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Fantasy Football Metrics

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Daily Commentary 11/10 FRI (11:59pmET)

November 10, 2017

11:58pmET: Week 10 projections update. Next one Sunday around noon ET.

8:02pmET: I ate at a 'open' cafeteria at a Ohio University today...the first time ever in my life I've eaten at such a place. I went to three schools (for cost savings) transferring my credits up to my degree place, and never stepped foot in the eating facility. I worked full-time, went to school and lived at home...and paid my way. If I had known how sweet that was to have a buffet the next building next to my dorm...I would have been in heaven...and weighed twice as much as when I arrived, no doubt.

I had scrambled eggs, sausage, hash browns, sausage gravy and a side of pizza for dinner. That's living!!!

I love the kid we talked to who complained that the ice cream bar in his residence hall wasn't as good as the one in some other residence hall.

Life is hard.

Now back to football, and earning a proper living...gambling on it...

Things I saw off the injury reports that changed The Computer some with handicapping projections:

-- SF LT Joe Staley back to face NYG is another small ding to a Best bet candidate. The Computer says Giants -7.0, and C.J. Beathard is starting which is good for the NYG bettors like me.

-- The Computer is getting a stronger feeling about a Buffalo cover/win because LT Terron Armstead and Kenny Vaccaro are sketchy to play. However, the weather report is shifting off of rain in Buffalo. Just cold. Too close to call for The Computer. It won't touch it.

-- T.Y. Hilton possibly out/limited...The Computer thinks the Steelers -10.0 is the Best bet of the week now. Not mega-strong, but strong.

-- The Computer line for DAL-ATL, right now...exactly 0.0/no favorite. The first time I've seen that all year. DAL LT Tyron Smith in or out will be the difference.

1:24pmET: Listening to Colin Cowherd push the Dak Prescott might get exposed because of now Ezekiel Elliott theory is shocking and intriguing to me. There's FF opportunity here on this. Follow the logic...

Everyone in the media believes Dak Prescott is a fraud, secretly. They pay him some lip-service, but deep down they want him to fail, they need him to fail. They've bet against him every step of the way. he's making their Jameis Winston love look bad, and whoever else they've pushed and been wrong on. Dak also plays for Dallas, and THEY all reside in the northeast or far west, by and large, and this hate Cowboys things, typically.

THEY have sided with the running back in this situation. All of this only makes sense, not because Dak is talented...but because Ezekiel Elliott is the real star, the real talent. They've sides with the most useless/overrated position in football...and Bill Belichick knows it; look how he runs his team for years. They've oddly sided with the assaulter of women (allegedly). All this so they can be proven right on Dak. Last year, they called for his downfall every week. This preseason it was 'Sophomore slump'. Now, it's 'Well, without Elliott..."

No matter what Dak does, short of 400+ yards passing and 4+ TDs this week...the story is pre-written. Dak is not this good, and Elliott makes him.

This is going to offer up another buying opportunity next week on cheap Dak. The ESPN and NFL Network sycophants all follow the same logic, which is why Dak has been undervalued in fantasy for two years now. If Dak loses this week or has a mediocre game...'See, I told you so' will be shouted from the rooftops and you should be a buyer then...or now if the pre-fear it...and they do.

Even if Dak plays well without Elliott...it will be 'because of the defense' or the O-Line.

Buy Dak stock into all of this. He's a special QB talent...and when they put receiving weapons around him 2018+...watch out.

Morning Notes...

-- Zay Jones out for Sunday. No reason for the Bills to push him in a sloppy weather game with his knee. He's not an impact player. Just derails his momentum.

-- Richard Sherman is done for the year, which you knew if you watched the game. I didn't think Seattle was going anywhere this year anyway...but this clinches it. Also, note...Seattle still cannot run the ball and their defense is falling apart -- Russell Wilson is going to be the #1 QB for fantasy for the ROS.

-- Washington worked out several RB free agents yesterday. Watch out that Rob Kelley is about to go on IR...and that Samaje Perine is about to get opportunity #37 to take this job...and that whomever they sign might get a chance with another Perine fumble.

The two RB names that stuck out to me among the tryouts: Kapri Bibbs and Denard Robinson.

It could be that Gruden would do us all a favor and cut Perine, but that's highly doubtful.

Today Agenda...

-- Week 10 Projections update will be closer to Midnight ET give or take.

Taking the afternoon off for a college visit with my son. He was rejected twice for a state university for acceptance in their Media program, but he worked hard to get good grades at their regional/local campus and just found out he's been accepted. After much rejoicing over this news...now, reality sets in -- a mid-school year transfer is a confusing mess. Housing rules, classes he has to take as an 'intro' that he must take now in order to be able to take other classes, etc. What a mess of a system to figure out. We're going to figure it out, hopefully, this afternoon on campus. Hopefully, his counselor plays fantasy football.

-- Final Week 9 game analysis (TB-NO) will post today and last night's TNF game analysis will post early morning Saturday.

SIDE NOTE: If you see the TNF guys who've already played in any given week 'changing' in our projections on Friday and Sunday...we're not trying re-write history.

I don't want to remove them so you can see their projections ahead if you need them.

Also, as their projections ahead change in our system (like SEA defense with no Sherman) or their opponent on TNF has changes...it's done to affect all the weeks ahead, but it also changes current week. It takes extra time to freeze the TNF guy's projections in our system, and you're obviously not using them Sunday/Monday...so the changes are irrelevant to Sunday.

So, I just wanted to note that so you didn't think we were cheating. We're constantly changing with the data and I don't want them to disappear from view so you can see all the extended data. FYI


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>