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Daily Commentary 10/26 THU (7:41pmET *Proj. Updated)

Date:
October 26, 2017

*Notes as I see them/the mood strikes -- about football or otherwise. Updating throughout (latest time in title). Moving fast so forgive typos...

7:33pmET: Week 8 Projections updated. BAL-MIA H-Group chat posting by 7:45pm

2:25pmET: A quick note on Samaje Perine. I've got several questions about whether to keep/hold Perine anymore. I'd say this...

Here's what I think is going to happen: The Redskins run game is going to continue to flounder under Rob Kelley, and their season will start slide...eventually they'll work Perine in 'just because'. The more Kelley flounders the more pressure on Gruden. Perine moves in and starts gaining some traction. I think it happens over the next 2-3-4 weeks. Gruden doesn't want it to happen but it will be forced upon him by 'reality'. Gruden looks desperately for a change and maybe finds it. He'll never fully embrace Perine but when Samaje starts working better than Kelley...Gruden will say he knew it all along and 'they need to get the kid more touches'.

Now, I think this takes a few weeks and it is not predicated on Perine, because Gruden could give two $#!%& about Perine. He loves Kelley, but as Kelley flails away ruining this season -- Gruden is enough of a pragmatist to know he better try something, anything...and he starts letting Perine get a little more work until it becomes obvious in a 'lost' season. This theory could take 2-3-5+ weeks to pan out but it's coming because Rob Kelley is an abomination on NFL running backing.

Redraft = Drop/don't hold and let's wait until we see this 'thing' stirring and we'll try to time getting back in if needed. No reason to hold today.

Dynasty = Hold if you can. When this comes around, then you'll have a better vantage point to make a decision -- keep him or trade him when Gruden starts buying in verbally through the media...thus, getting fantasy GMs lit on him again.

In general, be patient here if your roster allows it but in redraft 12-team, 15-16 man rosters, I'm not really holding on to him. I'll take my chances elsewhere now and get back in later, and if not fine. Dynasty is trickier but he's definitely not untouchable or on the verge. Hold if you can and let this breathe a few weeks and then we'll see. If Rob Kelley has 85+ yards and a TD next week...the time line keeps getting pushed off. Everything about Perine is tied to Kelley flopping (or injury) to create/force an opportunity. You want Kelley failure and Redskins losses if you want Perine's stock to rise.

Morning Notes...

-- The White Hot Computer Picks ATS are posted (home page, scroll down a little)

-- Dont'a Hightower out for the season for NE is a giant dagger to their Super Bowl chances and DST rebound. All my Pats DST turnaround chatter...put it on ice for a few weeks/ROS. It also means NE has to plan to score 30+ a game to win...good the NE things offensive assets ahead. Elandon Roberts...it's time.

-- The Bills are looking to move OL Cordy Glenn because rookie Dion Dawkins has stepped in and been nice. Stone Cold Sean McDermott is not afraid to deal. I'm not sure it makes sense to hurt his depth but he also knows a player's work habits, etc. He must sense something on another sloppy Rex Ryan player. What NFL team desperately needs O-Line help and is the home of sloppy players? Seattle. See if a trade goes down soon.

-- Other players who might get traded before the deadline...Carlos Hyde. Joe Staley. DeSean Jackson. Dom. Rodgers-Cromartie. Mike Wallace.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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