2022 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 4

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2022 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 4

 

Well, well, well…what a difference a week makes. One of the worst weeks ever tracked in FFM redraft related activity in Week 3 followed by a potential historic win-rate in Week 4 (depending on the final pieces of MNF). 

The elite FF QBs were somewhat tamed this week, as a few of the next tier QBs rose up to meet/beat them. With QB not as much of an issue/gap as it has been for some, we made some hay at all the other positions.

We got a good run from Tyreek (heavy FFM ownership across the land) on TNF to start many out on the right foot this week + Evan McPherson doing his thing. We got a nice pop from Rashaad Penny, and those who went into Jared Goff the past two weeks and used him this week were winners and many paired Josh Reynolds with him for more juiciness. Allen Lazard broke out some more. The Philly-DST did their thing. It was a very good week.

This was a huge turning point week overall for many FF teams. Suddenly your team/s don’t look so awful anymore. Funny what a win can do. 

All the FF winners this week are feeling great, nothing to do but enjoy for a day or two and then it’s worry about Week 5 time. 

The teams who lost this week, they’re not in so rosy of a mood. I’m not going to harp on it in this intro, like I might if we were coming off a 50-50 week, because it’s a low percentage of people in the ‘lost’ category after Week 4, but I will address the (1-3) or (0-4) teams out there that lost Week 4 because it’s a heavy burden/it sucks.

First, a high percentage of the low percentage of Week 4 losers had the win (Penny) on their bench. And Penny was no obvious play so you can’t get too mad. Just know you had the win on the roster you just couldn’t get to it. We learn our team as we go. Having depth is a good thing…as we go into the BYE weeks…it’s not a curse. You should be proud of a high scoring bench -- it means YOU HAD/HAVE THE PLAYERS.

(1-3) and (0-4) teams, I will always keep sharing this message…because it’s needed to stay focused…you’re a win next week away from a totally different outlook ahead.

(1-3) teams, today, are likely one whole game out of the playoffs (which are likely at 2-2). One game out of the playoffs today with like 10 or more weeks to go and at least one if not two if not three of your losses were wins sitting on the bench. You got 10+ more weeks to go to make up one game and figure out your team and the sit/starts…into the BYE weeks where your depth is going to matter a lot more. You’re fine. It’s not a great feeling or position, but you’re fine…you’re not ‘out of it’.

(0-4) teams, it feels like your entire team is terrible. Your big ticket RBs are letting you down…and maybe your ‘any ‘ol QB play’ stinks compared to Geno Smith. It feels like there is no escape. You either didn’t start pivoting to the Jared Goff, etc., opportunities and/or injury has crushed you at all the other spots…AND you probably have played a rough schedule (unluckily) AND you probably lost 1-2-3 games on the bench with the wrong sit-starts.

I make the wrong 50-50 call sit-starts all the time, and I’m a ‘professional’. It happens. It also means you have good plays, a good roster…it means you have hope going into the BYE weeks. Gotta get a win Week 5…and if you do, at (1-4) the playoffs might be at (2-3)…you’d be a game away with 9+ weeks to go. Piece of cake, as we enter the BYE week FFM launch point. Even if you end up (1-4) after Week 5, and that is 2 games out of the playoffs…two games to make up in 9 or more weeks? Bro, come on. You could make that up Week 6 by a game/cut in half and then you’re a game out with 8 or more weeks to go.

If you throw a fit and quit on your team and send me cranky emails and lose your cool…you’re probably not going to have the fortitude to keep ‘playing the game’ to get back into it -- now is the time to hustle and shuck-and-jive and to keep making moves and McGuyvering your roster week-to-week. Every player in the NFL is going to be on IR in a few weeks, so we got lot’s off maneuvering to do ahead…which is to our (FFM) advantage! It’s time to play the game!!

Regular head-to-head Fantasy is hard and filled with twists and turns, and sometimes you are playing from underneath…playing with the short stack…playing as the underdog. You gotta keep playing the game…it’s a game…not in the demeaning ‘it doesn’t matter’ type of ‘game’. It means a lot. I mean IT IS A GAME…something to be played, a puzzle to figure out, moves and countermoves. You are down right now but there is a path to wriggling out of your predicament.

Keep playing the game. What else is there to do?

To all those who won big this week…it was a week ago today you hated your entire roster. Seven days later you see a lot of glass half full on things now. Let this thing breathe week-to-week. We’re gonna get there. Just stay cool and enjoy your big win this week.

To all the Dynasty players who have built your teams under the FFM banner the past few years, and you are absolutely decimating your league every week…it’s been the most surreal (great) Dynasty year ever in our tracking -- congrats, and remember…this was a plan, it was not luck. It took time but now look. You’re a model for all the new Dynasty players who have joined the FFM ranks the past year or two.

I’m usually right about all football things…I’m just not sure when I’m going to be right, but I will be…and some of things started happening this season or this week in a huge way. And I also switch lanes fast if I see things have changed from my original beliefs/scouting. Those two sentences will take us a long way together. Congrats to those dominant Dynasty teams out there. I’m proud to have been some part of your studies and planning!

A long way to go still. Keep punching whether you’re (4-0) and (0-4)…the goal is still the same…buy low, sell high, churn and learn your roster as we go. You don’t know what key player is gonna get hurt next.

For those that got the timely and/or big win in Week 4…do take a moment to celebrate: https://youtu.be/3GwjfUFyY6M

 

 

 

--THREE THINGS--

 

 

MIN-NO

 -- (we all said in August) The new Vikings coach is so pro-offense that it’s gonna unlock Kirk Cousins (25-38 for 273 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) to go to a new level! 

Not really.

So far this season, Cousins has thrown for 6 TDs/4 INTs and has not registered a game over 280 yards passing this season. You’d be better off with Geno Smith, among others as a backup Fantasy QB.

 -- Alvin Kamara (DNP) was a surprise late scratch. He’s dealing with a rib issue…I guess. He also had his court case moved to mid-November. He looked happy as a clam on the sidelines in Europe taking pics with the fans and yukking it up pregame.

No Jameis Winston this game…then Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara take a powder. Are the overpaid, questionable character Saints players (AK and MT) going to be an ‘issue’ all season? Kamara has been an FF-bust, so far, on injury and performance.

As the Saints fade away, I question how invested Thomas, Kamara, and Landry will be this season.

 -- Latavius Murray (11-57-1, 1-8-0/1) was elevated from the practice squad for this game…he had a decent half of output, but he doesn’t look great. He’s well past his prime. He probably goes back to the practice squad once Kamara is active again.

 

CLE-ATL

 -- David Njoku (5-73-0/7) had a decent follow up game from his explosion Week 3 on TNF vs. PIT…finally. In a world where there are a bunch of contenders/pretenders for being TE1s…Njoku is back in the mix.

 -- Kyle Pitts (1-25-0/4) did not have a follow up from his Week 3 pop. Marcus Mariota just isn’t a great delivery system, and the Falcons prefer running the ball when close in a game. The Pitts dream of being generational in 2022…is slipping away.

 -- With Cordarrelle Patterson (9-38-1) not 100%, Tyler Allgeier (10-840, 1-20-0/1) got more run…but not a ton more…and then Caleb Huntley (10-56-1) came up from the practice squad and was the feature for a spell.

Allgeier has a future as an NFL lead back. Huntley is a random, solid journeyman RB.

*Cordarrelle is going on IR with his knee issue…we address the Allgeier/Huntley situation in the waivers section below.

 

BUF-BAL

 -- Gabe Davis (1-13-0/3) is under a ‘watch’, for me, to see if he’s dying off. He’s either hurt…or he’s just not very good. He has never grabbed my scouting attention in his NFL journey, but I had to FF-respect him starting with Josh Allen. I’m guessing this is an injury issue, but I’m wondering if there is a growing issue overall (because he really isn’t anything special).

I maintained this preseason, if Davis shows any weakness…talented rookie Khalil Shakir (2-23-0/2) could knife in and send Davis into a split, then to the bench. The first step of that may have started here…maybe not.

 -- Rashod Bateman’s (3-17-0/6) ill fit in this passing game/with this QB continues to trend…another game as their #1 WR with low targets/output. 2.8 catches per game for Bateman this season…is not a hot WR1.

 -- Another weak FF-game from Dawson Knox (3-40-0/6). He’s been sniffing the end zone but cannot seem to get his scores…one of the top TE TD makers of the past couple years has zero TDs in 4 games so far in 2022.

 

WSH-DAL

 -- Washington was talking all week about getting Terry McLaurin (2-15-0/6) going, so they tried to force it to him here, but nothing was working. McLaurin is a WR2-3 in this setup (QB, WR trio). Two catches on 6 targets was his output with them trying to get him going…

Curtis Samuel (4-38-0/7) is still the #1 WR here for Wentz…we need Washington to keep Wentz in as starter to keep this going. Hosting Tennessee Week 5 could get Washington back producing on offense…I mean, they just faced Philly and Dallas back-to-back, not easy for any offense.

 -- The Dallas defense has yet to allow 20 points in four straight games…but that streak will be tested the next three weeks: LAR-PHI-DET.

 -- Antonio Gibson (13-49-0, 3-14-0/3) had another ‘meh’ game. For some reason Jonathan Williams (5-48-0) was back/in and looked solid. Brian Robinson is supposed to be activated for Week 5…if BRob is healthy, then he is going to take over the backfield and the NFL trade rumors will begin on Gibson.

 

SEA-DET

 -- FINALLY, Rashaad Penny (17-151-2, 1-6-0/1) had his day!!! On about 25-40% of FFM team’s benches…because of course he was. Couldn’t have full trust, but this was the type of game I was expecting in most of his games…15+ touches and good shots a scoring a TD each week.

He is starting to separate/differentiate from Ken Walker (8-29-0, 1-0-0/1), which is important because Seattle is alive in the playoff chase, for now, so Seattle will push their best…and that should be Penny, but I don’t 100% trust Pete Carroll.

 -- As I wrote last week, Rashaad Penny isn’t the main driver/focus of the Seattle offense…Geno Smith (23-30 for 320 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 7-49-1) is. It’s working at a pretty high level…77%+ Comp. Pct. with three 2 passing TD games in 4 games so far this season.

Geno should be a #2 QB on FF teams with crappy/underperforming current #2s. I keep thinking NFL defenses will figure out he’s just play-actioning and rolling right every other throw…but they will soon and start blitzing him from that side constantly and then we’ll see if Geno has an answer.

 -- Detroit entered the game as the #2 scoring team in the NFL. A high scoring offense and also the single worst points allowed defense…and them facing a bottom 12 defense (SEA) with many top weapons out…the scene was set for a high scoring event, and that’s the case I’ve been making for Jared Goff (26-39 for 378 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT)…he’s good PLUS he’s going to be in these shootout games most weeks because of his offense-defense dynamic.

The magic games from T.J. Hockenson (8-179-2/12) and Josh Reynolds (7-81-1/8) were in the perfect storm as well, with Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark, and D’Andre Swift out…and facing Seattle.

 

LAC-HOU

 -- Josh Palmer (1-25-0/1) couldn’t follow up his solid/garbage-time-ish Week 3 pop. I don’t see any ‘it’ with Palmer in this golden opportunity with Keenan Allen out. Once Allen returns, Palmer is a WR3-4 who will have random games.

 -- Dameon Pierce (14-131-1, 6-8-0/6) is becoming the centerpiece of the Texans offense…no other Texan had a carry in the game. The Texans are leaning into this, and Pierce is growing into it fast.

 -- All this Chargers defensive talent and as the Chargers raced out to a 27-7 lead…the defense wilted and let Houston right back in the game. Cleveland Week 5 and Seattle Week 7 were supposed to be easy matchups…but suddenly they aren’t, and then the Chargers-DST isn’t as I advertised. One of the worst coached teams up and down the staff.

I have moved on from the LAC-DST the past week, and I will try and flush the rest of my holdings for better options this week. I don’t want to rely on the Chargers-DST to make a turn.

 

TEN-IND

 -- Mo Alie-Cox (6-85-2/6) had the 2 TD effort from a TE this week…last week it was Jelani Woods (1-33-0/1). Jelani made a catch and run in this game that was quasi-special from a TE…he nearly took it to the house. After the team/staff seeing him with two nice TDs last week and this terrific, simple catch and run 33 yards play…he never saw the ball again. Kylen Granson (4-62-0/4) DID get 4 targets, however. Geez, I can’t believe the Colts are (1-2-1) and suck! I cannot wait until Frank Reich is fired.

 -- How good does our preseason projection of Derrick Henry (22-114-1, 3-33-0/5) as the #1 RB in Fantasy for 2022 look? We had Henry #1…even over EVERYONE’s #1 RB for 2022, Jonathan Taylor (20-42-0, 1-1-0/3). Henry had an additional TD run ripped away from him by a stupid penalty in this game.

 Henry is running fine, and now getting more and more pass game work…8 catches the past two games!

 -- If Jonathan Taylor’s (20-42-0, 1-1-0/3) ankle injury is going to cause any lost time, the Colts would likely lean on Nyheim Hines (1-0-0, 2-3-0/2) to lead/split with Deon Jackson (0-0-0) as the short-term solution. Long term, they might push Philip Lindsay into the mix to work with Hines instead.  

It looks like JT could miss this quick turnaround game on TNF Week 5, and then be back Week 6…as the Colts season gets away from them.

NEVER.

AGAIN.

With 1st-round redraft RBs.

 

CHI-NYG

 -- I suspect the Justin Fields (11-22 for 174 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 7-52-0) defenders are about to fold and the whole mainstream is going to turn on him now. There may be another week or two of ‘but look at his sad WRs’ excuses -- but that’s not a real excuse…it’s not the problem. Fields is the problem.

 -- Because NYG won this game and moved to (3-1)…the Daniel Jones (8-13 for 71 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 6-68-2) media condemnation stays in the holster for a few more weeks. Both Fields and Jones are all but done as NFL ‘things’.

2023 offseason = D. Jones will be a free agent backup in Denver and Fields will be getting one more shot with the excuse that he needs another year with the new playbook, but with a legit solid veteran QB signed behind him…or possibly a rookie drafted mid-rounds to start a half-hearted look at replacing Fields…which will anger Fields and everything will be a mess in 2023, unless they trade him away.

 -- Darnell Mooney (4-94-0/5) finally had a game of FF-note…after three disasters prior. Hopefully you can use it to move him…I’m not sure you can trust any week or any matchup with Fields at QB, even though Mooney is his #1. Fields has gotten that bad.

 

JAX-PHI

 -- Philly gave up a defensive TD right away, then the Eagles defense got pushed around by the Jags offense for a score after that…and it was 14-0 JAX quickly, and it looked like the Eagles-DST was in trouble…but then the Philly-DST slammed the door shut and crushed the Jaguars offense from there. Another sign of just how good this Eagles defense is.

 -- In a sign of how good the Eagles O-Line is…50 carries for 210 yards and 4 rushing TDs in the rain, led by Miles Sanders (27-134-2, 2-22-0/3). It wouldn’t have mattered who was at main RB, they would’ve had this day. The Eagles are too good right now.

 -- Zay Jones out, and Jamal Agnew (4-50-2/6) has a game. He’s a scrapper, but with Kirk-Zay healthy and the team not playing in the rain…Agnew will be a lowly, sporadically targeted. He’s not breaking out…that was a 2021 thing, it’s different in 2022.

 

NYJ-PIT

 -- The Kenny Pickett (10-13 for 120 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs, 6-15-2) era is underway…for the next decade. There’s no turning back now. But the fact remains that he is a rookie stuck in a weak offense with a terrible O-Line. He is highly unlikely a QB1 threat…he’ll be a moderate QB2 at best…and a QB3 facing BUF-TB-MIA-PHI the next 4 games…that’s arguably the 4 best teams in football with 4 of the (arguable) best defenses in the league.

 -- The schedule ahead will sting the Steelers WRs and likely hurt Najee Harris (18-74-0) badly as well…his only hope being dump passes against these stout defenses, but he’s being spelled some on 3rd-downs by Jaylen Warren (3-18-0, 1-4-0/1) more and more. Sell everything Steelers.

 -- Zach Wilson (18-36 for 252 yards, 1 TD/2 INT, 2-15-0) was a loss here away from a QB controversy already. His first game back and it’s another 50% Comp. Pct. game with more turnovers than TD passes…picking up right where he left off most of 2021 -- inaccurate and not a threat to the defense.

 

ARI-CAR

 -- Rondale Moore (3-11-0/5) back…and the Greg Dortch (1-6-0/1) story comes to an end, as predicted. Fare thee well being buried in Arizona until 2024. Andy Isabella can show you around.

 -- It is getting so bad in Carolina that I think Sam Darnold replacing Baker Mayfield (22-36 for 197 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) is on the table…because the Panthers are desperate, and it will begin the era of Baker being an NFL backup for a few years before he retires early. As long as he can make $5-8M as a backup, he’ll take their money to hold a clipboard.

 -- Christian McCaffrey (8-27-0, 9-81-1/9) looked fine for all his nagging issues. This week when he’s not practicing, we all won’t sweat it like CMC owners did last week with doom and gloom reports.

 

NE-GB

 -- Yes, Allen Lazard (6-116-0/8) is the #1 WR for Green Bay. Can we all agree on that now? Can we take a breath and enjoy that THIS ONE (middle round redraft WR) paid-off? No, he’s not Rodgers-to-Davante level #1 WR…but he is the go-to and it’s going to improve each week.

 -- Rookie Bailey Zappe (10-15 for 99 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) became the New England starter a lot sooner than I expected…

He accounted for himself well enough. He was restricted and didn’t flash any ‘it’ factor. He’s just a kinda competent backup QB who may have to start the next 1-2 weeks. Maybe he’ll get more comfortable as he goes. He has talent. He’s no joke, but it may be a bit too soon for him right now.

 -- Hard game to judge anything for NE among the WRs, but my new fave DeVante Parker (2-24-1/2) caught Zappe’s lone TD. I have interest in Parker with Mac Jones…or a more comfortable Zappe after a week as the #1 at practice for a Week 5 start (if).

 

DEN-LV

 -- Better game for Russell Wilson (17-25 for 237 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) but still things didn’t look great. Their offense is so bad (game plan/coached), and Russ is just a mediocre/good QB anymore. Denver is in big trouble for weeks and a few years to come.

 -- Javonte Williams (10-28-0, 1-0-0/1) went down hurt in this game, tried to walk off but ultimately got carted off in this game. As I type this, I don’t know the severity, but the fear is he may be 4-8 weeks of a problem. If so, that leaves Mr. Fumbles, Melvin Gordon (3-8-0, 0-0-0/1) or underrated Mike Boone (3-20-0, 1-9-0/3). An underrated Devine Ozigbo will get called up from the practice squad to be the #3 RB.

As bad as Gordon has played, it’s opened the door for Boone…and to a lesser degree Ozigbo to take over if/when Gordon falters. Which all sounds great, but you know Gordon will get the main role and long leash.

*Midday Monday, we found out that Javonte tore his ACL. We’ll address the waivers aspect in the waivers sections (below).

 -- Mack Hollins (3-33-0/5) didn’t have a great output follow up here but note he did catch another sweet TD pass but upon the leaping catch he came down about an inch out of bounds, reviewed, and denied. 4-50-1 was there for the taking, but it got taken from us.

 

KC-TB

 -- It was good call for the ‘buy low’ on Tom Brady (39-52 for 385 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) last week. As you saw Sunday night, he’s fine. Even better, he has ATL-PIT-CAR-BAL the next 4 games.

 -- I had a private client in a tight FF-game with one player left to go for each team…our Tom Brady vs. their Patrick Mahomes (23-37 for 249 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT). I wasn’t checking the FF-game score the 1st-half, but it felt like it was already doomed from watching Mahomes seemingly playing like a video game. Then I checked the score of the FF game into the 3rd-quarter and it was a lot closer than I expected…and then Brady went on to win it with better numbers than Mahomes.

You watched the game, right? Would you have guessed Mahomes for 249 yards passing and just 62.2% Comp. Pct.? Yes, he had the 3 TDs…but one of them was set up by an opening game fumble and quick TD score. After that, like 58 minutes of the game left and Mahomes had 2 TDs and 240 yards passing after the opening gift?

I’m telling you, there is a problem with this offense. A lot of tight window/terrific catches on short passes early on in that game for KC.

 -- Chris Godwin (7-59-0/10) is back, with Mike Evans (8-103-2/10) back…and some Julio Jones (1-7-0/2) back…it means I’m done with Russell Gage (2-24-0/4). I didn’t expect Godwin to be so ‘back’ for this game, but he was…and Gage looks like he is not 100% still and I got better things to mess with then messing with Gage trying to be relevant with Evans-Godwin-Julio all active.

 

 

  ===== FIVE PLAYERS =====

 

*** FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST***

*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.

**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..

***IF FAAB% mentioned at any time below is based on a 16-20 man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, and lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.

 

*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.

 

 

1) RB Brian Robinson, WSH (Grade: B)

Robinson will be the lead RB in Washington soon…that might be mediocre, or it might be in a three-way split or an eventual full breakout for BRob (sketchy on this team/O-Line), but the main reason I grade this move highly is -- he will be a media focus, he’ll be made out to be a god…your best bet might be to sell him hot before he even takes an NFL snap because his hype could exceed any reality.  

 

2) RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Grade: B)

With all the RB injuries happening and opportunities created for the underneath guy…I like this one the best because I think Allgeier is the most talented RB on this list of waiver RBs, but is also the one with a straight shot to a main/lead role.

He might split a little at first, but I think for a ‘still in it’ ATL team, Allgeier is a great answer to carry out the main duties for at least the next 4 weeks and not be bumped by other RBs on the roster.

Will Caleb Huntley nose in there? Maybe, but I’d bet on Allgeier to win the day and maybe the rest of the season and the rest of the time with Arthur Smith, and after, for years ahead…but I don’t want to bet big on Arthur Smith doing anything smart either.

 

3) RB Mike Boone, DEN (Grade: B-/C+)

With Javonte Williams out for the season, then Boone will run with Melvin Gordon…and now that people are mocking Gordon for fumbles, it makes it seem like Boone is going to be the main man in Denver. Umm, Javonte wasn’t even the main man in Denver…nor were his numbers all that great. You expect Boone, who is good, to get a run as some lead guy where Javonte couldn’t?

And if you think Denver is done with Melvin Gordon due to fumbles, you are sadly mistaken. Until he is cut from the team, he will always be wedged into the rotation.

So, you hate Rashaad Penny…but Mike Boone is money and the one you’re going to spend all your FAAB money on?

If I knew Boone was definitely the main starter, it would be one thing…but Gordon will start out as the guy + I’m sure Denver will chase a veteran name and elevate

 

4) QB Jared Goff, DET (Grade: B/C)

If you need a 2nd (or 1st) QB boost…I’ve been trying to push this to everyone for two+ weeks now. I think most have listened/acted, but universally Goff is still under 50% owned.

Goff is good…and is in a perfect place for high volume passing due to a bad defense, leading to shoot outs and with a good O-Line to protect his million throws.

 

5) RB Raheem Mostert (Grade: C+)

The clear starting RB for a very good Miami offense/team…it’s worth something, until he gets hurt.

 

 

6) QB Geno Smith, SEA (Grade: C/D)

One of the best QBs in the NFL on the young season. Shocking, but true. I think he’ll get figured out and fade…but it’s working now, kind of in a Goff way…lesser-Goff way, bad defense in deficits leading to shootouts but a so-so O-Line.

 

7) TE Robert Tonyan, GB (Grade C-/D+)

Not many TE options to try and find life with off waivers, and we have felt Tonyan is getting towards a top 8-10 TE1 possibility ahead. Low targets Week 4 but did cash in on a TD.

 

8) WR Isaiah McKenzie (Grade: D+)

He is heating up, but more importantly he’s the slot facing the Steelers this week and that’s been money typically, so go with it…then trade it off, perhaps, after. But McKenzie is moving up the pecking order as Gabe Davis falls down it.

Also, Jamison Crowder has broken his foot -- so, the path keeps getting clearer for McKenzie.

 

9) WR DeVante Parker, NE (Grade: D+)   

Had a solid TD in the weird NE week with Mac-Hoyer gone and the rookie Zappe forced to play. I’m very interested in this when Mac is back, but unsure what impact Jakobi will have when he returns.

 

10) Mack Hollins, LV (Grade: D+)

Weak follow up game Week 4 from his terrific Week 3…but he had some chances in Week 4, and had another sweet TD catch but was an inch out of bounds from booking it. There’s something here because Hollins is such a presence on the field…but it has limited upside because of Davante there.

…but if Davante ever got hurt…

 

*IF Tua hits waivers this week, after the regular run, where he’s dropped…depending on my situation, and especially where I have Tyreek…I’m interested in adding Tua if I can/if it makes sense…knowing the risk with the head trauma issue.

 

-----------------------------------------------

 

***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***

  

1) QB Kenny Pickett, PIT

Will be good someday, but not today…not with those surroundings, not with the next 4 weeks of lethal schedule.

 

2) WR Jamal Agnew, JAX

Two TDs in Week 4, getting more work with Zay Jones out…when Zay returns, Agnew goes back to a WR3-4.

 

3) TE Mo-Alie Cox, IND

Two TDs Week 4…he’s a TE2 with hopes of a TD any given week, but low targeting and Jelani approaching in his rear-view mirror.

  

4) RB Caleb Huntley, ATL

He’s not as good as Tyler Allgeier, so he will disappear soon…but had a moment in Week 4.

 

5) QB Daniel Jones, NYG

Two rushing TDs…because he can’t pass for them. Hurt himself too. There is no upside here.

 

------------------------------

 

***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*

 

1) WR Curtis Samuel, WSH

Washington had two very tough opponents in the pass game the past two weeks (PHI and DAL)…and CSam was still the highest targeted WR in that span. He, nor anyone on the team, had a great FF output the past two weeks. The schedule ahead eases up the next two weeks to help the QB and WRs.

Because no one believes in CSam, because he’s not a magical/hot rookie…his value continues to fall to WR3 range because no one believes in him still. Please exchange some inflated WR3/RB2.5 for Samuel…add him to your WR group, you’ll be happy that you did. People are starting to panic on him…don’t overpay…only WE believe, no matter what THEY say to you…they don’t believe. Expose it.

 

2) WR Keenan Allen, LAC

A WR1 with Justin Herbert, his only real reliable WR. A healthy Allen walks back in to 6-7-8+ catches a game. 

 

3) WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA

Down week on TNF. Tua up in the air (out Week 4)…do you have Tyreek? Would it be wise to run these guys/WRs together AND have them as kinda handcuffs of each other?

Last two games, just 3.0 rec. on 5.5 targets per game…the window may be open to make a daring trade to pair Waddle and Tyreek…then it’s time to get Tua to complete the triad once we know he doesn’t have to retire or anything.

 

4) WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN

Three non-elite games in a row…if you want in, the current owner is likely starting to panic…willing to talk about it. He’s still gonna cost you, but maybe not as much as 3 to 6 weeks ago.

 

5) QB Jalen Hurts, PHI

Hey, he had a non-MVP stat tally Week 4...so, always a good time to wonder/dream/inquire…if desired. I put him on here because most of his current owners love him but are suspicious of him keeping this pace up. I’m not suggesting it’s cheap, but the window may have opened coming off a non-killer/crazy output game. Lamar Jackson, you can’t buy low…everyone loves him. Hurts…you might have the things to get it done from an owner who may have lost two in a row and had this so-so Hurts week and doesn’t really believe in Hurts as a top tier FF QB. He may be the single best QB for 4pts pass TD leagues…a guy who can turn things around if you’re off to a slow start.

 

-------------------------

 

***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as a neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*

  

1) WR Diontae Johnson, PIT

Facing BUF-TB-MIA-PHI the next 4 games…it’s a death row for Pickett, and for Diontae. Diontae was near top of this list last week going into the NYJ/Sauce game (which was the predicted dud for DJ), now he’s at the top of this list this week.

 

2) WR Mike Williams, LAC

Williams had another nice game…to allow you to sell high, if you desire. Williams is already erratic enough…but when Keenan Allen returns, it’s even more problematic for Big Mike to be FF-consistent. Not a must-sell, but a sell-high if you want.

 

3) RB Antonio Gibson, WSH

Brian Robinson is coming to take Gibson’s job…and FF-value…as we’ve said for weeks. It may begin Monday.

 

4) RB Rashaad Penny, SEA

FINALLY, we got our big game from him. Can he follow up? I’m not sure. I know that Penny has the talent for it, but my concern is whether the coach pushes it or not…and in 4 weeks, he has gotten a push…once…against a really bad defense.

I’m not against trying to sell this Week 4 pop hot…selling to those who are always paranoid about their RB group, they’d love the guy who did the good thing the prior week.

I am NOT DUMPING HIM…I am only willing to sell hot…like he’s an RB1.5 getting ready to be an RB1 level heat.

 

5) WR Darnell Mooney, CHI

Had a decent Week 4…a chance to sell him off for something you like better, just to get away from him and the Fields-based nightmare being delivered to him.

 

------------------------------

 

***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***

*Total flier/lowly owned or not-owned players

 

 

1a) RB Rachaad White, TB

Sunday night was a big jump for White as a real/desired part of the passing game, regardless of Fournette active or not. But if Fournette goes down, it’s RB1 in PPR time for White.

 

1b) RB Isiah Pacheco, KC

A big step taken Sunday night in getting Pacheco in position to start being the lead ballcarrier in a split with CEH. If/when CEH goes down…it’s on.

 

3) WR Skyy Moore, KC

Played a lot more snaps this week and caught 2 passes for 31 yards on 4 targets…he was a ghost in the 1st-half, then suddenly in-and-out of the 2nd-half where he looked good once again. More targets than Hardman-Watson combined. One target behind MVS.

One week it will just ‘happen’ and Skyy will be a sweet PPR worker on his way to being Mahomes’ #2 look after Kelce. Week 4 was the next step.

 

4) QB Carson Wentz, WSH

Just faced PHI and DAL and struggled to score…struggled to have time to throw both games. Easier times with TEN and at CHI the next two weeks.

 

5) TE Jelani Woods, IND

Man does he look good. Mo-Alie is in his way, maybe forever this season…but I think the Colts offense could really change course if they gave into Jelani as a receiving threat. He only played 15 snaps this week…which is a few more than last week. Reich will not give into this easily…he’s too smart for that, just look at the great job he’s done coaching this team this year and last.

 

6) RB Deon Jackson, IND

If JT is down, it will be a Hines lead-split with Deon Jackson…not with Philip Lindsay, I suspect.

 

7) RB Jaylen Warren, PIT

The clear and obvious Najee handcuff.

 

8) WR Khalil Shakir, BUF

Crowder breaks his foot…Gabe Davis is winding down…Shakir could be Josh Allen’s Amon-Ra St. Brown

 

9) WR Trestan Ebner, CHI

The handcuff to K. Herbert while D. Montgomery is down.

 

10) RB Devine Ozigbo, DEN

If Javonte is out for a long term, Ozigbo will be elevated…and then if Melvin Gordon fumbles his role away, we got the Boone-Ozigbo lightning and thunder duo.

 

---------------------------------

 

 -- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --

  

1) TE Noah Fant, DEN

His one catch Week 4 did get him a TD…but 1 catch/1 target…he’s fallen to the 3rd-most important TE on the roster. He’s a talent, but not for Seattle

  

2) WR Ashton Dulin, IND

I was wondering if his decent showings Week 2-3 might get him a run ahead of Parris Campbell, but it has not. Moving on.

 

3) TE Evan Engram, JAX

This isn’t working with any consistency…I can’t do this with Engram anymore.

 

4) WR Greg Dortch, ARI

With Rondale Moore back in Week 4, Dortch went from a WR2 in FF for three weeks…to one catch on one target. He’s dead with Rondale back, and even deader when A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins return. It was a nice run but now it’s over.

 

5) None

 

--------------------------------

 

***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS***--

 

1) Jaguars-DST

A hot ‘get’ this week…dropped/not picked up last week due to facing Philly Week 4, which was wise but now clouds how emerging/hot they were prior to Week 4.

You could run this defense the next 5 games…if they’re as good as the Week’s 2-3 games suggest (I don’t fault them for the no-so-great Philly game…but they actually weren’t bad against them).

Week 5 = host Houston

Week 6 = at Indy

Week 7 = hosting NYG

Week 8 = Denver in Europe

Week 9 = hosting Las Vegas

 

2) Dolphins-DST

A salty unit flying below the radar…and they get the Jets Week 5. Possibly useful Week 6 hosting Minnesota. Works well Week 7 hosting the rookie Pickett Week 7.

Week 8 at DET is not good, but then Week 9 at CHI is a gem. Week 10 hosting CLE works OK too.

 

3) Vikings-DST

Facing the Bears Week 5, at Minnesota…that’s a good opportunity for a week. Miami Week 6 is a no-go and then a Week 7 bye.

 

-------------------

 

 -- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --

 

1) LB Josey Jewell, DEN

14 tackles in Week 4, 9 tackles his first game back from injury Week 3. Jewell also has 3 TFLs in his first 2 games of 2022.

 

2) CB Roger McCreary, TEN

Continues his strong tackle pace…7 tackle this week, 9.3 tackles per game the past three games…which is stunning for a CB.

 

3) LB Tae Crowder, NYG

He finally had that game Ross Jacobs was hoping for…11 tackles, 1 sacks, 2 QB hits. He is the man in the middle for an NYG team that is likely to be on defense a lot ahead.

 

4) DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, LAC

Back-to-back games with 2.0 TFLs in each game. He’s a really good DT and starting to spike up some numbers for IDP.

 

5) OLB Boye Mafe, SEA

The rookie is playing a little more each week and starting to make some plays in the backfield. I thought he was one of the best pass rushers I scouted pre-Draft 2022. A season high 6 tackles and 32 snaps  Week 4.

  

 

Outtro…

If you were one of the unfortunate few who lost this past week, you gotta get the win this week.

Having trouble getting the right sit-starts to get the wins? There’s always this method (from a very underrated movie from decades ago): https://youtu.be/VosZzVlqxTg

NO Video Q&A tonight (no TNF game)
The Dual DST Theory for 2021…

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2022 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 4

Date:
October 3, 2022

 

2022 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 4

 

Well, well, well…what a difference a week makes. One of the worst weeks ever tracked in FFM redraft related activity in Week 3 followed by a potential historic win-rate in Week 4 (depending on the final pieces of MNF). 

The elite FF QBs were somewhat tamed this week, as a few of the next tier QBs rose up to meet/beat them. With QB not as much of an issue/gap as it has been for some, we made some hay at all the other positions.

We got a good run from Tyreek (heavy FFM ownership across the land) on TNF to start many out on the right foot this week + Evan McPherson doing his thing. We got a nice pop from Rashaad Penny, and those who went into Jared Goff the past two weeks and used him this week were winners and many paired Josh Reynolds with him for more juiciness. Allen Lazard broke out some more. The Philly-DST did their thing. It was a very good week.

This was a huge turning point week overall for many FF teams. Suddenly your team/s don’t look so awful anymore. Funny what a win can do. 

All the FF winners this week are feeling great, nothing to do but enjoy for a day or two and then it’s worry about Week 5 time. 

The teams who lost this week, they’re not in so rosy of a mood. I’m not going to harp on it in this intro, like I might if we were coming off a 50-50 week, because it’s a low percentage of people in the ‘lost’ category after Week 4, but I will address the (1-3) or (0-4) teams out there that lost Week 4 because it’s a heavy burden/it sucks.

First, a high percentage of the low percentage of Week 4 losers had the win (Penny) on their bench. And Penny was no obvious play so you can’t get too mad. Just know you had the win on the roster you just couldn’t get to it. We learn our team as we go. Having depth is a good thing…as we go into the BYE weeks…it’s not a curse. You should be proud of a high scoring bench -- it means YOU HAD/HAVE THE PLAYERS.

(1-3) and (0-4) teams, I will always keep sharing this message…because it’s needed to stay focused…you’re a win next week away from a totally different outlook ahead.

(1-3) teams, today, are likely one whole game out of the playoffs (which are likely at 2-2). One game out of the playoffs today with like 10 or more weeks to go and at least one if not two if not three of your losses were wins sitting on the bench. You got 10+ more weeks to go to make up one game and figure out your team and the sit/starts…into the BYE weeks where your depth is going to matter a lot more. You’re fine. It’s not a great feeling or position, but you’re fine…you’re not ‘out of it’.

(0-4) teams, it feels like your entire team is terrible. Your big ticket RBs are letting you down…and maybe your ‘any ‘ol QB play’ stinks compared to Geno Smith. It feels like there is no escape. You either didn’t start pivoting to the Jared Goff, etc., opportunities and/or injury has crushed you at all the other spots…AND you probably have played a rough schedule (unluckily) AND you probably lost 1-2-3 games on the bench with the wrong sit-starts.

I make the wrong 50-50 call sit-starts all the time, and I’m a ‘professional’. It happens. It also means you have good plays, a good roster…it means you have hope going into the BYE weeks. Gotta get a win Week 5…and if you do, at (1-4) the playoffs might be at (2-3)…you’d be a game away with 9+ weeks to go. Piece of cake, as we enter the BYE week FFM launch point. Even if you end up (1-4) after Week 5, and that is 2 games out of the playoffs…two games to make up in 9 or more weeks? Bro, come on. You could make that up Week 6 by a game/cut in half and then you’re a game out with 8 or more weeks to go.

If you throw a fit and quit on your team and send me cranky emails and lose your cool…you’re probably not going to have the fortitude to keep ‘playing the game’ to get back into it -- now is the time to hustle and shuck-and-jive and to keep making moves and McGuyvering your roster week-to-week. Every player in the NFL is going to be on IR in a few weeks, so we got lot’s off maneuvering to do ahead…which is to our (FFM) advantage! It’s time to play the game!!

Regular head-to-head Fantasy is hard and filled with twists and turns, and sometimes you are playing from underneath…playing with the short stack…playing as the underdog. You gotta keep playing the game…it’s a game…not in the demeaning ‘it doesn’t matter’ type of ‘game’. It means a lot. I mean IT IS A GAME…something to be played, a puzzle to figure out, moves and countermoves. You are down right now but there is a path to wriggling out of your predicament.

Keep playing the game. What else is there to do?

To all those who won big this week…it was a week ago today you hated your entire roster. Seven days later you see a lot of glass half full on things now. Let this thing breathe week-to-week. We’re gonna get there. Just stay cool and enjoy your big win this week.

To all the Dynasty players who have built your teams under the FFM banner the past few years, and you are absolutely decimating your league every week…it’s been the most surreal (great) Dynasty year ever in our tracking -- congrats, and remember…this was a plan, it was not luck. It took time but now look. You’re a model for all the new Dynasty players who have joined the FFM ranks the past year or two.

I’m usually right about all football things…I’m just not sure when I’m going to be right, but I will be…and some of things started happening this season or this week in a huge way. And I also switch lanes fast if I see things have changed from my original beliefs/scouting. Those two sentences will take us a long way together. Congrats to those dominant Dynasty teams out there. I’m proud to have been some part of your studies and planning!

A long way to go still. Keep punching whether you’re (4-0) and (0-4)…the goal is still the same…buy low, sell high, churn and learn your roster as we go. You don’t know what key player is gonna get hurt next.

For those that got the timely and/or big win in Week 4…do take a moment to celebrate: https://youtu.be/3GwjfUFyY6M

 

 

 

--THREE THINGS--

 

 

MIN-NO

 -- (we all said in August) The new Vikings coach is so pro-offense that it’s gonna unlock Kirk Cousins (25-38 for 273 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) to go to a new level! 

Not really.

So far this season, Cousins has thrown for 6 TDs/4 INTs and has not registered a game over 280 yards passing this season. You’d be better off with Geno Smith, among others as a backup Fantasy QB.

 -- Alvin Kamara (DNP) was a surprise late scratch. He’s dealing with a rib issue…I guess. He also had his court case moved to mid-November. He looked happy as a clam on the sidelines in Europe taking pics with the fans and yukking it up pregame.

No Jameis Winston this game…then Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara take a powder. Are the overpaid, questionable character Saints players (AK and MT) going to be an ‘issue’ all season? Kamara has been an FF-bust, so far, on injury and performance.

As the Saints fade away, I question how invested Thomas, Kamara, and Landry will be this season.

 -- Latavius Murray (11-57-1, 1-8-0/1) was elevated from the practice squad for this game…he had a decent half of output, but he doesn’t look great. He’s well past his prime. He probably goes back to the practice squad once Kamara is active again.

 

CLE-ATL

 -- David Njoku (5-73-0/7) had a decent follow up game from his explosion Week 3 on TNF vs. PIT…finally. In a world where there are a bunch of contenders/pretenders for being TE1s…Njoku is back in the mix.

 -- Kyle Pitts (1-25-0/4) did not have a follow up from his Week 3 pop. Marcus Mariota just isn’t a great delivery system, and the Falcons prefer running the ball when close in a game. The Pitts dream of being generational in 2022…is slipping away.

 -- With Cordarrelle Patterson (9-38-1) not 100%, Tyler Allgeier (10-840, 1-20-0/1) got more run…but not a ton more…and then Caleb Huntley (10-56-1) came up from the practice squad and was the feature for a spell.

Allgeier has a future as an NFL lead back. Huntley is a random, solid journeyman RB.

*Cordarrelle is going on IR with his knee issue…we address the Allgeier/Huntley situation in the waivers section below.

 

BUF-BAL

 -- Gabe Davis (1-13-0/3) is under a ‘watch’, for me, to see if he’s dying off. He’s either hurt…or he’s just not very good. He has never grabbed my scouting attention in his NFL journey, but I had to FF-respect him starting with Josh Allen. I’m guessing this is an injury issue, but I’m wondering if there is a growing issue overall (because he really isn’t anything special).

I maintained this preseason, if Davis shows any weakness…talented rookie Khalil Shakir (2-23-0/2) could knife in and send Davis into a split, then to the bench. The first step of that may have started here…maybe not.

 -- Rashod Bateman’s (3-17-0/6) ill fit in this passing game/with this QB continues to trend…another game as their #1 WR with low targets/output. 2.8 catches per game for Bateman this season…is not a hot WR1.

 -- Another weak FF-game from Dawson Knox (3-40-0/6). He’s been sniffing the end zone but cannot seem to get his scores…one of the top TE TD makers of the past couple years has zero TDs in 4 games so far in 2022.

 

WSH-DAL

 -- Washington was talking all week about getting Terry McLaurin (2-15-0/6) going, so they tried to force it to him here, but nothing was working. McLaurin is a WR2-3 in this setup (QB, WR trio). Two catches on 6 targets was his output with them trying to get him going…

Curtis Samuel (4-38-0/7) is still the #1 WR here for Wentz…we need Washington to keep Wentz in as starter to keep this going. Hosting Tennessee Week 5 could get Washington back producing on offense…I mean, they just faced Philly and Dallas back-to-back, not easy for any offense.

 -- The Dallas defense has yet to allow 20 points in four straight games…but that streak will be tested the next three weeks: LAR-PHI-DET.

 -- Antonio Gibson (13-49-0, 3-14-0/3) had another ‘meh’ game. For some reason Jonathan Williams (5-48-0) was back/in and looked solid. Brian Robinson is supposed to be activated for Week 5…if BRob is healthy, then he is going to take over the backfield and the NFL trade rumors will begin on Gibson.

 

SEA-DET

 -- FINALLY, Rashaad Penny (17-151-2, 1-6-0/1) had his day!!! On about 25-40% of FFM team’s benches…because of course he was. Couldn’t have full trust, but this was the type of game I was expecting in most of his games…15+ touches and good shots a scoring a TD each week.

He is starting to separate/differentiate from Ken Walker (8-29-0, 1-0-0/1), which is important because Seattle is alive in the playoff chase, for now, so Seattle will push their best…and that should be Penny, but I don’t 100% trust Pete Carroll.

 -- As I wrote last week, Rashaad Penny isn’t the main driver/focus of the Seattle offense…Geno Smith (23-30 for 320 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 7-49-1) is. It’s working at a pretty high level…77%+ Comp. Pct. with three 2 passing TD games in 4 games so far this season.

Geno should be a #2 QB on FF teams with crappy/underperforming current #2s. I keep thinking NFL defenses will figure out he’s just play-actioning and rolling right every other throw…but they will soon and start blitzing him from that side constantly and then we’ll see if Geno has an answer.

 -- Detroit entered the game as the #2 scoring team in the NFL. A high scoring offense and also the single worst points allowed defense…and them facing a bottom 12 defense (SEA) with many top weapons out…the scene was set for a high scoring event, and that’s the case I’ve been making for Jared Goff (26-39 for 378 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT)…he’s good PLUS he’s going to be in these shootout games most weeks because of his offense-defense dynamic.

The magic games from T.J. Hockenson (8-179-2/12) and Josh Reynolds (7-81-1/8) were in the perfect storm as well, with Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark, and D’Andre Swift out…and facing Seattle.

 

LAC-HOU

 -- Josh Palmer (1-25-0/1) couldn’t follow up his solid/garbage-time-ish Week 3 pop. I don’t see any ‘it’ with Palmer in this golden opportunity with Keenan Allen out. Once Allen returns, Palmer is a WR3-4 who will have random games.

 -- Dameon Pierce (14-131-1, 6-8-0/6) is becoming the centerpiece of the Texans offense…no other Texan had a carry in the game. The Texans are leaning into this, and Pierce is growing into it fast.

 -- All this Chargers defensive talent and as the Chargers raced out to a 27-7 lead…the defense wilted and let Houston right back in the game. Cleveland Week 5 and Seattle Week 7 were supposed to be easy matchups…but suddenly they aren’t, and then the Chargers-DST isn’t as I advertised. One of the worst coached teams up and down the staff.

I have moved on from the LAC-DST the past week, and I will try and flush the rest of my holdings for better options this week. I don’t want to rely on the Chargers-DST to make a turn.

 

TEN-IND

 -- Mo Alie-Cox (6-85-2/6) had the 2 TD effort from a TE this week…last week it was Jelani Woods (1-33-0/1). Jelani made a catch and run in this game that was quasi-special from a TE…he nearly took it to the house. After the team/staff seeing him with two nice TDs last week and this terrific, simple catch and run 33 yards play…he never saw the ball again. Kylen Granson (4-62-0/4) DID get 4 targets, however. Geez, I can’t believe the Colts are (1-2-1) and suck! I cannot wait until Frank Reich is fired.

 -- How good does our preseason projection of Derrick Henry (22-114-1, 3-33-0/5) as the #1 RB in Fantasy for 2022 look? We had Henry #1…even over EVERYONE’s #1 RB for 2022, Jonathan Taylor (20-42-0, 1-1-0/3). Henry had an additional TD run ripped away from him by a stupid penalty in this game.

 Henry is running fine, and now getting more and more pass game work…8 catches the past two games!

 -- If Jonathan Taylor’s (20-42-0, 1-1-0/3) ankle injury is going to cause any lost time, the Colts would likely lean on Nyheim Hines (1-0-0, 2-3-0/2) to lead/split with Deon Jackson (0-0-0) as the short-term solution. Long term, they might push Philip Lindsay into the mix to work with Hines instead.  

It looks like JT could miss this quick turnaround game on TNF Week 5, and then be back Week 6…as the Colts season gets away from them.

NEVER.

AGAIN.

With 1st-round redraft RBs.

 

CHI-NYG

 -- I suspect the Justin Fields (11-22 for 174 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 7-52-0) defenders are about to fold and the whole mainstream is going to turn on him now. There may be another week or two of ‘but look at his sad WRs’ excuses -- but that’s not a real excuse…it’s not the problem. Fields is the problem.

 -- Because NYG won this game and moved to (3-1)…the Daniel Jones (8-13 for 71 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 6-68-2) media condemnation stays in the holster for a few more weeks. Both Fields and Jones are all but done as NFL ‘things’.

2023 offseason = D. Jones will be a free agent backup in Denver and Fields will be getting one more shot with the excuse that he needs another year with the new playbook, but with a legit solid veteran QB signed behind him…or possibly a rookie drafted mid-rounds to start a half-hearted look at replacing Fields…which will anger Fields and everything will be a mess in 2023, unless they trade him away.

 -- Darnell Mooney (4-94-0/5) finally had a game of FF-note…after three disasters prior. Hopefully you can use it to move him…I’m not sure you can trust any week or any matchup with Fields at QB, even though Mooney is his #1. Fields has gotten that bad.

 

JAX-PHI

 -- Philly gave up a defensive TD right away, then the Eagles defense got pushed around by the Jags offense for a score after that…and it was 14-0 JAX quickly, and it looked like the Eagles-DST was in trouble…but then the Philly-DST slammed the door shut and crushed the Jaguars offense from there. Another sign of just how good this Eagles defense is.

 -- In a sign of how good the Eagles O-Line is…50 carries for 210 yards and 4 rushing TDs in the rain, led by Miles Sanders (27-134-2, 2-22-0/3). It wouldn’t have mattered who was at main RB, they would’ve had this day. The Eagles are too good right now.

 -- Zay Jones out, and Jamal Agnew (4-50-2/6) has a game. He’s a scrapper, but with Kirk-Zay healthy and the team not playing in the rain…Agnew will be a lowly, sporadically targeted. He’s not breaking out…that was a 2021 thing, it’s different in 2022.

 

NYJ-PIT

 -- The Kenny Pickett (10-13 for 120 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs, 6-15-2) era is underway…for the next decade. There’s no turning back now. But the fact remains that he is a rookie stuck in a weak offense with a terrible O-Line. He is highly unlikely a QB1 threat…he’ll be a moderate QB2 at best…and a QB3 facing BUF-TB-MIA-PHI the next 4 games…that’s arguably the 4 best teams in football with 4 of the (arguable) best defenses in the league.

 -- The schedule ahead will sting the Steelers WRs and likely hurt Najee Harris (18-74-0) badly as well…his only hope being dump passes against these stout defenses, but he’s being spelled some on 3rd-downs by Jaylen Warren (3-18-0, 1-4-0/1) more and more. Sell everything Steelers.

 -- Zach Wilson (18-36 for 252 yards, 1 TD/2 INT, 2-15-0) was a loss here away from a QB controversy already. His first game back and it’s another 50% Comp. Pct. game with more turnovers than TD passes…picking up right where he left off most of 2021 -- inaccurate and not a threat to the defense.

 

ARI-CAR

 -- Rondale Moore (3-11-0/5) back…and the Greg Dortch (1-6-0/1) story comes to an end, as predicted. Fare thee well being buried in Arizona until 2024. Andy Isabella can show you around.

 -- It is getting so bad in Carolina that I think Sam Darnold replacing Baker Mayfield (22-36 for 197 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) is on the table…because the Panthers are desperate, and it will begin the era of Baker being an NFL backup for a few years before he retires early. As long as he can make $5-8M as a backup, he’ll take their money to hold a clipboard.

 -- Christian McCaffrey (8-27-0, 9-81-1/9) looked fine for all his nagging issues. This week when he’s not practicing, we all won’t sweat it like CMC owners did last week with doom and gloom reports.

 

NE-GB

 -- Yes, Allen Lazard (6-116-0/8) is the #1 WR for Green Bay. Can we all agree on that now? Can we take a breath and enjoy that THIS ONE (middle round redraft WR) paid-off? No, he’s not Rodgers-to-Davante level #1 WR…but he is the go-to and it’s going to improve each week.

 -- Rookie Bailey Zappe (10-15 for 99 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) became the New England starter a lot sooner than I expected…

He accounted for himself well enough. He was restricted and didn’t flash any ‘it’ factor. He’s just a kinda competent backup QB who may have to start the next 1-2 weeks. Maybe he’ll get more comfortable as he goes. He has talent. He’s no joke, but it may be a bit too soon for him right now.

 -- Hard game to judge anything for NE among the WRs, but my new fave DeVante Parker (2-24-1/2) caught Zappe’s lone TD. I have interest in Parker with Mac Jones…or a more comfortable Zappe after a week as the #1 at practice for a Week 5 start (if).

 

DEN-LV

 -- Better game for Russell Wilson (17-25 for 237 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) but still things didn’t look great. Their offense is so bad (game plan/coached), and Russ is just a mediocre/good QB anymore. Denver is in big trouble for weeks and a few years to come.

 -- Javonte Williams (10-28-0, 1-0-0/1) went down hurt in this game, tried to walk off but ultimately got carted off in this game. As I type this, I don’t know the severity, but the fear is he may be 4-8 weeks of a problem. If so, that leaves Mr. Fumbles, Melvin Gordon (3-8-0, 0-0-0/1) or underrated Mike Boone (3-20-0, 1-9-0/3). An underrated Devine Ozigbo will get called up from the practice squad to be the #3 RB.

As bad as Gordon has played, it’s opened the door for Boone…and to a lesser degree Ozigbo to take over if/when Gordon falters. Which all sounds great, but you know Gordon will get the main role and long leash.

*Midday Monday, we found out that Javonte tore his ACL. We’ll address the waivers aspect in the waivers sections (below).

 -- Mack Hollins (3-33-0/5) didn’t have a great output follow up here but note he did catch another sweet TD pass but upon the leaping catch he came down about an inch out of bounds, reviewed, and denied. 4-50-1 was there for the taking, but it got taken from us.

 

KC-TB

 -- It was good call for the ‘buy low’ on Tom Brady (39-52 for 385 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) last week. As you saw Sunday night, he’s fine. Even better, he has ATL-PIT-CAR-BAL the next 4 games.

 -- I had a private client in a tight FF-game with one player left to go for each team…our Tom Brady vs. their Patrick Mahomes (23-37 for 249 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT). I wasn’t checking the FF-game score the 1st-half, but it felt like it was already doomed from watching Mahomes seemingly playing like a video game. Then I checked the score of the FF game into the 3rd-quarter and it was a lot closer than I expected…and then Brady went on to win it with better numbers than Mahomes.

You watched the game, right? Would you have guessed Mahomes for 249 yards passing and just 62.2% Comp. Pct.? Yes, he had the 3 TDs…but one of them was set up by an opening game fumble and quick TD score. After that, like 58 minutes of the game left and Mahomes had 2 TDs and 240 yards passing after the opening gift?

I’m telling you, there is a problem with this offense. A lot of tight window/terrific catches on short passes early on in that game for KC.

 -- Chris Godwin (7-59-0/10) is back, with Mike Evans (8-103-2/10) back…and some Julio Jones (1-7-0/2) back…it means I’m done with Russell Gage (2-24-0/4). I didn’t expect Godwin to be so ‘back’ for this game, but he was…and Gage looks like he is not 100% still and I got better things to mess with then messing with Gage trying to be relevant with Evans-Godwin-Julio all active.

 

 

  ===== FIVE PLAYERS =====

 

*** FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST***

*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.

**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..

***IF FAAB% mentioned at any time below is based on a 16-20 man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, and lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.

 

*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.

 

 

1) RB Brian Robinson, WSH (Grade: B)

Robinson will be the lead RB in Washington soon…that might be mediocre, or it might be in a three-way split or an eventual full breakout for BRob (sketchy on this team/O-Line), but the main reason I grade this move highly is -- he will be a media focus, he’ll be made out to be a god…your best bet might be to sell him hot before he even takes an NFL snap because his hype could exceed any reality.  

 

2) RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Grade: B)

With all the RB injuries happening and opportunities created for the underneath guy…I like this one the best because I think Allgeier is the most talented RB on this list of waiver RBs, but is also the one with a straight shot to a main/lead role.

He might split a little at first, but I think for a ‘still in it’ ATL team, Allgeier is a great answer to carry out the main duties for at least the next 4 weeks and not be bumped by other RBs on the roster.

Will Caleb Huntley nose in there? Maybe, but I’d bet on Allgeier to win the day and maybe the rest of the season and the rest of the time with Arthur Smith, and after, for years ahead…but I don’t want to bet big on Arthur Smith doing anything smart either.

 

3) RB Mike Boone, DEN (Grade: B-/C+)

With Javonte Williams out for the season, then Boone will run with Melvin Gordon…and now that people are mocking Gordon for fumbles, it makes it seem like Boone is going to be the main man in Denver. Umm, Javonte wasn’t even the main man in Denver…nor were his numbers all that great. You expect Boone, who is good, to get a run as some lead guy where Javonte couldn’t?

And if you think Denver is done with Melvin Gordon due to fumbles, you are sadly mistaken. Until he is cut from the team, he will always be wedged into the rotation.

So, you hate Rashaad Penny…but Mike Boone is money and the one you’re going to spend all your FAAB money on?

If I knew Boone was definitely the main starter, it would be one thing…but Gordon will start out as the guy + I’m sure Denver will chase a veteran name and elevate

 

4) QB Jared Goff, DET (Grade: B/C)

If you need a 2nd (or 1st) QB boost…I’ve been trying to push this to everyone for two+ weeks now. I think most have listened/acted, but universally Goff is still under 50% owned.

Goff is good…and is in a perfect place for high volume passing due to a bad defense, leading to shoot outs and with a good O-Line to protect his million throws.

 

5) RB Raheem Mostert (Grade: C+)

The clear starting RB for a very good Miami offense/team…it’s worth something, until he gets hurt.

 

 

6) QB Geno Smith, SEA (Grade: C/D)

One of the best QBs in the NFL on the young season. Shocking, but true. I think he’ll get figured out and fade…but it’s working now, kind of in a Goff way…lesser-Goff way, bad defense in deficits leading to shootouts but a so-so O-Line.

 

7) TE Robert Tonyan, GB (Grade C-/D+)

Not many TE options to try and find life with off waivers, and we have felt Tonyan is getting towards a top 8-10 TE1 possibility ahead. Low targets Week 4 but did cash in on a TD.

 

8) WR Isaiah McKenzie (Grade: D+)

He is heating up, but more importantly he’s the slot facing the Steelers this week and that’s been money typically, so go with it…then trade it off, perhaps, after. But McKenzie is moving up the pecking order as Gabe Davis falls down it.

Also, Jamison Crowder has broken his foot -- so, the path keeps getting clearer for McKenzie.

 

9) WR DeVante Parker, NE (Grade: D+)   

Had a solid TD in the weird NE week with Mac-Hoyer gone and the rookie Zappe forced to play. I’m very interested in this when Mac is back, but unsure what impact Jakobi will have when he returns.

 

10) Mack Hollins, LV (Grade: D+)

Weak follow up game Week 4 from his terrific Week 3…but he had some chances in Week 4, and had another sweet TD catch but was an inch out of bounds from booking it. There’s something here because Hollins is such a presence on the field…but it has limited upside because of Davante there.

…but if Davante ever got hurt…

 

*IF Tua hits waivers this week, after the regular run, where he’s dropped…depending on my situation, and especially where I have Tyreek…I’m interested in adding Tua if I can/if it makes sense…knowing the risk with the head trauma issue.

 

-----------------------------------------------

 

***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***

  

1) QB Kenny Pickett, PIT

Will be good someday, but not today…not with those surroundings, not with the next 4 weeks of lethal schedule.

 

2) WR Jamal Agnew, JAX

Two TDs in Week 4, getting more work with Zay Jones out…when Zay returns, Agnew goes back to a WR3-4.

 

3) TE Mo-Alie Cox, IND

Two TDs Week 4…he’s a TE2 with hopes of a TD any given week, but low targeting and Jelani approaching in his rear-view mirror.

  

4) RB Caleb Huntley, ATL

He’s not as good as Tyler Allgeier, so he will disappear soon…but had a moment in Week 4.

 

5) QB Daniel Jones, NYG

Two rushing TDs…because he can’t pass for them. Hurt himself too. There is no upside here.

 

------------------------------

 

***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*

 

1) WR Curtis Samuel, WSH

Washington had two very tough opponents in the pass game the past two weeks (PHI and DAL)…and CSam was still the highest targeted WR in that span. He, nor anyone on the team, had a great FF output the past two weeks. The schedule ahead eases up the next two weeks to help the QB and WRs.

Because no one believes in CSam, because he’s not a magical/hot rookie…his value continues to fall to WR3 range because no one believes in him still. Please exchange some inflated WR3/RB2.5 for Samuel…add him to your WR group, you’ll be happy that you did. People are starting to panic on him…don’t overpay…only WE believe, no matter what THEY say to you…they don’t believe. Expose it.

 

2) WR Keenan Allen, LAC

A WR1 with Justin Herbert, his only real reliable WR. A healthy Allen walks back in to 6-7-8+ catches a game. 

 

3) WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA

Down week on TNF. Tua up in the air (out Week 4)…do you have Tyreek? Would it be wise to run these guys/WRs together AND have them as kinda handcuffs of each other?

Last two games, just 3.0 rec. on 5.5 targets per game…the window may be open to make a daring trade to pair Waddle and Tyreek…then it’s time to get Tua to complete the triad once we know he doesn’t have to retire or anything.

 

4) WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN

Three non-elite games in a row…if you want in, the current owner is likely starting to panic…willing to talk about it. He’s still gonna cost you, but maybe not as much as 3 to 6 weeks ago.

 

5) QB Jalen Hurts, PHI

Hey, he had a non-MVP stat tally Week 4...so, always a good time to wonder/dream/inquire…if desired. I put him on here because most of his current owners love him but are suspicious of him keeping this pace up. I’m not suggesting it’s cheap, but the window may have opened coming off a non-killer/crazy output game. Lamar Jackson, you can’t buy low…everyone loves him. Hurts…you might have the things to get it done from an owner who may have lost two in a row and had this so-so Hurts week and doesn’t really believe in Hurts as a top tier FF QB. He may be the single best QB for 4pts pass TD leagues…a guy who can turn things around if you’re off to a slow start.

 

-------------------------

 

***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as a neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*

  

1) WR Diontae Johnson, PIT

Facing BUF-TB-MIA-PHI the next 4 games…it’s a death row for Pickett, and for Diontae. Diontae was near top of this list last week going into the NYJ/Sauce game (which was the predicted dud for DJ), now he’s at the top of this list this week.

 

2) WR Mike Williams, LAC

Williams had another nice game…to allow you to sell high, if you desire. Williams is already erratic enough…but when Keenan Allen returns, it’s even more problematic for Big Mike to be FF-consistent. Not a must-sell, but a sell-high if you want.

 

3) RB Antonio Gibson, WSH

Brian Robinson is coming to take Gibson’s job…and FF-value…as we’ve said for weeks. It may begin Monday.

 

4) RB Rashaad Penny, SEA

FINALLY, we got our big game from him. Can he follow up? I’m not sure. I know that Penny has the talent for it, but my concern is whether the coach pushes it or not…and in 4 weeks, he has gotten a push…once…against a really bad defense.

I’m not against trying to sell this Week 4 pop hot…selling to those who are always paranoid about their RB group, they’d love the guy who did the good thing the prior week.

I am NOT DUMPING HIM…I am only willing to sell hot…like he’s an RB1.5 getting ready to be an RB1 level heat.

 

5) WR Darnell Mooney, CHI

Had a decent Week 4…a chance to sell him off for something you like better, just to get away from him and the Fields-based nightmare being delivered to him.

 

------------------------------

 

***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***

*Total flier/lowly owned or not-owned players

 

 

1a) RB Rachaad White, TB

Sunday night was a big jump for White as a real/desired part of the passing game, regardless of Fournette active or not. But if Fournette goes down, it’s RB1 in PPR time for White.

 

1b) RB Isiah Pacheco, KC

A big step taken Sunday night in getting Pacheco in position to start being the lead ballcarrier in a split with CEH. If/when CEH goes down…it’s on.

 

3) WR Skyy Moore, KC

Played a lot more snaps this week and caught 2 passes for 31 yards on 4 targets…he was a ghost in the 1st-half, then suddenly in-and-out of the 2nd-half where he looked good once again. More targets than Hardman-Watson combined. One target behind MVS.

One week it will just ‘happen’ and Skyy will be a sweet PPR worker on his way to being Mahomes’ #2 look after Kelce. Week 4 was the next step.

 

4) QB Carson Wentz, WSH

Just faced PHI and DAL and struggled to score…struggled to have time to throw both games. Easier times with TEN and at CHI the next two weeks.

 

5) TE Jelani Woods, IND

Man does he look good. Mo-Alie is in his way, maybe forever this season…but I think the Colts offense could really change course if they gave into Jelani as a receiving threat. He only played 15 snaps this week…which is a few more than last week. Reich will not give into this easily…he’s too smart for that, just look at the great job he’s done coaching this team this year and last.

 

6) RB Deon Jackson, IND

If JT is down, it will be a Hines lead-split with Deon Jackson…not with Philip Lindsay, I suspect.

 

7) RB Jaylen Warren, PIT

The clear and obvious Najee handcuff.

 

8) WR Khalil Shakir, BUF

Crowder breaks his foot…Gabe Davis is winding down…Shakir could be Josh Allen’s Amon-Ra St. Brown

 

9) WR Trestan Ebner, CHI

The handcuff to K. Herbert while D. Montgomery is down.

 

10) RB Devine Ozigbo, DEN

If Javonte is out for a long term, Ozigbo will be elevated…and then if Melvin Gordon fumbles his role away, we got the Boone-Ozigbo lightning and thunder duo.

 

---------------------------------

 

 -- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --

  

1) TE Noah Fant, DEN

His one catch Week 4 did get him a TD…but 1 catch/1 target…he’s fallen to the 3rd-most important TE on the roster. He’s a talent, but not for Seattle

  

2) WR Ashton Dulin, IND

I was wondering if his decent showings Week 2-3 might get him a run ahead of Parris Campbell, but it has not. Moving on.

 

3) TE Evan Engram, JAX

This isn’t working with any consistency…I can’t do this with Engram anymore.

 

4) WR Greg Dortch, ARI

With Rondale Moore back in Week 4, Dortch went from a WR2 in FF for three weeks…to one catch on one target. He’s dead with Rondale back, and even deader when A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins return. It was a nice run but now it’s over.

 

5) None

 

--------------------------------

 

***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS***--

 

1) Jaguars-DST

A hot ‘get’ this week…dropped/not picked up last week due to facing Philly Week 4, which was wise but now clouds how emerging/hot they were prior to Week 4.

You could run this defense the next 5 games…if they’re as good as the Week’s 2-3 games suggest (I don’t fault them for the no-so-great Philly game…but they actually weren’t bad against them).

Week 5 = host Houston

Week 6 = at Indy

Week 7 = hosting NYG

Week 8 = Denver in Europe

Week 9 = hosting Las Vegas

 

2) Dolphins-DST

A salty unit flying below the radar…and they get the Jets Week 5. Possibly useful Week 6 hosting Minnesota. Works well Week 7 hosting the rookie Pickett Week 7.

Week 8 at DET is not good, but then Week 9 at CHI is a gem. Week 10 hosting CLE works OK too.

 

3) Vikings-DST

Facing the Bears Week 5, at Minnesota…that’s a good opportunity for a week. Miami Week 6 is a no-go and then a Week 7 bye.

 

-------------------

 

 -- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --

 

1) LB Josey Jewell, DEN

14 tackles in Week 4, 9 tackles his first game back from injury Week 3. Jewell also has 3 TFLs in his first 2 games of 2022.

 

2) CB Roger McCreary, TEN

Continues his strong tackle pace…7 tackle this week, 9.3 tackles per game the past three games…which is stunning for a CB.

 

3) LB Tae Crowder, NYG

He finally had that game Ross Jacobs was hoping for…11 tackles, 1 sacks, 2 QB hits. He is the man in the middle for an NYG team that is likely to be on defense a lot ahead.

 

4) DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, LAC

Back-to-back games with 2.0 TFLs in each game. He’s a really good DT and starting to spike up some numbers for IDP.

 

5) OLB Boye Mafe, SEA

The rookie is playing a little more each week and starting to make some plays in the backfield. I thought he was one of the best pass rushers I scouted pre-Draft 2022. A season high 6 tackles and 32 snaps  Week 4.

  

 

Outtro…

If you were one of the unfortunate few who lost this past week, you gotta get the win this week.

Having trouble getting the right sit-starts to get the wins? There’s always this method (from a very underrated movie from decades ago): https://youtu.be/VosZzVlqxTg

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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