2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Weekend Notes (8/28-29)…
A couple of notes on things all popping this weekend…from questions coming into the news to what I’ve been observing in drafts this weekend:
-- If we don’t hear of a Watson trade by end of day Monday, I’d start to think it’s not happening…that there are too many unknowns (suspension, FBI, conditional picks) and that the offers are too low/bottom-fishing.
No Watson trade this week means…
a) The NE-BUF DST pairing still works nicely
b) The Eagles trade for Gardner Minshew was just: The ex-Jags GM now working for Philly as an exec had a connection Minshew and stole him from the utterly stupid Urban Meyer regime because ‘why not?’ Every NFL team should’ve made a cheap run at Minshew. But because GMs are the least attentive people in football, and the most afraid people on the planet – Minshew, a legit top 20 QB walking the face of the earth, goes in a deal for nothing.
If I were a Jaguars season ticket holder, I’d sell my tickets and then cancel my PSL for the future. You cannot support this regime for what it has done for the past several years/weeks.
-- Logan Thomas is moving up draft boards…not going #75-90 overall range ADP anymore. Now, more #68-80 and is the #7 TE off the board more times than he is #8-9 now. He is not, normally, going higher than #7 TE (Kelce-Waller-Kittle-Pitts-Andrews-Hock always go ahead, and then Fant-Higbee will sometimes jump Thomas).
-- Will Sony Michel be the Rams starter?
He’s going to have three weeks (from the trade to kickoff) to get up to speed…but the questions are: will he be the 2nd back behind Darrell Henderson? Will he split with Hendo? Or will he ultimately become the main starter and share with Henderson in a receiving back capacity?
You know what McVay has done time and time again…and that’s de-emphasize Darrell Henderson. I suspect as fast as McVay can, Michel will be the lead – whether that is 70/30 or 60/40…or 90/10. It’s possible everything McVay had planned for Cam Akers will go to Michel as soon as he is ready for it.
Side note: The Rams have Thomas Brown as an assistant coach, the former RB coach for Georgia/Michel in college…Brown is taking Michel under his wing to teach him the offense in a hurry.
-- T.Y. Hilton down…is it Mike Strachan time?
I love Strachan but it’s probably way too soon. Zach Pascal will likely be the replacement starter. Plus, you might have Eason-not-Wentz off the bat. It’s not Strachan time yet…I suspect.
-- J.K. Dobbins down…who benefits?
Obviously, Gus Edwards. But who is the #2 back? Probably Justice Hill, but I think Ty’Son Williams could leap into that #2 spot for Week 1 -- and be the Gus, while Gus is the J.K.
I’m sure the Ravens will snatch up a veteran RB from the cuts the next three days, and that will cause a further cluster.
-- Saving the best for last…
DATA to consider:
James White’s 2018-2019 averages per game with Tom Brady (the last two seasons of JW + Brady)…
Raw totals = 31 games, 228 targets, 159 catches, 2,084 total yards, 18 TDs
Averages = 7.35 targets, 5.12 catches, 67.2 yards, 0.58 TDs per game
Fantasy = 10.2 FF PPG, 15.3 PPR PPG
Those FF PPG totals would rank him in 2020 season (as an example/comparison) = 12th among all RBs (playing 8 or more games) in PPR and 24th in non-PPR.
Why does that matter?
B-E-R-N-A-R-D (PPR 2021)
Gio is trading as an RB4/5 in PPR in redrafts right now.