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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Fantasy Football Metrics

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Daily Commentary 10/6 FRI...(11:51pmET *Proj. Updated)

October 6, 2017

*Daily notes as I see them/the mood strikes -- about football or otherwise. Updating throughout (latest time in title). Moving fast so forgive typos...

8:45pmET: You want the player to trade for, that his price may be down some, but if you can pay hyped up stuff to land him as a WR1.5 price, hopefully WR2 price -- Doug Baldwin. I'll explain why later but I think you want Doug Baldwin in sea of radical swings happening with WRs week to week. I will explain later, but what I see + the price I see -- this is your homework assignment. It won't be super easy or cheap, but stay cool, figure WR1.5/2.0 pricing and try to unload propped up 'hot' players for him.

7:55pmET: Oh my goodness!! I'm no longer alone!!! Someone in the media is stirring: I am just now listening to Colin Cowherd's show -- he's waking up to it, and he's usually first to notice my things...he's asking "Is Jameis Winston any good?" Cowherd is starting to realize what I've said since DAY ONE...and I'm the only one.

7:20pmET: Injuries catching my eye...

-- The Chiefs will be without OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif...that's a blow. Kareem Hunt wasn't as dominant on MNF missing LDT. It's no small matter. Not that anyone is benching Hunt.

-- SEA missing a starting corner (Lane) and Cliff Avril...I'm telling you the Rams are going to wallop the Seahawks this week, or that's what The Computer says and I'm following it.

-- C.J. Prosise doubtful, which means JD McKissic might have a real chance this week.

-- Ty Montgomery likely out, so I foresee a Williams-Jones split with Davante Mays seeing a few touches.

-- Dallas may be without two key OLs while GB may be getting theirs back...I'm not loving a bet on Dallas near as much as I was earlier this week.

2:02pmET: Can I please look at something on any site without a pop up video blaring out of nowhere for shampoo or a new movie or a new alcohol? I will quit this business before I put pop up ads on the website...unless it's really a lot of money then that's different. I'll just settle for no more unwanted clips from Matthew Berry's talk show every time I look up something on ESPN. They're trying to make him a hybrid of David Letterman/Pee Wee's Playhouse, but there's a little difficulty because he has no charisma or sense of comedic timing...other than that he's gold. They show the 'best of the week' from his show on Sunday mornings during the fantasy show pregame -- I have never come close to laughing or being intrigued what they're talking about in the one minute of gems they compiled. That 'best of' does the opposite of what I suspect they are intending.

11:35amET: Re-watched the SF-ARI game this morning. Wow. My notes on Trent Taylor from earlier this week...believe them. I'm not sure a 12-team/15-man roster is ready for Taylor yet...maybe. But he was subtly unreal vs. Tyrann Mathieu. I don't know that he'll get enough volume for sure, but I think it's coming...I think he might push Pierre Garcon for catches and yards week-to-week...I think it's about to happen. Not 100% sure, but I feel my Spidey Senses tingling...a legit WR3 in PPR. A guy who will be a fixture for the new QB next year.

11:11amET: Paul Perkins out vs. LAC...it makes me fear my predicted LAC upset of NYG. Ben McAdoo likes to cede the 1st half to the opponents running Paul Perkins nowhere, now he might actually use RBs that create positive things?

For fantasy, you think it clears a path for Wayne Gallman but I bet it opens up a path for an Orleans Darkwa/Shane Vereen split (if Darkwa active)...a fantasy useless one. The team worked on Darkwa-Vereen as a tandem late in the preseason and in the 2nd half of games. Gallman rising up on because Darkwa was inactive. If Darkwa active...I'll take Corey Clement for more touches over Wayne Gallman Week 5. Just a hunch.

9:45amET: First thing morning notes...

-- Wendell Smallwood likely out, it's being reported, so that Corey Clement note from yesterday is even more important. More on that in about an hour with the LAC-PHI recap. Clement might be a mini-shock performer for Week 5.

-- Week 5 Projections update will post later tonight after the official injury reports are in...anywhere from 8pm-midnight ET

-- The remaining Week 4 recaps (PHI-LAC, SF-ARI, PIT-BAL) and TNF Pats v. Bucs recaps and analysis will post mostly today, one will probably fall into tomorrow am.

This next section just for FYI because I get a few questions on it from folks, especially new readers...

Note...it's about a 3-hour process for me to bring a/my game recap to life, and that's with me rushing. To re-watch the game for study purposes, take the notes, examine the box score...in relation to the entire year's output trends, then figure out how I'm going to write it all up in 1-2K+ words is not easy. The more I rush (because the end of the week closes in), the more likely I am to miss a trend and hidden thing. I need time to watch, ponder and digest...and then explain.

3 hours x 16 games = 48 hours a week. That's a solid 48 hours, no fluff. Consider, I watch the games live too...MNF+TNF=SNF = 12 hours of my life, and Sunday games are 1-8pm, if not London games making it 9am-8pm. 18-25 hours of live watching + 48 hours of re-watching/studying/writing = 70+ hours...and we haven't gotten into all the other articles, notes, data input study, sleep, eat, emails, etc. I pump them out as fast as I can, but the faster I go the more likely I miss something...so I try to balance that. If you wonder why 2-3 game recaps a day and they stretch out over the entire week...this is why.

I figure I work about 90 hours a week, solid during the season, and sleep about 45 hours...leaving about 30 +/- hours, about 4 hours on average a day for 'life' and 'food'. It's a daunting/committed/insane task but I feel that's what it takes to be great at this...and I still need more time every week. I dictate articles in the car, in the bathroom, at the dog park. I type article notes and watch games in dentist and chiropractor office waiting rooms or wherever I am stuck (weekly chiropractor from sitting at a computer all day and typing 100,000+ words a month). Shopping with my wife on a Saturday morning 'get out of the house'...if it's 'her store', I am sitting in a chair or on a bench reading/watching football. I say this not for pity, envy, or anything else other than -- being good at this, it takes a lot of time. I can't outsource game coverage...because 'I'm the deal'. What I see is the product. That doesn't mean other people aren't good at football study and you shouldn't take in other sources -- but I am falling down on my own job if I don't watch/observe/study everything. I can't take people's word for it and be the best at what I do. I have to till the soil with my own hands or I'm out of touch fast. I take my job as your eyes and ears very seriously -- you go enjoy life and I'll watch all this for you and give you the critical notes. You live like an executive...that's what good team owners do.

So, keep that in mind on the flow of info produced and any typos or grammar errors. I have great people who volunteer to look at the work and make corrections when they can, but they have lives too. When I get behind I'm publishing before they can even see it. I choose speed, quantity over creating literary masterpieces. We do the best we can to make it readable -- but I'd rather you have the info about football then lose sleep over the right 'there, their, and they're' placement. I dictate some articles and then edit after with software and my eyes, and sometimes the 'sounds alike' word stays in error because I don't catch it. Why my phone hears 'offense of' for 'offensive' is going to be the death of me. Siri also hates 'Trubisky', 'Garappolo', 'Darkwa', 'Tyreek', and 'Tarik' among other names. What it thinks it hears with these names is laughable...and somehow different every other sentence.

I only meant this to be a two sentence explanation but you see what happened -- another reason why things I do takes so long. But it's part of the charm, no?

I just wrote all the above without double checking it to save time. Hopefully it makes sense.


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>