split role. I really want in on bargain Chase Edmonds, been doing it for a week now.
Damien Harris or Zack Moss for their Chase Edmonds…done. I’ll do it. Perfect timing to make those offers.
2) RB Raheem Mostert, SF
Projected back Week 10, if you can wait…a guy to get for the stretch run. He’s been a tremendous looking back working behind a great O-Line, but he’s not fully exploded in a 2020 game because of blowouts in games (and he was throttled back) and he keeps getting nagging injuries. If you can get him cheap and sit on him…it could be a huge payoff down the FF stretch.
Trade Valuation? RB2…you have to wait a week (no Week 9) and there’s no guarantee on Week 10. You pay a discount because you have to wait, where the current owner cannot wait.
3) WR Diontae Johnson, PIT
The most maddening player of 2020…extreme scoring every other week. Hurt early in games the week in-between. His current owners now hate him. They want to punish him. They watch him so closely in games, that every non-point he gets on each play is a another dagger to the heart – you want to relieve these FF owners who get so close with their own players they can’t see straight and they are constantly trading every one of their players who disappoints to avoid pain/punish the player.
Quick executive action FF-owners don’t painstakingly watch the players they don’t own/don’t watch on every play, like lunatics – they think all OTHER players are great, because they only see their highlights/good things in their memory banks. But their own players…all they see are the negatives, and they hate them for it – find that person and make a deal at just the right time, if you care to be on the Diontae roller coaster 2020 and beyond.
Trade Valuation? WR2…has to be cheap. Has to be WR2. He’s WR1 one week then WR10 then next. The average is WR2-3, but it’s really not representative of what he has done in solid or better matchups and fully healthy all game.
4) WR Tyler Lockett, SEA
Remember the 20 targets and 200 yards and 3 TD game? No, it was SO long ago…ancient history. That good sentiment was replaced by a 4-33-0/5 dud Week 8…making it three of his last 4 games he’s been a WR3-4 producer. Like with Diontae, his current owners live for the pain and agony…it might be all they can think of on Lockett, who has been burning them most weeks of late as DK Metcalf rules. I’m interested in the WR who works with Russell Wilson and DKM, he has to be a pretty solid producer over time, no? Every WR cannot be awesome every single week.
Trade Valuation? WR2 steal, or why bother acquiring if you are going to pay full price?
5a) RB Jonathan Taylor, IND
The two ‘awesome’ RB rookies are at the co-#5 spot. The rookie new car smell has worn off. They are now nearing full disappointments in their own way.
Taylor is a great get cheap this week because Jordan Wilkins is going to be portrayed as even better than him, according to Week 8 numbers and articles this week. Taylor hasn’t had that ‘moment’ so people are getting impatient, wondering if they have a regular old average RB/potential bust on their hands. I’ll take your Taylor in Dynasty especially, but I’m not paying a lot for it – I’m not paying a rookie hype premium. I’ll give you an interesting WR and #2 pick or something. He’s not the only RB in the world…I just think he can be a top NFL back ahead. There’s risk Frank Reich cannot pull off such things the rest of this season.
Trade Valuation? RB1.5…better than a rando decent RB but has done nothing to show RB1 potential.
5b) RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC
On that same vibe, CEH has been a disappointment all season (since Week 2) pretty much. Now, add on the fear that Le’Veon Bell is coming to take over everything (not true)…and it makes for discounts possible.
I think CEH will be the 65/35 lead over Bell, that’s why I’m interested in a bargain where the current owner is panicked CEH will be the 35 vs. the 65.
Trade Valuation? RB2-2.5 in redraft and he’s not as much a Dynasty value like Taylor is, but if someone wants to sell him in Dynasty as an RB1.5 where I give a hot WR2 of the moment + a maybe a 2nd-round pick and maybe some other trinket…if they panic/buckle or are in need, you never know. Again, I’m not trying to pay a real price…I’m trying to ‘buy low’.
Five Sell High Players…
*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or values thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*
1) RB Zack Moss, BUF
A rookie + a 2 TD game…sell that baby, especially with this mediocre talent rookie splitting scraps with Devin Singletary in the worst offense for an RB in the NFL, perhaps. Josh Allen typically takes rushing TDs and throws for TDs…and doesn’t throw much to the RBs.
Sell Valuation? RB1.5…people have been told about the legend of Moss since the preseason. Now, that’s all they’ll talk about this week, how the takeover of the #1 role by Moss is upon us – sell it, even if he is named #1 RB. Even better!
2) WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT
A ghost most of the season, two good tallies the last two weeks. I’ll sell it. There’s no way this keeps up with Diontae and Claypool in existence.
Sell Valuation? WR1.5/strong WR2…most everybody loves the name, and always have – find the person that’s true of.
3) WR Robby Anderson, CAR
Robby’s numbers are starting to tail off…he hasn’t scored a TD since Week 1. He’s just a garden variety WR2 in PPR now…gets you his 4-6 catches and his 50-80 yards…it’s nice but 10-13 points a game each week isn’t going to cut it. His seasonal averages tell a better story, you might find someone who buys that total season rank/averages…if you want off. I’m not anti-Robby, but I am willing to sell if someone wants to overpay.
Sell Valuation? WR1.5 in PPR. His seasonal averages say it is so.
4) RB Le’Veon Bell, KC
Looks pretty mediocre in his first two Chiefs games.
Stop for a moment and close your eyes and think: When is the last time you thought Bell looked really good, like ‘wow’ there’s the old Le’Veon?
You do realize Le’Veon has ONE 100+ yard rushing game in his last 27 games spanning back to 2017 in tours of duty with PIT, NYJ, and KC? All his numbers are tailing down. His tape shows an older, still capable, but not ‘wow’ RB. You have people out there thinking Le’Veon is going to revitalize in an instant and push CEH out of the way and steal all his RB2 numbers! Who cares about RB2 numbers…and that’s at-best for Le’Veon?
Sell Valuation? RB1.5-strogn RB2…find the true believer out there.
5) TE Trey Burton, IND
Speaking of players moving at a snail’s pace…this guy. I mean...them running goal line with Burton is pathetic…BUT it’s working as of late. Two 1-yard rushing TDs the past two games…which pumps up his FF numbers/averages. I don’t see anything here but a slow, stiff TE surrounded by Doyle and Alie-Cox and ancient Philip Rivers. I’ll trade him.
Sell Valuation? Back-end TE1. People are desperate for TEs, and Burton is tracking with low-end TE1 numbers…he might be worth something to somebody, hopefully, maybe…
Five Deep Sleeper Waivers Pickups…
*Total flyer/lowly owned or not-owned players
1) RB Troymaine Pope, LAC
This is starting to look like Anthony Lynn’s new store brand Austin Ekeler…and he LOVES Austin Ekeler. Lynn has expressed frustration with Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley. In Week 8, Pope was working as the #2 to JJax as the game went on and had a nice output with it. All the LAC losing, and Anthony Lynn being a loon – he could start Pope here just to send a message/act like a fantasy owner frantically making changes for the sake of change to stop the pain of losing.
2) WR Tim Patrick, DEN
If he’s practicing normal this week, he’s got at ATL and at LV the next two games – that’s good matchups with a guy who has been the de facto #1 WR for Denver.
3) RB Brian Hill, ATL
How many times does Brian Hill have to look better than Gurley this season to get more of a shot? If Gurley goes down or if he gets traded…you got the Falcons new starter/RB1.5 hopeful here. Raheem Morris is trying to win to earn a job, I don’t know that he’s going to turn too blind an eye to Hill working better and Gurley being sloppy/low ypc. He might, but this week it looked like Hill had a mini-uprising over Gurley for 1-2 quarters.
4) WR Parris Campbell, IND
Could come off I.R Week 10, but no one knows if he will or if he will even return this season. Just noting, technically…he’s getting close.
5) WR Auden Tate, CIN
Had a great performance Week 8…looked like a Tee Higgins clone out there. If the Bengals move A.J. Green at the trade deadline, Tate would be the new #3 over Mike Thomas, I think. Then Tate would be working good snaps in a higher output passing game.
6) RB Malcolm Brown, LAR
IF Darrell Henderson is out, Brown will at least take 50% off the touches (you’d think). Also possible that Brown is the 80/20 or better lead because the Rams don’t seem to trust Cam Akers too much right now. With a Week 9 bye, I’m guessing DH will be fine for Week 10.
-- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS --
1) TE Tyler Higbee, LAR
I gave up weeks ago, but some are still holding as their 2nd TE hoping for a turn, in a TE desperate market – there is none coming, go try to strike gold somewhere else.
2) QB Gardner Minshew, JAX
The thumb injury will probably need surgery and leave him out for weeks, and I’m sure he’s not going to rush back and the whole JAX situation is a mess. There has to be something else on waivers for a #2 QB for an emergency.
3) WR Dez Bryant, BAL
Some people are holding a needed roster spot for this pipedream. If you think Dez is going to come in after a few years away (and when we last saw him he was terrible) and make your fantasy starting lineup and/or have some NFL impact…you’re nuts. If you need something more pressing – this is not your Antonio Brown equivalent clever early grab. This is going to be a waste. Trade it or cut it to open space for things you need to gamble on.
4) WR Preston Williams, MIA
Tua looked like I thought he might, and Preston Williams has looked disinterested for weeks…frustrated with the throws he’s getting I suspect. In redraft, I’ve been done…but officially done after watching this mess. Call me when Ryan Fitz is back, and if I’m in desperate need in a bye week.
In Dynasty, I’m not really holding my breath anymore. This will be Tua for the foreseeable future and Miami will go get grinder WRs to take over for pouty Preston…Brian Flores dances to his own tune on players.
5) RB Jerick McKinnon, SF
If Tevin Coleman is fine/active for Week 9…then just dump this guy already. Week 10, Mostert should be back. None of that really matters because McKinnon is playing so poorly anyway. Just move on.
-- STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS --
This is all about Week 9…facing Tua in Arizona. I like it.
Getting a little better each week. Not perfect but emerging a little…and a nice schedule ahead.
Week 9 = v. NYG (sweet)
Week 10 = at DET (good-ish)
Week 11 = CIN (not awful)
Week 12 = at DAL (nice)
You might be able to use this defense every game Weeks 9-12, hoping the offense can lend any support. It’s a semi-risky proposition. But this elite pass rush makes them a threat just about every week.
This has moved beyond just a good pairing with KC…now Miami is trying to be a real DST1, and you saw that the way they handled the Rams offense Week 8.
Week 9 = at ARI…seems bad but might not be. I would still try to avoid. If Drake were healthy then it would be some confidence, but I fear (for an opposing DST) Edmonds starting.
Week 10 = v. LAC…I don’t want to go up against Herbert either
Week 11 = at DEN…I want in on this
Week 12 = at NYJ…I also want in on this.
Week 13 = v. CIN…I could do this depending. I fear Burrow but his O-Line is so rough FF pts can ensue.
Week 14 = v. KC…no, thanks
Week 15= v. NE…this should be really good by then.
Three strong starts the next 7 weeks, maybe four of them. 1-2 other maybes. If Miami is on waivers, they may be best to keep on the radar and try to get Week 10 to get ahead for Weeks 11-12, and maybe a Week 13 pop.
Played good games v. BUF and PIT in the last few weeks. Looked bad against Cincy/Burrow Week 8.
It’s not a great defensive unit…it’s ‘OK’. The Titans try to control the clock with Derrick Henry and uber-efficient Tannehill, which helps support this defense not being on the field as much. For the people that have been missing out on a consistent DST or looking for a 2nd one to add for streaming/security…it’s something to consider.
Week 9 = v. CHI (YES)
Week 10 = v. IND (YES)
Week 11 = at BAL (NO)
Week 12 = at IND (YES)
Week 13 = CLE (YES)
Week 14 = at JAX (YES)
Week 15 = DET (YES)
From Weeks 9-15, you can use this DST with some confidence six times in 7 weeks. They burned their BYE in Week 4.
They can’t face Dalvin Cook every week…
This is a long shot DST, scraping the bottom of the barrel. They’ve held two of their last 4 opponents to 21 points or fewer in a game. It’s not the worst defense ever. It has a good offense supporting it.
Week 9 = at SF who might not have any RBs or Deebo or Jimmy G. in this one.
Week 10 = vs. JAX, who is falling apart and Minshew is probably done.
Week 11 = at IND with turnover prone Rivers.
Week 12 = vs. Foles/CHI
Week 13 = vs. PHI with their bad O-Line.
Week 14 = at DET, not a bad matchup.
A long shot for Week 9…hosting Denver, it might not be too bad. The Falcons under Raheem Morris have allowed 21.0 PPG (that’s really good these days) in winning two of his 3 head coaching games.
They face two of the worst O-Lines in the NFL the next two weeks…that’s something-not-nothing.
Week 9 at WAS
Week 10 v. PHI
This is for those planning ahead…and despite the fact that Seattle has a horrific defense in general…
Week 12 = at PHI
Week 13 = NYG
Week 14 = NYJ
Week 15 = at WSH
-- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --
1) SAF Eric Rowe, MIA
Rowe is heating up as he’s moved back to his normal/college position of safety in Miami. In his last 4 games, Rowe has averaged 6.5 tackles per game, 5.5 of them solo tackles, but get this…he has 8 PDs his last 3 games, including 5 in his Week 8 game. He has cornerback training, CB athleticism, but a safety’s mindset. He’s playing great ball for IDP lately.
2) SAF Daniel Sorenson, KC
Finally, Sorenson is starting to play more snaps like a key defender. Sometimes, he’s just a 50% of the snaps guy and then he plays so well that he’ll suddenly start playing starter snaps – and when he does, he’s usually a top IDP scorer.
His last 5 games, he’s averaged 7.1 total tackles per game. He also has two INTs in his last 3 games, including a pick-six.
3) SAF Chauncey Johnson-Gardner, NO
Last 6 games for CJG…5.6 total tackles per game, and he had a season high 9 total tackles Week 8.
4) SAF Ronnie Harrison, CLE
Finally, he’s healthy and starting the last two weeks…and he’s averaged 9.5 total tackles per game his two games. But the splits are weak…4.0 solo, 5.5 assisted tackles per game in that span.
5) LB Robert Spillane, PIT
Spillane couldn’t finish Week 7’s game due to a hit he took while taking down Derrick Henry, but he was playing well in that game…his first start in place of Devin Bush. Week 8, he played his first full game as an NFL starter…11 tackles, 10 of them solo, and a pick six. He’s a good, gritty player…a ‘throwback’ linebacker. He should be a solid tackle count most every week of the rest of the season in IDP.
*Late Sunday, PIT traded for Avery Williamson, who may just be ‘depth’…but it pours some cold water on any speculation right now.
My FF season versus Diontae Johnson in 2020 in video form: https://youtu.be/AiyJI5Kmcro