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2021 Fantasy Three Things/Five Players from Sunday’s Games: Week 14

Date:
December 13, 2021

2021 Fantasy Three Things/Five Players from Sunday’s Games: Week 14

 

Critical Week 14 is just about in the books and the early results are a mixed bag of ‘OK’…not as good an outlook going into tonight as we’ve grown accustom. FFMers had been on a hot streak the past couple weeks and then this week was randomness all over…so many great individual player performances made this week chaos depending upon opponent. FFM team scoring per game was up over the previous weeks, but so too was the public’s/opponent’s scoring.

It seemed like all the QBs you know and love had big games and many top name stars had star games this critical week – it kinda came down to who had the least letdowns supporting all their big scorers. There were some shocking duds from a few consistent players as well. When the KC guys are FF-mediocre it’s rougher going for many FFM-based teams…and KC blew out LV so fast they started throttling back the offensive explosions and resting some players, and the backups started going off.

Rashaad Penny was a savior. If you didn’t trust Penny, it might have cost you the week. MVS was no help. Deebo was a mild flop/not a savior. Taysom looked like a brilliant play, but then the QB stars like Brady-Rodgers-Allen-Herbert went off…while Mahomes was mediocre again. If you had Allen or Herbert, you were on the good side. If you faced them then it was trouble.

Not a bad week FFM-wide, but not as good as the last few weeks have been. Fortunately, this week was insignificant for several of you…as you had playoff spots locked ahead of this week. However, those in do-or-die Week 14 games…it looks like a 50-50 win-rate projected, with many having things still hinging on the big MNF game tonight – and your league projected scoring shows you as the underdog.

Kyler might save some FF games tonight (if he can join what Herbert-Allen-Rodgers etc. did). Matt Gay with an extra-than-normal FG would be a big help. DeAndre Hopkins or Matt Stafford seems to be the two players most of you are facing/needing them to be down. Much to be resolved tonight but it is a lot of close calls via projections and fingernail biting tonight to get the FFM universe win-rate up over 55-60% versus the 50-55% projections going into tonight. Good luck one and all on the MNF results you need to have happen.

After tonight, it’s the new season for most everyone (some already started) – the FF playoffs. All the bye weeks are past. All the FF teams are getting to full strength (as much as they can be). The proper sit-starts mean everything. The wrong COVID test popping up means everything. The late week grab of the right NFL backup RB who is suddenly sprung to life because of problems with the starter due to injury or illness. Everyday, every hour of this FF-week matters trying to figure out the right lineup. This week is why we all worked so hard the past few months.

The FF-playoffs are weird…months of planning, months of going along in the regular-season knowing there’s always another game next week. This all-consuming, fun diversion we partake in for several months on a day-to-day, week-to-week basis will end in an instant next Monday…for some. Those making it to the next week of the playoffs (Week 16)…it will end in an instant that Monday…for some. The playoffs are a cold reality that this lengthy, enjoyable FF-party is nearly over.

It’s not easy travailing the FF-playoffs. One wrong sit-start. One out of nowhere dud. One player hurt on the first play and out for the rest of the game – it changes everything. There is no ‘favorite’ anymore. Every week is its own mini-Super Bowl, do-or-die moment…a mix of luck and skill.

You have one job…figure out how to put the best lineup on the field for Week 15 (and so on) considering the weather, the opponent, the injury statuses, etc. Then you ‘let it rip’ come game time. It’s going to be a week of overthinking…as it should. We need to overturn every rock looking for opportunity and the best angles.

Use this week to OVERTHINK it all…this is the time, the FF-playoffs, to do so. You’ve got so many roster options. You’ve built a deep, unique roster. Choices are blessings not a curse. Let’s figure out the best way to play the game every week ahead…until they take it away from us, or we take the title.

Let the overthinking begin! And I keep saying ‘overthinking’, and I mean it in a positive manner. This is the week to really grind on this chess game. One slick move…one Rashaad Penny moment changes everything. Let’s go find those best moves.

 

You can win two or three in-a-row.

Why not you?

This team won 20 in-a-row…so, three in-a-row is nothing: https://youtu.be/nK1jtVhimPA

How they got the record…how it can end for us: https://youtu.be/NQXWnH7pre8

Here’s how you think it will end in your mind…don’t let yourself think this way:  https://youtu.be/0yzY2Q43ZsA  ‘Legs don’t do that’ should be the name of some of our Fantasy teams.

 

 

 

  ===== THREE THINGS (from Sunday games)…  =====

 

*These are my first reactions from the live watches last week, and opinions/scouting can change when I watch the tape back all week.

 

 

PIT-MIN

 -- I guess we need to take back the ‘Big Ben is washed up’ narrative…at least for FF. Ben Roethlisberger (28-40 for 308 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) keeps getting into shootouts now because his defense sucks, his run game sucks, and they basically suck all the way around so he’s throwing a bunch into deficit/prevent defenses…and he’s still a wily veteran.

In his past five games, Ben has averaged 2.2 TDs per game/0.6 INTs with 257.0 passing yards per game…not bad (for FF), better than Mahomes has been in his last 5 games (1.4 TDs/0.6 INTs per game). Might as well ride it while you can, for those in need.

 -- The biggest FF question for the TNF pregame Video Q&A was: Chase Claypool (8-93-0/9) or K.J. Osborn (3-83-1/9)? The answer was, wonderfully = either!

For Osborn, it was just what we have said all week – no Thielen, bad PIT defense, possible gold. And it really wasn’t…but thank God for that bomb TD.

For Claypool, ignored most all game or on the sidelines…then got a bunch of action late. Claypool was on the sidelines every other series before the outbreak. Tomlin either doesn’t take him seriously, and/or hates him…as many people are starting to after his TNF antics. His stock is falling, but he’ll be a bargain if/when he matures…and he’ll probably do that in 2022, as he nears $$$$ time/free agency…after his 2023 season.

 -- The player who stepped up here and gets up off the mat/stops getting ignored is James Washington (4-65-1/6). Washington is everything Claypool is not…not that tall, not that fast, but not a jackass…a tough as nails warrior.

Chase Claypool will be elite for Bill Belichick type coaches and sell jerseys and be a star someday. Washington is a forgettable, respected, hard hat and lunch pail worker – and that’s what fake tough guys like Mike Tomlin crave.

I’ll believe Tomlin is a tough guy…his money is where his mouth is if he trades Claypool to keep Washington. He won’t. The entire organization will be afraid that another team will make CC a star.  

I don’t think there will be any stars in Pittsburgh in the passing game for years to come, as long as Tomlin is there. They are going heavy run game and Taylor Heinicke type QB into the near future as sure as I sit here, once Ben retires/leaves.

 

ATL-CAR

 -- Man, what a difference in the Carolina offense without Joe Brady! It was the exact same/worse.

Cam Newton (15-23 for 178 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 10-47-1) was benched later in the game. Matt Rhule loves P.J. Walker (6-12 for 75 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) and is trying to force him in, but he sucks too. The Panthers team/organization is sliding down the drain.

 -- The Panthers-DST is dying along with the already dead offense…but Matt Ryan (19-28 for 190 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is so awful, but he was never uncomfortable and had no sacks or turnovers. The Panthers are quitting on the coach.

 -- Jeremy Chinn (13 tackles) is really catching fire of late…10+ tackles in three of his last 5 games…8.8 total tackles per game over his last 8 games.

 

BAL-CLE

 -- QB controversy? Tyler Huntley (27-38 for 270 yards, 1 TD/10 INT, 6-45-0) is a junior version of Lamar if LJax misses time. Huntley would be a QB1 threat as a replacement.

*Late news: Lamar has a basic sprain not a high ankle sprain…he is questionable for Week 15.

 -- With Huntley forced to play, Rashod Bateman (7-103-0/8) was launched to his best NFL game. They would have had some time together on 2nd-team work, so it makes some sense…but some of the catches were hail mary prayers answered.

 -- Kareem Hunt (2-5-0, 2-13-0/2) got dinged up early in this game, and then spent most of it on the sidelines. He’s rapidly losing his ‘works with Chubb for FF’ appeal. He is going to be pushed to more RB3 now for me.

 

SEA-HOU

 -- If you chickened out on using Rashaad Penny (16-137-2. 1-1-0/1)…it’s on you. I made my pitch on the FFM site Friday…Saturday…and on the Sunday Video Q&A – if you went against him versus the Foreman-JWilson-etc., type options. Couldn’t go strong against legit options but against all the questionable ones, Penny stood out and won many an FFMer the week.

Penny has established himself as ‘the guy’ for Seattle. Only a Penny injury can stop it…and that’s always a worry. You’ll know Penny is locked in if Seattle cuts Adrian Peterson early this week. Also, not every opponent ahead is Houston. This thing has legs right now, but he’s not an obvious RB1…but has hopes of it every week.

 -- Davis Mills (33-49 for 331 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) operated as if Seattle didn’t even have a defense out on the field…terrible showing by Seattle. Mills v. Jacksonville next week might show him to be better than Trevor Lawrence, which I pray happens so I can laugh my arse off as the TV people try to explain it away defending the ‘generational’ boy.

 -- Hot IPD Kamu Grugier-Hill (6 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) suffered a noncontact injury in this game, and left for the remainder…it may be bad news. Christian Kirksey (10 tackles) will get a bump and Neville Hewitt (4 tackles, 1 TFL) might be the one to pick up the starting role…or Kevin Pierre-Louis may get the nod.

 

LV-KC

 -- This game was such a blowout so fast that the outputs are not worth reading too far into. Patrick Mahomes (20-24 for 258 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) had a ‘meh’/OK FF day but it wasn’t a continuation of his prior struggles, just a lot of handoffs with a big lead.

 -- A huge deficit and Derek Carr (33-45 for 263 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) throwing a ton against soft coverages…and Bryan Edwards (2-24-0/3) only saw 3 targets and DeSean Jackson (1-19-0/2) only saw two targets. You know where they stand with Carr. Zay Jones (5-25-0/7) is the new Renfrow-Jacobs alternative, but it doesn’t mean FF-much.

 -- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (10-37-2, 3-5-0/3) got a pair of TDs, but this offense clicks way better with Darrel Williams (2-8-0/7, 3-31-1/3). Williams getting key touches continues to push CEH down as an RB2 upside week-to-week.  

 

NO-NYJ

 -- Taysom Hill (15-21 for 175 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 11-73-2) didn’t look great as a passer (considering his hand injury) but did get a rush TD midgame to save the FF day from a bust, then got a late 44-yard TD run to take it from OK to very good. Whew. He’s something to have hope in but also some worry about against tougher defensive opponents (like TB-MIA the next two weeks).

 -- La’Michal Perine (7-28-0) took the (very mild) lead in carries for NYJ with Tevin Coleman and Michael Carter out, but he’s not very good and this was a tough matchup…and their O-Line stinks.

 -- When Zach Wilson (19-42 for 202 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 4-33-0) started the season -- Jamison Crowder (3-19-0/6) was dinged up and Elijah Moore (DNP) was not a thing yet…and Wilson’s favorite target was Braxton Berrios (6-52-0/10)…6.0 rec. (9.0 targets), 72.0 yards per game Weeks 1-2…then Moore started perking up and Crowder came back soon after and Berrios disappeared.

Now, Week 14+ Corey Davis and Elijah Moore are out…so, it looks like Berrios is back on the PPR radar.

 

JAX-TEN

 -- This game started out with a lot of D’Onta Foreman (13-47-1, 2-15-0/2) but then he got nicked up and the game started to be at hand, and he didn’t play much 2nd-half. Not sure if by design, or game flow, or injury, etc. But at the start of the game, it looked like he was being Derrick Henry Jr.

Speaking of Derrick Henry, he might be back Week 18 per reports…but that would likely only happen if it was a do-or-die game and doesn’t look like it will be at this point.

 -- I wondered, in our JAX report last week, if James Robinson was ready to give up on this staff after the way he was treated last week…and he had a 6 carry for 4 yards game here, no targets/catches. I think any JRob owner’s time is up on any real great FF output from him the rest of the season. Blame Urban.

 -- Jeremy McNichols (8-16-0, 0-0-0/1) returned from 3 weeks off injury this game…and he saw 8 carries and a target. Dontrell Hilliard (6-13-0, 0-0-0/2) saw 2 less carries and 1 more target than McNichols. It may have been a function of the game getting out of hand and McNichols seeing a lot of late time, just getting back from injury – but it also may be the FF-death of Hilliard.

 

DAL-WSH

 -- I’m taking my numbers down on Dak Prescott (22-39 for 211 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs). I’m not sure what has happened, but 4 TDs/5 INTs in his last 4 games. Three of 4 games under 240 yards. He isn’t running for FF action anymore.

 -- I’m also taking down Ezekiel Elliott (12-45-0, 1-15-0/6) because it’s obvious his PCL sprain is bothering him. He spent time resting when they were up big/quick, and Corey Clement (13-44-0, 1-20-0/2) took extra work. Elliott returned to the game late when Washington closed the huge gap.

I think Pollard could go on IR, or out another week or two…Clement is thus the handcuff for the span Pollard is out.

 -- Taylor Heinicke (11-25 for 122 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is bad, but Kyle Allen (4-9 for 53 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is worse. If Heinicke is out for a game or more, advantage Philly-DST…who plays them Week 15 and 17.

*Late news: Heinicke is questionable for Week 15 but hoping to play. We’ll see.

 

DET-DEN

 -- No Jamaal WilliamsGodwin Igwebuike (8-25-0) or Jermar Jefferson was a question of the week?

The answer was: elevate Craig Reynolds (11-83-0, 2-16-0/2) off the practice squad and jam him into a lead role. It’s hard to believe the Lions only have one win.

 -- Courtland Sutton (1-9-0/2) is dead to me…for 2021.

 -- Noah Fant (4-51-0/4) is dead to me…for 2021. Albert O. (5-41-1/5) might be a better play. Fant also got hurt in this game on top of everything else.

The common denominator in the deaths of these two star potential players…Teddy Bridgewater (18-25 for 179 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is killing the passing tally, as well as the effective running. I said in the preseason that Denver 2021 was the Cleveland Browns of 2020. Ta-da.

 

NYG-LAC

 -- Austin Ekeler (12-67-1, 2-17-0/4) got banged up in this game and sat out much of the 2nd-half, but the game was outta hand and allowed for it. He sprained his ankle and with the quick turnaround time (they play TNF Wk15), Ekeler is at risk of missing that huge game with KC.

If he’s out, Justin Jackson (9-35-0, 1-7-0/1) got the more prominent touches/first priority over Joshua Kelley (10-33-0, 1-5-0/1) here, for whatever it is worth. And JJax has been more the coach’s lean over Kelley (or Rountree) all season…just JJax is always getting hurt and missing time.

*Late news: Ace OL Rashawn Slater is out for Week 15 with COVID…a huge blow for whatever RBs LAC throws at KC…and not good for Herbert either.

 -- Sterling Shepard (2-27-0/4) returned to action and had an FF-dud. The Shepard momentum happens with Daniel Jones, not Glennon-Fromm.

 -- Joshua Palmer (5-66-1/7) filled in nicely for Keenan Allen. No uprising here, Palmer will go back to a #4 WR role upon Keenan’s return this week. Palmer is a name for the future, but not for FF 2021…unless Keenan goes down again. He’s a Keenan handcuff. Seriously.

 

SF-CIN

 -- George Kittle (13-151-1/15) has made it official…Travis Kelce has been dethroned as ‘the best TE no questions asked for FF’. Kittle has had the best stretch of his career upon his return from injury several weeks ago.

Whether Kittle can hold that title in 2022 is an entirely different question…we don’t know what affect Trey Lance will have. But for now, he’s the man among all TEs.

 -- Deebo Samuel (8-37-1, 1-22-0/1) was fine upon his return…it wasn’t rust, it’s his reality for the past several games: Weak WR3/4 and weird RB3/4 who has a penchant for scoring rushing TDs to make himself a WR1-2 in eventual output…the rushing TDs have been covering over terrible output of late. Deebo is about to fall from the elites for scoring…it was bound to happen. He held out longer than I thought he could.

His last three games catch counts in each game: 1-1-1.

 -- Tee Higgins (5-114-0/7) is a better WR to own for FF than Deebo Samuel now. Tee has three 110+ yard games in a row. Finally healthy, and Joe Burrow (25-34 for 348 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is as good a QB as there is in the NFL, even with a dislocated finger.

 

BUF-TB

 -- Gabriel Davis (5-43-1/8) is on the verge of becoming the #2 outside WR for Buffalo…the one that matters (somewhat) for FF…blowing past fading Emmanuel Sanders (1-25-0/1). Sanders will likely always start but Davis may be playing more snaps and getting more targets in-game. Back-to-back weeks with TDs for Davis. Sanders has 2 TDs all season.

 -- Devin Singletary (4-52-0, 6-37-0/7) saw the bulk of the Bills RB work. The Matt Breida (3-12-0, 0-0-0/1) balloon is losing air fast…or has completely popped.

 -- These two teams have a great schedule finish for DST usage the last 4 weeks…

BUF: Cam-Mac-M.Ryan-Z.Wilson

TB: Taysom-Cam-Z.Wilson-Cam

 

 

CHI-GB

 -- When Jakeem Grant (1-46-1/3, 1-5-0) took that little pop pass and turned it into a brilliant 46-yard run for a TD early in that game, I texted Ross: ”Watch…he’ll never touch the ball again.” I was wrong. He did get one jet sweep the next 41 minutes of play. Later, he did take a punt back for a 97-yard TD...but that didn’t spur Matt Nagy to get him any more offensive touches after that. David Montgomery did touch the ball 16 times for 81 yards and no scores, however.

It’s why I had Jakeem on the ‘don’t trust’ waiver list last week. NFL head coaches are the most inexplicable entities one earth…absolutely allergic to success by players they hadn’t planned for.

 -- I apologize, I missed the news where A.J. Dillon (15-71-0) is the new starting RB for the Packers. He carried the ball 15 times to Aaron Jones’s (5-35-1, 3-30-1/3) five times in this game. I expected this changeover to have more fanfare where I could write paragraphs about how it should’ve been true already, but NFL coaches are so dumb, blah-blah-blah. Nope, it just ‘happened’ this week, quietly.

Jones will likely ‘start’ for the Packers every week, because you can’t make management look bad for paying him a ton of money last offseason, but then Dillon will do most of the heavy lifting. It seems to be a true split role now with Dillon the power back and Jones the pass catching scatback in a 50/50, hot hand scenario – one that is as good as there is in the NFL.

 -- My big Marquez Valdes-Scantling (3-20-0/5) plan hatched a week prior, while GB was on a bye…that didn’t work out. Rodgers crowned Allen Lazard (6-75-1/7) as the non-Davante he threw to most in this game when he wasn’t throwing to Davante Adams (10-121-2/13). MVS had a couple TD shots, but just missed.

MVS is still a WR3 with FF-winning upside week-to-week, but he can also give you a low target dud just as easily. That’s the way of the non-Davante’s with Rodgers.

 

BYE:

IND = I’m still keeping my eye on Jack Doyle in places where a 2nd TE matters. Breakout Week 12. FF-dud v. HOU Week 14, but the Colts stopped passing and just ran all over hapless Houston. I think Doyle has a pulse for a fringe TE1 ahead. Not a top 5 tight end, but #10-15 type to finish the season.

 

MIA = DeVante Parker is averaging good touches this season…5.0 rec. (8.0 targets), 64.8 yards…the problem is = just one TD so far with Tua. Parker missed a chunk of time (Weeks 5-12, except one return game Week 8), so Week 13 was his first time with higher-functioning Tua. 5-62-0/5 in his Week 13 return with good-Tua.

*Late news: We discuss the MIA RB COVID issues in the next segments below.

 

NE = Damien Harris is the lead back of the RB-duo for NE but he’s constantly getting nicked up. If he goes down and out, Rhamondre Stevenson might be an FF-playoff star to the finish line (with Harris gone). Stevenson has been FF-quiet the past few weeks, and with the BYE week he may have been dropped in some leagues – he has upside hope, but only if Harris is out of the way. Just regular hope otherwise.

 

PHI = Dallas Goedert was SO good with Gardner Minshew, but I’m not ready to assume this is the start of something. When Philly goes back to Hurts it changes the scene, and the big breakout was against the Jets…not that impressive of an opponent. All cold weather potential and Hurts running ahead with better foes to face with WSH-PHI-WSH the next three games.

 

 

 

  ===== FIVE PLAYERS…  =====

 

*** FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST***

*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.

**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..

***FAAB % mentioned at any time below is based on a 17-20 man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, and lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.

 

*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.

 

1) RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Grade: B+)

Most FFMers were all over this last week…but the rules apply to this list creation: he’s still under 50% owned nationally, on average.

He is the legit #1 RB for Seattle, but there are several hurdles to deal with…Adrian Peterson returning, Travis Homer returning, the terrible O-Line, Penny’s injury history, and facing teams not-Houston in the weeks to come.

There is a ton of hope here…Penny is a talent. But it’s not a totally clear path yet, but it’s an exciting, promising path, nonetheless.

 

2) QB Taysom Hill, NO (Grade: B)

Most FFMers have picked him up the past two weeks, but he’s still under 50% owned. He won’t be any more after this week. If you only have one reliable QB and you’re headed to the playoffs…Taysom is a legit QB1 backup for you to have in case of COVID or weather, etc., hits your main QB. You cannot go into the FF playoffs in 2021 with crap or nothing at your #2 QB. Taysom is a guy you can count on versus the random riff raff off waivers at QB.

 

(…and then a big waivers drop-off from here)

 

3) RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Grade: D+)

IF Austin Ekeler is out for TNF Week 15, this is my bet on the LAC RB to own. Problems being…Joshua Kelley will take touches and could get hot, the KC defense is good, while JJax has not been good all year, and JJax usually gets hurt within 5 touches. Not a perfect play, but it’s something for those in need – if he stays healthy, he could have a moment for a week.

 

4) WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Grade: D+)

Nice numbers all year with Tua, except not scoring any TDs. If he gets TDs with his catches and yards, WR1.5 flirtations maybe? We could say that about many good WRs…

 

5) WR K.J. Osborn, CHI (Grade: D)

A nice, solid WR2 while Thielen is out. The moment Thielen returns…this is over.

 

6) WR Rashad Bateman, BAL (Grade: D)

ONLY if Lamar Jackson is out. Like him OK with Huntley, but it's not a great passing game with Huntley either…and Bateman could suffer from starvation quickly.  

 

7) WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Grade: D)

Pure flyer that he gets back 100% and becomes the Giants only weapon, and Freddie Kitchens uses it. Toney has not played with Kitchens at O-C, so we don’t know how all-in the new O-C would go…but he might go all-in, and this be something hot for the FF playoffs…maybe.

 

8) QB Tyler Huntley, BAL (Grade D-)

If Lamar is out for weeks, Huntley is a junior/discount version of Taysom Hill.

 

-----------------------------------------------

 

***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***

 

1) RB La’Michal Perine, NYJ

Coleman and Carter out, Perine got a mini push for touches…and he’s awful and there is no future here.

 

2) RB Craig Reynolds, DET

Swift and Williams out, and Igwebuike and Jefferson rostered all season…and Reynolds takes the bulk of the work. Once Williams returns, we don’t know what role Reynolds takes…but I can’t imagine it’s that exciting with Detroit.

 

3) RB Royce Freeman, HOU

Rex Burkhead hurt, but the entire NFL could be out with COVID, except the Texans team, and if then Houston plays their game against not one person on defense, if it were 11-on-zero…and still their RBs would get 10-15 carries for 30 yards and no TDs. Every Houston RB is miserable. You’d have to be beyond desperate to chase one…and DJnotOK should be back to take meaningless lead carries next week.

 

4) WR Sterling Shepard, NYG

The Giants offense has turned miserable, and no one matters. Shepard is nice with Daniel Jones, but he’s a ‘nothing’ otherwise…and most believe Jones will not play again this season. Why play Dimes when you can keep him safe on the sidelines, trade him to Matt Rhule in February, and start over again at QB? Shepard is likely stuck with Glennon/Fromm the rest of the season.

 

5) RB Jeremy McNichols, TEN

He split into Dontrell Hilliard’s touches Week 14…so, is he the PPR back or is Hilliard? I’m not sure we know the answer. My first reaction is McNichols got garbage-ish time to get extra work just returning for a 3-week absence this past week. But McNichols v. Hilliard for a split of the 40% touch share with D’Onta Foreman getting the other 60%…I don’t think I want any of it with McNichols as my choice.

 

------------------------------

 

***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*

 

***We’re past most trade deadlines now. If trades are still open in your league, you’ll get some of our ideas from the daily game reports. Dynasty leagues, as we get deeper into the season we’ll be discussing players to consider for trade in the offseason in the game reports.***

 

The Buy Low Players will resume again Week 1-2 next season!

 

-------------------------

 

***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walkaway.*

 

***We’re past most trade deadlines now. If trades are still open in your league, you’ll get some of our ideas from the daily game reports. Dynasty leagues, as we get deeper into the season we’ll be discussing players to consider for trade in the offseason in the game reports.***

 

The Sell High players will resume again Week 1-2 next season!

 

------------------------------

 

***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***

*Total flyer/lowly owned or not-owned players

 

1) WR Kendrick Bourne, NE

Week 13 = the snow/wind game v. BUF where Bourne saw no targets.

Week 14 = BYE

Two weeks and he’s long forgotten.

Prior to being forgotten, Bourne was becoming the #1 WR for the Pats…3.6 rec., 59.4 yards, 0.57 TDs per game the prior 7 games (pre-snow/wind game).

 

2) RB Duke Johnson, MIA

Gaskin-Ahmed-Lindsay all in danger of missing Week 15 with COVID. That leaves Duke Johnson as the potential starter for a week. Whatever that is worth to you, God bless…but it’s something?

Rookie Gerrid Doaks may see some snaps. Lamar Miller is on a tryout but that may be a precaution if Duke tests for COVID next, and they don’t want a rookie being the lone back for critical Week 15.

 

3) QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

1.1 TDs/0.6 INTs per game = Ben Weeks 1-8

2.2 TDs/0.6 INTs per game = Ben Weeks 9-14

A combination of horrible defense, shootouts, and a lack of ability for PIT to run the ball is forcing Ben to throw 40+ times a game to try and keep the team in games and he’s racking up stats latterly doing so. Tougher matchups coming up in all outdoor/cold weather potential games – but if you’re looking for depth or help in 6pts pass TD in case a COVID thing hits you or whatever…Ben is becoming something to consider off waivers in 6pts per pass TD leagues.

 

4) QB Tyler Huntley, BAL (if LJax out)

Discount Lamar Jackson…OK-not-great passer, but a willing/effective runner. Can threaten to be a QB1 in 4pts per pass TD leagues in any given week.

 

5) RB Corey Clement, DAL

IF Tony Pollard is out (could go on IR) and with Zeke still battling a PCL sprain, Clement is the next in line…the cuff, right now.

 

6) WR Gabriel Davis, BUF

A season high 8 targets Week 14. TD catches in back-to-back games. Had a 100+ yard game Week 10. Davis is starting to perk up and push past Emmanuel Sanders in the pecking order.

 

7) TE Jack Doyle, IND

An outside shot that he becomes a low key TE1 in PPR…the trusted pass game option after Michael Pittman for Wentz. The new Zach Ertz for Wentz.

 

8) WR James Washington, PIT

Made some big plays Week 14…is a pro’s pro in the face of childish Chase Claypool. Ben may start to reward JW more, like he did this past week.

 

9) WR Braxton Berrios, NYJ

Could be the low key best PPR WR from the Jets to own now that Corey Davis and Elijah Moore are out. No TDs likely, but 4-8 catches for 50+ yards hopes as a sad flex if you need it.

 

---------------------------------

 

 -- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --

 

1) WR Courtland Sutton, DEN

I have no more words for this…one of the best WRs in the NFL is rarely/never targeted.

 

2) WR Curtis Samuel, WSH

A huge Dallas-week for Washington and needing every trick in the book…and CSam saw no catches on 2 targets with carries. I’m out.

 

3) WR Marquez Callaway, NO

Taysom Hill is not going to push big passer numbers, and Callaway is just another random option on the field for him, not a preferred one.

 

4) RB Austin Walter, NYJ

Carter and Coleman out, Walter promoted to the 53-man…and got 0 carries and 0 targets.

 

5) RB Jermar Jefferson, DET

Swift and Williams out, and Jefferson got 0 carries and 0 targets.

 

--------------------------------

 

***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS***--

 

1) Dolphins-DST

You can use this defense every week the rest of the way…and it has been heating up as of late.

Week 15 = NYJ

Week 16 = at NO

Week 17 = at TEN

Week 18 = NE

 

2) Eagles-DST

They might catch Washington with Kyle Allen Week 15 and then get the Giants…a great Week 15-16 DST opportunity. Week 17 back at WSH works too. All these games will be outdoors with colder weather potential.

Week 15 = WSH

Week 16 = NYG

Week 17 = at WSH

Week 18 = DAL

 

3) Bengals-DST

Useful with upside, but not great. It could be you face Teddy and Huntley…not terrible.

Week 15 = at DEN

Week 16 = BAL

 

4) Falcons-DST

Week 16 v. DET might be something for those in need. The Falcons D has been getting opportunistic.

 

-------------------

 

 -- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --

 

1) SAF Elijah Riley, NYJ

Has gone from UDFA practice squad guy to starting the past 4 weeks and he’s averaging 7.0 tackles, 0.3 sacks per game in that span.

 

2) LB Josh Woods, DET

Out of nowhere, Woods is playing more snaps the past two weeks and is averaging 10.5 tackles, 1.0 TFLs per game in that span. I need to watch the tape on him because I can’t conjure up any memories of his college play, or pro.

 

3) CB Aaron Robinson, NYG

One of my favorite players from the 2021 NFL Draft, and now he’s starting to be let loose – 7.3 tackles, 1.0 PDs per game in the past three weeks of heavy play.

 

4) LB Divine Deablo, LV  

Now playing more due to LB injury…he has back-to-back 10+ tackle games with the extra opportunity. A college SAF turned linebacker in the pros…the #80 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Not sure how his role changes if/when Denzel Perryman returns.

 

5) CB Chris Westry, BAL

Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters gone. Jimmy Smith struggling/aging (and inactive last week). The Ravens need new CBs and Westry is part of that new breed for them. 6 tackles and a PD Week 14 in more work/snaps. He’s a freak size for a corner, aiding his ability to get PDs.

 

6) DE Malcom Koonce, LV

Back-to-back weeks with a sack for the rookie – he’s one of the best pass rushers I scouted for the 2021 NFL Draft. If he gets more time (still playing limited snaps), he might go on a sack tear.

 

 

Outro:

Our job is to win the last game of the Fantasy season…with this team of misfits from Rashaad Penny to Taysom Hill to D’Onta Foreman to Cordarrelle Patterson and the rest of the 3-8 years ago gang many of us have part in.

If we do win it all with this collection of misfits, it may go down as the single greatest feat of Fantasy depth scouting in our history… https://youtu.be/IgKQ8z_xNhk

 



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>