2022 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 11

rss feed

 

2022 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 11

 

Everything was going along pretty swimmingly for most FFMers in Week 11…until Sunday night.

FFMers were on pace to win approx. 2/3rds of their FF games at a critical junction of the FF season…just needed Kadarius Toney to do his thing, anything, and then there were a few who were counting on a returning Mike Williams to have a normal/decent game to pull them to a Week 11 victory or provide a cushion going into the MNF game. Well, we know how that turned out. Kadarius got a zero and left the game early with a hamstring…and Mike Williams left in the 1st-quarter, reaggravating his ankle.

We don’t know how these games would’ve turned out for Toney-Williams had they not gotten hurt, but the reality was devastating…for those who used them. It’s almost fitting for this 2022 season to finally have Toney come around while on my bench mostly the prior week, and then many of us excitedly starting him Week 11 with JuJu-Hardman gone…what could go wrong? How could this not be a WR1 event this week? Toney killed me redrafting him in August and prior months in Best Ball, and trading for him in Dynasty all year, and sitting him for his sweet Week 10, then starting him for his zero Week 11. The ultimate FF heartache.

Well, the Week 11 dud has dragged the FFM universal win-rate averages to around 55-60% projected...depending upon what happens tonight. What might have been 70%+ drops 10%+ off the SNF Toney mess.

Nothing you can do but move on to next week if Toney burned you for a loss this week. You can only stare for so long at all the options on your bench that coulda got you the win over Toney. In-game injuries happen, and this one stung several of us at a critical time. Why ‘my guys’ always get hurt in-game early, after doing nothing while most in-game injuries for others happen in the 4th-quarter late after the player stacked a great FF game…I don’t know. All I can do is move on to Week 12.

Where I didn’t have or need Toney, it was mostly all good. But the Toney event really chaps my arse, on behalf of everyone.

Three games left for most leagues before the FF playoffs. Everyone who is in the playoffs, a game out, or those eliminated from the playoffs -- you know what to do for Week 12 prep. But I want to speak to the two games out with 3 games to-go FF teams…it’s a simple message: just win Week 12 and see what happens. It could draw you a game out with two to-go and maybe you’ll just need one more win in final two to win via tiebreakers or need to win two in-a-row, which is totally do-able no matter how bad your team is banged up (because more byes and injuries coming Weeks 13-14). 2022 has shown us over-and-over again that the inexplicable becomes ‘splicable’…injuries hit and bring high and mighty teams to their knees. If you have playoff life still, even bleak appearing -- keep fighting. I get so many stories of teams that finished on a 2-3 game win streak out of nowhere to slide into the playoffs then run the table hot as a pistol and/or having grabbed the new hot thing off waivers just at the right time, etc.

 

Couple Week 12 things to consider…

 -- It’s Thanksgiving week, which means many football analysts are on vacation/mailing it in pre-vacation. We should have an advantage this week …because I don’t take time off, not even a jacked-up gallbladder surgery and hospital stay can stop me. I’ll be working the normal ‘doubles’ every day. I’ll eat a big lunch Thursday and be working all the rest of the week otherwise.

Tuesday Night Waivers Video Q&A will happen as normal, so will Sunday morning sit-start but I’ll also do a special Thursday morning sit-start/pregame Video Q&A to get us kicked off properly for Week 12.

 -- No byes this week, so all the players back in the pool…but byes again Weeks 13-14.

 -- This week most all FF owners are sidetracked with the holidays, as you should be. Much of your competition is going to be distracted and there will be less info from the mainstream media who is also distracted this week…so, there is a good chance the competition in your leagues makes more mistakes this week than any other week of the FF-season. Advantage = us.

I will be on top of everything I can all week and keep you informed as best I can so you can relax and enjoy the holiday.

 -- The NFL teams have weird schedules this week too…different/limited practice schedules, three games on Thursday, etc. Information won’t come out like the normal flow on injury reports and rumors, etc. I’ll try to shake down all my sources as best I can, as I always do this particular weird week every year, so we can be another step ahead of everyone.

 

Holiday week distractions. No bye week. Three Thursday games. A lot of curveballs this week, but it’s a huge must-win week to try and get over on the competition. Let’s lock down some critical wins during this weird week…let’s enjoy the time off and food and family and football.

Let me capture Week 11 in one video:  https://youtu.be/RhJJ4yDafhw

  

*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.

A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.

 

 

CHI-ATL

 -- Justin Fields (14-21 for 153 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 18-85-1) not only kept up his run attack superpower, but he also advanced it further with a career high 18 rushing attempts. It is now the Chicago offense…Fields running early and often.

Fields is going to flirt with 100+ yards rushing every game the rest of the season…but now defenses are paralyzed for fear of the run/trying to overload to stop it, so there was plenty of pass game opportunity with no pressure…and that helps Mooney-Kmet…and Fields to throw TD passes.

Five quality starts in-a-row for Fields as he continues to push towards the #1 QB in PPG for FF 2022.

Now, late game Fields took some big blows running the ball and hurt his shoulder…and was actually carted off. Reports vary on the extent of his injuries. We’ll have to see how bad it is this week. Fields down and out kills that nuclear bomb event Fields had become for FF…and destroys Kmet-Mooney as well.

 -- Apparently the Fields breakout doesn’t help Chase Claypool (2-11-0/3), who after his debut excitement has barely been seen on the field or getting targets. Going from Pitt to Chicago looks like a worse situation so far.

 -- Another Kyle Pitts (3-43-0/5) dud…he got hurt midgame and left the contest, but the situation prior was still the same…low pass game volume and low output for Pitts and everyone on the Falcons passing game. *Pitts tore his ACL…he’ll be done for the year, most likely.

 

CLE-BUF

 -- David Njoku (2-17-0/3) looked fine. He made a nice play midgame for 22-yards, leaping a defender…and he really went up high. Earlier in the game he got a 20+ yard toss right to him but as he caught it a safety closed in and blew him up to dislodge the catch. Everything looked fine…just not his game and he wasn’t in late that much when the game was getting out of hand, he didn’t get in on the garbage.

 -- This was the game where James Cook (11-86-0, 0-0-0/2) ‘arrived’…he’s been looking better and better for weeks, and that means he’s likely to split touches from here on in with Devin Singletary (18-86-1, 2-11-0/2). Cook has homerun hitting ability as a runner and is most known for his stellar pass game ability, which Buffalo has shown zero interest in exploring…inexplicably. If they do, then Cook is going to be FF viable.

 -- Donovan Peoples-Jones (5-61-1/6) is not only productive week-to-week, but he looks fantastic. He’s really come around as a legit #2 NFL WR showing some #1 WR skills. Six of his last 7 games in double digit PPR scoring, just a lack of TDs hurting his full quality start numbers. DPJ has two quality starts in-a-row and is a (2/8) this season.

 

PHI-IND

 -- The Eagles-DST got punched in the face in Indy’s first series or two, but then the Eagles settled in and played tough defense, ground and air, the final three quarters…holding Indy to just field goals the rest of the final 3 quarters with a few clutch red zone stops. I feel better about them now, after getting smacked around vs. Washington the week prior. The schedule the rest of the way is mostly favorable.

 -- The Colts-DST continues to be solid…holding a quality Philly offense to 17 points. They’ve held five of their last 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. They are tough to pass on…thus our lower A.J. Brown (5-60-0/7) and DeVonta Smith (6-78-0/9) projections…and their mild WR2-3 results.

Good enough matchup with the Steelers Week 12 and then schedule drops from there (at DAL, bye, at MIN, LAC the following 4 games).

 -- From the live watch, it looked like Philly was getting a little frustrated with Miles Sanders’ (13-47-0, 1-1-0/1) inefficiency (been growing for 3 weeks now). I saw a little more purposed Boston Scott (3-8-0, 2-4-0/2) in the game in a few spots…something to watch, especially if Philly had lost this game.

Sanders has 5.4 and 5.8 PPR points in a game in his last two games. He’s a (4/6) this season, a (2/4) his last 6 games.

 

NYJ-NE

 -- Start up the QB controversy talk in New York…Zach Wilson (9-22 for 77 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 3-26-0) played a flat/inefficient game in a huge spot where NYJ could’ve been in 1st-place with a win. Instead, a loss, 3 total points on offense, and Wilson with 27% Comp. Pct. and 77 yards passing. I think they are prepping for a Mike White takeover at some point, but probably not Week 12…one more loss with garbage performance might do it.

 -- Had the Pats lost to sink deep into last place in the division, the QB controversy/switch may have been on tap with Mac Jones (23-27 for 246 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) doing nothing here but simple safe passing…and Belichick wants some Bailey Zappe. This win holds that talk off another few weeks, at a minimum.

 -- Both teams feature split backfields with two solid RBs, but the best-looking RB of this game was our ‘outta nowhere’ RB this week: Damien Harris (8-65-0, 2-28-0/2). Harris got lost with a high ankle sprain several weeks ago, had too fast return (wasn’t fully ready yet) Week 7, then a decent touch count in a Week 8 return followed by missing Week 9 with an illness then a bye Week 10…so he kinda went off the grid for a few weeks. He earned more touches ahead with this performance…he earned his starting job back potentially.

Harris is a (2/6) this season, but in games he’s actually played his normal role he’s a (2/4) with four-of-6 double-digit PPR games in those 6 ‘normal role’/snap count games.

 

LAR-NO

 -- If Matt Stafford (11-18 for 159 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is hurt/out again for a few weeks, or gets shut down, Bryce Perkins (5-10 for 64 yards, 5 -39-0) is a deep sleeper emergency use option in 4pts pass TD because he is a decent runner/run-first mobile QB, but very limited passer.

 -- Juwan Johnson (3-47-1/4) and Andy Dalton (21-25 for 260 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) are developing good chemistry the past couple weeks. I’m seeing Dalton force throws to him, looking at him off the snap…which means we got legit TE1 hopes any given week here with JJ.

If I ‘round up’ (13.7 PPR this game), Juwan has back-to-back quality starts and is a (3/2) the past 5 games…a (3/8) this season. Still the targets are a bit too low to get too excited…5-4-2-7-4 for targets his last 5 games.

 -- As predicted, Allen Robinson (4-47-1/5) did not get a super-spike with Cooper Kupp gone. ARob didn’t get his first targets until into the 2nd-quarter. I think my theory was correct…there is no real winner from Kupp being gone. And Ben Skowronek (1-4-0/4) didn’t step up either.

ARob is a (3/7) this season.

 

DET-NYG

 -- Last week, I mentioned Wan’Dale Robinson (9-100-0/13) looking better and better, despite the lack of production of late, and that he had deep sleeper appeal…but I didn’t think he’d crush it like he did this week. He’s a simple play/throw for NYG/Dan Jones. This should keep up, but NYG rarely is consistent with touches to WRs…but I’m interested here because they use him like he’s ‘their Tyreek’, a very poor man’s edition.

Robinson sustained a late game injury…could be an ACL, costing him his season. Unsure as of this Monday morning writing.

 -- Darius Slayton (5-86-0/10) has been the more consistent NYG WR…their #1/alpha. 4.5 rec. (6.5 targets), 76.3 yards, 0.50 TDs per game. Double digit PPR games in five of his last 6 games.

If I ‘round up’ his 13+ point PPR games to a quality start (14.0+), then Slayton is a (4/2) his last 6 games…one of the most productive PPR WRs in the game the past 6-7 weeks.

 -- Justin Jackson (9-66-0, 1-11-0/1) has seemingly, now, moved ahead of D’Andre Swift (5-20-1, 3-12-0/3) in the pecking order. How low the redraft 1st-round pick has fallen…

 

CAR-BAL

 -- The Ravens defense is turning into one of the top run defenses/most feared defenses for your opposing RB defense out there since the Roquan Smith deal…more state’s evidence of that turn here with D’Onta Foreman (11-24-0, 0-0-0/1) getting locked down. Next week BAL vs. Travis Etienne.

 -- I want to make fun of or dismiss Demarcus Robinson’s (9-128-0/9) big game but it’s no joke…he’s the Ravens #1 WR, 6-1-9 for catches in a game the past three games with Rashod Bateman gone. Devin Duvernay (1-3-0/1, 1-4-0) cannot get to free agency fast enough. DRob is a (1/9) this season with his one in Week 11.

 -- Terrace Marshall (3-76-0/8) is hands down the Panthers best WR, but I don’t know that he saw a target in the 1st-half because Steve Wilks is…well, you know…we’ve seen this before.

Marshall had two tough catch opportunities in this game…they were tough but they were possible/catchable balls that he couldn’t come down with…one for 20+ yards and another in the end zone. He was close to a blowout scoring in the 2nd-half. Why the Carolina QBs don’t realize Marshall is a big play weapon right away in games is beyond me. What tape are they studying all week? Three of his last 4 games with double-digit PPR games.

 

WSH-HOU

 -- This was a miserable FF game. Everyone underperformed in this drudgery except for Antonio Gibson (18-72-0, 3-31-0/3)…and that’s it. It feels like Gibson is pulling his starting job back, but really it’s a hot hand plan every week. Four double-digit PPR games in his last 5 games.

 -- Nico Collins (5-48-0/7) got good ‘the guy’ treatment at times here, but this game was so miserable/this Houston offense so dreadful, it only amounted to a WR3 output. Three double-digit PPR games in his last 5 games.

 -- Logan Thomas (5-65-0/6) showed a little spark in this game…working well with Heinicke. He might get on the TE1/2 map next week or so.  

 

LV-DEN

 -- If you can’t get anything out of Russell Wilson (24-31 for 247 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) against Las Vegas with them missing their top corner (Hobbs) still AND a change in their play calling…then there’s pretty much no matchups/situations you can trust for this sad Denver offense. Russ is a (1/8) this season.

 -- With Jeudy-Hamler out, it would have been a logical/good time for Denver to give unique playmaking rookies Montrell Washington and Jalen Virgil some looks…combined they had 0 targets. Nathaniel Hackett is so fired this offseason.

 -- Chandler Jones (5 assisted tackles) was signed to a 3-year/$53M deal with $32M guaranteed this offseason…because ‘ex-Patriot’. Jones has just 0.5 sacks in 9 games this season. He has 1.5 sacks in his last 13 games.

 

DAL-MIN

 -- This wasn’t even a game from the jump…the RB duo of Pollard-Elliott accounted for all 4 TDs and everything else on both sides of the ball died off for FF.

Pollard is a (5/5) this season with three straight Q-starts…three straight 24+ PPR point events, with two 35+ efforts in those last three games.

Zeke is a surprising (4/4) this season…with three straight quality starts.

 -- The Dallas-DST was smacked around by the Packers last week, and last week’s game was the second game in a row that they allowed 200+ yards rushing as a defense. I was wondering how this DST would respond Week 11…and they responded. Fears subsided.

 -- Brett Maher (4/4 FGs, 4 XPs) hit two 50+ yard FGs and a 60-yard FG in a game where he scored enough points to be a top 5 QB, RB, WR and the top TE. He may be the top scoring PPG kicker in all FF for the season after this surreal week.

 

CIN-PIT

  -- George Pickens (4-83-1/6) is not the theoretical/hopeful #1 WR for the Steelers/Pickett…he IS the #1 WR. This game tape was the proof. Pickens doesn’t even know how good he is. He’s still growing into the NFL #1 role. He turned the wrong way on a wide-open bomb/50+ yard TD early in the game and then just flat-out dropped a wide-open 50+ yard TD bomb with under 2 minutes. He doesn’t usually drop passes…but I note all this because this was almost a ‘wow’ game with 150-200 yards and 2-3 TDs.

Meanwhile Diontae Johnson (4-21-0/5) got some short, junk targets by comparison. Pickens is only going to get better from here.

Pickens is a (5/5) this season…(5/2) his last 7 games.

Buckle up for this…Diontae is a (1/9) this season with (0/7) in his last 7 games.

 -- This was an actual good game from Najee Harris (20-90-2, 4-26-0/6), boosted by the injury loss of Jaylen Warren early in the game. The Steelers think they have something with Najee now, so it’s gonna be heavier Najee from here on in…and if Warren is going to miss time, the Najee’s numbers will go even higher by volume in the passing game. Najee is (2/8) this season but had a career high game Week 11.

 -- Joe Mixon (7-20-0, 3-42-0/3), missed about half this game with the concussion protocol and was ruled out. We’ll see if he can get back for Week 12. If not, Samaje Perine (11-30-0, 4-52-3/4) is the RB1 threat handcuff to play Week 12.

 

KC-LAC

 -- Kadarius Toney (0-0-0/1) has the worst hamstrings in the NFL. He left the game after 1.5 quarters and didn’t return and will be questionable and probably out for Week 12…totally blowing his great opportunity.

And, for good measure, you see what I was saying on last week’s Executive Report and the Tuesday night Video Q&A -- Kansas City has a rich history of ignoring talent like Toney (and rookie Tyreek), so guess what happened in their biggest game of the year, the game to put away the Chargers in the division for 2022? They went heavy Jody Fortson (2-51-0/2) to start…and random, sparse Toney.

 -- Mike Williams (1-15-0/1) got re-hurt making a catch early in the game, which in part helped launch Josh Palmer (8-106-2/10) to his best game ever. If Williams is out again…Palmer is back on the board. Palmer is a (3/1) in his last 4 games with Big Mike out.

 -- The Toney injury helped Skyy Moore (5-63-0/6) see more time and we got a glimpse of what could’ve been for months now, but, again, this is what KC does…heavy Justin Watson and Jody Fortson, less Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney. Hey…the Chiefs keep winning, so why should they do anything different. Man, I hope the Titans or Bengals knock them off in the playoffs as a punitive damage.  

 

JAX bye: Week 12 will see no BYEs for the Thanksgiving week, so no need for messing with Evan Engram with all the TE options that will be available. Engram has averaged 2.0 rec., 11.0 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game the past two weeks. He’s a (1/9) this season.

 

TB bye: Big test Week 12…who will the Bucs lean on as their main back? I fear it will be Rachaad White getting the start, and then Leonard Fournette out-touching him from there…but we’ll see. If Fournette misses Week 12 with a worse hip injury than they let on…then White is an RB1 projection for Week 12. We’ll be gathering intel on this situation all week leading up to their Sunday game with the Browns.

 

MIA bye: The Dolphins-DST has been wonderful at home and crushed on the road. This week/Week 12…at home vs. Houston. You gotta love it!

 

SEA bye: Marquise Goodwin has 3.0 rec., 41.0 yards, 0.75 TDs per game in his last 4 games. He’s getting onto the flex radar, especially during bye weeks for a fill-in in deeper leagues.

 

 

  ===== FIVE PLAYERS =====

 

*** FIVE FREE AGENT PLAYERS TO TRUST***

*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.

**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..

***IF FAAB% mentioned at any time below is based on a 16–20-man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, and lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.

 

*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.

 

1) RB Samaje Perine, CIN (Grade: B-/C+?)

If Joe Mixon misses Week 12 with a concussion, Perine is going to get RB1 touches…but doing so against the vaunted top run defense of the Tennessee Titans. RB1 touches, but maybe RB2 output? Good for a week only, then Mixon should be back…if he isn’t back Week 12 anyway. If Mixon is playing Week 12, then this is a useless waiver…except to hold the valuable Mixon handcuff.

 

2) WR Parris Campbell, IND (Grade: B-/C+)

Another solid output game (5-67-0/6) with Matt Ryan in Week 11…not his best output during this hot run with Ryan, but useful. Good matchups the rest of the way. This is a WR that is a solid start every week now.

 

3) WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Grade: C+)

Quality game after quality game…not only statistically, but the way he is playing. He’s playing as technically sound of wide receiver play as anyone in the league right now, outside of the obvious elite names. The question becomes…how does Deshaun work with him going forward?

 

4) WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Grade: C)

He is moving and looking like a star is born, but he is stuck on a typically low volume passing game and he doesn’t play but 50-60% of the snaps in games right now. Tennessee may give into this more ahead, but right now it’s not a for-sure thing like the other breakout rookie WRs becoming 95-100% snap count #1 target WRs for their teams.

 

5) TE Juwan Johnson, NO (Grade: C-/D+)

Five TDs in his last 5 games. I was a little early to this party to start the season, but I’m starting to be proven ‘right’ of late on JJ.

 

6a) PK Chase McLaughlin, IND (grade: D)

Since Week 5, he’s the #6 PK in FF PPG. He’s hit five (of 7) 50+ yard FGs so far this season and kicks in a dome his next 4 games in-a-row but does have an annoying Week 14 BYE.

 

6b) PK Cameron Dicker, LAC (Grade: D)

12 of 12 FGs made so far as LAC kicker and 8 of 8 XPs. He’s hot, and if he keeps the job (you have to assume), he’s in a dome the next six straight weeks while other kickers are dealing with inclement conditions. The downside is Dicker is not a long-range kicker…0-for-0 on 50 yards attempts so far this season. He was 4-of-8 on 50+ yarders in college over 4 seasons, one 50+ FG made per season. If distance of kicks doesn’t matter for your scoring…Dicker would be with/over McLaughlin.

 

8) PK Joey Slye, WSH (Grade: D-)

As the Commanders have started to rise, so too has Slye…7-of-7 FGs made the past two games. He’s hitting 89% of his FG attempts this season and is 3-for-3 on 50+ yarders, and he has always had a big leg. Another brilliant Matt Rhule roster move/cut in 2021. His downside is he’s outdoors the rest of the season, mostly in the northeast PLUS a Week 14 bye.

 

-----------------------------------------------

 

***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***

   

1) WR Tutu Atwell, LAR

Had the long TD in Week 11, but that’s all he had…one target while playing 7 snaps. I don’t think this is a sign of things to come. He’s a one trick pony.

 

2) QB Matt Ryan, IND

I see some FF outlets pushing Ryan as a great start Week 12 against the ‘terrible’ Steelers pass defense. That’s so wrong in so many ways…it’s just looking at seasonal averages and making judgements without knowing the fine print.

The Steelers’ pass defense was bad when they lost T.J. Watt and most of their secondary for most of the 1st-half of the season. They’re getting their guys back since Week 10 and looking a lot better. Burrow smacking them around…that’s Joe Burrow. Matt Ryan is no Joe Burrow. And the new Indy regime is going heavy run game, as they should. You have no reason, in not-a-bye-week to press for Ryan.

 

3) QB Ryan Tannehill, TEN

Great Week 11 vs. GB, but that passer output is an anomaly for Tannehill’s 2022. I do not think some breakout is coming. A good matchup week 12 with Cincy, but he’s not going to be a QB1 projection.

 

4) TE Austin Hooper, TEN

2 TDs Week 11 vs. GB, but on 4 targets and playing the third most snaps of any Tennessee TE. Hooper is getting better/his numbers are rising, but he’s not a force…and plays on an offense that doesn’t sustain a TE for Fantasy, at all.

 

------------------------------

 

***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*

 

-- I know many trade deadlines have come and gone, but most all of the final trade deadlines are this week, so one last round for the 2022 season. --

 

1) TE T.J. Hockenson, MIN

If you’re desperately seeking a solution at TE… I am watching TJH get throw-after-throw from Kirk Cousins…like he’s nearly as important/desired as Justin Jefferson at times. Kyle Pitts can’t get a proper look, but Hockenson is getting a ton…9-10-9 for targets in a game since arriving to Minnesota.

BUT…no TDs and under 50 yards two of those 3 Vikings’ games has made Hockenson as boring as he was in Detroit. I don’t know, I think I see something here trying to develop. I’m not suggesting you pay big money for it, or any money for it…that’s not what this is about, it’s getting him as more a no/low cost TE2 than paying a strong TE1 value (like he was when the euphoria of the trade to MIN hit a few weeks ago).

 

2) RB Damien Harris, NE

Harris is finally back healthy, and he looks good, and he’s working his way back to his split role with Rhamondre Stevenson. Harris is either on waiver wires or is near-to-be-cut on rosters from lack of FF-production. He was the best back on the field Week 11 in the NE v. NYJ game…that means something. This is not a signal to some huge RB1 breakout…more this is a slick no cost RB2 grab for an RB3-4 price for depth for those making their playoff runs and are gearing up appropriately.

 

3) WR Parris Campbell, IND

The numbers with Matt Ryan are terrific of late, and solid again Week 11…yet he’s on many people’s benches or on league waivers. A great depth WR to add for cheap…and he looks terrific on tape…best he’s looked all his career.

 

4) RB D’Onta Foreman, CAR

People (non-FFM) DO NOT believe in Foreman at all. When he gets his 100+ yard rushing game, he sucks them in for the moment and then when he falls short…they hate him and wanna dump him. He just had a terrible game against the Ravens, which has a terrific run defense.

Foreman is a very good NFL RB and will be useful for depth for your FF playoff runs, and is available fairly cheap in deals this week, again.

 

5) TE David Njoku, CLE

Between missing several games with a high ankle sprain and then coming back here to a dull FF game, Njoku is going to be cut in various places or is available dirt cheap. Prior to his injury, Njoku was as good as it got at TE in PPR outside of Kelce-Andrews. He looked 100% healthy Week 11…no worries there. The only concern is -- will Deshaun utilize him to the fullest two weeks from now. Only pay pennies on the dollar…or wait to see if he’s cut in your league this week, to consider as a #2 TE or is a #1 TE hope for the ever-streaming at TE.

 

-------------------------

 

***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as a neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*

  

1) RB Devin Singletary, BUF

Singletary is back scoring TDs of late…no rushing TDs his first 8 games, 3 rushing TDs his last two games. I am wanting to sell that spike hot for the past week+ now, because I don’t believe it sustains, but now more urgency because James Cook is coming on…not that Cook steals the job, but he’s gonna carve into him to a 50-50 split soon, I think.

 

2) WR Michael Pittman, IND

He keeps staying on this list -- his name is bigger than his reality. He’s Donovan Peoples-Jones production 2022, only DPJ is starting to move ahead of Pittman in production.

 

3) WR Deebo Samuel, SF

We’ll see what happens tonight, but for several weeks of the JG era the #1 WR seems to be Aiyuk by a landslide…but everyone in the world assumes it’s Deebo. Deebo has name value, like Pittman, to sell above their reality.

 

4) WR Allen Robinson, LAR

Kupp out…the narrative of ARob getting more touches is still ‘a thing’, I guess, and him scoring a TD Week 11 helps…but ARob was no more involved than normal, and Matt Stafford is never going to make it through this season. If Bryce Perkins goes in, then any semblance of ARob is toast.

 

5) RB Cam Akers, LAR

People love RBs that get 10+ touches in a game the prior week, and Akers got 14 carries Week 11…if you have this, for some reason, then try and sell it for something useful.

 

------------------------------

 

***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***

*Total flier/lowly owned or not-owned players

  

1) RB James Cook, BUF

Starting to make his move on a split backfield, but Cook is a homerun hitter and a real weapon in the pass game waiting to happen. Cook can be better for FF in the 65/35 split as the 35 than most RBs. Plus, he’s the mostly-handcuff for Singletary now.

 

2) WR Jameson Williams, DET

Projected to debut in December sometime…that’s getting too late into the season to really matter but it’s some kind of hope for the FF playoffs…maybe. But maybe he hits right at the beginning of December and is something sweet for FF stretch run and into the playoffs.

Most rookie WRs are taking half a season to get going, so this may be a big to-do about nothing in 2022.

 

3) QB Deshaun Watson, CLE

He makes his debut in 2 weeks…and is a name that might have value to trade ahead of it, as we get closer. Or maybe he does well right off the bat and is useful?

 

4) RB Alexander Mattison, MIN

The clear backup/handcuff to one of the better RB/ground games in the league.

 

5) WR Skyy Moore, KC

It only took injuries to JuJu-Hardman-Toney to discover Skyy Moore is pretty good. With Hardman out, and Toney likely out, there’s room for Skyy to play more and see more targets ahead. But his FF usefulness is checkmated by the likelihood that KC’s coaches go heavy Blake Bell or Marcus Kemp or tackle eligible plays than push the real star talent. *See: Kadarius Toney, and rookie Tyreek Hill.

 

6) WR Nico Collins, HOU

The Texans #1 WR, but how much is that going to FF matter? There’s hope here, but also likely a lot of WR2-3 games as well as WR1 ones.

 

7) WR Terrace Marshall, CAR

Should be the Panthers’ #1 WR, he’s clearly better than D.J. Moore…at a minimum he’s as good but getting lesser coverage. Maybe the Panthers’ QBs will figure this out instead of trying to force it to double-triple covered D.J. Moore every other throw.

 

8) WR Demarcus Robinson, BAL

Get used to it, I guess…this is the Ravens new #1 WR…for whatever that is worth? The worst #1 WR of any team in the NFL -- but it’s working pretty well for FF more than not lately.

 

9) RB Boston Scott, PHI

Miles Sanders is starting to falter, and Philly can’t afford to play around…maybe Scott starts seeing more and more opportunity -- but at a minimum, he’s the handcuff to a great O-Line/run game situation.

 

10) RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA

If Kenneth Walker goes down, Dallas takes over.

 

11) RB Zamir White, LV

What happens if FF’s #1 RB, Josh Jacobs, goes down? It’s Zamir’s game to lose.

 

12) TE Lawrence Cager, NYG

He’s the main starting TE for the Giants and getting integrated more and more into the mix…and with Wan’Dale gone, it opens more chances you’d think. Had a TD play overthrown by Dan Jones Week 8, got a TD Week 10, dropped a TD Week 11. As long as Daniel Bellinger is out, we got something ‘sleeper’ with Cager for FF.

 

13) WR Randall Cobb, GB

He’s back from injury and is technically Rodgers’ favorite WR/BFF. He should get you 3-6 catches for 40-50 yards per game at a minimum…something useful in deeper PPR leagues.

 

---------------------------------

 

 -- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --

  

1) WR Van Jefferson, LAR

He’s a bad WR but some people bit on the hope that he was the post-Kupp injury winner. Nope. There are no winners post-Kupp injury.

 

2) TE Robert Tonyan, GB

Now that Rodgers has a real WR trio, no need for Tonyan to see TE1 level targeting…ever.

 

3) WR Devin Duvernay, BAL

The Ravens think Demarcus Robinson is better. Message received.

 

4) RB A.J. Dillon, GB

The Packers think Aaron Jones is their Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry all rolled into one.

 

5) WR Chase Claypool, CHI

I think they forgot they acquired him the past two weeks.

 

6) Kyle Pitts, ATL

He’s likely done for the season, and if he returns late…who cares? Week 17 v. ARI would be awesome for most, but probably not gimpy Pitts…who should not return early to preserve his healthy/future earnings potential.

 

--------------------------------

 

***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVERS(?) OPTIONS***--

 

1) Chiefs-DST

I’m a broken record on this DST for the finish, and they were put onto a lot of free agency lists for fear of the LAC offense.

Week 12 = LAR…now one of the best offenses to take on.

Week 13 = at CIN…not a great matchup.

Week 14 = at DEN…yes, please.

Week 15 = at HOU…nice.

Week 16 = SEA…not great, but do-able.

Week 17 = DEN …yep, we’ll take two DEN matchups in 4 weeks.

 

2) Dolphins-DST

Week 12 = hosting HOU, a great matchup when HOU goes on the road especially.

Just a one-week option.

 

 

3) Jets-DST

Only allowed an FG to the Patriots, on offense, Week 11…this NYJ defense is becoming quite the unit, one of the best defenses in the league.

Not great matchups the next 4 weeks, but this defense is so good they might just blow through most of the matchups.

Week 12 = CHI

Week 13 = at MIN

Week 14 = at BUF…not great but the weather could make it a mess/slog.

Week 15 = DET…not perfect but the Jets may handle the decent DET offense…and this would be at cold, windy NYJ.

Week 16 = JAX…I like it at cold, windy NYJ.

Week 17 = at SEA…OK matchup, not great.

 

 

4) Seahawks-DST

A top 10 FF scoring DST this season due to a high sack and turnover rate, and they’re young and improving as we go. Week 11 bye and three games that are FF-hopeful Weeks 12-14.

This is a play ahead for the more desperate for options week-to-week.

Week 12 = v. LV

Week 13 = at LAR (a good matchup suddenly)

Week 14 = v. CAR

 

 

5) Steelers-DST

Too risky to play against Cincy Week 11, but then if they stay healthy, they’re an option Weeks 12-16 with fairly favorable matchups and the Week 14 hosting BAL is usually a lower scoring war. The risk is Pittsburgh falls out of the race too far to take advantage of the better matchup hopes.

Week 12 = at Indy…so-so matchup.

Week 13 = at ATL…OK matchup

Week 14 = v. BAL…always a war.

Week 15 = at CAR…nice

Week 16 = v. LV…workable and maybe favorable in the cold/outdoors for not-used-to-it LV.

Week 17 = at BAL…always a war, and in the cold.

 

 

6) Colts-DST

Good option for this upcoming week, before their schedule turns on them Week 13 on.

Week 12 = PIT…good matchup.

 

---------------------------------

 

 -- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --

 

1) ILB Jack Sanborn, CHI

The last time I should/could list him here because he’s getting discovered by the mainstream finally. Three starts with Roquan gone, and he is averaging: 9.3 tackles per game with 2 sacks and 2.5 TFLs. He’s gone from deep sleeper to legit LB1 hope, suddenly.

 

2) SAF Darrick Forrest, WSH

A pick in each of his last two games, 3 picks on the season, 5.0 tackles per game the past two weeks as he is moving into a stronger role with this emerging defense.

 

3) LB Kaden Elliss, NO

FINALLY, after years of pining away for him as a deep sleeper…Elliss is playing for Pete Werner and has 7.7 tackles, 1.2 sacks per game in the past three weeks…at least 1.0 sacks in each of his last 3 games. He has terrific measurables and it’s starting to show.

 

4) DE Michael Clemons, NYJ

The rookie pass rusher is starting to get more playing time and he has a sack in two of his last 3 games. I like his upside as a pass rusher. He’s a real talent with upside.

 

-------------------------------

 

OUTTRO:

Have a great holiday week and partake in too much awesome Thanksgiving food…especially those of us in non-gallbladder nation!

Happy Thanksgiving: https://youtu.be/z3G8Dpa3obU

NO Video Q&A tonight (no TNF game)
The Dual DST Theory for 2021…

From Our Sponsors

The Kansas City Chiefs are 2019 NFC Champs - get your gear on at Fanatics
 

sideline caps

Description Code Link Start End
Veterans, Active Duty and Retired Military Save 10% on All Orders with ID.Me Verification Requires ID.me Verification CLICK 11/15/16 NEVER
Shop for Thousands of 100% Authentic Autographed Sports Collectibles at SportsMemorabilia.com

Our Newsletter

About

R.C. Fischer
R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. Learn More >>
ffm logo home

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

ffm logo home

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

ffm logo home

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

SUBSCRIBE NOW >>
Get the app
App link only works on mobile.
Customer Service
"The scouting home for serious, high-stakes dynasty fantasy football profiteers
rss feed

2022 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 11

Date:
November 21, 2022

 

2022 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 11

 

Everything was going along pretty swimmingly for most FFMers in Week 11…until Sunday night.

FFMers were on pace to win approx. 2/3rds of their FF games at a critical junction of the FF season…just needed Kadarius Toney to do his thing, anything, and then there were a few who were counting on a returning Mike Williams to have a normal/decent game to pull them to a Week 11 victory or provide a cushion going into the MNF game. Well, we know how that turned out. Kadarius got a zero and left the game early with a hamstring…and Mike Williams left in the 1st-quarter, reaggravating his ankle.

We don’t know how these games would’ve turned out for Toney-Williams had they not gotten hurt, but the reality was devastating…for those who used them. It’s almost fitting for this 2022 season to finally have Toney come around while on my bench mostly the prior week, and then many of us excitedly starting him Week 11 with JuJu-Hardman gone…what could go wrong? How could this not be a WR1 event this week? Toney killed me redrafting him in August and prior months in Best Ball, and trading for him in Dynasty all year, and sitting him for his sweet Week 10, then starting him for his zero Week 11. The ultimate FF heartache.

Well, the Week 11 dud has dragged the FFM universal win-rate averages to around 55-60% projected...depending upon what happens tonight. What might have been 70%+ drops 10%+ off the SNF Toney mess.

Nothing you can do but move on to next week if Toney burned you for a loss this week. You can only stare for so long at all the options on your bench that coulda got you the win over Toney. In-game injuries happen, and this one stung several of us at a critical time. Why ‘my guys’ always get hurt in-game early, after doing nothing while most in-game injuries for others happen in the 4th-quarter late after the player stacked a great FF game…I don’t know. All I can do is move on to Week 12.

Where I didn’t have or need Toney, it was mostly all good. But the Toney event really chaps my arse, on behalf of everyone.

Three games left for most leagues before the FF playoffs. Everyone who is in the playoffs, a game out, or those eliminated from the playoffs -- you know what to do for Week 12 prep. But I want to speak to the two games out with 3 games to-go FF teams…it’s a simple message: just win Week 12 and see what happens. It could draw you a game out with two to-go and maybe you’ll just need one more win in final two to win via tiebreakers or need to win two in-a-row, which is totally do-able no matter how bad your team is banged up (because more byes and injuries coming Weeks 13-14). 2022 has shown us over-and-over again that the inexplicable becomes ‘splicable’…injuries hit and bring high and mighty teams to their knees. If you have playoff life still, even bleak appearing -- keep fighting. I get so many stories of teams that finished on a 2-3 game win streak out of nowhere to slide into the playoffs then run the table hot as a pistol and/or having grabbed the new hot thing off waivers just at the right time, etc.

 

Couple Week 12 things to consider…

 -- It’s Thanksgiving week, which means many football analysts are on vacation/mailing it in pre-vacation. We should have an advantage this week …because I don’t take time off, not even a jacked-up gallbladder surgery and hospital stay can stop me. I’ll be working the normal ‘doubles’ every day. I’ll eat a big lunch Thursday and be working all the rest of the week otherwise.

Tuesday Night Waivers Video Q&A will happen as normal, so will Sunday morning sit-start but I’ll also do a special Thursday morning sit-start/pregame Video Q&A to get us kicked off properly for Week 12.

 -- No byes this week, so all the players back in the pool…but byes again Weeks 13-14.

 -- This week most all FF owners are sidetracked with the holidays, as you should be. Much of your competition is going to be distracted and there will be less info from the mainstream media who is also distracted this week…so, there is a good chance the competition in your leagues makes more mistakes this week than any other week of the FF-season. Advantage = us.

I will be on top of everything I can all week and keep you informed as best I can so you can relax and enjoy the holiday.

 -- The NFL teams have weird schedules this week too…different/limited practice schedules, three games on Thursday, etc. Information won’t come out like the normal flow on injury reports and rumors, etc. I’ll try to shake down all my sources as best I can, as I always do this particular weird week every year, so we can be another step ahead of everyone.

 

Holiday week distractions. No bye week. Three Thursday games. A lot of curveballs this week, but it’s a huge must-win week to try and get over on the competition. Let’s lock down some critical wins during this weird week…let’s enjoy the time off and food and family and football.

Let me capture Week 11 in one video:  https://youtu.be/RhJJ4yDafhw

  

*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.

A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.

 

 

CHI-ATL

 -- Justin Fields (14-21 for 153 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 18-85-1) not only kept up his run attack superpower, but he also advanced it further with a career high 18 rushing attempts. It is now the Chicago offense…Fields running early and often.

Fields is going to flirt with 100+ yards rushing every game the rest of the season…but now defenses are paralyzed for fear of the run/trying to overload to stop it, so there was plenty of pass game opportunity with no pressure…and that helps Mooney-Kmet…and Fields to throw TD passes.

Five quality starts in-a-row for Fields as he continues to push towards the #1 QB in PPG for FF 2022.

Now, late game Fields took some big blows running the ball and hurt his shoulder…and was actually carted off. Reports vary on the extent of his injuries. We’ll have to see how bad it is this week. Fields down and out kills that nuclear bomb event Fields had become for FF…and destroys Kmet-Mooney as well.

 -- Apparently the Fields breakout doesn’t help Chase Claypool (2-11-0/3), who after his debut excitement has barely been seen on the field or getting targets. Going from Pitt to Chicago looks like a worse situation so far.

 -- Another Kyle Pitts (3-43-0/5) dud…he got hurt midgame and left the contest, but the situation prior was still the same…low pass game volume and low output for Pitts and everyone on the Falcons passing game. *Pitts tore his ACL…he’ll be done for the year, most likely.

 

CLE-BUF

 -- David Njoku (2-17-0/3) looked fine. He made a nice play midgame for 22-yards, leaping a defender…and he really went up high. Earlier in the game he got a 20+ yard toss right to him but as he caught it a safety closed in and blew him up to dislodge the catch. Everything looked fine…just not his game and he wasn’t in late that much when the game was getting out of hand, he didn’t get in on the garbage.

 -- This was the game where James Cook (11-86-0, 0-0-0/2) ‘arrived’…he’s been looking better and better for weeks, and that means he’s likely to split touches from here on in with Devin Singletary (18-86-1, 2-11-0/2). Cook has homerun hitting ability as a runner and is most known for his stellar pass game ability, which Buffalo has shown zero interest in exploring…inexplicably. If they do, then Cook is going to be FF viable.

 -- Donovan Peoples-Jones (5-61-1/6) is not only productive week-to-week, but he looks fantastic. He’s really come around as a legit #2 NFL WR showing some #1 WR skills. Six of his last 7 games in double digit PPR scoring, just a lack of TDs hurting his full quality start numbers. DPJ has two quality starts in-a-row and is a (2/8) this season.

 

PHI-IND

 -- The Eagles-DST got punched in the face in Indy’s first series or two, but then the Eagles settled in and played tough defense, ground and air, the final three quarters…holding Indy to just field goals the rest of the final 3 quarters with a few clutch red zone stops. I feel better about them now, after getting smacked around vs. Washington the week prior. The schedule the rest of the way is mostly favorable.

 -- The Colts-DST continues to be solid…holding a quality Philly offense to 17 points. They’ve held five of their last 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. They are tough to pass on…thus our lower A.J. Brown (5-60-0/7) and DeVonta Smith (6-78-0/9) projections…and their mild WR2-3 results.

Good enough matchup with the Steelers Week 12 and then schedule drops from there (at DAL, bye, at MIN, LAC the following 4 games).

 -- From the live watch, it looked like Philly was getting a little frustrated with Miles Sanders’ (13-47-0, 1-1-0/1) inefficiency (been growing for 3 weeks now). I saw a little more purposed Boston Scott (3-8-0, 2-4-0/2) in the game in a few spots…something to watch, especially if Philly had lost this game.

Sanders has 5.4 and 5.8 PPR points in a game in his last two games. He’s a (4/6) this season, a (2/4) his last 6 games.

 

NYJ-NE

 -- Start up the QB controversy talk in New York…Zach Wilson (9-22 for 77 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 3-26-0) played a flat/inefficient game in a huge spot where NYJ could’ve been in 1st-place with a win. Instead, a loss, 3 total points on offense, and Wilson with 27% Comp. Pct. and 77 yards passing. I think they are prepping for a Mike White takeover at some point, but probably not Week 12…one more loss with garbage performance might do it.

 -- Had the Pats lost to sink deep into last place in the division, the QB controversy/switch may have been on tap with Mac Jones (23-27 for 246 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) doing nothing here but simple safe passing…and Belichick wants some Bailey Zappe. This win holds that talk off another few weeks, at a minimum.

 -- Both teams feature split backfields with two solid RBs, but the best-looking RB of this game was our ‘outta nowhere’ RB this week: Damien Harris (8-65-0, 2-28-0/2). Harris got lost with a high ankle sprain several weeks ago, had too fast return (wasn’t fully ready yet) Week 7, then a decent touch count in a Week 8 return followed by missing Week 9 with an illness then a bye Week 10…so he kinda went off the grid for a few weeks. He earned more touches ahead with this performance…he earned his starting job back potentially.

Harris is a (2/6) this season, but in games he’s actually played his normal role he’s a (2/4) with four-of-6 double-digit PPR games in those 6 ‘normal role’/snap count games.

 

LAR-NO

 -- If Matt Stafford (11-18 for 159 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is hurt/out again for a few weeks, or gets shut down, Bryce Perkins (5-10 for 64 yards, 5 -39-0) is a deep sleeper emergency use option in 4pts pass TD because he is a decent runner/run-first mobile QB, but very limited passer.

 -- Juwan Johnson (3-47-1/4) and Andy Dalton (21-25 for 260 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) are developing good chemistry the past couple weeks. I’m seeing Dalton force throws to him, looking at him off the snap…which means we got legit TE1 hopes any given week here with JJ.

If I ‘round up’ (13.7 PPR this game), Juwan has back-to-back quality starts and is a (3/2) the past 5 games…a (3/8) this season. Still the targets are a bit too low to get too excited…5-4-2-7-4 for targets his last 5 games.

 -- As predicted, Allen Robinson (4-47-1/5) did not get a super-spike with Cooper Kupp gone. ARob didn’t get his first targets until into the 2nd-quarter. I think my theory was correct…there is no real winner from Kupp being gone. And Ben Skowronek (1-4-0/4) didn’t step up either.

ARob is a (3/7) this season.

 

DET-NYG

 -- Last week, I mentioned Wan’Dale Robinson (9-100-0/13) looking better and better, despite the lack of production of late, and that he had deep sleeper appeal…but I didn’t think he’d crush it like he did this week. He’s a simple play/throw for NYG/Dan Jones. This should keep up, but NYG rarely is consistent with touches to WRs…but I’m interested here because they use him like he’s ‘their Tyreek’, a very poor man’s edition.

Robinson sustained a late game injury…could be an ACL, costing him his season. Unsure as of this Monday morning writing.

 -- Darius Slayton (5-86-0/10) has been the more consistent NYG WR…their #1/alpha. 4.5 rec. (6.5 targets), 76.3 yards, 0.50 TDs per game. Double digit PPR games in five of his last 6 games.

If I ‘round up’ his 13+ point PPR games to a quality start (14.0+), then Slayton is a (4/2) his last 6 games…one of the most productive PPR WRs in the game the past 6-7 weeks.

 -- Justin Jackson (9-66-0, 1-11-0/1) has seemingly, now, moved ahead of D’Andre Swift (5-20-1, 3-12-0/3) in the pecking order. How low the redraft 1st-round pick has fallen…

 

CAR-BAL

 -- The Ravens defense is turning into one of the top run defenses/most feared defenses for your opposing RB defense out there since the Roquan Smith deal…more state’s evidence of that turn here with D’Onta Foreman (11-24-0, 0-0-0/1) getting locked down. Next week BAL vs. Travis Etienne.

 -- I want to make fun of or dismiss Demarcus Robinson’s (9-128-0/9) big game but it’s no joke…he’s the Ravens #1 WR, 6-1-9 for catches in a game the past three games with Rashod Bateman gone. Devin Duvernay (1-3-0/1, 1-4-0) cannot get to free agency fast enough. DRob is a (1/9) this season with his one in Week 11.

 -- Terrace Marshall (3-76-0/8) is hands down the Panthers best WR, but I don’t know that he saw a target in the 1st-half because Steve Wilks is…well, you know…we’ve seen this before.

Marshall had two tough catch opportunities in this game…they were tough but they were possible/catchable balls that he couldn’t come down with…one for 20+ yards and another in the end zone. He was close to a blowout scoring in the 2nd-half. Why the Carolina QBs don’t realize Marshall is a big play weapon right away in games is beyond me. What tape are they studying all week? Three of his last 4 games with double-digit PPR games.

 

WSH-HOU

 -- This was a miserable FF game. Everyone underperformed in this drudgery except for Antonio Gibson (18-72-0, 3-31-0/3)…and that’s it. It feels like Gibson is pulling his starting job back, but really it’s a hot hand plan every week. Four double-digit PPR games in his last 5 games.

 -- Nico Collins (5-48-0/7) got good ‘the guy’ treatment at times here, but this game was so miserable/this Houston offense so dreadful, it only amounted to a WR3 output. Three double-digit PPR games in his last 5 games.

 -- Logan Thomas (5-65-0/6) showed a little spark in this game…working well with Heinicke. He might get on the TE1/2 map next week or so.  

 

LV-DEN

 -- If you can’t get anything out of Russell Wilson (24-31 for 247 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) against Las Vegas with them missing their top corner (Hobbs) still AND a change in their play calling…then there’s pretty much no matchups/situations you can trust for this sad Denver offense. Russ is a (1/8) this season.

 -- With Jeudy-Hamler out, it would have been a logical/good time for Denver to give unique playmaking rookies Montrell Washington and Jalen Virgil some looks…combined they had 0 targets. Nathaniel Hackett is so fired this offseason.

 -- Chandler Jones (5 assisted tackles) was signed to a 3-year/$53M deal with $32M guaranteed this offseason…because ‘ex-Patriot’. Jones has just 0.5 sacks in 9 games this season. He has 1.5 sacks in his last 13 games.

 

DAL-MIN

 -- This wasn’t even a game from the jump…the RB duo of Pollard-Elliott accounted for all 4 TDs and everything else on both sides of the ball died off for FF.

Pollard is a (5/5) this season with three straight Q-starts…three straight 24+ PPR point events, with two 35+ efforts in those last three games.

Zeke is a surprising (4/4) this season…with three straight quality starts.

 -- The Dallas-DST was smacked around by the Packers last week, and last week’s game was the second game in a row that they allowed 200+ yards rushing as a defense. I was wondering how this DST would respond Week 11…and they responded. Fears subsided.

 -- Brett Maher (4/4 FGs, 4 XPs) hit two 50+ yard FGs and a 60-yard FG in a game where he scored enough points to be a top 5 QB, RB, WR and the top TE. He may be the top scoring PPG kicker in all FF for the season after this surreal week.

 

CIN-PIT

  -- George Pickens (4-83-1/6) is not the theoretical/hopeful #1 WR for the Steelers/Pickett…he IS the #1 WR. This game tape was the proof. Pickens doesn’t even know how good he is. He’s still growing into the NFL #1 role. He turned the wrong way on a wide-open bomb/50+ yard TD early in the game and then just flat-out dropped a wide-open 50+ yard TD bomb with under 2 minutes. He doesn’t usually drop passes…but I note all this because this was almost a ‘wow’ game with 150-200 yards and 2-3 TDs.

Meanwhile Diontae Johnson (4-21-0/5) got some short, junk targets by comparison. Pickens is only going to get better from here.

Pickens is a (5/5) this season…(5/2) his last 7 games.

Buckle up for this…Diontae is a (1/9) this season with (0/7) in his last 7 games.

 -- This was an actual good game from Najee Harris (20-90-2, 4-26-0/6), boosted by the injury loss of Jaylen Warren early in the game. The Steelers think they have something with Najee now, so it’s gonna be heavier Najee from here on in…and if Warren is going to miss time, the Najee’s numbers will go even higher by volume in the passing game. Najee is (2/8) this season but had a career high game Week 11.

 -- Joe Mixon (7-20-0, 3-42-0/3), missed about half this game with the concussion protocol and was ruled out. We’ll see if he can get back for Week 12. If not, Samaje Perine (11-30-0, 4-52-3/4) is the RB1 threat handcuff to play Week 12.

 

KC-LAC

 -- Kadarius Toney (0-0-0/1) has the worst hamstrings in the NFL. He left the game after 1.5 quarters and didn’t return and will be questionable and probably out for Week 12…totally blowing his great opportunity.

And, for good measure, you see what I was saying on last week’s Executive Report and the Tuesday night Video Q&A -- Kansas City has a rich history of ignoring talent like Toney (and rookie Tyreek), so guess what happened in their biggest game of the year, the game to put away the Chargers in the division for 2022? They went heavy Jody Fortson (2-51-0/2) to start…and random, sparse Toney.

 -- Mike Williams (1-15-0/1) got re-hurt making a catch early in the game, which in part helped launch Josh Palmer (8-106-2/10) to his best game ever. If Williams is out again…Palmer is back on the board. Palmer is a (3/1) in his last 4 games with Big Mike out.

 -- The Toney injury helped Skyy Moore (5-63-0/6) see more time and we got a glimpse of what could’ve been for months now, but, again, this is what KC does…heavy Justin Watson and Jody Fortson, less Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney. Hey…the Chiefs keep winning, so why should they do anything different. Man, I hope the Titans or Bengals knock them off in the playoffs as a punitive damage.  

 

JAX bye: Week 12 will see no BYEs for the Thanksgiving week, so no need for messing with Evan Engram with all the TE options that will be available. Engram has averaged 2.0 rec., 11.0 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game the past two weeks. He’s a (1/9) this season.

 

TB bye: Big test Week 12…who will the Bucs lean on as their main back? I fear it will be Rachaad White getting the start, and then Leonard Fournette out-touching him from there…but we’ll see. If Fournette misses Week 12 with a worse hip injury than they let on…then White is an RB1 projection for Week 12. We’ll be gathering intel on this situation all week leading up to their Sunday game with the Browns.

 

MIA bye: The Dolphins-DST has been wonderful at home and crushed on the road. This week/Week 12…at home vs. Houston. You gotta love it!

 

SEA bye: Marquise Goodwin has 3.0 rec., 41.0 yards, 0.75 TDs per game in his last 4 games. He’s getting onto the flex radar, especially during bye weeks for a fill-in in deeper leagues.

 

 

  ===== FIVE PLAYERS =====

 

*** FIVE FREE AGENT PLAYERS TO TRUST***

*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.

**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..

***IF FAAB% mentioned at any time below is based on a 16–20-man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, and lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.

 

*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.

 

1) RB Samaje Perine, CIN (Grade: B-/C+?)

If Joe Mixon misses Week 12 with a concussion, Perine is going to get RB1 touches…but doing so against the vaunted top run defense of the Tennessee Titans. RB1 touches, but maybe RB2 output? Good for a week only, then Mixon should be back…if he isn’t back Week 12 anyway. If Mixon is playing Week 12, then this is a useless waiver…except to hold the valuable Mixon handcuff.

 

2) WR Parris Campbell, IND (Grade: B-/C+)

Another solid output game (5-67-0/6) with Matt Ryan in Week 11…not his best output during this hot run with Ryan, but useful. Good matchups the rest of the way. This is a WR that is a solid start every week now.

 

3) WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Grade: C+)

Quality game after quality game…not only statistically, but the way he is playing. He’s playing as technically sound of wide receiver play as anyone in the league right now, outside of the obvious elite names. The question becomes…how does Deshaun work with him going forward?

 

4) WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Grade: C)

He is moving and looking like a star is born, but he is stuck on a typically low volume passing game and he doesn’t play but 50-60% of the snaps in games right now. Tennessee may give into this more ahead, but right now it’s not a for-sure thing like the other breakout rookie WRs becoming 95-100% snap count #1 target WRs for their teams.

 

5) TE Juwan Johnson, NO (Grade: C-/D+)

Five TDs in his last 5 games. I was a little early to this party to start the season, but I’m starting to be proven ‘right’ of late on JJ.

 

6a) PK Chase McLaughlin, IND (grade: D)

Since Week 5, he’s the #6 PK in FF PPG. He’s hit five (of 7) 50+ yard FGs so far this season and kicks in a dome his next 4 games in-a-row but does have an annoying Week 14 BYE.

 

6b) PK Cameron Dicker, LAC (Grade: D)

12 of 12 FGs made so far as LAC kicker and 8 of 8 XPs. He’s hot, and if he keeps the job (you have to assume), he’s in a dome the next six straight weeks while other kickers are dealing with inclement conditions. The downside is Dicker is not a long-range kicker…0-for-0 on 50 yards attempts so far this season. He was 4-of-8 on 50+ yarders in college over 4 seasons, one 50+ FG made per season. If distance of kicks doesn’t matter for your scoring…Dicker would be with/over McLaughlin.

 

8) PK Joey Slye, WSH (Grade: D-)

As the Commanders have started to rise, so too has Slye…7-of-7 FGs made the past two games. He’s hitting 89% of his FG attempts this season and is 3-for-3 on 50+ yarders, and he has always had a big leg. Another brilliant Matt Rhule roster move/cut in 2021. His downside is he’s outdoors the rest of the season, mostly in the northeast PLUS a Week 14 bye.

 

-----------------------------------------------

 

***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***

   

1) WR Tutu Atwell, LAR

Had the long TD in Week 11, but that’s all he had…one target while playing 7 snaps. I don’t think this is a sign of things to come. He’s a one trick pony.

 

2) QB Matt Ryan, IND

I see some FF outlets pushing Ryan as a great start Week 12 against the ‘terrible’ Steelers pass defense. That’s so wrong in so many ways…it’s just looking at seasonal averages and making judgements without knowing the fine print.

The Steelers’ pass defense was bad when they lost T.J. Watt and most of their secondary for most of the 1st-half of the season. They’re getting their guys back since Week 10 and looking a lot better. Burrow smacking them around…that’s Joe Burrow. Matt Ryan is no Joe Burrow. And the new Indy regime is going heavy run game, as they should. You have no reason, in not-a-bye-week to press for Ryan.

 

3) QB Ryan Tannehill, TEN

Great Week 11 vs. GB, but that passer output is an anomaly for Tannehill’s 2022. I do not think some breakout is coming. A good matchup week 12 with Cincy, but he’s not going to be a QB1 projection.

 

4) TE Austin Hooper, TEN

2 TDs Week 11 vs. GB, but on 4 targets and playing the third most snaps of any Tennessee TE. Hooper is getting better/his numbers are rising, but he’s not a force…and plays on an offense that doesn’t sustain a TE for Fantasy, at all.

 

------------------------------

 

***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*

 

-- I know many trade deadlines have come and gone, but most all of the final trade deadlines are this week, so one last round for the 2022 season. --

 

1) TE T.J. Hockenson, MIN

If you’re desperately seeking a solution at TE… I am watching TJH get throw-after-throw from Kirk Cousins…like he’s nearly as important/desired as Justin Jefferson at times. Kyle Pitts can’t get a proper look, but Hockenson is getting a ton…9-10-9 for targets in a game since arriving to Minnesota.

BUT…no TDs and under 50 yards two of those 3 Vikings’ games has made Hockenson as boring as he was in Detroit. I don’t know, I think I see something here trying to develop. I’m not suggesting you pay big money for it, or any money for it…that’s not what this is about, it’s getting him as more a no/low cost TE2 than paying a strong TE1 value (like he was when the euphoria of the trade to MIN hit a few weeks ago).

 

2) RB Damien Harris, NE

Harris is finally back healthy, and he looks good, and he’s working his way back to his split role with Rhamondre Stevenson. Harris is either on waiver wires or is near-to-be-cut on rosters from lack of FF-production. He was the best back on the field Week 11 in the NE v. NYJ game…that means something. This is not a signal to some huge RB1 breakout…more this is a slick no cost RB2 grab for an RB3-4 price for depth for those making their playoff runs and are gearing up appropriately.

 

3) WR Parris Campbell, IND

The numbers with Matt Ryan are terrific of late, and solid again Week 11…yet he’s on many people’s benches or on league waivers. A great depth WR to add for cheap…and he looks terrific on tape…best he’s looked all his career.

 

4) RB D’Onta Foreman, CAR

People (non-FFM) DO NOT believe in Foreman at all. When he gets his 100+ yard rushing game, he sucks them in for the moment and then when he falls short…they hate him and wanna dump him. He just had a terrible game against the Ravens, which has a terrific run defense.

Foreman is a very good NFL RB and will be useful for depth for your FF playoff runs, and is available fairly cheap in deals this week, again.

 

5) TE David Njoku, CLE

Between missing several games with a high ankle sprain and then coming back here to a dull FF game, Njoku is going to be cut in various places or is available dirt cheap. Prior to his injury, Njoku was as good as it got at TE in PPR outside of Kelce-Andrews. He looked 100% healthy Week 11…no worries there. The only concern is -- will Deshaun utilize him to the fullest two weeks from now. Only pay pennies on the dollar…or wait to see if he’s cut in your league this week, to consider as a #2 TE or is a #1 TE hope for the ever-streaming at TE.

 

-------------------------

 

***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as a neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*

  

1) RB Devin Singletary, BUF

Singletary is back scoring TDs of late…no rushing TDs his first 8 games, 3 rushing TDs his last two games. I am wanting to sell that spike hot for the past week+ now, because I don’t believe it sustains, but now more urgency because James Cook is coming on…not that Cook steals the job, but he’s gonna carve into him to a 50-50 split soon, I think.

 

2) WR Michael Pittman, IND

He keeps staying on this list -- his name is bigger than his reality. He’s Donovan Peoples-Jones production 2022, only DPJ is starting to move ahead of Pittman in production.

 

3) WR Deebo Samuel, SF

We’ll see what happens tonight, but for several weeks of the JG era the #1 WR seems to be Aiyuk by a landslide…but everyone in the world assumes it’s Deebo. Deebo has name value, like Pittman, to sell above their reality.

 

4) WR Allen Robinson, LAR

Kupp out…the narrative of ARob getting more touches is still ‘a thing’, I guess, and him scoring a TD Week 11 helps…but ARob was no more involved than normal, and Matt Stafford is never going to make it through this season. If Bryce Perkins goes in, then any semblance of ARob is toast.

 

5) RB Cam Akers, LAR

People love RBs that get 10+ touches in a game the prior week, and Akers got 14 carries Week 11…if you have this, for some reason, then try and sell it for something useful.

 

------------------------------

 

***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***

*Total flier/lowly owned or not-owned players

  

1) RB James Cook, BUF

Starting to make his move on a split backfield, but Cook is a homerun hitter and a real weapon in the pass game waiting to happen. Cook can be better for FF in the 65/35 split as the 35 than most RBs. Plus, he’s the mostly-handcuff for Singletary now.

 

2) WR Jameson Williams, DET

Projected to debut in December sometime…that’s getting too late into the season to really matter but it’s some kind of hope for the FF playoffs…maybe. But maybe he hits right at the beginning of December and is something sweet for FF stretch run and into the playoffs.

Most rookie WRs are taking half a season to get going, so this may be a big to-do about nothing in 2022.

 

3) QB Deshaun Watson, CLE

He makes his debut in 2 weeks…and is a name that might have value to trade ahead of it, as we get closer. Or maybe he does well right off the bat and is useful?

 

4) RB Alexander Mattison, MIN

The clear backup/handcuff to one of the better RB/ground games in the league.

 

5) WR Skyy Moore, KC

It only took injuries to JuJu-Hardman-Toney to discover Skyy Moore is pretty good. With Hardman out, and Toney likely out, there’s room for Skyy to play more and see more targets ahead. But his FF usefulness is checkmated by the likelihood that KC’s coaches go heavy Blake Bell or Marcus Kemp or tackle eligible plays than push the real star talent. *See: Kadarius Toney, and rookie Tyreek Hill.

 

6) WR Nico Collins, HOU

The Texans #1 WR, but how much is that going to FF matter? There’s hope here, but also likely a lot of WR2-3 games as well as WR1 ones.

 

7) WR Terrace Marshall, CAR

Should be the Panthers’ #1 WR, he’s clearly better than D.J. Moore…at a minimum he’s as good but getting lesser coverage. Maybe the Panthers’ QBs will figure this out instead of trying to force it to double-triple covered D.J. Moore every other throw.

 

8) WR Demarcus Robinson, BAL

Get used to it, I guess…this is the Ravens new #1 WR…for whatever that is worth? The worst #1 WR of any team in the NFL -- but it’s working pretty well for FF more than not lately.

 

9) RB Boston Scott, PHI

Miles Sanders is starting to falter, and Philly can’t afford to play around…maybe Scott starts seeing more and more opportunity -- but at a minimum, he’s the handcuff to a great O-Line/run game situation.

 

10) RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA

If Kenneth Walker goes down, Dallas takes over.

 

11) RB Zamir White, LV

What happens if FF’s #1 RB, Josh Jacobs, goes down? It’s Zamir’s game to lose.

 

12) TE Lawrence Cager, NYG

He’s the main starting TE for the Giants and getting integrated more and more into the mix…and with Wan’Dale gone, it opens more chances you’d think. Had a TD play overthrown by Dan Jones Week 8, got a TD Week 10, dropped a TD Week 11. As long as Daniel Bellinger is out, we got something ‘sleeper’ with Cager for FF.

 

13) WR Randall Cobb, GB

He’s back from injury and is technically Rodgers’ favorite WR/BFF. He should get you 3-6 catches for 40-50 yards per game at a minimum…something useful in deeper PPR leagues.

 

---------------------------------

 

 -- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --

  

1) WR Van Jefferson, LAR

He’s a bad WR but some people bit on the hope that he was the post-Kupp injury winner. Nope. There are no winners post-Kupp injury.

 

2) TE Robert Tonyan, GB

Now that Rodgers has a real WR trio, no need for Tonyan to see TE1 level targeting…ever.

 

3) WR Devin Duvernay, BAL

The Ravens think Demarcus Robinson is better. Message received.

 

4) RB A.J. Dillon, GB

The Packers think Aaron Jones is their Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry all rolled into one.

 

5) WR Chase Claypool, CHI

I think they forgot they acquired him the past two weeks.

 

6) Kyle Pitts, ATL

He’s likely done for the season, and if he returns late…who cares? Week 17 v. ARI would be awesome for most, but probably not gimpy Pitts…who should not return early to preserve his healthy/future earnings potential.

 

--------------------------------

 

***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVERS(?) OPTIONS***--

 

1) Chiefs-DST

I’m a broken record on this DST for the finish, and they were put onto a lot of free agency lists for fear of the LAC offense.

Week 12 = LAR…now one of the best offenses to take on.

Week 13 = at CIN…not a great matchup.

Week 14 = at DEN…yes, please.

Week 15 = at HOU…nice.

Week 16 = SEA…not great, but do-able.

Week 17 = DEN …yep, we’ll take two DEN matchups in 4 weeks.

 

2) Dolphins-DST

Week 12 = hosting HOU, a great matchup when HOU goes on the road especially.

Just a one-week option.

 

 

3) Jets-DST

Only allowed an FG to the Patriots, on offense, Week 11…this NYJ defense is becoming quite the unit, one of the best defenses in the league.

Not great matchups the next 4 weeks, but this defense is so good they might just blow through most of the matchups.

Week 12 = CHI

Week 13 = at MIN

Week 14 = at BUF…not great but the weather could make it a mess/slog.

Week 15 = DET…not perfect but the Jets may handle the decent DET offense…and this would be at cold, windy NYJ.

Week 16 = JAX…I like it at cold, windy NYJ.

Week 17 = at SEA…OK matchup, not great.

 

 

4) Seahawks-DST

A top 10 FF scoring DST this season due to a high sack and turnover rate, and they’re young and improving as we go. Week 11 bye and three games that are FF-hopeful Weeks 12-14.

This is a play ahead for the more desperate for options week-to-week.

Week 12 = v. LV

Week 13 = at LAR (a good matchup suddenly)

Week 14 = v. CAR

 

 

5) Steelers-DST

Too risky to play against Cincy Week 11, but then if they stay healthy, they’re an option Weeks 12-16 with fairly favorable matchups and the Week 14 hosting BAL is usually a lower scoring war. The risk is Pittsburgh falls out of the race too far to take advantage of the better matchup hopes.

Week 12 = at Indy…so-so matchup.

Week 13 = at ATL…OK matchup

Week 14 = v. BAL…always a war.

Week 15 = at CAR…nice

Week 16 = v. LV…workable and maybe favorable in the cold/outdoors for not-used-to-it LV.

Week 17 = at BAL…always a war, and in the cold.

 

 

6) Colts-DST

Good option for this upcoming week, before their schedule turns on them Week 13 on.

Week 12 = PIT…good matchup.

 

---------------------------------

 

 -- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --

 

1) ILB Jack Sanborn, CHI

The last time I should/could list him here because he’s getting discovered by the mainstream finally. Three starts with Roquan gone, and he is averaging: 9.3 tackles per game with 2 sacks and 2.5 TFLs. He’s gone from deep sleeper to legit LB1 hope, suddenly.

 

2) SAF Darrick Forrest, WSH

A pick in each of his last two games, 3 picks on the season, 5.0 tackles per game the past two weeks as he is moving into a stronger role with this emerging defense.

 

3) LB Kaden Elliss, NO

FINALLY, after years of pining away for him as a deep sleeper…Elliss is playing for Pete Werner and has 7.7 tackles, 1.2 sacks per game in the past three weeks…at least 1.0 sacks in each of his last 3 games. He has terrific measurables and it’s starting to show.

 

4) DE Michael Clemons, NYJ

The rookie pass rusher is starting to get more playing time and he has a sack in two of his last 3 games. I like his upside as a pass rusher. He’s a real talent with upside.

 

-------------------------------

 

OUTTRO:

Have a great holiday week and partake in too much awesome Thanksgiving food…especially those of us in non-gallbladder nation!

Happy Thanksgiving: https://youtu.be/z3G8Dpa3obU

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>