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Can I Beat The Stock Market With Weekly Football Betting (2019)? *Week 12

Date:
November 24, 2019

Can I Beat The Stock Market With Weekly Football Betting (2019)? *Week 12

 

For weekly accounting, I’m going to guess or project my wins/losses on the over/under win totals and player output props, etc., to try to give myself and idea where I’m at. You’ll see what I mean below…

 

**Intro (you may have already read): A new segment for 2019. I am going to start out with a fictitious $6,000 bankroll and bet it all on football all season and see how I do.

I will bet $100 per week on games…whether that’s all on one or $10 on a bunch or I just do nothing. That will be $1,700 of my $6K budget – I will not go over $100 betting games each week. Discipline! *I’ll charge myself a 10% ‘vig’/fee on each bet just to keep it simple.

A $1,300 slice of my bankroll, I am putting on NFL over/under win totals for the season. I do a lot better in this area, and it is a big part of what I do each year. I’ll use September 2019 pre-Sunday values to play them.

The biggest slice, because it’s the best return I usually have – player prop bets on their season. I will spend $2,000 of my $6K on those.

The S&P 500 is at 2,979 today. We’ll see where it is at by end of Week 17 of the NFL season compared to my football wager returns.

Every week we’ll tally up our winnings/losing and see how we are faring when I place/report out my next week’s game bets. **

 

 

Player Prop Bets (all 10% vig to bet)

 -- $1,100 (to win $1K + original bet, same for all of them) on Baker Mayfield OVER 31.5 TD passes this season.

Week 1 = Baker has 1 TD pass, but he should’ve had 2 in this ‘bad game’ for him. I feel fine with this bet…especially when he drops 3-4+ TDs on the Jets this week. WIN PROJECTED +$1,000.

Week 2 = Now, this is looking dicey. I think I’m good, but to be fair I’m moving to a loss (no push option available).

Week 3 = Looking worse and worse, right now. Counting as a LOSS until further notice. If he can hit a 3 TD game and pop 4-5 TD passes the next two weeks, I can start to have hope with the easier schedule later that this catches up/pays off. But for now we’ll count as a loss.

Week 4 = This is slipping away. The schedule is friendly in the 2nd-half, but not looking good so far. A LOSS we have to count as.

Week 5 = This has fallen to a full-scale mess. He needs 28 TDs his next 11 games, and that ain’t happening. A sure LOSS here now. I think he’ll have a hot last-third of the season but too late. Book the LOSS.

Week 6 = Pretty dead now. LOSS.

Week 7 = We’re beyond dead here, BUT after this week…9 games…many favorable matchups. If he gets 2 TDs vs. NE (unlikely, but just dream with me for a moment…), he’d need 25 TDs the following 9 games…2.8 per game. Pretty daunting, but they throw a lot…and if he could get a crazy 5-6 TD game in soon…maybe this gets a breath of life. Probably not, but I like to dream.

Week 8 = Pretty much toast. LOSS.

Week 9 = Beyond done. LOSS

Week 10 = Had 3 TD passes, but one reversed to just short…so only 2 TDs. Doesn’t really matter. LOSS.

Week 11 = 2 TD passes…he’s heating up but it’s too late. LOSS.

=================

 -- $1,100 (to win $1K) on Allen Robinson OVER 900 receiving yards this season

Week 1 = This is going to be easy. WIN PROJECTED +$1,000

Week 2 = Maybe his worst matchup of the season and did OK. I’m ahead of the pace and feel fine here.

Week 3 = On a pace for 1,083 yards right now. I still think this looks good.

Week 4 = On pace for 1,120 yards right now. Chase Daniel doesn’t scare me, but it doesn’t make me feel great. Still a WIN right now.

Week 5 = 377 yards in the books…532 yards/11 games to go/48.4 per game. I feel good here. Booking as a WIN, still.

Week 6 = BYE, all is well still.

Week 7 = On a pace for 1,237 yards this season…426 yards away with 10 games left. We’re good if he stays healthy. May have this wrapped by Week 11.

Week 8 = On pace for 1,202 yards. Has 526 in the books already…375 to go with 9 games left, a little over 40 yards a game needed to average.

Week 9 = 6 yards in Week 9…really? On a pace for 1,064…so all good but my big cushion just took a hit. Still a WIN for now.

Week 10 = ARob is now at 618 yards for the season…282 yards to go with 7 games left…40.3 yards per game. Hoping I can lock this in by Week 14 end. WIN.

Week 11 = 15 yards v. Jalen Ramsey…expected. Doesn’t help me. 633 yards this season…267 to go with 6 games left, 44.5 yards per game needed. I can get close to locking this in vs. NYG and DET the next two weeks.

=================

 -- $770 (to win $700) on Kyler Murray OVER 21.5 passing TDs this season.

Week 1 = Two of them booked last week, should’ve been 3-4. This one is in the bag as long as he stays healthy. WIN PROJECTED +$700

Week 2 = He shoulda had 1-4 TD passes here. I’m positive Murray will crush this number. I’m counting this in the win column right now.

Week 3 = He’s on pace for 21.3 pass TDs for the season but he’s so close to just starting to drop 3-4 TD passes in games that I believe this one is going to be a WIN still. I think I might get this by Week 10-11 end.

Week 4 = He’s now on a pace for 16 TD passes but should be on a pace for 25+. So close. I’ll move this to a PUSH for now until we get a good game to get the pace back. I know I cannot push this but I’m not taking the loss on it yet. I’ll just move the win away.

Week 5 = He’s in the red zone a thousand times a game and cannot buy a pass TD of late. I still think I’m getting this. I need 17.5 TDs/11 games…1.6 pass TDs per game. At the pace he’s working the red zone/goal line, I can get this. I’ll keep this a PUSH for now, even though I can’t push it…I don’t want to book as a win or loss for now.

Week 6 = 3 TD passes Week 6, which makes me feel a lot better. I think he’s going to blow this away – even though he’s slightly behind pace now. I’m moving to a WIN.

Week 7 = Another goose egg. Good game, but no TD shots. He gets them in bunches. 7 pass TDs right now, 15 needed the next 9 games. 1.7 per game. Very doable, I think it’s likely with his schedule and the way the offense is going even with the SF games. Still counting as a WIN but getting nervous.

Week 8 = Another zero TD pass game.

Week 9 = 2 TD passes against SF on TNF breathes life back in. 9 TD passes this season, I need 13 more with 7 games left…do-able, but odds are against – unless he drops 3 of them on Tampa Bay Week 10. Counting as a fragile/sketchy WIN because I think the TDs are coming in bunches ahead.

Week 10 = 3 TD passes…thank you. 12 TD passes on the season. I need 10 passing TDs the final 6 games. Not a lock but I think we’re getting there with higher-level Kyler. Still counting as a WIN.

Week 11 = Two more TD passes. 14 TDs on the season…8 TDs the next 5 games needed for the win. It’s gonna be tight. WIN…but very sketchy.

 

Week 1 TALLY = +2,700 net profit on this group…going to win them all.

Week 2 TALLY = I’m going to win net $700 total here by year’s end.

Week 3 TALLY = Same as last week. No change.

Week 4 TALLY = Moving to -$100 net for now. 

Week 5 TALLY = Same as last week…-$100. I need Kyler to make a move to get me to the positive here.

WEEK 6 TALLY = +$600 net projected here.

WEEK 7 TALLY = +$600 net projected here.

WEEK 8 TALLY = +$600 net projected here.

WEEK 9 TALLY = +$600 net projected here.

WEEK 10 TALLY = +$600 net projected here.

WEEK 11 TALLY = +$600 net projected here.

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

My NFL win total bets (Bovada)…

$600 (to win $990) on Denver OVER 8.0 wins this season (Bovada is giving three diff. win totals to bet with varying odds, so I’m taking this highest one on the board/greatest potential return).

Week 1 = I’m worried. I think 8 wins is reasonable, but I’ll go PUSH here right now.

Week 2 = That hurt. Shoulda won. I’m moving this to a LOSS now, but I think I can still get it even if they lose this week.

Week 3 = Played OK but lost again. I keep this as a LOSS, but if they can win this week I’d have some signs of life…but at the expense of my Jags bet.

Week 4 = Well, this one just died, I think. Chubb gone and 0-4. I am hopeful DEN wins their next two and starts to get up off the mat…but it doesn’t look good at all.

Week 5 = A sign of life…their first win. If they win this week, then it’s time to reevaluate. For now, count as a LOSS.

Week 6 = Two in a row, we’ve got a shot here…

Week 7 = Man, I needed that KC win. I still think 8.0 is possible but it’s a long-shot look -- this has to be counted as a LOSS. Must win this week.

Week 8 = Denver can’t stop losing games they had won. A LOSS for sure.

Week 9 = Denver gets to 3-5 with a win over CLE, but this still has to be considered a LOSS…not dead yet, but mostly dead.

Week 10 = Denver on BYE. Still a LOSS to further notice.

Week 11 = Can I get ‘shoulda won’ games to count? Can I get ‘lost on the last play’ games to count? I would have this bet won just about if so. But, instead, LOSS.

==========================

*$440 (to win $400) on the Jets UNDER 7.5 wins this season.*

Week 1 = Piece of cake. WIN PROJECTED +$400

Week 2 = In the bag.

Week 3 = In the bag.

Week 4 = So far, so good.

Week 5 = So far, so good…but an easy schedule 2nd-half. They still suck, though.

Week 6 = Assuming they lose to NE this week, they will be 1-5…and have to go 7-3 to the finish beat me. Not happening. WIN.

Week 7 = Crushed by NE. The schedule is cake, but they can’t go 7-3 the next 10 games…not with that O-Line. WIN.

Week 8 = Beaten by the Jags, and that was clincher for me, in a sense. They’d have to go 7-2 the rest of the way to beat me. A WIN.

Week 9 = Beaten by Miami, thank you! They have to go 7-1 the rest of the season to beat me. Not happening. WIN.

Week 10 = Beat the Giants, but not going 6-1 from here to beat me. WIN.

Week 11 = Two game win streak…3 wins on the season…BREAK THEM UP!!! They need to win five of the last 6 to beat me…maybe they’ll beat Baltimore Week 15? Oakland can deliver the knockout punch for me this week. WIN

==========================

*$200 (to win $320) on Arizona OVER 6.0 wins this season.*

Week 1 = I feel better here, but I’ll say PUSH for now.

Week 2 = I feel good here, but I’ll move to a PUSH for now.

Week 3 = Starting to look shakier. I’ll go PUSH one more week, if they lose this week, I’ll move to the loss column.

Week 4 = I’ll put as a LOSS, but I like the next 3 weeks to get back into the chase.

Week 5 = Win #1 this week. If they beat ATL Week 6…then I think I put back into the PUSH or WIN column. I’ll count as a LOSS right now.

Week 6 = Win #2 this week with Week 7 looking promising, I think we’re going to get here for a win, but I’ll go PUSH for now.

Week 7 = They are 3-3-1 now, we’re halfway home with more than half the season left. They’re gonna get TB and PIT (at ARI)…I just need one more win for a push and another for the outright win. I think they get to 6 wins for sure, but #7 is shaky. Let’s keep calling it a PUSH for now until they beat a real team.

Week 8 = Loss to the Saints, as expected. Still calling a PUSH.

Week 9 = Loss to the 49ers, as expected, but a promising loss. They need 3 wins to push, and they should be favored in 2-3 more games this season. If they beat TB on the road Week 10…I feel great about at least a push. Keeping as a PUSH for now. 

Week 10 = Dammit. The TB game was a ‘win’, it had to be…and now I’ll be lucky to get to the 6 wins the final 6 games. I see 2-3 wins. If I lose this, it will be my worst year with win total over/unders ever…if I lose this and Jacksonville. Put as a PUSH for one more week, but it’s because I’m delusional.

Week 11 = Unreal…can I seriously get ‘shoulda won’ games to count? The only team that has coughed up more ‘shoulda won’ games than Arizona is Denver. I need three wins in their last 5…do-able, but very shaky. I’m going PUSH one more week, because if they win Week 13…hosting LAR, I think I’m good. If they lose, I’ll start booking the loss.

==========================

*$60 (to win $50) on Jacksonville OVER 8.0 wins this season.* **Love the Jags but hate the numbers this has become since Luck went out.

Week 1 = I lost most of my hope here with Foles going down, but the injury list for Week 2 looks terrible for a bounce back. I’m likely done here. -$60.

Week 2 = Had HOU beat and couldn’t convert the 2-point conversion. Looks like this one might be a loss, but I’ll say PUSH because I think they’ll win Week 3 and get back on track to win the division.

Week 3 = Like I said…a win last week and things will look brighter. They could lose this week and still be OK, but if they go to Denver and beat them – I am gaining confidence. I’m keeping as a PUSH for now.

Week 4 = Looking better and better. I think they are headed to 9+ wins still.

Week 5 = Man, they could be 3-2/4-1 right now. I still like this outlook. We see 8-9-10 wins still. I am counting as a WIN, because I think we’ll win it.

Week 6 = Tough loss to NO at home last week. Schedule gets much easier here. I am moving to a PUSH for now.

Week 7 = Now 3-4 and should beat NYJ to get to 4-4 and then I need 4 wins in the 2nd-half to push. There are 4-5 easy games remaining and the rest are HOU and IND 2x. I think the PUSH is good but getting to 9 wins doesn’t look in the bag at all. If they beat HOU Week 9, I might believe…but I’m more worried they lose to NYJ this week. Keep a PUSH.

Week 8 = Nice win, now 4-4. With their schedule, they are winning 8 games…the question is – can they get to 9 wins. I think so, but let’s hold as a PUSH right now. They beat Houston this week, and I’m winning this small bet.

Week 9 = My big opportunity…Jags to beat HOU, and they got crushed. Keeping a PUSH because the schedule ahead is so favorable, but one more slip up and I have to move to a loss.

Week 10 = Jags on a BYE so holding in with a PUSH. Easy schedule coming.

Week 11 = Jags came off a BYE and fell flat. They need 4 wins in their final 6 games, and the schedule may allow it, but I’ll just go LOSS here and maybe be surprised later.

--------------------------------------

TALLY for all four of my over/under win total bets…

WEEK 2 TALLY: I’m netting -$200 in my estimation today.

WEEK 3 TALLY: Same as last week but looking darker/could be rough after Week 4.

WEEK 4 TALLY: I’m netting a -$340 loss

WEEK 5 TALLY: Same as last week.

WEEK 6 TALLY: I’m netting -$300 loss for now. Another Arizona win and we might be heading positive the rest of the way.

WEEK 7 TALLY: I’m netting -$300 loss for now. An Arizona win over a winning record team ahead -- and we might be heading positive here the rest of the way.

WEEK 8 TALLY: Keeping the -$300 net for now.

WEEK 9 TALLY: Keeping the -$300 net for now.

WEEK 10 TALLY: Keeping the -$300 net for now. But about to die with Arizona, potentially.

WEEK 11 TALLY: Moving JAX to a loss -$360 net.

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Week 1 Bets (all 10% vig)…

$80 on Denver (even) over Oakland (placed/wrote before AB went nuts this week) *LOST hardcore. -$88 on the loss.

$20 on Buffalo (+3.0) over the Jets *I snuck out with this one. WIN +$38

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 1: -$50

==========================

Week 2 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

 

$40 = PIT -3.5 over SEA (LOSS)

$10 = ARI +13.5 over BAL (WIN)

$10 = SF +1.0 over CIN (WIN)

$10 = IND +3.0 over TEN (WIN)

$10 = DET +2.0 over LAC (WIN)

$10 = ATL +1.5 over PHI (WIN)

$10 = NO +2.0 over LAR (LOSS)

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 2: -$10…five wins, two losses but they cancelled on amounts wagered -- leaving me losing the 10% vig. Damn Brees and Ben getting hurt!!!! Now, -$76 for the season here.

==========================

Week 3 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

 

$50 = ARI +2.5 (I played this right out of the gates before the line started moving the other way hard late in the week).

$30 = LAR -3.0 over CLE

$10 = CHI -4.0 over WAS

$10 = CAR +2.5 (when the line swung five points…I took a small hedge that I could land within the five points for a double dip)

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 3: (9-4 record ATS YTD) -$10 net this week (basically, all bets cancelled and lost the vig)…I have a great winning percentage but I keep losing my main bets and wiping out all the wins!!!

==========================

Week 4 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

 

$30 = KC -6.5 over DET (loss)

$30 = MIN +2.5 over CHI (loss)

$20 = OAK +7.0 over IND (win)

$10 = WAS +3.0 over NYG (loss)

$10 = NE -7.0 over BUF (loss)

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 4: (10-8 ATS YTD on games I played) -$70 with losses and vig. This week, and -$156 for the season on individual bets despite the winning record.

==========================

Week 5 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

 

$50 = MIN (-5.0) over NYG (win)

$20 = ARI (+3.0) over CIN (win)

$10 = GB (+3.5) over DAL (win)

$10 = SF (-3.5) over CLE (win)

$10 = NE (-15.5) over WAS (win)

$10 = DEN (+6.5) over LAC (win)

$10 = GB-DAL UNDER 47.5 (loss)

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 5: (16-8 ATS YTD on games I played)…67%!!!! …I only went 6-0 on the game ATS bets this week, that’s all. Lost the stupid O/U, that I rarely play…and got beat. Never again…until the next hunch. Won $110 and lost $10 on the O/U bet and $11 on vigs…net +$89 this week.

=================================

Week 6 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

 

$20 = NE (-17.0) over NYG (already, win)

$20 = KC (-4.0) over HOU (loss)

$20 = TEN (+2.0) over DEN (loss)

$10 = DAL (-7.0) over NYJ (loss)

$10 = LAR (-3.0) over SF (loss)

$10 = CLE (+1.5) over SEA (loss)

$10 = CAR (-2.0) over TB (win)

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 6: (18-13 ATS YTD on games I played…58%) 2-5 week, a killer. -$80 net loss. -$147 for the season.

===========================

Week 7 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

 

$30 = JAX (-4.0) over CIN (win)

$20 = SF (-9.5) over WAS (loss)

$20 = IND (-1.0) over HOU (win)

$20 = LAR -3.0) over ATL (win)

$10 = PHI (-2.5) over DAL (loss)

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 7: (21-15 ATS YTD on games I played…58%) 3-2 week with good weighting on the bets. +$30 net gain (after the $10 vig) and we whittle down to -$117 for the season.

 

===========================

Week 8 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

 

$150 = SEA (-3.5) over ATL (win)

*This will be easy to track and going for the gold to get back to positive on what I said was the bet of the week all week, before the Matt Ryan thing became official (because I knew he would not play).

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 8: (22-15 ATS YTD on games I played…59.4%) a 1-0 week with a big bet to swing me positive for the season. +$135 net gain (after the $15 vig) this week. Now, +$18 net for the season.

==============================

 

Week 9 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

 

$50 = JAX (+1.5) over HOU (loss)

$50 = CAR (-3.5) over TEN (win)

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 9: (23-16 ATS YTD on games I played…59.0%) a 1-1 week with a big getting me nowhere by losing the $10 vig. Now, +$8 net for the season.

 

================================

Week 10 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

 

$20 = ARI (+4.5) over TB (WIN)

$20 = SF (-6.0) over SEA (LOSS)

$20 = LAR (-4.0) over PIT (LOSS)

$20 = CHI (-3.0) over DET *Bet mid-week, banking on Stafford out, but OK if not (WIN)

$20 = KC (-4.0) over TEN *Got in early banking on Mahomes and not caring if MMoore (LOSS)

$20 = IND (-10.0) over MIA (LOSS)

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 10: (25-20 ATS YTD on games I played…55.0%) a 2-4 week sucks. Net loss -$52. Now, -$44 net for the season.

 

==============================

 

Week 11 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

 

$40 = MIA (+7.0) over BUF (LOSS)

$50 = ARI (+10.5) over SF (WIN)

$10 = CIN (+12.5) over OAK…late-breaking line jump, I’ll take a taste (WIN)

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 11: (27-21 ATS YTD on games I played…56.3%) a 2-1 week. Net gain +$10 this week. Now, -$34 net for the season.

 

================================

 

Week 12 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

*I’m going to do something a little different in Week 12 – I’m going to bet a lot more than I should. I believe in a lot of games this week, and a few I think I can turn the season on. I’m going to ‘borrow’ on margin like in stock market trading. I’m going to show my conviction in Week 12 and either secure a big season in my tracking or ensure a terrible handicapping season.

No time to be passive when you think you got something super strong.

I’m not betting my usual $100 or a little over this week. I’m betting $1,000 this week for the contest (to mimic games I’m really playing…this is not just for the contest/gimmick here).

 

$200 = ATL (-4.5) over TB

$200 = ATL (-4.0) over TB

$200 = ATL (-3.5) over TB

*The line kept falling, so I kept betting.

 

$300 = BAL (-3.0) over LAR

 

$200 = DET (-3.5) over WAS

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 12: ?

 

================================

 

Week 1 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 1 (projected + real) = +$3,274 profit or a 54.7% gain

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 3,007 so far…a 0.9% gain in our judgement period.

 

Week 2 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 2 (projected + real) = +$424 profit or a 7.1% gain projected.

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 2,992 so far…a 0.4% gain in our judgement period.

 

Week 3 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 3 (projected + real) = +$414 profit or a 6.9% gain projected.

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 2,962 so far…a -0.1% decline in our judgement period.

 

Week 4 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 4 (projected + real) = -$606 loss or a 10.1% loss projected.

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 2,952 so far…a -0.1% decline in our judgement period.

 

Week 5 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 5 (projected + real) =  -$517 loss or an -8.6% loss projected.

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 2,970 so far…a -0.0% decline in our judgement period.

 

Week 6 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 6 (projected + real) = +$153 profit or an +0.3% gain projected.

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 2,986 so far…a +0.0% decline in our judgement period.

 

Week 7 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 7 (projected + real) = +$183 profit or an +3.5% gain projected.

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 3,022 so far…a +1.4% gain in our judgement period.

 

Week 8 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 8 (projected + real) = +$318 profit or an +5.3% gain projected.

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 3,067 so far…a +3.0% gain in our judgement period.

 

Week 9 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 9 (projected + real) = +$308 profit or an +5.1% gain projected.

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 3,093 so far…a +3.8% gain in our judgement period.

 

Week 10 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 10 (projected + real) = +$256 profit or an +4.3% gain projected.

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 3,120 so far…a +4.7% gain in our judgement period. Gotta love this stock market!!!

 

Week 11 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 11 (projected + real) = +$206 profit or an +3.4% gain projected.

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 3,110 so far…a +4.4% gain in our judgement period. Gotta love this stock market!!!

 

Good luck on all your betting this season!!



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>