Everyone knows the NFC East is a mess this season. I believe there is value in a future bet on the Washington Football Team (to accrue value in the short term and possibly long term) to win the division.
First things first, I believe the Washington Football team is currently underrated. (Relative to the rest of the teams in the division). You may be thinking WFT underrated...WTF? They are 1-4, but the losses are to teams that are all above currently above .500 (combined 11-5 after removing the 4 wins vs WAS) and they have been playing without their best OL - B. Scherff who will likely return soon. It’s easy to kick them coming off a 30-10 loss to the Rams but WFT did lead 7-6 and were competitive before K.Allen got knocked out of the game. (Trailed by 10 at halftime).
Rain the entire 2nd half and the Rams insane success rushing the passer (8 sacks, 4 by A.Donald) left a pretty sad looking box score. Alex Smith barely missed a deep ball that could have been a TD to McLaurin in the 2nd half. I’m willing to chalk it up to a game where they were dominated, rather than WAS being a team that is hopeless. I like that they can bring a pass rush and I believe the offense can be better when not playing a dominant DL which they don’t have to worry about until early DEC. Here is a look at the Football Team’s upcoming schedule...then I’ll digress…
@NYG, DAL, BYE, NYG, @DET, CIN
Let’s set the stage with the current odds and standings…
DAL 2-3 NFC (2-2) DIV (1-0)
PHI 1-3-1 NFC (1-2) DIV (0-1)
WAS 1-4 NFC (1-2) DIV (1-0)
NYG 0-5 NFC (0-4) DIV (0-1)
I listed the division and NFC records because those are the tie breakers, so they are obviously very meaningful when we have teams bunched up in the standings. It strikes me that the current odds are taking into account the team records, the pre-season expectation for each team...the hidden value to me is that WAS has a division win in their pocket against a non-NYG opponent.
In the next month, I believe the schedule sets up nicely for the Football Team to find themselves in first place without anything I would consider a big stretch.
As I listed above, WAS plays the Giants twice in the next three weeks along with a home game against DAL. Rivera has been talking for the last 2 weeks about this stretch that is coming up so I think the team will be focused. This week’s game @NYG opened at WAS +3.5 and has already been bet down to +3. Meanwhile the Cowboys are 2.5 underdogs to ARI. The Eagles play Baltimore but then get the “Giants twice in 3 games” treatment. Here is a look at all of the upcoming schedules…
WAS - @NYG, DAL, BYE, NYG, @DET, CIN
DAL - ARI, @WAS, @PHI, PIT, @MIN, WAS
PHI - BAL, NYG, DAL, @NYG, @CLE, SEA
NYG - WAS, @PHI, TB, @WAS, PHI, @CIN
The teams in this division are going to play each other a lot over the next month+...let’s look at the upcoming schedule with the head to head games removed..
WAS - @DET, CIN, PIT, SF
DAL - ARI,PIT,@MIN,BAL
PHI - BAL,@CLE, SEA, GB
NYG - TB,@CIN, @SEA, ARI
If I had to bet on a team to be 2-2 in the next 4 non-division games, I’m taking WAS and it’s not close.
So I feel like we have a few chances...if the Football Team wins the next 2 games (@NYG, DAL) then they are in total control (with a 3-0) division record) and our +900 has great equity. If they split the next two games, then we are still in the game because they can make up ground based on the out of division games between now and early Dec. (if you think they can’t win either of the next 2, you really should have stopped reading by now)
I feel like WAS should be (+400/+500) to win the division given that they have a win over the Eagles already and I don’t think they will be big underdogs when they host Dallas in 2 weeks. The Cowboys being priced as an odds-on favorite is likely based on liability that has been built up in the division futures market over months and not adjusting to the current standings.
As always, my strategy with future bets is to place them in small pieces (ie. If you want to bet $50, bet $20,$20 and $10) so we have the option to not only cash out or let it ride...but the option to cash out a portion and let the rest ride.
As always, do some shopping as +900 is the lowest I’ve seen...Fanduel
has +950 and BetMGM and William Hill in RI have +1000.
Good luck with your bets...win some money or have fun trying!