I wanted to get this lead-in rough draft of a message going out with our top 3s/5 things report later...it's been a tough start to the fantasy season for some. I wanted to get this word out to start to consider...
A cleaned up version wi9ll be out with the top 3s/5 things later, but for now I hope this helps a few people...
We have to start, as I always do Week 2 end, by addressing the (0-2) teams among us.
My message must be heard…(0-2) teams, do not block it out. (1-1) teams will want to consider it too…especially if their loss came this week.
It was a better week across FFM-land this week with Higbee and Diontae and Kyler rising up, but there was also plenty of Parris Campbell to bring people down among others. In all, we’re tracking for a 60%-win rate week across all platforms. That’s good but not great. The majority people reading this have more teams (1-1) than anything else, but there are more (0-2s) than (2-0s) at this stage, which isn’t good/normal for us (collectively/FFM). The average is coming in around 1.2 wins and 0.8 losses = depending upon anything weird happening on MNF.
Most people are sitting .500 reading this, and of them they likely got their win this week…which feels like a relief. However, if you lost this week…it’s very unsettling. If you lost to fall to (0-2) it feels like the season is over. If you lost this week (0-2) and watched YOUR McCaffrey and/or Barkley be removed from their games with injury…you KNOW the season is over.
Fantasy people who are (0-2), lend me your ears…
It is not over.
I’m not saying that to be a cheerleader. I’ve been doing this too long, and talk and communicate with too many people every year…I know what you’re thinking, and if you’ve been with me awhile you know I deliver this message annually and you’ve benefited from it and been usually/ultimately shocked by the results of following my message. Those that are new…or new to being (0-2), you should pay close attention. I’m not cheerleading. I am delivering you a message of hope/reality that you cannot easily see because you might be too close to the situation and the frustration is real (losing is no fun) – I am more objective about your plight because I’m not directly dealing with it/your situation (but am indirectly, I feel the pain across the land on bad weeks) and I have years of experience and have seen this situation/reaction time and time again.
You should not be panicking at (0-2). Unhappy…yes/fine. Packing in the season and making grand proclamations of the season being over and wondering why you even play fantasy…now is not the time.
A simple message to you on being (0-2)… If you win next week, you’re (1-2) and the playoff qualifier ahead of you is likely (2-1)…meaning if you win next week, you will be just one game out of the playoffs with 9-10 or so weeks to play. Win next week and the world will be filled with hope -- because that’s a fact. Because ‘it’s not over’.
You’re (0-2) and maybe one of your losses was a win you left on the bench…so, you could’ve won...you just didn’t. Maybe you scored huge Week 1 or Week 2 but lost to the high scoring team of the week – like you faced Davante Adams Week 1 and not Week 2…you can’t control that. You would have liked to have faced Dak Week 1…not Week 2.
You also can’t judge the entire season because of two cards dealt in a 12-13-14 card game.
Knowing the typical FFM teams, whether you are (0-2) or (1-1) or even (2-0)…this Week 2 may have marked one of the great turning point weeks in FFM history. There are things to take heart in for many scuffling right now – I think we now know all our Kyler Murray investments are really paying off…especially all you Dynasty investors with me last year. You also now know Diontae Johnson isn’t just a solid WR play…he’s got a chance to be that WR1 taken middle rounds of the 2020 redraft…or middle rounds of the 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft.
Our 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft plan started ringing the register this week – not just a good week, but a confirmation that those guys really are ‘great’…not just ‘good’. Many of you have one or both in Dynasty. Many of you have one of both in redraft because of our valuations this preseason.
Some of us may have had our Leonard Fournette stocks re-inflated this week.
Some of us may have finally had the Darrell Henderson lottery tickets show a sign of life.
Tyler Higbee was our main TE desire for 2020 redraft…and we see that wasn’t dumb (like it felt after Week 1).
On the other hand, some of us might be scuffling with setting the right lineup or bad opponents who went off the week we played them…but, by and large, we avoided the major injury bug this week outside of Parris Campbell (who caused a few losses). We could afford to lose Campbell, big picture…but some of our league mates are staring down trouble with Saquon and CMC. Some FFMers are too, but mostly FFM teams don’t have those guys for various reasons. There’s a lot of pain going around FF right now, even with the ‘good teams’ (at this stage).
There is plenty of time to get in the race, especially when we start to hit BYE weeks and our depth starts to pay off versus others.
(0-2) sucks…losing sucks…I get it, but you have to keep your head about these things. It’s not as dark as you think. And I say this because if you start to cross over into the darkness (and some will despite my message), you’re going to accelerate your team’s descent into hell by going out and chasing what was hot last week and giving away what was cold last two weeks…just in time for whan the trend reverses.
Do you really think Derrick Henry is going to be an RB4 this season? Do you think Keelan Cole is going to score 16 TDs this season (I hope he does)?
We’ve only seen two cards in this big, large card game…we’ve got a long way to go. Your players will have better matchups, your FF team will get a lucky win, you’ll find a gem off waivers almost by accident, you’ll make a smart trade…there’s time for all these things to play out. You have to keep your head about it and act accordingly.
If you go off half-cocked and start buying high and selling low…you’ll piledrive your season into the ground. I see it all the time. You do not have to fix 50% of your starters this week. They all don’t ‘suck this year’. It’s just two weeks. If you got super lucky and won a low scoring game over an opponent who got killed with injuries…you would be (1-1) and not doing all the urgent/erratic things you feel like you need to do right now…even though it’s the same players.
It’s all about perspective…and how you react to it.
It’s not over. There’s plenty of time and plenty of injuries and twists and turns to maneuver through for everyone. We’ve only just begun.
Your mission is to win this week without haphazardly turning everything upside down in the process.
I’m here to help. Email me if you need to be talked off the ledge. (0-2) teams…hit me up and vent and let’s see how good/bad it is. My door is open. My job is to help you win…and sometimes that means I need to put you in a straight jacket for a moment for your own benefit.
I don’t want anyone to give up prematurely or walk under a dark cloud all week awaiting final execution if you lose Week 3. An (0-3) start is still just a win away from (1-3) the next week, and thus a game behind the (2-2) playoff teams with 8-9+ weeks to go. Don’t operate like your team is terrible, and you’re terrible at picking lineups, and everyone else’s teams are way better. It’s very early in this race. We need to step it up, but it’s still early/plenty of time and plenty of twists and turns ahead to capitalize on.
firstname.lastname@example.org – Put (0-2 pre-panic attack) at the end of whatever email subject line you lead with, so we start to diffuse/poke fun at the (0-2) feeling and so I know what kind of email it is to get to ASAP.
Seriously, feel free to email/vent/and let’s take a look under the hood. Give me good info on league/scoring/etc. to help set the table.
I was walking my dog this morning (Monday) trying to listen to my church’s Sunday service…but my mind was going a thousand other places thinking about Russ(ell Wilson) cooking too much against FFM teams the past two weeks among several other things. Comedically, the pastor’s message was about how to properly respond to crisis and how we tend to overreact…but all I could think about was replaying the Colts game in my mind and wondering if T.Y. Hilton is ‘shot’ like A.J. Green is.
As I was finishing my walk, I thought of real-life thing that happened…pertaining to a crisis. A story I felt was apropos to fantasy right now.
When I used to work in the corporate world, I worked a lot in the finance area. In that world, I was around a lot of other people who knew money/were good with money/could talk about things related to money like a sport…like it was all our fantasy football. In finance, the stock market is fantasy football – buy/sell/trade/predict future outcomes and ‘win’ or ‘lose’, and wins/losses were real money. We talked a lot about the market direction and how the market was treating us and what stocks we liked, etc. We really mostly talked about 401Ks, and ‘how they were doing’ because that’s where we were all invested, like most people.
In 2007-2008, the stock market was rolling along. The S&P 500 was at 1,500 levels at their best. *Note: You don’t have to know much about the stock market to understand this story. The numbers will be fairly simple to follow.
We were all happy and filled with ‘smarts’ as the market continued it’s normal rise over time, long since recovering from ‘9/11’ temporary drops/chaos in 2001. Everyone’s 401Ks were heading higher and higher at a nice steady pace in 2007 into 2008.
As 2008 unfolded, something about a ‘mortgage crisis’ popped up and people got nervous…and the media fanned the flames to cause a panic (real or imagined). All 2008 the S&P started to slide. The 1,500 level faded into 1,250 levels in August 2008…a 17% drop. Not fun but not something never seen before. Everyone felt everything would be fine, but nervousness was settling in.
The stock market faded all end of 2008 and panic really set in and the news reports were constant, and the market just kept going down and down and down with no end in sight. There was a flash crash and more panic and in March 2009 it was a constant minute-by-minute story that everyone at my work would pause and listen to the radio or look at the computer at 9:30amET to see how the market was doing. It was all everyone would talk about in the finance departments. The S&P hit 680 levels in March 2009, at the peak of panic…down 55% from like a year and a half prior. It happened so fast…half your 401K ‘gone’.
In the days the market hit the lows in March 2009, it was a daily gut check – what if it went to zero? People had lost half+ of their 401Ks…what if they lost the other half? I remember thinking…if this is the end of the world and my little 401K is going to zero…it’s not going to matter because the world will be ending. Then I thought it’s silly to think the world is ending because of some bad news reports when basic commerce was still taking place and nothing had changed with most companies…just the mood had changed (and the news was pushing chaos as they do). Things may be due a hit but not chopped in half. Warren Buffett started buying, so I started trying to get in the bargain hunting.
I remember a guy who was a top salesman at our company. He always talked of being close to retirement (early 50s). He had done really well for himself. He bragged about being near a million dollars saved in his 401K back in 2007-2008. He would lecture us on how we all needed to do money things. We were all envious of him. We could only dream of logging the time and saving he had. He was our hero.
I happened to be working with him the week in 2009 when everything really dropped in the market. I talked to him to see what/how he was doing, if he had any pearls of financial wisdom. I went into his office, and he looked like a wreck. He told me his $1M 401K levels had dropped to like the $400K area. I asked him how he was playing the market/what he was doing. He told me he moved all his 401K balance to cash/out of the market that week…that the stock market was for sucker’s and you couldn’t win with the untrustworthy system. He proclaimed to all of us that we should do the same…to never bet in the stock market again or you’d get screwed. I didn’t take his advice. I thought it seemed everything was over panicked, and I just held to what I had and kept putting in via my auto deductions every week like normal.
You know where this is going…
The market started to firm up soon after the brief chaos. People absorbed the bad news and thought their way through it and started bargain hunting, taking advantage of people panicking. By the end of 2009, just nine months later from the low-lows, the S&P 500 recovered some/moved from 680 level to 1,100…a 61% jump. As it was rising, I would see that salesperson from time-to-time and as we all started feeling better he would still say he was staying out of the market and made proclamations that the market was evil/a hoax and he was never getting in it still and told us to get out of the market, that it would soon crash again.
Most of us didn’t have much to begin with, so we just stayed the course in our 401Ks. He never did get back in…mad at the market for what it did to him. He rode it high and was a 401K king (on paper) for years and was close to retiring early in 2008.
The S&P is at 3,400 levels now. Had that person just held on, and didn’t panic…his $1M in 2007-2008 that went to $400K in March 2009, would now be worth $2.3M+. He never got back in, he still predicts a crash coming, and he is still working for my old company. His life forever changed by getting caught in a very real emotion of ‘losing it all’ and making a rash decision and never changing with the times on it.
I always think about him/his decision in a lot of things in life – if we just knew what was going to be around the corner, we wouldn’t act/react the way we do a lot of the time. We tend to be reactionary…over reactionary…and we start ‘doing something’ to react to the moment, because we’re ‘doers’.
Sometimes, the moment calls for holding steady…sometimes the moment calls for investing/buying low into the selling and panic. Fantasy Football is a LOT like the stock market…I’ve been in both worlds. Today, (0-2) teams, is not the time to sell your entire 401K and swear off the market forever to punish it for not doing what you wanted it to do.
Be the Nic Cage of this scene from the end of ‘Lords of War’, possibly one of the greatest single scenes at the end of a movie I’ve ever seen… https://youtu.be/gGZAgmctqE4
…that knock at the door – it’s your Week 3 win coming to save the day. Let’s win Week 3 and get back on track and all will be right with the world.