2022 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 9

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2022 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 9

 

The most FFM week of 2022…six NFL teams on a BYE, so our quality of depth was so very much in play for all this week -- and in our tracking, most FFM teams are killing it/killed it this week…tracking a 75%+ win-rate. If not for those facing Joe Mixon, it would be a best of 2022 week (to date), and if Taysom pushes above average/into 15-17+ PPR points tonight then it might be the ‘best of season’ week across all platforms type of week. Good luck in whatever you need tonight…if anything. 

A critical winning week (Week 9) as we start to turn to the final kick of the FF regular season. Five weeks to go for most leagues (before the playoffs start). Many teams were or will be in their league’s playoff projection after this week…but some still 1-2-3 games out. There is still time for those that are a few games out. You gotta keep winning, obviously…but we can. The wins, the scoring (compared to league averages) has been rising throughout this bye week stretch in the NFL and we still have four more bye weeks to go, over the next 5 weeks (no byes Thanksgiving Week 12).

Whether you are in the playoff club right now or still chasing it -- the FF-game remains the same, buy low, sell high, work the waivers. This is our time…the bye weeks, the wrong add/drops by opponents leading to bad sit/starts for them -- this is where we shine with info and ‘feel’ for what is really trending/going on. Keep running the race…let the others panic.

It’s getting ‘good’ now. Wins are accumulating faster than losses, on average, the past 3-4-5 weeks as we run through the vaunted bye weeks. We’re getting cranked up. We’re starting to turn this thing now…and/or are closing in fast. Get thee to the playoffs! It’s happening. The game is happening. Keep on playing the game. It’s time to play the game. It’s our war cry. Here we go!!!!! https://youtu.be/7YaNJuDA6JM

 

*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘quality start’ or not marker on a player using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.

A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.

 

 

--THREE THINGS--

 

 

LAC-ATL

 -- Cordarrelle Patterson (13-44-2, 1-9-0/1) came back from IR and got the TDs, but this really was the game where I finally started seeing the ‘it’ with Tyler Allgeier (10-99-0, 1-24-0/1). His best-looking game of his rookie season…from my eyeball test.

Atlanta is going to run 30-40+ times a game, if they can, and they are going to spread carries to 2-3 RBs…and Allgeier may now be a solid flex/RB3 option now week-to-week WITH CPatt as an RB1 threat…CPatt is a (3/2) this season.

 -- Justin Herbert (30-43 for 245 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 1-3-0) got robbed of multiple TDs and another 50+ yards passing in this game. This should’ve been a 300+ yard, 2-3 TD pass game but Herbert had a couple nice passes that the play ended at/near the goal line plus lost a couple chunk plays on flat-out drops to wide open receivers. Weak looking FF stat line for the week but it was not a Herbert issue.

Herbert started out (3/1) and is (0/4) since. He is the (3/1) guy…just waiting to re-happen.

 -- Josh Palmer (8-106-0/10) did step up with Allen-Williams out, but he had one of the bad drops and he didn’t dominate a flawed/wounded secondary…he was just ‘solid’/available.

Michael Bandy (5-26-0/8) did step up for LAC with an extra week of prep with no Allen-Williams available.

 

MIA-CHI

 -- Jeff Wilson (9-51-0, 3-21-1/3) shows up from SF in a trade, and is expected to support Raheem Mostert (9-26-1, 0-0-0/2)…instead, he kinda takes over in-game. Mostert was a ghost from the middle part to near the end of the game.

 -- Justin Fields (17-28 for 123 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 15-178-1) was so effective running that it opened up the passing game big-time and Miami could not contain any of it. Fields has become a for-sure QB1 now. He’s been a top FF QB the past 3-4 weeks prior…with this performance he’ll be right new the top the last 4-5 weeks.

After an (0/6) start…three quality games in-a-row (3/0).

 -- Chicago used Chase Claypool (2-13-0/6) right away…with more desire and urgency than Pittsburgh has all season. It was hit-and-near-miss on things here, but the desire/intent…the awareness that the coaches and QB knows what they have is there. Better days ahead.

 

CAR-CIN

 -- Joe Mixon (22-153-4, 4-58-1/5) had quite the game. He didn’t do anything that blows you away…just the Panthers literally were not there this game. And Cincy just ran it down their throat for the best run game in like forever in the Zac Taylor era…thus the weak passing game numbers (Burrow pulled with like 1.5 quarters left). Mixon is a (5/4) this season…and (3/1) his last 4 games.

 -- I suspect Baker Mayfield (14-20 for 155 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) will take over Week 10. Steve Wilks had a quick hook here. Walker was struggling, but so was the whole team. Baker didn’t look any good here…just threw in a 35-point deficit/against a soft defense opposition.

 -- Terrace Marshall (3-53-1/6) was shutout for a half+ then got a few grabs and made a terrific TD catch to salvage his FF day. He’s slowly moving towards equal footing with D.J. Moore (2-24-0/60 among the QBs and is definitely what they want to throw to near the end zone. DJM is a (2/7) this season.

 

GB-DET

 -- This was an eyeopener…seeing how bad this Packers offense is getting week-after-week, and it hit rock bottom here (maybe…maybe there’s more to fall?).

The offense was OK/better than being maligned as this losing streak started…but now it’s devolved into a mess. The worst defense in the league (DET) by a mile just handed it to Aaron Rodgers (23-43 for 291 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs). And I don’t think Rodgers is ‘losing it’, I think his offense and weapons are weak and he’s forcing things and it’s spiraling. And Rodgers definitely did not have his best day, but again not sure how much was him forcing things to make something happen where nothing is open/evident until I re-watch this. I just know Rodgers is not broken or fading like Matt Ryan, etc.

Dare I say…Green Bay/Rodgers is a ‘good matchup for your opposing DST now?

Rodgers is an (0/9) this season…unbelievable.

 -- I sat Allen Lazard (4-87-1/10) in places where I thought I had viable other options…but Lazard made it through the game unscathed and beat almost every option I used over him…did not beat by a ton in most cases, but still the Lazard fear/bet against by me -- it ended up the wrong way to play it…but I’d do it all over again in a heartbeat. If you had reasonable alternatives, you were smart to avoid the possible re-hit to the shoulder and done. He landed bad on a play early and came out holding himself awkwardly …and I thought it was over for him. Credit to him for fighting through -- that’s how good Allen Lazard is.

Lazard is a (4/3)…a (4/1) in games not coming off injury (Week 2) or hurt in-game and pulled early (Week 7).

 -- Jamaal Williams (24-81-0) gets his biggest workload in a long time…and then DOESN’T score any TDs?!?!?! He was like an automatic 2 TDs a game guy in 2022 it seemed, but not here. Still, he is CLEARLY the guy the Lions staff prefers. I don’t buy the D’Andre Swift (2-10-0, 3-40-0/4) injury story as hard as they’re spinning it.

 

IND-NE

 -- Sam Ehlinger (15-29 for 103 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 5-39-0) fell flat on his face in this game. The Patriots are not that defense that auto-crushes the young like they used to. It’s this Colts offense/O-Line (9 sacks) and coaching and Ehlinger not ready to perform at this level just yet all mixed together…all of that facing a very solid defense. Ehlinger’s shortcomings/not ready yet issues are destroying Pittman-Pierce-Parris and everybody -- and after a game with Las Vegas next week…it’s PHI-PIT-DAL gonna kill him/them after.

 -- Deon Jackson (11-23-0, 2-13-0/3) got hurt in-game and didn’t return. A knee…but unknown extent. If he misses time and Jon Taylor refuses to come back (which he should stay out until he is 110%) then Jordan Wilkins (3-13-0, 4-15-0/5) is the lame option you’re left with for next week, I guess. Don’t forget Zack Moss is here too.

 -- Mac Jones (20-30 for 147 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) wasn’t great but the Pats won, so no QB controversy in the immediate future. So, all the receivers are still stuck with this…like the Colts ones are in their situation -- hard to use consistently for FF.

*Late breaking news: Frank Reich fired Monday and replaced with an ESPN TV analyst and former player Jeff Saturday. The impact of this on FF will be discussed in the game recap of the IND-NE game.

 

BUF-NYJ

 -- Back-to-back games for Garrett Wilson (8-92-0/9) as the productive #1 WR look for Zach Wilson (18-25 for 154 yards, 1 TD/0 INT). Now, it looks like you can trust it/Garrett…especially with the nice game vs. the Buffalo defense, wounded as they were going into this.

Wilson is a (3/6) this season, but (2/0) the past two weeks.

 -- The Jets-DST story went from cute/emerging…to a top tier DST to own, and matchup may not matter for using them week-to-week. They handled the Bills offense better than any defense has this year. A Week 10 bye, so they might be left out there this week -- but if you’re hurting at DST and are looking for stable hope, the Jets just gave it to you and on more waivers than not right now and heading to the colder weather to aid them even more.

 -- Nyheim Hines (0-0-0/1) was a question all over ESPN and various Twitter questions pre-kick 1pmET about whether to start him this week…I had no idea why there is all this interest in Hines -- but anyone who started Hines got a goose egg. And I don’t think anyone in regular sized FF-leagues are ever going to use him in Buffalo.

 

MIN-WSH

 -- I’m impressed with T.J. Hockenson’s (9-70-0/9) Vikings debut…new team to get acclimated to this week and facing a defense that has been tough on TEs…and TJH had a big game/big targets. I did not think he’d splash here this week. Raising the projections ahead for TJH in Minnesota.

 -- The feel-good Antonio Gibson (11-36-0, 2-11-0/3) FF-renaissance the past two weeks hit a wall here. Minnesota playing him and Washington well, and there was no big spike in pass game work like there had been. No idea why…it was working prior. We’re back to a 50/50 split at RB with Gibson-Robinson, I guess…and neither option is all that great.

 -- Logan Thomas (0-0-0/3) has been back for two games now…and he has a total of no catches on 3 targets. I’ll scrutinize him when I rewatch, but the FF-end may be near for Thomas.

 

LV-JAX

 -- Davante Adams (10-146-2/17) had more yards, TDs than the rest of the Raiders team combined…plus, he nearly had more catches and targets than the rest of the team combined. The diva, ball hog WR that’s always chirping -- the death of an NFL team. But you count on it with Davante for FF, as long as Derek Carr is there…but you can pretty well ignore everything else…Renfrow-Hollins and Darren Waller whenever he returns.

Adams is a (6/2) this season.

 -- Travis Etienne (28-109-2, 2-17-0/2) had a nice tally…but it was a high touch count boost. Just 3.9 ypc, not all that impressive vs. a weak LV run defense. But it’s working for FF, so keep rolling with it.

After starting (0/4), Etienne is a (4/1) his last 5 games…with three straight 20+ PPR performances.

I’m really not impressed with what I see on tape, but I am impressed it is working for FF right now.

 -- I knew it…as soon as Evan Engram (1-8-0/2) pulls you back in…he kicks you in the FF-gut with a dud. This was a great matchup too, and they did nothing with it. Engram is a (1/8) this season.

 

SEA-ARI

 -- Rondale Moore (7-68-0/8) has been really nice in four of his last 5 games. Ignore the TNF Saints dud (1-31-0/2) and he’s averaged 7.3 rec. (9.0 targets), 69.5 yards, 0.25 TDs per game with (3/2) for quality starts his last 5 games…very nearly a (4/1).

 -- Seattle ganged up on that Arizona defense that’s so bad against the TE…three TEs had a combined 10 catches for 120 yards on 12 targets. That’s how you do it. Dying Tyler Higbee gets the Cards D Week 10. More on the ‘dying’ part in a moment.

 -- James Conner (7-45-0, 5-19-0/5) did return to action this week, and he looked solid/fine physically. It throws Eno Benjamin (4-12-0, 1-15-0/1) back to a handcuff only…a handcuff on a bad running game with O-Line issues.

 

LAR-TB

 -- Well, Darrell Henderson (12-56-0, 0-0-0/1) got a good treatment…or better treatment here. Ronnie Rivers was a ghost…no touches. Cam Akers (5-3-0) was his usual disaster self. Kyren Williams might be activated next week. I have no idea where this backfield is going…and I don’t know that any of us wants a share of stock in it regardless.

 -- Tom Brady (36-58 for 280 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) looks more and more like he is not going to turn this around and rise to new/old heights. Not because there’s something wrong with him…but more there’s something wrong with this entire offense/coaching/plan. Brady throwing 56 times and completing 36 of them for only 280 yards and a very late/desperation TD…59 minutes of flailing away prior…it just doesn’t look like it is in the cards for Brady and friends in 2022. Every play/completion looks painful to get…but Brady looks physically fine. Brady is now a (2/7) with 4 straight non-Q-starts.

I keep thinking/hoping Brady-Rodgers are playing well, and that they’ll find something in their respective struggling teams/offenses and pop a little for FF…especially Brady -- but it looks like that is a pipedream. I had already dropped projections on Green Bay things but didn’t go deep enough on Tampa Bay pass game things from what I had seen this season…but I’m getting the red pen out and slashing much Tampa things. I throw in the towel on Tampa things until I see some reason for real hope…not long-shot hope.

 -- Matt Stafford (13-27 for 165 yards, 1 TD/0 INT)? I had already slashed his projections several weeks ago. But apparently, I need to cut some more. And anything not Cooper Kupp (8-127-1/9) does not matter. Stafford is an (0/8) this season.

With that said, you can’t even count on Tyler Higbee (0-0-0/1) to take advantage of the Cardinals bad TE defense Week 10. The last 3 games for Higbee, which you won’t believe at first: 1.0 rec. (3.0 targets), 7.3 yards, 0.0 TDs per game. Higbee started out a (2/2) and has been an (0/4) ever since.

 

TEN-KC

 -- We got more glimpses of what Malik Willis (5-16 for 80 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 8-40-0) could be in this game…we saw flashes of the running weapon and some flashes of the rocket arm…but Mike Vrabel managed the game to keep Willis from having to do what happened in OT - not put Willis in a position to blow anything, and Vrabel almost pulled it off.

I wish Willis would have pulled off a miracle late to see if that would’ve started a QB controversy, but alas, it would not be. As soon as Ryan Tannehill is ready, it’s his show…and Tennessee wont score much more points or throw for much more yards, but they’ll have the veteran leadership and it’s best for 2022 business.

 -- Kadarius Toney (2-12-0/2) debuted with 9 snaps played, all early, and he looked good…but as expected the Chiefs kept him limited -- and when Tennessee took control of the game, KC panicked and forgot about him. Toney could’ve helped turn the tide, but I suspect, like Willis, KC didn’t want to put him in a position to fail at an early stage of their promising careers.

This is gonna be a slow ride, and most everyone in redraft will be stuck waiting, watching for weeks to see if it will ever turn. I don’t think it will turn in time, in redraft…but it’s so tantalizing you’re stuck with him waiting to see if it happens.

FFMers who didn’t get him or bother with him, in redraft, when the KC trade happened, you’ll likely get a chance to in 1-2 weeks when others start dropping him. But then it might be that waiting game curse that the thing you wait for never happens if you pick him up.

 -- That opening Titans play by rookie TE Chig Okonkwo (1-48-0/3) was awesome…that TE screen and where Chig ran through 15 KC defenders for a 48-yard game. It was so impressive no one deserved to see it again…it was his only touch of the game for a team that desperately needed plays. That’s how they used to stiff Jonnu Smith back in the day…as does the protégé Arthur Smith does with Kyle Pitts.

 

 

CLE bye = Deshaun Watson has to sit out three more games. He’ll be eligible to play Week 13 at Houston (funny how that works). How rusty, how jumpy, how reactive he’ll be to the absolute torching he’ll take from fans is all ‘unknown’…but, for the FF playoff stretch, he is going to start/play and his ‘used to be’ self is way better than the waiver wire QBs available in most leagues…if he can be like he used to be, and none of us knows if he will.

As we get closer to the FF playoffs, him as your #2 QB isn’t crazy to sit on, if your #2 QB is just a random Mariota-Heinicke-Stafford, etc., type…and people have started making that move the last 1-2 weeks. He's still well under 50% owned across all platforms.

 

DAL bye = With no moves made at WR at the trade deadline, I’m watching/moving into some positions to see if Michael Gallup is about to spring to FF-usefulness. Everything looks fine with his movements coming off ACL rehab…Dak is back…there were some flashes of something Week 8.

 

DEN bye = Chase Edmonds joins a suddenly crowded backfield of pretty flimsy talents. We project Mel Gordon to continue to ritualistically start but be a low touch count/low FF-impact RB. Latavius Murray will be ‘the lead’, in a sense with Chase Edmonds taking over some 3rd-downs and hurry up. I don’t FF-want any of them, but if I had to have one it would be Murray by default…he’s the TD guy, the guy they trust above all. I still expect Gordon to be cut before the season's end.

 

NYG bye = Darius Slayton is becoming the NYG #1 WR, it appears…but that’s shaky because consistency has been hard to find with NYG WRs and Dan Jones can only take a WR so far, but Slayton has been FF productive three out of the last 4 weeks prior to the Week 9 bye.

 

PIT bye = Is Jaylen Warren gonna get more run at RB ahead…per reports? I have been calling for it since Weeks 2-3…if the Steelers want to get back into the race they need to start winning and producing points, and Najee ain’t it. The football world is starting to turn on Najee, but it will full scale turn/mock if Warren starts splitting with Najee and doubling his output in the same game.

 

SF bye = From Week’s 4-8, only Mahomes-Burrow-Allen have more passing TDs than Jimmy Garoppolo. I know JG is ‘boring’ but look at his surroundings now…top RB…top O-Line (healthy now)…top TE…solid+ WR 1-2 punch in Deebo-Aiyuk. He has everything a QB could hope for and a good offensive-minded coach. Pretty favorable schedule about every week for the rest of the season.

 

 

  ===== FIVE PLAYERS =====

 

*** FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST***

*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.

**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..

***IF FAAB% mentioned at any time below is based on a 16–20-man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.

 

*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.

 

**Not as fruitful a waiver week this week. Tread lightly with low expectations…opportunity may knock later in the week for whatever bizarre things pop up.

 

1) RB Jeff Wilson, MIA (Grade: C+)

Walked right in off a trade, a giveaway player essentially…and is immediately working ahead of Raheem Mostert half+ of a tight game this week. What’s gonna happen after he’s been there for a full week?

He’s gonna split with Mostert but both be RB2-3 viable within that…and Wilson is also the heir apparent if Mostert goes down hurt.

 

2) PK Graham Gano, NYG (Grade: C)

Since Week 2, Gano has been the #1 scoring PPR kicker in FF. That’s not-nothing! He’s past his bye. He works on an offense that stalls drives and is fine settling for FGs. Where names like Evan McPherson and Harrison Butker and Tyler Bass are becoming letdowns…Gano deserves consideration to replace them.

Anyone notice what McPherson-Butker-Bass have in common? The top QBs in the NFL who have offenses that don’t stall as many drives and settle for FGs.

McPherson is getting the yips lately and Cincy is scoring TDs like crazy. McP also has a bye Week 10. It’s time for a change.

 

3) RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Grade: C)

Same note for weeks now, but this week (almost) for sure Williams will get inflated by the media as an RB savior for the Rams…and you can sell that for something. You want to flip this, not own it.

 

4) WR Terrace Marshall, CAR (Grade: C-)

Back-to-back weeks of solid output as Marshall is starting to show some flashes of maybe being the best WR on the Panthers…and that the QBs know this -- especially anywhere near the end zone. We’ve been on this for two weeks…now, everyone is going to start chasing him…especially with some promo help for upcoming TNF. He’ll be the hot sleeper for the mainstream this week…only many of you grabbed him ahead two weeks ago. For those that didn’t, this week is your last chance if desired.

 

5) WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Grade: C-/D+)

A rising #2 WR in a solid+ offense…one with #1 WR skills/hopes, and he is starting to look back to his old self lately coming off his ACL from last season. He looks ready to go from FF-bench/waivers to FF-useful with some upside.

 

6) TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Grade: D+)

Been productive in his first three appearances. In a sea of random event TE1 hopeful tight ends…Dulcich joins the list but has been more productive and early-on consistent than most. I’m still skeptical but what are you going to do…use Higbee or Henry or Engram, etc., this week?

 

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***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***

   

1) TE Tegan Quitoriano, HOU

The rookie had a TD on TNF, but this is not the start of anything…between his lack of athleticism and Houston’s lack of offense…don’t worry about it.

 

2) RB Raheem Blackshear, BUF

Got a few extra touches when Carolina got blown out and went away from the run game. Nothing to see here.

 

3) TE James Mitchell, DET

Scored a TD in his first week playing without T.J. Hockenson there but he only played 13 snaps and has a long way to go before he’s FF-viable. He has a hope and a future, but not an exciting current yet.

 

4) RB Jordan Wilkins, IND

If Deon Jackson is out, then Wilkins is a sad ‘next man up’ working behind a terrible O-Line/offense. If your RB desperation leads you here, your thirst is not likely to be quenched -- and Zack Moss should be ready for some work here too.

 

5) WR Odell Beckham Jr., FA

The media keeps making him out to be a savior…he’s an aged WR who was last impactful years ago, coming off another ACL -- he will join a team, maybe, in late November or into December for a playoff run…not to rush back to be an every down player. You’re likely wasting a roster spot holding onto this guy…throws him into a deal or throw him overboard.

 

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***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*

 

1) RB D’Onta Foreman, CAR

A terrible FF Week 9. So, the panic sets in…and forgotten was his two great games the two weeks prior. People already don’t believe in him, so his Week 9 gives them reason to run from him. The thing about Week 9 was…Carolina got down so deep, so fast that the run game went out the window.

He’s still an RB2 type hope, but now instead of being priced as an RB1-1.5 last week, he’ll be towards an RB3 valuation this week by panicky owners who ‘know’ he’s bound to collapse.

 

2) WR Keenan Allen, LAC

If you are willing to gamble that Keenan comes back and is 100% and takes off a la how DeAndre Hopkins splashed in his return…the Keenan price is getting lower and lower and lower. Fully at a WR2 value and fading. An FF team clinging to hope and in a must win (in their minds) every week…and they have Keenan, might dump him for any semblance of a real player -- if you can steal Keenan and be patient, hoping he kicks up for the stretch run. You do not want to pay up because Keenan might not return…or return right for all we know. This is ’stealing’ only.

 

3) QB Justin Herbert, LAC

If your season is spiraling with time running out and you have been getting nothing from your QBs (a Brady, etc.) and you wanna take a bet on talent turning -- then Herbert is an option. The guy is too good to be this bad in FF results.

This past week, he had several near-miss opps for better FF scoring but some un-luck -- a pass play to near the goal line but shy of the end zone…then LAC ran it in, or he had a few totally botched pass drops wide open to receivers for big chunk plays. Maybe all that changes if/when he can get Keenan on the field…and then Keenan and Big Mike together for the final kick.

I don’t know if he’ll get these WRs back in time or if he’ll go back to being great in 2022 -- but I do know current Herbert owners are ready to quit on him…the price is way down in redraft. And also for Dynasty, this is a good time to make a move…all new coaches, etc., next season and Herbert is a mega-talent.

 

4) WR Tee Higgins, CIN

Higgins’ last 5 weeks: missed a game with injury and then returned to WR2 numbers and just 1 TD. Current owners are getting frustrated, but this past week was a blowout not involving the WRs and then stars got pulled early to enjoy the beatdown on the sidelines. Higgins hasn’t been bad…he’s just not been wow for 5 weeks now…current owners are open for business if you have the goods. You’d try to get him as a WR1.5-2.0 price…or you’re not buying low.

Diontae Johnson + ___ smaller item for Tee Higgins might work…as an example.

 

5) WR DeVonta Smith, PHI

Three games in-a-row with lower production…prior to that he was a hot WR, the #1 WR for Philly. Maybe it’s shifted to A.J. Brown…but I think DeVonta is either a 1a/1b…or just a strong WR2 option working with a solid QB. If you find someone selling as a WR2-2.5 in recent frustration…it may be worth exploring, especially if you have Jalen Hurts…and if you believe Smith is better than he is recent run.

 

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***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as a neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*

  

1) WR Josh Palmer, LAC

A quality start Week 9 due to no Keenan-Big Mike, if either returns Week 10…it’s over for Palmer. Without those guys back, Palmer is a WR1 hopeful…with them back, he’s a WR4. If you want to/can sell Palmer hot for other needed/desired things, it makes some sense. This is a limited engagement only…unless Keenan never returns.

 

2) WR Michael Pittman, IND

Value is falling fast…he’s so talented, but underproductive for FF. Pittman is in a bad spot for FF production, so I don’t see where he gets any better than a WR2-2.5 with Ehlinger…but his name value and prior numbers can keep him propped up for FF value for some. If you can get WR1.5-ish type value out of him, you should move him.

 

3) WR Terrace Marshall, CAR

Some people are going to get excited about this fresh name…one several of you grabbed two weeks ago when no one was even looking. He’s fine but works on a garbage offense/team. If you don’t think Baker will matter to either Marshall or D.J. Moore -- this is a good week to cash out on Marshall. As we lead up to TNF this week, and THEY need something to talk about for the game…Terrace Marshall will be a fresh story to push to the sheep -- and then maybe you see him as a WR2 value, as the hot new thing for Carolina. Hopefully…maybe.

 

4) TE Kyle Pitts, ATL

Pitts will get some promotion leading up to TNF this week too…and people still love Pitts, the allure of him, like we all did. Last week was the time to sell, but even after a Week 9 dud…Pitts holds some value where he should have none in redraft. People still want to buy low…and if you want to redraft sell for anything you can get, you’ll get something. Pitts for D’Onta Foreman?

 

5) RB Joe Mixon, CIN

I mean…coming off that Week 9 event, could the value be any better? And he has a Week 10 bye, so you have the excuse of needing players this week and you hate to move Mixon, but you’re pressed this week…blah-blah-blah, all cover to sell extremely high if you can. Sell as a top 5 RB1, or just hold. We’re not dumping…we’re leveraging if we can…and maybe next week this time is also an opportunity with him off the bye.

 

------------------------------

 

***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***

*Total flier/lowly owned or not-owned players

 

1) RB Rachaad White, TB

The support for Fournette as the full lead is starting to buckle. If Fournette goes down, White becomes an RB1 threat in PPR the next moment.

 

2) RB Jaylen Warren, PIT

A Najee injury away from being an RB1.5-2.0…and rumor is he’ll be working more of a split with Najee ahead. Wow.

 

3) QB Deshaun Watson, CLE

He makes his debut in 4 weeks…and is a name that might have value to trade ahead of it, as we get closer. Or maybe he does well right off the bat?

 

4) WR Darius Slayton, NYG

More productive than people realize…three of his last 4 games. Someone has to be the NYG #1, and it looks like Slayton…but this is a weak passing game to be a #1 in.

 

5) WR Jameson Williams, DET

Projected to debut on Thanksgiving Day? Will be the Lions #1 in short order.

 

6) QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF

What if CMC unlocks the gate to a real passing game for SF? JG has 2 TD passes in four straight games. LAC-ARI-NO the next three weeks too. JG has been one of the best QBs, statistically, in the league in his prior 4-5 games. He’s got a loaded squad around him now. Among all the random QB2 options…he may stand tallest.

 

7) RB James Cook, BUF

So, the Bills barely use Cook all season…then they trade for Hines, and then now (Week 9) they start to use Cook more and he keeps making chunk plays. Will they keep using him or will Hines push past him?

 

8) RB Zamir White, LV

What happens if FF’s #1 RB, Josh Jacobs, goes down? It’s Zamir’s game to lose.

 

9) RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA

If Kenneth Walker goes down, Dallas takes over.

 

10) WR Michael Bandy, LAC

If Keenan Allen stays out longer and longer, Bandy can be the #2 look…maybe even the #1 for Herbert due to the weak other options. ‘It’ started to happen in Week 9. ONLY if Keenan is out.

 

11) QB Malik Willis, TEN

Maybe Ryan Tannehill misses Week 10 too? If Willis gets another start, and he starts to flash in a start -- there will be a QB controversy. I suspect there won’t be, but it’s not impossible.

 

---------------------------------

 

 -- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --

  

1) RB Philip Lindsay, IND

Buried behind JT, Deon, now Wilkins-Moss. I don’t know who Lindsay pissed off to get snubbed in his career, but it continues into 2022.

 

2) WR Elijah Moore, NYJ

Since his trade demand week off, he’s played 2 games…37 snaps total…with 1 target (and no catches). He’s done.

 

3) RB Ronnie Rivers, LAR

That was fun…Week 8, he’s the man-ish, for some reason -- and then Week 9 he plays zero snaps. Makes a lot of sense. I’m so surprised the Rams suck.

 

4) WR Van Jefferson, LAR

Week 9 = 0 catches on 5 targets. Two games back from injury, zero catches for 5 targets total. He’s gonna get benched for Lance McCutcheon, I bet, soon.

 

5) RB Sony Michel, LAC

Looks like Isaiah Spiller has finally gotten a push ahead of Michel…and Josh Kelley will be back soon. Spiller then returning Kelley then Michel is the order in the handcuff sweepstakes, I believe.

 

--------------------------------

 

***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVERS(?) OPTIONS***--

 

1) Jets-DST

This defense keeps getting better and better and after a Week 10 bye…they face NE Week 11, Chicago Week 12…matchups where their defense has a better unit than the opposing offense. You could push them out Week 13 at MIN, but it’s not optimal.

Week 14 = at BUF…not great but the weather could make it a mess/slog.

Week 15 = DET…not perfect but the Jets may handle the decent DET offense…and this would be at cold, windy NYJ.

Week 16 = JAX…I like it at cold, windy NYJ.

Week 17 = at SEA…OK matchup, not great.

 

 

2) Titans-DST

You saw how good they were vs. KC on SNF…they are just so well-coached and starting to come into their own.

Week 10 hosting Denver is a start potential.

Week 11 at GB…suddenly this is an OK/good matchup.

 

 

3) Commanders-DST

Another quality effort Week 9 from this sneaky good defense. Chase Young should return soon. PHI in Week 10 is no good, but then…

Week 11 at HOU…a good start option

Week 12 = ATL…a good matchup for WSH

Week 13 = at NYG…good matchup

Week 14 = BYE

Week 15 = NYG…still a good matchup

Week 16 = at SF…not good.

Week 17 = CLE…could be OK.

 

 

4) Steelers-DST

Off the Week 9 bye, but after that, they should get T.J. Watt and the rest of their secondary for the 2nd-half of the season and have a favorable matchup with the Saints Week 10 (IF everyone is back for Pitt).

Week 11 = host Cincy with their weak O-Line and no Ja’Marr, but Burrow is amazing.

Week 12 = at Indy…this works fine

Week 13 = at ATL…OK matchup

Week 14 = v. BAL…always a war.

Week 15 = at CAR…nice

Week 16 = v. LV…workable and maybe favorable in the cold/outdoors for LV

Week 17 = at BAL…always a war, and in the cold.

 

 

5) Giants-DST

A good defense that has nice NFL metrics but weak FF scoring, so far…but they are a good unit.

Week 10 = v. HOU…good opportunity.

Week 11 = DET…maybe

Week 12 = at DAL…no

Week 13 = v. WSH…yes

Week 14 = PHI…no

Week 15 = at WSH…yes

Week 16 = at MIN…no

Week 17 = IND…should be good.

 

---------------------------------

 

 -- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --

 

1) DE Denico Autry, TEN

Has recorded at least one sack in a game in his last five games (has played 6 games this season). 7.0 sacks in 5 games in 2022…that’s good, right? Autry had 9.0 sacks for TEN last season. He now has 11.0 sacks in his last 11 games played…that’s good, right? He doesn’t necessarily come to mind when you think of the top pass rushers in the game. It happened right under my nose…my seasonal projections for him keep pulling him to ‘falling back to earth’, but he doesn’t. Big projection upgrade is coming…overdue.

 

2) LB Jack Sanborn, CHI

A UDFA we really liked from the 2022 preseason. With all the Roquan trade, he was moved to starting ILB Week 9…and responded with 7 solo tackles in his starting debut. He could be the shock IDP of the rest of the season from here. Get in on it early.

 

3) DT Javon Hargrave, PHI

He’s been quiet all year, until the last two games…5.0 sacks his last two games. He’s so good when he is on.

 

4) SAF Kerby Joseph, DET

The rookie picked off Aaron Rodgers twice and made several other good plays in this game. 10-6-5 for tackles the past 3 weeks with 4 TDs and 2 picks.

 

5) CB Kader Kohou, MIA

One of my favorite discoveries of the past few weeks…love his tape…love his production as he becomes a starter. 8-6-4-6-6 for tackles the last 5 games. Not bad out of a CB.

 

6) LB Blake Martinez, LV

Just getting up to speed the past few weeks and then 11 tackles Week 9 v. JAX. Might this be a sign of things to come for one of the better LBs of the past few years.?

 

7) LB Josh Uche, NE

4.0 sacks his last 4 games…3.0 sacks v. IND Week 9. He’s starting to perk up.

 

-------------------------------

 

OUTTRO:

 

Keeping with the heavy metal anthem theme. Maybe this should be our rally cry/theme song/video clip going forward for FF: https://youtu.be/7gGuGrqwEM8

 

NO Video Q&A tonight (no TNF game)
The Dual DST Theory for 2021…

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2022 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 9

Date:
November 7, 2022

 

2022 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 9

 

The most FFM week of 2022…six NFL teams on a BYE, so our quality of depth was so very much in play for all this week -- and in our tracking, most FFM teams are killing it/killed it this week…tracking a 75%+ win-rate. If not for those facing Joe Mixon, it would be a best of 2022 week (to date), and if Taysom pushes above average/into 15-17+ PPR points tonight then it might be the ‘best of season’ week across all platforms type of week. Good luck in whatever you need tonight…if anything. 

A critical winning week (Week 9) as we start to turn to the final kick of the FF regular season. Five weeks to go for most leagues (before the playoffs start). Many teams were or will be in their league’s playoff projection after this week…but some still 1-2-3 games out. There is still time for those that are a few games out. You gotta keep winning, obviously…but we can. The wins, the scoring (compared to league averages) has been rising throughout this bye week stretch in the NFL and we still have four more bye weeks to go, over the next 5 weeks (no byes Thanksgiving Week 12).

Whether you are in the playoff club right now or still chasing it -- the FF-game remains the same, buy low, sell high, work the waivers. This is our time…the bye weeks, the wrong add/drops by opponents leading to bad sit/starts for them -- this is where we shine with info and ‘feel’ for what is really trending/going on. Keep running the race…let the others panic.

It’s getting ‘good’ now. Wins are accumulating faster than losses, on average, the past 3-4-5 weeks as we run through the vaunted bye weeks. We’re getting cranked up. We’re starting to turn this thing now…and/or are closing in fast. Get thee to the playoffs! It’s happening. The game is happening. Keep on playing the game. It’s time to play the game. It’s our war cry. Here we go!!!!! https://youtu.be/7YaNJuDA6JM

 

*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘quality start’ or not marker on a player using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.

A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.

 

 

--THREE THINGS--

 

 

LAC-ATL

 -- Cordarrelle Patterson (13-44-2, 1-9-0/1) came back from IR and got the TDs, but this really was the game where I finally started seeing the ‘it’ with Tyler Allgeier (10-99-0, 1-24-0/1). His best-looking game of his rookie season…from my eyeball test.

Atlanta is going to run 30-40+ times a game, if they can, and they are going to spread carries to 2-3 RBs…and Allgeier may now be a solid flex/RB3 option now week-to-week WITH CPatt as an RB1 threat…CPatt is a (3/2) this season.

 -- Justin Herbert (30-43 for 245 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 1-3-0) got robbed of multiple TDs and another 50+ yards passing in this game. This should’ve been a 300+ yard, 2-3 TD pass game but Herbert had a couple nice passes that the play ended at/near the goal line plus lost a couple chunk plays on flat-out drops to wide open receivers. Weak looking FF stat line for the week but it was not a Herbert issue.

Herbert started out (3/1) and is (0/4) since. He is the (3/1) guy…just waiting to re-happen.

 -- Josh Palmer (8-106-0/10) did step up with Allen-Williams out, but he had one of the bad drops and he didn’t dominate a flawed/wounded secondary…he was just ‘solid’/available.

Michael Bandy (5-26-0/8) did step up for LAC with an extra week of prep with no Allen-Williams available.

 

MIA-CHI

 -- Jeff Wilson (9-51-0, 3-21-1/3) shows up from SF in a trade, and is expected to support Raheem Mostert (9-26-1, 0-0-0/2)…instead, he kinda takes over in-game. Mostert was a ghost from the middle part to near the end of the game.

 -- Justin Fields (17-28 for 123 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 15-178-1) was so effective running that it opened up the passing game big-time and Miami could not contain any of it. Fields has become a for-sure QB1 now. He’s been a top FF QB the past 3-4 weeks prior…with this performance he’ll be right new the top the last 4-5 weeks.

After an (0/6) start…three quality games in-a-row (3/0).

 -- Chicago used Chase Claypool (2-13-0/6) right away…with more desire and urgency than Pittsburgh has all season. It was hit-and-near-miss on things here, but the desire/intent…the awareness that the coaches and QB knows what they have is there. Better days ahead.

 

CAR-CIN

 -- Joe Mixon (22-153-4, 4-58-1/5) had quite the game. He didn’t do anything that blows you away…just the Panthers literally were not there this game. And Cincy just ran it down their throat for the best run game in like forever in the Zac Taylor era…thus the weak passing game numbers (Burrow pulled with like 1.5 quarters left). Mixon is a (5/4) this season…and (3/1) his last 4 games.

 -- I suspect Baker Mayfield (14-20 for 155 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) will take over Week 10. Steve Wilks had a quick hook here. Walker was struggling, but so was the whole team. Baker didn’t look any good here…just threw in a 35-point deficit/against a soft defense opposition.

 -- Terrace Marshall (3-53-1/6) was shutout for a half+ then got a few grabs and made a terrific TD catch to salvage his FF day. He’s slowly moving towards equal footing with D.J. Moore (2-24-0/60 among the QBs and is definitely what they want to throw to near the end zone. DJM is a (2/7) this season.

 

GB-DET

 -- This was an eyeopener…seeing how bad this Packers offense is getting week-after-week, and it hit rock bottom here (maybe…maybe there’s more to fall?).

The offense was OK/better than being maligned as this losing streak started…but now it’s devolved into a mess. The worst defense in the league (DET) by a mile just handed it to Aaron Rodgers (23-43 for 291 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs). And I don’t think Rodgers is ‘losing it’, I think his offense and weapons are weak and he’s forcing things and it’s spiraling. And Rodgers definitely did not have his best day, but again not sure how much was him forcing things to make something happen where nothing is open/evident until I re-watch this. I just know Rodgers is not broken or fading like Matt Ryan, etc.

Dare I say…Green Bay/Rodgers is a ‘good matchup for your opposing DST now?

Rodgers is an (0/9) this season…unbelievable.

 -- I sat Allen Lazard (4-87-1/10) in places where I thought I had viable other options…but Lazard made it through the game unscathed and beat almost every option I used over him…did not beat by a ton in most cases, but still the Lazard fear/bet against by me -- it ended up the wrong way to play it…but I’d do it all over again in a heartbeat. If you had reasonable alternatives, you were smart to avoid the possible re-hit to the shoulder and done. He landed bad on a play early and came out holding himself awkwardly …and I thought it was over for him. Credit to him for fighting through -- that’s how good Allen Lazard is.

Lazard is a (4/3)…a (4/1) in games not coming off injury (Week 2) or hurt in-game and pulled early (Week 7).

 -- Jamaal Williams (24-81-0) gets his biggest workload in a long time…and then DOESN’T score any TDs?!?!?! He was like an automatic 2 TDs a game guy in 2022 it seemed, but not here. Still, he is CLEARLY the guy the Lions staff prefers. I don’t buy the D’Andre Swift (2-10-0, 3-40-0/4) injury story as hard as they’re spinning it.

 

IND-NE

 -- Sam Ehlinger (15-29 for 103 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 5-39-0) fell flat on his face in this game. The Patriots are not that defense that auto-crushes the young like they used to. It’s this Colts offense/O-Line (9 sacks) and coaching and Ehlinger not ready to perform at this level just yet all mixed together…all of that facing a very solid defense. Ehlinger’s shortcomings/not ready yet issues are destroying Pittman-Pierce-Parris and everybody -- and after a game with Las Vegas next week…it’s PHI-PIT-DAL gonna kill him/them after.

 -- Deon Jackson (11-23-0, 2-13-0/3) got hurt in-game and didn’t return. A knee…but unknown extent. If he misses time and Jon Taylor refuses to come back (which he should stay out until he is 110%) then Jordan Wilkins (3-13-0, 4-15-0/5) is the lame option you’re left with for next week, I guess. Don’t forget Zack Moss is here too.

 -- Mac Jones (20-30 for 147 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) wasn’t great but the Pats won, so no QB controversy in the immediate future. So, all the receivers are still stuck with this…like the Colts ones are in their situation -- hard to use consistently for FF.

*Late breaking news: Frank Reich fired Monday and replaced with an ESPN TV analyst and former player Jeff Saturday. The impact of this on FF will be discussed in the game recap of the IND-NE game.

 

BUF-NYJ

 -- Back-to-back games for Garrett Wilson (8-92-0/9) as the productive #1 WR look for Zach Wilson (18-25 for 154 yards, 1 TD/0 INT). Now, it looks like you can trust it/Garrett…especially with the nice game vs. the Buffalo defense, wounded as they were going into this.

Wilson is a (3/6) this season, but (2/0) the past two weeks.

 -- The Jets-DST story went from cute/emerging…to a top tier DST to own, and matchup may not matter for using them week-to-week. They handled the Bills offense better than any defense has this year. A Week 10 bye, so they might be left out there this week -- but if you’re hurting at DST and are looking for stable hope, the Jets just gave it to you and on more waivers than not right now and heading to the colder weather to aid them even more.

 -- Nyheim Hines (0-0-0/1) was a question all over ESPN and various Twitter questions pre-kick 1pmET about whether to start him this week…I had no idea why there is all this interest in Hines -- but anyone who started Hines got a goose egg. And I don’t think anyone in regular sized FF-leagues are ever going to use him in Buffalo.

 

MIN-WSH

 -- I’m impressed with T.J. Hockenson’s (9-70-0/9) Vikings debut…new team to get acclimated to this week and facing a defense that has been tough on TEs…and TJH had a big game/big targets. I did not think he’d splash here this week. Raising the projections ahead for TJH in Minnesota.

 -- The feel-good Antonio Gibson (11-36-0, 2-11-0/3) FF-renaissance the past two weeks hit a wall here. Minnesota playing him and Washington well, and there was no big spike in pass game work like there had been. No idea why…it was working prior. We’re back to a 50/50 split at RB with Gibson-Robinson, I guess…and neither option is all that great.

 -- Logan Thomas (0-0-0/3) has been back for two games now…and he has a total of no catches on 3 targets. I’ll scrutinize him when I rewatch, but the FF-end may be near for Thomas.

 

LV-JAX

 -- Davante Adams (10-146-2/17) had more yards, TDs than the rest of the Raiders team combined…plus, he nearly had more catches and targets than the rest of the team combined. The diva, ball hog WR that’s always chirping -- the death of an NFL team. But you count on it with Davante for FF, as long as Derek Carr is there…but you can pretty well ignore everything else…Renfrow-Hollins and Darren Waller whenever he returns.

Adams is a (6/2) this season.

 -- Travis Etienne (28-109-2, 2-17-0/2) had a nice tally…but it was a high touch count boost. Just 3.9 ypc, not all that impressive vs. a weak LV run defense. But it’s working for FF, so keep rolling with it.

After starting (0/4), Etienne is a (4/1) his last 5 games…with three straight 20+ PPR performances.

I’m really not impressed with what I see on tape, but I am impressed it is working for FF right now.

 -- I knew it…as soon as Evan Engram (1-8-0/2) pulls you back in…he kicks you in the FF-gut with a dud. This was a great matchup too, and they did nothing with it. Engram is a (1/8) this season.

 

SEA-ARI

 -- Rondale Moore (7-68-0/8) has been really nice in four of his last 5 games. Ignore the TNF Saints dud (1-31-0/2) and he’s averaged 7.3 rec. (9.0 targets), 69.5 yards, 0.25 TDs per game with (3/2) for quality starts his last 5 games…very nearly a (4/1).

 -- Seattle ganged up on that Arizona defense that’s so bad against the TE…three TEs had a combined 10 catches for 120 yards on 12 targets. That’s how you do it. Dying Tyler Higbee gets the Cards D Week 10. More on the ‘dying’ part in a moment.

 -- James Conner (7-45-0, 5-19-0/5) did return to action this week, and he looked solid/fine physically. It throws Eno Benjamin (4-12-0, 1-15-0/1) back to a handcuff only…a handcuff on a bad running game with O-Line issues.

 

LAR-TB

 -- Well, Darrell Henderson (12-56-0, 0-0-0/1) got a good treatment…or better treatment here. Ronnie Rivers was a ghost…no touches. Cam Akers (5-3-0) was his usual disaster self. Kyren Williams might be activated next week. I have no idea where this backfield is going…and I don’t know that any of us wants a share of stock in it regardless.

 -- Tom Brady (36-58 for 280 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) looks more and more like he is not going to turn this around and rise to new/old heights. Not because there’s something wrong with him…but more there’s something wrong with this entire offense/coaching/plan. Brady throwing 56 times and completing 36 of them for only 280 yards and a very late/desperation TD…59 minutes of flailing away prior…it just doesn’t look like it is in the cards for Brady and friends in 2022. Every play/completion looks painful to get…but Brady looks physically fine. Brady is now a (2/7) with 4 straight non-Q-starts.

I keep thinking/hoping Brady-Rodgers are playing well, and that they’ll find something in their respective struggling teams/offenses and pop a little for FF…especially Brady -- but it looks like that is a pipedream. I had already dropped projections on Green Bay things but didn’t go deep enough on Tampa Bay pass game things from what I had seen this season…but I’m getting the red pen out and slashing much Tampa things. I throw in the towel on Tampa things until I see some reason for real hope…not long-shot hope.

 -- Matt Stafford (13-27 for 165 yards, 1 TD/0 INT)? I had already slashed his projections several weeks ago. But apparently, I need to cut some more. And anything not Cooper Kupp (8-127-1/9) does not matter. Stafford is an (0/8) this season.

With that said, you can’t even count on Tyler Higbee (0-0-0/1) to take advantage of the Cardinals bad TE defense Week 10. The last 3 games for Higbee, which you won’t believe at first: 1.0 rec. (3.0 targets), 7.3 yards, 0.0 TDs per game. Higbee started out a (2/2) and has been an (0/4) ever since.

 

TEN-KC

 -- We got more glimpses of what Malik Willis (5-16 for 80 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 8-40-0) could be in this game…we saw flashes of the running weapon and some flashes of the rocket arm…but Mike Vrabel managed the game to keep Willis from having to do what happened in OT - not put Willis in a position to blow anything, and Vrabel almost pulled it off.

I wish Willis would have pulled off a miracle late to see if that would’ve started a QB controversy, but alas, it would not be. As soon as Ryan Tannehill is ready, it’s his show…and Tennessee wont score much more points or throw for much more yards, but they’ll have the veteran leadership and it’s best for 2022 business.

 -- Kadarius Toney (2-12-0/2) debuted with 9 snaps played, all early, and he looked good…but as expected the Chiefs kept him limited -- and when Tennessee took control of the game, KC panicked and forgot about him. Toney could’ve helped turn the tide, but I suspect, like Willis, KC didn’t want to put him in a position to fail at an early stage of their promising careers.

This is gonna be a slow ride, and most everyone in redraft will be stuck waiting, watching for weeks to see if it will ever turn. I don’t think it will turn in time, in redraft…but it’s so tantalizing you’re stuck with him waiting to see if it happens.

FFMers who didn’t get him or bother with him, in redraft, when the KC trade happened, you’ll likely get a chance to in 1-2 weeks when others start dropping him. But then it might be that waiting game curse that the thing you wait for never happens if you pick him up.

 -- That opening Titans play by rookie TE Chig Okonkwo (1-48-0/3) was awesome…that TE screen and where Chig ran through 15 KC defenders for a 48-yard game. It was so impressive no one deserved to see it again…it was his only touch of the game for a team that desperately needed plays. That’s how they used to stiff Jonnu Smith back in the day…as does the protégé Arthur Smith does with Kyle Pitts.

 

 

CLE bye = Deshaun Watson has to sit out three more games. He’ll be eligible to play Week 13 at Houston (funny how that works). How rusty, how jumpy, how reactive he’ll be to the absolute torching he’ll take from fans is all ‘unknown’…but, for the FF playoff stretch, he is going to start/play and his ‘used to be’ self is way better than the waiver wire QBs available in most leagues…if he can be like he used to be, and none of us knows if he will.

As we get closer to the FF playoffs, him as your #2 QB isn’t crazy to sit on, if your #2 QB is just a random Mariota-Heinicke-Stafford, etc., type…and people have started making that move the last 1-2 weeks. He's still well under 50% owned across all platforms.

 

DAL bye = With no moves made at WR at the trade deadline, I’m watching/moving into some positions to see if Michael Gallup is about to spring to FF-usefulness. Everything looks fine with his movements coming off ACL rehab…Dak is back…there were some flashes of something Week 8.

 

DEN bye = Chase Edmonds joins a suddenly crowded backfield of pretty flimsy talents. We project Mel Gordon to continue to ritualistically start but be a low touch count/low FF-impact RB. Latavius Murray will be ‘the lead’, in a sense with Chase Edmonds taking over some 3rd-downs and hurry up. I don’t FF-want any of them, but if I had to have one it would be Murray by default…he’s the TD guy, the guy they trust above all. I still expect Gordon to be cut before the season's end.

 

NYG bye = Darius Slayton is becoming the NYG #1 WR, it appears…but that’s shaky because consistency has been hard to find with NYG WRs and Dan Jones can only take a WR so far, but Slayton has been FF productive three out of the last 4 weeks prior to the Week 9 bye.

 

PIT bye = Is Jaylen Warren gonna get more run at RB ahead…per reports? I have been calling for it since Weeks 2-3…if the Steelers want to get back into the race they need to start winning and producing points, and Najee ain’t it. The football world is starting to turn on Najee, but it will full scale turn/mock if Warren starts splitting with Najee and doubling his output in the same game.

 

SF bye = From Week’s 4-8, only Mahomes-Burrow-Allen have more passing TDs than Jimmy Garoppolo. I know JG is ‘boring’ but look at his surroundings now…top RB…top O-Line (healthy now)…top TE…solid+ WR 1-2 punch in Deebo-Aiyuk. He has everything a QB could hope for and a good offensive-minded coach. Pretty favorable schedule about every week for the rest of the season.

 

 

  ===== FIVE PLAYERS =====

 

*** FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST***

*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.

**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..

***IF FAAB% mentioned at any time below is based on a 16–20-man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.

 

*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.

 

**Not as fruitful a waiver week this week. Tread lightly with low expectations…opportunity may knock later in the week for whatever bizarre things pop up.

 

1) RB Jeff Wilson, MIA (Grade: C+)

Walked right in off a trade, a giveaway player essentially…and is immediately working ahead of Raheem Mostert half+ of a tight game this week. What’s gonna happen after he’s been there for a full week?

He’s gonna split with Mostert but both be RB2-3 viable within that…and Wilson is also the heir apparent if Mostert goes down hurt.

 

2) PK Graham Gano, NYG (Grade: C)

Since Week 2, Gano has been the #1 scoring PPR kicker in FF. That’s not-nothing! He’s past his bye. He works on an offense that stalls drives and is fine settling for FGs. Where names like Evan McPherson and Harrison Butker and Tyler Bass are becoming letdowns…Gano deserves consideration to replace them.

Anyone notice what McPherson-Butker-Bass have in common? The top QBs in the NFL who have offenses that don’t stall as many drives and settle for FGs.

McPherson is getting the yips lately and Cincy is scoring TDs like crazy. McP also has a bye Week 10. It’s time for a change.

 

3) RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Grade: C)

Same note for weeks now, but this week (almost) for sure Williams will get inflated by the media as an RB savior for the Rams…and you can sell that for something. You want to flip this, not own it.

 

4) WR Terrace Marshall, CAR (Grade: C-)

Back-to-back weeks of solid output as Marshall is starting to show some flashes of maybe being the best WR on the Panthers…and that the QBs know this -- especially anywhere near the end zone. We’ve been on this for two weeks…now, everyone is going to start chasing him…especially with some promo help for upcoming TNF. He’ll be the hot sleeper for the mainstream this week…only many of you grabbed him ahead two weeks ago. For those that didn’t, this week is your last chance if desired.

 

5) WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Grade: C-/D+)

A rising #2 WR in a solid+ offense…one with #1 WR skills/hopes, and he is starting to look back to his old self lately coming off his ACL from last season. He looks ready to go from FF-bench/waivers to FF-useful with some upside.

 

6) TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Grade: D+)

Been productive in his first three appearances. In a sea of random event TE1 hopeful tight ends…Dulcich joins the list but has been more productive and early-on consistent than most. I’m still skeptical but what are you going to do…use Higbee or Henry or Engram, etc., this week?

 

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***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***

   

1) TE Tegan Quitoriano, HOU

The rookie had a TD on TNF, but this is not the start of anything…between his lack of athleticism and Houston’s lack of offense…don’t worry about it.

 

2) RB Raheem Blackshear, BUF

Got a few extra touches when Carolina got blown out and went away from the run game. Nothing to see here.

 

3) TE James Mitchell, DET

Scored a TD in his first week playing without T.J. Hockenson there but he only played 13 snaps and has a long way to go before he’s FF-viable. He has a hope and a future, but not an exciting current yet.

 

4) RB Jordan Wilkins, IND

If Deon Jackson is out, then Wilkins is a sad ‘next man up’ working behind a terrible O-Line/offense. If your RB desperation leads you here, your thirst is not likely to be quenched -- and Zack Moss should be ready for some work here too.

 

5) WR Odell Beckham Jr., FA

The media keeps making him out to be a savior…he’s an aged WR who was last impactful years ago, coming off another ACL -- he will join a team, maybe, in late November or into December for a playoff run…not to rush back to be an every down player. You’re likely wasting a roster spot holding onto this guy…throws him into a deal or throw him overboard.

 

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***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*

 

1) RB D’Onta Foreman, CAR

A terrible FF Week 9. So, the panic sets in…and forgotten was his two great games the two weeks prior. People already don’t believe in him, so his Week 9 gives them reason to run from him. The thing about Week 9 was…Carolina got down so deep, so fast that the run game went out the window.

He’s still an RB2 type hope, but now instead of being priced as an RB1-1.5 last week, he’ll be towards an RB3 valuation this week by panicky owners who ‘know’ he’s bound to collapse.

 

2) WR Keenan Allen, LAC

If you are willing to gamble that Keenan comes back and is 100% and takes off a la how DeAndre Hopkins splashed in his return…the Keenan price is getting lower and lower and lower. Fully at a WR2 value and fading. An FF team clinging to hope and in a must win (in their minds) every week…and they have Keenan, might dump him for any semblance of a real player -- if you can steal Keenan and be patient, hoping he kicks up for the stretch run. You do not want to pay up because Keenan might not return…or return right for all we know. This is ’stealing’ only.

 

3) QB Justin Herbert, LAC

If your season is spiraling with time running out and you have been getting nothing from your QBs (a Brady, etc.) and you wanna take a bet on talent turning -- then Herbert is an option. The guy is too good to be this bad in FF results.

This past week, he had several near-miss opps for better FF scoring but some un-luck -- a pass play to near the goal line but shy of the end zone…then LAC ran it in, or he had a few totally botched pass drops wide open to receivers for big chunk plays. Maybe all that changes if/when he can get Keenan on the field…and then Keenan and Big Mike together for the final kick.

I don’t know if he’ll get these WRs back in time or if he’ll go back to being great in 2022 -- but I do know current Herbert owners are ready to quit on him…the price is way down in redraft. And also for Dynasty, this is a good time to make a move…all new coaches, etc., next season and Herbert is a mega-talent.

 

4) WR Tee Higgins, CIN

Higgins’ last 5 weeks: missed a game with injury and then returned to WR2 numbers and just 1 TD. Current owners are getting frustrated, but this past week was a blowout not involving the WRs and then stars got pulled early to enjoy the beatdown on the sidelines. Higgins hasn’t been bad…he’s just not been wow for 5 weeks now…current owners are open for business if you have the goods. You’d try to get him as a WR1.5-2.0 price…or you’re not buying low.

Diontae Johnson + ___ smaller item for Tee Higgins might work…as an example.

 

5) WR DeVonta Smith, PHI

Three games in-a-row with lower production…prior to that he was a hot WR, the #1 WR for Philly. Maybe it’s shifted to A.J. Brown…but I think DeVonta is either a 1a/1b…or just a strong WR2 option working with a solid QB. If you find someone selling as a WR2-2.5 in recent frustration…it may be worth exploring, especially if you have Jalen Hurts…and if you believe Smith is better than he is recent run.

 

-------------------------

 

***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***

*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as a neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*

  

1) WR Josh Palmer, LAC

A quality start Week 9 due to no Keenan-Big Mike, if either returns Week 10…it’s over for Palmer. Without those guys back, Palmer is a WR1 hopeful…with them back, he’s a WR4. If you want to/can sell Palmer hot for other needed/desired things, it makes some sense. This is a limited engagement only…unless Keenan never returns.

 

2) WR Michael Pittman, IND

Value is falling fast…he’s so talented, but underproductive for FF. Pittman is in a bad spot for FF production, so I don’t see where he gets any better than a WR2-2.5 with Ehlinger…but his name value and prior numbers can keep him propped up for FF value for some. If you can get WR1.5-ish type value out of him, you should move him.

 

3) WR Terrace Marshall, CAR

Some people are going to get excited about this fresh name…one several of you grabbed two weeks ago when no one was even looking. He’s fine but works on a garbage offense/team. If you don’t think Baker will matter to either Marshall or D.J. Moore -- this is a good week to cash out on Marshall. As we lead up to TNF this week, and THEY need something to talk about for the game…Terrace Marshall will be a fresh story to push to the sheep -- and then maybe you see him as a WR2 value, as the hot new thing for Carolina. Hopefully…maybe.

 

4) TE Kyle Pitts, ATL

Pitts will get some promotion leading up to TNF this week too…and people still love Pitts, the allure of him, like we all did. Last week was the time to sell, but even after a Week 9 dud…Pitts holds some value where he should have none in redraft. People still want to buy low…and if you want to redraft sell for anything you can get, you’ll get something. Pitts for D’Onta Foreman?

 

5) RB Joe Mixon, CIN

I mean…coming off that Week 9 event, could the value be any better? And he has a Week 10 bye, so you have the excuse of needing players this week and you hate to move Mixon, but you’re pressed this week…blah-blah-blah, all cover to sell extremely high if you can. Sell as a top 5 RB1, or just hold. We’re not dumping…we’re leveraging if we can…and maybe next week this time is also an opportunity with him off the bye.

 

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***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***

*Total flier/lowly owned or not-owned players

 

1) RB Rachaad White, TB

The support for Fournette as the full lead is starting to buckle. If Fournette goes down, White becomes an RB1 threat in PPR the next moment.

 

2) RB Jaylen Warren, PIT

A Najee injury away from being an RB1.5-2.0…and rumor is he’ll be working more of a split with Najee ahead. Wow.

 

3) QB Deshaun Watson, CLE

He makes his debut in 4 weeks…and is a name that might have value to trade ahead of it, as we get closer. Or maybe he does well right off the bat?

 

4) WR Darius Slayton, NYG

More productive than people realize…three of his last 4 games. Someone has to be the NYG #1, and it looks like Slayton…but this is a weak passing game to be a #1 in.

 

5) WR Jameson Williams, DET

Projected to debut on Thanksgiving Day? Will be the Lions #1 in short order.

 

6) QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF

What if CMC unlocks the gate to a real passing game for SF? JG has 2 TD passes in four straight games. LAC-ARI-NO the next three weeks too. JG has been one of the best QBs, statistically, in the league in his prior 4-5 games. He’s got a loaded squad around him now. Among all the random QB2 options…he may stand tallest.

 

7) RB James Cook, BUF

So, the Bills barely use Cook all season…then they trade for Hines, and then now (Week 9) they start to use Cook more and he keeps making chunk plays. Will they keep using him or will Hines push past him?

 

8) RB Zamir White, LV

What happens if FF’s #1 RB, Josh Jacobs, goes down? It’s Zamir’s game to lose.

 

9) RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA

If Kenneth Walker goes down, Dallas takes over.

 

10) WR Michael Bandy, LAC

If Keenan Allen stays out longer and longer, Bandy can be the #2 look…maybe even the #1 for Herbert due to the weak other options. ‘It’ started to happen in Week 9. ONLY if Keenan is out.

 

11) QB Malik Willis, TEN

Maybe Ryan Tannehill misses Week 10 too? If Willis gets another start, and he starts to flash in a start -- there will be a QB controversy. I suspect there won’t be, but it’s not impossible.

 

---------------------------------

 

 -- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --

  

1) RB Philip Lindsay, IND

Buried behind JT, Deon, now Wilkins-Moss. I don’t know who Lindsay pissed off to get snubbed in his career, but it continues into 2022.

 

2) WR Elijah Moore, NYJ

Since his trade demand week off, he’s played 2 games…37 snaps total…with 1 target (and no catches). He’s done.

 

3) RB Ronnie Rivers, LAR

That was fun…Week 8, he’s the man-ish, for some reason -- and then Week 9 he plays zero snaps. Makes a lot of sense. I’m so surprised the Rams suck.

 

4) WR Van Jefferson, LAR

Week 9 = 0 catches on 5 targets. Two games back from injury, zero catches for 5 targets total. He’s gonna get benched for Lance McCutcheon, I bet, soon.

 

5) RB Sony Michel, LAC

Looks like Isaiah Spiller has finally gotten a push ahead of Michel…and Josh Kelley will be back soon. Spiller then returning Kelley then Michel is the order in the handcuff sweepstakes, I believe.

 

--------------------------------

 

***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVERS(?) OPTIONS***--

 

1) Jets-DST

This defense keeps getting better and better and after a Week 10 bye…they face NE Week 11, Chicago Week 12…matchups where their defense has a better unit than the opposing offense. You could push them out Week 13 at MIN, but it’s not optimal.

Week 14 = at BUF…not great but the weather could make it a mess/slog.

Week 15 = DET…not perfect but the Jets may handle the decent DET offense…and this would be at cold, windy NYJ.

Week 16 = JAX…I like it at cold, windy NYJ.

Week 17 = at SEA…OK matchup, not great.

 

 

2) Titans-DST

You saw how good they were vs. KC on SNF…they are just so well-coached and starting to come into their own.

Week 10 hosting Denver is a start potential.

Week 11 at GB…suddenly this is an OK/good matchup.

 

 

3) Commanders-DST

Another quality effort Week 9 from this sneaky good defense. Chase Young should return soon. PHI in Week 10 is no good, but then…

Week 11 at HOU…a good start option

Week 12 = ATL…a good matchup for WSH

Week 13 = at NYG…good matchup

Week 14 = BYE

Week 15 = NYG…still a good matchup

Week 16 = at SF…not good.

Week 17 = CLE…could be OK.

 

 

4) Steelers-DST

Off the Week 9 bye, but after that, they should get T.J. Watt and the rest of their secondary for the 2nd-half of the season and have a favorable matchup with the Saints Week 10 (IF everyone is back for Pitt).

Week 11 = host Cincy with their weak O-Line and no Ja’Marr, but Burrow is amazing.

Week 12 = at Indy…this works fine

Week 13 = at ATL…OK matchup

Week 14 = v. BAL…always a war.

Week 15 = at CAR…nice

Week 16 = v. LV…workable and maybe favorable in the cold/outdoors for LV

Week 17 = at BAL…always a war, and in the cold.

 

 

5) Giants-DST

A good defense that has nice NFL metrics but weak FF scoring, so far…but they are a good unit.

Week 10 = v. HOU…good opportunity.

Week 11 = DET…maybe

Week 12 = at DAL…no

Week 13 = v. WSH…yes

Week 14 = PHI…no

Week 15 = at WSH…yes

Week 16 = at MIN…no

Week 17 = IND…should be good.

 

---------------------------------

 

 -- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --

 

1) DE Denico Autry, TEN

Has recorded at least one sack in a game in his last five games (has played 6 games this season). 7.0 sacks in 5 games in 2022…that’s good, right? Autry had 9.0 sacks for TEN last season. He now has 11.0 sacks in his last 11 games played…that’s good, right? He doesn’t necessarily come to mind when you think of the top pass rushers in the game. It happened right under my nose…my seasonal projections for him keep pulling him to ‘falling back to earth’, but he doesn’t. Big projection upgrade is coming…overdue.

 

2) LB Jack Sanborn, CHI

A UDFA we really liked from the 2022 preseason. With all the Roquan trade, he was moved to starting ILB Week 9…and responded with 7 solo tackles in his starting debut. He could be the shock IDP of the rest of the season from here. Get in on it early.

 

3) DT Javon Hargrave, PHI

He’s been quiet all year, until the last two games…5.0 sacks his last two games. He’s so good when he is on.

 

4) SAF Kerby Joseph, DET

The rookie picked off Aaron Rodgers twice and made several other good plays in this game. 10-6-5 for tackles the past 3 weeks with 4 TDs and 2 picks.

 

5) CB Kader Kohou, MIA

One of my favorite discoveries of the past few weeks…love his tape…love his production as he becomes a starter. 8-6-4-6-6 for tackles the last 5 games. Not bad out of a CB.

 

6) LB Blake Martinez, LV

Just getting up to speed the past few weeks and then 11 tackles Week 9 v. JAX. Might this be a sign of things to come for one of the better LBs of the past few years.?

 

7) LB Josh Uche, NE

4.0 sacks his last 4 games…3.0 sacks v. IND Week 9. He’s starting to perk up.

 

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OUTTRO:

 

Keeping with the heavy metal anthem theme. Maybe this should be our rally cry/theme song/video clip going forward for FF: https://youtu.be/7gGuGrqwEM8

 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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