Can I Beat The Stock Market With Weekly Football Betting (2019)? *Week 2
For Week 1 accounting, I’m going to guess or project my wins/losses on the over/under win totals and player output props, etc., to try to give myself and idea where I’m at. You’ll see what I mean below…
** Intro (you may have already read): A new segment for 2019. I am going to start out with a fictitious $5,000 bankroll and bet it all on football all season and see how I do.
I will bet $100 per week on games…whether that’s all on one or $10 on a bunch or I just do nothing. That will be $1,700 of my $5K budget – I will not go over $100 betting games each week. Discipline! *I’ll charge myself a 10% ‘vig’/fee on each bet just to keep it simple.
A $1,300 slice of my bankroll, I am putting on NFL over/under win totals for the season. I do a lot better in this area, and it is a big part of what I do each year. I’ll use September 2019 pre-Sunday values to play them.
The biggest slice, because it’s the best return I usually have – player prop bets on their season. I will spend $2,000 of my $5K on those.
The S&P 500 is at 2,979 today. We’ll see where it is at by end of Week 17 of the NFL season compared to my football wager returns.
Every week we’ll tally up our winnings/losing and see how we are faring when I place/report out my next week’s game bets. **
Player Prop Bets (all 10% vig to bet)
-- $1,100 (to win $1K + original bet, same for all of them) on Baker Mayfield OVER 31.5 TD passes this season.
Week 1 = Baker has 1 TD pass, but he should’ve had 2 in this ‘bad game’ for him. I feel fine with this bet…specially when he drops 3-4+ TDs on the Jets this week. WIN PROJECTED +$1,000.
-- $1,100 (to win $1K) on Allen Robinson OVER 900 receiving yards this season (I did this way before THU night game…I took a lot of stock in ARob for months on this line)
Week 1 = This is going to be easy. WIN PROJECTED +$1,000
-- $770 (to win $700) on Kyler Murray OVER 21.5 passing TDs this season.
Week 1 = Two of them booked last week, should’ve been 3-4. This one is in the bag as long as he stays healthy. WIN PROJECTED +$700
Week 1 TALLY = I’m going to win $2,700 total here by year’s end.
My NFL win total bets (Bovada)…
$600 (to win $990) on Denver OVER 8.0 wins this season (Bovada is giving three diff. win totals to bet with varying odds, so I’m taking this highest one on the board/greatest potential return).
Week 1 = I’m worried. I think 8 wins is reasonable, but I’ll go PUSH here right now.
$440 (to win $400) on the Jets UNDER 7.5 wins this season.
Week 1 = Piece of cake. WIN PROJECTED +$400
$200 (to win $320) on Arizona OVER 6.0 wins this season.
Week 1 = I feel better here, but I’ll say push for now.
$60 (to win $50) on Jacksonville OVER 8.0 wins this season. *Love the Jags but hate the numbers this has become since Luck went out.
Week 1 = I lost most of my hope here with Foles going down, but the injury list for Week 2 looks terrible for a bounce back. I’m likely done here. -$60.
WEEK 2 TALLY: I’m netting +$340
Week 1 Bets (all 10% vig)…
$80 on Denver (even) over Oakland (placed/wrote before AB went nuts this week) *LOST hardcore. -$88 on the loss.
$20 on Buffalo (+3.0) over the Jets *I snuck out with this one. WIN +$22
Total weekly bet accounting Week 1: -$66
Week 2 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…
$40 = PIT -3.5 over SEA
$10 = ARI +13.5 over BAL
$10 = SF +1.0 over CIN
$10 = IND +3.0 over TEN
$10 = DET +2.0 over LAC
$10 = ATL +1.5 over PHI
$10 = NO +2.0 over LAR
TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 1 (projected + real) = +$3,274 profit or a 54.7% gain
The S&P has gone from 2979 to 3,007 so far…a 0.9% gain in our judgement period.