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Can I Beat The Stock Market With Weekly Football Betting (2019)? *Week 6

Date:
October 13, 2019

Can I Beat The Stock Market With Weekly Football Betting (2019)? *Week 6

 

For weekly accounting, I’m going to guess or project my wins/losses on the over/under win totals and player output props, etc., to try to give myself and idea where I’m at. You’ll see what I mean below…

 

**Intro (you may have already read): A new segment for 2019. I am going to start out with a fictitious $6,000 bankroll and bet it all on football all season and see how I do.

I will bet $100 per week on games…whether that’s all on one or $10 on a bunch or I just do nothing. That will be $1,700 of my $6K budget – I will not go over $100 betting games each week. Discipline! *I’ll charge myself a 10% ‘vig’/fee on each bet just to keep it simple.

A $1,300 slice of my bankroll, I am putting on NFL over/under win totals for the season. I do a lot better in this area, and it is a big part of what I do each year. I’ll use September 2019 pre-Sunday values to play them.

The biggest slice, because it’s the best return I usually have – player prop bets on their season. I will spend $2,000 of my $6K on those.

The S&P 500 is at 2,979 today. We’ll see where it is at by end of Week 17 of the NFL season compared to my football wager returns.

Every week we’ll tally up our winnings/losing and see how we are faring when I place/report out my next week’s game bets. **

 

 

Player Prop Bets (all 10% vig to bet)

 -- $1,100 (to win $1K + original bet, same for all of them) on Baker Mayfield OVER 31.5 TD passes this season.

Week 1 = Baker has 1 TD pass, but he should’ve had 2 in this ‘bad game’ for him. I feel fine with this bet…especially when he drops 3-4+ TDs on the Jets this week. WIN PROJECTED +$1,000.

Week 2 = Now, this is looking dicey. I think I’m good, but to be fair I’m moving to a loss (no push option available).

Week 3 = Looking worse and worse, right now. Counting as a LOSS until further notice. If he can hit a 3 TD game and pop 4-5 TD passes the next two weeks, I can start to have hope with the easier schedule later that this catches up/pays off. But for now we’ll count as a loss.

Week 4 = This is slipping away. The schedule is friendly in the 2nd-half, but not looking good so far. A LOSS we have to count as.

Week 5 = This has fallen to a full-scale mess. He needs 28 TDs his next 11 games, and that ain’t happening. A sure LOSS here now. I think he’ll have a hot last-third of the season but too late. Book the LOSS.

=================

 -- $1,100 (to win $1K) on Allen Robinson OVER 900 receiving yards this season

Week 1 = This is going to be easy. WIN PROJECTED +$1,000

Week 2 = Maybe his worst matchup of the season and did OK. I’m ahead of the pace and feel fine here.

Week 3 = On a pace for 1,083 yards right now. I still think this looks good.

Week 4 = On pace for 1,120 yards right now. Chase Daniel doesn’t scare me, but it doesn’t make me feel great. Still a WIN right now.

Week 5 = 377 yards in the books…532 yards/11 games to go/48.4 per game. I feel good here. Booking as a WIN, still.

=================

 -- $770 (to win $700) on Kyler Murray OVER 21.5 passing TDs this season.

Week 1 = Two of them booked last week, should’ve been 3-4. This one is in the bag as long as he stays healthy. WIN PROJECTED +$700

Week 2 = He shoulda had 1-4 TD passes here. I’m positive Murray will crush this number. I’m counting this in the win column right now.

Week 3 = He’s on pace for 21.3 pass TDs for the season but he’s so close to just starting to drop 3-4 TD passes in games that I believe this one is going to be a WIN still. I think I might get this by Week 10-11 end.

Week 4 = He’s now on a pace for 16 TD passes but should be on a pace for 25+. So close. I’ll move this to a PUSH for now until we get a good game to get the pace back. I know I cannot push this but I’m not taking the loss on it yet. I’ll just move the win away.

Week 5 = He’s in the red zone a thousand times a game and cannot buy a pass TD of late. I still think I’m getting this. I need 17.5 TDs/11 games…1.6 pass TDs per game. At the pace he’s working the red zone/goal line, I can get this. I’ll keep this a PUSH for now, even though I can’t push it…I don’t want to book as a win or loss for now.

 

Week 1 TALLY = +2,700 net profit on this group…going to win them all.

Week 2 TALLY = I’m going to win net $700 total here by year’s end.

Week 3 TALLY = Same as last week. No change.

Week 4 TALLY = Moving to -$100 net for now.  

Week 5 TALLY = Same as last week…-$100. I need Kyler to make a move to get me to the positive here.

 

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My NFL win total bets (Bovada)…

$600 (to win $990) on Denver OVER 8.0 wins this season (Bovada is giving three diff. win totals to bet with varying odds, so I’m taking this highest one on the board/greatest potential return).

Week 1 = I’m worried. I think 8 wins is reasonable, but I’ll go PUSH here right now.

Week 2 = That hurt. Shoulda won. I’m moving this to a LOSS now, but I think I can still get it even if they lose this week.

Week 3 = Played OK but lost again. I keep this as a LOSS, but if they can win this week I’d have some signs of life…but at the expense of my Jags bet.

Week 4 = Well, this one just died, I think. Chubb gone and 0-4. I am hopeful DEN wins their next two and starts to get up off the mat…but it doesn’t look good at all.

Week 5 = A sign of life…their first win. If they win this week, then it’s time to reevaluate. For now, count as a LOSS.

==========================

*$440 (to win $400) on the Jets UNDER 7.5 wins this season.*

Week 1 = Piece of cake. WIN PROJECTED +$400

Week 2 = In the bag.

Week 3 = In the bag.

Week 4 = So far, so good.

Week 5 = So far, so good…but an easy schedule 2nd-half. They still suck, though.

==========================

*$200 (to win $320) on Arizona OVER 6.0 wins this season.*

Week 1 = I feel better here, but I’ll say PUSH for now.

Week 2 = I feel good here, but I’ll move to a PUSH for now.

Week 3 = Starting to look shakier. I’ll go PUSH one more week, if they lose this week, I’ll move to the loss column.

Week 4 = I’ll put as a LOSS, but I like the next 3 weeks to get back into the chase.

Week 5 = Win #1 this week. If they beat ATL Week 6…then I think I put back into the PUSH or WIN column. I’ll count as a LOSS right now.

==========================

*$60 (to win $50) on Jacksonville OVER 8.0 wins this season.* **Love the Jags but hate the numbers this has become since Luck went out.

Week 1 = I lost most of my hope here with Foles going down, but the injury list for Week 2 looks terrible for a bounce back. I’m likely done here. -$60.

Week 2 = Had HOU beat and couldn’t convert the 2-point conversion. Looks like this one might be a loss, but I’ll say PUSH because I think they’ll win Week 3 and get back on track to win the division.

Week 3 = Like I said…a win last week and things will look brighter. They could lose this week and still be OK, but if they go to Denver and beat them – I am gaining confidence. I’m keeping as a PUSH for now.

Week 4 = Looking better and better. I think they are headed to 9+ wins still.

Week 5 = Man, they could be 3-2/4-1 right now. I still like this outlook. We see 8-9-10 wins still. I am counting as a WIN, because I think we’ll win it.

 

WEEK 2 TALLY: I’m netting -$200 in my estimation today.

WEEK 3 TALLY: Same as last week but looking darker/could be rough after Week 4.

WEEK 4 TALLY: I’m netting a -$340 loss

Week 5 TALLY: Same as last week.

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Week 1 Bets (all 10% vig)…

$80 on Denver (even) over Oakland (placed/wrote before AB went nuts this week) *LOST hardcore. -$88 on the loss.

$20 on Buffalo (+3.0) over the Jets *I snuck out with this one. WIN +$38

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 1: -$50

==========================

Week 2 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

 

$40 = PIT -3.5 over SEA (LOSS)

$10 = ARI +13.5 over BAL (WIN)

$10 = SF +1.0 over CIN (WIN)

$10 = IND +3.0 over TEN (WIN)

$10 = DET +2.0 over LAC (WIN)

$10 = ATL +1.5 over PHI (WIN)

$10 = NO +2.0 over LAR (LOSS)

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 2: -$10…five wins, two losses but they cancelled on amounts wagered -- leaving me losing the 10% vig. Damn Brees and Ben getting hurt!!!! Now, -$76 for the season here.

==========================

Week 3 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

 

$50 = ARI +2.5 (I played this right out of the gates before the line started moving the other way hard late in the week).

$30 = LAR -3.0 over CLE

$10 = CHI -4.0 over WAS

$10 = CAR +2.5 (when the line swung five points…I took a small hedge that I could land within the five points for a double dip)

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 3: (9-4 record ATS YTD) -$10 net this week (basically, all bets cancelled and lost the vig)…I have a great winning percentage but I keep losing my main bets and wiping out all the wins!!!

==========================

Week 4 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

 

$30 = KC -6.5 over DET (loss)

$30 = MIN +2.5 over CHI (loss)

$20 = OAK +7.0 over IND (win)

$10 = WAS +3.0 over NYG (loss)

$10 = NE -7.0 over BUF (loss)

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 4: (10-8 ATS YTD on games I played) -$70 with losses and vig. This week, and -$156 for the season on individual bets despite the winning record.

==========================

Week 5 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

 

$50 = MIN (-5.0) over NYG (win)

$20 = ARI (+3.0) over CIN (win)

$10 = GB (+3.5) over DAL (win)

$10 = SF (-3.5) over CLE (win)

$10 = NE (-15.5) over WAS (win)

$10 = DEN (+6.5) over LAC (win)

$10 = GB-DAL UNDER 47.5 (loss)

 

Total weekly bet accounting Week 5: (16-8 ATS YTD on games I played…67%!!!!) …I only went 6-0 on the game ATS bets this week, that’s all. Lost the stupid O/U, that I rarely play…and got beat. Never again…until the next hunch. Won $110 and lost $10 on the O/U bet and $11 on vigs…net +$89 this week.

 ============================

Week 6 Bets (all 10% vig/$100 must wager)…

$20 = NE (-17.0) over NYG (already, win)

$20 = KC (-4.0) over HOU

$20 = TEN (+2.0) over DEN

$10 = DAL (-7.0) over NYJ

$10 = LAR (-3.0) over SF

$10 = CLE (-1.5) over SEA

$10 = CAR (-2.0) over TB

=================================

 

Week 1 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 1 (projected + real) = +$3,274 profit or a 54.7% gain

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 3,007 so far…a 0.9% gain in our judgement period.

 

Week 2 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 2 (projected + real) = +$424 profit or a 7.1% gain projected.

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 2,992 so far…a 0.4% gain in our judgement period.

 

Week 4 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 4 (projected + real) = +$414 profit or a 6.9% gain projected.

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 2,962 so far…a -0.1% decline in our judgement period.

 

Week 4 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 4 (projected + real) = -$606 profit or a 10.1% loss projected.

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 2,952 so far…a -0.1% decline in our judgement period.

 

Week 5 = TOTAL ACCOUNTING AFTER WEEK 5 (projected + real) = -$517 profit or an -8.6% loss projected.

The S&P has gone from 2,979 to 2,970 so far…a -0.0% decline in our judgement period.

 

 

Good luck on all your betting this season!!



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>